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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #423
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
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canslim-digest Tuesday, October 27 1998 Volume 02 : Number 423
In this issue:
[CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
[CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
[CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
[CANSLIM] ADX
Re: [CANSLIM] W Formation
Re: [CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
[CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
Re: [CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
[CANSLIM] Short Course in HGS Investing
[CANSLIM] CREE
Re: [CANSLIM] Candlestick Sites
Re: [CANSLIM] Candlestick Sites
[CANSLIM] Placing stops in relationship to gaps
Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
Re: [CANSLIM] Placing stops in relationship to gaps
[CANSLIM] Distribution
Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
Re: [CANSLIM] CREE CS entry
Re: [CANSLIM] CREE CS entry
[CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results
Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution
Re: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results
[CANSLIM] ACC/Dis numbers
Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Mon, 26 Oct 1998 22:19:26 -0700
From: "Joe J." <jojab@ionet.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
Dan was looking for the formula for "Average Directional Index". I
posted it to the group in case anyone else was wondering where they
could find information on it.
My MetaStock ver. 6.5 has a formula built-in for Directional Movement
ADX. If you don't have this on yours, you can find the formula at:
http://www.aspenres.com/help/
Just type in ADX in the search. BTW, this site is very helpful with TA
formulas.
I remember after reading Larry Connor's book, Advanced Trading
Strategies, that I searched high and low for this one on the web and
finally found it. I also read about it in Tushar Chande's book, The
New Technical Trader. He has an indicator called CMO (Chande Momemtum
Ocscillator) which he compares to ADX.
Just curious Dan, where did you read about the ADX?
Also, are there any Profitunity (Bill Williams) fans out there? He has
a new book out called "New Trading Dimensions".
Joe J.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 03:57:06 -0800 (PST)
From: rolatzi <rolatzi@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
Dan:
ADX is available as a scanning parameter in quotes plus. They give
the following definition:
The Directional Movement system, developed by Welles Wilder, helps
determine if there is a trend in a security's price. There are two
indicators, the Positive Directional Movement indicator (called PDM or
+DI) and the Minus Directional Movement indicator (called MDM or -DI)
Wilder suggests buying when the PDM rises above the MDM and selling
when the PDM falls below the MDM.
To reduce the number of trades, Wilder employs the "extreme point
rule." The extreme point can be an extreme high price or low price:
If the PDM is rising above the MDM, then on the day the lines cross
(MDM-PDM =0), the day's high price is the extreme point.
If the PDM is falling below the MDM, then on the day the lines cross
(MDM-PDM =0), the day's low price is the extreme point.
Wilder suggests that you use the extreme point as a trigger. For
example, if the PDM rises above the MDM (a buy signal), you should
wait until the security's price rises above the extreme point before
buying. If the price fails to rise above the extreme point, continue
to hold a short position.
Wilder notes that this system is not equally profitable for all
securities. To learn more about Directional Movement indicators, how
they are calculated and which securities they are effective for, see
Wilder's book
New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. You can incorporate the
Directional Movement indicators in your scans using the functions PDM,
MDM, and ADX (which calculates the average directional movement).
In addition, I can't place where I read it but someone who has a
commercial web site on canslim has suggested that when a stock is
about to break out from the handle that there is a sudden increase in
ADX. Maybe db has a "handle" on this one.
Ciao,
rolatzi
- --- wrote:
Error quoting message 8776_168720_4802_1294_919_0 in folder Inbox
fetchMsg: old message id?
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 04:02:32 -0800 (PST)
From: rolatzi <rolatzi@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
Dan:
ADX is available as a scanning parameter in quotes plus. They give
the following definition:
The Directional Movement system, developed by Welles Wilder, helps
determine if there is a trend in a security's price. There are two
indicators, the Positive Directional Movement indicator (called PDM or
+DI) and the Minus Directional Movement indicator (called MDM or -DI)
Wilder suggests buying when the PDM rises above the MDM and selling
when the PDM falls below the MDM.
To reduce the number of trades, Wilder employs the "extreme point
rule." The extreme point can be an extreme high price or low price:
If the PDM is rising above the MDM, then on the day the lines cross
(MDM-PDM =0), the day's high price is the extreme point.
If the PDM is falling below the MDM, then on the day the lines cross
(MDM-PDM =0), the day's low price is the extreme point.
Wilder suggests that you use the extreme point as a trigger. For
example, if the PDM rises above the MDM (a buy signal), you should
wait until the security's price rises above the extreme point before
buying. If the price fails to rise above the extreme point, continue
to hold a short position.
Wilder notes that this system is not equally profitable for all
securities. To learn more about Directional Movement indicators, how
they are calculated and which securities they are effective for, see
Wilder's book
New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. You can incorporate the
Directional Movement indicators in your scans using the functions PDM,
MDM, and ADX (which calculates the average directional movement).
In addition, I can't place where I read it but someone who has a
commercial web site on canslim has suggested that when a stock is
about to break out from the handle that there is a sudden increase in
ADX. Maybe db has a "handle" on this one.
Ciao,
rolatzi
- --- wrote:
Error quoting message 8776_168720_4802_1294_919_0 in folder Inbox
fetchMsg: old message id?
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 04:03:32 -0800 (PST)
From: rolatzi <rolatzi@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] ADX
Dan:
ADX is available as a scanning parameter in quotes plus. They give
the following definition:
The Directional Movement system, developed by Welles Wilder, helps
determine if there is a trend in a security's price. There are two
indicators, the Positive Directional Movement indicator (called PDM or
+DI) and the Minus Directional Movement indicator (called MDM or -DI)
Wilder suggests buying when the PDM rises above the MDM and selling
when the PDM falls below the MDM.
To reduce the number of trades, Wilder employs the "extreme point
rule." The extreme point can be an extreme high price or low price:
If the PDM is rising above the MDM, then on the day the lines cross
(MDM-PDM =0), the day's high price is the extreme point.
If the PDM is falling below the MDM, then on the day the lines cross
(MDM-PDM =0), the day's low price is the extreme point.
Wilder suggests that you use the extreme point as a trigger. For
example, if the PDM rises above the MDM (a buy signal), you should
wait until the security's price rises above the extreme point before
buying. If the price fails to rise above the extreme point, continue
to hold a short position.
Wilder notes that this system is not equally profitable for all
securities. To learn more about Directional Movement indicators, how
they are calculated and which securities they are effective for, see
Wilder's book
New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. You can incorporate the
Directional Movement indicators in your scans using the functions PDM,
MDM, and ADX (which calculates the average directional movement).
In addition, I can't place where I read it but someone who has a
commercial web site on canslim has suggested that when a stock is
about to break out from the handle that there is a sudden increase in
ADX. Maybe db has a "handle" on this one.
Ciao,
rolatzi
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 07:35:02 EST
From: Ssingh@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] W Formation
Another example of W is XIRC....
Surindra
In a message dated 10/26/98 10:26:24 PM Eastern Standard Time,
xjadair@mail.brightok.net writes:
> If the W formation has a last leg up in less than one month buy when the
> last leg reaches the peak of the middle leg There is an 80% chance of
> going on up. There was a good article in Stocks and comodities about
> months ago.
> John Adair
> Ari Lawson wrote:
>
> > Could someone please tell me the correct buy point for a W formation?
> > Thanks Ari
> >
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 05:53:48 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
<<In addition, I can't place where I read it but someone who has a
commercial web site on canslim has suggested that when a stock is
about to break out from the handle that there is a sudden increase in
ADX. Maybe db has a "handle" on this one.>>
It can, as with DELL in June. I've also read that if the ADX comes up
from below 20 to above 20 that it signals a strong uptrending move,
but that doesn't always work out either. The main use I've found for
ADX(w) is to show whether an LLUR is in trouble when it falls out of
its channel. That is, if the stock pulls back to or through ascending
support of some kind and the ADX continues on its merry way, one can
fairly safely assume that the stock presents a buying opportunity.
Otherwise, there's a likelihood of a sideways movement or decline.
ADX isn't near the top of my list of indicators. I do find DM+&- to
be helpful, but ADX is pretty slow. IMO, it would be of use primarily
to a long-term investor.
BTW, your post on the subject came through three times. Have you
subscribed to the list more than once?
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
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Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 07:18:35 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
RMBS is continuing the breakout (or, more exactly, breakthrough) it
began yesterday: 75/97/B-A.
FWIW, it's also part of Electronics-Misc Comps, which is one of the
groups that showed up on my group scan last week and also showed up on
Joe's.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 22:25:23 +0700
From: "Peter D. Christiansen" <peterc@loxinfo.co.th>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
A rather wide and loose chart, don't you think?
dbphoenix wrote:
> RMBS is continuing the breakout (or, more exactly, breakthrough) it
> began yesterday: 75/97/B-A.
>
> FWIW, it's also part of Electronics-Misc Comps, which is one of the
> groups that showed up on my group scan last week and also showed up on
> Joe's.
>
> --Db
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
> -
- --
Peter Christiansen
Chiang Mai - Thailand
peterc@loxinfo.co.th
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 07:38:26 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
<<A rather wide and loose chart, don't you think?>>
Very. I brought it up because of the ADX discussion, though
short-term traders may get a few points here. Even as a rectangular
base, it's a bit sloppy, but may be worth 10 more points overall.
Depends mostly on how speculative the market gets.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 08:18:06 -0800
From: Dan Cash <dcash@compuall.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
Hi Peter,
Good to see you back
Dan
"Peter D. Christiansen" wrote:
> A rather wide and loose chart, don't you think?
>
> dbphoenix wrote:
>
> > RMBS is continuing the breakout (or, more exactly, breakthrough) it
> > began yesterday: 75/97/B-A.
> >
> > FWIW, it's also part of Electronics-Misc Comps, which is one of the
> > groups that showed up on my group scan last week and also showed up on
> > Joe's.
> >
> > --Db
> >
> > _________________________________________________________
> > DO YOU YAHOO!?
> > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
> >
> > -
>
> --
> Peter Christiansen
> Chiang Mai - Thailand
> peterc@loxinfo.co.th
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 08:20:15 -0800
From: Dan Cash <dcash@compuall.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CS post on ADX
To all
Thanks for the discussion and info
dbphoenix wrote:
> <<In addition, I can't place where I read it but someone who has a
> commercial web site on canslim has suggested that when a stock is
> about to break out from the handle that there is a sudden increase in
> ADX. Maybe db has a "handle" on this one.>>
>
> It can, as with DELL in June. I've also read that if the ADX comes up
> from below 20 to above 20 that it signals a strong uptrending move,
> but that doesn't always work out either. The main use I've found for
> ADX(w) is to show whether an LLUR is in trouble when it falls out of
> its channel. That is, if the stock pulls back to or through ascending
> support of some kind and the ADX continues on its merry way, one can
> fairly safely assume that the stock presents a buying opportunity.
> Otherwise, there's a likelihood of a sideways movement or decline.
>
> ADX isn't near the top of my list of indicators. I do find DM+&- to
> be helpful, but ADX is pretty slow. IMO, it would be of use primarily
> to a long-term investor.
>
> BTW, your post on the subject came through three times. Have you
> subscribed to the list more than once?
>
> --Db
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 17:38:47 +0100
From: Johan Van Houtven <Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Speaking of ADX
Hi Peter,
That's been a long time! Glad to see you are still on the list.
The Belgian market and many other European markets had a very good day
today. Let's hope the US follows that example. Were very close to a
bifurcation point here IMO. I don't think anyone can predict with strong
argumentation which way we will go.
How is the economic situation there in Thailand and the rest of the Far
East from your viewpoint?
At 10:25 PM 27/10/98 +0700, you wrote:
>A rather wide and loose chart, don't you think?
>
>dbphoenix wrote:
>
>> RMBS is continuing the breakout (or, more exactly, breakthrough) it
>> began yesterday: 75/97/B-A.
>>
>> FWIW, it's also part of Electronics-Misc Comps, which is one of the
>> groups that showed up on my group scan last week and also showed up on
>> Joe's.
>>
>> --Db
>>
>> _________________________________________________________
>> DO YOU YAHOO!?
>> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>>
>> -
>
>--
>Peter Christiansen
>Chiang Mai - Thailand
>peterc@loxinfo.co.th
>
>
>
>-
>
>
- -- Johan Van Houtven
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 12:26:43 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Short Course in HGS Investing
What amounts to a short course in HGS Investing is going on between
Ian Woodward and one of our members on the HGS board under the subject
heading Elec-Semiconductor Mfg Group. Anyone who's interested in the
subject generally, or in the subject of surrogates specifically,
should give it a look-see.
http://www.wallstreetcity.com/talk/roundtables.htm
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 16:11:11 -0500
From: "Charles Cangialosi" <chcng@worldnet.att.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CREE
I have posted once or twice before. I am relatively new to investing and
very new to CANSLIM. Here is what happened today. I have been looking at
CREE for about a week now. It looked good, in my inexperience eyes I was
seeing a cup with handle formation starting in the last coupe of weeks in
Sept. dropping down into the cup the first couple of weeks in Oct and the
handle last week. As you know it closed at 24 and change on Friday. It ran
up some yesterday on good volume and came down a little today. I felt like I
missed Friday I wanted to see what happens Monday, that is an error in
retrospect. Then when it ran up so much I decided that someone was bound to
take some profit which happened today. I got in at 26.87 its 25.75 now and
the market is not closed yet. I have a stop loss in at 24.50 so I may get
shaken out in the first wave. In IBD it looks great 99 99 AAA quarterly
increases in place.
I would love some experienced opinions. I wont be asking for advice before
purchases. I feel like I need to go on my own decisions and live with the
consequences. In WON's book he says be decisive. That's good advice. Though
I expect it can be costly.
Thanks
Charlie
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 16:27:06 -0500
From: David Squires <dcsquires@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Candlestick Sites
Here's a good one Frank
http://brkthru.com/trading/introduc.htm
and this is a cool site for charting candles
http://www.litwick.com/
Lastly, I would like to recommend Greg Morris' book on Candlesticks.....it
is excellent!
"Candlestick Charting Explained" (Formerly, Candlepower)
"Frank V. Wolynski" wrote:
> There is a web site that specifically identifies a handful of the
> candlestick patterns that have been thought to offer better reliability
> than others.
>
> I did not bookmark when last there and cannot find the site again.
> Would anyone happen to know what the URL is?
>
> Thanks,
> Frank Wolynski
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 16:27:06 -0500
From: David Squires <dcsquires@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Candlestick Sites
Here's a good one Frank
http://brkthru.com/trading/introduc.htm
and this is a cool site for charting candles
http://www.litwick.com/
Lastly, I would like to recommend Greg Morris' book on Candlesticks.....it
is excellent!
"Candlestick Charting Explained" (Formerly, Candlepower)
"Frank V. Wolynski" wrote:
> There is a web site that specifically identifies a handful of the
> candlestick patterns that have been thought to offer better reliability
> than others.
>
> I did not bookmark when last there and cannot find the site again.
> Would anyone happen to know what the URL is?
>
> Thanks,
> Frank Wolynski
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 13:45:11 -0800
From: Dan Cash <dcash@compuall.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Placing stops in relationship to gaps
Where would one place a protective sell stop on an intraday chart that gapped up,
possibly at the opening or intraday?
Would it be at the bottom of a) or top of b)
|
| <-a)
| <-b)
|
Dan
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 17:17:21 -0500
From: Connie Mack Rea <rea1@ithink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
Charles--
I have seen CREE mentioned here and elsewhere. I am uninterested in how CREE looks
against CS criteria. On the other hand, I am disinterested in CREE as I would be in
any stock that I look at technically.
There is a nice distinction to be made between "uninterested" and "disinterested,"
both for the rhetorician and the investor [even if those on CNBC can't make it].
Ian Woodward's group is a civilly raucous group, as are CSers, who are disinterested
in both the technical and CS side of investing. You might have done a couple of
things to evaluate CREE before you moved in at 26.87.
First: You might have applied an EMA to the chart. I use a 3/7/10. Believe I saw
Woodward mention that his, or one of his, is 4/9/17. Mine is akin to rocketry.
Woodward's in not far behind; much depends on how he applies his 17 EMA. You can see
that mine would have put you in a couple of weeks ago. His is not much different from
mine.
Second: A SloSto would have indicated that CREE has already had a run and is fast
approaching oversold. Remember, however, that a stochastic can remain oversold and
overbought for lengthy periods. It's eccentric.
Third: The MACD back in early December was indicating a buy, became ambivalent in
early October, and was followed by a second buy that cleared up the ambivalence. It
is now higher than at any other time this year. Too, though usually a bit slothful,
it has had three rocket moves the last three days.
It is hard to imagine that any tech indicator would have invited trader or investor to
take a position. There are just too many stocks that look substantially better.
You must be satisfied to be late getting into a position if you use only CS
principles; they rarely coincide with technical indicators. Technical indicators can
be quite timely in saying when to leave a position, too. But these also are most
often at odds with CS exit principles.
Charles, one can always be decisive [as you say of WON], but a damn lot depends in
whose mind decisiveness is a principle. Even if it is a sound principle, it need not,
and ought not, be a principle whose early understanding is therefore and always
expensive. There are many other more palatable principles.
Connie Mack
Charles Cangialosi wrote:
> I have posted once or twice before. I am relatively new to investing and
> very new to CANSLIM. Here is what happened today. I have been looking at
> CREE for about a week now. It looked good, in my inexperience eyes I was
> seeing a cup with handle formation starting in the last coupe of weeks in
> Sept. dropping down into the cup the first couple of weeks in Oct and the
> handle last week. As you know it closed at 24 and change on Friday. It ran
> up some yesterday on good volume and came down a little today. I felt like I
> missed Friday I wanted to see what happens Monday, that is an error in
> retrospect. Then when it ran up so much I decided that someone was bound to
> take some profit which happened today. I got in at 26.87 its 25.75 now and
> the market is not closed yet. I have a stop loss in at 24.50 so I may get
> shaken out in the first wave. In IBD it looks great 99 99 AAA quarterly
> increases in place.
> I would love some experienced opinions. I wont be asking for advice before
> purchases. I feel like I need to go on my own decisions and live with the
> consequences. In WON's book he says be decisive. That's good advice. Though
> I expect it can be costly.
>
> Thanks
> Charlie
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 14:40:16 -0800 (PST)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Placing stops in relationship to gaps
Dan,
This clipping is from the candlestick site
http://brkthru.com/trading/introduc.htm that David Squires just
mentioned.
" "Window" - In conventional chart analysis, when a market opens
higher or lower than the previous settlement, a gap is formed. In
candlesticks, a window is analagous to a gap, and often serves as a
support/resistance area. In conventional chart analysis, it is said
that gaps tend to get filled. In candlestick analysis, the market
often retraces to test (close) a window. Settlement through the window
is usually a strong continuation signal. It is also important to note
that even though the window can be violated, a settlement through the
window is required to negate it as a support/resistance area. "
So if the gap is support on the way down, there is some friction
slowing the fall. I don't think A is right, if the article is
correct, the support needs time to work. If the price breaks to B,
it has broken through all resistance completely, again if the article
is correct.
But...if it is an exhaustion gap - topping. A is the best choice.
Edwards and Magee write that sometimes there is a "vacuum" of
available stock associated with certain types of gaps. Prices are
"absorbed" into a higher or lower level. It depends on the market and
the exact way that the gap was formed; also other areas of support and
resistance.
You've asked a complicated question, Dan. I don't think there is one
answer.
TM
- ---Dan Cash <dcash@compuall.net> wrote:
>
> Where would one place a protective sell stop on an intraday chart
that gapped up,
> possibly at the opening or intraday?
>
> Would it be at the bottom of a) or top of b)
> |
> | <-a)
>
>
> | <-b)
> |
>
> Dan
>
>
> -
>
>
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 18:04:51 -0500
From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution
Distribution day in the indices...multi-day high near the open, followed
by a close unchanged to lower on an increase in volume over yesterday.
200 day moving averages in play, and providing resistance, A/D becoming
less robust and sentiment spiking bullish last week with probable
increase this week.
For what it's worth, I'm short.
JW
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 15:18:30 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
<<I have been looking at CREE for about a week now. It looked good, in
my inexperience eyes I was seeing a cup with handle formation starting
in the last coupe of weeks in Sept. dropping down into the cup the
first couple of weeks in Oct and the handle last week. As you know it
closed at 24 and change on Friday. It ran up some yesterday on good
volume and came down a little today. I felt like I missed Friday I
wanted to see what happens Monday, that is an error in retrospect.
Then when it ran up so much I decided that someone was bound to take
some profit which happened today. I got in at 26.87 its 25.75 now and
the market is not closed yet. I have a stop loss in at 24.50 so I may
get shaken out in the first wave. In IBD it looks great 99 99 AAA
quarterly increases in place.>>
Probably the most difficult lesson for any investor to learn is
patience. The best thing you did here was place a stop.
If you had been following CREE for a while, you might have caught it
on Friday when the earnings announcement came out. You may even have
bought it on a technical basis the week before. But even by the most
liberal definition of buypoint, the stock was overextended by the time
you bought it.
At this point, there's not much you can do except wait. There are
several things that could happen. One is the formation of what's
called a falling flag. This will be a pattern of lower highs and
lower lows over a period of several days to two weeks, retracing up to
15% from the top or half the length of the "pole" (one-half of 17 to
27, or 22), depending on who you listen to. The buypoint is the point
at which the stock resumes its uptrend from this pattern (though if
you want to wait for a new high, that's up to you). If it lasts
longer than two weeks or retraces more than what I just gave you, the
likelihood is that it will fail.
Another possibility is what's called a pennant. It looks like what
you might think. And, again, it should not take long. Other
possibilities are that it will shoot up from here or fail completely
and fail back to the 16-17 area.
CREE is one of the half-dozen most promising stocks in the group, so I
doubt it will fail. But buying it, if you get stopped out, is going
to be tricky. If you're unsure of what you're doing, the best thing
would be to wait until it bases, which shouldn't take long, and watch
and wait and buy from there.
One of the most common errors that beginning investors make is not
giving themselves enough notice to find the right stocks and enough
time to do the research on them. If one waits for price change or
volume change information in IBD, he is most likely going to be too
late. Even if one has a charting program and runs nightly scans of
the day's activity, he's probably still going to be late. One of the
best ways I know of to give oneself advance notice of what to track is
to follow groups (after the market, of course). This gives one at
least a clue as to where to begin the work. By creating composites of
these groups, or by following the charts of indices at bigcharts.com,
one can compare each of the stocks in each group to its composite or
appropriate index and see which stocks (about 15 in the semi group)
are outperforming the group as a whole. That's the technical part.
Then one looks at the earnings histories, among other things, and
narrows this group down to an even smaller number of stocks. That's
the fundamental part (this, in a nutshell, is basically what Ian
Woodward is saying in the post I referred to earlier in the day).
Once you have the stocks that meet CS standards, you then go back to
the charts and see what's buyable. If they've all left the barn, you
pick your spot and you wait. There're always multiple opportunities.
It's when we feel rushed into making a decision that we are most
likely to make expensive mistakes. Sometimes a group takes off
without warning and no preliminary work has been done. One feels as
though he's missed the boat and the temptation is there to just jump
on the stock with the most upward momentum. But that's not what CS is
all about. Even if a group does suddenly take off, it only takes a
few hours to do the work necessary to find the best stocks. If
they're all too far gone within a day, it's a fairly safe bet that at
least some of them will come back to test support or return to a
buyable range or point within a few days. And at that time you'll be
waiting and ready to pounce.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
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- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 19:54:42 -0500
From: Ari Lawson <arilaw@erols.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE CS entry
Following CANSLIM and watching CREE the correct entry point was 10/16 at
the breakout. I would have even hoped to have sold at least some of it
yesterday.At second glance of the chart it actually broke out on 10/15.
Ari
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 17:36:28 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE CS entry
After making my last post, I went through my groups again after having
updated them with today's data. As far as I can tell, nothing has
changed in terms of group strength--the two I mentioned earlier still
look the best. Keep in mind, however, that results depend on how the
groups are composed in the first place.
Elec - Semi Equip is close behind the chip group. If anybody's
interested in going through the exercise I mentioned earlier, the
following are semi equip stocks which have ADVs of 60K or greater and
which are more than $10 as of today (O'N's cutoff is $16). There are
over 70 stocks in the group, but only 23 after using these filters.
The group chart is very much like the SOX chart. Again, if you're
interested, go to bigcharts.com and print out a one-year daily chart
of the SOX with the usual 17, 50, and 200d SMAs (or EMAs if you
prefer). Then create charts of each of the following using the same
timespan and MAs (you needn't print them). Select those which are at
least as good as the SOX chart--price headed up, 50d headed up, 17d
headed up, perhaps crossing the 50d (they crossed today on the SOX and
are just touching on the group chart). And those will be the stocks
you begin to research (there will be approximately 10), if you want a
jump on them.
- --Db
AMAT
ASMLF
ASYT
ATMI
BRKS
CMOS
DPMI
EGLS
ETEC
HELX
KLAC
KLIC
LRCX
NVLS
ORBKF
PLAB
PRIA
QKTN
SFAM
SVGI
TER
UTEK
VECO
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 19:09:48 -0800
From: Tim Fisher <tim@orerockon.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results
Here's my results based on September data. Yeah, it's late but then I haven't
been buying either! They look best in HTML; I will not send in text anymore.
The file is at:
ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/CASLI-09-98.html
I ignored shares out - only two biggies cut the mustard anyway. The rest of the
criteria more or less follow Db's reinterpretation of HTMMIS to include D/E and
ROE. These RS numbers STINK! This has to be the lowest ratings I have seen
since I started this scan. Can't wait till October data is out!
Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 23:26:46 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution
To add to this, the early session highs were made on extremely light
volume, around 200 mil shares compared to a more typical 300 mil +.
Not exactly a bullish signal (I still say someone should start a
second rate car rental business called "Not Exactly", look at all the
free advertising!!).
FWIW, I'm still grudgingly long.
Tom W
- -----Original Message-----
From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net>
To: canslim@mail.xmission.com <canslim@mail.xmission.com>
Date: Tuesday, October 27, 1998 6:07 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution
Distribution day in the indices...multi-day high near the open,
followed
by a close unchanged to lower on an increase in volume over yesterday.
200 day moving averages in play, and providing resistance, A/D
becoming
less robust and sentiment spiking bullish last week with probable
increase this week.
For what it's worth, I'm short.
JW
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 20:37:24 -0800 (PST)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results
<<The rest of the criteria more or less follow Db's reinterpretation
of HTMMIS to include D/E and ROE.>>
You still seem to be under the impression that I'm making it up.
From Week 15, "Putting the Stock-Picking Puzzle Together", IBD:
"6 Is the return on equity 20% to 50% or more?"
- --W J O'Neil
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 23:39:54 EST
From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] ACC/Dis numbers
Below are the current Acc/Dis numbers thru 10/27. The second set can be saved,
then opened by excel for importing
date A B C D E a+b/a-e %e
10/12/98 295 1220 1124 1735 1888 24.19% 30.15%
10/13/98 289 1330 1156 1775 1750 25.70% 27.78%
10/14/98 306 1405 1232 1780 1628 26.94% 25.63%
10/15/98 310 1409 1209 1785 1612 27.18% 25.49%
10/16/98 327 1470 1255 1750 1516 28.44% 23.99%
10/19/98 387 1664 1400 1663 1282 32.07% 20.04%
10/20/98 431 1861 1472 1573 1088 35.67% 16.93%
10/21/98 465 2022 1520 518 928 45.61% 17.02%
10/22/98 527 2300 1519 1375 775 43.52% 11.93%
10/23/98 542 2374 1528 1333 733 44.79% 11.26%
10/26/98 611 2451 1536 1261 679 46.83% 10.39%
10/27/98 629 2534 1480 1267 643 48.27% 9.81%
Below are comma seperated numbers for spreed sheet use:
date,A,B,C,D,E,a+b/a-e,%e,
,,,,,,62-75%,<4%,Ideal Range
10/12/98,295,1220,1124,1735,1888,24.19%,30.15%,
10/13/98,289,1330,1156,1775,1750,25.70%,27.78%,
10/14/98,306,1405,1232,1780,1628,26.94%,25.63%,
10/15/98,310,1409,1209,1785,1612,27.18%,25.49%,
10/16/98,327,1470,1255,1750,1516,28.44%,23.99%,
10/19/98,387,1664,1400,1663,1282,32.07%,20.04%,
10/20/98,431,1861,1472,1573,1088,35.67%,16.93%,
10/21/98,465,2022,1520,518,928,45.61%,17.02%,
10/22/98,527,2300,1519,1375,775,43.52%,11.93%,
10/23/98,542,2374,1528,1333,733,44.79%,11.26%,
10/26/98,611,2451,1536,1261,679,46.83%,10.39%,
10/27/98,629,2534,1480,1267,643,48.27%,9.81%,
Robert
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 21:52:26 -0800
From: "Patrick Wahl" <pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
> I have posted once or twice before. I am relatively new to investing and
> very new to CANSLIM. Here is what happened today. I have been looking at
> CREE for about a week now. It looked good, in my inexperience eyes I was
> seeing a cup with handle formation starting in the last coupe of weeks in
> Sept. dropping down into the cup the first couple of weeks in Oct and the
> handle last week. As you know it closed at 24 and change on Friday. It ran
I am surprised the RS is 99. Just looking at the chart before
looking up the RS, I would have guessed RS under 70. It was
essentially in a downtrend, with the bottom of the cup coming at a
52 week low. In fact, by my definition of a C&H, that formation is
NOT a C&H. They typically are part of a correction of 20-35% (or
so) of previous up move, so the low of the cup will still be above the
52 week lows. So personally I would have avoided this one, but it
has done well from its buy point.
POWI, to my way of looking at charts anyway, just completed a
C&H, take a look at that chart for an example of a C&H.
> take some profit which happened today. I got in at 26.87 its 25.75 now and
> the market is not closed yet. I have a stop loss in at 24.50 so I may get
> shaken out in the first wave. In IBD it looks great 99 99 AAA quarterly
> increases in place.
You are far past the buy point on your purchase, and you are
correct that at some point some profit taking is due, and where you
bought you are running the risk of stepping right into the middle of
that. Buy point was around 16 or 17, 10 percent max above that
would be 18, so you bought a much overextended stock. Could
still work out, but be careful, you are lowering your odds of
success considerably by doing this.
> I would love some experienced opinions. I wont be asking for advice before
> purchases. I feel like I need to go on my own decisions and live with the
> consequences. In WON's book he says be decisive. That's good advice. Though
> I expect it can be costly.
I don't think anyone minds someone asking for opinions prior to a
buy. You might not always get a reply, but you might get some
useful advice.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 23:52:01 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CREE
Here's what I see when I look at this one:
Established a pretty decent base/trading range centered on 15. Traded
at this level in August, and returned to it after a slight dip in
Sept, then held it thru early Oct. Not a reason to buy, but a reason
to hold if you already owned it. When the volume and price picked up
in mid Oct, a buy was justified up to about 16.50, after that despite
the volume it was simply too extended.
Every chart will look differently depending on what site or system you
are using. The key is to be consistent. I use Daily Graphs Online and
Big Charts, any other site I may happen to use is inconsequential to
me in reading the charts. On DGO, I see no evidence of a c&h, rather a
well defined flat base. But even if the site you are using showed it
as a c&h, buying more than 10% off the handle is chasing it, with all
the consequent risks.
Good points made on being patient, there's always (even usually in the
lousy mkts of the past several months) at least one or two trains
ready to leave the station. If you miss one, have several more worth
watching, and study them instead of chasing the one that's already out
of reach. It's tough to hit them perfectly, but if you at least catch
them within the 10% guideline, you greatly lessen your risk.
Tom W
- -----Original Message-----
From: Charles Cangialosi <chcng@worldnet.att.net>
To: canslim <canslim@xmission.com>
Date: Tuesday, October 27, 1998 4:08 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CREE
I have posted once or twice before. I am relatively new to investing
and
very new to CANSLIM. Here is what happened today. I have been looking
at
CREE for about a week now. It looked good, in my inexperience eyes I
was
seeing a cup with handle formation starting in the last coupe of weeks
in
Sept. dropping down into the cup the first couple of weeks in Oct and
the
handle last week. As you know it closed at 24 and change on Friday. It
ran
up some yesterday on good volume and came down a little today. I felt
like I
missed Friday I wanted to see what happens Monday, that is an error in
retrospect. Then when it ran up so much I decided that someone was
bound to
take some profit which happened today. I got in at 26.87 its 25.75 now
and
the market is not closed yet. I have a stop loss in at 24.50 so I may
get
shaken out in the first wave. In IBD it looks great 99 99 AAA
quarterly
increases in place.
I would love some experienced opinions. I wont be asking for advice
before
purchases. I feel like I need to go on my own decisions and live with
the
consequences. In WON's book he says be decisive. That's good advice.
Though
I expect it can be costly.
Thanks
Charlie
- -
- -
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #423
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