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canslim-digest        Wednesday, March 22 2000        Volume 02 : Number 854



In this issue:

       [CANSLIM] stops
       Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day?
       Re: [CANSLIM] stops
       Re: [CANSLIM] stops
       Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day?
       Re: [CANSLIM] stops
       [CANSLIM] Group Strenght-Brokers
       Re: [CANSLIM] stops
       [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille
       [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille
       [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS
       [CANSLIM] Breakout Whipsaws
       Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout Whipsaws
       [CANSLIM] RE:Charles Dille
       Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille
       Re: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS
       Re: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2000 17:45:46 -0700
From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] stops

Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good
example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it
probably would be better to hang in there.  One of my stocks
spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before
rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day.  Not sure where a
stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop
in place would have shaken me out.  Guess for me at least, in
most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and
not some intraday spike.

- -

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2000 18:57:40 -0700
From: Earl Setser <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day?

I agree, although I am a little concerned about that low in the morning.
Has anyone seen how the volume mapped out today?  I would bet that the
volume late in the day was much higher than before the Fed announcement,
and if so, that's maybe a better indicator of the strength of this rally.


At 02:54 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote:
>Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with
>last thursday's turn-around.
>
>Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume
>(1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume
>(1.526B shares).
>
>Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last
>thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz
>Follow Thru ( F/T) day.
>
>Do others concur or disagree?
>
>Thanks,
>Ziggy
>
>
>-
>
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2000 19:01:22 -0700
From: Earl Setser <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops

Ah yes, I got kicked out of SEBL when it went from a 132.xx close yesterday
to 110 in about 30 minutes.  WOW.  I looked later, and it was trading in
the high 120s.  My stop was about 128, and I'm happy with getting out
there, but it really makes me wonder if hard stops are the way to go!!  It
seems the lower you set them, the more likely you'll get shaken out on some
ridiculous spike down, particularly in tech stocks right now.  Another
example was ETEK.  I sold at 234 on Thursday, and it traded as low as 19x
that day.  I bought back in at 236 today (still playing the arbritage way
to get JDSU) after-market today.  With that purchase, ETEK is my only
holding and I'm a little under 1/6 invested.

At 05:45 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote:
>Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good
>example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it
>probably would be better to hang in there.  One of my stocks
>spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before
>rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day.  Not sure where a
>stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop
>in place would have shaken me out.  Guess for me at least, in
>most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and
>not some intraday spike.
>
>-
>
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2000 22:07:11 -0700
From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops

Pretty wild lately, I think if would be best if I didn't even look at the
market intraday, but its some sort of compulsion.  Jubak has a
good article today about the recent volatility, noted that its pretty
tough to keep your cool with the recent intraday price swings.  He
likes JDSU, BTW, which I noticed touched its 50 day moving
average and bounced today.

Regarding your experience with the stops, we were recently
discussing holding longer, towards that end I am trying to hang on
to a couple of stocks that I think I have an understanding of and
seem to have good prospects looking out a year or two, so no
stops on them, will monitor them for moves that seem unrelated to
market moves, but if they move down simply because the market
is gyrating, I am going to try to hold on.

On 21 Mar 00, at 19:01, Earl Setser wrote:

> Ah yes, I got kicked out of SEBL when it went from a 132.xx close yesterday
> to 110 in about 30 minutes.  WOW.  I looked later, and it was trading in
> the high 120s.  My stop was about 128, and I'm happy with getting out
> there, but it really makes me wonder if hard stops are the way to go!!  It
> seems the lower you set them, the more likely you'll get shaken out on some
> ridiculous spike down, particularly in tech stocks right now.  Another
> example was ETEK.  I sold at 234 on Thursday, and it traded as low as 19x
> that day.  I bought back in at 236 today (still playing the arbritage way
> to get JDSU) after-market today.  With that purchase, ETEK is my only
> holding and I'm a little under 1/6 invested.
>
> At 05:45 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote:
> >Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good
> >example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it
> >probably would be better to hang in there.  One of my stocks
> >spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before
> >rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day.  Not sure where a
> >stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop
> >in place would have shaken me out.  Guess for me at least, in
> >most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and
> >not some intraday spike.
> >
> >-
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> -
>



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 02:42:00 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day?

Hi Ziggy,

My first inclination was to agree with it being a follow
thru day.  What bothers me with this conclusion, however, is
the quality of follow thru.  Checking the indexes I follow,
I find too many of them only had average volume today
(S&P500; Naz; NYSE Composite; R2000, to name a few). Dow 30
did exceed daily average, but was confined to a few sectors.
I am also concerned about the advance/decline on Naz, a 2:3
ratio even tho volume was a 3/2 ratio, so the big cap,
highly liquid stocks made that 2%.  I would have expected
far more robust volume on a 2% day, even with the sideline
sitting until the Feds announcements at 2:15PM.  Had
yesterday's volume been typical, I am not sure today's
volume would have even exceeded, and that could be a major
chink in the "follow thru" argument.

Tom Worley
[e-mail]
chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html


- ----- Original Message -----
From: <[e-mail]>
To: canslim list <[e-mail]>
Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2000 4:54 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day?


Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with
last thursday's turn-around.

Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume
(1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume
(1.526B shares).

Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last
thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz
Follow Thru ( F/T) day.

Do others concur or disagree?

Thanks,
Ziggy


- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 06:26:32 -0700
From: <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops

I am getting a little more agressive at this point...Bot SEBL yesterday am at
121 1/2 when it bounced off it's 50 dma (about 120)...by the way, that SEBL low
of 110 was only showing for about an hour and then was changed to a low of 118
which is what is also showing as the low in today's IBD...so I think the 110
may have been an error.

As of this morning I'm about 60% invested and am planning to increase this to
100% as the week unfolds barring any market surprises...My current holdings are
CPWR, CSCO, SCH, SEBL and VTSS. I would like to add ETEK and will be looking
for an entry point I am comfortable with...also watching HOTT.

Have a great day,

Ziggy

Earl Setser wrote:

> Ah yes, I got kicked out of SEBL when it went from a 132.xx close yesterday
> to 110 in about 30 minutes.  WOW.  I looked later, and it was trading in
> the high 120s.  My stop was about 128, and I'm happy with getting out
> there, but it really makes me wonder if hard stops are the way to go!!  It
> seems the lower you set them, the more likely you'll get shaken out on some
> ridiculous spike down, particularly in tech stocks right now.  Another
> example was ETEK.  I sold at 234 on Thursday, and it traded as low as 19x
> that day.  I bought back in at 236 today (still playing the arbritage way
> to get JDSU) after-market today.  With that purchase, ETEK is my only
> holding and I'm a little under 1/6 invested.
>
> -


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 07:17:49 -0700
From: <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strenght-Brokers

The IBD group strength for the Finance-Investment Brokers
group continues to creep up...as of today's IBD it has moved
to position 38 and therefore an "A" Group ranking.

Is anybody following any other groups that are moving up
?...Please share...Thanks

Ziggy


- -

------------------------------

Date: 22 Mar 2000 07:31:50 -0800
From: "Tim Fisher" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops

Get this, I put in an order to buy 10 stocks (60k worth) at the open on
Monday, then got on a plane for Disneyland! Just checked prices this AM,
and if I had been able to put stops on I would have been out of every
single one of them intraday yesterday. I was very worried about not having
stops while on vacation, now I am relieved that I did not. Just lucky I
guess. Could easily have been the start of another nasty correction in the
NASDAQ...

At 05:45 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote:
>Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good
>example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it
>probably would be better to hang in there.  One of my stocks
>spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before
>rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day.  Not sure where a
>stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop
>in place would have shaken me out.  Guess for me at least, in
>most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and
>not some intraday spike.
>
>-

Tim Fisher
[e-mail]
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists Web Pages
http://OreRockOn.com/


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 10:42:58 -0600
From: "Charles Dille" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille

Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am =
relatively new to investing and I am actively researching and =
implementing the CANSLIM method of investing.


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 11:15:40 -0600
From: "Charles Dille" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille

Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am relatively
new to investing and I am actively researching and implementing the CANSLIM
method of investing.


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 11:17:10 -0600
From: "Charles Dille" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS

Titan, Nyse.  & Sawtek, Nasdaq
I have been watching these two stocks and would like some of your thoughts
regarding the technicals on them. Do they look like they have reached the
buy point?

Thanks for any input.

Charlie


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 09:43:51 -0800
From: Mary Keener <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout Whipsaws

Anyone on the board have a similar experience?

Mary

Handling Breakout Whipsaws By Greg Kuhn

Ever wonder what to do with a stock you
just bought on a multi-week base breakout
that hits your stop-loss the same day you
bought it? As unnerving as it is, you sell
it of course. But what do you do if the stock
holds and breaks out again a couple days later?
As unnerving as that is, you buy it back.
Just when you're in your zone--just when
you're operating on all cylinders--something
like this will strike. If you stay focused,
however, you will be able to do this as
effortlessly as anything else your experiences
in the market teach you. Yes, a situation like
this is quite rare, but there is no way you
should ever just walk away because it's too
painful to deal with. It may just be one of
the big-winning stocks you're looking for.

Active Software (ASWX) was one such stock
that caught me flat-footed in this situation.
But instead of letting the stock control me,
I controlled it. The stock was set up perfectly
in a seven-week, cup-with-handle base. The OTC
market was on fire. Other stocks in leading
industry groups were breaking out of basing
patterns left and right. And most of my other
stocks were breaking out, following through
to higher levels, and I was making money very
rapidly. Sound like a recipe for complacent greed?
Only if you're not careful. Only if you
approach the market without any sense of humility.

After swinging up off its base lows on heavy
volume to complete the cup portion of its basing
pattern in early February, the writing was
on the wall. The stock was prepping itself for
a healthy breakout. But there was the case for
the handle part of the base first. And there it
was. The stock pulled back on low volume on
Feb. 18, 22, and 23, then sprang to life
on Feb. 24 on heavy volume. This baby was
being heavily accumulated and I was ready to
strike!

With a pivot-point, or buy price, now set at
the high of the cup's right side (beginning
of the handle) at 99 1/2, all I had to do was
wait for it to cross that level, preferably on
increasing volume during the day, and buy it.
Easy enough. I was all over it, buying 12,000
shares as it approached the 99 1/2 level during
the day and crossed strongly to a high of 102 5/8.
Okay. Feels good. This stock blasted right through
its pivot price. Wow, this is great! Just as I sat
back to read the paper, thinking all I had to do
now was let the stock go and watch the profits
roll in, the stock abruptly stopped going up.
But I've seen this before. After most stocks
break out, they have to take a rest somewhere.
But that was it. By the end of the day I was
bailing out of my position as it ticked due
outh from a high of 102 5/8 all the way back
down to 90.

The situation went down something like this:
What the...? Now 94 bid. Pick up the phone,
call my trader, "Sell 6,000, ASWX, market."
Done...somewhat lower. But still not holding.
Aaaaaargh! Pick up the phone, call my trader,
"Sell 6,000 shares at the market, go, just
hit the bids!" A minute goes by and the trader
calls back, "Greg, man, nobody's home on this
thing...no buyers anywhere." Bidding 90. The
stock finally holds, I get filled at the low;
ten minutes later the stock lifts and closes
for a small gain on the day--up 5 3/4 points
from where I sold my last lot of 6,000 (d).
That was fun...not! But I had no choice.
Although my final exit point ended up being
the low of the day, I didn't know that. All
I know is the stock hit my predetermined
stop-loss (actually moved right though it)
and that's all that mattered.

Okay, day's over. Move on. The stock hangs
in there for another day, closing down marginally
the following day. All right, let's reset our
pivot-price to 102 5/8--the intra-day high on
the day I got "whipsawed." Voila!  After holding
within its handle for a day, the stock breaks
out again. And I buy it back crossing 102 5/8.

As I'm writing this piece on Mar. 13, Active
Software was the only stock in my portfolio
that not only resisted the Nasdaq Composite's
141-point decline, it actually rallied 25 points
from its down opening to a new all-time high.
Now there's a situation I can live with.

Actually, as I watched the stock do a 180 the
first day I bought it, I thought about what may
have moved it so dramatically. Perhaps the stock
fell into the hands of several day-traders that
broke it out before it was really ready? I don't
know. But it was very unusual. Nonetheless, if
this was the case, and the stock actually held
tight within its basing pattern, then it all
made sense to me.  And if I understand what may
have happened, it makes it all the more easier
to step right back up to the plate.

Should you be able to do this with little
experience in the market? Let's just say,
if you do, then you're light years ahead of
where I was when I began trading stocks many
years ago. It literally took me years to get
the nerve to step right back up to the plate
after whiffing on three straight fast balls
like this. Through continuous post-analysis
of all of your mistakes, though, you'll find
that the light at the end of the tunnel really
is an opening and not the headlights of an
oncoming train.

- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 14:49:37 -0700
From: <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout Whipsaws

Thanks for posting Mary,
An interesting article and a good lesson to learn.

Ziggy

Mary Keener wrote:

> Anyone on the board have a similar experience?
>
> Mary
>
> Handling Breakout Whipsaws By Greg Kuhn

> <big snip>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 17:56:06 -0600
From: "John Adair" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] RE:Charles Dille

To Charles Dille drop Me a line with your email address. We Have A Canslim
Group In Dallas.

- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of Charles Dille
Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 11:16 AM
To: Canslim List
Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille


Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am relatively
new to investing and I am actively researching and implementing the CANSLIM
method of investing.


- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 16:42:11 -0700
From: <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille

Hi Charlie,

Welcome to the group.

Ziggy

Charles Dille wrote:

> Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am =
> relatively new to investing and I am actively researching and =
> implementing the CANSLIM method of investing.
>
> -


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 17:22:15 -0700
From: <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS

TTN (IBD 76 95 ABA) appears to be working on the right side of a cup and would
need to form a downward sloping handle and break out from that handle on
strong volume. The buy point or correct pivot point would be 1/8 of a point
above the high of the handle (which at present we don't know).

SAWS (IBD 97 84 AAC) has been in a downtrend the past 5 or so weeks and may be
bottoming and starting to come off it's bottom...I do not see a CANSLIM buy
point at this time...there may be somewhat of an entry point at 1/8 of a point
above the high of the middle of the small "W" pattern formed at the bottom if
accompanied by strong volume (+150% of average daily volume)... but I don't
believe this is CANSLIM because it is so far below its previous high of 93 1/2
set only 2 1/2 months ago. I am more inclined to say this stock is starting to
work on the right side of a cup. As such I don't  as yet see a correct buy
point on this one.

I would suggest you spend a lot of time looking at charts...after awhile they
start making sense...at least some of them...and then you act on those (the
one's that make sense--pattern [base], price and volume). Of course, this is
after you have qualified the stock from a fundamental standpoint.

I also suggest reading and re-reading and re-reading and etc. Wm O'Neil's
books on "How To Make Money In Stocks" and "24 Essential Lessons for
Investment Success".

Just my 2 cents worth.

Best regards,

Ziggy

Charles Dille wrote:

> Titan, Nyse.  & Sawtek, Nasdaq
> I have been watching these two stocks and would like some of your thoughts
> regarding the technicals on them. Do they look like they have reached the
> buy point?
>
> Thanks for any input.
>
> Charlie
>
> -


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 21:34:41 -0700
From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS

TTN is forming a nice base, I'm not sure that last weeks runup is
ideal, you actually want to see a downward sloping handle form.
Looks like it may want to breakout from the current pattern, still
might work out ok, although not quite the ideal formation.  SAWS
doesn't seem to be doing anything after a pretty nice runup all fall,
it is still many weeks away from forming any sort of base, maybe
what it is doing now is the start of a cup, but it isn't there yet.

On 22 Mar 00, at 11:17, Charles Dille wrote:

> Titan, Nyse.  & Sawtek, Nasdaq
> I have been watching these two stocks and would like some of your thoughts
> regarding the technicals on them. Do they look like they have reached the
> buy point?
>
> Thanks for any input.
>
> Charlie
>
>
> -
>



- -

------------------------------

End of canslim-digest V2 #854
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