home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.xmission.com
/
2014.06.ftp.xmission.com.tar
/
ftp.xmission.com
/
pub
/
lists
/
canslim
/
archive
/
v02.n383
< prev
next >
Wrap
Internet Message Format
|
1998-09-12
|
33KB
From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #383
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Precedence: bulk
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Sunday, September 13 1998 Volume 02 : Number 383
In this issue:
[CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength
[CANSLIM] Johan
Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
[CANSLIM] Slim Pickings
Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
[CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance
Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength
[CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance
Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
[CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production
Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Re: [CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production
Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 07:01:56 -0400
From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength
> Part One
>
> The outlook is much brighter this week. Quite a few groups have begun
> pulling themselves up off the bottom. Of the groups I follow, 16 have
> broken upward through their 17d MAs (everything is still below the 50d
> except for Drug Stores, but this group is unduly affected by Long's).
>
> The following broke above their 17d MAs today. Some of them may have
> broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below. If so, the
> count begins again when they reemerge to the upside.
>
> Integrated Systems
> Mainframes
> SW Security
> Biomed-Genetics
> Generic Drugs
> Hospitals
> Medl/Dentl Svcs
> Production/Pipeline
> Drug Stores
> Whlsle Fds
>
> The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days:
>
> Drilling
> Field Services
> Machinery/Equipment
> Exploration & Production
> US Integrated
>
> Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days.
>
Thanks for this update, Db. Group strength I appreciate, but could you
elaborate on the following comment and help me relate it to CANSLIM? Is
it a Woodward concept, WON, a Db concept?
> The following broke above their 17d MAs today. Some of them may have
> broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below. If so, the
> count begins again when they reemerge to the upside.
>
What are you counting after a group chart moves above its 17d MA?
Appreciate your thoughts.
Jeffry
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 07:12:58 -0400
From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Johan
> Jeffry,
>
> So you bought the futures you mentioned a while ago?
>
> >BTW, what tells you we are in a downtrend "even if we have [a follow through
> >day] today", Johann?
>
> Basically? The charts of the main indexes. Technically is is very unlikely
> that we are in a new upleg without any serious obstacles. In more detail?
> See my reply re: the 9/9 IBD Investor's corner article.
>
> BTW: Johan is written with one 'n'.
>
>
>
>
> - -- Johan Van Houtven
>
>
Sorry for my misspelling, Johan.
On the futures, I didn't buy the recent signals because of a delay in
getting my account funded. I am paper trading it off the recent
signals. Currently, a 2 lot in the Dec. mini-value line on with about a
40% lead (need to factor the rollover from the Sept. K, but that's about
right) on the average of the entries, at this point.
Account is funded now, so I am hoping for another reversal signal to get
long, but would consider a short on a distribution day. I'll update you
privately, if you wish. Pop me a note.
On the "more detail" portion of your market comment, I missed your reply
re: 9/9 IBD article and at this point, I have yet to see the article
itself (recent move has totally confused the Postal Service). Guess the
answers are there.
Regards.
Jeff
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 08:07:10 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
db,
Don't know nor care if your comments on oils were in part directed
towards me, but since I have made numerous comments on this sector in
the past six months or so, will add some further comments.
Some months ago, the oils groups were starting to look oversold and
potentially favorable. A number of members of this group, trying to
adhere to CANSLIM while still recognizing oversold/undervalued
opportunity, commented favorably on a nr of oil related cos. I
responded negatively. My comments were based on CANSLIM, technicals,
as well as my perception of the global situation. WON is not a
mechanic nor, to any heavy degree, a technician. While he incorporates
a lot of technical approach, he also uses fundies and "news" in
assessing "M". I try to do the same. We are in a global market whether
we like it or not, and despite a still successful US economy, we are
affected by the Asian flu, the Russian collapse, Zippergate, LATAM
economic collapses and devaluations, etc.
My comments on the oils groups over the past six months or so is based
primarily on supply and demand factors. With demand dropping, and
supply continuing or even rising, there was little chance that the
stocks could sustain a rally. Untill the supply and demand equation
turned positive (either by improved world economics enhancing demand
or by producers overcoming the loss of cash flow and cutting supply)
the overall "big picture" wasn't going to change enough to make it a
CANSLIM environment. A similar picture can be drawn for the
semiconductors groups. Too much supply, with demand falling off.
INTC's news this week may be showing a change here as well.
Whether we like it or not, news does play a part in the market, and
thus should play a role in our assessment of "M". This is true whether
we are a day trader, short term "investor", or investing for the
intermediate or long term. The bottom line remains whether our entry
point is lower than the present value and/or exit point. I never met
an investor happy that he finally owned a stock, only to have it
trading lower. Thus, correct entry remains paramount.
Because of their potential for "windfall" earnings, I think the oils
group has the possibility for becoming at least a short term, if not
intermediate term, leadership group. May not happen, and not sure now
is the right time to even consider opening any positions. But I do
think it is a good time to be watching them.
Tom W
- -----Original Message-----
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Date: Friday, September 11, 1998 11:49 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
>Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended
>
>While the idea that the oils will lead anything has been a source of
>great amusement for a few people, it's important not to get too
>wrapped up in an individual scenario but rather to focus on the
>charts. Drillers are up 35% from their bottom a week ago. Field
>Services are up 30%. Machinery & Equipment is up 40%. These may not
>be CS, but they beat the he** out of money market returns. (At least
>for the last couple of weeks. They may collapse by Tuesday.)
>
>While poring over various news items and trying to predict market
>activity based on these events is a diverting activity, it should not
>be taken too seriously, particularly by those new to the markets.
The
>fact is that no one can predict with any degree of certainty what is
>going to happen from one day to the next. This has been shown
clearly
>to be the case, as one pundit or another bemoans the market activity
>in Katmandu and the certain and imminent collapse of the U.S. markets
>when they open just moments from now. And, of course, by the end of
>the day the Dow is up several hundred points. (Technicians fall into
>the same trap when they try to move from what is to what might be to
>what will most likely be to what will be--can't be done.)
>
>At the very least, one must be aware of and keep in mind the market's
>discounting mechanism. As those who've followed the markets for a
>while know, this mechanism takes whatever information is available to
>it at any given moment and factors it into the stock or market price
>(whether the information is true or not is beside the point). Thus,
>Greenspan speaks and the markets rise as those who buy and sell
factor
>in the information that is provided (or that they think is
>provided)--in this case, an easing. One shouldn't be surprised if
the
>market rises no further in the event of such an easing because it has
>already been "discounted". Ditto with the devaluation of one
currency
>or another, the exposure of a scandal, the collapse of a government
>somewhere, an earthquake. It may take hours or only seconds, but
once
>this discounting has taken place, that's it, at least until the
>information has been further digested or reevaluated (which it may
not
>be, depending on its perceived importance).
>
>Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday,
fall
>by the same amount, or do nothing at all. But it's not possible to
>say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil
>or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems
>to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box or Wall
>Street Week or some bulletin board or other, is a serious mistake.
>O'N cautions investors to pay attention to daily market activity, not
>to what anyone says about daily market activity, and to focus on the
>charts, not to hopes or expectations or estimations or opinions or
>hype of any kind. The market may not pull itself out of this funk
>before November, or maybe not until January. But when it eventually
>does so, it will do so without the help of the talking heads (or
maybe
>in spite of them), and the leaders will be determined not by
>consensus, but by the demand which is reflected in their charts.
>Anyone who wishes to spot these leaders would do well to rid himself
>of whatever preconceptions he may have and begin following group
>strength and determining which are the most powerful stocks in the
>most rapidly accelerating groups.
>
>We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :)
>
>--Db
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 09:00:12 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Slim Pickings
From DGO's list of stocks in the books that hit new highs last week,
only 38 candidates. Lowest nr yet.
Of those, ones that have at least met the 80/80 test:
MNMD, SERO, LGTO, TSFW (that one seems to keep popping up on watch
lists!), SUT, BEI, JKHY, UFS, AGN, and MDU.
Haven't looked at the charts yet, just a preliminary screen.
Tom W
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 08:39:20 -0400
From: Robert Bomba <73223.2767@compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
>> But I do think it is a good time to be watching them. <<
I agree. The ones to watch are the ones with insider buying. A few off the
top of my head are ESV,MARY,DRQ & BJS. I use a weekly chart to follow them
verses a daily for my shorts. All four of these stocks have insider buying
& made IBD's % rise in volume on the upside at one time or another. I'm
waiting for the weekly to show me one higher low & one higher high then the
previous high/low. Then I'll start buying. I never buy at the bottom nor
sell at the top.
Bob
I own none of them & have been short this market for a while :-) but
looking for some longs.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 10:54:11 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance
<bold><underline>1 Week Group Performance Tabulations:
</underline></bold>
Thanks DB for the group assessments/chart interpretations. Most excellent
post. Thanks also to Tom and Robert Bomba (where do you get the insider
info?).
Great follow through posts. I'd rate them a 1% with Adv Vol. :-)
I extended the list to include the top 25. This to include some of the
other Oil groups which are continuing to follow through from last weeks
positive moves. They were overshadowed by some snap back moves in
severely oversold groups,(IE, Banks-Super, Airlines, Computer stuff).
The mechanics of the market are represented below!
Interpretations are left to you!
<bold><underline><bigger>Best 1 Week Performance:
</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk Percentage
This Week Last Week
Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking
<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>#
1 <fontfamily><param>Arial</param>Retail-Drug Stores 7.6 3 5
# 2 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 6.8 22 41
# 3 Computer-Local Networks 6.5 24 60
# 4 Computer Softwr-Security 6.4 181 173
# 5 Computer-Memory Devices 6.2 48 70
# 6 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip 6.1 190 194
# 7 Banks-Super Regional 5.7 106 135
# 8 Computer-Mini/Micro 5.7 2 1
# 9 Medical-Biomed/Genetics 5.3 89 86
#10 Household-Audio/Video 5.3 49 62
#11 Retail-Major Disc Chains 5.2 39 38
#12 Oil&Gas-US Integrated 5.1 109 146
#13 Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund 5.0 27 29
#14 Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod 5.0 133 158
#15 Media-Cable Tv 4.9 1 2
#16 Computer-Mainframes 4.4 11 18
#17 Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prods 4.4 57 89
#18 Oil & Gas-Drilling 4.3 197 197
#19 Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated 4.3 97 143
#20 Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell 4.2 79 88
#21 Metal-Steel Pipe & Tube 4.0 185 184
#22 Transportation-Airline 3.8 170 162
#23 Computer-Services 3.8 32 26
#24 Retail-Apparel/Shoe 3.7 38 32
#25 Oil&Gas-Field Services 3.7 184 186
</fontfamily>
</color><bold><underline><bigger>Worst 1 Week Performance:
</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk Percentage
This Week Last Week
Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking
<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188 Media-Periodicals -2.8 157 153
#189 Hsehold/Office Furniture -2.9 73 73
#190 Food-Canned -2.9 118 114
#191 Food-Diary Products -3.0 141 169
#192 Bldg-Cement/Concrt/Ag -3.5 51 22
#193 Machinery-Farm -3.5 191 193
#194 Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds -3.5 149 96
#195 Media-Radio/Tv -3.6 23 25
#196 Transport-Air Freight -4.3 196 189
#197 Real Estate Operations -5.2 67 51
</color>FWIW,
Frank Wolynski
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 08:30:28 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength
>>Group strength I appreciate, but could you
elaborate on the following comment and help me relate it to CANSLIM? Is
it a Woodward concept, WON, a Db concept?
> The following broke above their 17d MAs today. Some of them may have
> broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below. If so, the
> count begins again when they reemerge to the upside.
>
What are you counting after a group chart moves above its 17d MA?>>
Anything beyond a 50d MA and a rectangular base or handle within 15%
of a new high has nothing to do with CANSLIM. But as CS has become
more popular and the number of funds and daytraders have multiplied,
I've found the basic CS tools to be inadequate on their own, hence my
use of technical indicators based on moving averages and chart
patterns other than rectangular bases. This is a purely personal
perception and not intended as a condemnation of CS. Anyone who's
having luck with standard CS and the buy-the-breakout approach is to
be envied.
By "count" I don't mean to imply that there's anything mechanical
about this. When a stock is trending (or a group of stocks which is
represented by a composite chart), a moving average can be an
important tool to alert the investor as to a potential breakout or
breakdown, or at least a change in the character of the price
movement. Thus, if a stock is trending downward, say, and its descent
begins to slow, the angle of descent will either segue into a base or
reach zero. Assuming that it segues into a base, it will then either
break a downtrend line or a moving average, depending on how short the
moving average is and how long the stock has been in a descent. Some
stocks will then begin to turn upward into a U shape (I'm seeing a lot
of these). Very short-term traders and daytraders will find the
breaking of these MAs important and useful. Longer-term investors
will hope for a base because of what the base accomplishes.
If the stock does segue into a base, the MAs become less useful. A
stock can drift through its 17d or 50d MA repeatedly while it's basing
(depending on how long the basing process takes; at some point even
the 150 or 200 may come into play). Therefore, if a stock has broken
upward through the 17d (or 20d) and perhaps subsequently the 50d, one
wants to see it stay there. This indicates not only real demand, but
a real change in direction. If the stock falters and drops back below
whatever MA is being used, it can either be losing steam (it may have
broken through because of news or because of something having to do
with another stock in the group) or it can be seguing into a base.
Therefore, if one has a favorite group of stocks on a watchlist, some
of them have begun to show strength in terms of their relationships
with their moving averages and/or trendlines, and it seems to the
investor that it might be time to begin to accumulate them, he'd
expect these stocks to stay above whatever level is being used. If
they don't, then one must look at the possibility of further decline
or just simple basing. In either case, even accumulation may not be
appropriate as the basing process (if that's what it turns out to be)
can go on for months.
If the 17d is below the 50d and the 50d is below the 200, the stock
has to get through the 17 first. I want to see it break through that
average and stay there for at least two days, perhaps longer if
there's any question of a short-covering "rally". I also like to see
it closing at or near its highs for several days on the way up and
through (and there's always the volume to look at--and higher lows on
the way up are always a plus). If it wants to rest there, that's
fine, but I don't want to see it fall back through whatever line. If
it does, there may be a problem or it may be seguing into a base,
which means that I continue to keep my wallet in my pocket, at least
for the time being.
Woodward advises against buying any stock below its 200d unless you
know exactly what you're doing and have the discipline to get out at
the least hint of trouble. O'N implies the same thing by encouraging
the investor to stick with stocks with RS above 80, though as the
number of stocks below their 200d increases, this can become a sticky
point to debate. Both would say, I believe, that bottom-fishing is
appropriate only for cyclicals, commodity stocks, "mattress-stuffers",
and the like. Woodward counsels, however, that one not even touch an
individual stock until the group chart has shown the same strength
that one would require of a stock. In other words, if an investor
buys when the 17d breaks upward through the 50d, he'd wait to see this
strength in the group chart before taking a position in an individual
stock. This is consistent with O'N's view of the importance of the
group in stock movement. This may mean that the cautious investor may
have to let the first few stocks out of the gate move ahead without
him, but it also gives him assurance that there's something dependable
going on here.
My apologies for the length and for what may have been unnecessary
repetition.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 11:48:14 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance
<bold><underline>4 Week Group Performance Tabulations:
</underline></bold>
<bold><underline><bigger>Best 4 Week Performance:
</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk Percentage
This Week Last Week
Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking
<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param># 1 Metal
Ores-Gold/Silver 6.9 132 166
# 2 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 4.1 22 41
# 3 Retail-Drug Stores 3.8 3 5
# 4 Utility-Electric Power 1.8 9 11
# 5 Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated 1.8 97 143
# 6 Oil&Gas-US Integrated 0.1 109 146
</color><color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param># 7 Oil & Gas-Drilling
- -0.3 197 197
# 8 Medical-Drug/Diversified -0.9 6 8
# 9 Utility-Water Supply -1.7 4 4
#10 Utility-Gas Distribution -1.8 44 63
</color><color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>
</color><bold><underline><bigger>Worst 4 Week Performance:
</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk Percentage
This Week Last Week
Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking
<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188 Media-Periodicals
- -21.8 157 153
#189 Financial Services-Misc -22.4 84 55
#190 Computer Softwr-Educ/Entr -23.4 128 133
#191 Finance-Investment Mgmt -23.5 105 48
#192 Retail-Mail Order&Direct -24.7 159 139
#193 Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds -25.6 149 96
#194 Banks-Money Center -28.6 179 174
#195 Finance-Investment Bkrs -28.8 107 98
#196 Retail-Discount&Variety -28.8 145 102
#197 Computer Softwr-Internet -43.9 5 3
</color>
FWIW,
Frank Wolynski
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 08:51:17 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
<<Don't know nor care if your comments on oils were in part directed
towards me, but since I have made numerous comments on this sector in
the past six months or so, will add some further comments.>>
As a matter of fact, they weren't. I don't recall any particular
derision on your part.
The point of my comments on oils had nothing to do with oils per se.
They may collapse next week and continue to base, though that would be
a big plus right there. I said what I did because of the tendency of
so many to develop scenarios for themselves--whether based on their
own research or on the opinions of others--and then become wedded to
those scenarios. Believing that, for example, semiconductors can't
possibly lead the next leg of the bull market, they completely ignore
all evidence to the contrary until it becomes obvious even to Newsweek
that semiconductors (or software or consumer nondurables or whatever)
are in fact leading the next leg of the bull market. IMO, the best
advice O'N has ever given as part of CS is to learn how to interpret
the information he provides on IBD's indicators page. Only then can
one hope to filter out all the noise one gets from TV, magazines,
e-mail groups, message boards, newsletters and to eventually become
one's own guru.
It's also worth keeping in mind that the market looks ahead. To a
large extent, it couldn't care less what's going on today. It's
trying to figure out what life will be like in six to nine months.
Therefore, in the case of the oils, the current oversupply may be a
non-issue. Everybody knows about it and it's all been discounted.
Analysts who've been around for a while know how the pendulum swings
in this area, whether it be oil, beef, wheat, or bell peppers. It's
not all that difficult to go from drowning in oversupply to suffering
critical shortages. If the activity in certain stocks and groups
seems a mystery, it is often helpful to look ahead a couple of
quarters to see if any light dawns (if nothing else, the SQLY
comparisons starting next year for many, many stocks may be pretty
spectacular, if for no other reason than that earnings this year
sucked so badly).
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 12:04:31 EDT
From: Ssingh@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Nice post db
Surindra
In a message dated 9/11/98 11:53:35 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
dbphoenix@yahoo.com writes:
<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< snipped a lot >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended
While the idea that the oils will lead anything
And, of course, by the end of
the day the Dow is up several hundred points.
Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday, fall
by the same amount, or do nothing at all. But it's not possible to
say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil
or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems
to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box
We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :)
--Db >>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 13:10:19 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production
U.S. August Crude Oil Production Lowest Since 1954-EIA
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Crude oil production in the United States averaged
just 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the lowest level for that
month since 1954, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's preliminary
estimates showed. Low oil prices have made it too expensive in many parts
of the U.S. to continue drilling, while it's cheaper to buy crude from
foreign suppliers.
That trend was in evidence last month, when U.S. imports of crude averaged
9.3 million bpd -- up 700,000 bpd from last year's record high for the
month. The price of crude oil futures trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange has slid 37 percent since Oct. 3, 1997, when the front-month
contract traded at $22.76 a barrel. On Friday, the October crude oil
contract settled at $14.34.
Complete story at:
http://my.excite.com/news/r/980912/07/business-oil
Frank Wolynski
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 98 11:35:09 -0500
From: "Robert Gammon" <rgammon51@pdq.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Tom Worley wrote (in part)
My comments on the oils groups over the past six months or so is based
primarily on supply and demand factors. With demand dropping, and
supply continuing or even rising, there was little chance that the
stocks could sustain a rally. Untill the supply and demand equation
turned positive (either by improved world economics enhancing demand
or by producers overcoming the loss of cash flow and cutting supply)
the overall "big picture" wasn't going to change enough to make it a
CANSLIM environment. A similar picture can be drawn for the
semiconductors groups. Too much supply, with demand falling off.
INTC's news this week may be showing a change here as well.
- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I may be reading too much into this, BUT it does us well to remember
that the semiconductor chip (as opposed to semiconductor equipment)
market is more than just DRAMs and Intel CPUs. In DRAMs we do have
an excess of supply. Other types of chips are not so strongly affected
by the national pride that seems to get wound around DRAM production.
Chips made by Texas Instruments, Motorola, Analog Devices, Lucent,
and others get buried within the tele and data communications infrastucture,
medical equipment, autos, process control equipment, scanners, cash registers,
etc. that have little correlation with the sales of PCs.
Robert
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 10:28:18 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM
<<I may be reading too much into this, BUT it does us well to remember
that the semiconductor chip (as opposed to semiconductor equipment)
market is more than just DRAMs and Intel CPUs. In DRAMs we do have
an excess of supply. Other types of chips are not so strongly affected
by the national pride that seems to get wound around DRAM production.
Chips made by Texas Instruments, Motorola, Analog Devices, Lucent,
and others get buried within the tele and data communications
infrastucture,
medical equipment, autos, process control equipment, scanners, cash
registers, etc. that have little correlation with the sales of PCs.
Robert>>
Good point, Robert. This reportedly is one reason why VTSS has done
so much better than its group, i.e., its tie-in with telecommunications.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 16:50:04 EDT
From: Ssingh@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production
Thanks Frank. Some more info at:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980911/bla.html
In a message dated 9/12/98 1:11:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
Wolynski@MindSpring.Com writes:
<< U.S. August Crude Oil Production Lowest Since 1954-EIA
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Crude oil production in the United States averaged
just 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the lowest level for that
month since 1954, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's preliminary
estimates showed. Low oil prices have made it too expensive in many parts
of the U.S. to continue drilling, while it's cheaper to buy crude from
foreign suppliers.
That trend was in evidence last month, when U.S. imports of crude averaged
9.3 million bpd -- up 700,000 bpd from last year's record high for the
month. The price of crude oil futures trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange has slid 37 percent since Oct. 3, 1997, when the front-month
contract traded at $22.76 a barrel. On Friday, the October crude oil
contract settled at $14.34.
Complete story at:
http://my.excite.com/news/r/980912/07/business-oil
Frank Wolynski >>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 13 Sep 1998 20:43:03 +0200
From: Johan Van Houtven <Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
DB,
Thanks for a nice post.
I looked at the groups you mentioned this weekend. Also looked at all other
groups.
Here are some comments. Mostly just the stocks that had interesting charts.
If you notice that I left important ones out, I'd be grateful if you would
point them out.
>Integrated Systems
JKHY
ORCL beat est. past week
>Mainframes
Is this a DGO group? SUNW (workstations)
>SW Security
>Biomed-Genetics
BGEN, AMGN, HEB (hype).
>Generic Drugs
ALO
>Hospitals
>Medl/Dentl Svcs
>Production/Pipeline
Don't know this group.
>Drug Stores
LDG, DRD
>Whlsle Fds
>The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days:
>
>Drilling
>Field Services
>Machinery/Equipment
>Exploration & Production
>US Integrated
5 groups above: Some stocks already 50% up or more. Makes me sick! ;^)
But all still in downtrends, so might be counter-trend rally. Must all be
watched closely though.
>Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days.
What do you get if you delete AMP & BEI from the group?
Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
- -
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #383
*****************************
To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com"
with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message.
For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
"help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.