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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #280 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, June 13 1998 Volume 02 : Number 280 In this issue: [CANSLIM] "Wants" [CANSLIM] Archives address Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Walter Stock Re: [CANSLIM] Reading the market by charts and by the number of CS posts. [Connie] [CANSLIM] School Project (non-canslim) Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W DO NOT READ RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Witching (was AMZN - Johan "L") RE: [CANSLIM] Polotics 101 Re: [CANSLIM] Archives address [CANSLIM] CANSLIM.NET Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM.NET [CANSLIM] DJIA and Trendlines [CANSLIM] Group Strength ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 12:28:06 -0400 From: Jeffry White <postwhit@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "Wants" > I, for one, would like to just get to 1700 and 8300 and get on with > it. The water-torture type of correction is a real bummer. > > - --Db > Think we can get there in one day? As they say, "careful what you [want] for, you might get it". Kinda ugly out there this morning, huh? Must be some of that Asia "noise", or sumpin'. ;-o Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 11:26:35 -0500 From: "Dr Jim and JoEllen Kiser" <toothdr1@COMMUNIQUE.NET> Subject: [CANSLIM] Archives address Would someone please send me the address of the canslim archives. I've lost it and need to get the last several digests from the archives. My puter was upgraded and I lost some data including this address. TIA - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 12:48:29 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea <rea1@dp.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Walter Stock <HTML> Afternoon Walter-- Good to have a Canadian around. Used to go to The Candian Open tennis tournaments every year. Write anytime if you've questions. You're sitting pretty in cash. Sit tight. Connie Mack Walter Stock wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>Hello from Canada, Canslim people. I would like to introduce myself to your group, and being at 100% cash right now, I no longer have an excuse to delay delurking. (Have been snooping since Oct 97.) Age: 42 Education: B.A. in "non-M noise" ;^) (a.k.a. Economics) Career: over a decade in banking (Systems division) at CIBC head office in Toronto. New Career: Mr Mom. I trade during the day while my little boy is in pre-school, and I look after him the rest of the time . Am an experienced trader and investor in Canadian markets, but am relatively new at investing in the US and overseas. I follow HTMMIS, which I keep re-reading, and also follow WON-related material such as Woodward (HGS), Ryan, and others. I complement this religiously with TA, especially MACD, SloSto, and MF, along with the usual suspects: trendlines and MA's. Huge thanks to Dbphoenix (esp. for sites and investment opinion) ...to Tom Worley (for info on how brokers work and for a big heart) ...to Connie Mack (for revealing so much about his system) ...to Jeffry (for XXX-rated hard-core "M" analysis) ...to Frank Wolynski, Tim, Peter, Johan, and many others, you have all helped. Intro is already too long, I will start inflicting my ursine opinions shortly. Walter Stock (yes... that really is my last name) Oakville, ONT - Canada E-mail me at wstock@globalserve.net -</BLOCKQUOTE> </HTML> - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 09:25:21 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reading the market by charts and by the number of CS posts. [Connie] <<You can see that yesterday's close was near enough to say that the Dow held on the trendline.>> At first I was confused by your use of the word "low" when you were using closing prices. If the lows had been connected beginning with your starting point, there would have been four confirmations and a violation of the trend on 4/27 (last point is 4/13 for anyone who wants to try this at home). - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 12:55:20 -0400 From: "Robert Miller" <robmiller@trellis.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] School Project (non-canslim) Members: I am doing a research project for an investments class. Does anyone know where I can get historical (split adjusted) stock prices dating as far back as 1960. Thanks, Rob - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 10:28:40 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" <pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W DO NOT READ > Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 07:24:24 -0700 (PDT) > To: <canslim@mail.xmission.com> > From: Tim Fisher <tim@OreRockOn.com> > Just to annoy everyone except for Tom, here's the "real-time" Yahoo market > index quotes at 07:25 AM Pacific Time: > > ^DJI 9:47AM 8811.27 -0.50 > ^IXIC Jun 11 1743.12 -6.63 > ^NYA 9:47AM 565.54 +0.04 > ^RUT 9:47AM 443.41 -0.94 > ^SPX 9:47AM 1094.78 +0.20 I just checked at 10:24 am Pacific, and the S&P (^SPX), for one, was right on the nose with the cash quote I get via Signal. If you have visited Yahoo once already this morning, you may have to hit Reload to refresh the page. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 10:39:19 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" <davidson@silk.net> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Witching (was AMZN - Johan "L") Excellent explanation!! Almost missed this question because of the misleading subj line, but I'll jump in since don't see any other answer to the question. Triple witching occurs late in each quarter. It is the date in which trading ends on all expiring equity, index and Treasury/interest rate options. These options actually expire on the Saturday following the third Friday of the month, while actual trading ceases on the third Friday of the month. In March, June, Sept, and Dec, all three option groups expire together, leading to greater volatility in the mkt as traders square their positions in both the options and the underlying product. Some years ago, this excessive "options related" volatility was limited mostly to the Friday expiration. But over time, more and more "money manager" types wanted to escape this unpredictable action, and began adjusting their holdings on Thursday, then when that became volatile, to Wednesday, etc. Now, you can expect some "options related" volatility during the full week preceding any major options expiration. And naturally this effect will be exaggerated during the week of "triple witching". In fact, this volatility has now been so spread out that the Friday of triple witching has often been rather boring. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: David Reid <dlreid@bellsouth.net> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Date: Thursday, June 11, 1998 7:32 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN - Johan "L" >Would somebody please tell me what triple witching is ? I have heard reference >to this term several times in the last couple of days. >And please excuse my ignorance. > >David > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 10:39:20 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" <davidson@silk.net> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Polotics 101 This is hilarious I must say!! Phil-- Glad your family is a-polotic. I.e., you sleep in your own bed. A little boy goes to his dad and asks, "What is politics?" > > Dad says, "Well son, let me try to explain it this way: I'm the > breadwinner of the family, so let's call me Capitalism. Your Mom, > she's the administrator of the money, so we'll call her the > Government. We're here to take care of your needs, so we'll call you > the People. The nanny, we'll consider her the Working Class. And your > baby brother, we'll call him the Future. Now, think about that and > see if that makes sense." > > So the little boy goes off to bed thinking about what Dad has said. > > Later that night, he hears his baby brother crying, so he gets up to > check on him. He finds that the baby has severely soiled his diaper > so the little boy goes to his parents' room and finds his mother sound > asleep. Not wanting to wake her, he goes to the nanny's room. Finding > the door locked, he peeks in the keyhole and sees his father in bed > with the nanny. He gives up and goes back to bed. > > The next morning, the little boy says to his father, "Dad, I think I > understand the concept of politics now." > > The father says, "Good, son. Tell me in your own words what you > think politics is all about." > > The little boy replies, "Well, while Capitalism is screwing the > Working Class, the Government is sound asleep, the People are being > ignored and the Future is in deep doodoo." C - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 10:49:49 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Archives address The site is as follows: http://www.xmission.com/pub/ Don't forget you may need to hit "previous directory" to reach the CS file. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 13:44:33 -0400 From: "Voelker, David" <David.Voelker@fmr.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM.NET I have posted a thread to the CANSLIM.NET chat board about this very topic. I received a cold-call from a brokerage house a few weeks ago trying to get me to commit to a position in RUSH over the phone, using them as the broker, of course. I have not received a response from CANSLIM.NET about whether they are selling my information or not, but I presume that they are. Another poster to the chat board has indicated that I may be jumping the gun and that I should be more open to such "services'. IMHO, CANSLIM.NET is doing a great disservice to their visitors if they give the impression that it is an acceptable practice to buy stocks based on a 2-minute cold call. caveat emptor. __________________________________________________ Dave Voelker <<I received a call from someone at canslim .net today.They apparently are trying some kind of brokerage or newsletter service or some sorts. Anybody in the group know anything about this. I do recall a recent post to this group about it becoming a pump and dump or some sort of name. just curious David>> - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 11:28:31 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM.NET Thanks for the post, Dave. FWIW, even the sites that require you to register have no way of verifying your name, address or telephone number. Since I'm often forced to register for sites I may never return to once I've explored them, I've always given a fake name, address and phone number (though the phone number is usually optional anyway). I can't think of any reason why they'd want all this anyway except to sell it, as it provides no demographic info at all other than my city's and state's location. If all this sounds paranoid, it's because sales calls are now at an all-time low due to a great deal of care on my part to give away nothing that I don't absolutely have to. Haven't given away my phone number to a merchant for years. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 12:42:05 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] DJIA and Trendlines I find it very difficult to talk about support, resistance, and trendlines without something to look at. Therefore, anyone who's interested may go to our archive site and look at a graph I put together to show what I've been following > ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/DJIA-WK.gif First, when I say "trendline", I'm referring to an ascending or descending trendline. Even though some people use "trendline" to describe a sideways movement (and in technical analysis, correctly so), I find it confusing, since "trend" implies going somewhere, as in up or down. A sideways movement is essentially "trendless" (which is why we refer to stocks as "trending" or "oscillating"). Therefore, a horizontal line of any sort will be referred to not as a trendline but as support or resistance, whether it's a price point representing a previous peak or trough, or a base of no minimum length (ascending and descending trendlines should provide support and resistance as well, of course, which is why it helps to have something to look at). This is a weekly chart (with a daily chart, once you've backed off enough, the line becomes virtually solid). The yellow line is a 10-week EMA (or 50-day) and the green is a 40-week (200-day). The two red lines are trendlines of varying lengths. A trendline, in order to be valid, should meet at least two and preferably three or more points--the more the better. It should not cross through any points. If it does, you're probably drawing it wrong (if your line meets ten points except for a one-day downdraft, you're probably cool; if you're not sure, just hold it at arm's length and squint--does it follow the trend or not?). The longer line here looks as though it was drawn to pass through the drop in late October '97. However, at the time the line was drawn, October hadn't happened yet. The line is a projection based on the two points from July '96 and August '97. The October '97 fall through the line represents a violation of the line. Ditto with the January '98 drop. Which is why a new, shorter-term line--which may be useless at it meets only two points--is drawn using October '97 and January '98. Neither of these lines has more than two points--yet. One could jiggle the longer-term line and call January '98 a third point (which I prefer to do), but this is fudging, even if it's slight, so it's still tentative (one could also use closing prices instead, but there would be even more violations of the line than by using lows--the dotted red line). They do, however, track the 40w EMA, so they're not too far off. There are an infinite number of trendlines one can draw depending on whether his timeframe is years or minutes. But since CSers are usually intermediate-term investors, these are the trendlines chosen. As to the starting points, these are chosen because they represent the beginning of whatever leg is being graphed, and the leg one chooses depends on one's timeframe. For example, if you're a long-term investor, you'd probably go back to the end of '94 for the beginning of your leg (this intersects the graph at present at around 7000). But the slope changes slightly in July '96, and a shorter-term trendline becomes possible. The slope seems to change again in April '97, but then the market drifts pretty much sideways for half the year and meets up with the trendline again (note that when it does, it takes off). The even shorter-term line was drawn to reflect yet another change in the slope, but, as we're finding out, this may be unsustainable (one could, of course, draw ever-shorter trendlines, but this would have the same effect as having ever-tighter stops--sooner rather than later your line must be violated or your stop tripped; if you're that nervous, you're probably focused on a timeframe that's inconsistent with your risk-tolerance). Next to horizontal support and resistance. Note: in the process of copying and pasting and reconfiguring from .bmp to .gif, the lines have changed by a hair. Don't obsess on fractions of a point. Look at the forest. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 11:41:44 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix <dbphoenix@yahoo.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Going through the group charts, I couldn't find much to get excited about, so I plotted relative strength lines. The most promising looked to be the following: Financial - Misc. Svcs. Drugs - Diversified Drugs - Ethical Retail - Department Stores Comments from anyone who follows groups welcome. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #280 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.