ftp.xmission.com/2014.06.ftp.xmission.com.tar/ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/archive/v02.n494

Internet Message Format | 1999-01-07 | 23KB

From: [e-mail] (canslim-digest)
To: [e-mail]
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #494
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: [e-mail]
Errors-To: [e-mail]
Precedence: bulk
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-No-Archive: yes

canslim-digest         Friday, January 8 1999         Volume 02 : Number 494



In this issue:

       [CANSLIM] Craig and Db on SEEK in #493
       Re: [CANSLIM] Newbie question
       Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Lemonade Stand Analysis
       Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Lemonade Stand Analysis
       Re: [CANSLIM] CELL
       RE: [CANSLIM] CELL
       [CANSLIM] SEEK
       Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Lemonade Stand Analysis
       [CANSLIM] Re: Craig and SEEK
       [CANSLIM] Re: Delivery failure
       [CANSLIM] Little Green Men
       Re: [CANSLIM] Little Green Men
       [CANSLIM] Big/Mid/Small Cap.
       RE: [CANSLIM] Big/Mid/Small Cap.
       Re: [CANSLIM] Little Green Men
       Re: [CANSLIM] Big/Mid/Small Cap.
       [CANSLIM] M - Dow Cup w/Handle b/o Weds

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 07 Jan 1999 10:29:55 -0500
From: Carter Diggs <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Craig and Db on SEEK in #493

I second Charlie's response to your answers on SEEK!  Very helpful to
newbies, Gentlemen. I will study them carefully. Thank you very much.

Carter.


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1999 23:06:16 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Newbie question

Tran, while this is a CANSLIM board, many topics get posted
that are not pure CANSLIM, or even vaguely CANSLIM. While
Elder's system isn't that far astray, it's still not Wm
O'Neil's CANSLIM. If you are trying to focus, concentrate,
and improve your skills and understanding of CANSLIM, then
it's too early for you to be distracted by other trading
approaches and theories. It's sometimes difficult here to
recognize what is and is not CANSLIM, for example all the
recent posts on SEEK ignore the fact that this was never a
valid CANSLIM stock with an EPS of 49, it's another volatile
internet stock.

Read Wm O'Neil's "How To Make Money In Stocks" (HTMMIS) like
a novel, then go back and read each chapter like a college
textbook. Feel free to make many margin notes and highlight
stuff. Then start actually studying it.  Read it again every
few months after you have either paper traded, or traded
with real money. Try to apply as fully as possible all the
rules, it's most difficult. Eventually you will start
finding the "style" of CANSLIM that meets most of the rules,
and still fits your personality.

Tom W
[e-mail]
ICQ # 5568838

- -----Original Message-----
From: Quan Tran <[e-mail]>
To: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
Date: Wednesday, January 06, 1999 1:04 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Newbie question


Hi all,

I am new to CANSLIM and also new to this list. The reason I
am
lurking on this list is wanting to learn more about CANSLIM.
Please, excuse the very newbie question.

I see many thread refer to Dr. Elder's Triple Screen and his
book.
Searching for Elder on Amazon show a book titled "Trading
for a
Living : Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management"
ISBN 0471592242

Is this THE book?

Regards,
Quan Tran
[e-mail]


- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 06 Jan 1999 23:36:50 -0500
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Lemonade Stand Analysis

At 18:05 1/6/99 -0500, Craig Griffin wrote:
>
>Would you pay $19,700 for this lemonade stand?
>
>

I would have to say that all depends on the location of the stand!

Is the comparison to tulips fair? I know alot are doing so, but I think
this trivializes the Internet as a fad. You and I both know how
fundamentally different our lives are due to technological advances of late.
We can also measure the differences in terms of time saved, or information
gained, as fast as it is happening. Our lives are affected immensely due to
our participation, for good or bad. I don't believe such parallels exist
with the tulip craze.

The Net is here to stay. It will only get bigger, better, faster, simpler
and cheaper. ( Cable Modems, ADSL, Fiber Optics, Wireless Internet, yadda,
yadda...)
I'm not ready to call an end to the mania, and I agree it appears to be
just that, based at least on the fundamentals. But the market isn't as
smart as I am and it just doesn't know any better.
In October of 1987 when the markets lost over 30% in one day, my boss asked
me what I was buying. I said Microsoft. He liked IBM cause it had a track
record and earnings.

Regards,
Frank Wolynski


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 06 Jan 1999 23:36:50 -0500
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Lemonade Stand Analysis

At 18:05 1/6/99 -0500, Craig Griffin wrote:
>
>Would you pay $19,700 for this lemonade stand?
>
>

I would have to say that all depends on the location of the stand!

Is the comparison to tulips fair? I know alot are doing so, but I think
this trivializes the Internet as a fad. You and I both know how
fundamentally different our lives are due to technological advances of late.
We can also measure the differences in terms of time saved, or information
gained, as fast as it is happening. Our lives are affected immensely due to
our participation, for good or bad. I don't believe such parallels exist
with the tulip craze.

The Net is here to stay. It will only get bigger, better, faster, simpler
and cheaper. ( Cable Modems, ADSL, Fiber Optics, Wireless Internet, yadda,
yadda...)
I'm not ready to call an end to the mania, and I agree it appears to be
just that, based at least on the fundamentals. But the market isn't as
smart as I am and it just doesn't know any better.
In October of 1987 when the markets lost over 30% in one day, my boss asked
me what I was buying. I said Microsoft. He liked IBM cause it had a track
record and earnings.

Regards,
Frank Wolynski


- -

------------------------------

Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1999 23:36:49 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CELL

Hi Charlie,

The basic CANSLIM stuff looks good (RS 95, EPS 99, A/D B,
Timeliness B, Up/Down 1.6, GRS 86). On the other hand, it's
not in the top 5 of its group, ROE is only 17%, Funds
already own 30% while management only own 7% so they're not
voting with their holdings. Chart wise a decent case can be
made for a cup and handle, certainly today's huge volume
argues a breakout.

Earnings have been stagnant for the past 4 qtrs, and sales
for 3 of the past 4 qtrs.

To me it's not a top candidate, and the underlying "fundies"
and technicals would concern me.

Tom W
[e-mail]
ICQ # 5568838

- -----Original Message-----
From: Charles Cangialosi <[e-mail]>
To: canslim <[e-mail]>
Date: Wednesday, January 06, 1999 7:13 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CELL


I see +'s and -'s in this one. V bottom from July to mid
Nov. and  then
formed a six week handle. Volume dried up in mid to end of
Dec. Then the
volume really picked up. The price did not do much so I
wonder if that could
have been some distribution. There is overhead resistance,
52 week high is
around 21. The resistance looks like around 17 which up till
May was
support. Broke above resistance today on good volume.
Crossed above the 17
day EMA and 200 day EMA, the 50 is turning up still a little
low due to
recent overhead. The institutional ownership is 80 percent
according to QP2.
That and the overhead is what I dont like.
Any opinions. I just want to know if I am looking at this
properly.
Charlie


- -



- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 04:42:20 -0500
From: "Charles Cangialosi" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CELL

QP2 gives a different picture of institutional holdings they say 80 percent.
Wonder why there is such a difference.
Thanks
Charlie


> -----Original Message-----
> From: [e-mail]
> [mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
> Sent: Wednesday, January 06, 1999 11:37 PM
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CELL
>
>
> Hi Charlie,
>
> The basic CANSLIM stuff looks good (RS 95, EPS 99, A/D B,
> Timeliness B, Up/Down 1.6, GRS 86). On the other hand, it's
> not in the top 5 of its group, ROE is only 17%, Funds
> already own 30% while management only own 7% so they're not
> voting with their holdings. Chart wise a decent case can be
> made for a cup and handle, certainly today's huge volume
> argues a breakout.
>
> Earnings have been stagnant for the past 4 qtrs, and sales
> for 3 of the past 4 qtrs.
>
> To me it's not a top candidate, and the underlying "fundies"
> and technicals would concern me.
>
> Tom W
> [e-mail]
> ICQ # 5568838
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Charles Cangialosi <[e-mail]>
> To: canslim <[e-mail]>
> Date: Wednesday, January 06, 1999 7:13 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] CELL
>
>
> I see +'s and -'s in this one. V bottom from July to mid
> Nov. and  then
> formed a six week handle. Volume dried up in mid to end of
> Dec. Then the
> volume really picked up. The price did not do much so I
> wonder if that could
> have been some distribution. There is overhead resistance,
> 52 week high is
> around 21. The resistance looks like around 17 which up till
> May was
> support. Broke above resistance today on good volume.
> Crossed above the 17
> day EMA and 200 day EMA, the 50 is turning up still a little
> low due to
> recent overhead. The institutional ownership is 80 percent
> according to QP2.
> That and the overhead is what I dont like.
> Any opinions. I just want to know if I am looking at this
> properly.
> Charlie
>
>
> -
>
>
>
> -
>
>


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 07:44:41 -0600 (CST)
From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] SEEK

Craig,

Your analysis of the above stock in
response to Charlie's message was
just superb.  I've printed it, and
will follow each point with the chart.
I don't always see cup with handles,
in fact, I find that pattern the hardest
to spot.  This is very helpful.

Thanks,
Mary





- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 07 Jan 1999 09:03:58 -0500
From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Lemonade Stand Analysis

Frank,

I was simply presenting an interesting alternate perspective (from my
concurrent post (Internet Stocsk) with a link to an article.

Actually, I do think the recent run-up (a triple in a couple of months) is
overdone.  But, I do not think AMZN's business model is anything like a
lemonade stand.  The market is discounting the next 3-5 years of growth
IMHO.  It is a very extended and risky stock.  Eventually it will have
another 30-40% correction, and I would not particularly like to join the
fray just before that happens, but would, of course, wait for a new base
and breakout if I was looking to establish a new position.

Someone else posted in reply to the lemonade message, something like " your
perspective would change if that lemonade stand just happened to be on a
motherlode of gold ".  And indeed, AMZN is not trading at these lofty
valuations because of the lemonade (books) that it sells, but because the
brand name and software development that it has already give it a huge lead
in its attempt to become the "Walmart of the Internet" (general store) and
to capture huge amounts of the internet's retail revenue in the future.
It's current revenue growth rate is truely astonishing - and so is its
valuation.  But, to paraphrase what I said in a recent post, never short
based on valuation (only), the leaders often appear overvalued by
traditional measures.  And AMZN is certainly a hold, for any current owners
with a long term pserspective.

Best Regards,
Craig

At 11:36 PM 1/6/99 -0500, you wrote:
>At 18:05 1/6/99 -0500, Craig Griffin wrote:
>>
>>Would you pay $19,700 for this lemonade stand?
>>
>>
>
>I would have to say that all depends on the location of the stand!
>
>Is the comparison to tulips fair? I know alot are doing so, but I think
>this trivializes the Internet as a fad. You and I both know how
>fundamentally different our lives are due to technological advances of late.
>We can also measure the differences in terms of time saved, or information
>gained, as fast as it is happening. Our lives are affected immensely due to
>our participation, for good or bad. I don't believe such parallels exist
>with the tulip craze.
>
>The Net is here to stay. It will only get bigger, better, faster, simpler
>and cheaper. ( Cable Modems, ADSL, Fiber Optics, Wireless Internet, yadda,
>yadda...)
>I'm not ready to call an end to the mania, and I agree it appears to be
>just that, based at least on the fundamentals. But the market isn't as
>smart as I am and it just doesn't know any better.
>In October of 1987 when the markets lost over 30% in one day, my boss asked
>me what I was buying. I said Microsoft. He liked IBM cause it had a track
>record and earnings.
>
>Regards,
>Frank Wolynski
>
>
>-
>
>

- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 06:01:33 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Craig and SEEK

If there are any newcomers out there who haven't started a Craig
folder yet, now's as good a time as any.

- --Db



==

"Lessons are repeated until they are learned."

http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 07 Jan 1999 09:29:40 -0500
From: Connie Mack Rea <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Delivery failure

>
>
> Yesterday was a most profitable day for those who have been making a
> living on MU.
>
> As  a probably course mentioned yesterday, I did buy back into MU at
> 54.25 [open price].  Too, I left over a point on the table because I
> sold 1/3 of my position the day before.  I again sold 1/3 of my position
> at yesterday's close.  From the looks of things this morning, I should
> have sold more.
>
> But remember that greed and sleepless nights are inbred relatives that
> produce genetic mutations [in traders and investors].
>
> As I mentioned yesterday, I took positions in ADPT for a nice gain.
> This morning there appears to be a big up gap in the opening.  That it
> is going to be a fairly juicy up gap is not the result of my being smart
> or prescient of some external news.  I do not know what might have
> caused the gap, nor do I particularly care.  I bought the stock on pure
> technical indicators; I will sell it using the same criteria.
>
> AMD wobbled about.  I am down a quarter point.  Yesterday's close
> indicated some strength.  However, the 3/7/10 EMA broke down.  I won't
> take more than another 3/8th loss.
>
> Connie




- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 07:54:24 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Little Green Men

I'm becoming concerned.

I hadn't visited the Success series for a while and just finished
catching up.  In HTMMIS, O'N pooh-poohs PEs for a variety of reasons,
yet he now advocates using them as a source of sell signals.  He has
also repeatedly pooh-poohed the use of moving averages and trendlines,
yet he now suggests that one pay close attention to them.

Clearly, O'N is a victim of alien abduction, and the person who is now
providing all this advice is not O'N, but an alien impostor.

If you doubt this, I heard that there's an article in IBD stating that
the best way to make money in this market is to buy HTFs.

Enough said.

- --Db


==

"Lessons are repeated until they are learned."

http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 07 Jan 1999 16:29:54 GMT
From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Little Green Men

On Thu, 7 Jan 1999 07:54:24 -0800 (PST), you wrote:

:
:
:I'm becoming concerned.
:
:I hadn't visited the Success series for a while and just finished
:catching up.  In HTMMIS, O'N pooh-poohs PEs for a variety of reasons,
:yet he now advocates using them as a source of sell signals.  He has
:also repeatedly pooh-poohed the use of moving averages and trendlines,
:yet he now suggests that one pay close attention to them.
:
:Clearly, O'N is a victim of alien abduction, and the person who is now
:providing all this advice is not O'N, but an alien impostor.
:
:If you doubt this, I heard that there's an article in IBD stating that
:the best way to make money in this market is to buy HTFs.
:
:Enough said.
:
:--Db


Umm, not quite "enough", Db. What's HTF's?

Dan

:
:"Lessons are repeated until they are learned."
:
:http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/
:
:
:
:_________________________________________________________
:DO YOU YAHOO!?
:Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
:
:
:-



- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 15:55:07 -0500
From: "Charles Cangialosi" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Big/Mid/Small Cap.

    This is just an observation. It seems to me that I have not done to well
with the mid and smaller cap stuff the gains I have had have been on
gorillas like AOL and INTC. Also I keep hearing and reading about how larger
stocks are doing better now.
    It has occurred to me that when you consider "M", it is nice to consider
where the "M" is and where "M" isn't. I am sure that this must change but
for now I am thinking that missing the boat=not being in the larger cap tech
stocks.
    I am a little reluctant to get in at this point but probably will anyway.

Charlie


- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 14:24:55 -0700
From: [e-mail]
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Big/Mid/Small Cap.

> -----Original Message-----
> From:    Charles Cangialosi [SMTP:[e-mail]]
> Sent:    Thursday, January 07, 1999 1:55 PM
> To:    canslim
> Subject:    [CANSLIM] Big/Mid/Small Cap.
>
>
>     This is just an observation. It seems to me that I have not done
> to well
> with the mid and smaller cap stuff the gains I have had have been on
> gorillas like AOL and INTC. Also I keep hearing and reading about how
> larger
> stocks are doing better now.
>     It has occurred to me that when you consider "M", it is nice to
> consider
> where the "M" is and where "M" isn't. I am sure that this must change
> but
> for now I am thinking that missing the boat=not being in the larger
> cap tech
> stocks.
>     I am a little reluctant to get in at this point but probably
> will anyway.
>
> Charlie
>
    [Wahl, Patrick]

    Remember that if you buy correctly, you are greatly reducing
your risk.  So although
    the market may have advanced a bunch, you will be buying a stock
that is just emerging from
    a base, that is, not extended in spite of the market advance.
That said, after the runup of the last
    few days, I think I will be a bit wary of buying breakouts until
we have at least a few lower volatility
    days.

    You are right about mid-cap vs. large cap.   Just look at the
Russell 2K, still 14% (? I think) off its old
    highs, while the Dow and S&P are at all time highs.

> -

- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1999 19:31:22 -0800
From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Little Green Men

From:               [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
To:                 [e-mail]

> :If you doubt this, I heard that there's an article in IBD stating that
> :the best way to make money in this market is to buy HTFs.
> :
> :Enough said.
> :
> :--Db
>
>
> Umm, not quite "enough", Db. What's HTF's?

High Tight Flags, I'm guessing.



- -

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 07 Jan 1999 18:47:33 -0800
From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big/Mid/Small Cap.

My mid- and small- caps are also sucking rocks lately and over the long run.
Since June 97 my large caps have had a 34% IRR while my small caps have done a
lousy 1%.  No reason not to get in now. There has been no significant sell
signal for a while, while plenty of signs that the uptrend is continuing are
being generated.

At 03:55 PM 1/7/99 -0500, you wrote:
>
>       This is just an observation. It seems to me that I have not done to
well
>with the mid and smaller cap stuff the gains I have had have been on
>gorillas like AOL and INTC. Also I keep hearing and reading about how larger
>stocks are doing better now.
>       It has occurred to me that when you consider "M", it is nice to
consider
>where the "M" is and where "M" isn't. I am sure that this must change but
>for now I am thinking that missing the boat=not being in the larger cap tech
>stocks.
>       I am a little reluctant to get in at this point but probably will
anyway.
>
>Charlie
>

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

- -

------------------------------

Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 08:50:41 -0500
From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - Dow Cup w/Handle b/o Weds

The DJIA broke out of a large cup w/handle formation on Wednesday,
01/06/99, on big volume.  The cup runs from 07/17/98 to 11/24/98 on the
chart.  The handle runs from 11/24/98 to 01/05/99 on the chart.

The handle on the big cup is also a smaller cup w/handle.  The cup runs
from 11/24/98 to 12/30/98 on the chart. And the little handle runs from
12/30/98 to 01/05/99.

This big cup w/handle with the big handle also forming a cup w/handle is
also a fairly common formation found on individual issues.

This market showed amazing weakness to drop so far so fast in September.
But it also showed amazing power to come back so quickly.  Now all three
major indexes have formed up cup w/handles and broken out one after the
other (the DOW being the last to breakout).  And the volume on the breakout
for the DOW was very large.  This bodes well for the continued strength of
this bull move (although there are no guarantees in this business).
Yesterdays attempt to sell off with profit taking and quick recovery also
bodes well.

One day at a time of course, but so far, one word best describes it:
"powerful".

PS. Russell 2000 continues to be the laggard (fourth index), which says to
me, stay with the larger and mid-sized companies for now.



- -

------------------------------

End of canslim-digest V2 #494
*****************************

 To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
 "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your message.