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canslim-digest        Thursday, March 16 2000        Volume 02 : Number 849



In this issue:

       Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Opening
       [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription
       [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Distribution according to IBD
       Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       [CANSLIM] And now what ?
       Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       Fw: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?
       [CANSLIM] Rally????

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: 15 Mar 2000 06:48:18 -0800
From: "Tim Fisher" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Opening

In a correction the market loves to head fake in the morning.

At 08:06 AM 3/15/00 -0500, you wrote:
>Look's like a strong opening, but after yesterday I wouldn't
>trust it too far.
>
>Tom Worley
>[e-mail]
>chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
>get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 08:00:01 -0700
From: [e-mail] (Jeff Salisbury)
Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription

This is a twice monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group.

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Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 12:47:12 -0800
From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3
stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the
past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I
expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop
on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason
QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a
nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up
350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally
on the NYSE.

Here's one opinion I happen to agree with:

>``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones
>industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new
>support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the
>Nasdaq composite.''
>
>Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1
>percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day
>moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week.
>
>Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500.
Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far
since my all-time high last Thursday.


Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 14:08:58 -0800 (PST)
From: Pritish Shah <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

I think the support will come at the psychological level of 4500 and the
next support (if 4500 breaks) will probably come at 4250.

Looking at the market, I do think that we had reached a climactic top at
5132 because it was kind of euphoria when we crossed 5000.

I did not have enough guts to be all cash but I had not ridden the wave up
to 5000. Most of my stock purchases had happened at the 4500 level and I
had not put in any money (until yesterday and day before yesterday) when I
put my money in CREE, SDS and MSFT. My other stocks are ADIC, CTS and
SUNW.

I should be stopped out of CTS and CREE but I have hung on to them because
I have kept a 20% loss rule rather than 7-8%.

Regards,
Pritish

On Wed, 15 Mar 2000, Tim Fisher wrote:

> Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3
> stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the
> past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I
> expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop
> on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason
> QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a
> nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up
> 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally
> on the NYSE.
>
> Here's one opinion I happen to agree with:
>
> >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones
> >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new
> >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the
> >Nasdaq composite.''
> >
> >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1
> >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day
> >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week.
> >
> >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500.
> Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far
> since my all-time high last Thursday.
>
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
> [e-mail]
> WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
> See naked fish and rocks!
>
>
> -
>
>



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 20:34:27 -0700
From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

On 15 Mar 00, at 12:47, Tim Fisher wrote:

> Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3
> stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the
> past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I
> expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop
> on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason
> QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a
> nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up
> 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally
> on the NYSE.

Yeah, it is pretty quiet.  Well, I got the *&^%& kicked out of me the
last two days, I guess when things go up that far that fast, you are
due for this sort of thing.  I'm still up nicely, but less nicely than I
was last Friday.  My stocks definitely have a high Beta, I am going
to try to hang in with most of them, one which pulled back 40
points in two days I finally bailed out of (CMRC).

I am actually looking at this as a chance to pick some stuff up at
lower prices, if some short bases form, if the nasdaq settles down
for a bit.  Hard to see things falling that much farther (I hope), I
mean, the nasdaq in 3 days has corrected over 9%.





- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 21:11:28 -0700
From: Earl Setser <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

I'm getting killed.  After peaking at a 70% gain YTD late last week, I am
still in all 4 stocks and more than 1/2 of the gain is gone.  I may have to
rethink the amount I'm willing to give up when multiple stocks move down
together.  I'm going to study the charts and make some decisions about 15
minutes or so after the open tomorrow.  At best, I'll put in hard stops on
at least 2 stocks.  At worst, I'll sell all 4 at market.

One good point is I'm moving some more funds from another investment into
CANSLIM, and the new funds will put me about 66% in cash before any of the
sells.  I expect to have this cash this week, but I don't expect to be
jumping into anything for a while.

At 12:47 PM 3/15/00 -0800, you wrote:
>Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3
>stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the
>past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I
>expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop
>on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason
>QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a
>nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up
>350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally
>on the NYSE.
>
>Here's one opinion I happen to agree with:
>
>>``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones
>>industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new
>>support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the
>>Nasdaq composite.''
>>
>>Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1
>>percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day
>>moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week.
>>
>>Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500.
>Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far
>since my all-time high last Thursday.
>
>
>Tim Fisher
>Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
>[e-mail]
>WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
>See naked fish and rocks!
>
>
>-
>
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 23:42:33 -0500
From: Walter Stock <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

Am 100% cash and have been since I covered my NYSE shorts.
No pain.     : )

Am taking this week and next week off to be with my five-year old
boy who is on his March break from Kindergarten.
Big gain.     : )

Walter


Tim Fisher wrote:

> Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3
> stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the
> past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I
> expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop
> on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason
> QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a
> nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up
> 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally
> on the NYSE.
>
> Here's one opinion I happen to agree with:
>
> >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones
> >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new
> >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the
> >Nasdaq composite.''
> >
> >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1
> >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day
> >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week.
> >
> >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500.
> Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far
> since my all-time high last Thursday.
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
> [e-mail]
> WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
> See naked fish and rocks!
>
> -


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 22:15:44 -0700
From: Earl Setser <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Distribution according to IBD

In today's (Wed) IBD, they noted that yesterday was the 2nd clear
distribution day with a 3rd possible day (Friday had almost no gain on good
volume) in the last 5 trading days.  Looking at today's volume, we had a
big move down on roughly equal volume to yesterday.  This could be
interpreted as a fourth distribution day in 6 trading days.  This is very
bearish from a CANSLIM perspective.  I fully expect to either sell or put
in relatively tight hard stops on at least 3 of my 4 positions very early
in the morning.  I'm hoping for a rally (even a sucker rally!!), to give me
a little room above today's closes for those stops.

Good luck all!!!


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 21:43:13 -0800
From: "Bill Triffet" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

Sold CMVT and CVG on Mon. Still holding RFMD, SEBL, and CAMP. Looking for a
little bounce tommorrow from the bottom feeders. I know they're out there!
(g) If not, I wont be pocketing the 100% profit (sic) I had with RFMD. It
looks like +70% will suffice.

One can't be greedy here. (g)

It was a great run folks. Let's do this again!

- -Bill Triffet

- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
To: <[e-mail]>
Sent: Wednesday, March 15, 2000 12:47 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?


> Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3
> stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the
> past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I
> expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop
> on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason
> QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a
> nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up
> 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally
> on the NYSE.
>
> Here's one opinion I happen to agree with:
>
> >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow
Jones
> >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new
> >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the
> >Nasdaq composite.''
> >
> >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1
> >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its
50-day
> >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week.
> >
> >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500.
> Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far
> since my all-time high last Thursday.
>
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
> [e-mail]
> WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
> See naked fish and rocks!
>
>
> -
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 21:58:34 -0800
From: Jesus Canal <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] And now what ?

Hi,

Yesterday, I sold and took some profits on Siebel (it was 10% down
from its all time high), Novellus (it was 10% down from its all
time high), and Cisco (I was too excited selling and raising cash).
Two weeks ago I took a loss on JMED.

So this morning, I found myself with 70% of my portfolio in cash
and a need to buy some stocks. However, Nasdaq was down soon after
the opening bell and I ended up not buying a thing.

When do you think it is a good time to start buying again ?
On one hand, there's the release of the PPI and CPI numbers and
the Fed meeting which tell me to wait until next week.
On the other hand, Nasdaq has been corrected by 10% already, and
earlier this year, after two 10% corrections, it rebounded nicely,
which tells me to buy now.

Thanks,

Jesus




- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 10:25:54 +0200
From: "David S. Pinhasik" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

2 days ago I got in to cash totally. Yesterday I looked for *anything*
showing a little strength in this blowout and found 1 or 2 possibilities

dram - was showing nice strength but then in the end, closed down 8.65% on
heavy volume

avrt - up the past few days on very heavy volume despite the madness. I
bought it, but the past behavior of the chart makes me a little nervous, I'm
watching it carefully.



- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 10:31:12 +0200
From: "David S. Pinhasik" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

> avrt - up the past few days on very heavy volume despite the madness. I
> bought it, but the past behavior of the chart makes me a little nervous,
I'm
> watching it carefully.

correction - I *tried* to buy it. I just noticed that my order was rejected
by Suretrade, I have no idea why. May be this is just for the best, I felt
that the volume yesterday was slowing down, and in the past after a big
volume burst, the stock fell severly. Oh well...




- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 06:23:55 -0700
From: <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence?

Am about 50% cash...started taking money off the table about 2 weeks ago.
Sold VTSS at 106 on 3/1...bot on 2/8 for 48 3/8...sold when it opened on 3/1 @
106 3/8, then traded as high as 115 before retreating all the way back to
106...I saw this as a reversal of the 3 week run and sold just a few minutes
before the close. This was my best move.

Also bot ETEK @ 206 on 2/8 and sold @ 285 on 3/2...also a good move.

Bot SEBL @ 103 on 2/8 and sold @ 155 on 3/14 (2 days ago)...also a good move.

Bot JKHY @ 30 1/2 on 2/11 and still holding with about a 23% gain.

Bot DRAM @ 22 3/4 on 3/6 and still holding with about a 13% gain, although had
over 31% 2 days ago. (did come within 1/16 of my 8% loss point B/4 taking
off...showing how important it is to buy as close to the correct pivot point as
possible)

Bot SCH @ 44 1/8 on 3/2 and still holding with about a 10% gain, although had
around 23% 3 days ago.

Also holding CPWR and CSCO...but these have been held long term and have not
been trading...in CPWR's case not a good move, but has been very good being in
CSCO.

My big mistake was buying EFII on 3/14 @ 65 1/8 pre-judging a B/O which did not
occur...sold the next day (yesterday) @ 58 for a 11+ % loss. As Db
says...lessons are repeated until they are learned.

So far I am down about 3.5 % from my high last week...would have been better
except for my EFII goof.

This last market up cycle I tried to focus much more on taking good profits and
selling when I detected some weakness developing in my stocks and its worked
nicely. Had to many previous experiences of giving back good gains and did not
want to repeat that pattern.

I'm not sure when I will get more aggressive again...part of me is thinking
about getting back in to some of these leaders when they correct to their
50dma, but another part is saying to be patient and again wait for an uptrend
to start followed by a valid Follow-thru day. I have been following BEAS with a
thought of getting in at it's 50dma of about 105...well I didn't and it blew
right past that point yesterday to close at about 95...soooo I guess I am
leaning a little more toward waiting for the F/T day.

Oh what to do...it's a great game isn't it.
Have a great day all.

Ray "Ziggy" Wroblewski

Tim Fisher wrote:

> Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3
> stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the
> past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I
> expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop
> on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason
> QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a
> nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up
> 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally
> on the NYSE.
>
> Here's one opinion I happen to agree with:
>
> >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones
> >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new
> >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the
> >Nasdaq composite.''
> >
> >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1
> >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day
> >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week.
> >
> >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500.
> Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far
> since my all-time high last Thursday.
>
> Tim Fisher
> Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
> [e-mail]
> WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
> See naked fish and rocks!
>
> -


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 08:24:34 -0700
From: Earl Setser <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Rally????

Well, this was a good morning for me to be off work!!! (I'm going to NCAA
basketball games later this morning.)  I plopped myself in front of my
computer, and watched the morning rally on the NAS take off.  I watched for
about 15 minutes as everything looked strong.  I went ahead and put a stop
in my most recent purchase (it tripped a few minutes later).  I also
decided to lock in some of the morning's gains in 2 other positions.  I
picked a stop a couple of percent below the present price, and in both
cases, I had to change to a market order, because both stocks moved below
my target before I could get the order in.  Trying to not blow out of
everything in 5 minutes, I decided to give my last holding (SEBL) a tick
under yesterday's close for a stop.  So far, it's hanging in there, but the
market is turning ugly as everyone else was also sitting on their computers
with a fast trigger this morning.

Here I sit about 30 minutes after the action, and all three stocks I sold
have given up most of their gains, as the NAS has moved into the Red.  SEBL
is hanging onto it's early gains, but I'm not optimistic I'll still own it
by the end of the day.

This has certainly been an interesting few days.  I guess I'll sit down
during the weekend and see if I can figure out a strategy to help me get
out a bit quicker when all hell breaks lose like this (while still holding
for longer term gains when the market allows.)  Hmmm.  Not sure this
message will help anyone, but maybe we can share some ideas as time goes on.

Good luck all in this very scary market (even the NAS now).  Note that IBD
did compare this action to last spring's 1 month rotation into large caps,
and they indicated a month or so consolidation on the NAS would be very
normal given the huge runup since October.


- -

------------------------------

End of canslim-digest V2 #849
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