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2001-02-28
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From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest)
To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1165
Reply-To: canslim
Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com
Precedence: bulk
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-No-Archive: yes
canslim-digest Wednesday, February 28 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1165
In this issue:
[CANSLIM] Sold FRNT for 29.5 today -- how?
[CANSLIM] MAGI
Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil in IBD Monday.
Re: [CANSLIM] Relief Rally on Monday
Re: [CANSLIM] Selling Strategies
Re: [CANSLIM] Selling Strategies
Re: [CANSLIM] Relief Rally on Monday
Re: [CANSLIM] Sold FRNT for 29.5 today -- how?
Re: [CANSLIM] MAGI
[CANSLIM] Seeing a bottom?
Re: [CANSLIM] Seeing a bottom?
[CANSLIM] remove
Re: [CANSLIM] Seeing a bottom?
Re: [CANSLIM] Relief Rally on Monday
Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil in IBD Monday.
RE: [CANSLIM] RCII
[CANSLIM] Ashw-sell
RE: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell
BUCA, CLC (was Re: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 22:57:26 EST
From: Mhboatman@aol.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sold FRNT for 29.5 today -- how?
- --part1_13.1207491d.27cdd126_boundary
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Something happen to day I do not understand. Can someone please explain to
me what happened that allowed me to complete a sell order at 29.5 for FRNT?
I held a small position in FRNT -- only 50 shares. When the market opened
this morning it was already down to around 25 or so and heading south on big
time volume. I did not have a stop order in place -- would not have done any
good in this situation anyway. Around 10 EST I placed a sell order at
market. According to Datek's Streamer it was then below 24. E-Trade sold it
immediately for 29.5. That was a nice surpass -- but how could that be?
Today the market never traded above 26.625, according to Investors.com.
Net result was the sale wiped out my small gain but with little in the way of
loss.
Trying to learn in Minnesota.
- --part1_13.1207491d.27cdd126_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Something happen to day I do not understand. Can someone please explain to
<BR>me what happened that allowed me to complete a sell order at 29.5 for FRNT?
<BR>
<BR>I held a small position in FRNT -- only 50 shares. When the market opened
<BR>this morning it was already down to around 25 or so and heading south on big
<BR>time volume. I did not have a stop order in place -- would not have done any
<BR>good in this situation anyway. Around 10 EST I placed a sell order at
<BR>market. According to Datek's Streamer it was then below 24. E-Trade sold it
<BR>immediately for 29.5. That was a nice surpass -- but how could that be?
<BR>Today the market never traded above 26.625, according to Investors.com.
<BR>
<BR>Net result was the sale wiped out my small gain but with little in the way of
<BR>loss.
<BR>
<BR>Trying to learn in Minnesota.
<BR>
<BR></FONT></HTML>
- --part1_13.1207491d.27cdd126_boundary--
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 23:28:56 EST
From: Vanchee1@aol.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] MAGI
I generally do not like retail stocks, but am watching this one, might buy
some if it moves above 16 on at least a 50% increase in volume.
Chris.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 20:31:19 -0800
From: Dan <dcash@compuall.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil in IBD Monday.
We rapidly caught up and are now above normal in most of the state.
We do have a lot of southerly facing roof tops that we could put solar
cell and water heating on though. I think it would be a good investment
for tax and purchase incentives to interest people to install them. It
seems that it would be a lot less costly than building fossil fuel
plants.
Eric Shen wrote:
> Tom Worley wrote:
> >
> > There is also greater use of hydroelectric production, such as
> > the Canadians have done. By and large, it is a self sustaining
> > resource. Granted, environmental damage is done by constructing
> > the dams.
> >
> > Tom Worley
> > stkguru@netside.net
> > ICQ # 5568838
> >
>
> Too bad California is short on water in addition to electricity.
>
> I think nuclear would be the best way to go. Just need to develop
> some safe rockets to send the waste product to the sun.
>
> --
> Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 Intel Corporation
> email: eshen@level1.com 9750 Goethe Road
> Tel: (916) 855 5177 x4497 Sacramento, CA 95827
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 20:36:32 -0800
From: Dan <dcash@compuall.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Relief Rally on Monday
The "market" seems too large to be influenced by one sector to me. I
slip in to my condescending eye roll when those in the media come up
with some explanation, after the fact, that accounts for the move of the
day. Just doesn't seem to mean much. Oh, I know that there are exigent
circumstances that do cause moves, but overall, it seems that the market
is more like a river and we are either moving with it or against it.
It also seems to me that an interest rate cut might not change the
direction of flow for awhile; maybe we will get a pop up though, but I
surely would not be surprised that it keeps going as it has been for the
last few months. Perhaps the market is really tied to earnings after
all and when they improve so will the direction of the market. I heard
or read lately, that there are a lot more companies than usual are
warning and going to warn next cycle.
I am myopic and not learned in the ways of economics, just how it feels
to me.
Tom Worley wrote:
> And today demonstrated just what, at least on Nasdaq, can happen
> when the relief rally is lukewarm on volume.
>
> BTW, one of the excuses for today is the sharp decline in new
> home sales. Rather funny, as the airheads talked about this
> industry "cratering". Historically, in a declining (or
> anticipated to decline) interest rate environment, new home (and
> existing home) buyers hold off closing the deal in hopes of
> getting an even better interest rate on mortgages. I know this,
> and expected a decline in home sales. How come the commentators
> don't know this well known historic trend? Sales pick up sharply
> when the expectation is for rates to rise, as buyers rush to
> close deals and lock in rates.
>
> FWIW, Wayne Angell, an economist at Bear Stearns whose
> presentations I have listened to many times and respect (and is a
> former Fed Governor) has predicted an 80% probability that the
> Feds will cut this week, before the March 20 meeting. And Mr. G
> speaks to Congress tomorrow. Watch for clues.
>
> I will also admit that the latest economic reports are uglier
> than I expected, and are more likely to force the Feds' hand with
> a pre-meeting rate cut. Best indications I hear are for 50 bp,
> and a 1.5% cut in two months sounds like an emergency "all back
> full" to prevent wholesale recession.
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> ICQ # 5568838
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <Spencer48@aol.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 2:21 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Relief Rally on Monday
>
> Tom:
>
> Actually the NYSE looks as it has made a triple bottom-in
> mid-April,
> last Oct. and now.
> We seem to be getting a mixed picture. RS seems very
> strong, but volume
> on the rises see tepid.
>
> jans
>
> -
>
> -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 20:39:12 -0800 (PST)
From: John <jokguger@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Selling Strategies
Hi Richard, thank for replying. I appreciate it.
I look at the charts of the stocks that I own, every
night. I went back and looked at the chart after I
read your message (and Ricardo's). I don't think that
I would have considered a gap that small in the middle
of a fairly well defined channel to be of any
significance -- perhaps I should. Re-reading (today)
Won's applicable rule, he is looking for something
like a two-point gap after a rapid advance.
In any case, thanks for the reply.
Rich
- --- Richard Herkert <herkert@bigplanet.com> wrote:
> Congratulations, John, on the use and placement of
> your hard stop.
>
> There is an interesting DGO chart on FRNT which
> might have forewarned the huge correction, or at
> least made a significant warning of "today's"
> market's displeasure with FRNT. Other than the
> chart, down earnings and sales for the last quarter
> 1999 and the first quarter 2000, along with an EPS
> of 77 (B), all of FRNT's indicators were a go.
> FRNT's action is an excellent example why good daily
> and weekly charts are essential.
>
> Following a climb from the 20 area of Oct. 19th, it
> appears that on Feb. 16, FRNT might have had an
> exhaustion gap of 0.88 pts. when it made a new high
> of 37.88 on 200% volume, gaining only 2pts. with a
> days range of 1.25 pts. The next market day, Feb.
> 20, it closed down 0.19 on 147% with a tight days
> range of 0.93 pts. On Feb. 21 made new high of
> 39.25, closing up only 0.82 pts., on record high
> volume of 452%. Close was in the lower 40% of day's
> range of 1.73 pts. Looks like the institutions were
> starting to sell off?
>
> As always, hind sight makes every thing look easy
> but if we don't use hindsight to learn, we just
> repeat our mistakes.
>
> Any thoughts?
>
> Dick
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: John
> To: CANSLIM
> Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 10:02 AM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Selling Strategies
>
>
> I have been re-reading WON's selling rules and
> surprisingly to me, I did not find a place where he
> said to sell when the market averages fall (he
> certainly is clear that one should not buy in a
> falling market). What he does say in 24 Essential
> Lessons for Investment Success (TELIS?) is:
>
>
>
>
> "If the real market leaders in a particular
> industry break down in price, are being sold in
> volume and are unable to gain much ground, then most
> of the others in the group will probably be
> vulnerable and should be considered for selling."
>
>
>
>
> I interpret this to mean that the sector is
> falling rather than the market.
>
>
>
>
> In any case, I was stopped out of FRNT yesterday.
> This is an example of when a hard stop-loss order
> worked well. Yesterday FRNT announced that it
> projected flat earnings. Today FRNT is down 32% --
> most of which occurred overnight. Unless one had a
> particular sell price in mind and was watching like
> a hawk, it is unlikely one would have gotten out in
> time. (Attached is a 5-day chart of FRNT)
>
>
>
>
> John
>
>
>
>
>
>
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Yahoo! Mail Personal Address - Get email at your
> own domain with Yahoo! Mail.
>
>
>
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail.
http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 20:53:58 -0800 (PST)
From: John <jokguger@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Selling Strategies
- --- Ricardo Bekin <rbekin@ameritech.net> wrote:
>. . .
> the drop today was just the (over)reaction to the
> earnings warning (and btw this was a classic example
> of a situation where a stop loss order would not
> have helped, since it opened down more than 10
> dollars)
>. . .
It, of course, depends upon where the stop-loss is
placed.
I trail stop-loss orders based upon the inter-day
highs. The ATR on 2/21 was 1.52 and the high was
39.25. I put the stop below what I perceived as
support for the two previous weeks @ 34.5 . So, it
tripped on 2/26, the day before the sell off.
Lest I sound a little too smug, I have had stop-loss
orders gapped-through many times. This time I was
lucky.
John
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail.
http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/
- -
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 22:56:40 -0700
From: "Patrick Wahl" <pwahl@prodigy.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Relief Rally on Monday
On 27 Feb 01, at 20:33, Tom Worley wrote:
> And today demonstrated just what, at least on Nasdaq, can happen
> when the relief rally is lukewarm on volume.
My fairly subjective take on the Market, watching all of the carnage
in the big boys on the Nasdaq today (csco, pmcs, etc) is that we
are probably getting near a bottom. But just because we stop
going down doesn't mean we can't lay on the bottom for a while.
The magnitude of this decline (someone on tv said the market
could go up 20% a year for 5 years and only just be above the
highs set last spring) is probably saying a lot about how severe the
slowdown in the economy is, especially the tech sector, so we
probably won't get rolling again for a few quarters.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 06:39:27 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sold FRNT for 29.5 today -- how?
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C0A151.3294A840
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charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
My guess is that it is a bad print, in which case they may discover =
their error and correct it. Or maybe not, since it is only 50 shares. =
Because of the small size of the order, it's likely they did it off =
exchange, so also possible they just found you a good price. There are =
some things you don't want to question, this is one.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mhboatman@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 10:57 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sold FRNT for 29.5 today -- how?
Something happen to day I do not understand. Can someone please =
explain to=20
me what happened that allowed me to complete a sell order at 29.5 for =
FRNT?=20
I held a small position in FRNT -- only 50 shares. When the market =
opened=20
this morning it was already down to around 25 or so and heading south =
on big=20
time volume. I did not have a stop order in place -- would not have =
done any=20
good in this situation anyway. Around 10 EST I placed a sell order at =
market. According to Datek's Streamer it was then below 24. E-Trade =
sold it=20
immediately for 29.5. That was a nice surpass -- but how could that =
be? =20
Today the market never traded above 26.625, according to =
Investors.com.=20
Net result was the sale wiped out my small gain but with little in the =
way of=20
loss.=20
Trying to learn in Minnesota.=20
- ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C0A151.3294A840
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charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>My guess is that it is a bad print, in which case =
they may=20
discover their error and correct it. Or maybe not, since it is only 50 =
shares.=20
Because of the small size of the order, it's likely they did it off =
exchange, so=20
also possible they just found you a good price. There are some things =
you don't=20
want to question, this is one.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ # =
5568838</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:Mhboatman@aol.com"=20
title=3DMhboatman@aol.com>Mhboatman@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, February 27, =
2001 10:57=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Sold FRNT =
for 29.5=20
today -- how?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica><FONT size=3D2>Something =
happen to day=20
I do not understand. Can someone please explain to <BR>me what =
happened=20
that allowed me to complete a sell order at 29.5 for FRNT? <BR><BR>I =
held a=20
small position in FRNT -- only 50 shares. When the market opened =
<BR>this morning it was already down to around 25 or so and heading =
south on=20
big <BR>time volume. I did not have a stop order in place -- =
would not=20
have done any <BR>good in this situation anyway. Around 10 EST I =
placed=20
a sell order at <BR>market. According to Datek's Streamer it was =
then=20
below 24. E-Trade sold it <BR>immediately for 29.5. That =
was a=20
nice surpass -- but how could that be? <BR>Today the market =
never=20
traded above 26.625, according to Investors.com. <BR><BR>Net result =
was the=20
sale wiped out my small gain but with little in the way of <BR>loss.=20
<BR><BR>Trying to learn in Minnesota.=20
<BR><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>
- ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C0A151.3294A840--
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 07:21:47 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MAGI
Chris,
Are you not concerned over the consensus forecast of a decline in
earnings this year (ending Oct) of 24%?
Even with the forecasted increase in year 2002 of 24%, it still
will not take it over the earnings of 2000.
I must also point out that this stock shows a four week base just
under 13. At yesterday's close (granted a strong showing on a
really downer day, closing at the high on volume), this stock is
already over 20% extended.
I too would appreciate it when you mention the stock is not
meeting some of the more basic CANSLIM requirements. We have many
members here who cannot spend their daytime watching a pure
momentum stock minute by minute. I recognize that this stock has
good RS (87) and EPS (90), but the chart is not a buyable one by
virtually anyone's CANSLIM interpretation I have seen here.
I do not mean to disparage your success at short term trading,
but I try to look at most stocks members post here, both for my
own interest as well as to offer my observations. It would be
beneficial to all if you tell us up front that this is not a
buyable CANSLIM stock, and why. Then those members that choose to
amend that aspect of CANSLIM can check it out, and those that do
not buy heavily extended stocks (in this case) can save the time.
Regards,
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838
- ----- Original Message -----
From: <Vanchee1@aol.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 11:28 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MAGI
I generally do not like retail stocks, but am watching this one,
might buy
some if it moves above 16 on at least a 50% increase in volume.
Chris.
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 08:00:07 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Seeing a bottom?
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_003B_01C0A15C.77BB4A40
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charset="iso-8859-1"
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I took some time this morning (see, insomnia is useful!) to take a look =
around the markets. Noted a few things.
First, on the issue of recession, I expected to see the Transportation =
Index heading into the dumpster. If recession is upon us, as some market =
pundits are postulating, then reduced economic activity (e.g. shipping =
of raw to finished goods) would sharply impact this sector. So far, =
chart looks decent, so no evidence of anything but a sharp slowdown in =
growth, and an eventual soft landing.
Looking at yesterday's selloff on NASDAQ, I see that volume was well =
under daily average, a good sign. But looking further, I see that both =
the Naz 100 and S&P500 were hit much harder percentage wise than the =
Naz. So the big caps are taking the brunt of it, and also presumably =
contributing more to the volume even with volume down.
I contrasted this with the Russell 2000, which was also down on low =
volume, but only down about 2%. The small caps still look to be holding =
up. Makes sense, since historically they have shown the best earnings =
improvement as they have a small number to compare to. And once past the =
point of profitability, they can improve rapidly for a few years. It's =
tougher for a multi-billion dollar corp to show 20 or 30% earnings =
improvement. But smart money still wants to be in large or medium caps, =
so this success can change in a heartbeat.
Just some random thoughts I wanted to share,
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838
- ------=_NextPart_000_003B_01C0A15C.77BB4A40
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I took some time this morning (see, insomnia is =
useful!) to=20
take a look around the markets. Noted a few things.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>First, on the issue of recession, I expected to see =
the=20
Transportation Index heading into the dumpster. If recession is upon us, =
as some=20
market pundits are postulating, then reduced economic activity (e.g. =
shipping of=20
raw to finished goods) would sharply impact this sector. So far, =
chart=20
looks decent, so no evidence of anything but a sharp slowdown in growth, =
and an=20
eventual soft landing.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Looking at yesterday's selloff on NASDAQ, I see that =
volume=20
was well under daily average, a good sign. But looking further, I =
see that=20
both the Naz 100 and S&P500 were hit much harder percentage wise =
than the=20
Naz. So the big caps are taking the brunt of it, and also =
presumably=20
contributing more to the volume even with volume down.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I contrasted this with the Russell 2000, which was =
also down=20
on low volume, but only down about 2%. The small caps still look to =
be=20
holding up. Makes sense, since historically they have shown the best =
earnings=20
improvement as they have a small number to compare to. And once past the =
point=20
of profitability, they can improve rapidly for a few years. It's =
tougher=20
for a multi-billion dollar corp to show 20 or 30% earnings improvement. =
But=20
smart money still wants to be in large or medium caps, so this success =
can=20
change in a heartbeat.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Just some random thoughts I wanted to =
share,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ #=20
5568838</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
- ------=_NextPart_000_003B_01C0A15C.77BB4A40--
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 07:45:01 -0600
From: "David Squires" <dcsquires1@home.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Seeing a bottom?
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Hi Tom,
To add some extra perspective to your comments sentiment, as I track it, =
is also very bearish here. I track a number of options ratios, Tick =
numbers, VIX CVR signals, Rydex assets as well as the popular bullish =
consensus numbers. Any way you slice be it... premium, volume or dollar =
weighted the option players are extremely bearish in here. Rydex market =
timers have a very bearish stance, the VIX CVR gave multiple buy signals =
last week and an average of popular bullish consensus numbers comes in a =
32.7% bulls vs 37.9% bears. At the Jan 2 low this ratio stood at 32% =
bulls vs 44.3% bears. Other technical indicators such as the recent =
large downticks in the NAZ, an oversold McCellan Oscillator and 1 and =
5-day TRIN numbers all point to a POTENTIAL large rally here. Of course, =
these numbers set the back round for price reversal but until prices =
reverse I am not acting on them.=20
Good Trading,
Dave Squires
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: CANSLIM=20
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 7:00 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Seeing a bottom?
I took some time this morning (see, insomnia is useful!) to take a =
look around the markets. Noted a few things.
First, on the issue of recession, I expected to see the Transportation =
Index heading into the dumpster. If recession is upon us, as some market =
pundits are postulating, then reduced economic activity (e.g. shipping =
of raw to finished goods) would sharply impact this sector. So far, =
chart looks decent, so no evidence of anything but a sharp slowdown in =
growth, and an eventual soft landing.
Looking at yesterday's selloff on NASDAQ, I see that volume was well =
under daily average, a good sign. But looking further, I see that both =
the Naz 100 and S&P500 were hit much harder percentage wise than the =
Naz. So the big caps are taking the brunt of it, and also presumably =
contributing more to the volume even with volume down.
I contrasted this with the Russell 2000, which was also down on low =
volume, but only down about 2%. The small caps still look to be holding =
up. Makes sense, since historically they have shown the best earnings =
improvement as they have a small number to compare to. And once past the =
point of profitability, they can improve rapidly for a few years. It's =
tougher for a multi-billion dollar corp to show 20 or 30% earnings =
improvement. But smart money still wants to be in large or medium caps, =
so this success can change in a heartbeat.
Just some random thoughts I wanted to share,
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838
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<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi Tom,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>To add some extra perspective to your comments =
sentiment, as I=20
track it, is also very bearish here. I track a number of options ratios, =
Tick=20
numbers, VIX CVR signals, Rydex assets as well as the popular bullish =
consensus=20
numbers. Any way you slice be it... premium, volume or dollar weighted =
the=20
option players are extremely bearish in here. Rydex market timers have a =
very=20
bearish stance, the VIX CVR gave multiple buy signals last week and an =
average=20
of popular bullish consensus numbers comes in a 32.7% bulls vs =
37.9% bears.=20
At the Jan 2 low this ratio stood at 32% bulls vs 44.3% bears. Other =
technical=20
indicators such as the recent large downticks in the NAZ, an oversold =
McCellan=20
Oscillator and 1 and 5-day TRIN numbers all point to a POTENTIAL large =
rally=20
here. Of course, these numbers set the back round for price reversal but =
until=20
prices reverse I am not acting on them. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Good Trading,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Dave Squires</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom =
Worley</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@xmission.com">CANSLIM</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, February 28, =
2001 7:00=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Seeing a =
bottom?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I took some time this morning (see, insomnia is =
useful!) to=20
take a look around the markets. Noted a few things.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>First, on the issue of recession, I expected to =
see the=20
Transportation Index heading into the dumpster. If recession is upon =
us, as=20
some market pundits are postulating, then reduced economic activity =
(e.g.=20
shipping of raw to finished goods) would sharply impact this =
sector. So=20
far, chart looks decent, so no evidence of anything but a sharp =
slowdown in=20
growth, and an eventual soft landing.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Looking at yesterday's selloff on NASDAQ, I see =
that volume=20
was well under daily average, a good sign. But looking further, =
I see=20
that both the Naz 100 and S&P500 were hit much harder percentage =
wise than=20
the Naz. So the big caps are taking the brunt of it, and also =
presumably=20
contributing more to the volume even with volume down.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I contrasted this with the Russell 2000, which was =
also down=20
on low volume, but only down about 2%. The small caps still look =
to be=20
holding up. Makes sense, since historically they have shown the best =
earnings=20
improvement as they have a small number to compare to. And once past =
the point=20
of profitability, they can improve rapidly for a few years. It's =
tougher=20
for a multi-billion dollar corp to show 20 or 30% earnings =
improvement. But=20
smart money still wants to be in large or medium caps, so this success =
can=20
change in a heartbeat.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Just some random thoughts I wanted to =
share,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><BR>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>ICQ #=20
5568838</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 11:09:25 -0600
From: "dmonroetx" <dmonroetx@email.msn.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] remove
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type><BASE=20
href=3D"file://C:\Program Files\Common Files\Microsoft =
Shared\Stationery\">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR>
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Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 09:03:35 -0800
From: Eric Shen <eshen@level1.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Seeing a bottom?
Personally, I'm not convinced that we're at bottom, just yet.
Market sentiment hasn't "thrown in the towel yet"
* Haven't seen the put/call ratio rise recently.
* The weekly news magazines don't appear to be screaming "Sell Stocks
Nows"
* Locally, people are still buying on "dips" (I am tempted to pick
up shares cheaply but need to refrain myself)
I think that once people give up hope, then we've hit bottom.
- --
Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 Intel Corporation
email: eshen@level1.com 9750 Goethe Road
Tel: (916) 855 5177 x4497 Sacramento, CA 95827
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 09:22:06 -0800 (PST)
From: John <jokguger@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Relief Rally on Monday
Keep in mind that the NASDAQ index is "market
weighted". A lot of the size of the drop is due to
some large companies that were clearly over-extended.
While it may take a long time to get the index back to
where it was last year, we are not trading the index.
If we can just have a "rising market", there will be
plenty of 50%s to be made in individual stocks.
John
- --- Patrick Wahl <pwahl@prodigy.net> wrote:
>
> The magnitude of this decline (someone on tv said
> the market
> could go up 20% a year for 5 years and only just be
> above the
> highs set last spring) is probably saying a lot
> about how severe the
> slowdown in the economy is, especially the tech
> sector, so we
> probably won't get rolling again for a few quarters.
>
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail.
http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 11:46:45 -0600 (CST)
From: Pritish Shah <pmshah@sprintparanet.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil in IBD Monday.
In actuality putting solar panels on the roof is very cost prohibitive.
Each solar panel that provides around 150 watts of power costs around
$2000 to $4000 to buy and install.
A powerplant can easily produce 500 megawatts/hr of power or 500,000,000
The cost of solar panels to produce this kind of power would be around
$7billion
Hoover dam which produces around 450megawatts/hour (I believe) cost
$165million in 1935 (ref
http://library.thinkquest.org/C004471/tep/en/traditional_energy/hydroelectric_power.html)
Todays cost would be $2 billion. (ref
http://www.eh.net/ehresources/howmuch/dollarr.php)
As you can clearly see, the cost of solar panels is around 3 to 4 times
the cost of building a hydro-electric project. Coal powered projects are
much less costlier.
Regards,
Pritish
On Tue, 27 Feb 2001, Dan wrote:
> We rapidly caught up and are now above normal in most of the state.
>
> We do have a lot of southerly facing roof tops that we could put solar
> cell and water heating on though. I think it would be a good investment
> for tax and purchase incentives to interest people to install them. It
> seems that it would be a lot less costly than building fossil fuel
> plants.
>
> Eric Shen wrote:
>
> > Tom Worley wrote:
> > >
> > > There is also greater use of hydroelectric production, such as
> > > the Canadians have done. By and large, it is a self sustaining
> > > resource. Granted, environmental damage is done by constructing
> > > the dams.
> > >
> > > Tom Worley
> > > stkguru@netside.net
> > > ICQ # 5568838
> > >
> >
> > Too bad California is short on water in addition to electricity.
> >
> > I think nuclear would be the best way to go. Just need to develop
> > some safe rockets to send the waste product to the sun.
> >
> > --
> > Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 Intel Corporation
> > email: eshen@level1.com 9750 Goethe Road
> > Tel: (916) 855 5177 x4497 Sacramento, CA 95827
> >
> > -
>
>
> -
>
>
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 13:06:29 -0500
From: Surindra <sjs7b@virginia.edu>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] RCII
non canslim, hit delete button: look at RENT (Rentrak) instead of rent a
center (RCII),
ps: bottoms of the markets are historical......
have a nice day.
surindra
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 4:07 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RCII
As someone else pointed out, this is generally a pattern that forms in a
strong bull. I give it wiggle room in a bear market like this one. IMHO a
trading range from 38+ to 40+ over 8 days is neither wide nor loose. There
was a shakeout the prior week but I attribute that to earnings coming out
on Feb 6.
On 11:33 AM 2/27/01, Spencer48@aol.com Said:
>Tim,
>
> Just a question: Why do you see an HTF (I imagine it means WON's
High
>Tight Flag) in RCII. It has not doubled in 4-8 weeks. It took over 3
months
>to double. Moreover-and this seems more significant-the formation
seems
>very wide and loose.
> I'm interested then in what signal you saw that gave you reason to
>conclude RCII is a HTF. The reason I ask is not to show that I've read
WON's
>book, but because you correspond often, and generally your analyses prove
>correct.
>
>jans
>
>-
Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
Tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 13:49:58 EST
From: Vanchee1@aol.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell
Sold my ASHW today, not impressed with earnings and just do not like the
apparel group, may be why I cant bring myself to buy MAGI (note MAGI is not a
canslim stock).
Now i have some extra cash to invest, so someone post a good stock or two to
buy. Getting a little harder to find in this market.
Chris.
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 15:20:52 -0800
From: "Dragon" <frank@dragontec.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell
How does BUCA and CLC look? Got them off the http://www.canslim.net/ and
reviewing their stats. I can't see any problem but I have never made any
money in stocks before and do own them both.
Regards,
Frank
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Vanchee1@aol.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 10:50 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell
Sold my ASHW today, not impressed with earnings and just do not like the
apparel group, may be why I cant bring myself to buy MAGI (note MAGI is not
a
canslim stock).
Now i have some extra cash to invest, so someone post a good stock or two to
buy. Getting a little harder to find in this market.
Chris.
- -
- -
------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 20:18:21 -0500
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: BUCA, CLC (was Re: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell)
BUCA - CS wise looks decent, not quite a 4 week base so far, I
note no ROE (probably due the losses in 1996-98), and funds
already own over half (53%) of the float, so they are more likely
to be sellers than buyers.
CLC - chartwise I would fault this one due the small rise above
the base just under $24 on low volume. CS wise, several things -
5 year earnings growth only 11%, earnings forecast for this year
only 9% and 11% next year, ROE 17%, not in the top five of its
group, GRS only 64.
Just some quick thoughts and observations
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ # 5568838
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Dragon <frank@dragontec.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 6:20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell
How does BUCA and CLC look? Got them off the
http://www.canslim.net/ and
reviewing their stats. I can't see any problem but I have never
made any
money in stocks before and do own them both.
Regards,
Frank
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
Vanchee1@aol.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 10:50 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Ashw-sell
Sold my ASHW today, not impressed with earnings and just do not
like the
apparel group, may be why I cant bring myself to buy MAGI (note
MAGI is not
a
canslim stock).
Now i have some extra cash to invest, so someone post a good
stock or two to
buy. Getting a little harder to find in this market.
Chris.
- -
- -
- -
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #1165
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