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Internet Message Format | 2001-03-21 | 41KB

From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1222 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, March 22 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1222 In this issue: [CANSLIM] "m" as in CANSLIm [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me RE: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me Re: [CANSLIM] Cross posted from another list Re: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me Re: [CANSLIM] Q: mutual funds [CANSLIM] Market Bug Re: [CANSLIM] Market Bug RE: [CANSLIM] Market Bug [CANSLIM] Capitulation Re: [CANSLIM] Capitulation Re: [CANSLIM] Capitulation [CANSLIM] FFD chart Re: [CANSLIM] Capitulation RE: [CANSLIM] FFD chart ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 07:03:23 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "m" as in CANSLIm This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C0B29E.2FD5EDE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I am using a little "m" because it's getting so ugly (and small) I hate = to even look at it. NYSE futures are still down a percent, Naz futures were down over 1% = earlier, and still down nearly a half percent. Very short term trend at = the moment is positive. Asia got hammered, even Japan, and Europe is not moderating the damage = for a change. Most exchanges are down over 2%, Germany down 3%. In the = Mideast, Israel (heavy on techs and biotechs) down nearly 2.5%. Looks like we will undercut (again!!) on Naz, taking out psychological = support at 1800. I am starting to believe some of the forecasts of a = month or so ago of Naz at 1500. RS trendline still down, volume over = daily average. DOW severely undercut as well yesterday, and closed nearly at the low of = the day. NYSE Composite also undercut, but RS trendline against the S&P500 = remains upward. Just means the S&P is falling faster than the Composite. = Stay away from big cap, blue chips, maybe? NYSE Financials did not quite undercut, but is poised to do so today, = especially if any more brokerage houses pre-announce an earnings = warning. NYSE Transportation is stable, which is mildly encouraging. Should an = uptrend develop there, it would suggest to me the economy is picking up. NYSE Utilities is not improving, so where's all the money (if any) that = is still fleeing the stock market going? My best guess would be money = markets, suggesting it only plans a brief exit. Hoard your cash, keep your powder dry, there will be an end to this = (someday), just no reliable way that I know of to predict when or at = what level it may happen. Mutual funds have just six shopping days left = to do their window dressing. I am not counting on that being of much = help, however. Geezz, and this is supposed to be fun and profitable!! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C0B29E.2FD5EDE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" = http-equiv=3DContent-Type> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>I am using a little "m" because it's getting so ugly = (and=20 small) I hate to even look at it.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NYSE futures are still down a percent, Naz futures = were down=20 over 1% earlier, and still down nearly a half percent. Very short term = trend at=20 the moment is positive.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Asia got hammered, even Japan, and Europe is not = moderating=20 the damage for a change. Most exchanges are down over 2%, Germany down = 3%. In=20 the Mideast, Israel (heavy on techs and biotechs) down nearly = 2.5%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Looks like we will undercut (again!!) on Naz, taking = out=20 psychological support at 1800. I am starting to believe some of the = forecasts of=20 a month or so ago of Naz at 1500. RS trendline still down, volume over = daily=20 average.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>DOW severely undercut as well yesterday, and closed = nearly at=20 the low of the day.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NYSE Composite also undercut, but RS trendline = against the=20 S&P500 remains upward. Just means the S&P is falling faster than = the=20 Composite. Stay away from big cap, blue chips, maybe?</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NYSE Financials did not quite undercut, but is = poised to do so=20 today, especially if any more brokerage houses pre-announce an earnings=20 warning.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NYSE Transportation is stable, which is mildly = encouraging.=20 Should an uptrend develop there, it would suggest to me the economy is = picking=20 up.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NYSE Utilities is not improving, so where's all the = money (if=20 any) that is still fleeing the stock market going? My best guess = would be=20 money markets, suggesting it only plans a brief exit.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hoard your cash, keep your powder dry, there will be = an end to=20 this (someday), just no reliable way that I know of to predict when or = at what=20 level it may happen. Mutual funds have just six shopping days left to do = their=20 window dressing. I am not counting on that being of much help,=20 however.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Geezz, and this is supposed to be fun and=20 profitable!!</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ #=20 5568838</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C0B29E.2FD5EDE0-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 07:42:33 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C0B2A3.A84FF680 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Sorry about the dup, had a problem with my ISP's email server. Spank = that bad boy. Right after I sent it, Naz futures dropped again, now down nearly 1.5%. = Can we all say VOLATILE?? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C0B2A3.A84FF680 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" = http-equiv=3DContent-Type> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Sorry about the dup, had a problem with my ISP's = email server.=20 Spank that bad boy.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Right after I sent it, Naz futures dropped again, = now down=20 nearly 1.5%. Can we all say VOLATILE??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ #=20 5568838</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C0B2A3.A84FF680-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 08:26:46 -0500 From: Surindra <surindra@virginia.edu> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C0B2A9.D57F97E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Fast mooving Naz is up now.... -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 7:43 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me Sorry about the dup, had a problem with my ISP's email server. Spank that bad boy. Right after I sent it, Naz futures dropped again, now down nearly 1.5%. Can we all say VOLATILE?? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C0B2A9.D57F97E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><SPAN class=3D310022613-22032001><FONT size=3D2>Fast mooving Naz is = up=20 now....</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Tom=20 Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, March 22, 2001 7:43 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20 CANSLIM<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from=20 me<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Sorry about the dup, had a problem with my ISP's = email=20 server. Spank that bad boy.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Right after I sent it, Naz futures dropped again, = now down=20 nearly 1.5%. Can we all say VOLATILE??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ #=20 5568838</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C0B2A9.D57F97E0-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 08:32:58 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cross posted from another list Hi Dan, The function of FOMC is to control the economy, and all aspects related to it. This is not the same as the Federal Reserve's responsibilities for liquidity. While Greenspan is two-hatted, he has a different mission in each area. The Federal Reserve, not FOMC, establishes margin requirements on stocks. Because of the high volatility on most dot com stocks, over the past two years most firms increased the margin requirements for them above the minimums set by the Fed Reserve. I suspect this action was sufficient for the Fed Reserve to feel it did not need to intervene further. One thing that was most clear last Tuesday is that Mr. G recognizes that his role is to manage the economy, not the stock market. Had he been attempting to control the stock market, and re-establish the wealth effect, then he would have insisted on a cut of at least 75 BP, and maybe even a full %. Of course, had he done a full %, and maybe even 75 BP, the airhead commentators would have focused on how bad things must be, and only the Feds realize it. Frankly, I am at a loss to come up with any suggestions on how to improve the personal spending habits, and savings habits, of citizens in a free country. Perhaps a public education program, such as has been done on the issue of smoking or drug abuse. The citizens of the USA are among the worst for saving money in the world. Presently the rate is negative. It's one reason I maintain a long term position in a company selling software to bankruptcy trustees. Bankruptcy is a solid growth industry, that only gets better in bad economic times. But it did well even in the good times. However, this is not the function or responsibility of FOMC. Had they raised rates to "punish" those abusing their credit, they would also have punished corporations and individuals using credit responsibly. And, of course, they would have stifled economic growth years ago, contrary to their mandate to manage. The process is usually self correcting, either thru personal bankruptcy, or thru outrage at the interest rates being paid on credit cards. We saw both about three years ago, when rates were around 17 or 18%. People just started cutting up the cards, and paying off the balances. We still see this today at financial sites like Motley Fool, where they exhort people to pay off high interest debt before thinking about investing. After all, it's a guaranteed return even now of about 12%, and that's pretty attractive. Mr. G was sharply criticized when he tried to "jawbone" the bubble out of dot coms and techs stocks with his famous "euphoria" comment. Kinda funny now that the commentators criticize him for failing to control the bubble, when that is not even his responsibility. Where's the media's responsibility in all this, they were the ones telling new investors to put money into the market and make a profit, to listen to some, it was practically assured. Two years ago, at the height of the dot com bubble, I don't recall any analysts or market commentators warning that these companies were all start ups, limited management experience, no earnings and only minor revenues (look at ETYS for just one monstrous example, went public with a market cap greater than ToysRUs, and now bankrupt). But it's easier for the media to blame a govt employee, than to accept any social responsibility for themselves. The stock market is first and foremost a "free market". It should not, and cannot, be controlled by an individual or a govt agency. It must correct itself. Part of that process is ongoing, but so long as we are wedded to vested interests (media commentators are there to shock and attract viewers in order to sell advertising time, wirehouse analysts are there to generate activity and protect the interests of the wirehouse, wirehouses downgrading a stock to a "hold" when what they really mean is "dump that dog as fast as you can enter the sell order"), even reasonably respected journals such as WSJ or IBD must still sell ad space to survive. I remember the early days of IBD (then Investors Daily) when there was virtually no ads, and never an ad from a company that might be a competitor (e.g. stock screening services, investment letters, brokerage houses, etc). It's quite different now that they have built up a subscriber base, and must generate revenues to cover costs. It's a harsh world in the stock market, but there will always be investors (including institutional money managers) who are willing to park money in a speculative stock in the belief / expectation that it will make a profit "someday" (e.g. Amazon, how many years now have we been promised profits?). The beauty of CANSLIM is that you can combine what a company is really achieving (fundamentals) with what the market is thinking (momentum) and make money off the combination. Let's not blame Mr. G for what is going on right now. He, and FOMC, are after all only human, and they are trying to anticipate and project what will happen economically many months in the future. There are many factors far beyond their control, including consumer spending and debt levels, but also things like oil production quotas and pricing, that are beyond both their control and predictability. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Dan <dcash@compuall.net> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 11:36 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Cross posted from another list I wish I was more knowledgeable of Economics to be able to better put this in some frame of reference generally . Specifically, about midway down the column, he speaks of three areas of failures by the Fed. One I wonder about is the failure to squelch the internet, tech, bubble. This seems to me, to be outside the purview and responsibilities of the Fed. Anyone have thoughts about the article? - --------------------------------------------------- http://www.thestreet.com/p/comment/galbraith/1354492.html It's Too Late Now By James K. Galbraith Special to TheStreet.com 3/21/01 12:41 PM ET Let me confess to minor sympathy for Brother Greenspan. There was nothing he could have done Tuesday to stop the onrushing slump. The pathetic action he took was merely a shrug, a sigh of resignation and impotence. If you doubt this, ask yourself: Suppose the cut had been 75 basis points? Do you think that would have sparked a rally? Do you really believe that the distance separating a slump from a rally was 25 lousy basis points? Or rather, to be precise, that it was the difference between 25 basis points now and the same 25 basis points in two or three weeks? Of course not. Next, suppose the cuts had been, say, 100 basis points or more. Would the markets have shouted hallelujah then? Would such a cut have jump- started consumer confidence? Would it have revived the tech sector? Or would we have inferred that the news reaching the Fed is worse than we knew? The point is, it's too late. This slump has three deep causes. The first is the build-up of private debts, mainly households, to new highs. The second was the tech bubble, fueled in part by capital inflow, funneled into one narrow sector of the markets. Third, let's be candid, was the last administration's single-minded pursuit of public debt reduction -- a goal achievable in a growing economy only if private debts are going up very fast. The Fed failed to take any steps to control these developments. It failed to discourage excessive household borrowing, particularly unsecured credits. It failed miserably to squelch the Nasdaq bubble, which it could have done on its own authority by raising the margin requirement. It went along with the debt reduction charade -- until just as cravenly switching over to the tax reduction charade last month. And it attacked the debt pile-up at the most vulnerable point in 1999-2000, by jacking up interest rates in what it said -- incredibly -- was a defense against inflation! When households reach historic limits of debt carriage -- and interest rates rise -- they tend to stop borrowing. When a stock bubble pops, the firms feeding on it run out of money after a while. These things have happened. Now, they must run their course. We will need to wait until cars and appliances age, until people have weddings, children, divorces, or deaths in the family, and decide to move to new houses. Only then -- a year or more from now -- will the urge to borrow return. Then, a cut in interest rates might do something. In the meantime, hold on to your hats. - ----------------------------------------------------------------- - -- James K. Galbraith is author of Created Unequal: The Crisis in American Pay (Free Press, 1998) and director of the University of Texas Inequality Project. A professor at the University of Texas at Austin and senior scholar at the Levy Economics Institute, he worked for many years on the staff of the House Banking Committee, where he conducted oversight of the Federal Reserve. He welcomes your feedback and invites you to send it to James K. Galbraith . - -- Dan http://www.globexplorer.com/cfviewer/start.cfm http://www.corazon.org/ - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 08:37:07 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0043_01C0B2AB.48065460 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Yeah, barely, but European markets (which trade many big cap US stocks) = are still down as much as before. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Surindra=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 8:26 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me Fast mooving Naz is up now.... -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 7:43 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] Duplicate email from me Sorry about the dup, had a problem with my ISP's email server. Spank = that bad boy. Right after I sent it, Naz futures dropped again, now down nearly = 1.5%. Can we all say VOLATILE?? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0043_01C0B2AB.48065460 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" = http-equiv=3DContent-Type> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Yeah, barely, but European markets (which trade many = big cap=20 US stocks) are still down as much as before.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ # = 5568838</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: = 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A href=3D"mailto:surindra@virginia.edu"=20 title=3Dsurindra@virginia.edu>Surindra</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20 title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> = </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, March 22, 2001 = 8:26=20 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] = Duplicate email=20 from me</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D310022613-22032001><FONT size=3D2>Fast mooving Naz = is up=20 now....</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com</A>=20 [<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">mailto:owner-canslim@lis= ts.xmission.com</A>]<B>On=20 Behalf Of </B>Tom Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, March 22, 2001 = 7:43=20 AM<BR><B>To:</B> CANSLIM<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Duplicate = email from=20 me<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Sorry about the dup, had a problem with my ISP's = email=20 server. Spank that bad boy.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Right after I sent it, Naz futures dropped = again, now down=20 nearly 1.5%. Can we all say VOLATILE??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ # = 5568838</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT = size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0043_01C0B2AB.48065460-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 09:42:31 -0600 From: "walter nusbaum" <wnusbaum@airmail.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Q: mutual funds - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Makara, Tamas" <t.makara@alarmix.net> To: "cs" <canslim@xmission.com> Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 6:48 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Q: mutual funds > Aren't you concerned about your equity mutual funds? Are you practicing > buy and hold with your funds while you adhere stops in your Canslim > accounts and know enough to wait out a bear market in cash? > > I have no money in equity funds and haven't had for a while. > > Regards, Tamas > > PS. I know WON's take on this: you should be buy and holders with your > funds. I'm more interested in the list members attitude, Tamas, This is one area where WON and I part company. IMHO, his recommendation to B&H 1-3 growth funds forever does not optimize returns. I like to be 100% invested, but prefer momentum plays. I maintain a watch list of about 50 funds and compare them weekly on the basis of their past three weeks performance. I usually have 3-5 funds at any given time. My best yearly return was 89% in '99, lost 19% in '00, and am down about 24% YTD. The losses were caused by my own stupidity for not staying with the system. Instead of eschewing the techs in favor of financials, health care, etc., I sold the poorer performing techs and attempted to trade via WON's "M" system. After several failed FT days, I went to 100% cash. I should have heeded WON's advice and waited until the indexes, or at least the one I usually trade, to return above its 200 dma before attempting to go long. I have found by using dual ma's of 20 & 200(weekly chart), false spikes above and below the 200 are avoided with minimal whipsaws. Further, for those dedicated B&H's, this simple dual ma indicator will take them out of bear markets before great damage is done, leaving them in a position to return to the same funds at a lower NAV. As an (extreme) example, one of my favorites, UOPIX(doubles the movement of the NAS 100), peaked at $141.00. Yesterday's NAV was $9.03. While I don't expect a return to its historical peak for several years, $50.00 would be just swell. Best wishes, Walt - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:59:22 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" <pwahl@prodigy.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Bug <color><param>0100,0100,0100</param>Whoever writes the commentary for Market Bug (Cedd Moses' site, but supposedly not written by Cedd) is thinking this is a capitulation day. Don't know myself, although the Dow can't continue this rate of decline for more than a few days at most, and the nasdaq has at least stopped going down for the moment. Here are the market bug comments - - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- {PRIVATE}<FontFamily><param>Times New Roman</param><bigger> </color><FontFamily><param>Arial</param>Quick notes here. Panic selling - very negative breadth - high volume and extremely high {HYPERLINK "http://mach.quote.com/quotecom/stocks/charts.asp?symbols=vix.x"}<underline><color><param>0000,0000,FF00</param>VIX</underline></color> (volatility index). All suggests that today is a capitulation day. This is what we need to wash out the weak sellers. While it could carry through to tomorrow, or even further out, much of today's action argues against waiting any further. It is particularly interesting that the Technology sector is holding up very well. After leading the market to the downside it appears washed out and is reversing higher now. The Semi-equipment group is particularly strong. Big fundamental news from Micron this morning is a significant catalyst to support strength in PC and Semiconductor stocks! . Micron ({HYPERLINK "http://mach.quote.com/quotecom/stocks/charts.asp?symbols=mu"}<underline><color><param>0000,0000,FF00</param>MU</underline></color>) said that the "inventory situation at PC makers appears to have corrected itself." This was the reason the group got killed, excess inventories. If that is of the way and interest rates are plummeting, then we have a new positive catalyst and a new positive cycle could be just ahead for these companies. The technical action in these stocks today also supports fundamental news. Blue chips are still down considerably today, but the Nasdaq just reversed higher. <color><param>0100,0100,0100</param><FontFamily><param>Times New Roman</param> <FontFamily><param>Arial</param><smaller>{HYPERLINK "mailto:BUG@MarketBUG.com"}<underline><color><param>0000,0000,FF00</param>BUG@MarketBUG.com</underline><color><param>0100,0100,0100</param> <nofill> - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:22:25 -0800 From: Tim Fisher <Tim@OreRockOn.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Bug 1. NYSE vol looks low to average. 2. I see no panic selling of NYSE stocks, nothing I watch is down more than 8%, none down on heavy vol. 3. This reads more like a plea for capitulation than documentation of the real thing. IMHO. On 09:59 AM 3/22/01, Patrick Wahl Said: >Whoever writes the commentary for Market Bug (Cedd Moses' site, but >supposedly not written by Cedd) is thinking this is a capitulation >day. Don't know myself, although the Dow can't continue this rate of >decline for more than a few days at most, and the nasdaq has at least >stopped going down for the moment. Here are the market bug comments - > >----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > >{PRIVATE} Quick notes here. >Panic selling - very negative breadth - high volume and extremely high >{HYPERLINK >"<http://mach.quote.com/quotecom/stocks/charts.asp?symbols=vix.x>http://mach.quote.com/quotecom/stocks/charts.asp?symbols=vix.x"}VIX >(volatility index). All suggests that today is a capitulation day. This is >what we need to wash out the weak sellers. While it could carry through to >tomorrow, or even further out, much of today's action argues against >waiting any further. >It is particularly interesting that the Technology sector is holding up >very well. After leading the market to the downside it appears washed out >and is reversing higher now. The Semi-equipment group is particularly strong. >Big fundamental news from Micron this morning is a significant catalyst to >support strength in PC and Semiconductor stocks! . Micron ({HYPERLINK >"<http://mach.quote.com/quotecom/stocks/charts.asp?symbols=mu>http://mach.quote.com/quotecom/stocks/charts.asp?symbols=mu"}MU) >said that the "inventory situation at PC makers appears to have corrected >itself." This was the reason the group got killed, excess inventories. If >that is of the way and interest rates are plummeting, then we have a new >positive catalyst and a new positive cycle could be just ahead for these >companies. The technical action in these stocks today also supports >fundamental news. >Blue chips are still down considerably today, but the Nasdaq just reversed >higher. {HYPERLINK >"<mailto:BUG@MarketBUG.com>mailto:BUG@MarketBUG.com"}BUG@MarketBUG.com > > > > >- > ></blockquote></x-html> Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 15:04:47 -0500 From: "Dave Rubin" <drubin@i-2000.com> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Market Bug Actually it seems NYSE volume is above average, already at 1.32B with still an hour to go. But it is certainly not at panic levels. Nasdaq volume is comparatively light. I do agree that this is no capitulation. I do not smell fear. I think DOW will need to go to 8999 before people really start to panic. > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 1:22 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Bug > > > 1. NYSE vol looks low to average. > 2. I see no panic selling of NYSE stocks, nothing I watch is down > more than > 8%, none down on heavy vol. > 3. This reads more like a plea for capitulation than documentation of the > real thing. IMHO. > > On 09:59 AM 3/22/01, Patrick Wahl Said: > >Whoever writes the commentary for Market Bug (Cedd Moses' site, but > >supposedly not written by Cedd) is thinking this is a capitulation > >day. Don't know myself, although the Dow can't continue this rate of > >decline for more than a few days at most, and the nasdaq has at least > >stopped going down for the moment. Here are the market bug comments - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 13:07:59 -0800 (PST) From: Steve F <stevepdv@yahoo.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] Capitulation Is it an absolute that there must be a 'capitulation' before the market bottoms out. Couldn't one describe what has been going on as a 'capitulation'. It seems to me that the funds are flush with money, and once we get past these few weeks of selling to pay income tax, the selling just might dry up. I do not expect to see a big bounce in the near future but I am hoping to see some stablity. Am I kidding myself? __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 13:28:41 -0800 From: Tim Fisher <Tim@OreRockOn.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Capitulation AFAIK it is conventional wisdom. I no of no one who has backtested the relationship, let alone defined what "capitulation" and "panic selling" mean in terms of volatility, percent declines, volume, etc. BTW the following URL has some entertaining, but not necessarily useful, definitions of many market terms: http://investopedia.com/categories/buzzwords.asp On 01:07 PM 3/22/01, Steve F Said: >Is it an absolute that there must be a 'capitulation' >before the market bottoms out. Couldn't one describe >what has been going on as a 'capitulation'. It seems >to me that the funds are flush with money, and once we >get past these few weeks of selling to pay income tax, >the selling just might dry up. I do not expect to see >a big bounce in the near future but I am hoping to see >some stablity. > >Am I kidding myself? > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. >http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 22:15:32 +0100 From: "Makara, Tamas" <t.makara@alarmix.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Capitulation According to Justin Mamis, the best signs of a capitulation day are (or used to be): late tape, flash quotes due to the lateness of the tape, delayed openings and trading halts due to the imbalance of buying and selling. And of course, extreme volume. What is extreme volume? If you have to ask, it is not extreme yet. Also, from what I have read about market history, it is not always necessary to have a capitulation day. For example, final phases of primary downtrends are usually characterized by low volume, low volatility, and a total lack of public interest in the market -- not by capitulation. Anyway, what canslimers need is an abundance of good leadership stocks breaking out of sound bases and following through to the upside. This has nothing to do with capitulation days. Tamas Tim Fisher wrote: > AFAIK it is conventional wisdom. I no of no one who has backtested the > relationship, let alone defined what "capitulation" and "panic selling" > mean in terms of volatility, percent declines, volume, etc. > > BTW the following URL has some entertaining, but not necessarily useful, > definitions of many market terms: > http://investopedia.com/categories/buzzwords.asp > > On 01:07 PM 3/22/01, Steve F Said: > > >Is it an absolute that there must be a 'capitulation' > >before the market bottoms out. Couldn't one describe > >what has been going on as a 'capitulation'. It seems > >to me that the funds are flush with money, and once we > >get past these few weeks of selling to pay income tax, > >the selling just might dry up. I do not expect to see > >a big bounce in the near future but I am hoping to see > >some stablity. > > > >Am I kidding myself? > > > >__________________________________________________ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. > >http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 17:56:37 -0500 From: "Ann Hollingworth" <annholly@mediaone.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] FFD chart What does anyone make of this? Long and flat. Ann - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 16:11:21 -0700 From: esetser <esetser@covad.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Capitulation At 01:07 PM 3/22/01 -0800, you wrote: > >Is it an absolute that there must be a 'capitulation' >before the market bottoms out. No, IBD has repeatedly noted that some bear markets "flame out" while others just "wear you out" and end with little fanfare or action. Couldn't one describe >what has been going on as a 'capitulation'. It seems >to me that the funds are flush with money, and once we >get past these few weeks of selling to pay income tax, >the selling just might dry up. I do not expect to see >a big bounce in the near future but I am hoping to see >some stablity. > >Am I kidding myself? > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. >http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/ > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 15:15:30 -0800 From: "DiFabio, Nancy" <NDiFabio@irell.com> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] FFD chart This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C0B326.08FB432C Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit It's gorgeous; very tight and wants to break out. The IGR concerns me. Nancy - -----Original Message----- From: Ann Hollingworth [mailto:annholly@mediaone.net] Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 2:57 PM To: CANSLIM Listserv Subject: [CANSLIM] FFD chart What does anyone make of this? Long and flat. Ann - - "WorldSecure <irell.com>" made the following annotations on 03/22/01 15:16:52 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then delete it from your system. Thank you. ============================================================================== - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C0B326.08FB432C Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 3.2//EN"> <HTML> <HEAD> <META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <META NAME="Generator" CONTENT="MS Exchange Server version 5.5.2650.12"> <TITLE>RE: [CANSLIM] FFD chart</TITLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <P><FONT SIZE=2>It's gorgeous; very tight and wants to break out. The IGR concerns me.</FONT> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=2>Nancy</FONT> <BR><FONT SIZE=2>-----Original Message-----</FONT> <BR><FONT SIZE=2>From: Ann Hollingworth [<A HREF="mailto:annholly@mediaone.net">mailto:annholly@mediaone.net</A>]</FONT> <BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 2:57 PM</FONT> <BR><FONT SIZE=2>To: CANSLIM Listserv</FONT> <BR><FONT SIZE=2>Subject: [CANSLIM] FFD chart</FONT> </P> <BR> <P><FONT SIZE=2>What does anyone make of this? Long and flat.</FONT> </P> <P><FONT SIZE=2>Ann </FONT> </P> <BR> <P><FONT SIZE=2>-</FONT> </P> </BODY> </HTML> "WorldSecure <irell.com>" made the following<br> annotations on 03/22/01 15:16:52<br> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br> PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then delete it from your system. Thank you.<br> <br> <br> ==============================================================================<br> - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C0B326.08FB432C-- - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1222 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.