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1997-01-11
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From: canslim-owner@xmission.com
To: canslim-digest@xmission.com
Subject: canslim Digest V1 #38
Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com
Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com
Precedence:
canslim Digest Sunday, 12 January 1997 Volume 01 : Number 038
In this issue:
Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Jim Rogers
Re: [CANSLIM] "M", overkill
Re: [CANSLIM] "M", INLQ, RUDY
Re: [CANSLIM] 1/10/97 market commentary
[CANSLIM] Market indicators and their collective impact?
Fw: [CANSLIM] Market indicators and their collective impact?
Re: [CANSLIM] Stops
[CANSLIM] Re: Losing streaks
Re: [CANSLIM] Taking Profits
[CANSLIM] Fw: Market Timing Model Using Historical Earnings Estimates
See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim
or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "tom worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 1997 08:43:51 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Jim Rogers
Either I missed the original post or this was snipped from something not
posted to the group, but actually I consider myself rather introverted. I
have never enjoyed crowds or large parties, pretty much always felt like an
outsider in any organization, which may be why I developed a habit of
speaking my mind even if I was in disagreement with the majority. If I seem
extroverted in what I write, it is because I write about something I know
and have confidence in what I say. That doesn't mean I am right, it just
means that's OMHO. And often there are several equally valid opinions, the
right one may only be determined over time. Then again, the dow did manage
finally to close over 6600 this week, then, in a spectacular 150 plus pt
reversal on "apparently" inflationary unemployment nrs and with the bond
mkt down 1 and a half pts somehow run up to close over 6700 the same week.
Confusing, you bet, stay tuned for this weekend's market comments
attempting to make some sense of this past week.
If anyone feels intimidated by my postings because it sounds like I know
what I am saying, or because I have more experience than you, or a better
background in the securities industry, then frankly that is your issue and
you must find a way to resolve it. I don't flame anyone, at least not
knowingly or intentionally. If you ask a question so basic that it is
apparent you haven't read O'Neill's book, then I will suggest you go do
your homework like most here already have. That's not a flame, at worst it
is constructive criticism.
I have said it before, and will continue to say it, everyone has an
opinion, or should have. If you have no opinion it says to me you also
don't have a plan, and without that you will be lost. Many of you have
industry backgrounds or educations that can contribute to this group far
more in specifics than I can. Don't be bashful, we all have different
strengths and weaknesses, that's why a group working together can
accomplish far more than the sum of the individuals.
If the content or quality of my postings or my experience have contributed
to intimidating anyone, please understand that is not my intent. I post to
share with others what I have learned in hopes of helping you make better
decisions in the market. I have made major mistakes in the past, including
riding two companies right into bankruptcy liquidation (one in six weeks
after I bot it, a personal best for rapid loss). Believe me, this was an
expensive lesson in corporate finance, and was part of the loss
carryforward that I finally wiped out in 96.
I also don't have all the answers, even if you think so. Sometimes I know
where to find them, sometimes I just know who to call to get them.
Sometimes I frankly just don't know. On the other hand, in a group this
size, someone should be out there who can provide the answer so post your
question.
From what I have seen of this group's background so far, one area that
could be contributed greatly and has been done very minimally is in
understanding a company's product competitiveness over another company's.
We've got an impressive array of people here in terms of who they work for.
While some may be limited by their employer in what they can say about
their own products or work/research in progress, I suspect they know a lot
about what the competition is doing and could share this legally and
without sanction. This would be very important if any of us are considering
buying into one of those companies.
In my case, I am very limited in what I can say about specific companies.
You may have noticed that when I talk of a specific company, I try to limit
it to factual info without expressing an opinion. When I make more
generalized comments, like about the market, I can mix in my opinion with
facts, but I try to show clearly just what is my opinion. But that won't
stop me having an opinion, or expressing it.
tom w
- ----------
> From: David F. Cameron <dcameron@harper.cc.il.us>
> To: canslim@xmission.com
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Jim Rogers
> Date: Friday, January 10, 1997 8:04 AM
>
> > I find it a bit overwhelming (most people in the group would say
> > overpowering)
>
> TW
> seems to fit the analytical extrovert role - and many find that
> overwhelming given it is combined with a lot of experience.
>
------------------------------
From: "tom worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 1997 08:53:12 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", overkill
David, just a simple "Yeah, I agree" is better than silence cuz it lets me
know that one other investor may be seeing some of the same things. While
this helps reinforce my thinking, my posting may have already contributed
to reinforcing yours.
I am concerned over the drop in the size of the group. Jeff, Jeff where are
you? Jeff Salisbury, time for another Lurker Poster update on this group.
Speaking of which, haven't seen Mike Langston here for some time, was he
one of the "missing 60" members?
Disagreement is fine and often leads to discussion where we all learn, but
concurrence still contributes.
tom w
- ----------
> From: David F. Cameron <dcameron@harper.cc.il.us>
> To: canslim@xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", overkill
> Date: Friday, January 10, 1997 7:52 AM
>
> ... I agree wholeheartedly, I didn't post because I have nothing to
add
> I don't think we still have200 people though. I requested
> the canslim-list from the majordomo and only got 140 names
I usually
> just pipe in if I have a question or disagree
------------------------------
From: "tom worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 1997 09:25:13 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", INLQ, RUDY
OK, finally found the snipped posting that David responded to, guess I was
overwhelmed last night by a long week and the late hours and the volume of
email. Keep it coming tho, I like it. Much better than logging on to find
two or three msgs waiting.
Dean, thanks for the kind words, I do appreciate them because it is
important to me to know that I am helping. As I mentioned in the past,
discovering the internet has been therapy for me since my wife died. But
even before that, which is why I continue to work in the securities
industry, I have enjoyed sharing what I have learned. That frankly was the
best part of being a broker, which contributed to why my production was so
low (too much service, not enough sales).
I'm glad you took the risk and responded with an opinion, that's how we get
a discussion going and learn to examine our own thinking. Unlike my usual
style, I'm imbedding my responses in the snipped comments below. Hope it
makes some sense.
tom w
- ----------
> From: Dean Edwards <d_edwa00@ihug.co.nz>
> To: canslim@xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M", INLQ, RUDY
> Date: Friday, January 10, 1997 7:32 AM
>
> starting to get apprehensive. Here is my observations about the market.
> The top 100 stocks in dollar value for volume turnover have been lead by
> technology which you have already mentioned in your earlier market
> summaries. Please notice Professor, the student hasn't fallen asleep in
> class :). I have been following some of these market leaders. And they
are
> not performing.
What you may have forgotten is my comment in mid-Dec about the rotation of
money out of the large cap stocks into the secondarys. This process was
subsequently halted, but I believe has resumed. This opinion is reinforced
both by NASDAQ performance measured again the dow 30 (neutral is about a
1:5 ratio, NASDAQ has been doing better than that) as well as by the
Russell 2000 (just hit its first new high since May).
> Then I came across a web-site which indicated the margin level in 1996
(for
> the entire stock market) had surpassed the previous high set in 1987. The
> alarm bells sounded went I read that,
Margin levels concerns me as well. Several years ago, with savings acct
rates around 2% and credit card charges still in the 18 to 21% level, the
public got fed up and starting saving and paying off credit card balances.
Now they seem to have gotten used to this interest rate spread. More money
has come into the market because the returns are better than a savings
acct. On the other hand, more people are more secure in their job status so
are more comfortable in carrying greater debt. Balanced against this is
that the number of personal bankruptcies continues to rise making new
records every month (which is one reason credit card rates are so high). As
far as securities accts go, when the mkt shows signs of a major run up (and
the "January" effect is pretty predictable), margining to the hilt for max
leverage of capital is a given. If this was happening in the fall,
preceding the predictable "tax related selling" period, I would be more
concerned. Right now, margin levels are a problem only if the mkt reverses
significantly, otherwise it is contributing to capital creation. But if
there is a reversal, watch out for the next three days or so as investors
have to meet their margin calls, and can only sell in a time of weakness to
do so.
> seams to me, like we are in the last stages of a bull with these
"euphoric
> swings" in the indexes. In his book "How to Make Money in Stocks"
Williams
> O'Neil discusses the end of a business cycle. What stage of the business
> cycle do you
> think we are in? Are my fears all nonsense. I am starting to think about
> cashing in, on some of my paper profits. So what do other people think?
> A consensus of opinion on the "M" market conditions will help me
formulate
> an opinion. Are people using or coming off margin?
I have always tried to keep my margin levels (equity percent) at 50% or
better to avoid calls and give me some fast buying power when I needed it
without selling something in a hurry. I have been increasing my margin
lately (two weeks ago I was at 80 plus percent, currently I am around 60
percent). On the other hand, this "aging bull" has been in its "final
stage" for about two years now, judging from market commentators. I have
said this before, this bull can't be casually compared to historical norms.
Thus far, it is proving itself to be unique. Even the ultra conservative
investors are being forced into mutual funds as a minimum, CD rates are
just too low for them. Money continues to flow into both the bond and stock
mkt at historically unheard of rates.
> If your last couple of trades have been unsucessful - the market
> is telling you something. I have heard people discuss their losses on a
> stock but never once mention "M" with regard to the loss.
Don't assume the market is at fault, maybe the investor misread the
signals, or mistimed the investment. However, it would be useful to all of
us, including especially the one who lost the bucks, to bring these forth
here and discuss them. That's how we all learn to make better decisions.
>
> Finally let me say that I prefer to be a lurker. As I said right from the
> start, I
> consider myself a novice and don't have that much to contribute.
To which I again say B___S__T!!! This posting proves me right.
> But Tom you spurred me into action!
> I don't want to lose your market comments. Please send it to my personal
> email address
I am updating the address book this weekend before preparing a summary for
the week. You'll be on the list. Thanks again for responding.
> >
> >
------------------------------
From: "tom worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 1997 09:43:34 -0500
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 1/10/97 market commentary
Thanks for the competition, Luke, this is what I wanted to see here. Again,
I am going to imbed my comments within your posting. I hope this is easier
to read, feedback welcome.
tom w
- ----------
> From: lukelang@svlhp8.scs.philips.com
> To: CANSLIM group <canslim@xmission.com>
> Subject: [CANSLIM] 1/10/97 market commentary
> Date: Friday, January 10, 1997 9:00 PM
>
> I am going to try to give Tom some competition, as well as some
> motivation to continue his excellent commentary work.
>
> This market is amazing. It seems like nothing can hurt it. Or
> are we near the top? Bond takes a tumble on stronger than expected
> employment number, but Dow and NASDAQ continues to march into
> record territory (and finish at the high of the day). SOX
> (Philadelphia semi index) is also at a near-term high. Early in
> the morning I recall seeing NYSE advance/decline ratio around 1:8.
> But both NYSE and NASDAQ a/d ration closed even. The really amazing
> thing is the up/down volume ratio was 2:1 for NYSE and 3:2 for NASDAQ.
No question, Friday was impressive. Major reversal, triggered the circuit
breaker in both directions. Over a 150 pt swing on dow 30. Energy stocks
again a major contributor. But close analysis of the employment nrs shows
that while there were more jobs, almost all the gains were service, which
tends to be low wages. And the hourly wage increase was minimal, 6cents I
believe. That's why the report was not inflationary. The bond mkt did
bounce off its lows but still down over a pt. Have we disconnected, at
least temporarily, between the stock and bond mkt? I think the major factor
is that Q4 earnings report cycle is upon us with virtually no negative
"preannouncements". That's a good sign. What really surprised me is
Motorola announcing neg earnings surprise and ending up gaining 2.5 pts! Go
figure! Says something about the perception on the comms industry. Any
group members out there with a background that want to share???
>
> It sure looks like there isn't much inflation worries; ...
I am still worried about rising
> bond yield. Therefore, my strategy is put my finger on the sell
> trigger ...One thing that sticks in my mind from last
> summer's correction is dramatic shift in NYSE new high vs. new low
> numbers.
I too am watching the new high/low nrs and trying to gauge the extent of
the "delayed reaction" if they reverse, so far I like the trend, esp on
NASDAQ.
>
> I think semiconductors is the place to be right now. Even a lower than
> expected book-to-bill can't bring them down.
Nov's report was much stronger than anticipated, and while Dec slipped
slightly I suspect it was still ahead of what had been anticipated back in
Oct/Nov, so appears still bullish. Obviously, as long as it stays well over
1.0 and we don't see an inventory glut, it bodes well for the future.
I think the expectation is
> that the worst is over. For aggressive investors, I would recommend
> betting on earnings. You almost can't loose. Good earnings bring rich
> reward: VTSS and DS each gained almost 10% today
I'm still kicking myself over missing VTSS last summer, and I was watching
it daily, just didn't have the money or guts to jump in.
> Have a nice weekend,
> Luke Lang
>
> discussion on the psychology of a CANSLIM investor. Any comments?
I for one am a risk taker, and think that most successful CANSLIM investors
are likewise. To buy a stock at a new high, and play it into the unknown,
usually without any dividends, requires taking a risk.
tom w
------------------------------
From: OWENTIME@delphi.com
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 1997 13:22:26 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [CANSLIM] Market indicators and their collective impact?
=================================
To: Dean Edwards
=================================
RE: J. Rogers
..."just made a ton of money investing in natural resources for
1996. Again just from reading or observing the market, Mutual
Funds in naturalresources had a great year. One fund in particular
Fidelity made 38% for
1996.
=================================
Warren Kent: Is this guy completely out of high technology?
I heard he long ago washed his hands of this current
hi-tech market attitude.
BTW, What is the change this
year in Fidelity Fund Mgrs. market buy?
=================================
... Rail stocks were doing very well towards
the end of 1996. The market indexes are breaking records, that leap
frog each other."
=================================
Warren Kent:
Rails up, and upward metal movement? Aluminum and copper really
breaking out from 200 day downswings? Is this THE
beginning bear indicator? I heard the "R" word expected
from one CEO the other day.
On the other hand, the diversity of this market is tough to read.
I'm not averse to superstition and numerology when citing
Hirsch's (7) in 1997 as a haunted stock market year; the
triple witching year?
=================================
Dean Edwards:
O'Neil discusses the end of a business cycle. What stage of the
business cycle do you think we are in? Are my fears all nonsense?
========
Warren Kent:
Isn't the food sector and utilities turning up a classic O'Neill
signal of money shift from high growth to safe stocks? McDonalds is
not doing very well this year. Pepsi restaurants are not doing
all that well. I think it was pizza hut with some reduced sales.
I'm interested in the utilities though, my hunch is that some may
do better than people think this year: mixed year from June on?
=================================
Dave Cameron:
The strong performance today, including seeing the
> Russell 2000 hit its first high since May, is significant
(anybody else besides me notice that), reinforces my opinion on
what is happening, and...
=================================
Warren Kent:
I just wonder how much hype and eps will be put upon
those in the Russell 2000. Will the "limbo bar"
be quickly over adjusted for a bum 2nd quarter?
Views? 2nd quarter performancee better than expected, with
or without correction?
=================================
Luke Lang:
" SOX
(Philadelphia semi index) is also at a near-term high."
=================================
Warren Kent:
Am puzzled by SOX near term high in such a volatile mkt.
I thought all sensible D-RAM semi-conductor stocks were
at their peak before Dec. Views? Seems like bad timing
to get in now here?
=================================
EARNINGS REPORTS:
Does anyone have an efficient way of accurately getting
good information on earnings reports well in advance?
------------------------------
From: "Dean Edwards" <d_edwa00@ihug.co.nz>
Date: Sun, 12 Jan 1997 13:25:10 +1300
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Market indicators and their collective impact?
I will try to answer some of your questions as best I can:
> Warren Kent: Is this guy completely out of high technology?
> I heard he long ago washed his hands of this current
> hi-tech market attitude.
I try to keep tabs on Jim Rogers. He writes a column for Worth magazine.
He is bearish on the US stock market and thinks it is headed for a fall. I
beleive he has been investing in the overseas stock markets. You have to
remember he is an Under-Value Investor. I doubt if he would be investing
in the high-tech sector. He only invests in industries or companies that
have
usually been in a major slump/turnaround. He considers the US stock market
as a whole overpriced and that overseas markets based on fundamentals
are far cheaper.
> BTW, What is the change this
> year in Fidelity Fund Mgrs. market buy?
On the mutual funds, you will have to dig out the information for yourself.
Natural resources was ranked number one for the year and this is where I
obtained part of my source of information.
http://www.stocksmart.com/ows-bin/owa/mF.g
> Rails up, and upward metal movement? Aluminum and copper really
> breaking out from 200 day downswings? Is this THE
> beginning bear indicator? I heard the "R" word expected
> from one CEO the other day.
I don't know enough to answer that question or have an opinion.
> On the other hand, the diversity of this market is tough to read.
> I'm not averse to superstition and numerology when citing
> Hirsch's (7) in 1997 as a haunted stock market year; the
> triple witching year?
Persoanlly I don't believe in superstition, numerology and astrology etc.
to guide me in the stock market. But on the other side of the coin, if
enough people believe it, then it is a self fulfilling prophecy. Take for
example
the 13th of Friday or Black Friday that is suppose to be an omen in Western
culture. It pays to be aware of these things. I believe the Chinese
consider
the number 8 a lucky number and it is suppose to bring good fortune or is
it
the number 9? So I wouldn't be shorting their stock market in the year 1998
or 1999, because you would expect the market to be bullish that year and
stocks to boom in price!
> Isn't the food sector and utilities turning up a classic O'Neill
> signal of money shift from high growth to safe stocks? McDonalds is
> not doing very well this year. Pepsi restaurants are not doing
> all that well. I think it was pizza hut with some reduced sales.
> I'm interested in the utilities though, my hunch is that some may
> do better than people think this year: mixed year from June on?
Yes food and utilities are classic defensive stocks. I read a report that
the restaurant industry used to be in the double digits for growth. But now
this
industry is slowing down into the single digits. Investor Peter Lynch
believes one day it will be a non growth industry and I am in agreement
with his analysis. That the restaurant market is slowly getting saturated,
to the point where it will only grow as fast as the US Gross Domestic
Product. But this doesn't mean you still won't find those fast-growers
within that industry. Just as the women's clothing fashion industry is
forever changing with time, restaurants are dropped and new ones come into
prominence. As I understand it, there has been a shift away from
the baby-boomer fast food outlets to the more family type orientated
restaurants.
McDonalds and Pizza Hut are not exactly wholesome food for a young family.
Steak houses seem to be the rage or is it fad at the moment?
It would be interesting to speculate what type of restaurant the ageing
population in the US will be dining at, in the 21st century!? Will they be
buying cheap take-away food or living longer with plenty of money and
splashing out at an up market restaurant? It is a statistical fact that
richer people live longer than poorer people.
I wouldn't know anything thing about utilities or what is happening in that
sector. I have found the US stock market just to gigantic to keep tabs on
everything. But a pooling of resources like this CANSLIM forum helps.
------------------------------
From: charles bumpass <charlesb@flex.net>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 1997 20:17:10 -0600
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stops
Thanks for the advice Nick...
I have been making terrible decisions lately. I has been awful since
when ever
Greenspan made his speech. I have been stopped out at the market low
only to
see the stock rise back up the same day. I may just be getting sloppy.
I have done best when following CANSLIM. So I went back to it this
week. I chose
AFCX...
EPS 96
RS: 94
%Ann. Grow. :+52%
%Qtr Eps Chg:+50% up
Technical conditions:
Just broke out of 1 year cup on 12/19. It went sideways for
awhile then Broke out again on New high with Good volume on 12/31/96.
I Bought at 26 on 1/2/97.
I entered a stop at 23.
It went up at first..HI: 27 1/4. But again...wham...I loose.
I was stopped out at 22 1/2.
Any Ideas what happened to my pick? I feel it is because I bought while
the stock
was gapping up. I think it would be simular to an O'neil sell signal.
p106. #31
"Sell on new price highs off a wide and loose, erratic chart price
formation."
>Nick wrote:
> It will take you much longer than two months to get a handle on investing
> regardless of the system you choose. Pick a system you are philosophically
> and "stomachly" in agreement with.
When y'all (I'm from Texas) get on a losing streak...What do you do?
Keep trading?
Call it quits for awhile? I'm thinking of cashing in and taking my lose
and try again
later this year.
I have lost $2000.00 real money...not to mention I let $2000.00 paper
profits slip away.
I know that every lose in the beginning hurts more than later.
And to make matters worse...the Dow keeps making new highs.
As for as the M is concerned in Canslim, I am wondering too if we are
near a top
since the dow is going up, but the rest of the market does not seem to
be
keeping up.
------------------------------
From: "tom worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 1997 22:09:57 -0500
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Losing streaks
Sorry to hear of the losses, Charles. Yes it can be most frustrating when
you do your homework, think you are making the right decisions, and still
lose money. The market can be a very humbling place. I have never had all
my portfolio in CANSLIM stocks, I personally have always had a bent for
value plays, esp the microcaps, so typically hold several and watch many
more. Right now, between my IRA and my trading acct, I have one NYSE, one
CANSLIM, and three micros. The CANSLIM is only half of the position I
intend to have, bot it as it broke new highs, then it pulled back a little.
Am waiting, will either sell for small loss or add to the position after it
tells me what it intends to do. I am looking for another CANSLIM to add
next week, but no decision yet.
As I have said before, to understand "M" you must look beyond the indexes
and the large cap stocks. You must also weigh the underlying causes of the
January effect.
I have had losing streaks that lasted most of a year. The important thing
to remember is that each trade is different, don't do one to make up for a
prior loss. Also don't start thinking that you have to make up all the loss
on the next one. Sometimes, just selling one for a profit is necessary to
rebuild confidence without worrying about whether it may go higher still.
Don't look back.
tom w
- ----------
> From: charles bumpass <charlesb@flex.net>
> To: canslim@xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stops
> Date: Saturday, January 11, 1997 9:17 PM
>
> I have been making terrible decisions lately. I has been awful since
> when ever
> Greenspan made his speech. I have been stopped out at the market low
> only to
> see the stock rise back up the same day. I may just be getting sloppy.
>
> I have done best when following CANSLIM. So I went back to it this
> week
> I Bought at 26 on 1/2/97.
> I entered a stop at 23.
>
> It went up at first..HI: 27 1/4. But again...wham...I loose.
> I was stopped out at 22 1/2.
>
> Any Ideas what happened to my pick? I feel it is because I bought while
> the stock
> was gapping up. I think it would be simular to an O'neil sell signal.
> p106. #31
> "Sell on new price highs off a wide and loose, erratic chart price
> formation."
> When y'all (I'm from Texas) get on a losing streak...What do you do?
> Keep trading?
> Call it quits for awhile?
> As for as the M is concerned in Canslim, I am wondering too if we are
> near a top
> since the dow is going up, but the rest of the market does not seem to
> be
> keeping up.
------------------------------
From: Johan Van Houtven <Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be>
Date: Sun, 12 Jan 1997 13:22:57 +0100
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Taking Profits
40% up now? I 1 week, 1 month, 1 year, 1 decenium? If it is less that 1 year
I would not wait for the earnings, unless I was pretty sure about what they
would be.
You might want to ask yourself this question: Why take the risk?
>On Fri, 10 Jan 1997 19:33:43 -0600 Chris Beauregard <cbeaux@airmail.net>
>writes:
>>I have a question regarding the previous comments regarding the
>>missing
>>earnings estimates. Considering the this and what appears to be an
>>increased volatility of the market, would it be wiser to sell one of
>>my
>>stocks (that is currently up 40%) prior to next week's earnings
>>annoucement or to wait. This may not be enough specific information
>>to
>>go on, but I am mainly looking for a general strategy.
>>
>
>
------------------------------
From: "tom worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Date: Sun, 12 Jan 1997 08:51:35 -0500
Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Market Timing Model Using Historical Earnings Estimates
Oh no, someone else besides me believes in this "aging bull"!!! Hate it
when the thinking starts going bullish. Oh well.
Thought everyone would gain from this item as it presents another viewpoint
to valuation, in this case a general measure of the stock vs the bond mkt.
In addition, this website also offers historical earnings data which may be
a good resource tool. I haven't checked out the site yet, but will do so
later.
tom w
- ----------
> From: Edward E. Murphy <ted@pdgm.com>
> Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
> Subject: Market Timing Model Using Historical Earnings Estimates
> Date: Wednesday, January 08, 1997 4:53 PM
>
> I'm bringing a market-timing model to the attention of this newsgroup
> because I want to generate some interest in the idea of historical
> earnings estimates with a constant time horizon. Charts of constant time
> horizon historical earnings estimates are available only at
MarketPlayer's
> website (http://www.marketplayer.com).
>
> Paradigm Investment Services, the parent company of MarketPlayer, sells a
> sector selection product to institutional equity managers focusing on the
> U.S. equities market. One part of the product is a market timing model
> based on the equity earnings yield in the U.S. stock market vs the yields
> of U.S. bonds.
>
> Stock Yield greater than (>) Bond Yield -> Buy Stocks
> Bond Yield greater than (>) Stock Yield -> Buy Bonds
>
> This model is purely driven by this single valuation idea (relative
> yield), no momentum or technical factors.
>
> Our model has been correct in 6 out of the 7 Sell signals generated over
> the last 30 years. Its currently posting a Buy signal, as it has been
> since June of 1992. Here are all the signals over the last 30 years
> (first Sell signal was 10/69):
>
> Sell Sell Buy Buy # %Price
> Date Price Date Price Months Return
>
> 10/69 97.24 06/70 77.72 8 -20.1%
> 07/73 108.22 11/73 95.96 4 -11.3%
> 11/80 140.52 11/81 126.35 12 -10.1%
> 08/83 164.44 02/84 157.06 5 -4.5%
> 06/87 304.00 11/87 230.30 5 -24.2%
> 05/90 361.23 09/90 306.05 4 -15.3%
> 05/91 389.83 06/92 408.14 13 +4.7%
> Still a Buy Signal - Current SP500 price: $748
>
> If you've screwed around with long term market timing models, you know
> this is pretty unique. Particularly because this valuation model still
> has a Buy signal, and its based on single very simple relative valuation
> factor.
>
> Why does this model still work, while the other valuation driven market
> timing models have failed to stick with this massive bull market? Mainly
> because the other timing models use reported earnings to derive their
> historical E/P yield, and that's unfortunately proven worthless. You
have
> to use bottom-up aggregated earnings estimates.
>
> Here are the three tricks behind the success to this simple model:
>
> 1. We use bottom up aggregated historical earnings estimates with a
> constant time horizon of six (6) months for our stock earnings yield
after
> 12/78. Prior to that period, we use trailing reported earnings from
> Standard and Poors.
>
> 2. We use the average of the 30 day US Treasury Bill and 3 Mo Treasury
> Bond for the bond earnings yield.
>
> 3. The Sell Signal is generated when the stock earnings yield is 0.50%
> lower than the bond yield. The Buy Signal is generated when the stock
> earnings yield is 0.50% higher than the bond yield. This is a common
> practice of establishing a Buy/Neutral/Sell oscillator range.
>
> Here's how the indicator shapes up as of today's close:
>
> S&P 500 Price: $748
> 6/97e EPS: $43.66
> Stock Yield: 5.84%
>
> US 30 Yr Bond Yield: 6.84%
> US 91 Day T-Bill Yield: 5.14%
> Average Treasury Yield: 5.99%
>
> Current Relative Yield: -0.15%
> (Sell signal generated at -0.50%)
>
> For the chart showing all the Buy/Sell signals using this indicator, go
> to:
>
> http://www.marketplayer.com/misc.invest.stocks/market-timing.html
>
> Ted Murphy
> Paradigm Investment Services (dba MarketPlayer)
>
> **** Free Sponsored Access ****
> For free sponsored access to the entire MarketPlayer website, including
> charts of historical earnings estimates for 3,800 companies and over 100
> custom indices, register for MarketPlayer at
> http://www.marketplayer.com/sponsor/investorama.
>
> invest-o-rama! is sponsoring the invest-o-rama! HedgeHog Competition
> beginning Friday, Jan 17th at 4:00 pm EDT.
>
>
------------------------------
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