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1999-08-19
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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #680
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
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X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Friday, August 20 1999 Volume 02 : Number 680
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] Spottingpotential leaders early (Was: Was today the follow through O'NEil talks about)
[CANSLIM] RT streaming quotes
Re: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
Re: [CANSLIM] Tomorrow and tomorrow
[CANSLIM] Broadband
RE: [CANSLIM] Broadband
[CANSLIM] ( * )
[CANSLIM] Sentiment - Johan
[CANSLIM] Tomorrow - Earl
Re: [CANSLIM] ( * )
Re: [CANSLIM] Sentiment - Johan
[CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
[CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
[CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 15:40:48 -0400
From: Craig Griffin <cagriffin@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Spottingpotential leaders early (Was: Was today the follow through O'NEil talks about)
Johan,
You wrote:
>BTW, for those who do not know this already: I'm watching RT streaming
>quotes
Which quote service are you using for RT streaming quotes? Just wondering.
Best Regards,
Craig
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 22:09:15 +0200
From: Johan Van Houtven <Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be>
Subject: [CANSLIM] RT streaming quotes
Craig,
http://www.interquote.com
It is good enough, but I'm quite sure there are much better RT quotes
services out there (albeit with a higher price tag). As soon as cable modem
acces is available in my area, I'll probably try one of the better
services. I hear good things about QCharts. http://www.quote.com (if I
remember correctly).
What do the other members here use?
Best Regards,
Johan
>Which quote service are you using for RT streaming quotes? Just wondering.
>
>Best Regards,
>Craig
>
>
>
>-
>
>
Johan ===
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 16:28:11 -0400 (EDT)
From: "Surindra J. Singh" <sjs7b@unix.mail.virginia.edu>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
Nice nice cnaslim post connieAccording to Connie Mack Rea:
>
> Am taking first position in DELL at 43 27/32.
>
> Am assuming that 43.75 will serve as support. Would be inclined to exit
> thereabouts. 43 13/16 has held for two hours.
>
> The EMA is too jumpy to be valid. Am looking to the MACD for decision
> to enter.
>
> DELL has had a spongy price for over three hours. I want to see quite a
> few sales at 44 before I take a second position.
>
> NASDAQ appears to be healing.
>
> Connie Mack
>
> P.S. Am just now seeing some sales at 44.
>
>
> -
>
>
- --
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 17:08:59 -0400
From: Walter Stock <wstock@cgocable.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tomorrow and tomorrow
Hi Frank,
The Nets that I have been following recently are principally
the newer web-equipment companies such as
Redback (RBAK:Nasdaq), Copper Mountain (CMTN:Nasdaq),
Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq), and Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq).
I don't for a minute maintain that these are Canslim,
although I suspect that some of them will be in the future.
For now these are short-term high-risk trades.
Interestingly, as a group they advanced in spite of the
carnage in tech today.
The other Net companies that I follow are the Net Leaders,
chiefly AOL, YHOO, AMZN, EBAY, CMGI, EGRP, ATHM,
and DCLK. Don't have any in my trading accounts, but I
believe that the net leadership has put in a bottom, and may
continue to rally. I speculate that the real action may wait
until after Labor Day.
The DOT Index closed today neatly sandwiched at 566 in the
narrow band between the 50DMA at 577 and the 200DMA
at 541. The next few days will be fascinating.
Appreciate your surrogate group information, Frank.
Hope this has answered your questions.
Walter
Oakville, Ontario, Canada
"Frank V. Wolynski" wrote:
> At 11:40 PM 8/18/99 +0200, you wrote:
> >At 05:01 PM 8/18/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >>Hi Johan,
> What is your take? Whick dot com stocks
> >do you see moving higher in the next day or two?
> >
> >>The net stocks have rallied 6 out the past 7 days, including today.
> >>They have also outperformed every other index that I am aware of,
> >>over the last week and a half, and yes I am looking at the DOT
> >>index, same as you.
> >>
>
> Some interesting data derived from my group surrogates:
> Price Action 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/13 8/12
> Int-Ecommerce 3.9% 3.3% 1.0% 3.1% 1.7%
> Int-Network/Security 2.0% 1.4% 2.3% 5.2% 0.7%
> Int-ISP/Content 1.7% 3.3% 0.5% 5.2% 2.4%
> Int-Sftware 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 2.1% 1.6%
>
> Volume Percentage
> Int-Ecommerce 140% 119% 69% 67% 78%
> Int-Network/Security 84% 80% 72% 88% 85%
> Int-ISP/Content 89% 68% 60% 68% 84%
> Int-Software 269% 103% 74% 93% 78%
>
> Higher highs and higher lows in all the Inet groups.
>
> Some recent (less than a year old) IPO's in the group that did well today:
> BNBN, BGST, CARI, COOL, ETYS, FASH, MMPT, ORCC had great days considering.
> Closing at or near their highs were BNBN, BGST, FASH.
> Big Vol increases on BNBN and BGST.
>
> A bit of churning as profits are locked in and gains are tested wouldn't be
> surprising.
>
> Regards,
> Frank
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 23:30:05 +0200
From: Johan Van Houtven <Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Broadband
At 05:08 PM 8/19/99 -0400, you wrote:
>Hi Frank,
>
>The Nets that I have been following recently are principally
>the newer web-equipment companies such as
>Redback (RBAK:Nasdaq), Copper Mountain (CMTN:Nasdaq),
>Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq), and Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq).
Most of these are broadband plays. Broadband, both cable/wire and wireless
is the technology 'speculative' growth area for the comming months if not
years IMHO.
Johan ===
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 16:47:25 -0500
From: Chris Hudson <CHudson@karta.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Broadband
What do you net-players think of digital subscriber lines (PDYN is one
company that comes to mind).
-- Chris
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Johan Van Houtven [mailto:Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be]
> Sent: Thursday, August 19, 1999 4:30 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Broadband
>
>
> At 05:08 PM 8/19/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >Hi Frank,
> >
> >The Nets that I have been following recently are principally
> >the newer web-equipment companies such as
> >Redback (RBAK:Nasdaq), Copper Mountain (CMTN:Nasdaq),
> >Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq), and Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq).
>
> Most of these are broadband plays. Broadband, both cable/wire
> and wireless
> is the technology 'speculative' growth area for the comming
> months if not
> years IMHO.
>
>
>
> Johan ===
>
>
>
> -
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 18:07:16 -0400
From: postwhit@sover.net
Subject: [CANSLIM] ( * )
> Hope you make a killin'. When did you go short?
Scaled into Sept. OEX Puts yesterday. Don't like the looks of the
longer term pieces of the puzzle, yet. So, it may be a short term
*thang*. Like the distribution day, and like even better the fact that
we took out yesterday's lows by a good margin and the volume was weak on
the late rally. Generally, when you have a distribution day this early
on after a follow through day, the thing is *sour* if that day's low is
taken out by more than half the day's trading range. So, for now, I'll
stay short and *hope* for a retest of the recent lows. And I'll *fear*
that my head will listen to the *noise*, blah, blah, blah.....and do
something asystematically idiotic!!
> >For those whose technicals (and nads, or comparables) support such
> >things, DELL Sept. 55 Puts are all but without premium. Looked like a
> >bunch of churning in the stock, with huge blocks sitting on the offer
> >all day long after the open. Short that, as well.
> Gutsy. Eventhough I wouldn't think of going long DELL for the intermediate
> term (a few months). I has overhead and it is "passee" as we says overhere.
> GTW looks good though.
All I can tell you is that some major blocks keep hanging on the offer.
Ask Connie if that's something like what I see in the negative MF on the
1 minute chart since 11:00 am yesterday. He won't even look for my
passes, these days.
Jeffry
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 18:30:59 -0400
From: postwhit@sover.net
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sentiment - Johan
> Market Vane + put/call ratio + % of oversold industry groups.
Oh....I only watch one, and it's showing nothing like a good bottom, at
this point.
Jeffry
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 18:48:20 -0400
From: postwhit@sover.net
Subject: [CANSLIM] Tomorrow - Earl
> Date: Wed, 18 Aug 1999 19:27:37 -0700
> From: "Earl Setser" <esetser@csolutions.net>
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tomorrow and tomorrow
>
> I believe that WON would say this rally (as confirmed by the
> Follow-Through) is alive until we violate the previous lows. At that point
> we could write the follow-through off as a "head-fake" as the IBD has been
> saying. Is this a proper read on how to watch the market per WON??
I don't "read" it (WON, HTMMIS or "M") that way, Earl. Simple comment
is that rally failure usually happens within the *window* and is often a
"distribution day" which is nowhere near the recent intraday low (or
high, for that matter).
We are still in the *window* off the recent low you point to, and by
that I mean we could still see 1% days on volume through next Tuesday.
And, my experience suggest that while you are in the *window*, you don't
want to see a distribution day as convincing as yesterday. It suggest
that the signal was a false one. Take out the distribution day low by a
convincing margin (like 1/2 the days range added to the distribution day
low), and it is a sign of trouble, IMO. That's what we saw on
Wednesday.
The previous low is, indeed, important to watch when we are within the
*window* and still waiting for follow through.
Also, I think it is important to look more broadly than just price and
volume. You need to pick a few additional indicators (not too many, of
course) as you watch these things unfold. Such as....where is the
leadership and how is it performing, the A/D (although it lags,
somewhat, it is important in the midst of the alleged *rally*) and most
importantly, the sentiment. The character of the alleged *confirmation*
day is, as everyone has been discussing, important, as well. I'm not
"convinced".
All of these indicators *suggest* that this thing is not over, that the
*confirmation* was no confirmation at all, that we shouldn't be
convinced....yet. Another 1% on volume day, without taking out the
recent low, between now and next Tuesday might change my tune.
Jeff
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 18:08:00 -0500
From: Dave Squires <dcsquires@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ( * )
Interesting comments Jeffry. I bought puts yesterday also. IMO, the
set-up has been perfect. I light volume rally follow by lack of market
response to the good news on the CPI, DELL and AMAT, follow by heavy
volume selling. That said, I don't care for the lack of follow
through(read volume). Every day closer to the FOMC meeting means a more
noncommittal market. I want to see some good downside here or I am gone.
The most recent decline was VERY ugly and from just market action I
expected a rally failure followed by new lows but the PPI and CPI
reinstated the "New Paradigm" and as such I think the bottom could hold
on a retest. We shall see.
I have yet to see MANY quality breakouts. Look at the AMGN
breakout....pitifull. Of course, broadband infrastructure companies are
a notable exception. GO BRCD!!
Good Trading
DSquires
postwhit@sover.net wrote:
>
> > Hope you make a killin'. When did you go short?
>
> Scaled into Sept. OEX Puts yesterday. Don't like the looks of the
> longer term pieces of the puzzle, yet. So, it may be a short term
> *thang*. Like the distribution day, and like even better the fact that
> we took out yesterday's lows by a good margin and the volume was weak on
> the late rally. Generally, when you have a distribution day this early
> on after a follow through day, the thing is *sour* if that day's low is
> taken out by more than half the day's trading range. So, for now, I'll
> stay short and *hope* for a retest of the recent lows. And I'll *fear*
> that my head will listen to the *noise*, blah, blah, blah.....and do
> something asystematically idiotic!!
>
> > >For those whose technicals (and nads, or comparables) support such
> > >things, DELL Sept. 55 Puts are all but without premium. Looked like a
> > >bunch of churning in the stock, with huge blocks sitting on the offer
> > >all day long after the open. Short that, as well.
>
> > Gutsy. Eventhough I wouldn't think of going long DELL for the intermediate
> > term (a few months). I has overhead and it is "passee" as we says overhere.
> > GTW looks good though.
>
> All I can tell you is that some major blocks keep hanging on the offer.
> Ask Connie if that's something like what I see in the negative MF on the
> 1 minute chart since 11:00 am yesterday. He won't even look for my
> passes, these days.
>
> Jeffry
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 1999 18:09:31 -0500
From: Dave Squires <dcsquires@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sentiment - Johan
postwhit@sover.net wrote:
>
> > Market Vane + put/call ratio + % of oversold industry groups.
>
> Oh....I only watch one, and it's showing nothing like a good bottom, at
> this point.
>
> Jeffry
>
> -
It easy to follow them all!
http://www.proinvest.com/home/bulls.htm
This site is updated every Sunday.
Good Trading,
DSquirs
- -
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 20 Aug 1999 11:39:30 -0400
From: Connie Mack Rea <rea1@dp.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
Am jumping the indicators a bit, but have taken a second position at
43.37
The EMA approached but did not reach a doubling. No matter, the MACD
did not confirm.
Notice that the Volume+ and Volume have diminished 80%. The OBV also
has flattened. Momentum is modestly and momentarily positive.
Today is an instance in which the EMA and MACD have not given firm
signals. It is then that you go to other indicators; these other
indicators do not give buy and sell signals. At most, they give a
context to read the EMA and MACD.
The NASDAQ is a further context to read any indicator.
Action yesterday, and today thus far, were days that the inexperienced
trader ought to have been on the sidelines. If things don't look the
way you'd like, just don't trade. I.e., when the EMA and MACD don't
give firm signals, I either don't trade or trade just around the
periphery.
As I am writing this, the OBV has turned to a positive divergence, and
Volume+ is slightly better.
I have also taken a small position in CPQ.
Connie Mack
- -
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 20 Aug 1999 15:31:01 -0400
From: Connie Mack Rea <rea1@dp.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
I have taken a further position in DELL at 42.62. This will be buying
down to reduce my overall price. 42.62-75 is a good support. Break
this support and there is no recourse except to exit at a loss.
I do not advise this procedure unless you are experienced and willing to
take a speculative position--one that, if not exited properly, will lead
to further losses.
My averaged price is now 43.12.
Connie Mack
- -
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 20 Aug 1999 15:43:50 -0400
From: Connie Mack Rea <rea1@dp.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack]
The last 20 minutes of trading in DELL will give you an idea of how
dangerous trading can be for the inexperienced.
DELL is highly traded and highly volatile. The last 20 minutes is full
of high tech laser-guided missiles and plain old hand grenades--any one
of which can bring you harm.
Connie Mack
- -
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #680
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