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canslim-digest         Thursday, April 6 2000         Volume 02 : Number 867



In this issue:

       [CANSLIM] PLMD
       RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD
       [CANSLIM] Additional Buy candidates
       RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD
       RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD
       RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC
       Re: [CANSLIM] CMGI, WORK
       [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR
       RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC
       [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
       RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD
       Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
       Re: [CANSLIM] PLMD
       Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
       Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
       Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
       Re: [CANSLIM] WON on selling short
       Re: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up
       [CANSLIM] Look at SAWS and TTN
       Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
       Re: [CANSLIM] Look at SAWS and TTN (Never Mind)
       RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC
       Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength - Charting Groups

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 18:37:48 -0700 (PDT)
From: travis bolster <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD

I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD.  I
think the ratings are (96/94 ABA).  They sell diabetes
equipment through the mail and other medical supplies.

Travis Bolster

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com

- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 20:34:31 -0600
From: "Dan Sutton" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD

Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting for a buy signal.

Things I like about it:
4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 quarters
14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases over year ago comparable
ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you look at)
Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to the 5 year growth rate
Only about 10 million shares in Float
Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 being the best, 5 being
the worst)
Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the projected price target is
about $76
Good EPS Rank

Things I don't like:
Over 65% Institutionally owned
Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate
Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate
The support level looks to be in the $45 range

I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to high $40's





- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of travis bolster
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM
To: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD


I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD.  I
think the ratings are (96/94 ABA).  They sell diabetes
equipment through the mail and other medical supplies.

Travis Bolster

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com

- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 20:40:31 -0600
From: "Dan Sutton" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Additional Buy candidates

Here are a few more candidates:

ZOMX Buy at tomorrows open at around $55. Target price $72

ORCL Buy at tomorrows open at around $78. Target price $93

LHSG Buy at tomorrows open at around $38. Target price $48

IKOS Buy at tomorrows open at around $11. Target price $19

ENE Buy at tomorrows open at around $66. Target price $80


- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 19:52:13 -0700 (PDT)
From: travis bolster <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD

Dan, great info just curious about why the
institutional holdings bother you?  Also, why would
you want to buy in the 40's when its off its 52 week
high?

Travis

- --- Dan Sutton <[e-mail]> wrote:
> Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting
> for a buy signal.
>
> Things I like about it:
> 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4
> quarters
> 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases
> over year ago comparable
> ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you
> look at)
> Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to
> the 5 year growth rate
> Only about 10 million shares in Float
> Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1
> being the best, 5 being
> the worst)
> Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the
> projected price target is
> about $76
> Good EPS Rank
>
> Things I don't like:
> Over 65% Institutionally owned
> Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5
> year growth rate
> Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to
> the 5 year growth rate
> The support level looks to be in the $45 range
>
> I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to
> high $40's
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [e-mail]
> [mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf
> Of travis bolster
> Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD
>
>
> I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD.  I
> think the ratings are (96/94 ABA).  They sell
> diabetes
> equipment through the mail and other medical
> supplies.
>
> Travis Bolster
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
> http://im.yahoo.com
>
> -
>
>
>
> -
>
>

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com

- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 23:37:01 -0400
From: Surindra Singh <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD

CYTC is another candidate with good canslim characters. Any comments Dan?

Surindra Singh

- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of Dan Sutton
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:35 PM
To: [e-mail]
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD


Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting for a buy signal.

Things I like about it:
4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4 quarters
14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases over year ago comparable
ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you look at)
Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to the 5 year growth rate
Only about 10 million shares in Float
Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1 being the best, 5 being
the worst)
Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the projected price target is
about $76
Good EPS Rank

Things I don't like:
Over 65% Institutionally owned
Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate
Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to the 5 year growth rate
The support level looks to be in the $45 range

I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to high $40's





- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of travis bolster
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM
To: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD


I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD.  I
think the ratings are (96/94 ABA).  They sell diabetes
equipment through the mail and other medical supplies.

Travis Bolster

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com

- -



- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 22:00:47 -0600
From: "Dan Sutton" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC

CYTC didn't hit on any of the scans that I run on Saturdays. I just looked
at it in Quotes Plus and it appears like the EPS info is the reason why. The
QP2 data shows the EPS info to be N/A from June of 99 all the way back
through March of 95. The N/A would have kept it from being found in any of
my scans.

The positives (according to QP2):
EPS Rank of 99
Rs rank of 94
Float of 24 million shares
Projected EPS growth rate of 275% (although that is only 8 cents per share)
Strong revenue growth rate
Zacks recommendation of 1.9
Looks like it is resting right about at it's 50 day moving average
Had a good move up today

The negatives:
Institutional ownership at 95%
Cash flow per share    minus .74
Return on equity of 3.86

Without digging for all the info, there just isn't enough provided by QP2
for my spreadsheet to slice it and dice it the way I like to. And without
that info I'm not tempted to buy it.

Sorry

- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of Surindra Singh
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 9:37 PM
To: [e-mail]
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD


CYTC is another candidate with good canslim characters. Any comments Dan?

Surindra Singh


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 00:08:50 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMGI, WORK

Hi Brian,

I agree with you on CMGI, but on WORK not so sure it has
broken down. Seems like it's trying to hold the base around
23, so a tight consolidation could set up another attempt at
a breakout. However, current U/D ratio is only 0.8, not
strong, and I note debt (just refinanced 3/00) is extremely
high, so this could be costly.

Tom Worley
[e-mail]
chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html


- ----- Original Message -----
From: Brian Bellamy <[e-mail]>
To: <[e-mail]>
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 11:10 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CMGI, WORK


Both bases for CMGI and WORK appear to have broken down with
the sell
off of the NASDQ. I would like to see a long tight
consolidation now
before investing in these stock. My reason for including
CMGI was that
it despite the earnings, revenues have been increasing
dramatically and
much of the earnings depression may be attributable to
investment by the
company which may lead to future earnings and sales growth.
With a good
base and accelerating earnings, I considered CMGI a
reasonable internet
play. WORK, I was watching because of the 99 EPS, what was a
fairly
tight and long base, and the possibility that the group
would be a
leader when the next bull run begins. I admit that now the
group appears
to be weak. And, I would not consider the industry one with
huge
long-term prospects, but in the short term the group could
come into
favor.

Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 09:10:47 -0600
From: Earl Setser <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Brian Bellamy

Well, you have a nice list with many of the recent leaders
included.  I
think I've been watching most of the stocks on your list to
some extent
except for CMGI and WORK.  CMGI is a stock I profited on
some time back
(pre-CANSLIM), but it only has a 12 EPS rating, so it
doesn't pass on
this
test.  WORK on the other hand has nice CANSLIM numbers at
99/85/CAB.  I
haven't seen it since I only look at A ranked Industry
Groups, but it
looks
good otherwise. The group it's in is Commercial
Services-Printing.  This

group is ranked 93, but seems to be moving down (was 68 6
months ago).
What is your CANSLIM reasoning on these two stocks?

At 12:59 AM 4/4/00 -0400, you wrote:
>Hello all, I've been lurking and learning for a year or two
now. Thanks

>to this forum I have become much more profitable in my
investing over
>the past year. Of course, the huge run of the NASDQ helped.
I will
>attempt to begin contributing as I have thoughts. I am now
watching
>several stocks hoping that they will form nice, long, tight
bases
during
>this tech correction. I see XLNX, AMCC, BBRC, CMGI, DITC,
JDSU, ORCL,
>PRLX, QCOM, SDLI, SNDK, SMTC, and WORK (really) as my
strongest
>candidates for future buys when they are done
consolidating. Also, did
>anyone buy or consider buying AMK on the breakout on
4/3/00. Any
>comments, additions, or subtractions, to/from this watch
list would be
>appreciated.
>
>Yours truly,
>Brian Bellamy


- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 07:28:19 -0500
From: "Charles Dille" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Your Ideas on SLR

I have been following SLR for about 30 days and am long at 42 3/16

I would like any input from some of the " old hands " here about this choice

Thanks, Charlie


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 08:24:02 -0600
From: "Wahl, Patrick" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC

Does QP2 have an EPS rank?  I haven't seen it before.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Dan Sutton [mailto:[e-mail]]
> Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:01 PM
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC

> The positives (according to QP2):
> EPS Rank of 99
> Rs rank of 94
> Float of 24 million shares
> Projected EPS growth rate of 275% (although that is only 8
> cents per share)
> Strong revenue growth rate
> Zacks recommendation of 1.9
> Looks like it is resting right about at it's 50 day moving average
> Had a good move up today

- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 06 Apr 2000 08:43:44 -0600
From: Earl Setser <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength

Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again.  (I think
Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that
point.)  Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry
Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest?  Here are a few possibilities I'm
considering.  I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3.

1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months.  (I question this since
this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the
new leaders will be.)

2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs.  IBD lists the
YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top
groups based on that number.  (I think this might be a better approach than
number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.)

3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March.  I
could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of
the peak and calculating the performance since the peak.  (I wonder if this
is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe
to use??)

Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak?
I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups).

Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why?  Thanks for
you opinions and suggestions in advance.


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 21:09:51 -0600
From: "Dan Sutton" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD

The institutional ownership percentage is not something that would make me
NOT buy the stock. But, generally speaking the lower the institutionl
ownership, the faster the stock will move up as institutions jump into it.

One of the reasons I seldom post here, is because I do not normally
subscribe to all of the caveats of CANSLIM. One of the elements I struggle
with is identifying the Cup and Handle signal. The buy signal I always use
is based on the Stochastic RSI action, and that particular signal rarely
occurs when the stock is above 90% of it's 52 week high. However I feel that
if the stock is fundamentally strong and still posseses all of the other
CANSLIM elements, then the buy signal is simply a matter of personal choice.

- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of travis bolster
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 8:52 PM
To: [e-mail]
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD

Dan, great info just curious about why the
institutional holdings bother you?  Also, why would
you want to buy in the 40's when its off its 52 week
high?

Travis

- --- Dan Sutton <[e-mail]> wrote:
> Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting
> for a buy signal.
>
> Things I like about it:
> 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4
> quarters
> 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases
> over year ago comparable
> ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you
> look at)
> Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to
> the 5 year growth rate
> Only about 10 million shares in Float
> Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1
> being the best, 5 being
> the worst)
> Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the
> projected price target is
> about $76
> Good EPS Rank
>
> Things I don't like:
> Over 65% Institutionally owned
> Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5
> year growth rate
> Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to
> the 5 year growth rate
> The support level looks to be in the $45 range
>
> I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to
> high $40's
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [e-mail]
> [mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf
> Of travis bolster
> Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD
>
>
> I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD.  I
> think the ratings are (96/94 ABA).  They sell
> diabetes
> equipment through the mail and other medical
> supplies.
>
> Travis Bolster
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
> http://im.yahoo.com
>
> -
>
>
>
> -
>
>

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com

- -

- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 06 Apr 2000 08:26:31 -0700
From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength

Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in March
was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days,
not starting on the fourth day...

On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said:
>Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again.  (I think
>Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that
>point.)  Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry
>Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest?  Here are a few possibilities I'm
>considering.  I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3.
>
>1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months.  (I question this since
>this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the
>new leaders will be.)
>
>2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs.  IBD lists the
>YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top
>groups based on that number.  (I think this might be a better approach than
>number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.)
>
>3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March.  I
>could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of
>the peak and calculating the performance since the peak.  (I wonder if this
>is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe
>to use??)
>
>Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak?
>I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups).
>
>Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why?  Thanks for
>you opinions and suggestions in advance.

Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 00:14:31 -0400
From: "Matt Robinson" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PLMD

Well, if it were lower that would mean there was a lot more shares for
institutions to buy. Thus greater chance that this buying will raise the
price of the stock. The theory is that if it is too high.......the price
effect of institutional investors has been priced in. I don't know who it
was, but someone mentioned PLMD a while back.......yea it looks pretty good.
I think it was after the beginning of the year breakout and I stopped
watching when it sunk back........stupid me.

Regards
Matt


- ----- Original Message -----
From: travis bolster <[e-mail]>
To: <[e-mail]>
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:52 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PLMD


> Dan, great info just curious about why the
> institutional holdings bother you?  Also, why would
> you want to buy in the 40's when its off its 52 week
> high?
>
> Travis
>
> --- Dan Sutton <[e-mail]> wrote:
> > Polymedica is on my weekly watchlist....just waiting
> > for a buy signal.
> >
> > Things I like about it:
> > 4 Positive Earnings announcements out of the last 4
> > quarters
> > 14 out of the past 20 quarters have had increases
> > over year ago comparable
> > ROE of 18.6 (or 16.8 depending on which source you
> > look at)
> > Earnings growth rate is increasing as compared to
> > the 5 year growth rate
> > Only about 10 million shares in Float
> > Zacks is showing analyst recommendation of 1.22 (1
> > being the best, 5 being
> > the worst)
> > Using Ian Woodwards "Gas In Tank) method, the
> > projected price target is
> > about $76
> > Good EPS Rank
> >
> > Things I don't like:
> > Over 65% Institutionally owned
> > Revenue growth is slowing in comparison to the 5
> > year growth rate
> > Cash Flow growth rate is slowing in comparison to
> > the 5 year growth rate
> > The support level looks to be in the $45 range
> >
> > I am waiting for a buy opportunity in the mid to
> > high $40's
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: [e-mail]
> > [mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf
> > Of travis bolster
> > Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:38 PM
> > To: [e-mail]
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] PLMD
> >
> >
> > I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on PLMD.  I
> > think the ratings are (96/94 ABA).  They sell
> > diabetes
> > equipment through the mail and other medical
> > supplies.
> >
> > Travis Bolster
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
> > http://im.yahoo.com
> >
> > -
> >
> >
> >
> > -
> >
> >
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
> http://im.yahoo.com
>
> -
>


__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com

- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 11:28:09 -0500
From: "walter nusbaum" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Fisher" <[e-mail]>
To: <[e-mail]>
Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 10:26 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength


> Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in
March
> was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days,
> not starting on the fourth day...
>
> On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said:
> >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again.  (I
think
> >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at
that
> >point.)

Earl & Tim,
I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned
upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is
using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for
"extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market.

The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD,
which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big
time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their
significance. Not so.

In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3
week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the
1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a
five week period.

My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it
mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in
Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it
would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not
relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own.

Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame,
magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to
ignore previous DD's? Thanks.
Best wishes,
Walt






- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 09:47:18 -0700 (PDT)
From: Pritish Shah <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength

Here is the excerpt from http://www.investors.com/invcorner/market04.htm

I have underlined the section that I think is of importance. The put/call
ratio peaked and was at the highest level in a year.

Regards,
Shah

Excerpt:

Follow-throughs are no guarantee a rally will thrive. But no major advance
has started without one.

Those that occur after the 10th day suggest the rally may be
weak. Confirmed rallies that fail usually come crashing down a day or two
after the follow-through. During last year's summer correction, there were
confirmed rallies in late August and early October of 1999, though neither
was impressive. Both failed within days.

Finally, the S&P 500 bottomed on Oct. 18, 13.1% off its old high. The
big-cap index fell early that day, but recovered to close up 6.72 points
at 1254.13. That was day one. On Oct. 27, the eighth day, the S&P rose
1.2% on somewhat higher volume. That qualified as a follow-through, but by
itself didn't inspire much confidence.

Unlike the prior attempts, though, other indicators suggested the market
************************************************************************
had bottomed. The put/call volume ratio peaked at 0.93 on Oct. 15, the day
**************************************************************************
before the market bottomed and the highest level in a year. When investor
*************************************************************************
sentiment turns excessively bearish, it's usually a bullish sign.
******************************************************************

On Oct. 28, the S&P 500 surged 3.5% on heavy volume as the Dow industrials
and the Nasdaq staged their own follow-throughs. From their follow-through
confirmations, the S&P 500 rose 14%, the Dow climbed 11% and the Nasdaq
surged 50%.

Savvy investors moved right away. Leading stocks started blowing out of
bases on the confirmation session and in the weeks that followed.



On Thu, 6 Apr 2000, walter nusbaum wrote:

>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tim Fisher" <[e-mail]>
> To: <[e-mail]>
> Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 10:26 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
>
>
> > Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in
> March
> > was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days,
> > not starting on the fourth day...
> >
> > On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said:
> > >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again.  (I
> think
> > >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at
> that
> > >point.)
>
> Earl & Tim,
> I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned
> upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is
> using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for
> "extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market.
>
> The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD,
> which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big
> time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their
> significance. Not so.
>
> In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3
> week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the
> 1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a
> five week period.
>
> My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it
> mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in
> Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it
> would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not
> relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own.
>
> Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame,
> magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to
> ignore previous DD's? Thanks.
> Best wishes,
> Walt
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 09:53:42 -0700 (PDT)
From: Pritish Shah <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength

BTW, forgot to mention that there is one more indicator of market
bottom. That is the volatility index. The volatility index becomes highest
when the market turnaround is seen. Combine the following and you have a
pretty good indicator

Put/Call ratio
Volatility Index
Follow-Through
Follow-Through Confirmation

Regards,
Shah

On Thu, 6 Apr 2000, Pritish Shah wrote:

>
> Here is the excerpt from http://www.investors.com/invcorner/market04.htm
>
> I have underlined the section that I think is of importance. The put/call
> ratio peaked and was at the highest level in a year.
>
> Regards,
> Shah
>
> Excerpt:
>
> Follow-throughs are no guarantee a rally will thrive. But no major advance
> has started without one.
>
> Those that occur after the 10th day suggest the rally may be
> weak. Confirmed rallies that fail usually come crashing down a day or two
> after the follow-through. During last year's summer correction, there were
> confirmed rallies in late August and early October of 1999, though neither
> was impressive. Both failed within days.
>
> Finally, the S&P 500 bottomed on Oct. 18, 13.1% off its old high. The
> big-cap index fell early that day, but recovered to close up 6.72 points
> at 1254.13. That was day one. On Oct. 27, the eighth day, the S&P rose
> 1.2% on somewhat higher volume. That qualified as a follow-through, but by
> itself didn't inspire much confidence.
>
> Unlike the prior attempts, though, other indicators suggested the market
> ************************************************************************
> had bottomed. The put/call volume ratio peaked at 0.93 on Oct. 15, the day
> **************************************************************************
> before the market bottomed and the highest level in a year. When investor
> *************************************************************************
> sentiment turns excessively bearish, it's usually a bullish sign.
> ******************************************************************
>
> On Oct. 28, the S&P 500 surged 3.5% on heavy volume as the Dow industrials
> and the Nasdaq staged their own follow-throughs. From their follow-through
> confirmations, the S&P 500 rose 14%, the Dow climbed 11% and the Nasdaq
> surged 50%.
>
> Savvy investors moved right away. Leading stocks started blowing out of
> bases on the confirmation session and in the weeks that followed.
>
>
>
> On Thu, 6 Apr 2000, walter nusbaum wrote:
>
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Tim Fisher" <[e-mail]>
> > To: <[e-mail]>
> > Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 10:26 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength
> >
> >
> > > Remember that the example of a follow-through day that Marder gave in
> > March
> > > was on the 3rd day following the low. I believe WON also says 3-10 days,
> > > not starting on the fourth day...
> > >
> > > On 07:43 AM 4/6/00 , Earl Setser Said:
> > > >Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again.  (I
> > think
> > > >Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at
> > that
> > > >point.)
> >
> > Earl & Tim,
> > I thought that I saw a FT day about two weeks ago, as the market turned
> > upward after three days of recent distribution. However, today's IBD is
> > using those three days plus two more(30 MAR & 4 APR) and is calling for
> > "extreme" caution if you are not already out of the market.
> >
> > The first distribution day(DD) was 23 days ago but only 14 from the 4th DD,
> > which is well within WON's parameters of 2-3 weeks. I missed this *big
> > time*, because I thought a rally following a series of DD's obviated their
> > significance. Not so.
> >
> > In WON's narrative concerning market tops, he specifically mentions a 2-3
> > week time frame for their occurrence, but in his detailed description of the
> > 1990 top, he shows 26 days between the 1st DD and the "sell" day, which is a
> > five week period.
> >
> > My IBD was not delivered last Thursday or Friday, so I don't know if it
> > mentioned that last Thursday was indeed the 4th day of distribution, but in
> > Monday's,Tuesday's and Wednesday's edition it goes unremarked. While it
> > would have been a great help if IBD had noted this earlier, it does not
> > relieve me of the responsibility to discover this on my own.
> >
> > Can anyone point me to a reference by WON that discusses the time frame,
> > magnitude of advance, or other indicator that effectively allows us to
> > ignore previous DD's? Thanks.
> > Best wishes,
> > Walt
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > -
> >
> >
>
>
> -
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 12:46:10 -0700
From: "[e-mail]" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON on selling short

My most successful short plays have been with "theme" or story
sectors that never really had good earnings. Right now I am doing
well with the Linux stocks (LNUX, RHAT). Had I been paying
attention in Jan., the e-tailers would have been a good short.
Several years back I did great shorting the Y2k software
companies. It's kind of like inverse CANSLIM, but not quite.
C and A work against you, so I like stocks with a low EPS, but
a high RS (more room to fall). It is possible to make money short
when M is going up, but the recent negative market has sure been
beneficial to my Linux shorts.
One downside of shorting is that you have to closely monitor your
open positions (in addition to having stops in place) and it takes
a lot of time to keep finding new short candidates. While a good
CANSLIM pick can be ridden for months or even years, short plays
are ususally weeks or months at most.


Dave Farthing
Gordian Design Services

direct any spam to: [e-mail]

- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 14:21:12 -0400
From: "Matt Robinson" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up

Yup


- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
To: <[e-mail]>
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 11:34 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up


> These have hardly held up. E.g. ARMHY had a high of 250 & closed at 180
> yesterday. I think he was looking for charts like CSCO, ORCL, QCOM, NOK,
> ALTR, AMAT (see you had that one), JBL, MNMD, RSYS, SANM, ADBE.
>
> On 10:49 PM 4/4/00 , David S. Pinhasik Said:
> >Take a look at these:
> >
> >PWAV   up 5%      on 1.9 ADV
> >QLGC    up 7.64% on 3.4 ADV
> >AMAT    up 9.94% on 2.8 ADV
> >SNRA     up 9.75% on 2.7 ADV
> >ARMHY up 29.5% on 3.5 ADV
> >CREE     up 7.68% on 2    ADV
> >ADVS     up 13.1% on 3.6 ADV
> >CTSH     up 4.28% on 1.9 ADV
> >
> >David
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Matt Robinson <[e-mail]>
> >To: <[e-mail]>
> >Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 3:39 PM
> >Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock that Have Held Up
> >
> >
> > > I think now would be a good time to run through leading stocks that
have
> > > held up the best. One gets the best idea of true or future market
leaders
> >in
> > > a correction or bear market, respectively.  I personally don't see any
of
> > > the larger leaders that have held up well. Some of the "blue chip"
tech
> > > names haven't done too badly, INTC doesn't look that bad, but I was
> >looking
> > > for more "high power" stocks as well.
> > >
> > > NASI could be beginning to base around 21. Many of the smaller names
that
> > > have been favorites of CANSLIMers have gotten ripped, such as XETA.
> > >
> > > Regards
> > > Matt
> > >
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
> [e-mail]
> WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
> See naked fish and rocks!
>
>
> -
>


__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com

- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 15:33:48 -0500
From: "Charles Dille" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Look at SAWS and TTN

I ask about a week ago about these stocks and got a lot of helpful response.
Does anybody think these are now Canslim prospects?


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 15:49:24 -0500
From: "walter nusbaum" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Pritish Shah" <[e-mail]>
To: <[e-mail]>
Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 11:53 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength


>
> BTW, forgot to mention that there is one more indicator of market
> bottom. That is the volatility index. The volatility index becomes highest
> when the market turnaround is seen. Combine the following and you have a
> pretty good indicator
>
> Put/Call ratio
> Volatility Index
> Follow-Through
> Follow-Through Confirmation
>
> Regards,
> Shah

Shah,
Thanks for your reply. HTMMIS mentions neither the Put/Call nor Volatility,
but they will surely help confirm a turn around. Thanks again.
Best wishes,
Walt




- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 16:05:52 -0500
From: "Charles Dille" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Look at SAWS and TTN (Never Mind)

After looking at the charts I have answered my own question.

They are not, but they sure kicked butt today.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: Charles Dille <[e-mail]>
To: Canslim List <[e-mail]>
Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 3:33 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Look at SAWS and TTN


> I ask about a week ago about these stocks and got a lot of helpful
response.
> Does anybody think these are now Canslim prospects?
>
>
> -
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 17:48:58 -0600
From: "Dan Sutton" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC

In the new version, when you click on View, then Fundamentals, it is the
third line down from the top.

- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of Wahl, Patrick
Sent: Thursday, April 06, 2000 8:24 AM
To: '[e-mail]'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC


Does QP2 have an EPS rank?  I haven't seen it before.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Dan Sutton [mailto:[e-mail]]
> Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 10:01 PM
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CYTC

> The positives (according to QP2):
> EPS Rank of 99
> Rs rank of 94
> Float of 24 million shares
> Projected EPS growth rate of 275% (although that is only 8
> cents per share)
> Strong revenue growth rate
> Zacks recommendation of 1.9
> Looks like it is resting right about at it's 50 day moving average
> Had a good move up today

- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 06 Apr 2000 20:14:32 -0400
From: Walter Stock <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Group Strength - Charting Groups

Hi Earl,

To answer your original question, the approach to picking
the right industry groups is the topic I used to struggle with
more than any other in earlier years.

Your item #1:   I agree with your thoughts here.  I don't use
the ranking over the last 6 months.

Item #2:   A little better than #1 but still at some risk of
stale data.

Item #3:   Perhaps better than the other two.

What we really need to know is which groups and which stocks held
up best over the past month, because that is where the new leaders
will likely emerge from.  In other words which industry groups have
the highest relative strength?

Here's what I do.  I take the IBD industry groups and select
the top 15 ranked stocks in each group (EPS, RS, SMR, Acc/Dis).
I then put these stocks into groups of the same name as IBD's on my
charting software.

This creates what are sometimes called "surrogate groups"
of leaders (the laggard stocks are entirely left out).   After I download
my data every night, I simply look at my charts of the groups before
looking at the charts of individual stocks.  Most important,
I also look at the relative strength of each group as compared to
the NASD on a daily basis.  I also look for chart patterns in the groups
(usual WON patterns) and also apply TA.

The idea for this approach was originally suggested by a veteran of our
Canslim group who no longer subscribes.  He used Windows On
Wall Street charting software which lets you do group work.
I use AIQ charting software which has some powerful group analysis
features - the reason I picked AIQ.  ( I carefully ignore AIQ's market
signals.)

Note:  I don't track all or even most of the industry groups.  I am
only concerned with the technology groups (all), the financial groups
(a handful) and the energy groups (only a couple).  I don't trade the
rest on a serious basis.
If  "Chemical-Fertilizers" becomes the next market leader, I guess I will
have to miss the move.

Hope this helps,

Walter Stock
Oakville, ON, Canada



Earl Setser wrote:

> Well, here we are attempting to get a FT day on the NASDAQ again.  (I think
> Friday would be the fourth day of the rally, so I'll start watching at that
> point.)  Given that we get an FT day, what approach to picking Industry
> Groups (IGPs) would you guys suggest?  Here are a few possibilities I'm
> considering.  I would really appreciate your opinions, particularly on #3.
>
> 1 - Use the IBD IGP rank for the last 6 months.  (I question this since
> this data includes most of the last runup, and may not indicate where the
> new leaders will be.)
>
> 2 - Use the IBD IGP performance YTD to select the top IGPs.  IBD lists the
> YTD performance every day, so it would just be a matter of picking the top
> groups based on that number.  (I think this might be a better approach than
> number 1, while still maintaining a 3+ month perspective.)
>
> 3 - Select the top performing IGPs since the NASDAQ peak in early March.  I
> could generate this data by using the latest IBD and the IBD the data of
> the peak and calculating the performance since the peak.  (I wonder if this
> is a good approach to pick leading groups, or is it too short a timeframe
> to use??)
>
> Does anyone have the information on the best groups since the NASDAQ peak?
> I would be interested in the top 40 groups or so (using the IBD groups).
>
> Also, is there a different timeframe someone prefers and why?  Thanks for
> you opinions and suggestions in advance.
>
> -


- -

------------------------------

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