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Date: Thu, 21 Nov 2002 14:02:48 -0800 (PST)
From: Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
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I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
Eric
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:Katherine,I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.Thanks----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian, Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well." I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian
Eric JaenikePresidentVector Investment Management303-300-2961
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<P>I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
<P>Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
<P>I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
<P>It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
<P>Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
<P>As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
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Date: Thu, 21 Nov 2002 15:39:09 -0800
From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
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Hi Eric:
Your list illustrates my confusion. One of the things that makes today unusual is the behaviour of the recent winners. 7 of the 9 isues in your list seriously underperformed the indices today (ATRS and PIXR both followed 'M", up 4%+ each). What does it mean when the emerging leaders of the first 6 weeks of the bull suddenly weaken, while the indices surge? Is there a precendence for this? Does WON have an opinion on it?
Shouldn't the newly emerging winners consistently have been powering ahead 5%+ today?
Thanks,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Eric Jaenike
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
Eric
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:
Katherine,
I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.
Thanks
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian,
Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
