<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, October 17, 2001 6:21 PM<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [CANSLIM] MGAM<br>
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<font size=2>Hi Doug,</font><br>
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<font size=2>We are in very volatile times, where whisper numbers get investors hyped, then sell on news when even the whisper # isn't blown away. Forget what the analysts are "officially" saying, even what they say to their most important clients isn't considered acceptable unless the final results exceed that. So if they only end up with 24 cents, the reaction is more likely to be "gee, we were expecting 40 cents so they would beat the forecast" rather than "hey, look at this, up 50% over last year".</font><br>
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<font size=2>"Investors" are looking for an excuse to lock in short term trading profits, rather than recognizing that the winners are the ones they should keep, and the losers, where they have losses, are they ones to sell.</font><br>
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<font size=2>I do agree, tribal casinos are popping up all over, even if they are not on traditional tribal lands, much less a traditional tribal occupation. So they are easier to travel to, but if the population just wants to stay home where they feel safe, or just got laid off so money is tight, then even the convenience of driving to an Indian casino may not appeal. A few months ago, new Indian casino facilities were appearing so fast that many were operating, surprise, out of tents or other temporary structures because they couldn't be built that fast. I haven't seen much news lately about this growth, don't know if the growth stopped, or is just not being reported.</font><br>
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<font size=2>Heavy volume without price appreciation is always suspect, and suggestive of distribution where the institutionals are dumping, and the retail smucks (us guys) are buying. I would watch the up/down ratio closely for a direction of its trend.</font><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, October 17, 2001 8:31 PM<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [CANSLIM] MGAM<br>
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That's a good point Tom about needing to make .35 to meet the .80 annual est. But lets say the earnings are flat at .24 for this coming quarter. That gives total earnings of .69 which is a 50% increase over .46. (I'm hoping I'm getting my math right here). Which still ain't bad. And another point....DGO describes MGAM's business as involving selling high stakes and electronic based bingo games to the Indian Gaming industry. (Personally Bingo doesn't excite me as a growth industry but neither did donuts or commercial education and I missed out on those. I'm trying not to make that mistake again.) Indian casinos are spread out all over the country and are far easier to get to then the traditional casino meccas. <br>
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What do you think of 3X adv and virtually no price movement. Is that churning, distribution, or what?<br>
<font size=2>Looks like they must do 35 cents in Q4 (ended Sept) to meet full year expectations. Looks possible, but doubtful they can much exceed that. And with the drop in travel and other things, including gambling, since 9/11, they may even fall short. And I would think the 80 cents for the full year is already completely priced into the stock price.</font><br>
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<font size=2>Both a double bottom and a cup can have handles. And I personally much prefer a horizontal handle with a very tight range to one that is drooping or is volatile.</font><br>
