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Internet Message Format
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2001-02-11
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52KB
From: Jeff Salisbury <jeff.salisbury@xmission.com>
Subject: [effortless] 60 Minutes story on Wall Street Analysts...
Date: 01 Feb 2001 07:56:29 -0700
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------5AF2242CE2852B5F200C83B2
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Hi Everyone,
Just this morning, a friend emailed me a link to the 60 Minutes
transcripts of the story that was mentioned during our conference call.
It's going in my files and thought you may want it too...
Jeff
http://cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,267200-412,00.shtml
--------------5AF2242CE2852B5F200C83B2
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<b>"I couldn't get up in the morning and look in the mirror and know
that I just caused somebody to lose 50 percent of their retirement money
because I exaggerated and lied."</b><br><font size=-2>Tom Brown, former
banking analyst for Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette
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<A HREF="
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<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,238865-412,00.shtml">Gold Rush</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,247812-412,00.shtml">Pets.com Put To Sleep</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,253919-412,00.shtml">Defunct Pets.com Donates Dog
Food</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,238746-412,00.shtml">Priceline Runs Out of Gas,
Groceries </A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,235342-412,00.shtml">Priceline Stock Sinks On
Story </A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,41009-412,00.shtml">IPO Report: Priceline.com
Soars</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,235038-412,00.shtml">The Price May Be Right</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,30965-412,00.shtml">Nerd Of The Amazon</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,219132-412,00.shtml">Amazon Running Dry?</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,252039-412,00.shtml">Amazon.com Crashes
Briefly</A>
<br>
<br>
<A HREF="/now/story/0,1597,260467-412,00.shtml">Wall Street Closes Out 'An
Ugly Year'</A>
<br>
<br>
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<LI><A HREF="http://www.cisco.com/"
target="new_window">Cisco Systems</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/subst/home/home.html/107-4128089-7494955"
target="new_window">Amazon.com</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={E6F6EC17-BA7E-4F78-9846-F67DF144AE13
}&source=htx/ht" target="new_window"><b>CBS MarketWatch.com:</b> Year 2000
hall of shame awards</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsroom.htx"
target="new_window">CBS MarketWatch.com</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="
http://www.technologypartners.com/html/lise_buyer.html"
target="new_window">Lise Buyer</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="http://www.msdw.com/"
target="new_window">Morgan Stanley Dean Witter</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="http://www.sec.gov/" target="new_window">U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="http://www.ml.com/" target="new_window">Merrill
Lynch</A><br>
<br>
<LI><A HREF="http://www.dlj.com/"
target="new_window">Donaldson, Lufkin, & Jenrette</A><br>
<br>
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<b class=leadStoryGray>Wall Street Prophets</b>
<!-- br tags here -->
<br>
<i class=smallGray>
<li>Public Unaware Of Conflict Of Interest For Stock Analysts </li>
<li>Their Wall Street Firms Often Take Companies Public</li>
<li>And Have Stake In Very Firms They Report On</li>
<br>
<br>
</i>
<font color=000000 face="verdana, helvetica, sans" class="storytext">
<span class=inside>Jan. 30, 2001<br></span>
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<b>(CBS)</b> If you're like many people you lost a lot of money in the stock
market lately whether you traded yourself or just watched your 401(k)
dwindle.
<br>
<br>A lot of that money was lost following the advice of Wall Street stock
analysts, the experts who work for big brokerage houses. Think of them as
the prophets of Wall Street. They analyze a company, look into the future
and recommend whether to buy the stock.
<br>
<br> So how did so many get it wrong? Many investors don't realize that some
high-profile analysts and their firms stood to make a fortune on stocks they
recommended. A lot of their advice was tailored to make them rich, not you,
as <b>Correspondent Scott Pelley</b> reports.
<br>
<br> <b>"I don't know frankly how some of these analysts live with
themselves,"</b> says former analyst Tom Brown. <b>"I couldn't get up in the
morning and look in the mirror and know that I just caused somebody to lose
50 percent of their retirement money because I exaggerated and lied. And
that's exactly what I saw at DLJ."</b>
<br>
<br> Forty-two-year-old Brown worked at the Wall Street firm Donaldson,
Lufkin & Jenrette for seven years. He was a top banking analyst with a
reputation for blunt honesty. Brown says he recalls a DLJ meeting where an
analyst explained their job was to make the stocks they represented look
good.
<br>
<br><b>"The line was, 'You have to understand; forgive me, Father, for I
have sinned,'"</b> Brown says. <b>"You were going to have to go back to the
sales force after having lied to them and tell them that you were
wrong."</b>
<br>
<br>If there is pressure to lie, it stems from a very simple conflict of
interest. Wall Street's brokerage houses make 70 percent of their profits
from what's called investment banking: raising money for companies that
need cash.
<br>
<br>For example, when Amazon needs money, it goes to its broker, Merrill
Lynch. And Merrill Lynch offers Amazon stock for sale.
<br>
<br>The higher the price, the more the brokerage makes. Now imagine what
the analyst is going to tell the public about stock his or her firm wants to
sell.
<br>
<br> <b>"They really are cheerleaders,"</b> Brown says, noting even if
analysts cover a company that's not a client of the firm, it could be a
potential client. <b>"So the investment banking group wants you to be
wildly bullish about everybody."</b>
<br>
<br>So if there's bad news about a stock, you're not likely to hear it from
the analysts. A 1999 study from Dartmouth College and Cornell University
says analysts showed <b>"significant evidence of bias"</b> when they
recommend stocks handled by their firm. The study points to an internal
company memo from brokerage house Morgan Stanley that tells analysts,
<b>"We do not make negative or controversial comments about our
clients."</b> Morgan has disavowed that memo.
<br>
<br>Recently, though, Morgan Stanley made millions in fees raising money for
Priceline. Morgan's analyst, Mary Meeker, recommended buying Priceline's
stock at $134 a share.
<br>
<br>When it fell to $78, she repeated her buy recommendation. And she kept
recommending Priceline as it fell to less than $3.
<br>
<br><table align="left" width=181 border="0" cellpadding="1"
cellspacing="0"><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><table
align="left" width="175" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tr
bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccc99"><td
align="center"> <font face="verdana,arial,helvetica" size=1
color="#000000">Priceline Today</font></td></tr><tr
bgcolor="#cccc99"><td><table width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffcc" cellpadding="10"
cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td><font face="verdana,arial,helvetica"
size="1" color="#000000" class="inset" >What's Priceline stock worth today?
Check its price at <a href=
http://www2.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.asp?TICKER=PCLN&TABLES=table&SOURCE=htx/http2_mw&dist=newsq&slug=squote
target="external">CBS
Marketwatch.com.</a><br></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>
<br>Are analysts free to be critical of clients of their firms?
<br>
<br> <b>"I don't think analysts are so free since I was fired for being
critical of, not only clients, but potential clients,"</b> Brown says.
<br>
<br>Brown was very critical <b>"in the 1995 to 1998 time frame of the
mergers and acquisitions activity that was taking place among the largest
banks,"</b> he says.
<br>
<br> <b>"I frankly thought they were paying too much and that they were
using unrealistic assumptions and that shareholders were going to be
hurt,"</b> he declares.
<br>
<br>Brown says he was fired because those banks he criticized stopped doing
business with DLJ. The company told <b><I>60 Minutes II</I></b> that Brown
was fired because of <b>"his persistent inability to operate effectively
within a team infrastructure."</b> DLJ insisted there is a separation
between investment banking and analysts, and said its analysts are
encouraged to be candid.
<br>
<br>Brokerage firms say analysts disclose their conflicts of interest in
every research report they write. (It's those paragraphs of small print, at
the bottom of the page.) Disclosures like these are not good enough for
Arthur Levitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, in
charge of enforcing the law on Wall Street.
<br>
<br><b>"I think the analyst has a responsibility to reveal a conflict of
interest. And that's something that the commission is urging upon the stock
exchange...to see to it that their rules are changed in a way which will
force the analysts to reveal conflicts,"</b> Levitt says.
<br>
<br> <b>"There's got to be much greater disclosure of the kinds of conflicts
that are part of today's market."</b> Adds Levitt: <b>"I'd say it's less
than moral."</b>
<br>
<br><table align="right" width=181 border="0" cellpadding="1"
cellspacing="0"><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><table
align="right" width="175" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tr
bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccc99"><td
align="center"> <font face="verdana,arial,helvetica" size=1
color="#000000"><b>Discuss Disclosure </b></font></td></tr><tr
bgcolor="#cccc99"><td><table width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffcc" cellpadding="10"
cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td><font face="verdana,arial,helvetica"
size="1" color="#000000" class="inset" >Should the federal government
require more disclosure by stock analysts of conflicts of interest? Express
your view on <b><a href=http://www.delphi.com/cbs60mins2/messages?msg=2.1
target="external"><i><b>60 Minutes II</i></b>'s message
boards.</a><br></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>
<br>One result of these conflicts was the inflation of so-called target
prices, analysts' predictions of how high a stock would go. In the wildly
speculative Internet market, analysts set inflated targets with no
connection to a company's real worth.
<br>
<br> The setting of target prices has <b>"been a practice as long as we've
had analysts,"</b> Levitt says. <b>"If investors are prepared to take that
at face value, they have to be prepared for the consequences,"</b> Levitt
says.
<br>
<br>For example Amazon was selling for about $275 a share when a
little-known analyst, Henry Blodgett, predicted it would go to $400 - even
though Amazon had never made a profit. Amazon did go to $400 and beyond.
<br>
<br>Amazon's backer, Merrill Lynch, responded by replacing its pessimistic
Amazon analyst. His replacement? Henry Blodgett. While this was great for
Blodgett, it proved not so good for investors, many of whom got soaked when
Amazon's value fell 75 percent.
<br>
<br>Blodgett has said his prediction was based on sound analysis using new
ways to measure a company's performance. Wall Street coined a new verb: to
"blodgett" a stock.
<br>
<br>Former Internet analyst Lise Buyer says experienced hands on Wall Street
couldn't make sense of soaring target prices.
<br>
<br> <b>"Those of us who've been in the business for a while looked at the
wild targets that people were putting out there, and our jaws dropped,"</b>
says Buyer. <b>"And then we watched the stocks follow suit."</b>
<br>
<br><table align="left" width=181 border="0" cellpadding="1"
cellspacing="0"><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><table
align="left" width="175" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tr
bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccc99"><td
align="center"> <font face="verdana,arial,helvetica" size=1
color="#000000">Tracking Amazon</font></td></tr><tr
bgcolor="#cccc99"><td><table width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffcc" cellpadding="10"
cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td><font face="verdana,arial,helvetica"
size="1" color="#000000" class="inset"> Read how <a
href=/now/story/0,1597,268194-412,00.shtml> Amazon to Slash 1,300 Jobs</a>
and <a href=
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/amzn.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
target=external"><b>CBS MarketWatch</b>'s report</a>.
<br>
<br> Check Amazon's stock price at <a href=
http://www2.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.asp?source=htx/http2_mw&symb=AMZN
target="external">CBS
Marketwatch.com.</a><br></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>
<br> <b>"The market that we had over the past couple of years: Amazon went
to 400 because Henry said it would,"</b> Buyer says. <b>"It was analysts
proclaiming what the stock would do, not analyzing what the businesses said
they would do."</b>
<br>
<br> One of the differences during the latest stock market frenzy was the
success of cable business channels. The shows needed guests; so the
analysts became TV stars.
<br>
<br>Many appear on CNBC's <I>Squawk Box</i>, hosted by Mark Haines. After
a stock was recommended by a guest, he says, <b>"I'd look down at the quote
machine, and all of a sudden it had jumped five bucks or 10 bucks."</b>
<br>
<br>Thousands, new to investing, were watching the analysts with no idea
that a conflict of interest might exist on the stocks they were
recommending. CNBC now requires its guests reveal conflicts of interest
before they appear.
<br>
<br> <b>"When CNBC started 10 years ago, it had a relatively small audience
that was almost entirely professional,"</b> Haines says. <b>"There was no
need to point out these relationships because our viewers knew about
them."</b>
<br>
<br> <b>"As the audience broadened, more and more and more people were
coming to this not knowing the rules,"</b> he says.
<br>
<br>One of the rules that many analysts live by is never say "sell," because
that would drive down the price of the stock. Currently there are about
8,000 analyst stock recommendations, according to Zacks Investment Research,
and only 29 sells. That's less than one half of 1 percent.
<br>
<br><table align="left" width=181 border="0" cellpadding="1"
cellspacing="0"><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><table
align="left" width="175" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"> <tr
bgcolor="#ffffff"><td bgcolor="#ffffff"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccc99"><td
align="center"> <font face="verdana,arial,helvetica" size=1
color="#000000">Ratings Changes</font></td></tr><tr
bgcolor="#cccc99"><td><table width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffcc" cellpadding="10"
cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td><font face="verdana,arial,helvetica"
size="1" color="#000000" class="inset" >Visit <a href=
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/ratings.asp target="external"><b>CBS
MarketWatch.com</a></b>'s column on the latest analyst ratings changes.
<br>
<br>And see its regular column, <a href=
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/ratingsgame.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
target="external">The Ratings
Game</a></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>
<br> <b>"You rarely see sell,"</b> Buyer says. <b>"It angers management;
it doesn't help institutional investing clients....So what you say is,
'We're downgrading this to a 'hold' and believe it promising for those with
a three- to five-year investment horizon,' which, for those in the know,
means, 'See ya.'"</b>
<br>
<br>Not even a company's imminent collapse could force analysts to say sell.
Much of Pets.com's financing was raised by Merrill Lynch. Merrill made
millions. Merrill's analyst Henry Blodgett made a buy recommendation at
$16. When it fell to $7, Blodgett said "buy" again. Again a "buy" at $2
and again at $1.69. When it hit $1.43 a share, Blodgett told investors to
"accumulate." Pets.com was recently kicked off the stock exchange.
<br>
<br>Investors may have lost a fortune, but last year Blodgett and Meeker
were paid about $15 million each. Both analysts declined requests for
interviews.
<br>
<br>Merrill Lynch, Blodgett's firm, did send <b><I>60 Minutes II</I></b> an
email saying its analysts <b>"make independent recommendations based upon
their best judgments."</b>
<br>
<br>Mary Meeker at Morgan Stanley sent a statement saying, in part, <b>"We
maintain a strict separation of the (investment) banking and research
functions within the firm. Our research is objective and has a long-term
focus."</b>
<br>
<br>Buyer, the former Internet analyst, defends most of her former
colleagues. She says some analysts work for firms without investment banking
clients, and others can take the heat.
<br>
<br> Haines notes, however, that investors ignored warnings before the
Nasdaq's dramatic drop, even when there were clear indications a company
was vulnerable.
<br>
<br> <b>"We would invite on the CEOs, and we would interview them, and we
would say, 'Do you have any patents?' And they would say 'No.' 'Well, would
it be hard for me to go into business to compete with you?' And they'd say
'no,'"</b> Haines says.
<br>
<br><b>"'Do you have any cash?' 'No.' And I'd look down, and the stock would
be up $40,"</b> observes Haines.
<br>
<br><b>"You would point out the risks; you would point out how crazy it was.
There was a mania going on out there where people were just throwing
money,"</b> Haines adds.
<br>
<br>And Haines says investors didn't seem to listen when he pointed out
analysts' conflicts of interest on the air. <b>"It was put in their face,
and they pulled the lever on the slot machine anyway."</b>
<br>
<br>Last year Tom Brown started his own investment company. He decided to
leave the analyst game because there's too much pressure to be dishonest, he
says. DLJ offered him the usual severance deal, but he rejected it because
it required him to keep quiet.
<br>
<br> <b>"DLJ offered me $400,000 to not say anything,"</b> Brown says.
<b>"And I decided in August of '98 that it was worth more for my pride to be
able to shout it from the mountaintop that something was wrong, and tell
them to keep the $400,000."</b>
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Njoythjrny@aol.com
Subject: [effortless] (no subject)
Date: 12 Feb 2001 16:48:33 EST
--part1_13.115829b4.27b9b431_boundary
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
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DO NOT OPEN anna kournikova.jpg. I just got it from Moeller - it is a bad
VIRUS
Mark S Singer CFP
President
Safe Harbor Retirement Planning, Inc.
152 The Lynnway, Lynn, MA 01902
ph (781) 599-2660
fax (781) 592-1140
--part1_13.115829b4.27b9b431_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>DO NOT OPEN anna kournikova.jpg. I just got it from Moeller - it is a bad
<BR>VIRUS
<BR>
<BR>Mark S Singer CFP
<BR>President
<BR>Safe Harbor Retirement Planning, Inc.
<BR>152 The Lynnway, Lynn, MA 01902
<BR>ph (781) 599-2660
<BR>fax (781) 592-1140</FONT></HTML>
--part1_13.115829b4.27b9b431_boundary--
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