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2001-06-07
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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1455
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
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X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Friday, June 8 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1455
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] DJ Utilities Index
Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days
Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 7 Jun 2001 22:16:25 -0700
From: "Ian" <ianstm@home.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DJ Utilities Index
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Tom:
I realize that this is unscientific ... but I watch many pages of stocks =
each day, and today/yesterday were the first time that I have noticed =
highly visible 'rotation' in quite a while. I have no idea why, but it =
looked as if folks were rotating out of oil/gas/utility and buying =
bloated tech.
Several of the oil/gas plays I like have broken down technically in the =
past 2 days. Interesting ... just as companies like FTO are announcing =
mind-blowing quarters (I doubt that BRCM will ever earn $3/share for the =
life of the company, let alone in 1 quarter :).
Anyhow, my 2 cents is that people need funds to buy up the bloated tech =
and join in the current manic short squeeze thats happening - so they're =
selling utilities to get the money???
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 8:16 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DJ Utilities Index
I am still looking for answers (or even ideas, thoughts, theories) on =
this issue. Today's volume was even greater than the past two days, and =
this index was down another 0.8%.
Did manage to close above its low of the day, just slightly into the =
lower half of the day's range.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: CANSLIM=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 7:28 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] DJ Utilities Index
Did I miss something regarding the Utilities groups?
Noticed this morning that this index was hit with heavy selling for =
the second day, down about 3% for Wednesday alone. Volume about twice =
normal. Scrolled thru all the stocks in the index. The two biggest (EXC, =
D) are each about 10% of the index, and both down hard on well over =
double ADV. But so were almost all the others as well.
Anybody got an explanation? Is big money finally scaling out of =
utilities?
If so, where is it going, bonds or stocks? Or something else?
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.3314.2100" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Tom:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I realize that this is unscientific ... but I watch =
many pages=20
of stocks each day, and today/yesterday were the first time that I have =
noticed=20
highly visible 'rotation' in quite a while. I have no idea why, but it =
looked as=20
if folks were rotating out of oil/gas/utility and buying bloated=20
tech.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Several of the oil/gas plays I like have broken down =
technically in the past 2 days. Interesting ... just as companies like =
FTO are=20
announcing mind-blowing quarters (I doubt that BRCM will ever earn =
$3/share for=20
the life of the company, let alone in 1 quarter :).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Anyhow, my 2 cents is that people need funds to buy =
up the=20
bloated tech and join in the current manic short squeeze thats happening =
- - so=20
they're selling utilities to get the money???</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net" title=3Dstkguru@netside.net>Tom =
Worley</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, 2001 =
8:16=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] DJ =
Utilities=20
Index</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I am still looking for answers (or even ideas, =
thoughts,=20
theories) on this issue. Today's volume was even greater than the past =
two=20
days, and this index was down another 0.8%.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Did manage to close above its low of the day, just =
slightly=20
into the lower half of the day's range.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net" =
title=3Dstkguru@netside.net>Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@xmission.com" =
title=3Dcanslim@xmission.com>CANSLIM</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, 2001 =
7:28=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] DJ =
Utilities=20
Index</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Did I miss something regarding the Utilities=20
groups?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Noticed this morning that this index was hit =
with heavy=20
selling for the second day, down about 3% for Wednesday alone. =
Volume about=20
twice normal. Scrolled thru all the stocks in the index. The two =
biggest=20
(EXC, D) are each about 10% of the index, and both down hard on well =
over=20
double ADV. But so were almost all the others as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Anybody got an explanation? Is big money finally =
scaling=20
out of utilities?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>If so, where is it going, bonds or stocks? Or =
something=20
else?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 7 Jun 2001 22:19:38 -0700
From: "Ian" <ianstm@home.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
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I have to ask - how many out of a hundred do you expect to go up several =
hundred percent (whether or not they were sold prematurely)?
I must admit, there is no way I would be comfortable being stopped me =
out of 7 or 8 trades out of every 10 - I would tighten my criteria =
considerably. JMHO.
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 8:28 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
Hi Norman,
Be careful about abandoning the 7-8% stop loss rule, it is valid and =
time tested. When WON first started building all his rules, he used =
10%, and found that he was losing too much money when he was wrong. =
Eventually, he ended up at 8%. But he also says that you should not =
average an 8% loss when you are wrong, you should be exiting some of =
them even before your stop is hit. So your average should be more like 5 =
or 6% when you are wrong.
If you are finding that an 8% stop loss on your entry is stopping you =
out too often on stocks that subsequently take off from just below your =
stop price, then you need to work on your entry, not expand your stop =
loss percentage.
With CANSLIM, you can only expect to be right about 2 or 3 times out =
of 10. So long as you keep your losses tight when you are wrong, then =
the ones that work will still give you net profits. But if you start =
taking 10% or so losses consistently, then the few that work have too =
much loss to overcome unless you hit a major winner.
And in my opinion, if you get a major winner more than once or twice =
out of a hundred, you're either very good or very lucky (and I define a =
major winner as one that goes up several hundred percent before you =
sell).
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Norman=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 11:05 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
I like that point Tom. I am new to canslim and stocks in general, =
but it sure makes sense to set the s/l just below the support level. =
Having been stopped out of numerous stocks recently, some that only =
dipped briefly and then went on to new highs quickly (i.e. FEIC) , I =
have abandoned the arbitrary 7-8%. I now use a point just under the =
support level, if it is close by. I don't want to set my stop more than =
12-13% below my purchase but to set a stop just a couple of % points =
above a support level seems silly; at least in this market.
Norman
----- Original Message -----=20
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 8:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops=20
> If I have bot a stock correctly, on a valid breakout, but it
> fails to maintain that breakout, I continue my original mental
> stop loss. I want my entry point to be such that a stop of 7-8%
> will be under the base. If I have done this, then a return to the
> base still does not trigger the stop.
>=20
> I don't view a failed breakout, BY ITSELF, as a reason for
> selling, thus don't want my stop hit.
>=20
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> AIM: TexWorley
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.3314.2100" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I have to ask - how many out of a hundred do =
you expect=20
to go up several hundred percent (whether or not they were sold=20
prematurely)?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I must admit, there is no way I would be =
comfortable=20
being stopped me out of 7 or 8 trades out of every 10 - I would tighten =
my=20
criteria considerably. JMHO.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net" title=3Dstkguru@netside.net>Tom =
Worley</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, 2001 =
8:28=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% =
stops -=20
edited for brevity</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi Norman,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Be careful about abandoning the 7-8% stop loss =
rule, it is=20
valid and time tested. When WON first started building all his =
rules, he=20
used 10%, and found that he was losing too much money when he was =
wrong.=20
Eventually, he ended up at 8%. But he also says that you should not =
average an=20
8% loss when you are wrong, you should be exiting some of them even =
before=20
your stop is hit. So your average should be more like 5 or 6% when you =
are=20
wrong.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>If you are finding that an 8% stop loss on your =
entry is=20
stopping you out too often on stocks that subsequently take off from =
just=20
below your stop price, then you need to work on your entry, not expand =
your=20
stop loss percentage.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>With CANSLIM, you can only expect to be right =
about 2 or 3=20
times out of 10. So long as you keep your losses tight when you =
are=20
wrong, then the ones that work will still give you net profits. =
But if=20
you start taking 10% or so losses consistently, then the few that work =
have=20
too much loss to overcome unless you hit a major winner.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>And in my opinion, if you get a major winner more =
than once=20
or twice out of a hundred, you're either very good or very lucky (and =
I define=20
a major winner as one that goes up several hundred percent before you=20
sell).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:theboyd@tisd.net" =
title=3Dtheboyd@tisd.net>Norman</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, 2001 =
11:05=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% =
stops -=20
edited for brevity</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I like that point Tom. I am new to canslim and stocks in =
general,=20
but it sure makes sense to set the s/l just below the support =
level. =20
Having been stopped out of numerous stocks recently, some that only =
dipped=20
briefly and then went on to new highs quickly (i.e. FEIC) , I have =
abandoned=20
the arbitrary 7-8%. I now use a point just under the support =
level, if=20
it is close by. I don't want to set my stop more than 12-13% =
below my=20
purchase but to set a stop just a couple of % points above a support =
level=20
seems silly; at least in this market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Norman</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV>From: "Tom Worley" <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A>></DIV>
<DIV>To: <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
></DIV>
<DIV>Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 8:14 AM</DIV>
<DIV>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops </DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>> If I have bot a stock correctly, on a valid =
breakout,=20
but it<BR>> fails to maintain that breakout, I continue my =
original=20
mental<BR>> stop loss. <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>I want my =
entry point=20
to be such that a stop of 7-8%<BR>> will be under the=20
base.</STRONG></FONT> If I have done this, then a return to =
the<BR>> base=20
still does not trigger the stop.<BR>> <BR>> I don't view a =
failed=20
breakout, BY ITSELF, as a reason for<BR>> selling, thus don't =
want my=20
stop hit.<BR>> <BR>> Tom Worley<BR>> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>> =
AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 8 Jun 2001 07:14:31 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
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Seems this is even more complicated than I realized.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, June 08, 2001 1:03 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days
5/22 was mentioned as a distribution day in one of the 'Big Picture' =
summaries within IBD last week (Thursday May 31 issue I think). I =
suspect it is because the index actually closed from from its gap open =
on higher volume. I.e., the volume brought prices down - it didn't push =
them up.
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 7:35 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days
Doug,
Both you and David see 5/22 as distributional, which is confusing =
me. How can it be distributional, when the index not only closed up, but =
on slightly greater volume?
Or is the data at DGO wrong?
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Doug Shannon=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 10:25 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days
I agree. 5/22 was basically flat for the day on very fast trade. =
Vol. was higher than the day before and above average. =20
=20
I see 2 distribution days on above average trade on the Nasdaq in =
the last 3 weeks: 5/22 and 5/30.
=20
Doug
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of David Squires
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 10:10 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days
NASDAQ had an important dist. day on 5-22.
=20
Dsquires
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Doug Shannon=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 8:48 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days
=20
=20
I am probably over simplifying the issue, but trying to =
understand it better, and pay a little more attention. So looking for =
some educating and advice from those that understand the topic better.
If I essentially ignore completely down days where the =
volume was less than ADV, then I find the following since April 1:
NASDAQ - distribution 4/3, 4/26, 5/30 - yesterday clearly by =
any definition is not distributional as volume failed to beat the prior =
day, which was up. And 4/3, and possibly 4/26, seem too old to be =
meaningful
NYSE Composite - 4/24, 4/30, 5/2, 5/22 appear =
distributional. Again yesterday was not due lighter volume
DOW 30 - 4/11, 6/6 distributional
Russell 2000 - 4/3, 5/30 distributional
S&P 500 - 4/3, 4/4, 4/30, 5/22, 5/30 distributional
The questions I have:
Is this approach too simplistic? Can I simply ignore down =
days where volume is less than ADV? No, your analysis is quite good. =
I, too would ignore down days on lighter volume. Those days are clearly =
not distributional.=20
Is this summary essentially accurate? yes=20
How far back in time to you have to consider? What restarts =
the counting from zero? I don't think in terms of ever re-starting the =
count. I just look for at least 4+ days of distribution in any 2-3 week =
period, The only time I would consider a distribution day where vol. =
was less than ADV is if the price action is wide and loose.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Seems this is even more complicated than I=20
realized.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:ianstm@home.com" title=3Dianstm@home.com>Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, June 08, 2001 =
1:03 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Distribution=20
Days</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>5/22 was mentioned as a distribution day in =
one of the=20
'Big Picture' summaries within IBD last week (Thursday May 31 issue I =
think).=20
I suspect it is because the index actually closed from from its gap =
open on=20
higher volume. I.e., the volume brought prices down - it didn't push =
them=20
up.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net" =
title=3Dstkguru@netside.net>Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, 2001 =
7:35=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Distribution=20
Days</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Doug,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Both you and David see 5/22 as distributional, =
which is=20
confusing me. How can it be distributional, when the index not only =
closed=20
up, but on slightly greater volume?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Or is the data at DGO wrong?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:dshannon@austin.rr.com" =
title=3Ddshannon@austin.rr.com>Doug=20
Shannon</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, =
2001 10:25=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
Distribution=20
Days</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D903172314-07062001><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2>I agree. 5/22 was basically flat for the day on =
very fast=20
trade. Vol. was higher than the day before and above =
average. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D903172314-07062001><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D903172314-07062001><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2>I see 2 distribution days on above average trade on the =
Nasdaq in=20
the last 3 weeks: 5/22 and 5/30.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D903172314-07062001><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D903172314-07062001><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2>Doug</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A>=20
[<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">mailto:owner-canslim@lis=
ts.xmission.com</A>]<B>On=20
Behalf Of </B>David Squires<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, =
2001=20
10:10 AM<BR><B>To:</B> =
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re:=20
[CANSLIM] Distribution Days<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>NASDAQ had an important dist. day on=20
5-22.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Dsquires</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:dshannon@austin.rr.com"=20
title=3Ddshannon@austin.rr.com>Doug Shannon</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
=
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June =
07, 2001=20
8:48 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM]=20
Distribution Days</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader =
dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2><BR><BR></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I am probably over simplifying the =
issue, but=20
trying to understand it better, and pay a little more =
attention. So=20
looking for some educating and advice from those that =
understand the=20
topic better.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>If I essentially ignore completely down =
days where=20
the volume was less than ADV, then I find the following =
since April=20
1:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>NASDAQ - distribution 4/3, 4/26, 5/30 - =
yesterday=20
clearly by any definition is not distributional as volume =
failed to=20
beat the prior day, which was up. And 4/3, and possibly =
4/26, seem=20
too old to be meaningful</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>NYSE Composite - 4/24, 4/30, 5/2, 5/22 =
appear=20
distributional. Again yesterday was not due lighter=20
volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>DOW 30 - 4/11, 6/6 =
distributional</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Russell 2000 - 4/3, 5/30=20
distributional</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>S&P 500 - 4/3, 4/4, 4/30, 5/22, 5/30 =
distributional</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The questions I have:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Is this approach too simplistic? Can I =
simply=20
ignore down days where volume is less than ADV?<SPAN=20
class=3D741374313-07062001><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
face=3DArial> No,=20
your analysis is quite good. I, too would ignore =
down=20
days on lighter volume. Those days are clearly not=20
distributional. </FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Is this summary essentially =
accurate?<SPAN=20
class=3D741374313-07062001><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
face=3DArial> =20
yes </FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>How far back in time to you have to =
consider? What=20
restarts the counting from zero?<SPAN =
class=3D741374313-07062001><FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial> I don't think in =
terms of ever=20
re-starting the count. I just look for at least 4+ =
days of=20
distribution in any 2-3 week period, The only =
time I=20
would consider a distribution day where vol. was less than =
ADV is if=20
the price action is wide and =
loose.</FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
=
TexWorley<BR></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQ=
UOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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- -
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- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 8 Jun 2001 06:18:34 -0500
From: "Norman" <theboyd@tisd.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0029_01C0EFE2.D8F053D0
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Point taken, Tom. And your right. If all those stopped-out positions =
were 10% instead of 7-8 my crying towel would be a lot wetter.
Norm
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 10:28 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
Hi Norman,
Be careful about abandoning the 7-8% stop loss rule, it is valid and =
time tested. When WON first started building all his rules, he used =
10%, and found that he was losing too much money when he was wrong. =
Eventually, he ended up at 8%. But he also says that you should not =
average an 8% loss when you are wrong, you should be exiting some of =
them even before your stop is hit. So your average should be more like 5 =
or 6% when you are wrong.
If you are finding that an 8% stop loss on your entry is stopping you =
out too often on stocks that subsequently take off from just below your =
stop price, then you need to work on your entry, not expand your stop =
loss percentage.
With CANSLIM, you can only expect to be right about 2 or 3 times out =
of 10. So long as you keep your losses tight when you are wrong, then =
the ones that work will still give you net profits. But if you start =
taking 10% or so losses consistently, then the few that work have too =
much loss to overcome unless you hit a major winner.
And in my opinion, if you get a major winner more than once or twice =
out of a hundred, you're either very good or very lucky (and I define a =
major winner as one that goes up several hundred percent before you =
sell).
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Norman=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2001 11:05 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops - edited for brevity
I like that point Tom. I am new to canslim and stocks in general, =
but it sure makes sense to set the s/l just below the support level. =
Having been stopped out of numerous stocks recently, some that only =
dipped briefly and then went on to new highs quickly (i.e. FEIC) , I =
have abandoned the arbitrary 7-8%. I now use a point just under the =
support level, if it is close by. I don't want to set my stop more than =
12-13% below my purchase but to set a stop just a couple of % points =
above a support level seems silly; at least in this market.
Norman
----- Original Message -----=20
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 8:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops=20
> If I have bot a stock correctly, on a valid breakout, but it
> fails to maintain that breakout, I continue my original mental
> stop loss. I want my entry point to be such that a stop of 7-8%
> will be under the base. If I have done this, then a return to the
> base still does not trigger the stop.
>=20
> I don't view a failed breakout, BY ITSELF, as a reason for
> selling, thus don't want my stop hit.
>=20
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> AIM: TexWorley
- ------=_NextPart_000_0029_01C0EFE2.D8F053D0
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<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4522.1800" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Point taken, Tom. And your right. If all those =
stopped-out=20
positions were 10% instead of 7-8 my crying towel would be a lot =
wetter.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Norm</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom =
Worley</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, 2001 =
10:28=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% =
stops -=20
edited for brevity</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi Norman,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Be careful about abandoning the 7-8% stop loss =
rule, it is=20
valid and time tested. When WON first started building all his =
rules, he=20
used 10%, and found that he was losing too much money when he was =
wrong.=20
Eventually, he ended up at 8%. But he also says that you should not =
average an=20
8% loss when you are wrong, you should be exiting some of them even =
before=20
your stop is hit. So your average should be more like 5 or 6% when you =
are=20
wrong.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>If you are finding that an 8% stop loss on your =
entry is=20
stopping you out too often on stocks that subsequently take off from =
just=20
below your stop price, then you need to work on your entry, not expand =
your=20
stop loss percentage.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>With CANSLIM, you can only expect to be right =
about 2 or 3=20
times out of 10. So long as you keep your losses tight when you =
are=20
wrong, then the ones that work will still give you net profits. =
But if=20
you start taking 10% or so losses consistently, then the few that work =
have=20
too much loss to overcome unless you hit a major winner.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>And in my opinion, if you get a major winner more =
than once=20
or twice out of a hundred, you're either very good or very lucky (and =
I define=20
a major winner as one that goes up several hundred percent before you=20
sell).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dtheboyd@tisd.net =
href=3D"mailto:theboyd@tisd.net">Norman</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 07, 2001 =
11:05=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% =
stops -=20
edited for brevity</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I like that point Tom. I am new to canslim and stocks in =
general,=20
but it sure makes sense to set the s/l just below the support =
level. =20
Having been stopped out of numerous stocks recently, some that only =
dipped=20
briefly and then went on to new highs quickly (i.e. FEIC) , I have =
abandoned=20
the arbitrary 7-8%. I now use a point just under the support =
level, if=20
it is close by. I don't want to set my stop more than 12-13% =
below my=20
purchase but to set a stop just a couple of % points above a support =
level=20
seems silly; at least in this market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Norman</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV>From: "Tom Worley" <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A>></DIV>
<DIV>To: <<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
></DIV>
<DIV>Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2001 8:14 AM</DIV>
<DIV>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 7-8% stops </DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>> If I have bot a stock correctly, on a valid =
breakout,=20
but it<BR>> fails to maintain that breakout, I continue my =
original=20
mental<BR>> stop loss. <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>I want my =
entry point=20
to be such that a stop of 7-8%<BR>> will be under the=20
base.</STRONG></FONT> If I have done this, then a return to =
the<BR>> base=20
still does not trigger the stop.<BR>> <BR>> I don't view a =
failed=20
breakout, BY ITSELF, as a reason for<BR>> selling, thus don't =
want my=20
stop hit.<BR>> <BR>> Tom Worley<BR>> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>> =
AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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------------------------------
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