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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2049
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Precedence: bulk
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X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Thursday, January 17 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2049
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Re: [CANSLIM] NMTC down grade.
Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future.... INS - Not Canslim
Re: [CANSLIM] NMTC down grade.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:01:48 -0600
From: Gyorgy Veszpremi <GyorgyV@rcmachine.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
- --------------C44170B717810500FE403020
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a surprise after the
last 3 down days on increased volume.
Tom Worley wrote:
> Hi Katherine, I took a quick look around, as I was curious about this anomaly.
> Several items I noted: MCAF notes their tax rate in 2002 expected to jump to
> 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding earnings guidance even higher. They
> are the antivirus of choice for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an
> antispam for that source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much
> revenues they are taking in from MS for this. They indicate they are bundled
> with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came with Norton from
> Symantec. Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual results,
> fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for SYMC. Sell on news,
> MCAF results older than SYMC. I see little "dumb" about still owning MCAF in
> light of the past few months, especially if you bought it cheap. Maybe I might
> have cut my position some in the past few days, but if I had been smart enough
> to buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely I would still now have a
> position. Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> AIM: TexWorley
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Katherine Malm
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31 AM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF
> Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF anomaly.... Will
> post a technical post analysis later. I should just call this DYII,
> FIC revisited... Katherine
>
Jan 17 2002 In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%): Robertson Stephens is raising
several issues following MCAF's earnings report last night; believes
11:21 AM that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit following co's change in
license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers grew by only
125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident that 2002
numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would not be
constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.
>
Jan 16 2002 In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- During its conference call,
the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95
5:26 PM mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of $80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn,
and EPS should be in the range of $0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev
consensus of $85.82 mln, and better than EPS consensus of $0.22).
>
Jan 16 2002 In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four
cents better than the Multex consensus of $0.05; revenues were $18.6
4:43 PM mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.
>
- --------------C44170B717810500FE403020
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Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<!doctype html public "-//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en">
<html>
<body bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a surprise
after the last 3 down days on increased volume.
<br>
<p>Tom Worley wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE><style></style>
<font face="Arial">Hi Katherine,</font> <font face="Arial">I
took a quick look around, as I was curious about this anomaly. Several
items I noted:</font> <font face="Arial">MCAF notes their tax rate
in 2002 expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding earnings
guidance even higher.</font> <font face="Arial">They are the antivirus
of choice for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for that
source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues they
are taking in from MS for this.</font> <font face="Arial">They indicate
they are bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came
with Norton from</font>
<br><font face="Arial">Symantec.</font> <font face="Arial">Both beat
expectations by a wide margin, but actual results, fundies, and forward
looking statements look stronger for SYMC.</font> <font face="Arial">Sell
on news, MCAF results older than SYMC.</font> <font face="Arial">I
see little "dumb" about still owning MCAF in light of the past few months,
especially if you bought it cheap. Maybe I might have cut my position some
in the past few days, but if I had been smart enough to buy it in late
Sept or early Oct, likely I would still now have a position.</font> Tom
Worley
<br><a href="mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</a>
<br>AIM: TexWorley
<blockquote dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>
<div
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title="kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine
Malm</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31
AM</div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> [CANSLIM] MCAF</div>
Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF anomaly.... Will
post a technical post analysis later. I should just call this DYII,
FIC revisited... Katherine
<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>
<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4g">Jan 17 2002
<br>11:21 AM</td>
<td VALIGN=TOP ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="10%" class="td7g"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7g">In
Play</a></font></td>
<td ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="78%" class="r2">McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%):
Robertson Stephens is raising several issues following MCAF's earnings
report last night; believes that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit
following co's change in license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers
grew by only 125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident
that 2002 numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would
not be constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.</td>
</tr>
</table>
<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>
<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4w">Jan 16 2002
<br>5:26 PM</td>
<td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="10%" class="td7w"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7w">In
Play</a></font></td>
<td WIDTH="78%">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- During its
conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 mln/$0.06 (consensus
is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of $80-$90 mln, 69-72%
gross mgn, and EPS should be in the range of $0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point
of rev consensus of $85.82 mln, and <font color="#228822">better than</font>
EPS consensus of $0.22).</td>
</tr>
</table>
<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>
<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4g">Jan 16 2002
<br>4:43 PM</td>
<td VALIGN=TOP ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="10%" class="td7g"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7g">In
Play</a></font></td>
<td ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="78%" class="r2">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports
Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than the Multex consensus
of $0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.</td>
</tr>
</table>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</body>
</html>
- --------------C44170B717810500FE403020--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:03:36 -0600
From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0140_01C19F46.9C993D20
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Understood...all the sell signals were there...just lost focus....more =
in the post analysis
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gyorgy Veszpremi=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a surprise =
after the last 3 down days on increased volume.=20
=20
Tom Worley wrote:=20
Hi Katherine, I took a quick look around, as I was curious about =
this anomaly. Several items I noted: MCAF notes their tax rate in 2002 =
expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding earnings =
guidance even higher. They are the antivirus of choice for MSN's =
Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for that source. And with =
Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues they are taking in =
from MS for this. They indicate they are bundled with Windows XP, but my =
new computer (with WIN XP) came with Norton from=20
Symantec. Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual =
results, fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for SYMC. =
Sell on news, MCAF results older than SYMC. I see little "dumb" about =
still owning MCAF in light of the past few months, especially if you =
bought it cheap. Maybe I might have cut my position some in the past few =
days, but if I had been smart enough to buy it in late Sept or early =
Oct, likely I would still now have a position. Tom Worley=20
stkguru@netside.net=20
AIM: TexWorley=20
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF anomaly.... =
Will post a technical post analysis later. I should just call this DYII, =
FIC revisited... Katherine =20
Jan 17 2002=20
11:21 AM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%): =
Robertson Stephens is raising several issues following MCAF's earnings =
report last night; believes that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit =
following co's change in license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 =
subscribers grew by only 125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains =
confident that 2002 numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, =
and would not be constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.=20
=20
Jan 16 2002=20
5:26 PM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- =
During its conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 =
mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of =
$80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn, and EPS should be in the range of =
$0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev consensus of $85.82 mln, and better =
than EPS consensus of $0.22).=20
=20
Jan 16 2002=20
4:43 PM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports Q4 =
(Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than the Multex consensus of =
$0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.=20
- ------=_NextPart_000_0140_01C19F46.9C993D20
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Understood...all the sell signals were there...just lost =
focus....more in=20
the post analysis</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DGyorgyV@rcmachine.com =
href=3D"mailto:GyorgyV@rcmachine.com">Gyorgy=20
Veszpremi</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 17, =
2002 11:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
MCAF</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was =
not a=20
surprise after the last 3 down days on increased volume. <BR> =20
<P>Tom Worley wrote:=20
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=3D"CITE">
<STYLE></STYLE>
<FONT face=3DArial>Hi Katherine,</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>I =
took a quick=20
look around, as I was curious about this anomaly. Several items I=20
noted:</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>MCAF notes their tax rate in =
2002=20
expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding earnings =
guidance even higher.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>They are the =
antivirus of=20
choice for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for =
that=20
source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues =
they are=20
taking in from MS for this.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>They =
indicate they=20
are bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came =
with=20
Norton from</FONT> <BR><FONT =
face=3DArial>Symantec.</FONT> <FONT=20
face=3DArial>Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual =
results,=20
fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for=20
SYMC.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>Sell on news, MCAF results =
older than=20
SYMC.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>I see little "dumb" about still =
owning=20
MCAF in light of the past few months, especially if you bought it =
cheap.=20
Maybe I might have cut my position some in the past few days, but if =
I had=20
been smart enough to buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely I =
would still=20
now have a position.</FONT> Tom Worley <BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A> <BR>AIM: =
TexWorley=20
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 17, =
2002=20
11:31 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM]=20
MCAF</DIV> Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF=20
anomaly.... Will post a technical post analysis later. I =
should=20
just call this DYII, FIC revisited... Katherine =20
<TABLE cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<CAPTION>
<TBODY><BR></TBODY></CAPTION>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4g vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 17 2002 =
<BR>11:21=20
AM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7g vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%" rowSpan=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#000000><A class=3Dtd7g=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN">In=20
Play</A></FONT></TD>
<TD class=3Dr2 width=3D"78%" rowSpan=3D2>McAfee.com (MCAF) =
24.85 -7.44=20
(-23%): Robertson Stephens is raising several issues =
following=20
MCAF's earnings report last night; believes that the quality =
of=20
revenue has eroded a bit following co's change in license =
revenue=20
structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers grew by only 125K vs =
200K=20
sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident that 2002 =
numbers are=20
beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would not be=20
constructive on the name until a move to $20 or=20
below.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<CAPTION>
<TBODY><BR></TBODY></CAPTION>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4w vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 16 2002 =
<BR>5:26=20
PM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7w vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><A=20
class=3Dtd7w=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN">In=20
Play</A></FONT></TD>
<TD width=3D"78%">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- =
During=20
its conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to =
$19.1=20
mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections =
are revs=20
of $80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn, and EPS should be in the =
range of=20
$0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev consensus of $85.82 =
mln, and=20
<FONT color=3D#228822>better than</FONT> EPS consensus of=20
$0.22).</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<CAPTION>
<TBODY><BR></TBODY></CAPTION>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4g vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 16 2002 =
<BR>4:43=20
PM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7g vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%" rowSpan=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#000000><A class=3Dtd7g=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN">In=20
Play</A></FONT></TD>
<TD class=3Dr2 width=3D"78%" rowSpan=3D2>McAfee.com (MCAF) =
32.29 -4.11:=20
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than =
the=20
Multex consensus of $0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the =
consensus=20
of $17.8=20
mln.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BO=
DY></HTML>
- ------=_NextPart_000_0140_01C19F46.9C993D20--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:57:58 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NMTC down grade.
But NMTC has 41% funds ownership of half the issue. Good example of the
dangers of high funds ownership, and how they all seem to follow the
Shepard.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Triffet" <BillTriffet@simonbros.com>
To: "canslim" <canslim@mail.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:59 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] NMTC down grade.
> Amazing what a downgrade will do for a stock! I had been following this
one
> since its Dec. gap up looking for an entry.
> On a side note (just a strange observation): If you lay the 1 year charts
of
> NMTC and DYII together (I used Clearstation) they run parallel. Hmmm.
>
> -Bill
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
>
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:09:11 -0600
From: Gyorgy Veszpremi <GyorgyV@rcmachine.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
- --------------063D31B4165C0618E0D5B610
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Unfortunately, nowadays any every news that is not excellent can decimate a
stock.
Katherine Malm wrote:
> Understood...all the sell signals were there...just lost focus....more in the
> post analysis
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Gyorgy Veszpremi
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:01 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
> If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a
> surprise after the last 3 down days on increased volume.
>
>
> Tom Worley wrote:
>
> > Hi Katherine, I took a quick look around, as I was curious about
> > this anomaly. Several items I noted: MCAF notes their tax rate in
> > 2002 expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding
> > earnings guidance even higher. They are the antivirus of choice
> > for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for that
> > source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues
> > they are taking in from MS for this. They indicate they are
> > bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came
> > with Norton from
> > Symantec. Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual
> > results, fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for
> > SYMC. Sell on news, MCAF results older than SYMC. I see little
> > "dumb" about still owning MCAF in light of the past few months,
> > especially if you bought it cheap. Maybe I might have cut my
> > position some in the past few days, but if I had been smart enough
> > to buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely I would still now have
> > a position. Tom Worley
> > stkguru@netside.net
> > AIM: TexWorley
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Katherine Malm
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31 AM
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF
> > Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF
> > anomaly.... Will post a technical post analysis later. I
> > should just call this DYII, FIC revisited... Katherine
> >
Jan 17 In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%): Robertson Stephens is raising
2002 several issues following MCAF's earnings report last night; believes
11:21 AM that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit following co's change in
license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers grew by only
125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident that 2002
numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would not be
constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.
> >
Jan 16 In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- During its conference call,
2002 the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95
5:26 PM mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of $80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn,
and EPS should be in the range of $0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev
consensus of $85.82 mln, and better than EPS consensus of $0.22).
> >
Jan 16 In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four
2002 cents better than the Multex consensus of $0.05; revenues were $18.6
4:43 PM mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.
> >
- --------------063D31B4165C0618E0D5B610
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Unfortunately, nowadays any every news that is not excellent can decimate
a stock.
<p>Katherine Malm wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE> Understood...all the sell signals were there...just
lost focus....more in the post analysis
<blockquote dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>
<div
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:GyorgyV@rcmachine.com" title="GyorgyV@rcmachine.com">Gyorgy
Veszpremi</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:01
AM</div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF</div>
If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a surprise
after the last 3 down days on increased volume.
<br>
<p>Tom Worley wrote:
<blockquote TYPE="CITE"><style></style>
<font face="Arial">Hi Katherine,</font>
<font face="Arial">I took a quick look around, as I was curious about this
anomaly. Several items I noted:</font> <font face="Arial">MCAF notes their
tax rate in 2002 expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding
earnings guidance even higher.</font> <font face="Arial">They are the antivirus
of choice for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for that
source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues they
are taking in from MS for this.</font> <font face="Arial">They indicate
they are bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came
with Norton from</font>
<br><font face="Arial">Symantec.</font> <font face="Arial">Both beat expectations
by a wide margin, but actual results, fundies, and forward looking statements
look stronger for SYMC.</font> <font face="Arial">Sell on news, MCAF results
older than SYMC.</font> <font face="Arial">I see little "dumb" about still
owning MCAF in light of the past few months, especially if you bought it
cheap. Maybe I might have cut my position some in the past few days, but
if I had been smart enough to buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely
I would still now have a position.</font> Tom Worley
<br><a href="mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</a>
<br>AIM: TexWorley
<blockquote dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>
<div
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title="kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine
Malm</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31
AM</div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> [CANSLIM] MCAF</div>
Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF anomaly.... Will
post a technical post analysis later. I should just call this DYII, FIC
revisited... Katherine
<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY>
<br><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>
<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4g">Jan 17 2002
<br>11:21 AM</td>
<td VALIGN=TOP ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="10%" class="td7g"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7g">In
Play</a></font></td>
<td ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="78%" class="r2">McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%):
Robertson Stephens is raising several issues following MCAF's earnings
report last night; believes that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit
following co's change in license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers
grew by only 125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident
that 2002 numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would
not be constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.</td>
</tr>
</table>
<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY>
<br><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>
<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4w">Jan 16 2002
<br>5:26 PM</td>
<td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="10%" class="td7w"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7w">In
Play</a></font></td>
<td WIDTH="78%">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- During its
conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 mln/$0.06 (consensus
is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of $80-$90 mln, 69-72%
gross mgn, and EPS should be in the range of $0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point
of rev consensus of $85.82 mln, and <font color="#228822">better than</font>
EPS consensus of $0.22).</td>
</tr>
</table>
<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY>
<br><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>
<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4g">Jan 16 2002
<br>4:43 PM</td>
<td VALIGN=TOP ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="10%" class="td7g"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7g">In
Play</a></font></td>
<td ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="78%" class="r2">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports
Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than the Multex consensus
of $0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.</td>
</tr>
</table>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</body>
</html>
- --------------063D31B4165C0618E0D5B610--
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------------------------------
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 09:10:11 -0800 (PST)
From: Fanus <fanus13@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future.... INS - Not Canslim
I am currently a green card holder, so I guess I am
one of the baffoons. It took me 3 years to get a
green card and I had to have proof of employment
before obtaining a workers visa. After one obtain a
green card, you need to wait 5 years before you can
become citizen, (if you marry a citizen, you have to
wait 3 years), only then can you vote. So on average
one can only vote after about 8 years. Don't know
where you get the idea that people can vote right
away. Furthermore, I am not elegible for welfare and
social security. Only citizens are. But I still pay
social security tax, which I do not have a problem
with. This is a small price to pay to work in a stable
country.
Keep in mind, the general idea of immigrants working
in the US is to fill jobs for which there are a
shortage of skilled workers. And yes, there had to be
a shortage. Before being able to get my green card,
my job had to be advertised in a newspaper and only
after there weren't qualifying applications from US
citizens were it determined that there is a shortage
for that particular skill. I am not sure how you
consider filling shortages as hurting the country.
You also cannot blame the INS for illegal immigrants
working here. The INS had nothing to do with them.
That is why they are illegal.
I am sorry for going off the topic of the discussion
list, but couldn't let this one slip by.
Regards
- - Fanus
- --- Dan Forant <dforant1@nycap.rr.com> wrote:
> Please, let's not compare the immigrants of today
> with the past. No
> comparison. If you don't believe the INS has hurt
> the Nation in general,
> that's your right. This was a broad stroke
> statement, not just about Miami,
> but including Miami.
>
> DanF
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 1:23 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under water
> ....
>
>
> > Dan, having lived in Miami, FL for the past 18
> years, I take exception to
> > your statements.
> >
> > The bulk of the immigrants that have settled here
> are Cuban, and they are
> > among the most hard working people I have met.
> They are family oriented,
> and
> > welcome with open arms even very distant
> relatives, or even friends or
> > neighbors of distant relatives. They help find
> them a place to live, they
> > find them a job, they support them and ease the
> transition into a new
> > country and culture.
> >
> > I also believe one of the requirements to gain
> resident alien status is
> > proof of a job, or other means of support to
> ensure welfare will not be an
> > issue.
> >
> > I certainly would not be still living in the city
> of Miami after 18 years
> if
> > I believe it was "ruined".
> >
> > Where did you get the notion that a recent
> immigrant, legal or illegal,
> was
> > even allowed to vote? Are you forgetting that most
> present day citizens of
> > the USA were once an immigrant, or are descended
> from an immigrant? Not a
> > bad thing, I believe this cultural blend is what
> has made this country so
> > great, and made it value freedom so much.
> >
> > I would also note that typically only a very small
> percentage of the
> > citizens of the United States even bother to vote.
> Guess the ones that
> don't
> > bother are baffoons as well?
> >
> > Tom Worley
> > stkguru@netside.net
> > AIM: TexWorley
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Dan Forant" <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 7:17 PM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under
> water ....
> >
> >
> > > Fanus,
> > >
> > > It is a well known fact the last Administration
> let in a bunch of
> baffoons
> > > mainly so they would enroll Democrat and vote.
> Un-controlled borders
> etc.
> > > Carter did the same thing and ruined Miami Fla.
> Most of these enrolled
> > > immediately for welfare of sorts. Couldn't or
> can't speak the language
> let
> > > alone have a trade of any sort. That doesn't
> include the illegal ones
> > > including those from the troubled Middle East.
> > >
> > > DanF
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Fanus" <fanus13@yahoo.com>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 4:28 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under
> water ....
> > >
> > >
> > > > Dan
> > > >
> > > > Please clarify your statement "The INS has
> screwed up
> > > > the makeup of our Country..."
> > > >
> > > > - Fanus
> > > >
> > > > --- Dan Forant <dforant1@nycap.rr.com> wrote:
> > > > > Glug,glug,glug, under water is right. Enron
> may have
> > > > > put the final nail in
> > > > > the coffin for awhile. This combined with
> future
> > > > > bleak earnings spell
> > > > > trouble ahead. Kmart bumbling along with
> other bad
> > > > > news such as the SEC's
> > > > > inability to keep track of GIANTS have given
> > > > > investors a bad taste. Congress
> > > > > will bloat and gloat for months over Enron
> and I
> > > > > believe very little will be
> > > > > done about it legally. Congress is part of
> the
> > > > > problem. Campaign $$$. The
> > > > > INS has screwed up the makeup of our
> Country, the
> > > > > Government (SEC) may now
> > > > > have set back our financial markets for
> quite
> > > > > awhile.. That's why a large
> > > > > brokerage house recently said to be only 50%
> > > > > invested. But then again
> > > > > ........of course they would.
> > > > >
> > > > > DanF
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Andreas Himmelreich"
> <judgejimmy@web.de>
> > > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 7:42 AM
> > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under
> water ....
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Nasdaq Future is under water ....
> > > > > >
> > > > > > -
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> > > >
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------------------------------
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:11:57 -0600
From: Gyorgy Veszpremi <GyorgyV@rcmachine.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NMTC down grade.
NMTC also showed major distribution over the last 5 days (that should have been
enough time to get out. At least I think so. It is very important to read the
chart.
Tom Worley wrote:
> But NMTC has 41% funds ownership of half the issue. Good example of the
> dangers of high funds ownership, and how they all seem to follow the
> Shepard.
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> AIM: TexWorley
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bill Triffet" <BillTriffet@simonbros.com>
> To: "canslim" <canslim@mail.xmission.com>
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:59 AM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] NMTC down grade.
>
> > Amazing what a downgrade will do for a stock! I had been following this
> one
> > since its Dec. gap up looking for an entry.
> > On a side note (just a strange observation): If you lay the 1 year charts
> of
> > NMTC and DYII together (I used Clearstation) they run parallel. Hmmm.
> >
> > -Bill
> >
> >
> > -
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