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1999-06-13
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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #626
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Precedence: bulk
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Sunday, June 13 1999 Volume 02 : Number 626
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] On a Fed Rate Hike
Re: [CANSLIM] On a Fed Rate Hike
Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Buys
Re: [CANSLIM] SHOO
Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Buys
[CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
[CANSLIM] Bases and the dark side!
Re: [CANSLIM] SHOO
Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
[CANSLIM] hello
Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
RE: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
[CANSLIM] JVLN [Connie Mack]
Re: [CANSLIM] SHOO
Re: [CANSLIM] CMED Breakout.
[CANSLIM] TTIL & GNTX
Re: [CANSLIM] TTIL & GNTX
Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 11:25:04 +0200
From: Johan Van Houtven <click@ping.be>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On a Fed Rate Hike
Tom wrote:
>If the Feds do hike, it will clear the air of all the
>uncertainty, and likely do little damage. If they don't it
>will extend that uncertainty out to the August meeting, and
>add to the usual summer doldrums, light volume, and
>consequent volatility. Not to mention "market fears". So
>while I'm not convinced of a June hike, it still may be the
>best thing for us.
Tom, could you please try to define what you mean with "summer doldrums"?
I thought you meant light volume, because some players are on holiday. When
you have light volume, higher volatility is possible.
BUT do you also believe that "summer doldrums" means that the likelyhood of
a sustained rally is much lower during the summer doldrums?
When, from your viewpoint, do the summer doldrums start and end?
Thanks.
Johan
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 08:53:53 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On a Fed Rate Hike
Hi Johan,
You are correct, my reference to the summer doldrums is that
of volume diminishing (e.g. liquidity evaporating) due to
many people (both investors, stockbrokers, and analysts, not
to mention corp CEOs and PR types) being on vacation or
otherwise preoccupied). The period runs from early June thru
the end of August.
Sustaining a rally is more difficult because of the absence
of a portion of the players. However, the past few years
have shown signs of changing this seasonal pattern, so it's
not as predictable as before. But any rally nonetheless is
suspect and should be watched more closely as the lighter
volume means it is easier to reverse it. It's much like a
larger version of the rally preceding a long weekend, when
the top producers take off early on Friday, then return to
work on Tuesday and discover that ABC is trading at $xxx and
take profits, completely reversing on volume what happened
the prior Friday on light volume.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html
- -----Original Message-----
From: Johan Van Houtven <click@ping.be>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Date: Sunday, June 13, 1999 5:56 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On a Fed Rate Hike
Tom wrote:
>If the Feds do hike, it will clear the air of all the
>uncertainty, and likely do little damage. If they don't it
>will extend that uncertainty out to the August meeting, and
>add to the usual summer doldrums, light volume, and
>consequent volatility. Not to mention "market fears". So
>while I'm not convinced of a June hike, it still may be the
>best thing for us.
Tom, could you please try to define what you mean with
"summer doldrums"?
I thought you meant light volume, because some players are
on holiday. When
you have light volume, higher volatility is possible.
BUT do you also believe that "summer doldrums" means that
the likelyhood of
a sustained rally is much lower during the summer doldrums?
When, from your viewpoint, do the summer doldrums start and
end?
Thanks.
Johan
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 09:09:02 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Buys
Earl,
On TTIL - by Friday it was already over 10% extended from
its $8 base, be careful and keep tight stops in case it
retreats back into its long base.
On GNTX, it looks to me more like a failed breakout,
wouldn't touch it till I saw evidence of a fresh attempt to
breakout.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html
- -----Original Message-----
From: Earl Setser <esetser@csolutions.net>
To: canslim@xmission.com <canslim@xmission.com>
Date: Friday, June 11, 1999 5:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Possible Buys
Here are two I'm going for. TTIL broke out above 9 today (I
bought this
one today, thanks to Marc Laniado for the heads up). GNTX
broke out a few
days ago and fell back to the break-out price today with the
weak market
(looking at maybe buying tomorrow). What does the group
think?
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 09:19:45 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SHOO
Bruce,
I don't see a cup and handle here, nor do I see a breakout
currently. It had a nice base around $8, which it left in
late April (per a DGO chart). Volume has been on the heavy
side since then. But it now is sitting at a price where the
old "rule of thumb" ratios of 2X 200DMA and 1.5X 50DMA
suggests it doesn't have that much further to go before
correcting or consolidating. It's spike on heavy volume,
closing up but near the low of the day, suggests a blowoff
top to me.
Bottom line, for me it represents too little potential for
further price gain, too great a potential for falling back.
As to your question on industry groups, generally every
industry group deserves a look, you can never be sure which
one may be the next leadership group. However, tech groups
tend to have the greatest innovation and new developments,
along with fastest growth in earnings and sales. I have
developed my personal biases from experience, so I won't
consider banks, biotechs and medical groups. But I will
occasionally look at medical related groups (e.g.
instruments) where new technology offers some opportunities
for accelerated earnings.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html
- -----Original Message-----
From: Bruce Perry <bperry@cisco.com>
To: canslim@xmission.com <canslim@xmission.com>
Date: Friday, June 11, 1999 6:17 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd. (NASD:SHOO)
Long Island City, NY
( EPS 96 / RPS 90 / GRS A / ROE A / Acc-Dist A )
SmartSelect in 6/11 issue of IBD
This one's not semiconducter or cable & wireless. It's not
even in the tech industry group.
To borrow from a company overview; "..designs contemporary
footware under the Steve Madden and David Aaron brand names
for women aged 16 to 45.."
The company also has its own retail distribution network
across the US, with 4 new outlets announced within the last
month.
New 52-week high today. Showing a deep cup w/o the handle
(as of 6/4). Latest IBD Vol% Change = -59%. Could it be
forming a low volume base?
Is this industry even worth a second look, or is it better
to stick with tech?
- - Bruce
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 09:59:27 -0700
From: "Earl Setser" <esetser@csolutions.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Buys
Tom, Thanks for the input. I'm not very experienced on the technical side.
Let me tell you my thinking on these two and see what suggestions you (or
others) may have.
TTIL - based on the previous intra-day highs, I picked 8 3/4 as the "pivot
point" based on a close at that level. I purchased the stock on Thursday
near the close at 8 13/16 and have a mental stop at 8 (since stops aren't
allowed on this stock).
GNTX - I have selected 32 as the pivot on this one, but missed the initial
B/O. Based on some conversations in this group, I watched for a dip back
to the general pivot point range. I bought at 31.75 on Friday. I think
the idea was sometimes the B/O is quickly overbought based on many
CANSLIMers jumping on board the same day. Many times the stock comes back
down to the pivot before moving back up. I guess a failed B/O would look
about the same, so I'm not sure what I should be looking for on this one.
I've set a stop at 28, but after looking at it, I'm going back up to 29.
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Buys
Date: 13 Jun 1999 09:09:02 -0400
Earl,
On TTIL - by Friday it was already over 10% extended from
its $8 base, be careful and keep tight stops in case it
retreats back into its long base.
On GNTX, it looks to me more like a failed breakout,
wouldn't touch it till I saw evidence of a fresh attempt to
breakout.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html
- -----Original Message-----
Here are two I'm going for. TTIL broke out above 9 today (I
bought this
one today, thanks to Marc Laniado for the heads up). GNTX
broke out a few
days ago and fell back to the break-out price today with the
weak market
(looking at maybe buying tomorrow). What does the group
think?
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 14:46:29 -0400
From: Hugh Fader <hfader@hotpop.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
Here is my updated watchlist for what its worth. Critcisms are
welcome.
AEOS Top of 9-week base
AGN Fell back to top of base aftter weak breakout last week
ASND 9-week base just fell to 50 day MA
BLUD Forming a base. Accelerated growth. Top of (weak) group
CGP Broke out of double-bottom Friday
CUBE Broke out of 5-month cwh Friday
FWRD Accelerating earnings 5-week base
MEDQ Top of 6-month base
NOK Nearing top of 8-week base
POS In 8-week base
PTI Flat base
SDLI Accelerating earnings top of 4-week base
SEBL Top of 13-week base
SYKE Forming handle
TIF 6-week base
URS Broke out several weeks ago. Heading back to support
VRTS Back to support after weak breakout
ZLC 9-week base
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 20:32:53 +0100
From: "Marc Laniado" <marclaniado@msn.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Bases and the dark side!
Tom,
You state the base for TTIL is $8 and the breakout is up to $8.80. I am not
sure what should be the threshold for buying: when it breaks through the
high or when it breaks out through the base? If through the high of the base
or trendline of high, this would be make higher in some cases and beyond
10%.
Also, Tom, you revealed your 'dark' side. Can I ask and no-one has ever
replied to this (!) Is it not best in an environment in which interest rates
might rise, falling bonds and stocks to short interest sensitive stocks?
Isn't this safer than looking for stocks reaching new highs when these are
likely to fail because of the general market? This might be especially true
if economic data supports this in next few days.
Thanks for your comments in advance.
In addition to the stocks mentioned by the others which might do well take a
look at,
SANM might be interesting
LRW broke out on Friday (not a great chart)
DY is in a flat base
Marc E Laniado
marclaniado@msn.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 22:17:24 GMT
From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SHOO
On Sat, 12 Jun 1999 13:30:40 -0400, you wrote:
:At 02:32 PM 6/12/99 GMT, you wrote:
:>
:>Based on what I've heard recently, it may be best to avoid tech, at
:>least near term. The tech "streets" are pretty bloody, and I'm not at
:>all sure it's safe to venture into them yet... :)
:>
:>Dan
:>
:>
:
:As one who is 100% (not margin however) invested in technology =
companies,
:this is encouraging to hear! (Wearing my contrarian hat!)=20
:I would certainly be worried if the experts were saying that technology =
IS
:the place to be, and everyone should own them. Run for the hidey holes =
if
:that is the case.=20
I don't have a contrarian hat. I didn't say I was quoting any experts,
however, if you wish to consider me one and bet against me, be my guest.
You will be betting your money in the market, not against mine after
all.
:
:Depending where you are looking in the "Tech Streets" you'll find =
carcases.=20
:The mid to low caps seem to be holding well. Semi's (MCRL, TQNT, CREE,
:others) seem to "be" performing, and I been reading about the end of the
:rally in Elec-Lasers since it began. (Not an endorsement, just a happy
:trader.)
I'm 100% in cash, and I don't really like to be, but if I don't trust my
own *opinion* sometimes, and that's how I feel at this moment. Often I
have a very good feel, but sometimes I don't. I'd just as soon be in
cash at this juncture. My trades have generally been working out well
enough, however I've been somewhat tentative and would have done much
better had I more courage. But that will come, if I don't lose my touch.
:I have many more of this variety I'm just looking for an opportunity at
:which to "pounce". I like some of the newer "networkers" and "telecomm
:svcs/equip" here also.=20
:
:I attend an annual conference on Advanced Technologies and during the
:sessions, attendees are asked to predict advances in technologies during
:the next 12 months.=20
:
:Every year we analyze our previous years results and laugh when we learn
:that we are only 20% accurate. 80% of our "Professional" opinion is dead
:wrong! That's valuable analytical proof that one needs to concentrate on
:"What Is", not what others and themselves "Think".=20
:
:As Yodda told the young Jedi Knight, "Think not, Do!".=20
I saved a fortune cookie maxim that reads: "Man who think first will
have good fortune." I'm not a big Star Wars fan.
:
:Not that these and other "Tech-groups" aren't extended and a number of =
the
:third tiers have kicked up, which is a warning, none-the-less there is
:opportunity if you are careful and brave.=20
Yes, there is always opportunity in the stock market.
:
:"Ripe for a pullback"? Some are, some aren't.=20
:Real Leaders break all the rules.=20
:
:Here's to RS of 99 and expanding EPS!=20
:
:Regards,
:Frank Wolynski
:P.S. We all can't buy just the technologies, who'd buy the other stuff =
if
:we did?=20
Personally, I have a lot of respect for the interest rate jitters we're
seeing. A little like the bull in the china shop kind of angst. We could
get a 6 week rally starting right now, but I won't believe it until I
see it. Last week was pretty down. I will not try to anticipate the
turnaround.
Dan
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 16:31:17 -0700
From: "Earl Setser" <esetser@csolutions.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
I wouldn't consider this criticism, but I wondered about the differences
from my list. Remember that I am a new CANSLIMer, so these are mostly for
discussion. There are several stocks that we have both listed. For grins,
I looked quickly to see why I wasn't considering the others you have listed.
Outside of my market cap (S) limits - AGN, ASND, BLUD (small), NOK
Failed IBD test (6/12) of 80/80/B/B/B minimum - CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, ZLC
Earnings growth below my threshold - CUBE (Qtrly), MEDQ (3/5 yr)
ROE < 17% - URS
The others are all on my list also.
At 02:46 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
>Here is my updated watchlist for what its worth. Critcisms are
>welcome.
>
>AEOS Top of 9-week base
>AGN Fell back to top of base aftter weak breakout last week
>ASND 9-week base just fell to 50 day MA
>BLUD Forming a base. Accelerated growth. Top of (weak) group
>CGP Broke out of double-bottom Friday
>CUBE Broke out of 5-month cwh Friday
>FWRD Accelerating earnings 5-week base
>MEDQ Top of 6-month base
>NOK Nearing top of 8-week base
>POS In 8-week base
>PTI Flat base
>SDLI Accelerating earnings top of 4-week base
>SEBL Top of 13-week base
>SYKE Forming handle
>TIF 6-week base
>URS Broke out several weeks ago. Heading back to support
>VRTS Back to support after weak breakout
>ZLC 9-week base
>
>
>
>-
>
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 09:13:45 -0700 (MST)
From: Craig Hogan <chogan@primenet.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] hello
Hi-
I'm new to the list, but I've read O'Neil's book several times and I
believe in his methods. I was wondering what the members of the list
thought of the following stocks that have caught my eye recently:
CMED
JVLN
I was in CMED earlier, and now I'm in JVLN. I'd like to hear your
opinions!
thanks,
Craig
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 19:29:20 -0400
From: Hugh Fader <hfader@hotpop.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
Earl,
Thanks for the feedback. I'm pretty new at this also. I've only been using
CANSLIM since last fall. So take everything I say with a grain of salt.
I have stopped looking too closely at market caps. O'Neil's recent statements
are to look at whether the market is favoring large caps or small caps. It seems
to be favoring both (or neither). Witness the recent runup of the Dow and
improvement of the Russel 2000.
I have been using the Daily Graphs Online Stocks Approaching New Highs report to
update a watchlist every week. It only filters RS and EPS so the other ratings
may be "out of spec". I scan this list for favorable chart patterns. Let's take
a closer look at the others you mention:
CGP - Has SMR D (falling sales) and GRS C, but GRS is on the rise
POS - GRS C and falling (should probably drop this one)
PTI - SMR C (ROE 5%)
TIF - ACC/DIS C
ZLC - RS 76, SMR C (carryover from several weeks ago when RS was > 80)
URS - I get ROE of 19% from DGO
I would have caught these deficiencies before making any buy, but it probably
doesn't make sense to watch stocks that I wouldn't buy. Based on this review, I
will drop CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, and ZLC from my list. I will keep AGN, ASND, BLUD,
NOK, and URS.
Thanks for prompting me to look more closely.
Earl Setser wrote:
> I wouldn't consider this criticism, but I wondered about the differences
> from my list. Remember that I am a new CANSLIMer, so these are mostly for
> discussion. There are several stocks that we have both listed. For grins,
> I looked quickly to see why I wasn't considering the others you have listed.
>
> Outside of my market cap (S) limits - AGN, ASND, BLUD (small), NOK
> Failed IBD test (6/12) of 80/80/B/B/B minimum - CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, ZLC
> Earnings growth below my threshold - CUBE (Qtrly), MEDQ (3/5 yr)
> ROE < 17% - URS
>
> The others are all on my list also.
>
> At 02:46 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >Here is my updated watchlist for what its worth. Critcisms are
> >welcome.
> >
> >AEOS Top of 9-week base
> >AGN Fell back to top of base aftter weak breakout last week
> >ASND 9-week base just fell to 50 day MA
> >BLUD Forming a base. Accelerated growth. Top of (weak) group
> >CGP Broke out of double-bottom Friday
> >CUBE Broke out of 5-month cwh Friday
> >FWRD Accelerating earnings 5-week base
> >MEDQ Top of 6-month base
> >NOK Nearing top of 8-week base
> >POS In 8-week base
> >PTI Flat base
> >SDLI Accelerating earnings top of 4-week base
> >SEBL Top of 13-week base
> >SYKE Forming handle
> >TIF 6-week base
> >URS Broke out several weeks ago. Heading back to support
> >VRTS Back to support after weak breakout
> >ZLC 9-week base
> >
> >
> >
> >-
> >
> >
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 17:48:56 -0700
From: "Earl Setser" <esetser@csolutions.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
Glad to be of help. You are definitely a "long time" CANSLIMer compared to
me :-).
You know you bring up an interesting point. I have noticed that the
DGO/IBD ROE numbers don't match up with numbers I am finding on the web. I
have looked at several sites and have been using Fidelity for ROE based on
most recent 4 quarters. Most of the web sites seem consistent. Anyone
know why these numbers are different??
As far as shares/size, I am sticking with a $3B cap (float) for now. It
seems there is quite a variation is opinion in the group. For me, this is
about my only exposure to smaller stocks, and I think the opportunities for
a "star" are greater there. I'm not looking to go as small as Tom seems to
like, but then again, I'm sure I'll adjust my approach with time. It's
hard to argue with the performance of the large caps over the last few
years, but I have a very high average size in all of my other investments.
At 07:29 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
>Earl,
>
>Thanks for the feedback. I'm pretty new at this also. I've only been using
>CANSLIM since last fall. So take everything I say with a grain of salt.
>
>I have stopped looking too closely at market caps. O'Neil's recent statements
>are to look at whether the market is favoring large caps or small caps. It
seems
>to be favoring both (or neither). Witness the recent runup of the Dow and
>improvement of the Russel 2000.
>
>I have been using the Daily Graphs Online Stocks Approaching New Highs
report to
>update a watchlist every week. It only filters RS and EPS so the other
ratings
>may be "out of spec". I scan this list for favorable chart patterns. Let's
take
>a closer look at the others you mention:
>
>CGP - Has SMR D (falling sales) and GRS C, but GRS is on the rise
>POS - GRS C and falling (should probably drop this one)
>PTI - SMR C (ROE 5%)
>TIF - ACC/DIS C
>ZLC - RS 76, SMR C (carryover from several weeks ago when RS was > 80)
>URS - I get ROE of 19% from DGO
>
>I would have caught these deficiencies before making any buy, but it probably
>doesn't make sense to watch stocks that I wouldn't buy. Based on this
review, I
>will drop CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, and ZLC from my list. I will keep AGN, ASND,
BLUD,
>NOK, and URS.
>
>Thanks for prompting me to look more closely.
>
>
>Earl Setser wrote:
>
>> I wouldn't consider this criticism, but I wondered about the differences
>> from my list. Remember that I am a new CANSLIMer, so these are mostly for
>> discussion. There are several stocks that we have both listed. For grins,
>> I looked quickly to see why I wasn't considering the others you have
listed.
>>
>> Outside of my market cap (S) limits - AGN, ASND, BLUD (small), NOK
>> Failed IBD test (6/12) of 80/80/B/B/B minimum - CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, ZLC
>> Earnings growth below my threshold - CUBE (Qtrly), MEDQ (3/5 yr)
>> ROE < 17% - URS
>>
>> The others are all on my list also.
>>
>> At 02:46 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
>> >Here is my updated watchlist for what its worth. Critcisms are
>> >welcome.
>> >
>> >AEOS Top of 9-week base
>> >AGN Fell back to top of base aftter weak breakout last week
>> >ASND 9-week base just fell to 50 day MA
>> >BLUD Forming a base. Accelerated growth. Top of (weak) group
>> >CGP Broke out of double-bottom Friday
>> >CUBE Broke out of 5-month cwh Friday
>> >FWRD Accelerating earnings 5-week base
>> >MEDQ Top of 6-month base
>> >NOK Nearing top of 8-week base
>> >POS In 8-week base
>> >PTI Flat base
>> >SDLI Accelerating earnings top of 4-week base
>> >SEBL Top of 13-week base
>> >SYKE Forming handle
>> >TIF 6-week base
>> >URS Broke out several weeks ago. Heading back to support
>> >VRTS Back to support after weak breakout
>> >ZLC 9-week base
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >-
>> >
>> >
>>
>> -
>
>
>-
>
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 19:50:13 -0400
From: Hugh Fader <hfader@hotpop.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
There may be variation in ROE because (I have been told) IBD takes into account
special one-time charges in what it uses for earnings. Can anybody second this?
Earl Setser wrote:
> Glad to be of help. You are definitely a "long time" CANSLIMer compared to
> me :-).
>
> You know you bring up an interesting point. I have noticed that the
> DGO/IBD ROE numbers don't match up with numbers I am finding on the web. I
> have looked at several sites and have been using Fidelity for ROE based on
> most recent 4 quarters. Most of the web sites seem consistent. Anyone
> know why these numbers are different??
>
> As far as shares/size, I am sticking with a $3B cap (float) for now. It
> seems there is quite a variation is opinion in the group. For me, this is
> about my only exposure to smaller stocks, and I think the opportunities for
> a "star" are greater there. I'm not looking to go as small as Tom seems to
> like, but then again, I'm sure I'll adjust my approach with time. It's
> hard to argue with the performance of the large caps over the last few
> years, but I have a very high average size in all of my other investments.
>
>
> At 07:29 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >Earl,
> >
> >Thanks for the feedback. I'm pretty new at this also. I've only been using
> >CANSLIM since last fall. So take everything I say with a grain of salt.
> >
> >I have stopped looking too closely at market caps. O'Neil's recent statements
> >are to look at whether the market is favoring large caps or small caps. It
> seems
> >to be favoring both (or neither). Witness the recent runup of the Dow and
> >improvement of the Russel 2000.
> >
> >I have been using the Daily Graphs Online Stocks Approaching New Highs
> report to
> >update a watchlist every week. It only filters RS and EPS so the other
> ratings
> >may be "out of spec". I scan this list for favorable chart patterns. Let's
> take
> >a closer look at the others you mention:
> >
> >CGP - Has SMR D (falling sales) and GRS C, but GRS is on the rise
> >POS - GRS C and falling (should probably drop this one)
> >PTI - SMR C (ROE 5%)
> >TIF - ACC/DIS C
> >ZLC - RS 76, SMR C (carryover from several weeks ago when RS was > 80)
> >URS - I get ROE of 19% from DGO
> >
> >I would have caught these deficiencies before making any buy, but it probably
> >doesn't make sense to watch stocks that I wouldn't buy. Based on this
> review, I
> >will drop CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, and ZLC from my list. I will keep AGN, ASND,
> BLUD,
> >NOK, and URS.
> >
> >Thanks for prompting me to look more closely.
> >
> >
> >Earl Setser wrote:
> >
> >> I wouldn't consider this criticism, but I wondered about the differences
> >> from my list. Remember that I am a new CANSLIMer, so these are mostly for
> >> discussion. There are several stocks that we have both listed. For grins,
> >> I looked quickly to see why I wasn't considering the others you have
> listed.
> >>
> >> Outside of my market cap (S) limits - AGN, ASND, BLUD (small), NOK
> >> Failed IBD test (6/12) of 80/80/B/B/B minimum - CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, ZLC
> >> Earnings growth below my threshold - CUBE (Qtrly), MEDQ (3/5 yr)
> >> ROE < 17% - URS
> >>
> >> The others are all on my list also.
> >>
> >> At 02:46 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >> >Here is my updated watchlist for what its worth. Critcisms are
> >> >welcome.
> >> >
> >> >AEOS Top of 9-week base
> >> >AGN Fell back to top of base aftter weak breakout last week
> >> >ASND 9-week base just fell to 50 day MA
> >> >BLUD Forming a base. Accelerated growth. Top of (weak) group
> >> >CGP Broke out of double-bottom Friday
> >> >CUBE Broke out of 5-month cwh Friday
> >> >FWRD Accelerating earnings 5-week base
> >> >MEDQ Top of 6-month base
> >> >NOK Nearing top of 8-week base
> >> >POS In 8-week base
> >> >PTI Flat base
> >> >SDLI Accelerating earnings top of 4-week base
> >> >SEBL Top of 13-week base
> >> >SYKE Forming handle
> >> >TIF 6-week base
> >> >URS Broke out several weeks ago. Heading back to support
> >> >VRTS Back to support after weak breakout
> >> >ZLC 9-week base
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >-
> >> >
> >> >
> >>
> >> -
> >
> >
> >-
> >
> >
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 18:05:16 -0600
From: Ben Heffer <bheffer@sopris.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
At 07:29 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
>Earl,
>
>Thanks for the feedback. I'm pretty new at this also. I've only been using
>CANSLIM since last fall. So take everything I say with a grain of salt.
>
>I have stopped looking too closely at market caps. O'Neil's recent statements
>are to look at whether the market is favoring large caps or small caps. It
seems
>to be favoring both (or neither). Witness the recent runup of the Dow and
>improvement of the Russel 2000.
>
>I have been using the Daily Graphs Online Stocks Approaching New Highs
report to
>update a watchlist every week. It only filters RS and EPS so the other
ratings
>may be "out of spec". I scan this list for favorable chart patterns. Let's
take
>a closer look at the others you mention:
>
>CGP - Has SMR D (falling sales) and GRS C, but GRS is on the rise
>POS - GRS C and falling (should probably drop this one)
>PTI - SMR C (ROE 5%)
>TIF - ACC/DIS C
>ZLC - RS 76, SMR C (carryover from several weeks ago when RS was > 80)
>URS - I get ROE of 19% from DGO
I am unfamiliar with your letters Could you please tell me what SMR D, GRS
C stand for. Thanks.
Ben Heffer
963-2428 home
945-9183 work
Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design
mailto:bheffer@sopris.net
ICQ# is 8736058
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 17:11:06 -0700
From: "mikelu" <mikelu@foxinternet.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
SMR composite of Sales/Margins/ROE
GRS group relative strength
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Ben Heffer
Sent: Sunday, June 13, 1999 5:05 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
At 07:29 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
>Earl,
>
>Thanks for the feedback. I'm pretty new at this also. I've only been using
>CANSLIM since last fall. So take everything I say with a grain of salt.
>
>I have stopped looking too closely at market caps. O'Neil's recent
statements
>are to look at whether the market is favoring large caps or small caps. It
seems
>to be favoring both (or neither). Witness the recent runup of the Dow and
>improvement of the Russel 2000.
>
>I have been using the Daily Graphs Online Stocks Approaching New Highs
report to
>update a watchlist every week. It only filters RS and EPS so the other
ratings
>may be "out of spec". I scan this list for favorable chart patterns. Let's
take
>a closer look at the others you mention:
>
>CGP - Has SMR D (falling sales) and GRS C, but GRS is on the rise
>POS - GRS C and falling (should probably drop this one)
>PTI - SMR C (ROE 5%)
>TIF - ACC/DIS C
>ZLC - RS 76, SMR C (carryover from several weeks ago when RS was > 80)
>URS - I get ROE of 19% from DGO
I am unfamiliar with your letters Could you please tell me what SMR D, GRS
C stand for. Thanks.
Ben Heffer
963-2428 home
945-9183 work
Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design
mailto:bheffer@sopris.net
ICQ# is 8736058
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 20:19:49 -0400
From: Connie Mack Rea <rea1@dp.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] JVLN [Connie Mack]
Evening Craig--
Welcome to the group. You won't find a more civil and knowledgeable
bunch anywhere.
I'm the non-resident trader in the group. And I like the looks of JVLN.
What I always point out is that you'll help yourself investing if you
know a little about trading.
I'll presume that JVLN is a CS candidate. For me, as a trader, it is
also a nice candidate. E.g., a buy between 14.5 and 14.75 and a sell
about 15.5 is reasonable and low risk. I'd wait to see if I were right
about what looks like a correction before entering; it could retreat back
to 13.87.
JVLN came off of a four-week double bottom base, broke out, retreated,
rose to resistance about 13.87, retreated, and broke through that
resistance. If it can hold above 14.5--give it two to three days--then
you meet overhead at 15.5 and 16.25.
It is above its 25, 50, and 100 day EMAs; hence it is trending nicely.
A part of its strength is seen if you will apply a pair of Bollinger
Bands.
Both traders and investors like the 10/50 EMA and use it as a buy/sell
indicator. The stock is significantly above both; hence it is strong.
Several of my MACD settings show strength. My stochastics hint at over
bought.
I would, however, expect a modest correction, probably starting tomorrow
or the next day. Nothing to worry about. A move back to 13.87 would be
normal, but I wouldn't take any further loss.
My 3/7/10 EMA gave a buy five days ago. This a very fast buy indicator.
A bit fast for an investor, perhaps.
Nice choice, Craig. Keep up the good work.
Connie Mack
Craig Hogan wrote:
> Hi-
>
> I'm new to the list, but I've read O'Neil's book several times and I
> believe in his methods. I was wondering what the members of the list
> thought of the following stocks that have caught my eye recently:
>
> CMED
> JVLN
>
> I was in CMED earlier, and now I'm in JVLN. I'd like to hear your
> opinions!
>
> thanks,
>
> Craig
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 21:14:25 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SHOO
>
>Personally, I have a lot of respect for the interest rate jitters we're
>seeing. A little like the bull in the china shop kind of angst. We could
>get a 6 week rally starting right now, but I won't believe it until I
>see it. Last week was pretty down. I will not try to anticipate the
>turnaround.
>
>Dan
>
Well said. When they sell them, they eventually sell them all.
Not anticipating, just holding on to positions that are acting well.
Watching the stops closely. I'll drop them when my stops are hit.
I use a trend following intermediate timing model which has an absolute
value of either +87 or -87. The + count being an indication of a rally, the
- - indicating the breadth and acceleration of the decline.
Right now the +'s dropped from 24 to 13 and the -'s kicked up from 63 to 74.
More negative, in other words.
It doesn't find the exact top and bottom, but close enough that I get a
feel for further upside or downside. It is indicating further downside.
Best Regards,
Frank Wolynski
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 21:52:20 EDT
From: CA011667@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMED Breakout.
Dan,
I was on vacation last week so I have not been able to reply.I also own
shares at much lower prices as I have accumulated for some months now.I was
surprised and dissapointed when I heard the CFO resigned.The good news is
the stock rebounded strongly after the initial reaction downward.Do you have
any comments or insights on this.Chris.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 22:08:44 -0500
From: Dave Cameron <dfcameron@ameritech.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] TTIL & GNTX
I'm not Tom - but one of the "others"....
Earl Setser wrote:
>
> Tom, Thanks for the input. I'm not very experienced on the technical side.
> Let me tell you my thinking on these two and see what suggestions you (or
> others) may have.
>
> TTIL - based on the previous intra-day highs, I picked 8 3/4 as the "pivot
> point" based on a close at that level. I purchased the stock on Thursday
> near the close at 8 13/16 and have a mental stop at 8 (since stops aren't
> allowed on this stock).
TTIL looks very good. I generally agree with your pivot point. I'd
have been a bit more conservative and used 9, but same ballpark. The
only real caution I'd throw out is that you are deviating a bit from
O'Neil's preference about staying away from stocks trading under $12.
>
> GNTX - I have selected 32 as the pivot on this one, but missed the initial
> B/O. Based on some conversations in this group, I watched for a dip back
> to the general pivot point range. I bought at 31.75 on Friday. I think
> the idea was sometimes the B/O is quickly overbought based on many
> CANSLIMers jumping on board the same day. Many times the stock comes back
> down to the pivot before moving back up. I guess a failed B/O would look
> about the same, so I'm not sure what I should be looking for on this one.
> I've set a stop at 28, but after looking at it, I'm going back up to 29.
On GNTX, the base you refer to is too short for me. I could see buying
at 25 back in early April, but if I were a betting man, I would bet that
it bounces around between 27 and 33 for a while. I could be wrong, but
its not a high enough probability "breakout" for me.
Just my 2 cents,
Dave Cameron
dfcameron@ameritech.net
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 21:50:50 -0700
From: "Earl Setser" <esetser@csolutions.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTIL & GNTX
Thanks DAVE. (I didn't mean to point to Tom exclusively.) You do bring up
a point on bases that I would like to explore with the group. I believe
WON suggested a 6-8 week minimum base. What do yo guys think a good base
timeframe is?
I purchased a couple of stocks on very short bases before I got through
WON's book, and then realized I was watching the charts to short term. I'm
now looking for at least 6 weeks before I consider a stock, but I'm
wondering if I should be tending towards longer ones if possible.
And on TTIL, I decided to try out a lower price stock. I haven't been
using the $12 guide in my screening, but I really haven't seen any other
low priced stocks get through the screen anyway. I don't look at the lower
priced NASDAQ listing in IBD.
At 10:08 PM 6/13/99 -0500, you wrote:
>I'm not Tom - but one of the "others"....
>
>Earl Setser wrote:
>>
>> Tom, Thanks for the input. I'm not very experienced on the technical side.
>> Let me tell you my thinking on these two and see what suggestions you (or
>> others) may have.
>>
>> TTIL - based on the previous intra-day highs, I picked 8 3/4 as the "pivot
>> point" based on a close at that level. I purchased the stock on Thursday
>> near the close at 8 13/16 and have a mental stop at 8 (since stops aren't
>> allowed on this stock).
>
>TTIL looks very good. I generally agree with your pivot point. I'd
>have been a bit more conservative and used 9, but same ballpark. The
>only real caution I'd throw out is that you are deviating a bit from
>O'Neil's preference about staying away from stocks trading under $12.
>
>>
>> GNTX - I have selected 32 as the pivot on this one, but missed the initial
>> B/O. Based on some conversations in this group, I watched for a dip back
>> to the general pivot point range. I bought at 31.75 on Friday. I think
>> the idea was sometimes the B/O is quickly overbought based on many
>> CANSLIMers jumping on board the same day. Many times the stock comes back
>> down to the pivot before moving back up. I guess a failed B/O would look
>> about the same, so I'm not sure what I should be looking for on this one.
>> I've set a stop at 28, but after looking at it, I'm going back up to 29.
>
>On GNTX, the base you refer to is too short for me. I could see buying
>at 25 back in early April, but if I were a betting man, I would bet that
>it bounces around between 27 and 33 for a while. I could be wrong, but
>its not a high enough probability "breakout" for me.
>
>Just my 2 cents,
>
>Dave Cameron
>dfcameron@ameritech.net
>
>-
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 23:55:34 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
Daily Graphs uses earnings on a "continuation" basis, thus
any "non recurring" events, both gains and charges, are
excluded. This exclusion applies both to the EPS shown on
the charts, as well as to the long term ROE.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
chat with me at ICQ # 5568838
get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hugh Fader <hfader@hotpop.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Date: Sunday, June 13, 1999 7:50 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated watchlist
There may be variation in ROE because (I have been told) IBD
takes into account
special one-time charges in what it uses for earnings. Can
anybody second this?
Earl Setser wrote:
> Glad to be of help. You are definitely a "long time"
CANSLIMer compared to
> me :-).
>
> You know you bring up an interesting point. I have
noticed that the
> DGO/IBD ROE numbers don't match up with numbers I am
finding on the web. I
> have looked at several sites and have been using Fidelity
for ROE based on
> most recent 4 quarters. Most of the web sites seem
consistent. Anyone
> know why these numbers are different??
>
> As far as shares/size, I am sticking with a $3B cap
(float) for now. It
> seems there is quite a variation is opinion in the group.
For me, this is
> about my only exposure to smaller stocks, and I think the
opportunities for
> a "star" are greater there. I'm not looking to go as
small as Tom seems to
> like, but then again, I'm sure I'll adjust my approach
with time. It's
> hard to argue with the performance of the large caps over
the last few
> years, but I have a very high average size in all of my
other investments.
>
>
> At 07:29 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >Earl,
> >
> >Thanks for the feedback. I'm pretty new at this also.
I've only been using
> >CANSLIM since last fall. So take everything I say with a
grain of salt.
> >
> >I have stopped looking too closely at market caps.
O'Neil's recent statements
> >are to look at whether the market is favoring large caps
or small caps. It
> seems
> >to be favoring both (or neither). Witness the recent
runup of the Dow and
> >improvement of the Russel 2000.
> >
> >I have been using the Daily Graphs Online Stocks
Approaching New Highs
> report to
> >update a watchlist every week. It only filters RS and EPS
so the other
> ratings
> >may be "out of spec". I scan this list for favorable
chart patterns. Let's
> take
> >a closer look at the others you mention:
> >
> >CGP - Has SMR D (falling sales) and GRS C, but GRS is on
the rise
> >POS - GRS C and falling (should probably drop this one)
> >PTI - SMR C (ROE 5%)
> >TIF - ACC/DIS C
> >ZLC - RS 76, SMR C (carryover from several weeks ago when
RS was > 80)
> >URS - I get ROE of 19% from DGO
> >
> >I would have caught these deficiencies before making any
buy, but it probably
> >doesn't make sense to watch stocks that I wouldn't buy.
Based on this
> review, I
> >will drop CGP, POS, PTI, TIF, and ZLC from my list. I
will keep AGN, ASND,
> BLUD,
> >NOK, and URS.
> >
> >Thanks for prompting me to look more closely.
> >
> >
> >Earl Setser wrote:
> >
> >> I wouldn't consider this criticism, but I wondered
about the differences
> >> from my list. Remember that I am a new CANSLIMer, so
these are mostly for
> >> discussion. There are several stocks that we have both
listed. For grins,
> >> I looked quickly to see why I wasn't considering the
others you have
> listed.
> >>
> >> Outside of my market cap (S) limits - AGN, ASND, BLUD
(small), NOK
> >> Failed IBD test (6/12) of 80/80/B/B/B minimum - CGP,
POS, PTI, TIF, ZLC
> >> Earnings growth below my threshold - CUBE (Qtrly), MEDQ
(3/5 yr)
> >> ROE < 17% - URS
> >>
> >> The others are all on my list also.
> >>
> >> At 02:46 PM 6/13/99 -0400, you wrote:
> >> >Here is my updated watchlist for what its worth.
Critcisms are
> >> >welcome.
> >> >
> >> >AEOS Top of 9-week base
> >> >AGN Fell back to top of base aftter weak breakout last
week
> >> >ASND 9-week base just fell to 50 day MA
> >> >BLUD Forming a base. Accelerated growth. Top of (weak)
group
> >> >CGP Broke out of double-bottom Friday
> >> >CUBE Broke out of 5-month cwh Friday
> >> >FWRD Accelerating earnings 5-week base
> >> >MEDQ Top of 6-month base
> >> >NOK Nearing top of 8-week base
> >> >POS In 8-week base
> >> >PTI Flat base
> >> >SDLI Accelerating earnings top of 4-week base
> >> >SEBL Top of 13-week base
> >> >SYKE Forming handle
> >> >TIF 6-week base
> >> >URS Broke out several weeks ago. Heading back to
support
> >> >VRTS Back to support after weak breakout
> >> >ZLC 9-week base
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >-
> >> >
> >> >
> >>
> >> -
> >
> >
> >-
> >
> >
>
> -
- -
- -
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #626
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