ftp.xmission.com/2014.06.ftp.xmission.com.tar/ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/archive/v02.n2130

Internet Message Format | 2002-02-16 | 53KB

From: [e-mail] (canslim-digest)
To: [e-mail]
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2130
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: [e-mail]
Errors-To: [e-mail]
Precedence: bulk
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-No-Archive: yes

canslim-digest       Sunday, February 17 2002       Volume 02 : Number 2130



In this issue:

       AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
       [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.
       RE: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.
       Re: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.
       AW: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.
       Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 13:37:45 +0100
From: Andreas Himmelreich <[e-mail]>
Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates

Dan,

how do you filter then, with software automated or with by hand?
Which software do you use?

Thank you !!!

Andreas Himmelreich

> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----
> Von:    Dan Forant [SMTP:[e-mail]]
> Gesendet am:    Sunday, February 17, 2002 12:28 AM
> An:    [e-mail]
> Betreff:    Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>=20
> Gregory Morris is President of G.Morris Corporation, an =
investment/software
> consulting firm headquartered in Dallas, Texas. He arguably wrote the =
best
> book on candlestick charting,"Candlestick Charting Explained". A book =
about
> 300 easy to read pages with plenty of charting examples. The =
simplicity and
> clarity of reading charts is far superior to Western style charts. =
Also if
> you learn 1-3 day stick patterns you will no doubt increase your =
chances of
> success with any trading system. Japanese Candlesticks have been used =
for
> hundreds of years.
>=20
> He highlights a system called "Candlestick Filtering". A short term =
system
> that doesn't glue one to a monitor. It's very successful. I use it and =
have
> more confidence in trading.
>=20
> As for CANSLIM, candles can give excellent signals that a handle is =
about to
> breakout, or not days before.
>=20
> The book store price is $37.50, far less online.
>=20
> L8ter
> DanF
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Quan Tran" <[e-mail]>
> To: <[e-mail]>
> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 2:01 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates
>=20
>=20
> > Dan,
> >
> > Who's Gregory Morris?  Do you have an URL?
> >
> >
> > --- Dan Forant <[e-mail]> wrote:
> > > Andreas,
> > >
> > > I understand your point now concerning shorting. There also have =
been
> stocks
> > > as you mentioned  worth going long for. Everyone has to adjust a =
method
> to
> > > their liking. It's important to get into a market at it's earliest =
move
> > > upward, but one must be very careful. It's volatile down there. =
Tom's
> has
> > > years of well earned experience and plays his method well. CANSLIM =
works
> > > well in a bull market. I'm not so sure we're headed there yet. =
Till then
> > > I'll use candlesticks and Gregory Morris's filtering system.
> > >
> > > L8ter
> > > DanF
> >
> >
> > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
> > Quan Tran
> > [e-mail]
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Yahoo! Sports - Coverage of the 2002 Olympic Games
> > http://sports.yahoo.com
> >
> > -
> > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> > -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
> >
>=20
>=20
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 08:29:38 -0500
From: "Gary A. Snyder" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.

I am fascinated by industry group movement but can't figure out what move
groups up and down. For example: EPIQ is for sure a fine investment and I
have owned it but the last big move it made from about 13 to 25 the industry
group moved from at least the lower B group to 30-32. If the industry group
had not moved EPIQ would still be building a base. In the same group BARZ
went from 35 to 55, ADVS 29 to 51, FIC 39 to 63, BSYS 44 to 63. Even thought
these companies offer completely different software to the financial
industry. A few months ago IBD used GNSS, a semi manufacture, as an example
of a successful cup and handle but failed the mention that the industry
group started up from a e rating and worked its way up to at least the mid b
rating, against WON rule look in the top sixty groups.  Not just GNSS, all
the semi manufacturing stocks were going up even if they were over bought by
as much as 50%. You may think that you are picking good companies and you
are but they are not going anywhere until the industrial group is going up.
So what moves these industry groups? Some are easy to figure: defense
stocks- government spending to increase dramatically per purposed budget.
Safety and security- the terrorist effect. Any computer group a month ago- I
don't have a clue. You don't want to know how poorly some of these security
companies were rated when they started moving up and they are not
fundamentally good companies but that doesn't matter if the market perceives
future growth. Some of these security companies have very poor fundamentals
but that does not stop them from going through the roof if the industry
group is on the rise. The rating on some of these companies look great
now(after the fact). Lower oil prices helped the success of
transportation/trucking even in a bad economy but if the price of oil goes
up for any of a number of reasons, number one being Iraq targeted as the
next enemy on the war on terrorism transportation/trucking will go down so
fast only bested by oil&gas/any company with proved oil reserves going up.
You don't have to pick the best company in the group. Throw a dart at any
company on the list for success. Home builders: low interest rates,
increased new home sales, increased building permits but let the interest
rates go up a little and home builders start correcting along with home
mortgage businesses and banks living on refinancing income. In fact let an
influential analysis say interest rates have bottomed and all these groups
start down no proof needed.Good companies along with bad. I'm confused and
bloodied but feel one key is tracking industry groups. I ask for comment
and/or instruction. gas175k



_________________________________________________________________
MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos:
http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 08:08:34 -0600
From: "Fred Richards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.

For many years, I have disagreed with WON on whether industry group ratings
are important.

I believe that before any industry group moves become significant, there are
one or two companies in that group that make significant moves and then the
others follow along albeit often not as spectacularly.

The trick to real profits is not to be a lemming like the group industry
players but to be the pied piper that finds those one or two companies that
lead the charge.



- -----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail]
[mailto:[e-mail]]On Behalf Of Gary A. Snyder
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 7:30 AM
To: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.






I am fascinated by industry group movement but can't figure out what move
groups up and down. For example: EPIQ is for sure a fine investment and I
have owned it but the last big move it made from about 13 to 25 the industry
group moved from at least the lower B group to 30-32. If the industry group
had not moved EPIQ would still be building a base. In the same group BARZ
went from 35 to 55, ADVS 29 to 51, FIC 39 to 63, BSYS 44 to 63. Even thought
these companies offer completely different software to the financial
industry. A few months ago IBD used GNSS, a semi manufacture, as an example
of a successful cup and handle but failed the mention that the industry
group started up from a e rating and worked its way up to at least the mid b
rating, against WON rule look in the top sixty groups.  Not just GNSS, all
the semi manufacturing stocks were going up even if they were over bought by
as much as 50%. You may think that you are picking good companies and you
are but they are not going anywhere until the industrial group is going up.
So what moves these industry groups? Some are easy to figure: defense
stocks- government spending to increase dramatically per purposed budget.
Safety and security- the terrorist effect. Any computer group a month ago- I
don't have a clue. You don't want to know how poorly some of these security
companies were rated when they started moving up and they are not
fundamentally good companies but that doesn't matter if the market perceives
future growth. Some of these security companies have very poor fundamentals
but that does not stop them from going through the roof if the industry
group is on the rise. The rating on some of these companies look great
now(after the fact). Lower oil prices helped the success of
transportation/trucking even in a bad economy but if the price of oil goes
up for any of a number of reasons, number one being Iraq targeted as the
next enemy on the war on terrorism transportation/trucking will go down so
fast only bested by oil&gas/any company with proved oil reserves going up.
You don't have to pick the best company in the group. Throw a dart at any
company on the list for success. Home builders: low interest rates,
increased new home sales, increased building permits but let the interest
rates go up a little and home builders start correcting along with home
mortgage businesses and banks living on refinancing income. In fact let an
influential analysis say interest rates have bottomed and all these groups
start down no proof needed.Good companies along with bad. I'm confused and
bloodied but feel one key is tracking industry groups. I ask for comment
and/or instruction. gas175k



_________________________________________________________________
MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos:
http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 08:48:50 -0600
From: "Katherine Malm" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

- ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1B78F.EB7F9D60
Content-Type: text/plain;
    charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Hi Gary,

In my mind there are a few things that are most important when looking =
at industry groups:

(1) The strong stocks in the group move first and break down last. =
That's one of the reasons WON always says to identify the strongest =
stock in the group and stay away from the laggards.
(2) Sometimes the group that the stock is in does not necessarily "fit" =
and the competitors for the stock showing strength will actually be =
spread around in other groups. During due diligence, determining the =
*real* competitors is thus a key step. [I call stocks that show strength =
independent of the industry group strength as "distracting fish." =
There's something going on, but until you pay attention to the fish, you =
don't know why it's jumping around, seemingly all alone. Once you figure =
out that the business actually competes against similar fish that are =
swimming in other schools, it makes more sense.]
(3) It is more important to find strong stocks in *rising* industries =
instead of *top* industries. When the market is choppy and full of =
rotation, it allows you to spot strength early, find the strongest =
players, and ride them while the group is strong. When the market is in =
strong bull mode, the groups that you rode to the top will *stay* at the =
top for a long time instead of breaking down and you are more likely to =
have a "big winner" on your hand because you caught it early in the =
stock's *and* the industry's move.
(4) Once in a position that you find via strong stock and/or strong =
industry movement, the end of day review on the stock for sell rules =
should include not only the stock but also the stocks in the same group. =
If you are in the strongest stock, you have a bit of time while the =
laggards that went along for the group ride roll over before your strong =
stock takes the dive. This is also very useful when buying a stock =
coming out of a base. If the stock has consolidated and looks like it is =
going to breakout (an sometimes *does*), but the rest of the group has =
topped out and broken down....you know that the odds of the breakout =
succeeding will be slim.

I think this issue of *rising* industry strength rather than *top* =
industry strength is a key point that WON makes, but gets lost in the =
noise. I have always felt that the articles in the IBD mislead the =
CANSLIM investor and encourage them to simply look in the top few groups =
when filtering for stock candidates. Just in the last couple of weeks, =
however, I noticed that one of the Investor's Corners did actually =
acknowledge that "rapidly rising" groups were also a place one should be =
looking. Again, a subtle point, but easily lost in the article if the =
reader had been led to believe that *top* industries were the place to =
be.

Another issue that I have with IBD is that the industry rankings are =
based on 6 months with the 3 most recent months more heavily weighted. =
That's all well and good when the market is in a strong uptrend lasting =
for many years, but the ratings are laggard when the market is choppy, =
is in the midst of contra bear rallies, or is in a long sideways mode. =
In this case, the industries rotate more quickly and if one wants to =
ride them, they need tools to identify rising industries more quickly =
than the IBD rankings. I actually discovered this by accident many years =
ago when I became frustrated with trying to track industry movement by =
highlighting and placing little arrows in the paper's industry chart. I =
couldn't get a "picture" of the movement. Also, until recently, in order =
to identify the stocks in an industry, you had to look in the =
industry/ticker book sold by the IBD and updated a few times a year. =
What a pain. I started using software (VectorVest) in early '98 which =
allowed me to drill down on an industry, track industry movement and =
build my own time-sensitive indicators and/or competitor "groups" if I =
preferred. Other software is now available to do similar things (such as =
HGS and QP2) but I am less familiar with them. The new beta version of =
DGO has an industry component, but I believe the tools, while better =
than what's been there, are still not as powerful as other software =
tools out there.

One of the powerful components of CANSLIM is its insistence on technical =
indicators to tell you what's "really going on" with a stock. I believe =
the same is true of industry movement. If the investor has a technique =
that looks for industry *and* stock movement based on technical =
indicators, they lead your attention to particular stocks. Once your =
attention is on them, it is often easier to understand *why* the =
group/stock is moving. For example, if technical analysis shows that =
homebuilders are suddenly becoming hot in early 2000, during due =
diligence the investor would be able to deduce that the movement is lead =
not only by a group showing strong fundamentals, but one that is likely =
to benefit from the Fed's easing mode. Another way of approaching this =
would be to have a constantly refreshed list of "macrothemes" at the =
ready. Once the industry/stock analysis begins to show technical =
strength, it is easy to quickly spot the "why" of the movement because =
it is fulfilling a macrotheme. On the sell side, technical breaks rule =
the roost for the same reason. If a stock is technically breaking down, =
the fundamental and macrotheme reasons for the slide do not become =
apparent until later because the "why's" are often explained in lagging =
fundamental/financial reporting.

Katherine
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Gary A. Snyder=20
  To: [e-mail]=20
  Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 7:29 AM
  Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.






  I am fascinated by industry group movement but can't figure out what =
move=20
  groups up and down. For example: EPIQ is for sure a fine investment =
and I=20
  have owned it but the last big move it made from about 13 to 25 the =
industry=20
  group moved from at least the lower B group to 30-32. If the industry =
group=20
  had not moved EPIQ would still be building a base. In the same group =
BARZ=20
  went from 35 to 55, ADVS 29 to 51, FIC 39 to 63, BSYS 44 to 63. Even =
thought=20
  these companies offer completely different software to the financial=20
  industry. A few months ago IBD used GNSS, a semi manufacture, as an =
example=20
  of a successful cup and handle but failed the mention that the =
industry=20
  group started up from a e rating and worked its way up to at least the =
mid b=20
  rating, against WON rule look in the top sixty groups.  Not just GNSS, =
all=20
  the semi manufacturing stocks were going up even if they were over =
bought by=20
  as much as 50%. You may think that you are picking good companies and =
you=20
  are but they are not going anywhere until the industrial group is =
going up.=20
  So what moves these industry groups? Some are easy to figure: defense=20
  stocks- government spending to increase dramatically per purposed =
budget.=20
  Safety and security- the terrorist effect. Any computer group a month =
ago- I=20
  don't have a clue. You don't want to know how poorly some of these =
security=20
  companies were rated when they started moving up and they are not=20
  fundamentally good companies but that doesn't matter if the market =
perceives=20
  future growth. Some of these security companies have very poor =
fundamentals=20
  but that does not stop them from going through the roof if the =
industry=20
  group is on the rise. The rating on some of these companies look great =

  now(after the fact). Lower oil prices helped the success of=20
  transportation/trucking even in a bad economy but if the price of oil =
goes=20
  up for any of a number of reasons, number one being Iraq targeted as =
the=20
  next enemy on the war on terrorism transportation/trucking will go =
down so=20
  fast only bested by oil&gas/any company with proved oil reserves going =
up.=20
  You don't have to pick the best company in the group. Throw a dart at =
any=20
  company on the list for success. Home builders: low interest rates,=20
  increased new home sales, increased building permits but let the =
interest=20
  rates go up a little and home builders start correcting along with =
home=20
  mortgage businesses and banks living on refinancing income. In fact =
let an=20
  influential analysis say interest rates have bottomed and all these =
groups=20
  start down no proof needed.Good companies along with bad. I'm confused =
and=20
  bloodied but feel one key is tracking industry groups. I ask for =
comment=20
  and/or instruction. gas175k



  _________________________________________________________________
  MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos:=20
  http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx


  -
  -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
  -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
  -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

- ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1B78F.EB7F9D60
Content-Type: text/html;
    charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4807.2300" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi Gary,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In my mind there are a few things that are most important =
when=20
looking at industry groups:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>(1) The strong stocks in the group move first and break down last. =
That's=20
one of the reasons WON always says to identify the strongest stock in =
the group=20
and stay away from the laggards.</DIV>
<DIV>(2) Sometimes the group that the stock is in does not necessarily =
"fit" and=20
the competitors for the stock showing strength will actually be spread =
around in=20
other groups. During due diligence, determining the *real* competitors =
is thus a=20
key step. [I call stocks that show strength independent of the industry =
group=20
strength as "distracting fish." There's something going on, but until =
you pay=20
attention to the fish, you don't know why it's jumping around, seemingly =
all=20
alone. Once you figure out that the business actually competes against =
similar=20
fish that are swimming in other schools, it makes more sense.]</DIV>
<DIV>(3) It is more important to find strong stocks in *rising* =
industries=20
instead of *top* industries. When the market is choppy and full of =
rotation, it=20
allows you to spot strength early, find the strongest players, and ride =
them=20
while the group is strong. When the market is in strong bull mode, the =
groups=20
that you rode to the top will *stay* at the top for a long time instead =
of=20
breaking down and you are more likely to have a "big winner" on your =
hand=20
because you caught it early in the stock's *and* the industry's =
move.</DIV>
<DIV>(4) Once in a position that you find via strong stock and/or strong =

industry movement, the end of day review on the stock for sell rules =
should=20
include not only the stock but also the stocks in the same group. If you =
are in=20
the strongest stock, you have a bit of time while the laggards that went =
along=20
for the group ride roll over before your strong stock takes the dive. =
This is=20
also very useful when buying a stock coming out of a base. If the =
stock has=20
consolidated and looks like it is going to breakout (an sometimes =
*does*), but=20
the rest of the group has topped out and broken down....you know that =
the odds=20
of the breakout succeeding will be slim.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I think this issue of *rising* industry strength rather than *top* =
industry=20
strength is a key point that WON makes, but gets lost in the noise. I =
have=20
always felt that the articles in the IBD mislead the CANSLIM investor =
and=20
encourage them to simply look in the top few groups when filtering for =
stock=20
candidates. Just in the last couple of weeks, however, I noticed that =
one of the=20
Investor's Corners did actually acknowledge that "rapidly rising" =
groups=20
were also a place one should be looking. Again, a subtle point, but =
easily lost=20
in the article if the reader had been led to believe that *top* =
industries were=20
the place to be.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Another issue that I have with IBD is that the industry rankings =
are based=20
on 6 months with the 3 most recent months more heavily weighted. That's =
all well=20
and good when the market is in a strong uptrend lasting for many years, =
but the=20
ratings are laggard when the market is choppy, is in the midst of contra =
bear=20
rallies, or is in a long sideways mode. In this case, the industries =
rotate more=20
quickly and if one wants to ride them, they need tools to identify =
rising=20
industries more quickly than the IBD rankings. I actually discovered =
this by=20
accident many years ago when I became frustrated with trying to track =
industry=20
movement by highlighting and placing little arrows in the paper's =
industry=20
chart. I couldn't get a "picture" of the movement. Also, until recently, =
in=20
order to identify the stocks in an industry, you had to look in the=20
industry/ticker book sold by the IBD and updated a few times a year. =
What a=20
pain. I started using software (VectorVest) in early '98 which allowed =
me to=20
drill down on an industry, track industry movement and build my own=20
time-sensitive indicators and/or competitor "groups" if I preferred. =
Other=20
software is now available to do similar things (such as HGS and QP2) but =
I am=20
less familiar with them. The new beta version of DGO has an industry =
component,=20
but I believe the tools, while better than what's been there, are still =
not as=20
powerful as other software tools out there.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>One of the powerful components of CANSLIM is its insistence on =
technical=20
indicators to tell you what's "really going on" with a stock. I believe =
the same=20
is true of industry movement. If the investor has a technique that looks =
for=20
industry *and* stock movement based on technical indicators, they lead =
your=20
attention to particular stocks. Once your attention is on them, it is =
often=20
easier to understand *why* the group/stock is moving. For example, if =
technical=20
analysis shows that homebuilders are suddenly becoming hot in early =
2000, during=20
due diligence the investor would be able to deduce that the movement is =
lead not=20
only by a group showing strong fundamentals, but one that is likely to =
benefit=20
from the Fed's easing mode. Another way of approaching this would be to =
have a=20
constantly refreshed list of "macrothemes" at the ready. Once the=20
industry/stock analysis begins to show technical strength, it is easy to =
quickly=20
spot the "why" of the movement because it is fulfilling a macrotheme. On =
the=20
sell side, technical breaks rule the roost for the same reason. If a =
stock is=20
technically breaking down, the fundamental and macrotheme reasons for =
the slide=20
do not become apparent until later because the "why's" are often =
explained in=20
lagging fundamental/financial reporting.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=[e-mail] =
href=3D"mailto:[e-mail]">Gary A.=20
  Snyder</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=[e-mail]=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:[e-mail]">[e-mail]</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 17, 2002 =
7:29=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Industry =
group=20
  movements.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV><BR><BR><BR><BR>I am fascinated by industry group =
movement but=20
  can't figure out what move <BR>groups up and down. For example: EPIQ =
is for=20
  sure a fine investment and I <BR>have owned it but the last big move =
it made=20
  from about 13 to 25 the industry <BR>group moved from at least the =
lower B=20
  group to 30-32. If the industry group <BR>had not moved EPIQ would =
still be=20
  building a base. In the same group BARZ <BR>went from 35 to 55, ADVS =
29 to 51,=20
  FIC 39 to 63, BSYS 44 to 63. Even thought <BR>these companies offer =
completely=20
  different software to the financial <BR>industry. A few months ago IBD =
used=20
  GNSS, a semi manufacture, as an example <BR>of a successful cup and =
handle but=20
  failed the mention that the industry <BR>group started up from a e =
rating and=20
  worked its way up to at least the mid b <BR>rating, against WON rule =
look in=20
  the top sixty groups.  Not just GNSS, all <BR>the semi =
manufacturing=20
  stocks were going up even if they were over bought by <BR>as much as =
50%. You=20
  may think that you are picking good companies and you <BR>are but they =
are not=20
  going anywhere until the industrial group is going up. <BR>So what =
moves these=20
  industry groups? Some are easy to figure: defense <BR>stocks- =
government=20
  spending to increase dramatically per purposed budget. <BR>Safety and=20
  security- the terrorist effect. Any computer group a month ago- I =
<BR>don't=20
  have a clue. You don't want to know how poorly some of these security=20
  <BR>companies were rated when they started moving up and they are not=20
  <BR>fundamentally good companies but that doesn't matter if the market =

  perceives <BR>future growth. Some of these security companies have =
very poor=20
  fundamentals <BR>but that does not stop them from going through the =
roof if=20
  the industry <BR>group is on the rise. The rating on some of these =
companies=20
  look great <BR>now(after the fact). Lower oil prices helped the =
success of=20
  <BR>transportation/trucking even in a bad economy but if the price of =
oil goes=20
  <BR>up for any of a number of reasons, number one being Iraq targeted =
as the=20
  <BR>next enemy on the war on terrorism transportation/trucking will go =
down so=20
  <BR>fast only bested by oil&gas/any company with proved oil =
reserves going=20
  up. <BR>You don't have to pick the best company in the group. Throw a =
dart at=20
  any <BR>company on the list for success. Home builders: low interest =
rates,=20
  <BR>increased new home sales, increased building permits but let the =
interest=20
  <BR>rates go up a little and home builders start correcting along with =
home=20
  <BR>mortgage businesses and banks living on refinancing income. In =
fact let an=20
  <BR>influential analysis say interest rates have bottomed and all =
these groups=20
  <BR>start down no proof needed.Good companies along with bad. I'm =
confused and=20
  <BR>bloodied but feel one key is tracking industry groups. I ask for =
comment=20
  <BR>and/or instruction.=20
  =
gas175k<BR><BR><BR><BR>__________________________________________________=
_______________<BR>MSN=20
  Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: <BR><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx">http://photos.msn.c=
om/support/worldwide.aspx</A><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
  subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:[e-mail]">[e-mail]</A>"<BR>-In=
 the=20
  email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim".  Do=20
  not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

- ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C1B78F.EB7F9D60--


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 16:13:18 +0100
From: Andreas Himmelreich <[e-mail]>
Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.

Hi,

Once again a quote from http://beta.dailygraphs.com/tutorials/b04a.asp =
- -->

"Here's a case where herd mentality works to your advantage. Studies =
show=20
37% of a stock's move is directly tied to the performance of the =
industry=20
the stock is in. Another 12% is due to strength in its overall sector."

I put a file to http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/IGfiles.zip, which shows =
the=20
correlation in an example. I found hundreds of them and still find them=20
every day. Basically you can take the chart patterns and apply them to=20
industry groups and you will find very strong and dependable trends =
where=20
false breakouts take place, but much less then with individual stocks.

Here and example on the short side:

http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/IGShortexample.zip

Here an example for an IG that sets up a bull market for its members:

http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/BullmarketforBuilders.zip

Important is: Price and RS need to make new highs (lows for shorting) =
our=20
of a base for a buy signal. For the long side I like IGs that cross RS =
of=20
60 to 70.
On the short side crossing RS of 30.

But it can be also very profitable to get into trends that are well=20
established, e.g. where the RS is above 90, but then be sure that you =
wait=20
for a second price and RS base and a second Breakout to get in and be =
rigid=20
if the group shows sell signals.

Best Regards

Andreas





And this is perfectly canslim, because Oneil states that if you go with =
a=20
breakout, look if other stocks out of the group have or had a breakout =
as=20
well ...






> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----
> Von:    Gary A. Snyder [SMTP:[e-mail]]
> Gesendet am:    Sunday, February 17, 2002 2:30 PM
> An:    [e-mail]
> Betreff:    [CANSLIM] Industry group movements.
>
>
>
>
>
> I am fascinated by industry group movement but can't figure out what =
move =0D
> groups up and down. For example: EPIQ is for sure a fine investment =
and I =0D
> have owned it but the last big move it made from about 13 to 25 the=20
industry
> group moved from at least the lower B group to 30-32. If the industry=20
group
> had not moved EPIQ would still be building a base. In the same group =
BARZ =0D
> went from 35 to 55, ADVS 29 to 51, FIC 39 to 63, BSYS 44 to 63. Even=20
thought
> these companies offer completely different software to the financial
> industry. A few months ago IBD used GNSS, a semi manufacture, as an=20
example
> of a successful cup and handle but failed the mention that the =
industry
> group started up from a e rating and worked its way up to at least the =

mid b
> rating, against WON rule look in the top sixty groups.  Not just GNSS, =

all
> the semi manufacturing stocks were going up even if they were over =
bought=20
by
> as much as 50%. You may think that you are picking good companies and =
you =0D
> are but they are not going anywhere until the industrial group is =
going=20
up.
> So what moves these industry groups? Some are easy to figure: defense
> stocks- government spending to increase dramatically per purposed =
budget. =0D
> Safety and security- the terrorist effect. Any computer group a month=20
ago- I
> don't have a clue. You don't want to know how poorly some of these=20
security
> companies were rated when they started moving up and they are not
> fundamentally good companies but that doesn't matter if the market=20
perceives
> future growth. Some of these security companies have very poor=20
fundamentals
> but that does not stop them from going through the roof if the =
industry
> group is on the rise. The rating on some of these companies look great
> now(after the fact). Lower oil prices helped the success of
> transportation/trucking even in a bad economy but if the price of oil=20
goes
> up for any of a number of reasons, number one being Iraq targeted as =
the
> next enemy on the war on terrorism transportation/trucking will go =
down=20
so
> fast only bested by oil&gas/any company with proved oil reserves going =

up.
> You don't have to pick the best company in the group. Throw a dart at =
any =0D
> company on the list for success. Home builders: low interest rates,
> increased new home sales, increased building permits but let the =
interest =0D
> rates go up a little and home builders start correcting along with =
home
> mortgage businesses and banks living on refinancing income. In fact =
let=20
an
> influential analysis say interest rates have bottomed and all these=20
groups
> start down no proof needed.Good companies along with bad. I'm confused =

and
> bloodied but feel one key is tracking industry groups. I ask for =
comment
> and/or instruction. gas175k
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos:
> http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 09:16:10 -0600
From: "Katherine Malm" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

- ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C1B793.BD5ABB00
Content-Type: text/plain;
    charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Hi jans,

I wouldn't say that the market direction isn't important. I'd state it a =
bit differently---I will not simply "stay out" because the collective =
index is behaving a certain way. If you'll bear with me, I'll try and =
give a reasoned answer as to why.

The market is a market of stocks, not a "stock market." If you are =
trading an index, then the condition of the stock market index is =
meaningful because you are trading "all stocks in the index." Example, =
trading the SPY's the QQQ's, an index fund that tracks the market, etc. =
You are then trading the "collective whole." But if I take out my =
Sherlock Holmes spy glass, I see that under the surface, there are many =
stocks doing different things. These represent many companies in many =
markets with many products who serve varied economic needs. To say that =
"all stocks move the same direction" is to assume that all products, =
markets, economically sensitive groups move in exactly the same way at =
exactly the same time. They do not. What *does* tend to move in tandem =
is human emotion. If people "believe" that equities are a good =
investment, they will vote with their dollars. If they "believe" that =
investing in something else is better, they will move their money out of =
the equity markets. So, we have 2 things working against each other. =
But....if you are an investor in individual equities, you know that, =
despite human emotion, the US markets have *huge* amounts of money that =
have to stay invested one way or another....guess what.....these are =
institutional monies like pension funds, mutual funds from 401K plans, =
insurance company monies, etc.

Conclusion? There will always be *some* money moving around in the =
equity markets. If I choose to put my money there, then I know that =
there will be some stocks going up and some stocks going down. In some =
ways, that means that the "index" of all stocks has far less meaning to =
me than the strength of an individual stock because the "index" hides =
underlying strength. Now I have to be able to spot the good stocks. =
Human emotion and economic/business factors still play a role here, so =
using industry movement *and* stock movement together gives me some =
markers to help direct my attention. In CANSLIM, I know there are some =
underlying assumptions and so I can make some conclusions based on =
those:

- --CANSLIM is not a bottom fishing strategy, therefore, find strength and =
buy into strength
- --CANSLIM is not a "get on the band wagon first" strategy, therefore, =
find upward movement early in the move and *follow* it up

These kinds of strategies are particularly important if monies are in =
non-marginable accounts that can't be shorted. In marginable accounts, =
the other way to play a choppy, sideways or declining "market" is to =
turn CANSLIM upside down and find stocks breaking down in industries =
breaking down and short them. But, either way, the strategy is the same. =
Once the market trends strongly one direction or another, it just means =
those positions found early in a move can be ridden *longer.* For =
example, stocks I rode long in late '98-'99 I got to ride for a very =
long time, stocks I shorted in early 2000 I got to ride for many weeks. =
As the bear wore on, the long and short rides became of shorter and =
shorter duration. I think of it as shaking out a table cloth. The first =
couple of shakes get most of the debris out, but then you have to shake =
it like the dickens in shorter and shorter motions to get those tiny =
crumbs to let loose. Once the table cloth is clean, you can put it back =
on the table and start a new meal.

Katherine
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: [e-mail]=20
  To: [e-mail]=20
  Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 10:49 PM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates


  Katherine:

       Apropos of your E-mail, then, are you stating that the Market's=20
  direction isn't as important as WON says it is.  He says that about =
70% of=20
  stocks will fall, no matter how great their earnings are, during a =
bear=20
  market.  That's why he advises not to go long during a bear.

       I've been taking this advice.  Anecdotally, based on my =
experience in=20
  the market, his advice regarding the Market's direction and when and =
when not=20
  to buy stocks always seemed valid.  However, as I understand it, you =
are=20
  saying that strong stocks (stocks with high and accelerating earnings) =
in=20
  strong industries will do well-even during a bear.  And how do you =
define a=20
  "strong industry"?  The top 40% of IBD's 197?

       I wonder if WON has ever done a statistical study on the 70% =
failure=20
  rate of strong stocks WHEN the strong stock is in a strong industry?  =
It=20
  would be very interesting to see if the 70% falls, and by how much it =
falls. =20
  It would be even more eye-opening if he were able to statistically =
correlate=20
  the strength of the industry (during a bear) with the likelihood that =
the=20
  stock would rise or fall.

  jans


  In a message dated 2/16/2002 10:57:52 AM Eastern Standard Time,=20
  [e-mail] writes:

  << I don't buy the CANSLIM party line that you should "stay out" of =
the=20
  market if there aren't 1000's of stocks to choose from. I look for =
good=20
  stocks with rising relative strength, strategic advantage and good =
technical=20
  strength that are members of rising and strong industry groups. I sell =
stocks=20
  that break down technically or that are members of a group that is =
beginning=20
  to break down. I short stocks/groups in industries that are breaking =
down to=20
  take advantage of the prevailing winds. I let the market tell me which =
kinds=20
  of stocks are doing well. Whether it's value/growth, small/mid/large =
cap,=20
  industry group, I'm agnostic (except that I *do* stay away from super=20
  microcaps). What works, works and I have a methodology that looks for =
what's=20
  working.
  =20
   The "market" is nothing more than a market of stocks. Too many people =
focus=20
  on what's *not* working and miss the many great opportunities that are =
out=20
  there. One of my mentors always says "when the market speaks, have big =
ears."=20
  I say, "when a stock and an industry speaks, have big ears." As I see =
it, too=20
  many folks are still focused on what *was* working during the last =
Great Bull=20
  market. This is the history of markets...  >>

  -
  -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
  -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
  -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


- ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C1B793.BD5ABB00
Content-Type: text/html;
    charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4807.2300" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi jans,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I wouldn't say that the market direction isn't important. I'd state =
it a=20
bit differently---I will not simply "stay out" because the collective =
index is=20
behaving a certain way. If you'll bear with me, I'll try and give a =
reasoned=20
answer as to why.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The market is a market of stocks, not a "stock market." If you are =
trading=20
an index, then the condition of the stock market index is meaningful =
because you=20
are trading "all stocks in the index." Example, trading the SPY's the =
QQQ's, an=20
index fund that tracks the market, etc. You are then trading the =
"collective=20
whole." But if I take out my Sherlock Holmes spy glass, I see that under =
the=20
surface, there are many stocks doing different things. These represent =
many=20
companies in many markets with many products who serve varied economic =
needs. To=20
say that "all stocks move the same direction" is to assume that all =
products,=20
markets, economically sensitive groups move in exactly the same way at =
exactly=20
the same time. They do not. What *does* tend to move in tandem is human =
emotion.=20
If people "believe" that equities are a good investment, they will vote =
with=20
their dollars. If they "believe" that investing in something else is =
better,=20
they will move their money out of the equity markets. So, we have 2 =
things=20
working against each other. But....if you are an investor in individual=20
equities, you know that, despite human emotion, the US markets have =
*huge*=20
amounts of money that have to stay invested one way or another....guess=20
what.....these are institutional monies like pension funds, mutual funds =
from=20
401K plans, insurance company monies, etc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Conclusion? There will always be *some* money moving around in the =
equity=20
markets. If I choose to put my money there, then I know that there will =
be some=20
stocks going up and some stocks going down. In some ways, that means =
that the=20
"index" of all stocks has far less meaning to me than the strength of an =

individual stock because the "index" hides underlying strength. Now I =
have to be=20
able to spot the good stocks. Human emotion and economic/business =
factors still=20
play a role here, so using industry movement *and* stock movement =
together gives=20
me some markers to help direct my attention. In CANSLIM, I know there =
are some=20
underlying assumptions and so I can make some conclusions based on =
those:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>--CANSLIM is not a bottom fishing strategy, therefore, find =
strength and=20
buy into strength</DIV>
<DIV>--CANSLIM is not a "get on the band wagon first" strategy, =
therefore, find=20
upward movement early in the move and *follow* it up</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>These kinds of strategies are particularly important if monies are =
in=20
non-marginable accounts that can't be shorted. In marginable accounts, =
the other=20
way to play a choppy, sideways or declining "market" is to turn CANSLIM =
upside=20
down and find stocks breaking down in industries breaking down and short =
them.=20
But, either way, the strategy is the same. Once the market trends =
strongly one=20
direction or another, it just means those positions found early in a =
move can be=20
ridden *longer.* For example, stocks I rode long in late '98-'99 I got =
to ride=20
for a very long time, stocks I shorted in early 2000 I got to ride for =
many=20
weeks. As the bear wore on, the long and short rides became of shorter =
and=20
shorter duration. I think of it as shaking out a table cloth. The first =
couple=20
of shakes get most of the debris out, but then you have to shake it like =
the=20
dickens in shorter and shorter motions to get those tiny crumbs to let =
loose.=20
Once the table cloth is clean, you can put it back on the table and =
start a new=20
meal.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=[e-mail]=20
  href=3D"mailto:[e-mail]">[e-mail]</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=[e-mail]=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:[e-mail]">[e-mail]</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 16, =
2002 10:49=20
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of =
Buy=20
  Candidates</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Katherine:<BR><BR>     Apropos of =
your=20
  E-mail, then, are you stating that the Market's <BR>direction isn't as =

  important as WON says it is.  He says that about 70% of =
<BR>stocks will=20
  fall, no matter how great their earnings are, during a bear =
<BR>market. =20
  That's why he advises not to go long during a=20
  bear.<BR><BR>     I've been taking this =
advice. =20
  Anecdotally, based on my experience in <BR>the market, his advice =
regarding=20
  the Market's direction and when and when not <BR>to buy stocks always =
seemed=20
  valid.  However, as I understand it, you are <BR>saying that =
strong=20
  stocks (stocks with high and accelerating earnings) in <BR>strong =
industries=20
  will do well-even during a bear.  And how do you define a =
<BR>"strong=20
  industry"?  The top 40% of IBD's =
197?<BR><BR>     I=20
  wonder if WON has ever done a statistical study on the 70% failure =
<BR>rate of=20
  strong stocks WHEN the strong stock is in a strong industry?  It=20
  <BR>would be very interesting to see if the 70% falls, and by how much =
it=20
  falls.  <BR>It would be even more eye-opening if he were able to=20
  statistically correlate <BR>the strength of the industry (during a =
bear) with=20
  the likelihood that the <BR>stock would rise or=20
  fall.<BR><BR>jans<BR><BR><BR>In a message dated 2/16/2002 10:57:52 AM =
Eastern=20
  Standard Time, <BR><A=20
  href=3D"mailto:[e-mail]">[e-mail]</A>=20
  writes:<BR><BR><< I don't buy the CANSLIM party line that you =
should=20
  "stay out" of the <BR>market if there aren't 1000's of stocks to =
choose from.=20
  I look for good <BR>stocks with rising relative strength, strategic =
advantage=20
  and good technical <BR>strength that are members of rising and strong =
industry=20
  groups. I sell stocks <BR>that break down technically or that are =
members of a=20
  group that is beginning <BR>to break down. I short stocks/groups in =
industries=20
  that are breaking down to <BR>take advantage of the prevailing winds. =
I let=20
  the market tell me which kinds <BR>of stocks are doing well. Whether =
it's=20
  value/growth, small/mid/large cap, <BR>industry group, I'm agnostic =
(except=20
  that I *do* stay away from super <BR>microcaps). What works, works and =
I have=20
  a methodology that looks for what's =
<BR>working.<BR> <BR> The=20
  "market" is nothing more than a market of stocks. Too many people =
focus <BR>on=20
  what's *not* working and miss the many great opportunities that are =
out=20
  <BR>there. One of my mentors always says "when the market speaks, have =
big=20
  ears." <BR>I say, "when a stock and an industry speaks, have big =
ears." As I=20
  see it, too <BR>many folks are still focused on what *was* working =
during the=20
  last Great Bull <BR>market. This is the history of markets... =20
  >><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:[e-mail]">[e-mail]</A>"<BR>-In=
 the=20
  email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim".  Do=20
  not use quotes in your email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

- ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C1B793.BD5ABB00--


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "[e-mail]"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

End of canslim-digest V2 #2130
******************************

 To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
 "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your message.