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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3123
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
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canslim-digest Saturday, January 4 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3123
In this issue:
Re: What is a breakout? - was RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sat, 4 Jan 2003 12:12:27 -0500
From: "Jeff Mulder" <jeff@mulder.com>
Subject: Re: What is a breakout? - was RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
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<< I recall reading that one can take the ADV, divide by 6.5 and come up =
with a guesstimate of the average volume per hour. Then simply multiply =
by the hour to obtain the average volume at that hour. >>
Can always buy the breakout and evaluate volume as the day progresses. =
Should it become obvious by noon/afternoon that volume isn't going to =
achieve whatever multiple the investor wants to see, he/she can close =
the position. =20
- - Jeff
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Rolf Hertenstein=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, January 04, 2003 10:27 AM
Subject: Re: What is a breakout? - was RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again
Somewhere (24 lessons?, Investor's Corner?) I recall reading that one =
can take the ADV, divide by 6.5 and come up with a guesstimate of the =
average volume per hour. Then simply multiply by the hour to obtain the =
average volume at that hour. Example, ADV =3D 100,000. Divide by 6.5 =
(hours market's open during normal trading) to get 15,385. So at 1030 =
eastern time (ET), the 1.5 x ADV rule gives a minimum b/o volume of=20
1 x 15385 x 1.5 =3D 23,077 , at 1130 ET we need volume 2 x 15385 x 1.5 =
=3D 46,155, etc. They're assuming, of course, that volume is linear =
with time, and they mention obvious limitations. And I can't recall =
them giving an estimate of the success rate using this guesstimate.
A problem I've noticed with waiting until day's end is that the stock =
is already extended by then. Seems like many breakouts end the day with =
the stock around 10% higher.
A question on the price panel of your attached chart. Looks like the =
thin red and gray lines are moving averages, but they don't seem to be =
either 50 or 200 DMA. What are they?
Rolf
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Gibbons=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, January 03, 2003 1:00 PM
Subject: What is a breakout? - was RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again
In this case, (link to Katherine's chart =
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/HD1990.JPG) the stock rose above its =
pivot intraday but then fell back to close below it. Does this qualify =
as a breakout at all? There was certainly high volume, but by the end of =
the day, the sellers were winning. If we had the benefit of being able =
to view the intraday price/volume chart, we would be able to know if the =
volume was strong enough at the time the stock passed its pivot price to =
qualify as a breakout, but without that information, I don't think we =
can say with certainty that a breakout occured. Without access to real =
time price/volume information, I believe the only way to confirm a =
breakout is to look at the end of day close and total volume. If it =
didn't close above the pivot on at least 1.5 times average volume, then =
it didn't truly breakout. [Of course, if you do have access to real time =
price/volume then you can make an educated guess intraday as to whether =
or not a true breakout will occur and jump the gun.]
Furthermore, just because the breakout wasn't sustained doesn't mean =
that you should sell it if you bought it intraday. The 7-8% stop-loss =
rule then comes into play. It is possible for the strong volume to come =
in over several days (although such "breakouts" would probably be =
considered suspect). In fact, this occured in the example cited as the =
real breakout took place over several days.
Another subtle point about a stock rising above its pivot and then =
falling back is that the old pivot is now no longer valid because the =
intraday high set a new pivot point. The stock is now forming a new =
handle and the potential buyer should wait a few days to see what =
happens next. A good example of this kind of behaviour occured yesterday =
with DISH.
We sent out an intraday alert for DISH at 11:27 am yesterday, =
because at that time the projected volume exceeded 1.5 times the =
average. In fact the volume did not come through and the stock closed =
below its former pivot, resetting the pivot to yesterday's high and =
starting a new handle.
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Thursday, January 02, 2003 5:16 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again
Hi Rolf,
I think that's the first time I've ever heard the IBD refer to the =
"meat" of the handle...certainly a new one on me. Despite the wording, I =
think it's just a good example of the subtleties of chart reading and =
that one could look at the action in early December that marked the =
beginning of the handle, see the tail, put it in perspective, and =
essentially disregard the high point as an outlier. As a result, the =
point later in the month that the article identifies as the "meaty =
point" or "adjusted pivot" shows the resistance point. Either way, the =
breakout date remains 1/17/91 on strong volume. A more aggressive entry =
might be above $39.73 + .10, a slightly more conservative entry would've =
been above the high of the handle. I'll bet you a SBUX there's not =
another example in an IBD article where the pivot is set at such a =
subtle spot, so I'm not going to lose any sleep over it! See an =
annotated chart at http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/HD1990.JPG
Katherine
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Rolf Hertenstein
Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 12:39 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] pivots again
IBD's Smart Investor for Monday, Dec. 30, talks
about Home Depot (HD) in 1991. They mark a handle
as forming from early December 1990 to mid-January 1991.
They use a intraday high in the first third of the handle as
the $39.73 pivot. For those of you that are good at charts
and have IBD, why is the pivot there and not at about $41
at the intraday high at the beginning (left side) of the handle?
TIA and Happy New Year to all.
Rolf
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><< I recall reading that one can =
take the=20
ADV, divide by 6.5 and come up with a guesstimate of the average volume =
per=20
hour. Then simply multiply by the hour to obtain the average =
volume at=20
that hour. >></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Can always buy the breakout and =
evaluate volume as=20
the day progresses. Should it become obvious by noon/afternoon =
that volume=20
isn't going to achieve whatever multiple the investor wants to see, =
he/she can=20
close the position. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>- Jeff</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Drolfh@mindspring.com =
href=3D"mailto:rolfh@mindspring.com">Rolf=20
Hertenstein</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, January 04, =
2003 10:27=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: What is a =
breakout? - was=20
RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Somewhere (24 lessons?, Investor's =
Corner?) I=20
recall reading that one can take the ADV, divide by 6.5 and come up =
with a=20
guesstimate of the average volume per hour. Then simply multiply =
by the=20
hour to obtain the average volume at that hour. Example, ADV =3D =
100,000. Divide by 6.5 (hours market's open during normal =
trading) to=20
get 15,385. So at 1030 eastern time (ET), the 1.5 x ADV =
rule gives=20
a minimum b/o volume of </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>1 x 15385 x 1.5 =3D 23,077 , at 1130 =
ET we need=20
volume 2 x 15385 x 1.5 =3D 46,155, etc. They're assuming, of =
course, that=20
volume is linear with time, and they mention obvious =
limitations. =20
And I can't recall them giving an estimate of the success rate using =
this=20
guesstimate.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>A problem I've noticed =
with waiting=20
until day's end is that the stock is already extended by then. =
Seems=20
like many breakouts end the day with the stock around 10% =
higher.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>A question on the price panel of your =
attached=20
chart. Looks like the thin red and gray lines are moving =
averages, but=20
they don't seem to be either 50 or 200 DMA. What are =
they?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2> Rolf</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmike@proactech.com =
href=3D"mailto:mike@proactech.com">Mike=20
Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 03, =
2003 1:00=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> What is a breakout? =
- - was RE:=20
[CANSLIM] pivots again</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>In this case, <SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>(link to Katherine's chart <A=20
href=3D"http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/HD1990.JPG"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3>http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/HD1990.JPG</FONT></A>)=20
</FONT></SPAN>the stock rose above its pivot intraday but then =
fell=20
back to close below it. Does this qualify as a breakout at all? =
There was=20
certainly high volume, but by the end of the day, the sellers were =
winning.=20
If we had the benefit of being able to view the intraday =
price/volume chart,=20
we would be able to know if the volume was strong enough at the time =
the=20
stock passed its pivot price to qualify as a breakout, but without =
that=20
information, I don't think we can say with certainty that a breakout =
occured. Without access to real time price/volume information, I =
believe the=20
only way to confirm a breakout is to look at the end of day close =
and total=20
volume. If it didn't close above the pivot on at least 1.5 times =
average=20
volume, then it didn't truly breakout. <SPAN =
class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>[</FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2>Of course,=20
if you do have access to real time price/volume then you can make an =
educated guess intraday as to whether or not a true breakout =
will occur=20
and jump the gun.]</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Furthermore, just because the breakout wasn't sustained =
doesn't mean=20
that you should sell it if you bought it intraday. The 7-8% =
stop-loss rule=20
then comes into play. It is possible for the strong volume to come =
in over=20
several days (although such "breakouts" would probably be considered =
suspect). In fact, this occured in the example cited as the =
real=20
breakout took place over several days.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Another subtle point about a stock rising above its =
pivot and=20
then falling back is that the old pivot is now no longer =
valid=20
because the intraday high set a new pivot point. The stock is now =
forming a=20
new handle and the potential buyer should wait a few days to see =
what=20
happens next. A good example of this kind of behaviour occured =
yesterday=20
with DISH.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>We sent out an intraday alert for DISH at 11:27 am =
yesterday, because=20
at that time the projected volume exceeded 1.5 times the average. In =
fact=20
the volume did not come through and the stock closed below its =
former pivot,=20
resetting the pivot to yesterday's high and starting a new=20
handle.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20
src=3D"cid:005d01c2b414$753cce20$0100007f@AgentMulder" =
align=3Dbaseline=20
border=3D0></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D221400119-03012003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 02, 2003 5:16 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] pivots =
again<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D683040403-03012003>Hi Rolf,</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D683040403-03012003></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D683040403-03012003>I think that's the first =
time I've=20
ever heard the IBD refer to the "meat" of the handle...certainly a =
new one=20
on me. Despite the wording, I think it's just a good example of =
the=20
subtleties of chart reading and that one could look at the action =
in early=20
December that marked the beginning of the handle, see the tail, =
put it in=20
perspective, and essentially disregard the high point as an =
outlier. As a=20
result, the point later in the month that the article identifies =
as the=20
"meaty point" or "adjusted pivot" shows the resistance point. =
Either way,=20
the breakout date remains 1/17/91 on strong volume. A more =
aggressive=20
entry might be above $39.73 + .10, a slightly more conservative =
entry=20
would've been above the high of the handle. I'll bet you a SBUX =
there's=20
not another example in an IBD article where the pivot is set at =
such a=20
subtle spot, so I'm not going to lose any sleep over it! See an =
annotated=20
chart at <A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/HD1990.JPG">http://www.cwhchar=
ts.com/katherine/HD1990.JPG</A></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D683040403-03012003></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D683040403-03012003></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D683040403-03012003>Katherine</SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Rolf=20
Hertenstein<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, January 01, 2003 12:39=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> =
[CANSLIM]=20
pivots again<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>IBD's Smart Investor for =
Monday, Dec. 30,=20
talks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>about Home Depot (HD) in =
1991. They=20
mark a handle</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>as forming from early December =
1990 to=20
mid-January 1991.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>They use a intraday high in the =
first third=20
of the handle as</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>the $39.73 pivot. For =
those of you=20
that are good at charts</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>and have IBD, why is the pivot =
there and=20
not at about $41</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>at the intraday high at the =
beginning (left=20
side) of the handle?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>TIA and Happy New Year to =
all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
=
size=3D2> Rolf</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></=
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