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1998-10-07
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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #406
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Precedence: bulk
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Thursday, October 8 1998 Volume 02 : Number 406
In this issue:
Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows)
Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows), Sorry
Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows)
[CANSLIM] Group Strength
Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
Re: [CANSLIM] Predictions
[CANSLIM] Russell 2000/Small Caps
Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
[CANSLIM] Website
[CANSLIM] Another bad day coming
[CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
RE: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Re: [CANSLIM] Another bad day coming
Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows)
Re: [CANSLIM] Another bad day coming
Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
Re: [CANSLIM] Help fight the vast right-wing conspiracy
Re: [CANSLIM] Help fight the vast right-wing conspiracy
[CANSLIM] AOL transcript from 10/7?
[CANSLIM] Flags and Poles
Re: [CANSLIM] 'M
Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
[CANSLIM] M in perspective
[CANSLIM] Group Performance
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 16:54:53 -0700 (PDT)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows)
Tom,
You've helped me with volatility before. Is this the same volatility
- - more or less measures the intraday spread, except in VIX, the
measurement is for an index rather than one security? Also, what
would be the ranges of volatility for VIX?
Versions of this topic keep surfacing. Since I still don't get it, I
appreciate being spoonfed for now.
Thanks,
TM
"> VIX is CBOE's volatility index, currently at 43.91 (extremely
high)."
- ---Tom Worley <stkguru@netside.net> wrote:
>
> Hi Dan,
>
> VIX is CBOE's volatility index, currently at 43.91 (extremely high).
> We need it back around 20 to get a good environment for CANSLIM type
> stocks.
>
> The emotional overreaction to news, events and fears of the past
> several months are well represented by VIX. In this high volatility
> climate, I believe it's next to impossible to make predictions on what
> will happen, but it does feel like we are just bouncing along the
> bottom, trying to find our way.
>
> Tom W
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Dan Musicant <musicant@autobahn.org>
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Date: Wednesday, October 07, 1998 7:46 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
>
> On Wed, 7 Oct 1998 07:20:48 -0400, you wrote:
>
> :Should be interesting the next several weeks. Maybe then we can see
> :the volatility settle down, and get VIX back down around 20.
> :
> :Tom W
> :
> Hiya Tom,
>
> What is VIX?
>
>
> -
>
>
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 17:01:21 -0700 (PDT)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows), Sorry
The questions were answered, just crossed in the mail.
TM
- ---TM <edmalone@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
> Tom,
>
> You've helped me with volatility before. Is this the same volatility
> - more or less measures the intraday spread, except in VIX, the
> measurement is for an index rather than one security? Also, what
> would be the ranges of volatility for VIX?
>
> Versions of this topic keep surfacing. Since I still don't get it, I
> appreciate being spoonfed for now.
>
> Thanks,
> TM
>
> "> VIX is CBOE's volatility index, currently at 43.91 (extremely
> high)."
>
>
>
>
>
> ---Tom Worley <stkguru@netside.net> wrote:
> >
> > Hi Dan,
> >
> > VIX is CBOE's volatility index, currently at 43.91 (extremely high).
> > We need it back around 20 to get a good environment for CANSLIM type
> > stocks.
> >
> > The emotional overreaction to news, events and fears of the past
> > several months are well represented by VIX. In this high volatility
> > climate, I believe it's next to impossible to make predictions on
what
> > will happen, but it does feel like we are just bouncing along the
> > bottom, trying to find our way.
> >
> > Tom W
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Dan Musicant <musicant@autobahn.org>
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Date: Wednesday, October 07, 1998 7:46 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
> >
> > On Wed, 7 Oct 1998 07:20:48 -0400, you wrote:
> >
> > :Should be interesting the next several weeks. Maybe then we can see
> > :the volatility settle down, and get VIX back down around 20.
> > :
> > :Tom W
> > :
> > Hiya Tom,
> >
> > What is VIX?
> >
> >
> > -
> >
> >
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
> -
>
>
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 17:26:57 -0700 (PDT)
From: Anindo Majumdar <amajumda@cisco.com>
Subject: Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows)
which stocks are forming CANSLIM bases and will be buys once M improves.
MNMD, BGEN, YHOO look pretty good.
Anindo
>
> Dan,
>
> I know very little about how it's calculated, or why it works. Several
> years ago a member of this group pointed out that CANSLIM seems to
> work best when VIX (which is a CBOE based index) was 20 or lower. I
> had looked at VIX off and on in prior years, but never paid that much
> attention to it. After the comment, I began watching its level
> compared to how CANSLIM type stocks appeared to do, and subjectively
> found that the correlation is very high. Didn't need to understand it
> further, just that it does seem to work as another good indicator of
> the climate.
>
> Possibly the CBOE website could explain it more fully, I've never
> tried to really research it.
>
> I get my quote on it from Infobeat. I suspect other sites also can
> quote it, tho possibly under different symbol.
>
> Tom W
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Dan Musicant <musicant@autobahn.org>
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Date: Wednesday, October 07, 1998 8:22 AM
> Subject: Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows)
>
>
> Tom,
>
> Where do you get VIX info? I did a websearch with not great results. I
> found a technical description for volatility determination for a
> specific stock at the following website:
> http://www.e-analytics.com/vol.htm
>
> Evidently, averaging the results of such calculations for the stocks
> of an entire exchange, or a set of exchanges, would give you such an
> index.
>
> Dan
>
> Formula For Calculating A Stock's Volatility Using a Lognormal
> Distribution
>
> Xi = ln[Pi divided by ((1+r)/52))Pi-1]
>
> Where:
>
> Xi = each price change
>
> Pi = price of the underlying security at the end of
> the i-th period
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 18:03:46 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
I just finished updating my database, my group compositions and my
surrogates. I've also increased the number of groups I follow to 103.
The following groups are the only ones whose 50d is greater than
their 200d as of today. Of these, the only ones whose 50d is flat or
rising are those with an asterisk.
10/07/98 - ["08.07 Coml Svcs Misc]
10/07/98 - ["09.06 Mini-Micro]
10/07/98 - ["09.09 Computer Services]
10/07/98 - ["09.14 Sftwre-Intern]
10/07/98 - ["24.02 Cable TV]
10/07/98 - ["25.01 Biomed/Geneti]*
10/07/98 - ["25.02 Drugs-Divers]
10/07/98 - ["25.03 Drugs-Ethical]
10/07/98 - ["25.04 Drugs-Generic]*
10/07/98 - ["25.07 Medl Instr]
10/07/98 - ["25.08 Medl Prods]*
10/07/98 - ["25.11 Whlsle Drgs/S]
10/07/98 - ["25.12 Medl/Dntl Svc]*
10/07/98 - ["32.01 Apparel/Shoe]
10/07/98 - ["32.06 Drug Stores]*
10/07/98 - ["32.07 Home Furnishi]
10/06/98 - ["32.11 Restaurants]
10/07/98 - ["36.01 Cellular]
10/07/98 - ["36.02 Telecom Equip]
10/07/98 - ["36.03 Telecom Svcs]
For the time being, looks like medical is still where it's at.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 21:19:40 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
Careful Peter, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!!
Besides, we ended up hitting a new 15 month low on Nasdaq. The bear's
clearly out of his cave, and gorging himself for the long winter
hibernation (which may start late this year).
Everything pretty much represents fresh meat for the bear, be it new
highs (thin hunting there); new lows (lots of fresh blood to arouse
the primal instincts); "value" stocks; high PEs, low PEs; techs;
non-techs; etc. Seems like the only sector groups to be surviving this
bloodbath are the closed end funds (no surprise) and the utilities
(clear dividend play).
I'm afraid the basic rule is: TAKE NO PRISONERS!
Tom W
- -----Original Message-----
From: Peter Newell <pnewell@mci2000.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Date: Wednesday, October 07, 1998 8:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
>Tom,
>
>I wish the volume would drop off during this "retest", I also wish
the
>%changes on stocks would ease up a bit. At least we're still picking
up
>resistance above 7500.
>
>Peter
>
>:Hope all members are prepared for another retest of the recent lows.
>:Charts are looking pretty ugly, MAs on up/down volume as well as new
>:highs/lows both solidly heading negative now. With the "wall of
worry"
>:over world economies seeming to be abating, and countries starting
to
>:cut rates to help out other countries, we may finally be starting to
>:find the bottom, with one final shake out necessary to clean up this
>:mess.
>:
>:Should be interesting the next several weeks. Maybe then we can see
>:the volatility settle down, and get VIX back down around 20.
>:
>:Tom W
>:
>
>
>-
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 21:47:25 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Predictions
Hi Mary,
Not necessarily in order of importance:
An upgrade by a major firm that has already been following and
reporting on a stock, but only if accompanied by a marked improvement
in both volume and price.
An upgrade by a major firm that has already been following and
reporting on a stock where the prior rating was better than neutral
(e.g. a short or long term hold type rating)
An initial rating by a major firm, when accompanied by both volume and
price increase that lasts more than a day or so, that is stronger than
a "long term accumulate"
A ratings improvement by a major firm that is based on increased
earnings forecasts
A ratings increase by a major firm, that is followed by similiar
increases by other major firms.
Needless to say, any and all of the above also accompanied by solid
CANSLIM elements, assuming you are a long term investor.
Bottom line, misery likes company, thus the more "elephants" that join
the stampede, the better your chance to at least temporarily enjoy
some paper profits, and have the opportunity to get out with a break
even or better if the CS elements go against you (assuming you have
better discipline than I)!
Cynical ex-broker that I am, the purpose served by a major wirehouse
in raising and lowering its ratings on various stocks is to give both
its retail and institutional managers an excuse to move money around
(e.g. Mr. Client, my firm/analyst just came out with a new report on
XYZ and I'm really excited about its short/long term potential. I
think we should pick up ??? shares right now before this thing
skyrockets!). Whether or not the house manages to move inventory, and
if so whether that is at a net gain or loss, is immaterial. They are
still assured of generating commissions at a minimum. If the
inventory, if any, is moved at a loss, it still is capital
repatriatied, and can be used for other purposes. Like any retail
operation, inventory = frozen capital; activity = capital released for
any other use. Brokerage houses do not make money on buy and hold;
they make money on activity. The same holds true for individual
brokers. Color me cynical.
Tom W
- -----Original Message-----
From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com <mckeener@ix.netcom.com>
To: canslim@xmission.com <canslim@xmission.com>
Date: Wednesday, October 07, 1998 10:15 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Predictions
>Tom,
>
><BTW, the most suspicious "ratings"
>I have seen in the industry occur
>when a firm "initiates coverage"
>with a hold or other negative rating.>
>
>So, in your opinion, what coverages
>would be more meaningful? What purpose
>do the brokerages fulfill with their
>recommendations?
>
>Mary
>
>
>
>-
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 07 Oct 1998 21:51:44 -0500
From: Dave Cameron <dfcameron@ameritech.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000/Small Caps
Facts:
The Russell 2000 handily dropped through what seemed to be a support line for
the
first half of 1997 - down to a level not seen since about June or July 1996.
Many of the small-cap funds (Acorn, PBHG growth, etc.) are at or close to 2
year lows as well. By my calculation, the Russell 2000 (RUT) is about 33% off
its high set earlier this year. Its also more than 20% off where it was at
the start of the year.
Conclusion: Despite all the "gee are we in a bear market comments" - this
market continues to drub small caps much more than large caps.
Comment: I find this counter-intuitive. Many stocks are dropping because
of troubles in the global arena. Most U.S. small caps have no
exposure outside of the U.S. Most U.S. large caps have exposure
outside of the U.S. Hence, if the market were logical, these
concerns would drop large caps more than small.
What am I doing? Limiting my screens to stocks with a market cap of
under $1 billion. Many of these are showing 40-50% earnings growth,
and are down 50% from their peak. Not exactly CANSLIM, but what
the heck.... I didn't say I was buying yet.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 07 Oct 1998 22:08:53 -0500
From: "John Adair, M.D." <xjadair@mail.brightok.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Db Hi.
I looked for gold mining stocks. They are going up every day. Every day
that the dollar goes down Gold will go up. I have not been a fan of gold
but I see Charles Schwab is recommending Gold. I know you are thorough so
have a good reason for not mentioning gold. Would you give me your opinion
on Gold at this time.
John Adair
dbphoenix wrote:
> I just finished updating my database, my group compositions and my
> surrogates. I've also increased the number of groups I follow to 103.
> The following groups are the only ones whose 50d is greater than
> their 200d as of today. Of these, the only ones whose 50d is flat or
> rising are those with an asterisk.
>
> 10/07/98 - ["08.07 Coml Svcs Misc]
> 10/07/98 - ["09.06 Mini-Micro]
> 10/07/98 - ["09.09 Computer Services]
> 10/07/98 - ["09.14 Sftwre-Intern]
> 10/07/98 - ["24.02 Cable TV]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.01 Biomed/Geneti]*
> 10/07/98 - ["25.02 Drugs-Divers]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.03 Drugs-Ethical]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.04 Drugs-Generic]*
> 10/07/98 - ["25.07 Medl Instr]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.08 Medl Prods]*
> 10/07/98 - ["25.11 Whlsle Drgs/S]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.12 Medl/Dntl Svc]*
> 10/07/98 - ["32.01 Apparel/Shoe]
> 10/07/98 - ["32.06 Drug Stores]*
> 10/07/98 - ["32.07 Home Furnishi]
> 10/06/98 - ["32.11 Restaurants]
> 10/07/98 - ["36.01 Cellular]
> 10/07/98 - ["36.02 Telecom Equip]
> 10/07/98 - ["36.03 Telecom Svcs]
>
> For the time being, looks like medical is still where it's at.
>
> --Db
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 21:19:22 -0800
From: "Patrick Wahl" <pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@xmission.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
> Hope all members are prepared for another retest of the recent lows.
> Charts are looking pretty ugly, MAs on up/down volume as well as new
> highs/lows both solidly heading negative now. With the "wall of worry"
> over world economies seeming to be abating, and countries starting to
> cut rates to help out other countries, we may finally be starting to
> find the bottom, with one final shake out necessary to clean up this
> mess.
No one seems to have mentioned this, but the Russell 2000 has hit
new lows each of the last two days. My charts certainly reflect
this, everything with few exceptions looks awful.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 20:41:38 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
<<Db Hi.
I looked for gold mining stocks. They are going up every day. Every day
that the dollar goes down Gold will go up. I have not been a fan of gold
but I see Charles Schwab is recommending Gold. I know you are
thorough so
have a good reason for not mentioning gold. Would you give me your
opinion
on Gold at this time.
John Adair>>
Sorry, John. The gold group is not one that I follow. The only
reason is that it's not an aggressive growth industry. In fact, it
seems to me that most of the price swings have to do with perceptions
of world events rather than anything having to do with gold itself.
Perhaps some other member can provide you with more intelligent
commentary.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 21:20:21 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Website
I don't remember anyone mentioning this, but I thought it was pretty
cool as far as being concise and having some good ideas. Useful for
the CSer on the run.
http://www.stocksheet.com/
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 07:53:41 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Another bad day coming
A real mixed bag in global markets so far. Asia mostly did OK, the one
notable exception being Japan, which fell back to 13,026, down nearly
800 pts (5.78%). Most of Europe is down 2% or better, several
including Germany down 5%.
The dollar continues to crash against the yen, now at 114, as well
falling against all other major currencies. That's over a 20% drop
against the yen despite the collapsing Japanese economy. It'll help
strengthen gold, maybe even oil, and make US exports less costly thus
stimulating the US multnationals foreign trade.
Futures once again also down sharply, led (naturally) by NASDAQ, down
nearly 3% last time I looked, and S&P down 2%. Let's see, if we keep
losing at this rate, how many days does it take to reach zero?? At
least then the pain would be over and only one way we could go (unless
we go sideways!).
Tom W
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 06:05:03 -0600
From: "Dan Sutton" <dsutton1@cris.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
For what it's worth, last night I ran a search in TELESCAN for stocks with
the same characteristics as Dell.(ie 1 year price growth greater than 100% ,
1 year earnings growth rate greater than 25%, 1year, 2 year and 5 year
projected earnings growth rate greater than 20%, no negative earnings
surprises in the last 4 quarters, etc).
The top 20 of these are:
MSFT
WLA
DELL
EMC
SLR
WPI
PAYX
KSS
MRD
DY
SPLS
DG
ASGN
RWAY
BBBY
PSUN
HH
HMA
HEI
FDO
Only 4 of these are above their 50 DMA (MRD, BBBY, HH, FDO)
Only 9 are above their 200 DMA (MSFT, WLA, DELL, EMC, SLR, WPI, PAYX, MRD,
SPLS).
I have not looked at all their charts yet, but will be looking for a base
and some moving average crosses before buying anymore of them.
Any thoughts?
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 08:19:56 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
Dan,
Would any be added to the list if you looked for ones with all the
same fundamentals, but without the one year price growth of 100% (e.g.
spot the ones with the potential to move like DELL, but haven't done
so yet (or gave it all back)?
Tom W
- -----Original Message-----
From: Dan Sutton <dsutton1@cris.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Date: Thursday, October 08, 1998 8:06 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
>For what it's worth, last night I ran a search in TELESCAN for stocks
with
>the same characteristics as Dell.(ie 1 year price growth greater than
100% ,
>1 year earnings growth rate greater than 25%, 1year, 2 year and 5
year
>projected earnings growth rate greater than 20%, no negative earnings
>surprises in the last 4 quarters, etc).
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 06:25:53 -0600
From: "Dan Sutton" <dsutton1@cris.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
Good idea. I will run that one tonight. The scan I used was one that gave me
several winners during May and June, but obviously with the market having
changed a bit I need to readjust the scan.
Thanks
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Thursday, October 08, 1998 6:20 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
Dan,
Would any be added to the list if you looked for ones with all the
same fundamentals, but without the one year price growth of 100% (e.g.
spot the ones with the potential to move like DELL, but haven't done
so yet (or gave it all back)?
Tom W
- -----Original Message-----
From: Dan Sutton <dsutton1@cris.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Date: Thursday, October 08, 1998 8:06 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
>For what it's worth, last night I ran a search in TELESCAN for stocks
with
>the same characteristics as Dell.(ie 1 year price growth greater than
100% ,
>1 year earnings growth rate greater than 25%, 1year, 2 year and 5
year
>projected earnings growth rate greater than 20%, no negative earnings
>surprises in the last 4 quarters, etc).
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 05:33:13 -0700 (PDT)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Db-
1. What is the distinction between group composition and surrogate?
2. What is ["08.07]?
3. I've been reading Sam Stovall's 'Sector Investing'. He seems to
imply that high growing stocks are situational in that they are in
industries that "benefit from the coming economic developments through
an acceleration in earnings growth". I'm trying to distinguish
between a High Growth Industry and an industry that has gotten lucky
because of the economy at a particular moment (like gold).
4. Thanks for the stocksheet site and your web page.
TM
- ---dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
> I just finished updating my database, my group compositions and my
> surrogates. I've also increased the number of groups I follow to 103.
> The following groups are the only ones whose 50d is greater than
> their 200d as of today. Of these, the only ones whose 50d is flat or
> rising are those with an asterisk.
>
> 10/07/98 - ["08.07 Coml Svcs Misc]
> 10/07/98 - ["09.06 Mini-Micro]
> 10/07/98 - ["09.09 Computer Services]
> 10/07/98 - ["09.14 Sftwre-Intern]
> 10/07/98 - ["24.02 Cable TV]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.01 Biomed/Geneti]*
> 10/07/98 - ["25.02 Drugs-Divers]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.03 Drugs-Ethical]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.04 Drugs-Generic]*
> 10/07/98 - ["25.07 Medl Instr]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.08 Medl Prods]*
> 10/07/98 - ["25.11 Whlsle Drgs/S]
> 10/07/98 - ["25.12 Medl/Dntl Svc]*
> 10/07/98 - ["32.01 Apparel/Shoe]
> 10/07/98 - ["32.06 Drug Stores]*
> 10/07/98 - ["32.07 Home Furnishi]
> 10/06/98 - ["32.11 Restaurants]
> 10/07/98 - ["36.01 Cellular]
> 10/07/98 - ["36.02 Telecom Equip]
> 10/07/98 - ["36.03 Telecom Svcs]
>
> For the time being, looks like medical is still where it's at.
>
> --Db
>
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
> -
>
>
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 09:00:31 -0400
From: Scott Vickery <vickery_scott@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another bad day coming
And back out of the wood work I come for a quick question:
Where do you check the Futures, and which ones do you check for clues as
to what the day is going to do?
And thanks for your commentaries, I enjoy reading them.
Scott Vickery
Tom Worley wrote:
> A real mixed bag in global markets so far. Asia mostly did OK, the one
>
> notable exception being Japan, which fell back to 13,026, down nearly
> 800 pts (5.78%). Most of Europe is down 2% or better, several
> including Germany down 5%.
>
> The dollar continues to crash against the yen, now at 114, as well
> falling against all other major currencies. That's over a 20% drop
> against the yen despite the collapsing Japanese economy. It'll help
> strengthen gold, maybe even oil, and make US exports less costly thus
> stimulating the US multnationals foreign trade.
>
> Futures once again also down sharply, led (naturally) by NASDAQ, down
> nearly 3% last time I looked, and S&P down 2%. Let's see, if we keep
> losing at this rate, how many days does it take to reach zero?? At
> least then the pain would be over and only one way we could go (unless
>
> we go sideways!).
>
> Tom W
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 06:10:49 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Looking for a watchlist
<<I have not looked at all their charts yet, but will be looking for a
base
and some moving average crosses before buying anymore of them.
Any thoughts?>>
Unless it makes you too nervous, consider buying off the W pattern
rather than wait for a base. Some of these may not wait.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
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- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 06:17:22 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
<<Db-
1. What is the distinction between group composition and surrogate?
2. What is ["08.07]?>>
Group composition means all the stocks in the group, which can be more
than a hundred, though in this case I did filter them for ADV.
A surrogate is a group of stocks that represents the strongest stocks
in the group. In other words, it's not meant to be representative of
the group as a whole but of the leaders in the group. The purpose of
a surrogate is to show strength or weakness at turning points before
the chart of the group as a whole would do so. Thus a surrogate for
the drillers, for example, showed weakness last Fall long before the
group chart or GS ranking did (if I remember correctly, the drillers
were ranked 99 for several weeks after it was obvious that the group
was in serious trouble).
The numbers are only a system I came up with for myself. They have no
meaning in and of themselves.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 13:17:29 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: VIX (was Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows)
On Wed, 7 Oct 1998 07:12:30 -0700 (PDT), you wrote:
:Dan:
:The VIX is available from Yahoo. Symbol is ^VIX. Tom will correct me
:if this is wrong but I believe that it is the implied volatility of
:the S&P500 index determined from the spreads on its options. Ther is
:a good corelation between the performance of low cap stocks (Russell
:200 Index) and low volatility. I wonder if this correlation also
:exists for individual stocks? =20
Rolatzi, all.
Thanks for the tips and info. Yes, ^VIX works at Yahoo for the index.
You can enter this symbol into any Yahoo portfolio that you have
created and it returns the number, currently 48.27!
Dan
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 13:25:50 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another bad day coming
On Thu, 08 Oct 1998 09:00:31 -0400, you wrote:
:And back out of the wood work I come for a quick question:
:
:Where do you check the Futures, and which ones do you check for clues as
:to what the day is going to do?
:
:And thanks for your commentaries, I enjoy reading them.
:Scott Vickery
:
:Tom Worley wrote:
:
:> A real mixed bag in global markets so far. Asia mostly did OK, the one
:>
I can't speak for Tom, but I suspect that he gets the CME futures
figures same place I do:
http://www.cme.com/market/gflash.html
Now I'd appreciate any hints or otherwise deeper info on how to
interpret what one sees there, as I see nothing there or much in the
way of clues on this score.
I have been visiting this site regularly for something like a year and
look at the 4 figures on the left, the ones currently averaging around
- -2800. The -3200 says the Nasdaq is poised for another selloff, at
least at the open, and the first is the SP500. What the others are, I
do not know: E-Mini, Dec98 and Mar99.
CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE CONTRACT LAST NET
CHGE
S&P 500 DEC98 954.00 -2500 EURO $ DEC98 95.1100A
+9
E-MINI DEC98 954.00 -2500 MAR99 95.5450
+9.5
MAR99 962.50 -2500 JUN99 95.6700
+10
NSDQ100 DEC98 1131.50A -3200 SEP99 95.7050B
+9
GSCI =20
Dan
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 13:28:58 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
On Wed, 7 Oct 1998 21:19:22 -0800, you wrote:
:From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
:To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@xmission.com>
:Subject: [CANSLIM] retest of the lows
:
:> Hope all members are prepared for another retest of the recent lows.
:> Charts are looking pretty ugly, MAs on up/down volume as well as new
:> highs/lows both solidly heading negative now. With the "wall of worry"
:> over world economies seeming to be abating, and countries starting to
:> cut rates to help out other countries, we may finally be starting to
:> find the bottom, with one final shake out necessary to clean up this
:> mess.
:
:No one seems to have mentioned this, but the Russell 2000 has hit=20
:new lows each of the last two days. My charts certainly reflect=20
:this, everything with few exceptions looks awful. =20
:
The R2000 retreat doesn't surprise me in the least. With the exception
of a handful of days the last year, the R2000 has been a headshaker.
Dan
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 13:42:24 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Help fight the vast right-wing conspiracy
On Wed, 7 Oct 1998 09:39:47 -0700 (PDT), you wrote:
:
:If somebody has the cojones to open an .exe from an anonymous
:impostor, let me know. I'd love to know just what this thing is and
:how it got here.
:
:--Db
:
Not what I'd call cajones...more like folly. Anyway, I wouldn't try it
without Norton AV running in the background ( it is ). I try not to
double-click strange .EXE files.=20
Dan
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 13:45:42 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Help fight the vast right-wing conspiracy
On Wed, 07 Oct 1998 16:12:47 -0400, you wrote:
:I run with two layers of antivirus and a firewall.=20
:So just call me sadistic. :-)=20
:
:It is virus free and is not a trojan.
:It is also very cute! You shouldn't miss it.
:( They should have zipped it though!)=20
Hey, it IS cute. Zipped? It's only 12k.
Dan
:But be sure and vote for the real laugh!
:First time I laughed out loud today!=20
:
:Frank Wolynski
:
:At 09:39 AM 10/7/98 -0700, you wrote:
:>
:>If somebody has the cojones to open an .exe from an anonymous
:>impostor, let me know. I'd love to know just what this thing is and
:>how it got here.
:>
:>--Db
:>
:
:-
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 09:52:18 -0400
From: Peter Newell <pnewell@mci2000.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] AOL transcript from 10/7?
Did anyone catch this or know where to get transcripts from WON's chats?
Thanks,
Peter Newell
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 07:51:33 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Flags and Poles
Here's a good chance to test out the theory on price targets for flag
formations. The downside target for the Naz, according to the
wizards, is 1400. We will see. We will see.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 19:22:34 +0200
From: Johan Van Houtven <Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M
>The NASDAQ is now near the recent low [1477] and near the support line that
>connects 01/12/97 and 09/01/98.
>
>Will we break thru this line? I hope so. }8^)
Got my wish.
1350-ish is reasonable support. 1200-ish is next support level and that
looks like better support to me. With the heavy volume today, this might be
a bottom (panic selling?).
Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 13:29:44 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Hi TM,
Just curious if the "Sector Investing" was a recent purchase?
If so, where did you get it?
I have searched hi & lo for a copy, but it is out of print.
Both editions.
Best Regards,
Frank Wolynski
At 05:33 AM 10/8/98 -0700, you wrote:
>
>Db-
>1. What is the distinction between group composition and surrogate?
>2. What is ["08.07]?
>3. I've been reading Sam Stovall's 'Sector Investing'. He seems to
>imply that high growing stocks are situational in that they are in
>industries that "benefit from the coming economic developments through
>an acceleration in earnings growth". I'm trying to distinguish
>between a High Growth Industry and an industry that has gotten lucky
>because of the economy at a particular moment (like gold).
>4. Thanks for the stocksheet site and your web page.
>
>TM
>---dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>> I just finished updating my database, my group compositions and my
>> surrogates. I've also increased the number of groups I follow to 103.
>> The following groups are the only ones whose 50d is greater than
>> their 200d as of today. Of these, the only ones whose 50d is flat or
>> rising are those with an asterisk.
>>
>> 10/07/98 - ["08.07 Coml Svcs Misc]
>> 10/07/98 - ["09.06 Mini-Micro]
>> 10/07/98 - ["09.09 Computer Services]
>> 10/07/98 - ["09.14 Sftwre-Intern]
>> 10/07/98 - ["24.02 Cable TV]
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.01 Biomed/Geneti]*
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.02 Drugs-Divers]
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.03 Drugs-Ethical]
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.04 Drugs-Generic]*
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.07 Medl Instr]
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.08 Medl Prods]*
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.11 Whlsle Drgs/S]
>> 10/07/98 - ["25.12 Medl/Dntl Svc]*
>> 10/07/98 - ["32.01 Apparel/Shoe]
>> 10/07/98 - ["32.06 Drug Stores]*
>> 10/07/98 - ["32.07 Home Furnishi]
>> 10/06/98 - ["32.11 Restaurants]
>> 10/07/98 - ["36.01 Cellular]
>> 10/07/98 - ["36.02 Telecom Equip]
>> 10/07/98 - ["36.03 Telecom Svcs]
>>
>> For the time being, looks like medical is still where it's at.
>>
>> --Db
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _________________________________________________________
>> DO YOU YAHOO!?
>> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>>
>>
>> -
>>
>>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 08 Oct 1998 19:45:01 +0200
From: Johan Van Houtven <Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M in perspective
To put things in perspective:
The all-time NASD intraday high was: 2028.
Todays intra-day low thus far: 1357. The level were we were in May 97.
If we go up 50% (49.44% to be more precise) from here we will be at that
old intraday high.
Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 10:38:27 -0700
From: "Joe Barger" <barger@aero.org>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Performance
Well, with the NAZ down 103 and since I've got a free moment, I thought I'd
share my thoughts on groups and surrogates. I was spending way too much
time doing housekeeping on my surrogates and beginning to wonder if there
wasn't a better (or at least adequate) way. So this is what I'm currently
doing:
Tools: IBD Industry Group and Ticker Symbol Index (to get the list of
stocks in a group)
QP2 (end of day data and fundamentals)
IRL (to build the group and surrogate composites)
MS (detailed analysis)
Method: Enter all the symbols for the groups I'm interested in (the biggest
pain, but only needs to be done once with occasional updates). Currently
I'm tracking 76 groups (past and present HGS groups and a few others).
Filter the raw groups with a QP2 scan for close>$7, ADV>40K, MKTCAP>50M.
This initial screen (hopefully) gets rid of the real dogs and is the basis
for my "group" analysis. I then look at the stocks in each group and try to
identify the leaders to put in my group surrogates. To do this I sort the
members of the group by QRS (similar to IBD's RS) and keep all the stocks
with QRS > 80 or so. If that results in less than 5 stocks (seems to me
there needs to be at least 5 stocks to make a good surrogate), it becomes
much more subjective. I look at the overall QRS and look for a break, such
as a gap of around 10 points or so and take the stocks greater than the gap.
I may also look at the charts and eliminate really broken charts, etc. I
then use IRL to build the indexes for each group and surrogate. In MS I've
setup several different explorations to see how the groups, surrogates, and
individual stocks are doing. This includes a modified version of the Ian RS
and Ian velocity formulas given in IRL to speed them up a bit.
So, after all that (which, except for the initial raw group building, takes
less than an hour), this is what I've got based on yesterday's (Oct. 7)
closing prices:
Surrogates with 50d EMA > 200d EMA:
(* = Groups with 50d EMA > 200d EMA)
Med-BioGen
Med-GenDrug
Med-Prod
CmlSv-Misc
Cmp-LocNet
Cmp-MemDev
Cmp-OptRecg
Cmp-Serv
CmpIntgSys *
CmpMinMic *
CmpPeriEq
CmpSW-DT *
CmpSW-Entrpr
CmpSW-Intr *
CmpSW-Med
FinlSer-Misc
Ins-PrCasTit
Med-EthDrug
Med-Instr
MedDen-Sup
Media-Cable *
Ret-AppShoe
Ret-ConsElc *
Ret-Mail&Dir
Ret-Restr
Ret-SprMkts *
Ret-WhlsComp
Telc-Cell
Telc-Svcs
However, no groups have a positive 50d EMA slope, and only the Med-BioGen,
Med-GenDrug, and Med-Prod surrogates have a positive 50d EMA slope.
The top Ian RS for the groups (in order):
O&GUSExpPro
El-Conn
El-MilSys
O&GMachEq
Ret-SprMkts
Med-BioGen
Med-NrsgHm
Med-EthDrug
Media-Cable
Med-Prod
Med-HMO
Med-Instr
Med-GenDrug
CmlSv-SecSft
and for the surrogates:
O&GUSExpPro
Med-GenDrug
Med-BioGen
Med-NrsgHm
Med-Prod
El-Conn
O&GMachEq
Med-Instr
Ret-SprMkts
Telc-Svcs
Ret-Restr
El-MilSys
Med-EthDrug
CmpPeriEq
I should caution that I just threw the Ian RS formula together and I haven't
had a chance to "debug" it yet, but at first blush it looks like it's
working.
I may rebuild my groups and surrogates when things settle down a bit (I did
these last week), but I don't think it pays to do it too often. Perhaps
once near the bottom (to identify the leaders out of the bottom) and once
near the top (to identify the early breakdown of overextended leaders).
There are many possible variations on the criteria for building the groups
and surrogates (EPS, various MAs, etc, etc, etc), but the criteria I'm using
at the moment seem to fit my needs. Any and all thoughts appreciated.
joe
- -
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #406
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