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1997-02-13
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From: canslim-owner@xmission.com
To: canslim-digest@xmission.com
Subject: canslim Digest V1 #82
Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com
Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com
Precedence:
canslim Digest Friday, 14 February 1997 Volume 01 : Number 082
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] Charts from DG
[CANSLIM] Re: IFMX
Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops
[CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
Re: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
[CANSLIM] Informix
Re: [CANSLIM] Informix
Re: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
RE: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
Re: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
Re: [CANSLIM] some stocks
Re: Bases (was RE: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs)
[CANSLIM] Re: Trend Reversal - NEW MARKET RALLY?
Re: [CANSLIM] Cool website
[CANSLIM] Welcome New Members
Re: [CANSLIM] Trend Reversal - NEW MARKET RALLY?
[CANSLIM] Re: CANSLIM FAQ Archives
See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim
or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC <jep@ascc01.ascc.lucent.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 09:26:35 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charts from DG
It is funny how some stocks are jinxed for you or have bad karma as I
say. The key is to watch it for improvement in karma. What this is
really saying is to identify a new trend. IDTI is one that has had bad
karma for a long time; it still does.
EMC had bad karma for some time. But then it had a change, and
promptly doubled. Notice the cup+handle between June-Sept 17, 1996,
and the breakout on Sept 18 on increasing vol that follows through for
the week. This also shows up as a classic point+figure breakout.
Technically, ifmx has broken most of its support and is in a bearish
triangle pattern. My take is that there has been a lot of
institutional and momentum distribution.
>>>>> "tom" == tom worley <stkguru@netside.net> writes:
tom> Not so funny a story on IFMX. At my last firm, when we still had
tom> access to O'Neill NSMI picks, our acct exec recommended IFMX as
tom> an "institutional grade" short. I bot the argument, and shorted
tom> it for clients, only to have it go against me. A week later, our
tom> acct exec w/O'Neill, who by then was losing a lot of credibility
tom> with me, said to cover the short and also go long. My scepticism
tom> prevented me following this advice, which turned out to be very
tom> good, I just couldn't handle such a change in position in such a
tom> short time frame. Ultimately, I gutted every other position to
tom> meet the calls as IFMX rose, then, in one glorious day, as it and
tom> the market suffered a selloff, I covered my short and went long
tom> IBM and ended the day making up the loss on IFMX with gains on
tom> IBM for my clients. That taught me a lesson, there are some
tom> stocks that brokers should stay a long ways from, and for me that
tom> is IFMX. I promise I will never, ever again buy, sell, short, buy
tom> calls, sell calls, buy or write puts, etc on this stock. For me,
tom> it is jinxed. no thanks, I don't care what the chart looks like,
tom> I was just glad to escape with my hide mostly intact. I will
tom> never touch this one again, no way, no how.
------------------------------
From: "David F. Cameron" <dcameron@harper.cc.il.us>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 8:44:39 CST
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: IFMX
IFMX may be in the tank, but so are its primary competitors ORCL,
and SYBS. I suspect there is weakness in the sector which may
last a while.
Just my 2.35 cents,
Dave Cameron
dcameron@harper.cc.il.us
------------------------------
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 16:19:50 GMT
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mental Stops vs Actual Stops
On Fri, 14 Feb 1997 06:36:29 -0500, you wrote:
:
:>Would someone please explain to me the concept of "take out our
:>stops?" Does this mean executing stop limit orders (automatically),
:>such as <if my stock goes down 8% from my buy point, sell
:>automatically>, or is something else going on here? Please explain
:>this in detail so I understand. Thank you.
:>Dan Musicant
:
:
:Hi Dan,
:
:What happens is a floor trader will look at a chart & know that the =
stops
:are a tick or two below support. So he "guns" them which means that he
:brings the bid down to where it
:will set off the stop. I believe it's more prevelant in the Futures =
market.
:
: Bob=20
What I don't understand is how the floor trader (or Market Maker, in
the case of an OTC stock) knows where the stop limit orders are
placed. I would have thought that this information was only in the
hands of the investors' brokerages. The paradigm in my mind is that
the brokerage acts at the trigger point. Do they actually forward that
info to the MMs and leave the execution up to them? That's a little
like letting the wolf guard the chicken coop. :)
Can someone explain? Thanks.
Dan
------------------------------
From: "Mike Artobello" <marto@mail.ccnet.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 08:57:47 -0800
Subject: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
Ok, let's foregt about market manipulation for awhile and talk about
stop loss strategy. When I was trading commodities, I read how
important it was to place your stops where they wouldn't get easily
taken out by the floor traders. A couple rules were to never use an
absolute value or percentage and never place a stop on an even
dollar amount. Instead, one should look at a chart to determine the
next support level (for a sell stop) and place the stop a few ticks
away. However, you must be careful to avoid placing a stop where most
other traders would place it, to prevent been taken out by the floor
traders.
Now O'Neil states in his book to set your stop loss at 7%-8%, which
violates one of the rules above. I understand that the stock market
is quite different from the commodities market, which is my only
point of reference, having traded there before, so I would like to
know if the same rules stated above apply to the stock market? Is
anyone using O'Neils 7%-8% stops? If so, what have your experiences
been?
I'm putting together a trading plan and this is a critical component.
I'd appreciate any feedback.
Regards,
Mike
- -----------------------------------------------------------
Mike Artobello
marto@ccnet.com
http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/
- -----------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant)
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 17:09:41 GMT
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
On Fri, 14 Feb 1997 08:57:47 -0800, you wrote:
:Ok, let's foregt about market manipulation for awhile and talk about
:stop loss strategy. When I was trading commodities, I read how
:important it was to place your stops where they wouldn't get easily
:taken out by the floor traders. A couple rules were to never use an
:absolute value or percentage and never place a stop on an even
:dollar amount. Instead, one should look at a chart to determine the
:next support level (for a sell stop) and place the stop a few ticks
:away. However, you must be careful to avoid placing a stop where most
:other traders would place it, to prevent been taken out by the floor
:traders.
:
:Now O'Neil states in his book to set your stop loss at 7%-8%, which
:violates one of the rules above. I understand that the stock market
:is quite different from the commodities market, which is my only
:point of reference, having traded there before, so I would like to
:know if the same rules stated above apply to the stock market? Is
:anyone using O'Neils 7%-8% stops? If so, what have your experiences
:been?=20
O'Neil specifically states in his book that it is better to use a
mental stop than to set one with traders, if it is possible to do so.
Dan
:I'm putting together a trading plan and this is a critical component.
:I'd appreciate any feedback.=20
:
:Regards,
:
:Mike=20
:-----------------------------------------------------------
:Mike Artobello=20
:marto@ccnet.com=20
:http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/
:-----------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
From: "Fred J. Sabour" <fjsabour@cwia.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 09:39:35 -0800
Subject: [CANSLIM] Informix
> From: tom worley <stkguru@netside.net>
>....
>I promise I will never, ever
>again buy, sell, short, buy calls, sell calls, buy or write puts, etc
>on this stock. For me, it is jinxed. no thanks, I don't care what the
>chart looks like, I was just glad to escape with my hide mostly
>intact. I will never touch this one again, no way, no how.
Tom,
Now, do not beat around the bushes. Tell us what you really feel about
this
stock!
Fred
------------------------------
From: "Fred J. Sabour" <fjsabour@cwia.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 09:40:17 -0800
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Informix
> I made money on Informix this summer and have watched it drop to 20 and
> then run up to 10 points on three occassions since then. Today it closed
> down, 1/2 away from it's 2 year low of 17.75. I'm itching to get back in
> simply based on the past history, but as Tom has said, "catching a
> falling knife can be messy." Anyone else watching IFMX?
James,
I will wait to see what happens at 17.5 area which is the last line of
defense!
If IFMX breaks 17.5 then who knows!
Wise money should avoid this stock until it calms down and starts a basing
pattern.
Cheers,
Fred
------------------------------
From: Dave Dubinsky <dcduba@ix.netcom.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 12:23:48 -0800
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
Mike Artobello wrote:
>
> Ok, let's foregt about market manipulation for awhile and talk about
> stop loss strategy. When I was trading commodities, I read how
> important it was to place your stops where they wouldn't get easily
> taken out by the floor traders. A couple rules were to never use an
> absolute value or percentage and never place a stop on an even
> dollar amount. Instead, one should look at a chart to determine the
> next support level (for a sell stop) and place the stop a few ticks
> away. However, you must be careful to avoid placing a stop where most
> other traders would place it, to prevent been taken out by the floor
> traders.
>
> Now O'Neil states in his book to set your stop loss at 7%-8%, which
> violates one of the rules above. I understand that the stock market
> is quite different from the commodities market, which is my only
> point of reference, having traded there before, so I would like to
> know if the same rules stated above apply to the stock market? Is
> anyone using O'Neils 7%-8% stops? If so, what have your experiences
> been?
>
> I'm putting together a trading plan and this is a critical component.
> I'd appreciate any feedback.
>
> Regards,
>
> Mike
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> Mike Artobello
> marto@ccnet.com
> http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/
> -----------------------------------------------------------
When you buy them at the PIVOT, and the move is going to occur, they
seldom drop 6-7% from the buy point.
That is why you limit your losses to 6 or 7% for those that don't work
out. This keeps you from getting hurt too bad when the breakout fails.
The key point here is that you have to be very precise about the correct
pivot point in order NOT to get shaken out too early.
------------------------------
From: "Hilton Steve" <Hilton_Steve@macmail1.cig.mot.com>
Date: 14 Feb 1997 13:03:15 -0600
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
Hi, I am new to the list.
What is the pivot point? How is it determined?
Thanks,
Steve
_______________________________________________________________________________
From: dcduba@ix.netcom.com on Fri, Feb 14, 1997 12:54 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
To: canslim@xmission.com
Mike Artobello wrote:
>
> Ok, let's foregt about market manipulation for awhile and talk about
> stop loss strategy. When I was trading commodities, I read how
> important it was to place your stops where they wouldn't get easily
> taken out by the floor traders. A couple rules were to never use an
> absolute value or percentage and never place a stop on an even
> dollar amount. Instead, one should look at a chart to determine the
> next support level (for a sell stop) and place the stop a few ticks
> away. However, you must be careful to avoid placing a stop where most
> other traders would place it, to prevent been taken out by the floor
> traders.
>
> Now O'Neil states in his book to set your stop loss at 7%-8%, which
> violates one of the rules above. I understand that the stock market
> is quite different from the commodities market, which is my only
> point of reference, having traded there before, so I would like to
> know if the same rules stated above apply to the stock market? Is
> anyone using O'Neils 7%-8% stops? If so, what have your experiences
> been?
>
> I'm putting together a trading plan and this is a critical component.
> I'd appreciate any feedback.
>
> Regards,
>
> Mike
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> Mike Artobello
> marto@ccnet.com
> http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/
> -----------------------------------------------------------
When you buy them at the PIVOT, and the move is going to occur, they
seldom drop 6-7% from the buy point.
That is why you limit your losses to 6 or 7% for those that don't work
out. This keeps you from getting hurt too bad when the breakout fails.
The key point here is that you have to be very precise about the correct
pivot point in order NOT to get shaken out too early.
------------------------------
From: Jonathan Polito - Lucent ASCC <jep@ascc01.ascc.lucent.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 14:18:11 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stop Loss Strategy
Has anyone been saving old articles? If so, I think it would be
worthwhile to start a CANSLIM FAQ...any volunteers?
>>>>> "Hilton" == Hilton Steve <Hilton_Steve@macmail1.cig.mot.com> writes:
Hilton> Hi, I am new to the list.
Hilton> What is the pivot point? How is it determined?
------------------------------
From: Craig Griffin <cagriffin@mindspring.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 14:43:22 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] some stocks
Patrick,
This indeed has been "some stock" since you mentioned it.
Best regards,
Craig
You wrote:
>-------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Cutter & Buck (CBUK)
>
>Shares, 5.6 million, EPS 74, RS 82, Group Rs 44.
>
>EPS rank and group RS are a bit low. However, sales last four
>quarters show gains of 125%, 41%, 142%, 140%. Estimates for this FY
>(ends in April) are 0.75, for 1998 $1.05, +40%.
>
>CBUK designs and manufactures sportswear.
>
>-----------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
From: Craig Griffin <cagriffin@mindspring.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 14:43:26 -0500
Subject: Re: Bases (was RE: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs)
Linda,
I don't recall if you ever got an answer to this question.
I believe a valid base must be at least 7 or 8 weeks. Breakouts from
shorter bases sometimes work, but anything shorter than 3 or 4 weeks is hard
to even call a base.
I think that the longer and tighter the better, in general. But it
partially depends on where the stock has come from. If the stock had a run
of 100% (doubles) and then retraces 50% of that move in the new base, then
that may be ok. MASX did that, but then it formed a long handle on the cup
with very tight action in the handle before it finally broke out. In
general, the longer the base the better the run coming out of it. But that
does not prove true as often as I once thought. Now it seems the really
strong stocks only pause 8 - 10 weeks before they are off again, and
sometimes they go quite a long way from a short base like that. Another
rule of thumb is that a base of 10-20% is tight, 20-25% is pretty tight, and
25-35% is pretty loose (3Com broke out of about a 9 month 30% rolling base a
couple of months back. It then ran 50%+ from that base before getting into
trouble recently and giving back all of those gains and more.). But as I
said, even a 50% base can be ok in certain special situations. The more
charts you look at and the more examples you see of what succeeds, the
better you will be able to judge.
Hope this helps.
Best regards,
Craig
At 09:50 AM 2/11/97 -0500, you wrote:
>What serendipity! I've been trying to get a better handle on bases
>(pun only mildly intended). I'd like to get people's idea of what
>actually constitutes a base. I know O'Neil says that it has to be
>a minimum of two weeks long and from what I've seen, longer is
>better. But how thick can it be? I thought O'Neil said that it should be
>fairly tight, 5-10% I think, but Craig referred to a 20-25% base as "not bad".
>From my own scans of charts, I would tend to agree with him. And, is
>this determination made solely on closing prices or on the high-low bar?
>
>Thanks for everyone patience with the flood of questions from me
>lately. This list has been a tremendous resource for me!
>
> -Linda
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Craig Griffin [SMTP:cagriffin@mindspring.com]
>[...]so I actually do a quick mental calculation (ie. if it is basing
between 25
>and 20, then I figure that its about a 20-25% base, not bad).[...].
>
>
>
>Attachment Converted: d:\online\pipeplus\DOWNLOAD\Bases(wa
>
------------------------------
From: Craig Griffin <cagriffin@mindspring.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 14:43:29 -0500
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Trend Reversal - NEW MARKET RALLY?
MD Gates,
At 03:48 PM 2/12/97 -0800, you wrote:
>It has been stated that
>Mr. O'Niel looks for a rally day followed through by a up day of 1%+
>(such as today) on heavy volume (such as today) between 2-5 days after
>the intial rally day. If one interpretted this last Friday as the first
>rally day and today as the follow thru, then this is a big BUY signal.
>
I wish I knew :-) . This seems like the hardest part of CANSLIM for me, and
I continue to have trouble with it. The 3 charts of the NASDAQ, DOW, and S&P
are close in recent action, but not in lockstep. The big caps (DOW & S&P)
seem to be leading.
Reading the DOW chart - I would tend to agree with your interpretation. OR -
another way of looking at it is that the rally did not start until Tuesday,
February the 11th and was immediately followed on the 2nd day by a follow
through day on the 12th. Either way, reading the DOW chart, looks like a
trend reversal to the upside.
The NASDAQ, OTOH, is not as clear. It bottomed on the 11th, followed on the
12th by that huge 27 point gain, on higher, but not extreme volume. Then,
yesterday, it followed through, but with a slightly less than 1% gain,
although volume picked up quite a bit. So I would read this as probably
signaling a new uptrrend as well.
One obvious problem with this market reading as suggested by O'Neil is that
the markets do not always co-operate and give perfect and clear "by the
rules" signals. They are by their nature somewhat chaotic and O'Neil is
simply providing rules that follow the "odds".
When I look at the number of gainers to losers and the up to down volume on
both indexes over the last week and when I look at the price volume action
of the indexes, it sure looks like a trend reversal. I was personally
hoping for a bit more of a correction (around a 10% pullback) from which to
launch another run like we have had since last August. The NASDAQ signal is
not as clear, but the odds now seem to point to a new uptrend in place after
what has been a rather short consolidation.
(I heard an analyst on CNBC mention the following definitions that s/he used:
Consolidation - a less than 10% pullback in the averages
Correction - a 10-20% pullback
Bear market - greater than 20% pullback.
Seems like a good way to reference it, and more or less standard.)
RE: which groups to look at. O'Neil recommended in his seminar looking at
what groups had the largest numbers of new highs. He recommended looking at
the new highs page every day in order to get a feel for GRS (group relative
strength). He noted that banks and finance and biotech/medical were doing
quite well lately, for example. I also note that Johan had a very nice
group analysis from his beta DG Online tryout earlier. Here is a repost of
Johan's work which appears straight forward and nicely done.
Johan wrote:
>Fastest moving groups, ranked per this weeks rating ( = first column).
>
>First column is this weeks rating.
>Second column is the name.
>The third column is the increase from last week to this week.
>
>I only included the ones that are increasing 4 or more.
>
>6 FINANCE-INVESTMENT BKRS 16
>11 REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT 4
>13 FINANCE-INVESTMENT MGMT 5
>14 SHOES & REL APPAREL 7
>19 BANKS-WEST 4
>25 MEDICAL-ETHICAL DRUGS 6
>27 BANKS-NORTHEAST 6
>30 COMML-LEASING COS 6
>31 ELEC PRODUCTS-MISC 6
>32 FINANCIAL SERVICES-MISC 6
>34 MEDICAL-PRODUCTS 6
>37 RETAIL-DRUG STORES 5
>
>
>I'd conclude from this that since last week the advancing groups are in the
>medical/biotech, finance and retail areas.
The "retail areas" statement seems a little misleading because only the Drug
Stores and Apparel seem to really be leading at this point.
It will be interesting to look back at this week's IBD's and to look at this
weekend's DG's to see which groups seem to be coming on. At some point we
may get a group speed thing going here too, if I can ever get myself to put
a little focus on it. I have a sample spreadsheet and a very kind source
offering data. But, one point here is that it can be done by simply reading
IBD and carefully observing what seems to be happening (use your brain as
the filtering device).
Well, I'm beginning to ramble about things which are not solid parts of my
personal practice. Time to say adios, hope this helps.
Best regards,
Craig
------------------------------
From: Craig Griffin <cagriffin@mindspring.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 14:43:24 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cool website
Brian,
"Pretty good" is an understatement. WSRN (Wall Street Research Net) is the
best all in one company info site I have seen! Thanks for sharing WSRN (
http://www.wsrn.com/home/companyResearch.html ). It is allstar quality.
Here are a couple of others which complement the site you gave us:
http://www.barrons.com/dossier/dossier.shtml - Barron's Dossier (must
register to use - but no charge at present - I think I got this one from Johan)
http://www.ultra.zacks.com/docs/Show.html - Zack's Free Earnings Ests.
Best regards,
Craig
At 11:30 AM 2/4/97 -0800, you wrote:
>Found a pretty good site for earnings estimates and institutional
>ownership information. Under the Earnings Estimates link, there's a link
>to Top 50 Institutional Holders, Five Percent Ownership and Top Mutual
>Fund Holders. The information is a bit dated. Maybe you guys can point
>me to a better one:
>
>http://www.wsrn.com/home/companyResearch.html
>
>
------------------------------
From: Craig Griffin <cagriffin@mindspring.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 14:43:20 -0500
Subject: [CANSLIM] Welcome New Members
Tapas, Derek, and Others with Recent Intros,
Thanks for joining us! The CANSLIM List just seems to get better and better
as time goes on and it is good to have all of the new members. Welcome aboard!
Best regards,
Craig
------------------------------
From: Craig Griffin <cagriffin@mindspring.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 14:43:40 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Trend Reversal - NEW MARKET RALLY?
Douglas,
At 02:30 PM 2/13/97 -0500, you wrote:
>Relative strength has been declining for nearly two weeks in the High
>Technology Sector and for at least four months in the Junior Growth Sector.
Interesting observation.
>The market seems to be good for blue-chip stocks; other sectors are not so
>encouraging.
Agreed. The blue chips are leading at this point (and have been for a
while). Various pundits seem to be saying slow growth, low inflation, strong
dollar ... all create an ideal environment for these big caps (with possible
negative currency consequences for some like IBM). That is part of the
reason the Dow 30 are doing so well. Most pundits (on CNBC and at the Money
Show) seem to be looking for small caps to pick up the pace Any Time Now.
But big caps just keep on leading. Biotechs, banks, financials,
semiconductor equip mfgs, and now even memory devices seem to be making a turn.
>So while we may be exuberant it may, perhaps, not be a time for irrational
>exuberance.
Yes.
Best regards,
Craig
------------------------------
From: "David F. Cameron" <dcameron@harper.cc.il.us>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 1997 15:43:50 CST
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: CANSLIM FAQ Archives
There is an archive maintained at the majordomo. It saves
the postings to monthly files. Send the message: index canslim
to majordomo@xmission.com - and you'll see them.
>
> Has anyone been saving old articles? If so, I think it would be
> worthwhile to start a CANSLIM FAQ...any volunteers?
>
------------------------------
End of canslim Digest V1 #82
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