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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #377
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
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X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Sunday, September 6 1998 Volume 02 : Number 377
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings
Re: [CANSLIM] Advance & Correction Durations since 1990 Bear
Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings
Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
[CANSLIM] Another satellite conference
Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
[CANSLIM] New Highs
Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
[CANSLIM] Connie/DB
Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
[CANSLIM] Group Strength
Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
[CANSLIM] Audio site
[CANSLIM] Audio site
[CANSLIM] Interest Rate Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Fri, 04 Sep 1998 23:20:07 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings
Using the Market Guide Sectors/Industries, not the IBD, each sector and
Industry Group is ranked daily, (although somewhat sporadically in their
updates when I frequented the site last fall).
http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/RESEARCH/whatshot.html?NETSCAPE_LIVEWIRE.URLK
ey=undefined&NETSCAPE_LIVEWIRE.userchar=undefined
If that link didn't come through try this one and select 'What's Hot' from
the tabs.
http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/
I don't think it is what you are looking for, but the best I can do for
daily rankings.
Best Regards,
Frank Wolynski
At 20:33 9/4/98 -0000, you wrote:
>Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and indicates
>the top performers in each industry?
>
>TIA
>James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA
>http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/
>
>
>
>-
>
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 04:37:39 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Advance & Correction Durations since 1990 Bear
Very cool beans, Craig. This isn't off-topic as far as I'm concerned.
Thanks.
I do believe that this illustrates that you can certainly improve your
returns by "timing the market".
Dan
On Thu, 03 Sep 1998 18:48:20 -0400, you wrote:
:A bit off subject - the bull market run from the July 1990 bear. =
Advances
:and with corrections (-10 to -20% =3D correction, more than -20% =3D =
bear) in a
:table.
:
:Based on a look at the weekly NASDAQ chart. I did not attempt to find
:buy/sell signals. I attempted to find the date for each significant top =
and
:bottom. FWIW, here it is with approximate durations and percent =
gain/loss
:from the valley to peak, then peak to new valley, etc.
:
:Advance/ Start End Approx Peak to Valley
:Decline Date Date Months Percent
:
:Dec 90-07-27 91-01-25 5 mo down -40% Bear Mkt
:Adv 91-01-25 91-06-07 4 mo up +50% =20
:Dec 91-06-07 91-07-05 1 mo down -10% Minor Correction
:Adv 91-07-05 92-02-14 7 mo up +40% =20
:Dec 92-02-14 92-10-09 8 mo down -20% Correction
:Adv 92-10-09 93-02-05 4 mo up +20% =20
:Dec 93-02-05 93-04-30 3 mo down -10% Minor Correction
:Adv 93-04-30 94-03-18 11 mo up +20% =20
:Dec 94-03-18 94-06-24 3 mo down -20% Correction
:Adv 94-06-24 94-10-28 4 mo up +15%
:Dec 94-10-28 94-12-16 2 mo down -7% Minor Correction
:Adv 94-12-16 95-09-15 9 mo up +35%
:Dec 95-09-15 96-01-19 4 mo down -10% Minor Correction
:Adv 96-01-19 96-05-24 4 mo up +30%
:Dec 96-05-24 96-07-26 2 mo down -20% Correction
:Adv 96-07-26 97-01-31 6 mo up +30%
:Dec 97-01-31 97-05-02 3 mo down -15% Correction
:Adv 97-05-02 97-10-10 5 mo up +35%
:Dec 97-10-10 98-01-16 3 mo down -15% Correction
:Adv 98-01-16 98-04-24 3 mo up +20%
:Dec 98-04-24 98-06-19 2 mo down -10% Minor Correction
:Adv 98-06-19 98-07-17 1 mo up +20%
:Dec 98-07-24 98-09-03 1 1/2 mo -25% Bear Mkt (so far? ...)
:
:On 03/30/90, the NASDAQ closed at 328. Today's close was 1574. Thats
:almost 500% in 8 1/2 years.
:
:Best regards,
:Craig
:
:
:-
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 05:18:46 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
On Wed, 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400, you wrote:
:I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all.=20
:( Here or the other haunts I hang out.)=20
:The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday low, but
:today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor.=20
:
:Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet' was
:having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody
:really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately.
:
:Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what he was
:suggesting!
Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only
appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively,
some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on
that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot
going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you
meant by that comment.
To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by
the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday
alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest,
too] didn't either.=20
Dan
:
:Frank Wolynski
:
:
:-
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 1998 23:54:19 -0700 (PDT)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings
Try this one: http://members.aol.com/RANord/
You can download into EXCEL under group reports for the industries and
sort by RS. You can download and correlate the stock lists with the
groups- cream has everything. You have your choice of combos of E/R/G
with the stock lists. He updates weekly after Friday's close
(sometime during the weekend).
TM
- ---James Adams <jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net> wrote:
>
> Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and
indicates
> the top performers in each industry?
>
> TIA
> James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY USA
> http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/
>
>
>
> -
>
>
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 5 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Dan,
I looked at the site Frank recommended:
http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15. I can
see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are
Exxons, BP's etc helped? Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it
seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less. The
drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of
fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does
this all fit together?
Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?
TM
- ---Dan Musicant <musicant@autobahn.org> wrote:
>
> On Wed, 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400, you wrote:
>
> :I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all.
> :( Here or the other haunts I hang out.)
> :The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday
low, but
> :today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor.
> :
> :Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet'
was
> :having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody
> :really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately.
> :
> :Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what
he was
> :suggesting!
>
> Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only
> appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively,
> some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on
> that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot
> going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you
> meant by that comment.
>
> To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by
> the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday
> alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest,
> too] didn't either.
>
> Dan
> :
> :Frank Wolynski
> :
> :
> :-
>
> musicant@autobahn.org
>
> -
>
>
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 5 Sep 1998 00:22:52 -0700 (PDT)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Another satellite conference
WON has been advertising another satellite conference in 17 cities on
Sept. 12. I have the list and numbers if anyone is interested.
TM
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 09:00:36 -0400
From: Scott Vickery <vickery_scott@pop.mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
This gets me started very well.
Thank you.
Scott
At 10:40 PM 9/3/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Scott Vickery wrote:
>>
>> Ok, I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my
>> decision on which charting software to use without trying them all
>> out, so I got the 30 day trial of TC2000.
>>
>> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
>> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM. Or, more
>> likely, an approximation of CASLI?
>>
>
> Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and
>you can fine tune it to meet your needs:
>
> Chart List: All Stocks
> EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C") Value 25 - Max
> Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A") Value 25 - Max
> EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS") Rank 75 - 99
> Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS") Rank 75 - 99
> Sales growth rate Value 15 - Max
> Price as percent of 52 week high Value 85 - Max
> Price per share Value 15 - Max
> Price vs 200 day moving average Value 100 - Max
> Price vs 40 day moving average Value 94 - Max
> Volume surge 5 day Value 150 - Max
>
> Since small stocks have been underperforming, I haven't screened out
>large caps (although the 25% EPS growth minima knocks out most of
>them). But you could do this by limiting capitalization.
>
> With the recent selloff, the 40 day MA culls 77% of stocks, the 150%
>minimum volume surge culls 64% more, and the 15% sales growth minimum
>culls 62% of those. This fairly strict scan produces only 6 stocks
>today: CPWR, EMC, JKHY, KRON, PAYX, and SAI. Try playing around with the
>criteria if you want a longer list--it only takes a couple of seconds to
>run each scan.
>
> I hope this will help you get started.
>
>Al French
>
>-
>
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 5 Sep 1998 11:17:34 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs
Pretty quiet here, so will pass on another evidence of just how
bearish this market is right now.
The list of stocks in the DG books that hit a new high last week only
totalled 29, lowest I can recall ever seeing outside a true bear
market. Of the 29, only the following had both the RS and EPS of 80 or
better:
MDU, CSC, WATR, PSC, UFS, BEI, ARTNA, USCS (forget it, a takeover
already in place), and MATW. Haven't looked at the charts yet to see
if any worth watching. There were several others with EPS in the mid
70s which I will be looking at, including one from my watch list
(TXCC) which I previously mentioned.
Reluctant to even post mention of these after the mkt action on the
last two I mentioned (TMBS, TXCC) and all the discussion that
resulted. Maybe they'll still help a few lurkers.
Tom W
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 13:08:15 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
At 00:18 9/5/98 -0700, you wrote:
>Dan,
>I looked at the site Frank recommended:
>http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15. I can
>see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are
>Exxons, BP's etc helped? Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it
>seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less. The
>drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of
>fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does
>this all fit together?
>
>Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
>airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?
>
>TM
>
>
The 'never had an accident' reminds me of the way the media chooses our
current Stock Guru's. Made a good call 'last week', 'last month', 'last
year'. The other 4,876,531 missed that drop/rally/correction.
"What made you so astute?"
"Well Ron, when I went out to tha bak yard this morn, ole Harley, my pig
was just a squeeling! I asked Florence to see if'n she could member when
Harley had carried on such! She scratched her belly and looked powr'ful
thoughtful and said, Why Oct. of 1987!" I knowed right there and then a
storm was a brewing. I called my cousin Ralph Make-Em-Poorer and said sell
it all!"
I can't answer as to why the Integrated Producers are holding up so well.
Perhaps they pass the costs on and are able to achieve fairly even price
stability and therefore earnings. Just speculating.
However I have learned and it has helped tremendously not to be too
singular in my pursuit of a reason for a particular move. Before you know
it, you are fixing the performance of Airline stocks to the fluctuations in
the price of oil. Although they weigh very heavily, there are other
influences that cannot be discounted.
The interest rate groupies are all chanting 'The market cannot drop any
further, interest rates are too low! Besides Greenspan will lower the
Targets and the market will rally, saving us all!' You only have to look at
Japan to see the case for exceptions!
Thus, oil prices lacking any other influence would be dominating in their
influence, toss in Worldwide instability, political upheaval, terrorism,
bombs, War, impeachment, commodities collapses, seizure of public money by
the government through banks, yadda, yadda,
you have a case for extraordinary influence by seemingly remote and removed
events!
Although I read, study, learn as much as I can in any day, I find the
messages the markets themselves give to be the most compelling.
It is enough that it is moving.
If I ascribe a reason, then when that reason is removed, I anticipate the
market now changes also. This is most often not the case. And is one of the
reasons why we hold on to losing positions! We think, 'but the economy is
good, unemployment low, interest rates low, etc...!
New forces and reasons unfold everyday. It is a dynamic thing and changes
as fast as you can identify it!
I've read that Airlines are also good economic guages by which to see what
investors are feeling about the future economic outlook. If this is true,
the signal is being given that a substantial slowdown is coming.
Best Regards,
Frank Wolynski
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 13:23:03 -0400
From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <Wolynski@MindSpring.Com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
At 05:18 9/5/98 GMT, you wrote:
>
>Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only
>appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively,
>some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on
>that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot
>going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you
>meant by that comment.
>
>To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by
>the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday
>alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest,
>too] didn't either.
>
>Dan
>:
Actually a friend at work thought it to be an ancient chiness curse!
You are correct in your interpretation of my comments.
I really hope some strength is exhibited by our Government in dealing with
some of these issues. They are indeed perturbing and threatening. They also
represent an incredible opportunity for someone to rise to the cause and
get some of this under control. How? I do not know! Who, I can't say either!
When oil was last at this price, Airlines were in an impressive Bull
market. One would have to speculate that Oil was in a reversal and now
trending upward to warrant such bearishness on the Airlines ($TRAN down
- -30%).
I think the problem goes deeper than just last weeks oil prices. I think
the contraction is underway, the slow down is coming, and there is nothing
anyone can do about it. I think the long term investors holding Airline
stocks know this and are cashing out.
When it is generally recognized and espouted on the media, it is pretty
much over. A bottom (or Top) is surely near.
Frank Wolynski
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 13:47:23 -0400
From: Connie Mack Rea <rea1@dp.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Connie/DB
Db--
You dismissed BigChart's Money Flow indicator without knowing its
formula, but you are below asking those on Woodward's site for help to
construct Chaikin's 21-day MF formula:
If it [DB's interpretation of how to construct the formula] isn't
correct, I'll take it off the board and figure it out
with the help of whomever wishes to be kind and
earn points with Santa. (So shoot me. We didn't
have to study this stuff in abnormal psych.)
Db
This excerpt from Woodward's site explains several things:
[1] You still believe in Santa, an explicable but dysfunctional
recrudescence into the nasty reaches of childhood.
[2] You studied neither grammar nor usage. "Whomever" in this context
is an attempt to be hyper-correct when, in fact, the proper relative
pronoun would be "whoever."
[3] Your study of abnormal psych (if indeed one can presume Sigmund did
allow his work to suffer the label), does explain your mock obedience
and petty arrogance toward the less-learned members of Canslim and your
sychopancy toward the much-learned members of Woodward's group.
[4] And we do not have to be oracular to see your harboring of a death
wish: "So shoot me." My pleasure.
Connie
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 18:36:20 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
On Sat, 5 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT), you wrote:
:Dan,=20
:I looked at the site Frank recommended:
:http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=3Dhotsect&REP=3D15. I can
:see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are
:Exxons, BP's etc helped? Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it
:seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less. The
:drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of
:fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does
:this all fit together?
:
:Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
:airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?=20
:
:TM
I'm not too aware of the realities of the oil industry, but I do know
that it has tremendous power and leverage ... far more than most
people can imagine.=20
Exxon is currently at its 200 dma and 4 points under its 50 dma. Why
it rose 3.3% yesterday, I don't know, however it fell from the 50 dma
over the previous 5 sessions or so.=20
The fact of the matter is that people will buy oil products in good
times and bad in this country. However, as you note, they won't drill
for new oil if there is oversupply, and there has been and will be for
some time to come. Companies like Exxon know how to deal with price
fluctuations and can make allowances for them. There's no other way to
explain the steady if gradual upward slope of the 200 dma for XON.
However, the airlines' stocks have consistently reacted strongly in
the opposite direction of the price of oil.
I agree with Frank that the recent sell-off in the transportation
stocks has something more at play than the price of oil, and his
assessment that the economy is contracting and holders of the stocks
see the writing on the wall, seems a not unreasonable assessment.
Dan
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 5 Sep 1998 11:41:06 -0700 (PDT)
From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
None of the groups I follow are at--much less above--their 50d MAs.
However, a considerable number have at least slowed their descents and
may actually be finding bottoms and/or beginning to form bases. The
most dramatic and wide-ranging turnarounds have been in the oil
groups. I anticipated this in July, but had reasons in mind other
than Russia's difficulties. In any event, I'll wait for at least a
retest of the lows.
These are, of course, cyclical, and therefore not CS, depending on how
one interprets Chapter 2, so ignore all this if you want.
- --Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 1998 18:49:34 GMT
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
On Thu, 3 Sep 1998 08:10:11 -0700 , you wrote:
:>>>Or does anyone think that Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume =
constitutes a
:follow through all on its own? <<<
:
:No, I started counting on Tuesday. I'm waiting for the action next =
Tuesday -
:Friday (assuming Monday is a stock market holiday, right?)
Yeah, right. We've had 3 sessions since Tuesday, and each was a down
day, though none an absolute sell-off like Monday. The best thing
about Tuesday was the volume. Greenspan made remarks yesterday that
some interpret as a suggestion that the FED may consider a paring of
interest rates. That could help spark a some up-action.
Dan
musicant@autobahn.org
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 5 Sep 1998 14:09:08 -0700 (PDT)
From: TM <edmalone@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
However I have learned and it has helped tremendously not to be too
> singular in my pursuit of a reason for a particular move. Before you
know
> it, you are fixing the performance of Airline stocks to the
fluctuations in
> the price of oil. Although they weigh very heavily, there are other
> influences that cannot be discounted.
Thank you, Frank. I'm finding many pitfalls on this journey to
becoming a self-styled expert. You'll keep me on the straight and
narrow yet <g>. You are absolutely right, even if a correlation were
to exist between Airlines and Oil prices, it still wouldn't address
cause and effect.
TM
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 5 Sep 1998 17:39:40 -0400
From: DCSquires@mindspring.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Audio site
Hi all,
If you have an audio player this is a great site! They broadcast interviews
with all kinds of investment advisors....to name a few...John Murphy,
Bollinger, Elder and others. If you need an audio player you can get one
free from Microsoft.
http://broadcast.com/shows/tigerinvestment/guest.htm
DCSquires
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 5 Sep 1998 17:39:40 -0400
From: DCSquires@mindspring.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Audio site
Hi all,
If you have an audio player this is a great site! They broadcast interviews
with all kinds of investment advisors....to name a few...John Murphy,
Bollinger, Elder and others. If you need an audio player you can get one
free from Microsoft.
http://broadcast.com/shows/tigerinvestment/guest.htm
DCSquires
- -
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 6 Sep 1998 09:47:28 -0700
From: Bill <wgs@earthlink.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Interest Rate Reduction
Greenspan seems to have indicated that an interest rate reduction is not
ruled out. With that in mind, which US Government debt obligations will be
effected the most?
Will the long term bond rates fall more than the medium or short term rates?
Anyone have a pointer to a site that tracks this data?
Thanks,
Bill-->>
- --------
- -
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #377
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