ftp.xmission.com/2014.06.ftp.xmission.com.tar/ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/archive/canslim.9809

Internet Message Format | 1998-09-30 | 695KB

From: "Alex" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] how to short Nasdaq Index
Date: 01 Sep 1998 12:35:51 +0200

Hi,

are there any investment vehicles that let one short the Nasdaq-index like
Diamonds, Spiders and such (DIA, SPY, MDY) let you short the other indexes
on NYSE???

thank you,
Alexander Herrmann eMail: [e-mail]
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Don't look forward to the day you stop suffering, because when it comes
you'll know you're dead.

 - Tennessee Williams


-



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From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recession, "M"
Date: 01 Sep 1998 11:09:46 +0200

>CSCO and DELL are stoppable:  down
>12-13/16 and 18-3/4 respectively.

From a short term perspective: Yes.

But if you bought DELL in Jan 98 in the low 40s, you are still showing a
very respectable profit! Same goes for CSCO, although somewhat less
spectacular. :). The fact that you would still be showing a profit is the
really important part IMHO.

Don't know about others, but I'm learning something from these facts.





-- Johan Van Houtven



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From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article
Date: 01 Sep 1998 11:24:59 +0200

>Does WON mention waiting for the averages to clear the 50dma?
>
>Mike

I don't think so. I haven't seen WON saying that anywhere.

It was just my observation form looking at he NASDAQ chart, when the 50MA
was actually still in the 1850 area, a few days ago. You have the middle
leg of the W in that area. Although calling that the middle leg of the W
*now* is very silly I think. Let's first cope with the 200MA resistance. :-)

I've never seen nor studied about a correction like this. It will be most
interesting. Anyone out there that has gone through a correction of this
magnitude?







-- Johan Van Houtven



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From: Brian Nash <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article
Date: 01 Sep 1998 06:36:52 -0700

I went through '87 and '90. Had only one position in '87, too stupid to let
it go. Didn't know anything. It worked out in the end, though.

'90 was a grinding thing as the Dow fell from 3300 to 2300 while we waited
for the war to begin. Of course, like now, many individual stocks were down
far more than that. It didn't resolve itself until we invaded and the
outcome became clear.

Our financials in '90 reminded me a lot of Japan's now. There was a bear
raid on a bank every day for probably 6 or 7 months. Citibank was daily
rumored to be on the verge of declaring bankruptcy. They were pariahs, like
the oils or golds are treated now. Not long after, I think late 1991 or
early 1992 CCI traded at $9 a share. It would've been an ideal time to buy
the financials. The fundamentals were far scarier than now. Books abounded
on how to pick the most financially secure banks for your savings.

In 1990, the markets only resolved themselves after the world straightened
itself out. Now, there's much more to resolve: Japan, Latin America,
Clinton, Russia, Canada, the Pacific Rim, commodity prices, and so on. This
is why I'm not sanguine about a quick recovery.

> -----Original Message-----
> From:    Johan Van Houtven [SMTP:[e-mail]]
> Sent:    Tuesday, September 01, 1998 5:25 AM
> To:    [e-mail]
> Subject:    RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article
>
> >Does WON mention waiting for the averages to clear the 50dma?
> >
> >Mike
>
> I don't think so. I haven't seen WON saying that anywhere.
>
> It was just my observation form looking at he NASDAQ chart, when the 50MA
> was actually still in the 1850 area, a few days ago. You have the middle
> leg of the W in that area. Although calling that the middle leg of the W
> *now* is very silly I think. Let's first cope with the 200MA resistance.
> :-)
>
> I've never seen nor studied about a correction like this. It will be most
> interesting. Anyone out there that has gone through a correction of this
> magnitude?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -- Johan Van Houtven
>
>
>
> -

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From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how to short Nasdaq Index
Date: 01 Sep 1998 15:01:44 GMT

On Tue, 1 Sep 1998 12:35:51 +0200, you wrote:

:Hi,
:
:are there any investment vehicles that let one short the Nasdaq-index =
like
:Diamonds, Spiders and such (DIA, SPY, MDY) let you short the other =
indexes
:on NYSE???
:
:thank you,
:Alexander Herrmann eMail: [e-mail]
:-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D=
-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-=3D-
:Don't look forward to the day you stop suffering, because when it comes
:you'll know you're dead.
:
: - Tennessee Williams
:
Dunno,  but...

"Man was made for joy and woe, and when we this rightly know, safely
through the world we go."  -- William Blake


-Dan
[e-mail]

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From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's Wrong! Article
Date: 01 Sep 1998 11:26:38 -0400

At 11:24 AM 9/1/98 +0200, you wrote:
>>Does WON mention waiting for the averages to clear the 50dma?
>>
>>Mike
>
>I don't think so. I haven't seen WON saying that anywhere.
>
>It was just my observation form looking at he NASDAQ chart, when the 50MA
>was actually still in the 1850 area, a few days ago. You have the middle
>leg of the W in that area. Although calling that the middle leg of the W
>*now* is very silly I think. Let's first cope with the 200MA resistance. :-)
>
>I've never seen nor studied about a correction like this. It will be most
>interesting. Anyone out there that has gone through a correction of this
>magnitude?
>
>-- Johan Van Houtven

I survived the crash of Oct 87, -22% in one day.
However relevant it may be is questionable.

This is different. We've never been here before. This time, this day, this
trade has never before been considered with the current events surrounding
the decision.

However, human emotions are pretty reliable in their extremes.

I've been giving the technical formations some thought considering the
emotion that now has been generated. I want to give WON credit for
describing the emotion involved with 'V' .vs. 'W' formations, but can't
quote Chapter, Verse at this time. I will look it up later, however, as
emotion is heightened, so is the likelihood of a 'V' shaped bottom. They
are also more indicative of a selling climax associated with severe
corrections or outright crashes. The 'W' bottom I believe is more often
associated with relatively minor corrections. Where there is less certainty
from either side. Kind of like a tug-o-war.

The current damage created will take time to filter through and find
reasonable base structures to mount more than a technical bounce to a
nearby technical support line or moving average. Meanwhile the risk is very
great. The markets tendencies have been exposed. Volatility rules!

Best Regards,
Frank Wolynski


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From: Scott Vickery <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how to short Nasdaq Index
Date: 01 Sep 1998 12:20:30 -0400

I believe that options are written on all of the major indexes in which
case you could buy a put option on the Nasdaq.

Very risky, and not neccessarily high payoff, FWIR (Is that a real email
acronym, From What I Read :) ).

Scott

Alex wrote:

> Hi,
>
> are there any investment vehicles that let one short the Nasdaq-index
> like
> Diamonds, Spiders and such (DIA, SPY, MDY) let you short the other
> indexes
> on NYSE???
>
> thank you,
> Alexander Herrmann eMail: [e-mail]
> -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
> =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
> Don't look forward to the day you stop suffering, because when it
> comes
> you'll know you're dead.
>
>  - Tennessee Williams
>
> -




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From: Jack Lykins <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Free Chart/Graphs  Site
Date: 31 Aug 1998 21:14:52 -0400

To All Canslimers:

Now introducing free, Java-based stock and fund charts - the most
powerful
charts on the web. For the first time ever, draw trendlines, plot
multiple
indicators, compare stocks......all for free.

All you need is a recent browser (such as version 4 of Netscape or
Internet Explorer), and go to:

http://www.ProphetCharts.com

I also us this company to obtain end-of-day data for SuperCharts. Prices
are al little low than Dail Data but cover is also a little less.

Jack Lykins






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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Price/Sales & IBD article
Date: 01 Sep 1998 16:59:01 -0700 (PDT)



<<Does anyone know of a free site which scans for price/sales
ratios?>>

Here you go, Jans:

http://www.dailystocks.net/dsscreen.html

--Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


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From: "John Adair, M.D." <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] woodard's page
Date: 01 Sep 1998 20:14:13 -0500

will some one tell me if Ian Woodard still has a page and If so what is
his email add
address.
John Adair


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From: Scott Vickery <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 01 Sep 1998 21:55:12 -0400

Ok,  I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my decision on
which charting software to use without trying them all out, so I got the 30
day trial of TC2000.

My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM.  Or, more
likely, an approximation of CASLI?

Thanks,
Scott


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From: Scott Vickery <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] woodard's page
Date: 01 Sep 1998 21:56:19 -0400

Don't have his email address, but his web page is:

http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm

At 08:14 PM 9/1/98 -0500, you wrote:
>will some one tell me if Ian Woodard still has a page and If so what is
>his email add
>address.
>John Adair
>
>
>-
>
>


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From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 01 Sep 1998 22:02:52 -0400

What a beautiful reversal day.  Not a gap down open flushing, but a
solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow
through.  New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close.

Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in
my book.  WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation
signals.  The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon
a reversal low of these proportions.

Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never seen
it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn.  Water cooler, radio,
newspaper, this group, etc.

Pleasant Noises.

Jeff

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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] woodard's page
Date: 01 Sep 1998 19:19:11 -0700 (PDT)



<<Don't have his email address, but his web page is:

http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm>>

In addition to the above, the HGS forum address is
http://www.wallstreetcity.com/talk/roundtables.htm

His e-mail address is [e-mail] (incidentally, it's Woodward).

Those of you who don't ordinarily follow the HGS forum may want to
read the postings made since last Thursday.  You may find them
enlightening.

--Db




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



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From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Farmer
Date: 01 Sep 1998 22:23:48 -0400

Gonna paper trade the Farmer system on the mini-value line futures
contract with this big reversal today.  Couldn't get my account funded
in time.

Open a 1 lot MV8U at 766 after the cash closed, initial stop loss at 713
(may correct that with some updated guidance from the Farmer).  Will
pyramid the position on 1% on volume days in the Nas within 3-10 days of
today's low.  Stops pulled up under the low of a distribution day (say
half the day's range below the low).

Want to follow along?  It's pure, unadulterated WON "M" trade, dude.

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From: Dave Cameron <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Is everyone affected by the East?
Date: 01 Sep 1998 21:39:48 -0500

I have to laugh at the crowd mentality these days.   I'm still
partly invested, and it is all in small caps.   In fact, it
is all in small caps with either no or very little presence
outside of the U.S.   For instance, the local restaurant down
the street is public (its a chain).   They've dove even farther
than the general indices.   I'd venture to say that the situation
with Russia doesn't affect their sales in the slightest (unless
my next door neighbor gives up going there to send money to
his relatives in Japan...).   Yet, the stock is down almost 50%
in the last month.

Where am I going with this?   Welll... I tend to be looking
at stocks that have a U.S. presence, are relatively small,
have a high EPS rank, and very little international presence.
In addition, these stocks have virtually no debt - given
the uncertainty of the economic situation.
If the Eastern part of the world continues to be mired in
a mess, these would seem to be the companies to own.

I could be wrong - Coca-Cola may continue to sail along -
I've shunned big caps all year and look where its got me -
ready for a loss carryover...but the above paragraph, well,
that's my current approach.

The kicker:  Its not really CANSLIM - these stocks may have
been CANSLIM in April - but the RS has tanked since then.


Later,

Dave Cameron

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From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Asian markets
Date: 02 Sep 1998 01:05:39 -0400

Pretty much all the Asian mkts are responding to the bounce in the US
mkts today, and the strong showing in Japan last night and again
currently. Sets the stage for a strong rally in Europe starting in a
few hours, followed by the US and LATAM mkts (which were mixed today).
The plunge in the dollar against virtually every major currency
appears to mirror the vulnerability of the US mkts, economy, and the
"safe haven" environment it professed. which was revealed over the
past few days in particular.

VIX, after slowing to about 30, shot up to over 48 just a day ago,
then retreated to 39 today. Highly volatile, these mks, a fertile
hunting ground for day traders or Kmart style "value shoppers", but
treacherous territory for CANSLIMers. Internet stocks have clearly
shown the volatility that accompanies stocks lacking solid
fundamentals, even when mostly in favor.

Volume, and point moves, are indeed impressive. NYSE hit a record vol
of 1.2 billion shares today, a new record, on its rebound. In the past
two trading days, we saw NYSE and Nasdaq show their 2nd largest (or
record) point moves in history, in both directions!!

Cash is making a fast exit from money mkt and bond funds back into
equities. The question is whether this is going to be a one or two day
surge, or a new trend developing.

In the past two trading days I have seen a sig amount of mutual fund
selling, mostly in the more aggressive funds. I have also seen a
limited amount of buying, mostly in the big cap funds. I expect any
further rally to be shown once again in the most liquid of stocks, not
optimistic about small caps despite their far superior earnings growth
rate, better valuations in terms of PE, and higher valuations measured
in sales and earnings growth rates.

Liquidity will still be valued more heavily than fundamentals at least
till the volatility settles down, IMHO.

Tom W



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From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Farmer
Date: 02 Sep 1998 02:33:58 -0700 (PDT)

"Want to follow along?"  If I'd like to color the NAZ bars on my IBD
page,  would the 27th, 28th and 31 be blue and the 1st purple?

TM




---Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net> wrote:
>
> Gonna paper trade the Farmer system on the mini-value line futures
> contract with this big reversal today.  Couldn't get my account funded
> in time.
>
> Open a 1 lot MV8U at 766 after the cash closed, initial stop loss at
713
> (may correct that with some updated guidance from the Farmer).  Will
> pyramid the position on 1% on volume days in the Nas within 3-10
days of
> today's low.  Stops pulled up under the low of a distribution day (say
> half the day's range below the low).
>
> Want to follow along?  It's pure, unadulterated WON "M" trade, dude.
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



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From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Asian markets
Date: 02 Sep 1998 07:25:23 -0400

At 01:05 9/2/98 -0400, you wrote:
>
>Cash is making a fast exit from money mkt and bond funds back into
>equities. The question is whether this is going to be a one or two day
>surge, or a new trend developing.
>
>In the past two trading days I have seen a sig amount of mutual fund
>selling, mostly in the more aggressive funds. I have also seen a
>limited amount of buying, mostly in the big cap funds. I expect any
>further rally to be shown once again in the most liquid of stocks, not
>optimistic about small caps despite their far superior earnings growth
>rate, better valuations in terms of PE, and higher valuations measured
>in sales and earnings growth rates.
>
>Liquidity will still be valued more heavily than fundamentals at least
>till the volatility settles down, IMHO.
>
>Tom W
>

Someone on another forum I frequent stated their Waterhouse Broker told him
they had tons of Margin Calls to execute on Tuesday. Swamped. No doubt!

In todays IBD Investor's  Corner, pg A19, Loren Fleckenstein (who I usually
put a wreath of garlic around my neck to read) seems to be following the
WON observations in regarding bottoming processes. Speaks of the rally
follow through day and watching for quality of leadership in the breakout.

There is also a very nice graphic of the % stocks beneath their 200day mov
avg. This chart contains data back to 1982, so is complete enough that it
should help provide some insight. One thing that stands out to me is the
often cited 3 year up cycle of a Bull market. Their is also a table which
lists Bear market starts and durations for the past century.

Congrads to him/her, Loren Fleckenstein. This article is worth reading!

Frank Wolynski



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From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Rut
Date: 02 Sep 1998 09:38:03 EDT



Since late July, the Russell 2000 has moved by more than 1% on 10 out
of 13 trading days, and in the past nine sessions alone, the small-stock
index has moved more on a percentage basis than either the DJ or the S&P
500 on
seven occasions, the Wall Street Journal will say today.  It will also note
that "the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks rode up 7.33, or
1.81%, to 411.29, but the barometer remains the only major stock-market index
that is in negative territory for the year, down about 6%. The Nasdaq
Composite Index jumped 37.08, or 2.04%, to 1855.12 .... in the past 30
trading
days the Russell 2000 has moved, on average, 1.3% per day, up from a
600-day average of 0.61%, according to data compiled by Schroder & Co. That
compares with an average daily move of 1.2% in the S&P index of 500
blue-chip stocks, which has a 600-day average of 0.7%."  The standard
deviation of the Russell 2000 hit a six-year high this past week, on
an annualized basis, says ITG Inc., a New York brokerage firm. The
Russell's volatility also moved higher than the S&P 500's for the
first time since September 1996. Part of it has to do with uncertainty
about earnings. According to
the WSJ,in the second quarter, the Russell 2000's average earnings surprise
was 3% below expectations. whereas First Call reports stocks in the Standard
& Poor's 500-stock index reported earnings 1.8% above expectations.


I was told by a guy who said the Russell leads the Dow and S&P. He said he
has been making money with options on stocks for a number of years watching
this relationship. He sent the above post where he got it I have no clue
but interesting theory.

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From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Farmer
Date: 02 Sep 1998 09:47:01 +0200


>Want to follow along?  It's pure, unadulterated WON "M" trade, dude.

Keep us posted, Jeffry. A quick review of your thoughts about your position
every day would me most interesting.

I will not be following along. Even if I wanted I couldn't, as a can't
trade futures. But I'd very much like to track your thoughts on your
position.




-- Johan Van Houtven



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From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 02 Sep 1998 10:40:36 +0200

>What a beautiful reversal day.  Not a gap down open flushing, but a
>solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow
>through.  New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close.
>
>Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in
>my book.  WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation
>signals.  The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon
>a reversal low of these proportions.

Operative words here *IMHO* "we may get a few false starts".  (Opinion)

I'd expect a rally to to the 200MA at best. (Opinion)

New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' Utilities
sector. :)

Were is the breadth? But that could change of course, since it is only day
1 now.

Were are the bases to launch from? I don't see any.

Were are the new leading sectors? Still to early of course.

Sentiment: Bearish. So that is a definite positive.

Just, some extra noises, although maybe a bit less pleasant. :)

We have day 1 and we have the bearish sentiment, so I fully understand and
admire your determination to start counting and playing 'M'.

Hope you don't mind me being a interested 'spectator' with only some extra
noises to contribute.







-- Johan Van Houtven



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From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM]  "M"
Date: 03 Sep 1998 01:56:39 +1200

I have been investing in the US market for less than 5 years and never
experienced a rally in one day of this magnitude. A staggering 1.2 billion
shares of volume on the New York Exchange on September 1. Quoting from CNN
source VINCE FARRELL, SPEARS, BENZAK, SALOMON & FARRELL:  "Thirty-eight
percent of stocks on the New York Exchange are (still) down  40-percent
decline, and on the NASDAQ, half the stocks are down 50 percent. " It has
already been noted by CANSLIMERs that only the big caps have been
performing lately.  I was looking for parallels in history and noticed some
some remarkable similarities with the bull market of  the late 1920's.
Here is some food for thought.

This excerpt below is from the book "Once in Golconda"
The 1929 boom was, in fact, quite a narrow and selective one. It was a boom
of the handful of stocks that figured in the daily calculation of the
Dow-Jones and the New York Times indexes, and that was why thoses
well-publicized indexes were at record highs. It was also a boom of the most
actively traded stocks bearing the names of the most celebrated companies.
But it was empahatically not a boom of dozens of secondary stocks in which
many perhaps as many investors were interested. As a matter of fact, a good
part of the stock market had been more or less depressed all through 1929.
The soaring of the averages made a rousing  spectacle. The persistence of
the ideal that all stocks were going through the roof in the autumn of 1929
is a monument to the power of a popular myth. Tuesday Sepetember 3, 1929
-the day the market averages reached the all time highs that was to endure
for a quarter of a century.

Wall Street's bull market collapsed (yesterday) with a detonation heard
round the world
Loses ranged from 23.5 points in active stock exchange issues... It was a
day of tumultuous, excited market happenings. The newspaper was the sober
New York Times, the date was June 12 1928 (repeat 1928)

A year preceding the Wall Street Cash of 1929,  a major correction occurred.
What happened 1 September 1998 is the start of another bull market run, in
my opinion. For how long. is anyones guess. My adivce is to buy the big cap
stocks!

The other important detail  is to watch the American banking sector like a
hawk. Already the US banks are declaring huge losses (write offs) with
Russia.

"Speaking from a perspective of sixty years in banking and business. I have
to say
that banking is the surest, safest and easiest business I have seen or
known... if
your're not actually stupid or dishonest it's hard not to make money in
banking"
-George Moore writing in a Bankers Life of his time with Citibank

History repeats itself in the year  1998.  The figures I have, is upwards of
US$300-$400 billion dollar loans to Russia, world wide are affected.

Citibank  invested in Russia in 1920's. Citibank faced at that time, a
potential loss of 80 percent of its capital. They learned theirt lesson
years ago, with the communist revolution. George Moor chairman during the
1930's rescued Citibank from bankruptcy. Moore, tough and talented saleman,
always kept his 1930's experiences at the front of his mind. They were
reflected in his business decisions, the strategy of the bank that he
influenced or led for two decades, and his insistence that senior
Citibankers not only knew of the bank's past mistakes, but why the decisons
looked right at the time.

I have been informed that China is another time bomb waiting to explode. The
property
bubble in China has collapsed. Hundreds of half completed or empty buildings
and 80 percent of the loans have come  from European banking! Don't under
estimate the signifcance of the banking sector, it is the the "life blood"
of capitalism. Without it, everything comes to a halt. You will be aware of
this, when you realise that Japan and the whole of Asia are in a mess,  with
their banks collasping or refusing to declare their losses, hoping to ride
it out! You can't lend out money when your technically
insolvent. The bsiness cycle contracts.

I believe that American regulators assess the health of their charges
through a CAMEL
rating, in which 1 is the highest and 5 the lowest. CAMEL ratings are never
disclosed,
for the obvious reason that they wish to prevent a public panic and a run on
the banks (publics) money. 3-4 and the board is asked to sign a letter of
agreement, which is a memorandum setting out what the regulator's expect of
the bank's management. Such a letter is what the Citibank board had to sign
in 1992.

I happen to be a Citibank customer in New Zealand, so I have a personal
interest in these matters. Unles you have been through a crash, the first
sign of trouble is the banking sector, which did occurred in New Zealand in
1987. Banks don't go under today, thank goodness, they either consolidate
and the government regulates heavily or bales them out as a last resort. A
recession usually  kicks in or at least slows the economy down as a result.

Throughout  the 1920's, the failure of several hundred banks each year in
the United States was commonplace. When 346 banks failed during the first 6
months of 1929,
no one took much notice.


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 02 Sep 1998 10:49:50 EDT

In a message dated 9/2/98 9:46:55 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail] writes:

<< New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' Utilities
 sector. :) >>

I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is different
this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows almost
always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also, the new high
list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time. Couple this
with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list at a four
year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet that WON is
sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing follows
though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a heathly base.
Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to buy these
lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market breadth. If
this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap tech.

DCsquires

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: rolatzi <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated earnings
Date: 02 Sep 1998 13:26:32 -0700 (PDT)

Does anyone know where I can find a web site posting the estimated
earnings for the S&P500?  I am interested in using the difference
between the future estimated earnings of SP500 and the yield on
Treasuries to help determine the market outlook (M).
Thanks,
rolatzi




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated
Date: 02 Sep 1998 16:42:19 -0400

Can't help you directly on the estimated earnings thing, though I am sure
it is out there.  However ...

For someone who uses a similar model to value the market - take a look here
===>
http://www.magma.ca/~davef/    (Dave's Investment World).

He does a very nice job with historical valuations.  As you say, not
Canslim directly - but interesting to know and potentially useful for
thinking about things.  One of my favorite sites.


At 01:26 PM 9/2/98 -0700, you wrote:
>Does anyone know where I can find a web site posting the estimated
>earnings for the S&P500?  I am interested in using the difference
>between the future estimated earnings of SP500 and the yield on
>Treasuries to help determine the market outlook (M).
>Thanks,
>rolatzi
>
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Walter Stock" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 02 Sep 1998 18:11:48 PDT

> Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never see=
n
> it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn.  Water cooler, radio,
> newspaper, this group, etc.
>
> Pleasant Noises.
>
> Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Have been out of the mkt since July except for one mattress stuffer (WMT)=
.
Said final mattress stuffer was sold into the strength on Tuesday for
a 20% gain since spring.  Only other investments are retirement account
offshore bonds (up 8%  since purchase in late July).

Am not saying this to brag  (I took my share of lumps last winter).
I am just saying that I trust this market less than any other I have seen=
.
Perhaps it comes from living in the Canadian commodity-related economy
where the collapse in the stock market has been much worse.
Not to mention the meltdown in the northern peso.

On the positive side, not being invested at present, I had
the time to go visit the biggest seller of business books in Toronto.  =

I was looking for " The Great Crash - 1929" by John Kenneth Galbraith
(a fellow Canadian).  Book had been highly recommended to me.
Usually many copies on  hand.  Sold out.  Taking back-orders.
Looked in other stores.  Sold out.

I take this as a good (contrary) indicator.  Am counting days from Tuesda=
y,
and will check sentiment numbers in tomorrow's (Thursday) IBD.
Till then I am keeping my powder dry.

Walter
(Ursus Borealis)

Oakville, ONT - Canada


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "John Adair, M.D." <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 02 Sep 1998 20:22:43 -0500

Scott
I dont know which version you have. If its version 3You can make some custom
searches but Unless your are proficient at programing you are not likely to be
successful. In version 4( the windows version it is not possible. They do have
quite a few perprogramed searches which are good.I think tc2000 is the simplest
of all and until you get fairly knowledgable it is the best for the early
entry. There are many more sophistocated programs. Stick with tc2000. by the
time its safe for you to buy stock you should be up to speed.
John Adair

Scott Vickery wrote:

> Ok,  I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my decision on
> which charting software to use without trying them all out, so I got the 30
> day trial of TC2000.
>
> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM.  Or, more
> likely, an approximation of CASLI?
>
> Thanks,
> Scott
>
> -


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Off Subject - Foreign Mutual Funds List
Date: 02 Sep 1998 21:43:00 -0400

Here is a partial list of closed-end foreign (non-US) mutual funds. Of
course they are not index funds, so the actual markets may be performing
better or worse than the fund. I use them as a substitute to see how a
market is doing in general.

It looks like the Western European markets are holding up better than most
around the world.  The US is holding up about as well as Europe.  This is
most useful if you have a complete database of stocks (like QPv2, TC2000,
Dial Data, etc.) because these funds trade like stocks and are listed on
the exchanges.  None of these charts look remotely like anything that is a
technical buy from a Canslim point of view (all downtrends).

Best regards,
Craig

Here is the list FWIW:

AF     Argentina Fund
APF    Morgan Stanley Asia-Pacific
BZF    Brazil Fund
cee    Central European Equity Fund
CH     Chile Fund
CHN    China Fund
EF     Europe Fund
EFL    Emerging Mkts Fl Rt Fund
ETF    Emerging Mkts Telecomms Fund
FRF    France Growth Fund
FRG    Emerging Germany Fund
GER    Germany Fund
gf     New Germany Fund
GRR    Asia Tiger Fund
gtf    Aim Eastern Fund
IIF    Morgan Stanley India Inv.
IF     Indonesia Fund
IFN    India Fund
IGF    India Growth Fund
ISL    First Israel Fund
ITA    Italy Fund
IRL    Irish Investment Fund
JOF    Japan OTC Equity Fund
jgf    Jakarta Growth Fund
KIF    Korea Investment Fund
LDF    Latin America Fund
MEF    Emerging Mexico Fund
MF     Malaysia Fund
MXE    Mexico Equity Income Fund
MXF    Mexico Fund
nsa    New South Africa Fund
OST    Austria Fund
PGF    Portugal Fund
SGF    Singapore Fund
SNF    Spain Fund
SWZ    Swiss Helvetia Fund
TEA    Templeton Emerging Mkt. Apprec. Fund
TKF    Turkish Investment Fund
TTF    Thai Fund
TWN    Taiwan Fund
TYW    Taiwan Equity Fund

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Scott Vickery <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 02 Sep 1998 21:53:07 -0400

I am quite proficient at programming, so that would not have been a
problem.  However, I have Version 4.  It is too bad the windows version
doesn't provide that level of screening capability.

Thank you for the advice, though.  I think that I will probably stick with
tc2000, in the short run however.

Scott

At 08:22 PM 9/2/98 -0500, you wrote:
>Scott
>I dont know which version you have. If its version 3You can make some custom
>searches but Unless your are proficient at programing you are not likely
to be
>successful. In version 4( the windows version it is not possible. They do
have
>quite a few perprogramed searches which are good.I think tc2000 is the
simplest
>of all and until you get fairly knowledgable it is the best for the early
>entry. There are many more sophistocated programs. Stick with tc2000. by the
>time its safe for you to buy stock you should be up to speed.
>John Adair
>
>Scott Vickery wrote:
>
>> Ok,  I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my decision on
>> which charting software to use without trying them all out, so I got the 30
>> day trial of TC2000.
>>
>> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
>> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM.  Or, more
>> likely, an approximation of CASLI?
>>
>> Thanks,
>> Scott
>>
>> -
>
>
>-
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "John Adair, M.D." <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:Thanks
Date: 02 Sep 1998 21:10:42 -0500

Thanks for your information on woodard.

Scott Vickery wrote:

> Don't have his email address, but his web page is:
>
> http://sosadvisors.com/ianshome.htm
>
> At 08:14 PM 9/1/98 -0500, you wrote:
> >will some one tell me if Ian Woodard still has a page and If so what is
> >his email add
> >address.
> >John Adair
> >
> >
> >-
> >
> >
>
> -


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rut
Date: 02 Sep 1998 22:04:49 -0400

Don't know nuttin about the theory behind this, but do see one obvious
fallacy in the logic when comparing the percentage earnings surprises.
The 2000 stocks in the index likely have fewer analysts following them
(and many will be repeats) than does the S&P100 in total. Exposure is
one of their biggest problems, very few analysts will even investigate
them, much less share an opinion. The few that do specialize for the
most part in small caps.

As to the volatility nrs, I would actually have expected the
divergence to be far greater considering the lack of liquidity.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>
>
>Since late July, the Russell 2000 has moved by more than 1% on 10 out
>of 13 trading days, and in the past nine sessions alone, the
small-stock
>index has moved more on a percentage basis than either the DJ or the
S&P
>500 on
>seven occasions, the Wall Street Journal will say today.  It will
also note
>that "the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks rode up 7.33, or
>1.81%, to 411.29, but the barometer remains the only major
stock-market index
>that is in negative territory for the year, down about 6%. The Nasdaq
>Composite Index jumped 37.08, or 2.04%, to 1855.12 .... in the past
30
>trading
>days the Russell 2000 has moved, on average, 1.3% per day, up from a
>600-day average of 0.61%, according to data compiled by Schroder &
Co. That
>compares with an average daily move of 1.2% in the S&P index of 500
>blue-chip stocks, which has a 600-day average of 0.7%."  The standard
>deviation of the Russell 2000 hit a six-year high this past week, on
>an annualized basis, says ITG Inc., a New York brokerage firm. The
>Russell's volatility also moved higher than the S&P 500's for the
>first time since September 1996. Part of it has to do with
uncertainty
>about earnings. According to
>the WSJ,in the second quarter, the Russell 2000's average earnings
surprise
>was 3% below expectations. whereas First Call reports stocks in the
Standard
>& Poor's 500-stock index reported earnings 1.8% above expectations.
>
>
>I was told by a guy who said the Russell leads the Dow and S&P. He
said he
>has been making money with options on stocks for a number of years
watching
>this relationship. He sent the above post where he got it I have no
clue
>but interesting theory.
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]  "M"
Date: 02 Sep 1998 22:11:52 -0400

One further comment to add on banks and Russia. Be careful how you
treat the losses they are reporting, note whether these are actual
realized losses, or simply write offs as at least one bank did which
wrote off its Russian exposure at 15 cents on the dollar (most russian
bonds are already trading a bit higher than this). What this does is
keep the bank in conformity with regulators in terms of showing its
"assets" at fair mkt value, gives it some tax sheltering, and could
result in substantial future profits if the assets only rebound to 50
cents on the dollar, since the cost basis is now 15 cents.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>I have been investing in the US market for less than 5 years and
never
>experienced a rally in one day of this magnitude. A staggering 1.2
billion
>shares of volume on the New York Exchange on September 1. Quoting
from CNN
>source VINCE FARRELL, SPEARS, BENZAK, SALOMON & FARRELL:
"Thirty-eight
>percent of stocks on the New York Exchange are (still) down
40-percent
>decline, and on the NASDAQ, half the stocks are down 50 percent. " It
has
>already been noted by CANSLIMERs that only the big caps have been
>performing lately.  I was looking for parallels in history and
noticed some
>some remarkable similarities with the bull market of  the late
1920's.
>Here is some food for thought.
>
>This excerpt below is from the book "Once in Golconda"
>The 1929 boom was, in fact, quite a narrow and selective one. It was
a boom
>of the handful of stocks that figured in the daily calculation of the
>Dow-Jones and the New York Times indexes, and that was why thoses
>well-publicized indexes were at record highs. It was also a boom of
the most
>actively traded stocks bearing the names of the most celebrated
companies.
>But it was empahatically not a boom of dozens of secondary stocks in
which
>many perhaps as many investors were interested. As a matter of fact,
a good
>part of the stock market had been more or less depressed all through
1929.
>The soaring of the averages made a rousing  spectacle. The
persistence of
>the ideal that all stocks were going through the roof in the autumn
of 1929
>is a monument to the power of a popular myth. Tuesday Sepetember 3,
1929
>-the day the market averages reached the all time highs that was to
endure
>for a quarter of a century.
>
>Wall Street's bull market collapsed (yesterday) with a detonation
heard
>round the world
>Loses ranged from 23.5 points in active stock exchange issues... It
was a
>day of tumultuous, excited market happenings. The newspaper was the
sober
>New York Times, the date was June 12 1928 (repeat 1928)
>
>A year preceding the Wall Street Cash of 1929,  a major correction
occurred.
>What happened 1 September 1998 is the start of another bull market
run, in
>my opinion. For how long. is anyones guess. My adivce is to buy the
big cap
>stocks!
>
>The other important detail  is to watch the American banking sector
like a
>hawk. Already the US banks are declaring huge losses (write offs)
with
>Russia.
>
>"Speaking from a perspective of sixty years in banking and business.
I have
>to say
>that banking is the surest, safest and easiest business I have seen
or
>known... if
>your're not actually stupid or dishonest it's hard not to make money
in
>banking"
>-George Moore writing in a Bankers Life of his time with Citibank
>
>History repeats itself in the year  1998.  The figures I have, is
upwards of
>US$300-$400 billion dollar loans to Russia, world wide are affected.
>
>Citibank  invested in Russia in 1920's. Citibank faced at that time,
a
>potential loss of 80 percent of its capital. They learned theirt
lesson
>years ago, with the communist revolution. George Moor chairman during
the
>1930's rescued Citibank from bankruptcy. Moore, tough and talented
saleman,
>always kept his 1930's experiences at the front of his mind. They
were
>reflected in his business decisions, the strategy of the bank that he
>influenced or led for two decades, and his insistence that senior
>Citibankers not only knew of the bank's past mistakes, but why the
decisons
>looked right at the time.
>
>I have been informed that China is another time bomb waiting to
explode. The
>property
>bubble in China has collapsed. Hundreds of half completed or empty
buildings
>and 80 percent of the loans have come  from European banking! Don't
under
>estimate the signifcance of the banking sector, it is the the "life
blood"
>of capitalism. Without it, everything comes to a halt. You will be
aware of
>this, when you realise that Japan and the whole of Asia are in a
mess,  with
>their banks collasping or refusing to declare their losses, hoping to
ride
>it out! You can't lend out money when your technically
>insolvent. The bsiness cycle contracts.
>
>I believe that American regulators assess the health of their charges
>through a CAMEL
>rating, in which 1 is the highest and 5 the lowest. CAMEL ratings are
never
>disclosed,
>for the obvious reason that they wish to prevent a public panic and a
run on
>the banks (publics) money. 3-4 and the board is asked to sign a
letter of
>agreement, which is a memorandum setting out what the regulator's
expect of
>the bank's management. Such a letter is what the Citibank board had
to sign
>in 1992.
>
>I happen to be a Citibank customer in New Zealand, so I have a
personal
>interest in these matters. Unles you have been through a crash, the
first
>sign of trouble is the banking sector, which did occurred in New
Zealand in
>1987. Banks don't go under today, thank goodness, they either
consolidate
>and the government regulates heavily or bales them out as a last
resort. A
>recession usually  kicks in or at least slows the economy down as a
result.
>
>Throughout  the 1920's, the failure of several hundred banks each
year in
>the United States was commonplace. When 346 banks failed during the
first 6
>months of 1929,
>no one took much notice.
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 02 Sep 1998 22:17:01 -0400

The nr of new highs is a lagging indicator, IMO. The extent of "lag"
is directly proportional to the extent of the correction. In an 8-10%
correction, I would normally expect at least several days to a week of
lag. With this correction, both due the severity as well as the lack
of breadth preceding it, I would expect a far greater lag, possibly
several weeks, before the new highs nrs become meaningful.
Nonetheless, was surprised to see the list yesterday, and an even
longer list today, that hit new highs, will be investigating them.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>In a message dated 9/2/98 9:46:55 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
>[e-mail] writes:
>
><< New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting'
Utilities
> sector. :) >>
>
>I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is
different
>this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows
almost
>always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also, the
new high
>list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time.
Couple this
>with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list at
a four
>year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet that
WON is
>sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing
follows
>though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a
heathly base.
>Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to buy
these
>lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market
breadth. If
>this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap
tech.
>
>DCsquires
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400

I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all.
( Here or the other haunts I hang out.)
The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday low, but
today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor.

Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet' was
having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody
really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately.

Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what he was
suggesting!

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:24:38 -0400




>The nr of new highs is a lagging indicator, IMO. The extent of "lag"
>is directly proportional to the extent of the correction. In an 8-10%
>correction, I would normally expect at least several days to a week of
>lag. With this correction, both due the severity as well as the lack
>of breadth preceding it, I would expect a far greater lag, possibly
>several weeks, before the new highs nrs become meaningful.
>Nonetheless, was surprised to see the list yesterday, and an even
>longer list today, that hit new highs, will be investigating them.


Tom,

I must respectfully disagreed. I believe your market experience is quite a
bit longer then mine but in the current market breadth has been a leader not
a laggard. The new highs in the S&P and the NASDAQ came with breadth leading
to the downside and the quadruple bottom that we all thought would hold was
lead downward by market breadth.(new highs new lows, advances and declines)
Even today with the market closing down breadth for once in a long time is
was positive muting the effect of the intraday reversal. Just my opinion,
FWIW.

DCSquires



>><< New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting'
>Utilities
>> sector. :) >>
>>
>>I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is
>different
>>this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows
>almost
>>always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also, the
>new high
>>list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time.
>Couple this
>>with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list at
>a four
>>year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet that
>WON is
>>sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing
>follows
>>though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a
>heathly base.
>>Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to buy
>these
>>lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market
>breadth. If
>>this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap
>tech.
>>
>>DCsquires
>>
>>-
>>
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Dow Transports Revisited
Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:25:38 -0400

The Dow Transports closed at 2702.55.

I believe, and will try to verify that this has violated a very long term
trend line that existed from 1985. If this is true, it could imply very
serious trouble for the market. I am posting a cut/paste of my message
regarding the Transports from 8/13. The Transports have been determined to
not have more than a momentary blip of an up day for 6 weeks. Yesterdays
280+ point gain for the DOW, found the Transports up a whopping 1.26
points. I won't bother with figuring the percentage, it is miniscule.

Perhaps worthy of watching for any hopeful sign of support at this point.
The bad news is the last recognizable support resistance area (after
breaching the long term trend line) is 2300. It should hold at that point.
Yup, another 15% down.

Somehow, within the next few days, we'll find out if this Bull has anything
at all left. I'm not very encouraged anymore.

Frank Wolynski

Here's my earlier post:

Dow Jones Transports Observations/Thoughts/Ramblings:
Price Indicator:     3004.71
50day MOV:           3365.65
200day MOV:          3368.39

The 50day MOV moved beneath the 200day MOV today for the first time in years.
Since 1994 in fact if I am reading Big Charts correctly.

The good news is that it is extended beneath the 200day MOV almost as much
as it was above. Probably within a few percent anyway.

BC shows the index back to 1985 and that is as far I as could look, but the
Index appears to do this every few years or so. Related to the price of Oil?
Maybe. Probably.

Are we at the bottom. I think not, but it is interesting how it has built
bottoms during the past 13 years. Not that this one will be the same, but
the period does embrace two full fledge Bear markets, 1987 and 1994.

I believe in balance in the scales and equal swings in the pendulum.
More or less.
The transport high was put in at 3686.02 on 4/16/98.
The 200day MOV was 3214.57
A difference of roughly 472 points.

Today the index stands at 3004.71
The 200day MOV is 3368.39
A difference of roughly 364 points.

Does this infer an additional 108 point downside potential then a bottom
building? Maybe.
It is interesting that the low reached on 10/28/97 of 2916.43 is approx 88
points away from todays close.

I also find it interesting that the close on 10/27/98 was 3004.58! Within
.13 of todays close! Wowzer.....

If I do all this mumbo jumbo with the high of 4/16/98 instead of the close,
then the separation becomes, 3735.37 - 3214.57, or  520.80.
Then the low figure beneath the 200day MOV becomes 3368.39 - 520.80 or
2847.59.

Another interesting number!
On 8/29/98 the low was 2844.30, pretty close.

There is also a long term trendline that has a first point in late 1994,
then some touching in fall of 1996. This trendline, as best as I can draw
it extends currently to slightly over 2700. Of course time will cause the
trendline value to increase over the coming days and it would not surprise
me to see the value up nearer to 2800 by the time an intersection is
approaching.

I wish I knew the Fibonacci numbers for the last transport advance, the
fall of 96 to the top in early 98. It could be interesting.

I don't have much trouble picturing the transports getting to the levels
indicated above, that implies at least another 150 to 300 points to the
downside. And it appears that would be approximately a 50% retrace of the
advance referenced above.

The transports are certainly starting to take on a hopeless graph shape!
And we all know what that means!

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 02 Sep 1998 23:42:00 -0400

Maybe I failed to state what I meant clearly. Over the last leg up, I
watched the indexes hit new highs, yet on many days the nr of stocks
advancing was overwhelmed by the nr of stocks declining. Likewise, the
nr of stocks making new highs was far surpassed by the nr of stocks
making new lows. What this told me was that the stocks that were still
performing were mostly the ones in the indexes. I would expect to see
mkt averages increase for several days at least before the moving
average of new highs would begin to show an improvement.

I tend to rely only on the 10 day moving averages of new highs/lows
and of up/down volume as it smoothed out the results and gives me a
clearer picture.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>
>
>
>>The nr of new highs is a lagging indicator, IMO. The extent of "lag"
>>is directly proportional to the extent of the correction. In an
8-10%
>>correction, I would normally expect at least several days to a week
of
>>lag. With this correction, both due the severity as well as the lack
>>of breadth preceding it, I would expect a far greater lag, possibly
>>several weeks, before the new highs nrs become meaningful.
>>Nonetheless, was surprised to see the list yesterday, and an even
>>longer list today, that hit new highs, will be investigating them.
>
>
>Tom,
>
>I must respectfully disagreed. I believe your market experience is
quite a
>bit longer then mine but in the current market breadth has been a
leader not
>a laggard. The new highs in the S&P and the NASDAQ came with breadth
leading
>to the downside and the quadruple bottom that we all thought would
hold was
>lead downward by market breadth.(new highs new lows, advances and
declines)
>Even today with the market closing down breadth for once in a long
time is
>was positive muting the effect of the intraday reversal. Just my
opinion,
>FWIW.
>
>DCSquires
>
>
>
>>><< New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting'
>>Utilities
>>> sector. :) >>
>>>
>>>I'm counting just like everyone else but the new high/low list is
>>different
>>>this time. If you look at DG's new high/new low index the new lows
>>almost
>>>always lose momentum and start higher before the reversal. Also,
the
>>new high
>>>list is usaully flat to climbing. This is not the case this time.
>>Couple this
>>>with the new low list hitting a 4 year high and the new high list
at
>>a four
>>>year low and this thing still looks ugly. I would be will to bet
that
>>WON is
>>>sticking with the large institutional growth stocks if this thing
>>follows
>>>though. We must retest the lows for this thing to really have a
>>heathly base.
>>>Since the retest is a highly likely occurence there is no need to
buy
>>these
>>>lows as we will likely see them again with much improved market
>>breadth. If
>>>this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big
cap
>>tech.
>>>
>>>DCsquires
>>>
>>>-
>>>
>>
>>
>>-
>>
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 03 Sep 1998 06:37:40 -0400

Johann wrote:

> Operative words here *IMHO* "we may get a few false starts".  (Opinion)
>
> I'd expect a rally to to the 200MA at best. (Opinion)
>
> New highs yesterday: a few, most of them in the 'exciting' Utilities
> sector. :)
>
> Were is the breadth? But that could change of course, since it is only day
> 1 now.
>
> Were are the bases to launch from? I don't see any.
>
> Were are the new leading sectors? Still to early of course.
>
> Sentiment: Bearish. So that is a definite positive.
>
> Just, some extra noises, although maybe a bit less pleasant. :)
>
> We have day 1 and we have the bearish sentiment, so I fully understand and
> admire your determination to start counting and playing 'M'.
>
> Hope you don't mind me being a interested 'spectator' with only some extra
> noises to contribute.
>

Actually, Johann, these "noises" of yours are exceedingly "pleasant" and
precisely the type I find so encouraging.

Determined I am, but counting is nothing to be admired, as far as I'm
concerned.  It is the process, take it or leave it.  The compulsion to
stay in the market, to not miss out is so strong, it is a necessary part
of the discipline, in my "OPINION".  If WON finds the count 80% reliable
as a precursor to a change of market direction when proper follow
through occurs, why must we clutter it up with so much noise, extra
indicators, news, thoughts, etc.?  Do we think that we can improve the
count to, say, 82%?

Counting doesn't make us feel smart or sophisticated or possessed of
awesome market savy and prowess, perhaps? Somebody at work, our pension
plan manager (yeah right), began to show some interest in my market
calls on Monday (more pleasant noises, I suppose). I'd blurted the last
few out to him, and somehow when he was feeling pain, he remembered what
I had said back in July.  Imagine the look on his face when I told him
that my method was little more than counting on my ten fingers.  He'll
never respect the count, even if he took the time to actually learn it.
What would he tell his clients? "Uh, Mrs. Jones, I think it's a good
time to add significantly to your equity exposure because we had a 1% on
volume day in the indices within 3-10 days of a climax low"?  Why would
they let him prance around in that important car, in important suits
holding up his fingers in front of his face all the time?

I agree there are no bases and leadership is not yet emergent, or at
least not evident at this point.  However, breadth was positive on the
day Tuesday, and improved yesterday.  I'll count...

Jeffry

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 03 Sep 1998 06:10:53 -0700 (PDT)

<<He'll never respect the count, even if he took the time to actually
learn it.  What would he tell his clients? "Uh, Mrs. Jones, I think
it's a good
time to add significantly to your equity exposure because we had a 1% on
volume day in the indices within 3-10 days of a climax low"?  Why would
they let him prance around in that important car, in important suits
holding up his fingers in front of his face all the time?>>

If he gave this advice based on the false signal of two weeks ago, I
imagine Mrs. Jones would be pretty ticked :)

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 03 Sep 1998 10:16:40 -0400

>
>If he gave this advice based on the false signal of two weeks ago, I
>imagine Mrs. Jones would be pretty ticked :)
>
>--Db
>

I did not trust that signal and did not act on it, but could not explain it
at the time beyond saying it "felt" wrong.  So I held my "opinion", rightly
or wrongly.  Now I have a sense of why it felt wrong, but don't have (yet)
a rigorous reason to ignore one like it in the future.

It seemed false (I can say in review) because:
    1) the market had only just begun to correct (there had been too short a
time since the pullback began and we got the first sell signal).
    2) there was not a batch of leadership stocks (new or old) breaking out
concurrent with the signal (and no new bases to launch from)
    3) the previous rally had been extremely short, as I said earlier, like
the last sprint of a bull before its shakey legs surrendered and it collapsed

Separately, even though Mrs. Jones may have lost a few percent in the false
signal.  If Mr. Pension Fund knew what we know now - ie. what Mike Lucero
recently quoted from O'Neils book, HTMMIS:

WON says "There will be some scarce cses where whipsaws may occur; however,
in almost every situation where the rally has a valid follow-through and
then abruptly fails, the market will very quickly come crashing down on
furious volume, normally the next day.
  Just because the market corrects the day after a follow-through, however,
does not mean the upward follow-through was false. When the general market
bottoms, it frequently backs and fills (testing) near the lows made during
the previous few weeks. It is usually more constructive if these pullbacks
or tests hold up at least a little above the absoluve intraday lows made
recently in the market averages."

This exactly describes the action on 8/26 and 8/27.  I said at the time
that 8/26 looked like a fresh sell signal (and probably the third one to
me) and that you should be 75% or more cash as of that signal (that day).
Even if Mrs. Jones was put back in the market at the high on the 18th (buy
signal) and jumped out 100% at the low on the 27th (definite sell signal if
you did not trust the 26th), she would have only lost 10%.  That is a lot
better than her losses had she ignored all of the sell and buy signals and
simply held right along into the bear market now underway.

One of the keys to this whole thing is to be nimble.  Not just to bend like
a tree in the wind and respond to what the market says,  but to recognize
the signals dead on and jump in or out instantaneously (that day) when the
signal occurs.   Same thing on a more refined scale vis a vis individual
stocks.  Look at the climax run defined by LU recently.  The day it had the
exhaustion gap was the day to jump out (just as the breakout day, near the
pivot is the day to jump in).  Additionally, if a stock starts acting wrong
and it starts giving signals that the breakout might fail you have to be
nimble and not question your judgement and sell some or all immediately.
If you wait for a bounce from below your 5% stop say and it does not come,
you can find yourself down 12% on a failed breakout very quickly (even in a
roaring bull).

O'Neil is fond of saying that it takes a year or two to learn this stuff
and get it right.  I must be a very slow learner, it has taken me a lot
longer than that.  Part of it is personality of course.  But part of it is
the subtleties, even on a simple count.  But the basics, which will keep
you far ahead of the game and can be taught fairly quickly (even if you do
go for a false buy signal in the market - as long as you honor the
following big sell signal, and the earlier sell signals).

Well this is running too long.

Best regards to all,
Craig

BTW - I must mention how much I have been enjoying everybody's posts lately
...
Frank Wolynski, Jeffry White, Joahn Van Houtven, Tom Worley, Mike Lucero,
DCSquires, Dbphoenix, Walter Stock and others (sorry if your name did not
come to mind right now).  The posts have been excellent.


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 03 Sep 1998 07:47:15 -0700 (PDT)

<<Even if Mrs. Jones was put back in the market at the high on the
18th (buy
signal) and jumped out 100% at the low on the 27th (definite sell
signal if
you did not trust the 26th), she would have only lost 10%.>>

Only if she had been placed in an index fund.  If she had been placed
in the wrong stocks instead and the prices gapped down through her
stops, she could have lost far more.

I see nothing wrong with applying common sense acquired through
experience--as you have--to this "simple" counting procedure.  One can
also, as others have, look for a reversal low and apply sentiment
figures (or resistance or moving averages).  But even if one maintains
unquestioning faith in the "simplicity" of the method, one still must
find stocks which have been basing for six to eight weeks and are near
a new high, along with at least a few other stocks which are in the
same group and which are also showing strength.

What is simple to the experienced is not necessarily simple to the
novice.  The experienced, for example, may be more likely to pull the
trigger quickly when he feels that something isn't right based on what
he's been through in similar past situations.  The novice may be more
likely to give the "method" extra breathing room, thinking perhaps
that he may have it wrong.  Granted this may be more the fault of the
novice than of the method, but it's a mistake to give the impression
that this particular approach works without fail.

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 03 Sep 1998 15:03:51 GMT

On Tue, 01 Sep 1998 22:02:52 -0400, you wrote:

:What a beautiful reversal day.  Not a gap down open flushing, but a
:solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow
:through.  New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close.
:
:Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in
:my book.  WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation
:signals.  The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon
:a reversal low of these proportions.
:
:Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never seen
:it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn.  Water cooler, radio,
:newspaper, this group, etc.
:
:Pleasant Noises.
:
:Jeff

Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many
ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment)
about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume
confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs
only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a
reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through
before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that
Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on
its own?

Dan

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Brian Nash <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 03 Sep 1998 08:10:11 -0700

>>>Or does anyone think that Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a
follow through all on its own? <<<

No, I started counting on Tuesday. I'm waiting for the action next Tuesday -
Friday (assuming Monday is a stock market holiday, right?)

> -----Original Message-----
> From:    [e-mail] [SMTP:[e-mail]]
> Sent:    Thursday, September 03, 1998 11:04 AM
> To:    [e-mail]
> Subject:    Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
>
> On Tue, 01 Sep 1998 22:02:52 -0400, you wrote:
>
> :What a beautiful reversal day.  Not a gap down open flushing, but a
> :solid day for a potential bottom from which to count for follow
> :through.  New ugly low, massive volume, big number gain on the close.
> :
> :Like last October, we may get a few false starts, but it was a beauty in
> :my book.  WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume confirmation
> :signals.  The back testing I've seen is better than that when based upon
> :a reversal low of these proportions.
> :
> :Nice to see so much fear, panic, nay-saying, sky is falling, "never seen
> :it before", "Oh sh*t" everywhere you turn.  Water cooler, radio,
> :newspaper, this group, etc.
> :
> :Pleasant Noises.
> :
> :Jeff
>
> Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many
> ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment)
> about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume
> confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs
> only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a
> reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through
> before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that
> Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on
> its own?
>
> Dan
>
> [e-mail]
>
> -

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 03 Sep 1998 13:20:33 -0400

At 03:03 PM 9/3/98 GMT, you wrote:
>Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many
>ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment)
>about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume
>confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs
>only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a
>reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through
>before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that
>Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on
>its own?
>
>Dan
>
>[e-mail]
>

Caught without my book, but WON sez to purposefully ignore the first two
days! The follow through is valid only if it occurs between 3-7 days after
the low. Sometimes out to 10 days, but the resulting rally will usually be
weak by comparison.

Count from Closing low: Monday 8/31, today is #3  window will run until
next Thursday, or the following Monday for the 10 day version.
This assumes the 8/31 low holds.

Count from Intraday low: just add one to the above.

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Advance & Correction Durations since 1990 Bear
Date: 03 Sep 1998 18:48:20 -0400

A bit off subject - the bull market run from the July 1990 bear.  Advances
and with corrections (-10 to -20% = correction, more than -20% = bear) in a
table.

Based on a look at the weekly NASDAQ chart.  I did not attempt to find
buy/sell signals. I attempted to find the date for each significant top and
bottom.  FWIW, here it is with approximate durations and percent gain/loss
from the valley to peak, then peak to new valley, etc.

Advance/  Start      End         Approx     Peak to Valley
Decline   Date       Date        Months     Percent

Dec       90-07-27   91-01-25    5 mo down  -40%  Bear Mkt
Adv       91-01-25   91-06-07    4 mo up    +50%
Dec       91-06-07   91-07-05    1 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
Adv       91-07-05   92-02-14    7 mo up    +40%
Dec       92-02-14   92-10-09    8 mo down  -20%  Correction
Adv       92-10-09   93-02-05    4 mo up    +20%
Dec       93-02-05   93-04-30    3 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
Adv       93-04-30   94-03-18    11 mo up   +20%
Dec       94-03-18   94-06-24    3 mo down  -20%  Correction
Adv       94-06-24   94-10-28    4 mo up    +15%
Dec       94-10-28   94-12-16    2 mo down  -7%   Minor Correction
Adv       94-12-16   95-09-15    9 mo up    +35%
Dec       95-09-15   96-01-19    4 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
Adv       96-01-19   96-05-24    4 mo up    +30%
Dec       96-05-24   96-07-26    2 mo down  -20%  Correction
Adv       96-07-26   97-01-31    6 mo up    +30%
Dec       97-01-31   97-05-02    3 mo down  -15%  Correction
Adv       97-05-02   97-10-10    5 mo up    +35%
Dec       97-10-10   98-01-16    3 mo down  -15%  Correction
Adv       98-01-16   98-04-24    3 mo up    +20%
Dec       98-04-24   98-06-19    2 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
Adv       98-06-19   98-07-17    1 mo up    +20%
Dec       98-07-24   98-09-03    1 1/2 mo   -25% Bear Mkt (so far? ...)

On 03/30/90, the NASDAQ closed at 328.  Today's close was 1574.  Thats
almost 500% in 8 1/2 years.

Best regards,
Craig


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises - Dan M.
Date: 03 Sep 1998 14:24:400 -0500

>>Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many
>>ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment)
>>about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume
>>confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs
>>only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a
>>reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through
>>before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that
>>Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on
>>its own?

>>Dan

>>[e-mail]

Sorry if my "poem" offended you, Dan.  Was not trying to be poetic, but I'll
take it as a compliment.  ;)  Certainly was not trying to be offensive, but
it seems to come easily for me, in this group at least.

80% reliability on confirmation signals (1% on volume/follow through days)
is correct, and I'm not sure why my "poem" suggested otherwise.  Tuesday's
huge volume and 1% move was nothing more than a "low" from which to count
for confirmation.  I count from the intraday low, so today is day 2.

Perhaps it was my excitement which made my post unclear to you.  My
enthusiasm came from the magnitude of the reversal and the record/near
record volume, depending upon the index you watch.  I also like the
sentiment numbers here which crossed over to the bearish side:  43.2%
bearish, 40.7% bullish.  Still need to see confirmation, as you state.  And
then the task is only half done, right?

I suppose I bang the countdown drum so routinely and loudly that it is easy
for the disbelievers to scoff and suggest that it's not so simple.  It must
appear, when I fail to properly couch my comments, that I am suggesting that
one need do nothing more than count in a brainless manner, shoot and ask
questions later.

Not so, and so, for the -enth time I should say that it IS that simple, but
ONLY as an indicator to start checking for leadership emergence, A/D support
(although a lagging indicator, important in rally attempts), and new highs
(also a laggard, IMO, as Tom points out, but it is where the focus must
shift to help monitor the strength and emergence of candidates).  It is not
a 100% reliable indicator.  It is not (IMO) one where even a "nimble"
CANSLIM'er should dash out and load the boat, and margin to the hilt.

It is, however, a possible precursor to 50% of the game we are
playing....getting the "M" right, right?

Please excuse my "poetic" enthusiasm.

JW





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. IBD
Date: 03 Sep 1998 18:59:40 EDT

People:

     I thought this IBD article in today's paper would be of interest to those
who might be too eager out there:

 The month of August put a quick end to the June-July rally. But late summer
setbacks are common in the stock market.
     In the past 28 years, August has been one of the lowest-gaining months on
the Dow Jones industrial average. And if you think summer months are slow,
just wait until September and October.

     ''September is historically the worst month of the year for the stock
market,'' said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Nesbitt Burns. ''Over the
past 28 years, the Dow has fallen nearly three-quarters of the time in
September, posting an average loss of almost 1%.''

     I N V E S T O R ' S   C O R N E R

     October's average loss is about half that of September's for the same
time frame. Just last year, the Dow was dealt a 554-point, or 7.2% blow on
Oct. 27. And it's hard to forget Black Monday, when the Dow took a 22.6%
plunge on Oct. 19, still the greatest one-day percentage loss on Wall Street.
     Monday's 513-point, or 6.4% dive, came on the last day of August. It's
difficult to know whether this means the usual decline came early or if it
portends an ugly September and October.
     Seasonal patterns do seem to change over long spans of history.

     ''December has been the best month since the Second World War, but only
the second best month since 1885,'' wrote Jeremy Siegel, finance professor for
the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, in ''Stocks For The Long
Run,'' a landmark study of returns of different asset classes.
     Nevertheless, the winter months have proven to be some of the strongest,
on average. The Dow has rebounded 1.1% in November and 1.9% in December.
January has been the top-performing month since '70, with a 2.3% gain.
     And if it's been this way for 27 years, will this indicate a naturally
positive end to the U.S. stock market blues this year?
     Experts agree that's hard to say. But if the seasonal pattern of the past
27 years continues, one would be inclined to think so.

     ''Theories confirmed by market action are of great interest to me,'' said
John Bollinger, of Manhattan Beach, Calif.-based Bollinger Capital Management.
''But theories by themselves are a good way to lose money.''

     Using the S&P 500 index, Bollinger generated a chart that shows
volatility levels from '70 through '97. What he found: The first eight months
of the year tend to be strong. September is typically flat, and October is the
weakest. From November, the market turns around and rallies.

     ''It's very hard to understand what the seasonal forces are,'' Bollinger
said. One popular theory is that tax-related selling in the fall quarter
accounts for the September and October weaknesses.

     ''However, the phenomenon persists in countries that have differing tax
structures and differing fiscal years,'' he said. So no matter what the
theories for seasonal volatility are, he says, ''they exist, they are
persistent, and they're worth paying attention to.''

     Siegel noted in his book: ''In every country but Austria, January returns
are greater than average. Outside the United States, January returns
constitute 30% of total stock returns on a value-weighted basis. Investor
enthusiasm in January also seems to infect the neighboring months of December
through February.''

     Once the market is in a downtrend, says stock historian Yale Hirsch,
usually panic will set in at some point in the summer. ''Then (there's) a
waterfall decline when a lot of people who are skeptical want to get the hell
out,'' he said.
     But in the last 15 years, he says, bear markets have grown briefer.

     ''You would think events could drive it,'' Hirsch said, ''but what should
have done it were the events in Southeast Asia last year. The market had so
much money coming in, it was discounted. What we're seeing now is people
seeing reality and fear setting in, upsetting the balance between supply and
demand.''

     Many institutional investors such as mutual funds may also sell large
positions in the latter half of the year in an effort to hold on to their
earlier gains, causing heavy sell-offs.
     Cooper says she was surprised to see that September turned out to be
worse than October in the Dow's average monthly percentage change chart.

     ''It's been that way for years,'' she said. ''In 1929, the crash was in
October and the decline started in September.'' She knows of no reason for the
two- month average underperformance.

     ''Each time, there's a different story,'' she said. ''In the case of the
October '87 crash, interest rates were rising dramatically.''

     She sees no reason why this year's market activity won't follow the
seasonal pattern. ''I don't think the correction's over yet. There's still
earnings concerns, and still potential further destabilizing forces in the
global economy.''

     Southeast Asia and Japan are already in the midst of their currency woes,
and Russia has just joined the crowd. Cooper thinks Latin America will suffer
the next string of devaluations, perhaps followed by China and Hong Kong.
     Experts think it's highly unlikely the Federal Reserve will raise
interest rates any time soon. In fact, they say, the Fed is more likely to
ease rates.

     ''I think raising interest rates would be the equivalent of committing
suicide,'' said Hirsch. ''In order to give us a boost, it would probably be a
lowering of rates.''

     Hirsch said last week he thinks the market should touch bottom ''fairly
soon,'' especially given the expected seasonal downturn. ''For it to be
extended beyond that, the world economy would really have to go into the
tank.''

     And when economic situations get very bleak, he says, governments often
get moving to try to ease the problems.
     So if the market follows the typical seasonal pattern by bottoming out in
October and ending the year with a rally, it seems, no one will be very
surprised. Hirsch isn't expecting a rally to start much earlier than normal.

     ''If Clinton wasn't tarnished, his going to Moscow (this week) might have
turned it around,'' he said.
     It's hard to see light at the end of the tunnel right now, but looking
back to last year, things seemed just as glum.
     Asia began roiling in September, culminating in the harsh Oct. 27 sell-
off, but the market still staged a rally by the end of the year.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Copyright (c)  1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved.
Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (09/03/98)
Will Fall's Slide Lead To Winter's Rally?
By Nancy Gondo
09/02/98 20:51

                                                       jans



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Al French <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 03 Sep 1998 22:40:27 -0400

Scott Vickery wrote:
>
> Ok,  I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my
> decision on which charting software to use without trying them all
> out, so I got the 30 day trial of TC2000.
>
> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM.  Or, more
> likely, an approximation of CASLI?
>

   Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and
you can fine tune it to meet your needs:

    Chart List:                All Stocks
    EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C")    Value 25 - Max
    Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A")        Value 25 - Max
    EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS")        Rank 75 - 99
    Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS")        Rank 75 - 99
    Sales growth rate            Value 15 - Max
    Price as percent of 52 week high    Value 85 - Max
    Price per share                Value 15 - Max
    Price vs 200 day moving average        Value 100 - Max
    Price vs 40 day moving average        Value 94 - Max
    Volume surge 5 day            Value 150 - Max

    Since small stocks have been underperforming, I haven't screened out
large caps (although the 25% EPS growth minima knocks out most of
them).  But you could do this by limiting capitalization.

    With the recent selloff, the 40 day MA culls 77% of stocks, the 150%
minimum volume surge culls 64% more, and the 15% sales growth minimum
culls 62% of those. This fairly strict scan produces only 6 stocks
today: CPWR, EMC, JKHY, KRON, PAYX, and SAI. Try playing around with the
criteria if you want a longer list--it only takes a couple of seconds to
run each scan.

    I hope this will help you get started.

Al French

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Financial Glossaries site
Date: 04 Sep 1998 10:36:10 +0200

For time to new someone posts a request for a Financial glossary. Came
across one while looking for the definition of a "Coppock Curve".

The Directory Of Financial Glossaries can be found at:

http://www.e-analytics.com/glossdir.htm



-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Coppock Curve
Date: 04 Sep 1998 10:40:20 +0200

At Ian Woodward's site there has been some talk about the Coppock Curve
recently. Is anyone on this list familiar with this curve?

Her are some sites that have information on the Coppock curve:

http://www.topline-charts.com/Encyclopedia/volume16listing.htm

Coppock Curve Interpretation:

http://www.topline-charts.com/Encyclopedia/coppock_curve_interpretation.htm

Note on the "killer wave" and the long-term momentum oscillator:

http://208.149.178.115/killer.htm

Stock market cycles:

http://www.consensus-inc.com/061397/fin-com/fc-sc.htm




-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sentiment excerpt for Jeffrey from Coppock Curve Article
Date: 04 Sep 1998 05:45:52 -0400

Thanks Johan for the Coppock article links, good reading for a wet
central Florida Friday.


I've extracted a few sentences (without permission) concerning sentiment
at a time when the lack of bullish was a precursor, not a contrary
indicator. I know Jeffrey closely follows sentiment and thought this
particular segment was an eyebrow raiser.


Best Regards,

Frank



In a Barron's column dated October 29, 1973 (the arrow on the chart
points to the week that includes that date),

Alan Abelson wrote: "...There are no signs of the beginning of anything
terminal. An awful wad of dough has been squirreled away in short-term
paper, and, as rates come down, the attraction vis-a-vis stocks is bound
to diminish, to the benefit of equities. <bold>Moreover, the amount of
professional skepticism around remains reassuringly large...latest survey
of advisory services shows a precipitous drop in the number of bulls, to
39% of the total</bold>, from 50% the previous week and 57.6% two weeks
earlier. (The pro portion of bears, 28.8% in the latest compilation, has
held comparatively steady.) <bold>Bull moves rarely end with most seers
looking downward." The column appeared the very day of the high before
the 40% plus decline.

</bold>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] More random thoughts
Date: 04 Sep 1998 07:56:25 -0400

World economic problems continue, and directly contributed to the
sentiment shift from bullish to bearish. Russia among some others has
rebounded, however Japan continues to slip and closed last night close
to again going under 14,000.

Oil futures moved up sharply yesterday, in part on production problems
and/or local discord in several producer countries, as well as the
Russian problems which is expected to disrupt oil delivery (Russia is
the third largest producer country if I remember my stats). Despite
this, Venezuela dropped another 222 points (7.5%) to another new 12
month low. That market is now down 75% for the past year.

Brazil is also starting to crack open, don't know if it can avoid the
massive selloff that has hit other emerging market countries.

VIX continued to move higher closing over 43.

I am seeing more talk of the small caps being a place to put money for
the long haul, one comment even coming from an aggressive big cap fund
manager. General concensus seems to be that that may be one of the few
areas where good earnings growth may still be possible for the next
year or two.

Had to take another stock off the watch list yesterday after it got a
stock buyout offer 44% over mkt and rocketed. Wish I'd owned it, oh
well. I think we may be entering a period of increased acquisition and
merger activity, as companies try to improve earnings or market share
that way, also taking advantage of depressed share prices.

I hear a lot of chatter about a "head and shoulders" in the Dow 30 and
it going to 4500 before beginning a new bull mkt (not quite convinced
that the aging bull has yet expired, tho it's probably on life support
now).

At DGO, the chart for overbot/oversold pegs out at 899 either way. For
a week now, even after the big reversal on heavy volume, it remained
pegged out at -899. There has been some increase in avg up volume,
however the increase in down vol still higher. The avg new highs on
both exchanges is silly, with most of the ones on Nasdaq resulting
from news, not earnings. On NYSE, most of the new highs are utilities
and bond funds.

We remain mired in deep doo doo, so keep counting and keep the powder
dry. There is still hope since there is a wealth of money on the
sidelines now, as well as likely still a huge short position. The
dollar has weakened dramatically recently, partly due to continued
Japanese repatriation to meet domestic needs (or prepare for
intervention). There has also been a lot of selling to meet margin
calls. So far the bond mkt continues to benefit from the "flight to
safety" despite the drop in the dollar, however should this "flight"
be grounded, we could see profit taking in the bond mkt, potentially
releasing even more money that could flow back to equities if by then
it looks attractive. Meanwhile, the unexpected worldwide weakness in
the dollar is helping other currencies (or their strength is weakening
the dollar) and could ultimately help increase US exports and maybe
breathe a spark of fire into several other economies.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] One from my watch list
Date: 04 Sep 1998 08:01:41 -0400

One gem to watch, despite being a semi conductor, is Transwitch
(TXCC). Orderly retreat, and in the past 3 days completely wiped out a
month long slide to hit a new high on heavy volume. Suspect a rumor
that I have not yet picked up on.

NOT A BUY members, just worth watching and learning as it has good CS
criteria.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises - Dan M.
Date: 04 Sep 1998 12:48:22 GMT

On Thu, 3 Sep 98 14:24:400 -0500, you wrote:

:>>Ok. Nice poem, Jeff. I DO like poetry, and create my own (in many
:>>ways). OK. However, I want to ask you (or anyone who cares to comment)
:>>about a point you make here. "WON says 80% reliability of 1% on volume
:>>confirmation signals." My recollection of this is on follow throughs
:>>only, not reversals. Tuesday was not a follow through day, but a
:>>reversal, as I remember things. We are waiting for a follow through
:>>before we have anything like a confirmation. Or does anyone think that
:>>Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume constitutes a follow through all on
:>>its own?
:
:>>Dan
:
:>>[e-mail]
:
:Sorry if my "poem" offended you, Dan.  Was not trying to be poetic, but =
I'll=20
:take it as a compliment.  ;)  Certainly was not trying to be offensive, =
but=20
:it seems to come easily for me, in this group at least.

I was certainly not offended. I said "Nice poem" and I meant exactly
that! I was not being sarcastic or facetious. Be as poetic as you
like, Jeff. That was my message AFA your expressiveness is concerned,
pure and simple.
:
:80% reliability on confirmation signals (1% on volume/follow through =
days)=20
:is correct, and I'm not sure why my "poem" suggested otherwise.  =
Tuesday's=20
:huge volume and 1% move was nothing more than a "low" from which to =
count=20
:for confirmation.  I count from the intraday low, so today is day 2.

Yes. Well, I thought that wasn't clear from your post, and I know you
are aware of WON's wonderful "M" determining, market bottom
determining methodology...far better than I, certainly, and I
therefore asked about it. My impression was that you had declared that
there was an 80% certainty that the bottom had been determined, and my
impression from what I know is that this will only be the case IF a
follow through occurs ... a follow through that HAS YET TO HAPPEN.
That's what we are counting and watching for (preferably day 3 to 8,
as I recall, right?).
:
:Perhaps it was my excitement which made my post unclear to you.  My=20
:enthusiasm came from the magnitude of the reversal and the record/near=20
:record volume, depending upon the index you watch.  I also like the=20
:sentiment numbers here which crossed over to the bearish side:  43.2%=20
:bearish, 40.7% bullish.  Still need to see confirmation, as you state.  =
And=20
:then the task is only half done, right?
:
:I suppose I bang the countdown drum so routinely and loudly that it is =
easy=20
:for the disbelievers to scoff and suggest that it's not so simple.  It =
must=20
:appear, when I fail to properly couch my comments, that I am suggesting =
that=20
:one need do nothing more than count in a brainless manner, shoot and ask=
=20
:questions later.
:
:Not so, and so, for the -enth time I should say that it IS that simple, =
but=20
:ONLY as an indicator to start checking for leadership emergence, A/D =
support=20
:(although a lagging indicator, important in rally attempts), and new =
highs=20
:(also a laggard, IMO, as Tom points out, but it is where the focus must=20
:shift to help monitor the strength and emergence of candidates).  It is =
not=20
:a 100% reliable indicator.  It is not (IMO) one where even a "nimble"=20
:CANSLIM'er should dash out and load the boat, and margin to the hilt.
:
:It is, however, a possible precursor to 50% of the game we are=20
:playing....getting the "M" right, right?
:
:Please excuse my "poetic" enthusiasm.
:
:JW

Absolutely no excuses necessary. You can be Keats, if you like.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Alex" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ES8U ???
Date: 04 Sep 1998 13:45:36 +0200

Hi everybuddy :)

> If this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap
> tech.


What's ES8U - I've never heard it? Is it a stock symbol for an index much
like spy???

thank you,
Alexander Herrmann eMail: [e-mail]
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Airlines...

Radar: Flight 1234, for noise abatement turn right 45 degrees
Pilot: Roger, but we are at 35.000 feet, how much noise can we
make up here ?
Radar: Sir, have you ever heard the noise a 707 makes when it hits
a 727 ?


Radar: CRX 500, are you on a course to SUL ?
Pilot: More or less
Radar: So proceed a little bit more to SUL


Tower: N2234, are you a Cessna ?
Pilot: No, I'm a male hispanic


Pilot: ... request heading 110 to avoid"
Radar: To avoid what ?
Pilot: To avoid delay


Pilot: Radar, this is Cessna 4675
Radar: Cessna 4675, go ahead
Pilot: Radar, I dont seem to be making much progress here.
How is my groundspeed ?
Radar: Well, all depends. If you are a hang glider, you are
doing very well.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ES8U ???
Date: 04 Sep 1998 10:46:08 -0400




>Hi everybuddy :)
>
>> If this thing follows through I'm only playing the SPY, ES8U or big cap
>> tech.
>
>
>What's ES8U - I've never heard it? Is it a stock symbol for an index much
>like spy???
>
>thank you,
>Alexander Herrmann


The ES8U is a futures contract(for September) know as the "mini" S&P. Buying
this contract is lower risk than buying the big S&P contract because the
leverage is lower. When the S&P cash moves one point it represents a $50
change in equity for the mini S&P. For the big S&P contract equity
fluctuates $250 for every 1 point move. The margin requirements are also
much lower. "ES" is the base symbol for the contract, "8" represents the
last digit of the contract year(1998) and "U" represent the contract title
month, which in this case is September. I hope this helps.

DCSquires




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP
Date: 04 Sep 1998 19:44:47 +0200

For those who like to study FAILED break-outs, take a look at CATP. Was an
excellent CANSLIM stock at one point, BTW.

Good example of why you need a stop-loss and have to obey it! And not talk
yourself into becoming a long-term holder, value investor or whatever.

I remember that Kevin Marder mentioned it as a speculative market leader
when we had the follow-through day in July.

Broke down on 07/16. Down ever since and today they are hitting it really
hard again.


Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP
Date: 04 Sep 1998 11:11:04 -0700 (PDT)

<<Good example of why you need a stop-loss and have to obey it! And
not talk
yourself into becoming a long-term holder, value investor or whatever.>>

Why would a value investor be interested in this stock?

--Db





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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP
Date: 04 Sep 1998 21:20:05 +0200

At 11:11 AM 04-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
><<Good example of why you need a stop-loss and have to obey it! And
>not talk
>yourself into becoming a long-term holder, value investor or whatever.>>
>
>Why would a value investor be interested in this stock?
>
>--Db

Did I say that a value investor should be interested in CATP? I certainly
hope I didn't!

Maybe I didn't make it clear that the comment you quoted was a generalised
comment about failed breakouts.

 I have noticed that some, especially beginning CANSLIMers, tend to talk
themselves into holding their position in a 'failed' breakout just a little
longer, and then again a bit longer. They rationalize their behaviour by
changing the 'identity' of the position. It was a  CANSLIM position, the
becomes a long term hold or it is now a value postion or whatever you can
come up with to rationalise your behaviour. I can certainly remember going
through thoughts like that in the past. I would guess that most of will
recognise that kind of thinking.

My message was: That kind of behaviour doesn't pay-off in the stock market.
Avoid it.

Hope it is more clear now.




Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Top 10 list weekend review IBD
Date: 04 Sep 1998 13:24:18 -0700 (PDT)

SWWC    Utility water (1)
vlgea   Retail super/mini (2-6)
swy
fdlna
fdlnb
kr
ATI    Telecom-cell (7)
UFS    Food (8)
WCG    Insurance Broker (9-10)
EWB

TM
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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed break-out example: CATP
Date: 04 Sep 1998 13:37:33 -0700 (PDT)

<<My message was: That kind of behaviour doesn't pay-off in the stock
market. Avoid it.

Hope it is more clear now.>>

Sorry, Johan.  I wasn't clear either.  A value investor wouldn't have
been interested before, and might not be interested even now.  The
fact that a stock is cheaper doesn't necessarily mean that it
represents value.  CATP might be too expensive even now.  If I
understand you correctly, you're saying that one shouldn't use "value"
as a rationalization for holding on to a losing position.  I'm just
adding a reminder than value investing involves something more than
looking for stocks that have lost a substantial percentage of their
market cap.

There may be individuals who have held on to losing positions
throughout this whole mess who are having difficulty figuring out what
to do.  It's a real test of objectivity to determine whether the stock
is a real piece of junk and should be written off, or whether it does
now represent real value and an opportunity to add to the position.
One question might be whether one would now be interested in the
stock--whatever it might be--if one didn't already own it.  If the
answer's no, then one has to wonder why anyon else would be interested
in it either.

--Db







_________________________________________________________
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Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Adams" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings
Date: 04 Sep 1998 20:33:15 -0000

Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and indicates
the top performers in each industry?

TIA
James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY  USA
http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings
Date: 04 Sep 1998 23:20:07 -0400

Using the Market Guide Sectors/Industries, not the IBD, each sector and
Industry Group is ranked daily, (although somewhat sporadically in their
updates when I frequented the site last fall).

http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/RESEARCH/whatshot.html?NETSCAPE_LIVEWIRE.URLK
ey=undefined&NETSCAPE_LIVEWIRE.userchar=undefined

If that link didn't come through try this one and select 'What's Hot' from
the tabs.

http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/

I don't think it is what you are looking for, but the best I can do for
daily rankings.

Best Regards,
Frank Wolynski

At 20:33 9/4/98 -0000, you wrote:
>Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and indicates
>the top performers in each industry?
>
>TIA
>James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY  USA
>http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/
>
>
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Advance & Correction Durations since 1990 Bear
Date: 05 Sep 1998 04:37:39 GMT

Very cool beans, Craig. This isn't off-topic as far as I'm concerned.
Thanks.

I do believe that this illustrates that you can certainly improve your
returns by "timing the market".

Dan

On Thu, 03 Sep 1998 18:48:20 -0400, you wrote:

:A bit off subject - the bull market run from the July 1990 bear.  =
Advances
:and with corrections (-10 to -20% =3D correction, more than -20% =3D =
bear) in a
:table.
:
:Based on a look at the weekly NASDAQ chart.  I did not attempt to find
:buy/sell signals. I attempted to find the date for each significant top =
and
:bottom.  FWIW, here it is with approximate durations and percent =
gain/loss
:from the valley to peak, then peak to new valley, etc.
:
:Advance/  Start      End         Approx     Peak to Valley
:Decline   Date       Date        Months     Percent
:
:Dec       90-07-27   91-01-25    5 mo down  -40%  Bear Mkt
:Adv       91-01-25   91-06-07    4 mo up    +50%  =20
:Dec       91-06-07   91-07-05    1 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
:Adv       91-07-05   92-02-14    7 mo up    +40% =20
:Dec       92-02-14   92-10-09    8 mo down  -20%  Correction
:Adv       92-10-09   93-02-05    4 mo up    +20%  =20
:Dec       93-02-05   93-04-30    3 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
:Adv       93-04-30   94-03-18    11 mo up   +20%  =20
:Dec       94-03-18   94-06-24    3 mo down  -20%  Correction
:Adv       94-06-24   94-10-28    4 mo up    +15%
:Dec       94-10-28   94-12-16    2 mo down  -7%   Minor Correction
:Adv       94-12-16   95-09-15    9 mo up    +35%
:Dec       95-09-15   96-01-19    4 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
:Adv       96-01-19   96-05-24    4 mo up    +30%
:Dec       96-05-24   96-07-26    2 mo down  -20%  Correction
:Adv       96-07-26   97-01-31    6 mo up    +30%
:Dec       97-01-31   97-05-02    3 mo down  -15%  Correction
:Adv       97-05-02   97-10-10    5 mo up    +35%
:Dec       97-10-10   98-01-16    3 mo down  -15%  Correction
:Adv       98-01-16   98-04-24    3 mo up    +20%
:Dec       98-04-24   98-06-19    2 mo down  -10%  Minor Correction
:Adv       98-06-19   98-07-17    1 mo up    +20%
:Dec       98-07-24   98-09-03    1 1/2 mo   -25% Bear Mkt (so far? ...)
:
:On 03/30/90, the NASDAQ closed at 328.  Today's close was 1574.  Thats
:almost 500% in 8 1/2 years.
:
:Best regards,
:Craig
:
:
:-

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 05 Sep 1998 05:18:46 GMT

On Wed, 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400, you wrote:

:I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all.=20
:( Here or the other haunts I hang out.)=20
:The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday low, but
:today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor.=20
:
:Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet' was
:having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody
:really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately.
:
:Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what he was
:suggesting!

Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only
appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively,
some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on
that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot
going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you
meant by that comment.

To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by
the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday
alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest,
too] didn't either.=20

Dan
:
:Frank Wolynski
:
:
:-

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Ratings
Date: 04 Sep 1998 23:54:19 -0700 (PDT)


Try this one:  http://members.aol.com/RANord/
You can download into EXCEL under group reports for the industries and
sort by RS.  You can download and correlate the stock lists with the
groups- cream has everything.  You have your choice of combos of E/R/G
with the stock lists.  He updates weekly after Friday's close
(sometime during the weekend).

TM





---James Adams <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> Anyone aware of a free site that ranks the industries by RS and
indicates
> the top performers in each industry?
>
> TIA
> James W. Adams.......................Maysville, KY  USA
> http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/
>
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 05 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT)

Dan,
I looked at the site Frank recommended:
http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15.  I can
see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are
Exxons, BP's etc helped?  Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it
seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less.  The
drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of
fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does
this all fit together?

Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?

TM






---Dan Musicant <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> On Wed, 02 Sep 1998 23:11:09 -0400, you wrote:
>
> :I don't know if anyone noticed, haven't seen it talked about at all.
> :( Here or the other haunts I hang out.)
> :The Dow Transports intraday was higher than yesterdays intraday
low, but
> :today closed lower than yestedays close. Hope it is not a precursor.
> :
> :Heard late tonight, Canada Air threatening strike, also 'Value Jet'
was
> :having some sort of problem threatening service. Right, like somebody
> :really flies them anyway. Lots of bad Airline news lately.
> :
> :Whoever said 'May you live in interesting times' had no idea what
he was
> :suggesting!
>
> Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only
> appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively,
> some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on
> that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot
> going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you
> meant by that comment.
>
> To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by
> the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday
> alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest,
> too] didn't either.
>
> Dan
> :
> :Frank Wolynski
> :
> :
> :-
>
> [e-mail]
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Another satellite conference
Date: 05 Sep 1998 00:22:52 -0700 (PDT)


WON has been advertising another satellite conference in 17 cities on
Sept. 12.  I have the list and numbers if anyone is interested.

TM



_________________________________________________________
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Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Scott Vickery <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 05 Sep 1998 09:00:36 -0400

This gets me started very well.

Thank you.

Scott
At 10:40 PM 9/3/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Scott Vickery wrote:
>>
>> Ok,  I finally decided that there would not be a way to make my
>> decision on which charting software to use without trying them all
>> out, so I got the 30 day trial of TC2000.
>>
>> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
>> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM.  Or, more
>> likely, an approximation of CASLI?
>>
>
>   Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and
>you can fine tune it to meet your needs:
>
>    Chart List:                All Stocks
>    EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C")    Value 25 - Max
>    Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A")        Value 25 - Max
>    EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS")        Rank 75 - 99
>    Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS")        Rank 75 - 99
>    Sales growth rate            Value 15 - Max
>    Price as percent of 52 week high    Value 85 - Max
>    Price per share                Value 15 - Max
>    Price vs 200 day moving average        Value 100 - Max
>    Price vs 40 day moving average        Value 94 - Max
>    Volume surge 5 day            Value 150 - Max
>
>    Since small stocks have been underperforming, I haven't screened out
>large caps (although the 25% EPS growth minima knocks out most of
>them).  But you could do this by limiting capitalization.
>
>    With the recent selloff, the 40 day MA culls 77% of stocks, the 150%
>minimum volume surge culls 64% more, and the 15% sales growth minimum
>culls 62% of those. This fairly strict scan produces only 6 stocks
>today: CPWR, EMC, JKHY, KRON, PAYX, and SAI. Try playing around with the
>criteria if you want a longer list--it only takes a couple of seconds to
>run each scan.
>
>    I hope this will help you get started.
>
>Al French
>
>-
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs
Date: 05 Sep 1998 11:17:34 -0400

Pretty quiet here, so will pass on another evidence of just how
bearish this market is right now.

The list of stocks in the DG books that hit a new high last week only
totalled 29, lowest I can recall ever seeing outside a true bear
market. Of the 29, only the following had both the RS and EPS of 80 or
better:

MDU, CSC, WATR, PSC, UFS, BEI, ARTNA, USCS (forget it, a takeover
already in place), and MATW. Haven't looked at the charts yet to see
if any worth watching. There were several others with EPS in the mid
70s which I will be looking at, including one from my watch list
(TXCC) which I previously mentioned.

Reluctant to even post mention of these after the mkt action on the
last two I mentioned (TMBS, TXCC) and all the discussion that
resulted. Maybe they'll still help a few lurkers.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 05 Sep 1998 13:08:15 -0400

At 00:18 9/5/98 -0700, you wrote:
>Dan,
>I looked at the site Frank recommended:
>http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15.  I can
>see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are
>Exxons, BP's etc helped?  Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it
>seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less.  The
>drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of
>fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does
>this all fit together?
>
>Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
>airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?
>
>TM
>
>

The 'never had an accident' reminds me of the way the media chooses our
current Stock Guru's. Made a good call 'last week', 'last month', 'last
year'. The other 4,876,531 missed that drop/rally/correction.
"What made you so astute?"

"Well Ron, when I went out to tha bak yard this morn, ole Harley, my pig
was just a squeeling! I asked Florence to see if'n she could member when
Harley had carried on such! She scratched her belly and looked powr'ful
thoughtful and said, Why Oct. of 1987!" I knowed right there and then a
storm was a brewing. I called my cousin Ralph Make-Em-Poorer and said sell
it all!"

I can't answer as to why the Integrated Producers are holding up so well.
Perhaps they pass the costs on and are able to achieve fairly even price
stability and therefore earnings. Just speculating.

However I have learned and it has helped tremendously not to be too
singular in my pursuit of a reason for a particular move. Before you know
it, you are fixing the performance of Airline stocks to the fluctuations in
the price of oil. Although they weigh very heavily, there are other
influences that cannot be discounted.

The interest rate groupies are all chanting 'The market cannot drop any
further, interest rates are too low! Besides Greenspan will lower the
Targets and the market will rally, saving us all!' You only have to look at
Japan to see the case for exceptions!

Thus, oil prices lacking any other influence would be dominating in their
influence, toss in Worldwide instability, political upheaval, terrorism,
bombs, War, impeachment, commodities collapses, seizure of public money by
the government through banks, yadda, yadda,
you have a case for extraordinary influence by seemingly remote and removed
events!

Although I read, study, learn as much as I can in any day, I find the
messages the markets themselves give to be the most compelling.
It is enough that it is moving.
If I ascribe a reason, then when that reason is removed, I anticipate the
market now changes also. This is most often not the case. And is one of the
reasons why we hold on to losing positions! We think, 'but the economy is
good, unemployment low, interest rates low, etc...!
New forces and reasons unfold everyday. It is a dynamic thing and changes
as fast as you can identify it!

I've read that Airlines are also good economic guages by which to see what
investors are feeling about the future economic outlook. If this is true,
the signal is being given that a substantial slowdown is coming.

Best Regards,
Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 05 Sep 1998 13:23:03 -0400

At 05:18 9/5/98 GMT, you wrote:
>
>Well, I give him a bit more credit than you, maybe. The times only
>appear as interesting as they are interesting to you. Objectively,
>some times are more interesting than others. For me, the jury's out on
>that one. I do agree with you, Frank, however, that there's a lot
>going on that is perturbing these days, and that's what I take it you
>meant by that comment.
>
>To get to the topic: The transports, I think, have been hurt mostly by
>the sudden strength of oil this week ... up around $1/barrel yesterday
>alone. The air crash can't have helped, and the strike(s) [Northwest,
>too] didn't either.
>
>Dan
>:

Actually a friend at work thought it to be an ancient chiness curse!
You are correct in your interpretation of my comments.
I really hope some strength is exhibited by our Government in dealing with
some of these issues. They are indeed perturbing and threatening. They also
represent an incredible opportunity for someone to rise to the cause and
get some of this under control. How? I do not know! Who, I can't say either!

When oil was last at this price, Airlines were in an impressive Bull
market. One would have to speculate that Oil was in a reversal and now
trending upward to warrant such bearishness on the Airlines ($TRAN down
-30%).
I think the problem goes deeper than just last weeks oil prices. I think
the contraction is underway, the slow down is coming, and there is nothing
anyone can do about it. I think the long term investors holding Airline
stocks know this and are cashing out.

When it is generally recognized and espouted on the media, it is pretty
much over. A bottom (or Top) is surely near.

Frank Wolynski



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Connie Mack Rea <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Connie/DB
Date: 05 Sep 1998 13:47:23 -0400

Db--

You dismissed BigChart's Money Flow indicator without knowing its
formula, but you are below asking those on Woodward's site for help to
construct Chaikin's 21-day MF formula:


If it [DB's interpretation of how to construct the formula] isn't
correct, I'll take it off the board and figure it out
with the help of whomever wishes to be kind and
earn points with Santa. (So shoot me. We didn't
have to study this stuff in abnormal psych.)

Db


This excerpt from Woodward's site explains several things:

[1] You still believe in Santa, an explicable but dysfunctional
recrudescence into the nasty reaches of childhood.

[2] You studied neither  grammar nor usage.  "Whomever" in this context
is an attempt to be hyper-correct when, in fact, the proper  relative
pronoun would be "whoever."

[3] Your study of abnormal psych (if indeed one can presume Sigmund did
allow his work to suffer the label), does explain your mock obedience
and petty arrogance toward the less-learned members of Canslim and your
sychopancy toward the much-learned members of Woodward's group.

[4]  And we do not have to be oracular to see your harboring of a death
wish: "So shoot me."  My pleasure.

Connie


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 05 Sep 1998 18:36:20 GMT

On Sat, 5 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT), you wrote:

:Dan,=20
:I looked at the site Frank recommended:
:http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=3Dhotsect&REP=3D15.  I can
:see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are
:Exxons, BP's etc helped?  Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it
:seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less.  The
:drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost of
:fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does
:this all fit together?
:
:Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
:airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?=20
:
:TM

I'm not too aware of the realities of the oil industry, but I do know
that it has tremendous power and leverage ... far more than most
people can imagine.=20

Exxon is currently at its 200 dma and 4 points under its 50 dma. Why
it rose 3.3% yesterday, I don't know, however it fell from the 50 dma
over the previous 5 sessions or so.=20

The fact of the matter is that people will buy oil products in good
times and bad in this country. However, as you note, they won't drill
for new oil if there is oversupply, and there has been and will be for
some time to come. Companies like Exxon know how to deal with price
fluctuations and can make allowances for them. There's no other way to
explain the steady if gradual upward slope of the 200 dma for XON.

However, the airlines' stocks have consistently reacted strongly in
the opposite direction of the price of oil.

I agree with Frank that the recent sell-off in the transportation
stocks has something more at play than the price of oil, and his
assessment that the economy is contracting and holders of the stocks
see the writing on the wall, seems a not unreasonable assessment.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Date: 05 Sep 1998 11:41:06 -0700 (PDT)


None of the groups I follow are at--much less above--their 50d MAs.
However, a considerable number have at least slowed their descents and
may actually be finding bottoms and/or beginning to form bases.  The
most dramatic and wide-ranging turnarounds have been in the oil
groups.  I anticipated this in July, but had reasons in mind other
than Russia's difficulties.  In any event, I'll wait for at least a
retest of the lows.

These are, of course, cyclical, and therefore not CS, depending on how
one interprets Chapter 2, so ignore all this if you want.

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pleasant Noises
Date: 05 Sep 1998 18:49:34 GMT

On Thu, 3 Sep 1998 08:10:11 -0700 , you wrote:

:>>>Or does anyone think that Tuesday's reversal on HUGE volume =
constitutes a
:follow through all on its own? <<<
:
:No, I started counting on Tuesday. I'm waiting for the action next =
Tuesday -
:Friday (assuming Monday is a stock market holiday, right?)

Yeah, right. We've had 3 sessions since Tuesday, and each was a down
day, though none an absolute sell-off like Monday. The best thing
about Tuesday was the volume. Greenspan made remarks yesterday that
some interpret as a suggestion that the FED may consider a paring of
interest rates. That could help spark a some up-action.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 05 Sep 1998 14:09:08 -0700 (PDT)

However I have learned and it has helped tremendously not to be too
> singular in my pursuit of a reason for a particular move. Before you
know
> it, you are fixing the performance of Airline stocks to the
fluctuations in
> the price of oil. Although they weigh very heavily, there are other
> influences that cannot be discounted.

Thank you, Frank.  I'm finding many pitfalls on this journey to
becoming a self-styled expert.  You'll keep me on the straight and
narrow yet <g>.  You are absolutely right, even if a correlation were
to exist between Airlines and Oil prices, it still wouldn't address
cause and effect.

TM
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Audio site
Date: 05 Sep 1998 17:39:40 -0400


Hi all,

If you have an audio player this is a great site! They broadcast interviews
with all kinds of investment advisors....to name a few...John Murphy,
Bollinger, Elder and others. If you need an audio player you can get one
free from Microsoft.


http://broadcast.com/shows/tigerinvestment/guest.htm

DCSquires


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Audio site
Date: 05 Sep 1998 17:39:40 -0400


Hi all,

If you have an audio player this is a great site! They broadcast interviews
with all kinds of investment advisors....to name a few...John Murphy,
Bollinger, Elder and others. If you need an audio player you can get one
free from Microsoft.


http://broadcast.com/shows/tigerinvestment/guest.htm

DCSquires


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Bill <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Interest Rate Reduction
Date: 06 Sep 1998 09:47:28 -0700

Greenspan seems to have indicated that an interest rate reduction is not
ruled out. With that in mind, which US Government debt obligations will be
effected the most?

Will the long term bond rates fall more than the medium or short term rates?

Anyone have a pointer to a site that tracks this data?

Thanks,

Bill-->>
--------



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Closing Low on the Dow Transports
Date: 06 Sep 1998 12:08:27 -0400

On oils and airlines,

The major oil refineries have historically benefited most when there
is volatility in the price of crude. When crude prices drop, finished
product prices fall with a several week lag, and rarely as much. The
oil cos excuse is that while crude is now cheaper, they are still
refining and retailing more expensive inventory. When crude goes up, a
corollary argument is used when prices move up immediately, that is
the oil cos say they must immediately raise prices since now they will
have to replace cheap inventory with more expensive crude (even tho
they are still refining and retailing cheaper inventory). Don't try to
figure out the logic, there isn't any, just a tactic that has worked
well for profits for several decades. Thus stable prices on crude
gives the oil cos less of a "windfall".

On airlines, the cost of fuel is a large part of operating expenses,
and while some manage to hedge price changes by buying on contract or
thru futures, a price increase in crude will eventually increase
expenses. However, airlines are still not operating at near capacity.
Even now, with one major airline on strike, the rest of the industry
has excessive capacity. Yet they are being hit with more demands for
pay raises, at a time they are not able to raise ticket prices.
Witness the several attempts over the past year to make minor price
hikes, I think every single one was rescinded within days. I suspect
protests from travel agents is the primary cause. And if a recession
is coming, or at least a continued slowdown in economic growth, as
well as the sudden wealth generated from stock mkt gains, then luxury
travel will likely be further curtailed.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


On Sat, 5 Sep 1998 00:18:58 -0700 (PDT), you wrote:

:Dan,
:I looked at the site Frank recommended:
:http://www.marketguide.com/MGI/HOT.html?PAGE=hotsect&REP=15.  I can
:see why airtransports are hurt by oil prices rising, but why are
:Exxons, BP's etc helped?  Their commodity is no longer as cheap; it
:seems to me that their prospects and profits should be less.  The
:drillers, explorers etc improved prospects make sense when the cost
of
:fuel gets high enough-it becomes profitable to drill again. How does
:this all fit together?
:
:Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
:airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?
:
:TM

I'm not too aware of the realities of the oil industry, but I do know
that it has tremendous power and leverage ... far more than most
people can imagine.

Exxon is currently at its 200 dma and 4 points under its 50 dma. Why
it rose 3.3% yesterday, I don't know, however it fell from the 50 dma
over the previous 5 sessions or so.

The fact of the matter is that people will buy oil products in good
times and bad in this country. However, as you note, they won't drill
for new oil if there is oversupply, and there has been and will be for
some time to come. Companies like Exxon know how to deal with price
fluctuations and can make allowances for them. There's no other way to
explain the steady if gradual upward slope of the 200 dma for XON.

However, the airlines' stocks have consistently reacted strongly in
the opposite direction of the price of oil.

I agree with Frank that the recent sell-off in the transportation
stocks has something more at play than the price of oil, and his
assessment that the economy is contracting and holders of the stocks
see the writing on the wall, seems a not unreasonable assessment.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Al French <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 06 Sep 1998 12:31:06 -0400

Scott Vickery wrote:
>
> This gets me started very well.
>
> Thank you.
>
> Scott

You're quite welcome.

Another tip that's not emphasized in the user's manual:  You can run
scans of the industry group list (called All Worden's Industry Group
Averages) to spot trends, surges, breakouts, etc.  Since TC2000 gives
daily volume statistics on industry groups you can also apply all of the
technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastics, MACD, money
flow (called by Worden Time Segmented Volume), etc. to the industry
group charts.

I find that looking at the industry group trends on charts is much
easier and better than trying to track their rankings.

Al French

> >> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
> >> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM.  Or,
> >> more likely, an approximation of CASLI?
> >>
> >
> >  Scott-
> > Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and
> >you can fine tune it to meet your needs:
> >
> >       Chart List:                             All Stocks
> >       EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C")     Value 25 - Max
> >       Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A")         Value 25 - Max
> >       EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS")         Rank 75 - 99
> >       Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS")           Rank 75 - 99
> >       Sales growth rate                       Value 15 - Max
> >       Price as percent of 52 week high        Value 85 - Max
> >       Price per share                         Value 15 - Max
> >       Price vs 200 day moving average         Value 100 - Max
> >       Price vs 40 day moving average          Value 94 - Max
> >       Volume surge 5 day                      Value 150 - Max
> >
> >       I hope this will help you get started.
> >
> >Al French
> >
> >-
> >
> >
>
> -

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance
Date: 06 Sep 1998 13:25:29 -0400

<bold><underline>4 Week Group Performance Tabulations:

</underline></bold>

If we don't turn this around, it will get really nasty.

You think it has already? Old money is still in there!

Let's hope that all the Chearleaders the media have trotted out this past

week keeps the Bulls in control. Let's fear they haven't!


<bold><underline><bigger>Best 4 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank Group                        Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param># 1  Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated
2.6%         41             93

# 2  Utility-Water Supply         1.8%          4              9

# 3  Utility-Electric Power       1.3%         11             16

# 4  Metal Ores-Gold/Silver        .2%        166            190

</color><color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param># 5  Food-Meat Products
   -1.1%        141            151

# 6  Funeral Svcs & Rel          -3.0          68             69

# 7  Tobacco                     -3.6%        129            138

# 8  Oil&Gas-US Integrated       -3.6%        146            167

# 9  Finance-Public Td Inv Fd    -4.0%         24             49

#10  Food-Canned                 -4.2%        114            110

</color>

<bold><underline><bigger>Worst 4 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank  Group                       Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188  Retail-Discount&Variety
-27.5%        102            116

#189  Auto Mfrs-Domestic         -27.6          65             22

#190  Retail-Mail Order&Direct   -28.3         139             85

#191  Financial Services-Misc    -29.4          55             33

#192  Finance-Investment Bkrs    -30.0          98             54

#193  Telecommunctns-Cellulr     -31.1          10              6

#194  Retail-Consumer Elect      -32.2          78             47

#195  Computer Softwr-Security   -34.2         173            146

#196  Banks-Money Center         -36.5         174            124

#197  Computer Softwr-Internet   -47.4           3              1

</color>

FWIW,

Frank Wolynski



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance
Date: 06 Sep 1998 13:25:20 -0400

<bold><underline>1 Week Group Performance Tabulations:

</underline></bold>

I've listed all the groups having a positive move this past week.

There were only 21, so it wasn't too difficult or lengthy.


I've changed the order in which the worst are displayed. The worst are

now at the bottom of the list.


From the IBD Ranking numbers, the concentrations of positive group moves
by the worst performing groups and the worst performance by the highest
ranking numbers, one can observe that the bottom was bought up last week
and the top sold off!

Long term money moving in? Bottom fishing?

Pretty rag-tag fleet of new leadership!


<bold><underline><bigger>Best 1 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank Group                        Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param># 1  Metal Ores-Gold/Silver
15.4%         166            190

# 2  Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated        4.6%         143            169

# 3  Metal Ores-Misc               4.4%         154            172

# 4  Oil & Gas-Drilling            4.2%         197            197

# 5  Metal Ores-Non Ferrous        4.0%         127            153

# 6  Auto Mfrs-Foreign             2.9%          64             88

# 7  Mining-Gems                   2.8%         195            196

# 8  Oil&Gas-US Integrated         2.1%         146            167

# 9  Food-Meat Products            1.8%         141            151

#10  Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated       1.8%          41             93

#11  Oil&Gas-Field Services        1.6%         186            192

#12  Oil&Gas-Cdn Exp&Prod          1.3%         177            182

#13  Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod         1.1%         158            177

#14  Tobacco TOBACCO                .9%         129            138

#15  Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip        .7%         194            188

#16  Food-Flour & Grain             .6%         125            160

#17  Chemicals-Fertilizers          .6%         185            185

#18  Hsehold/Office Furniture       .1%          73             66

#19  Comml Svcs-Linen Supply        .1%          43             51

#20  Medical-Hospitals              .1%         160            158

#21  Utility-Water Supply           .0%           4              9

</color><color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>

</color><bold><underline><bigger>Worst 1 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank  Group                       Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188  Finance-Investment Mgmt    -
9.0$         48             27

#189  Auto Mfrs-Domestic         - 9.4%         65             22

#190  Insurance-Diversified      - 9.7%         93             43

#191  Financial Services-Misc    -10.3%         55             33

#192  Comml Svcs-Advertising     -11.6%         66             13

#193  Retail-Major Disc Chains   -11.8%         38             11

#194  Transportation-Airline     -12.6%        162            109

#195  Telecommunctns-Cellulr     -12.8%         10              6

#196  Banks-Money Center         -13.7%        174            124

#197  Computer Softwr-Internet   -14.7%          3              1

<bold>

</bold></color>FWIW,

Frank Wolynski


<fontfamily><param>Arial</param>

</fontfamily>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Scott Vickery <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 06 Sep 1998 19:47:12 -0400

Al,
Thanks for another tip.  That was one of the selling points for tc200 for
me.

One question I have though, is how closely do the groups within tc2000
match the groups as reported in IBD?

Another observation that you may be able to commenty on: The groups seem to
be fairly sparsely populated.  For example, Computer - Software (an area I
am familiar with) is very sparse.


Thank,
Scott



At 12:31 PM 9/6/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Scott Vickery wrote:
>>
>> This gets me started very well.
>>
>> Thank you.
>>
>> Scott
>
>You're quite welcome.
>
>Another tip that's not emphasized in the user's manual:  You can run
>scans of the industry group list (called All Worden's Industry Group
>Averages) to spot trends, surges, breakouts, etc.  Since TC2000 gives
>daily volume statistics on industry groups you can also apply all of the
>technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastics, MACD, money
>flow (called by Worden Time Segmented Volume), etc. to the industry
>group charts.
>
>I find that looking at the industry group trends on charts is much
>easier and better than trying to track their rankings.
>
>Al French
>
>> >> My question to those of you who use TC2000, can you point me in the
>> >> direction of how to create a scan that approximates CANSLIM.  Or,
>> >> more likely, an approximation of CASLI?
>> >>
>> >
>> >  Scott-
>> > Here's what I came up with which might give you a place to start and
>> >you can fine tune it to meet your needs:
>> >
>> >       Chart List:                             All Stocks
>> >       EPS percent change latest Qtr ("C")     Value 25 - Max
>> >       Earnings growth rate 5-yr ("A")         Value 25 - Max
>> >       EPS percent change 1 yr ("EPS")         Rank 75 - 99
>> >       Price growth rate 1 yr ("RS")           Rank 75 - 99
>> >       Sales growth rate                       Value 15 - Max
>> >       Price as percent of 52 week high        Value 85 - Max
>> >       Price per share                         Value 15 - Max
>> >       Price vs 200 day moving average         Value 100 - Max
>> >       Price vs 40 day moving average          Value 94 - Max
>> >       Volume surge 5 day                      Value 150 - Max
>> >
>> >       I hope this will help you get started.
>> >
>> >Al French
>> >
>> >-
>> >
>> >
>>
>> -
>
>-
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Banks
Date: 07 Sep 1998 18:47:57 +1200

Investors and analysts all suspect that Brazil will be the next country
to devalue its currency in an unstable world!
Major U.S. banks with overseas exposure have been consistently
hammered for several weeks now. Columbia's currency
devaluation last week threw a new spin (downward) for the
whole group. Now several banks are sliding to the sound
of a Latin American beat as bankers hold their breath
with Brazil on the verge of a devaluation of their own.
One currency analyst even proposed a 60% chance that Brazil
would devalue within the next 30 days. Moody's didn't
help the situation by putting 11 Brazilian banks on review
for possible downgrade. If Brazil does devalue, it is
likely to set off a domino affect with Venezuela and
Ecuador following soon after. Friday, CIBC Oppenheimer
cut EPS estimates for this year and next year's earnings
on all the banks listed below.
CMB - Chase Manhattan Bank $45.38 (-11.13)

Currently, CMB has about 16% of their equity tied up
in Brazil. CMB has forecast a 29% cut in earnings for
1998 due to overseas exposure.
CCI - Citicorp $92.50 (-24.62)

The mind-numbing descent continues as CCI hits new
52 week lows (after being at $180 seven weeks ago).
Friday, CCI traded as low as $89.13 (down -9.37).
According to one source, CCI has a total of 10% of
its equity in Brazil. Another source stated that
at the end of the last 2Q, CCI's exposure to Latin
America was $15.5 bln. Not a pretty picture, when you
figure that CCI is unable to protect its stock due
to its current merger status with Travelers. CCI has
forecast a 27% cut in earnings for 1998 due to
overseas exposure.
JPM - J.P. Morgan $86.94 (-10.81)

Plunging to a new 52 week low, JPM's outlook was slashed
by Oppenheimer with a downgrade from a "strong buy" to
a "hold". The real wound here is actually JPM's exposure
to Brazil. Currently 34% of its equity is in Brazil.
JPM has forecast a 51% cut in earnings for 1998 due to
overseas exposure. JPM derived 10% of their income from
Latin America last year.

JPM has been a rumored takeover target off
and on for months now.
BT - Banker's Trust $67.06 (-12.31)
BT actually closed positive on Friday (.56) when investors
found out that its total exposure to Latin America was
less than 2% of assets.

-Oppenheimer cut Travelers/Citicorp earnings
estimates on Friday based on continuing woes in
Russia. Latin America is emerging as an additional
potential source of losses.





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Banks
Date: 07 Sep 1998 09:47:52 -0400

There are rumors that Travelers may either call off or restructure its
proposed merger with Citicorp due to CCI's Brazilian exposure. It
appears that TRV's price plummet is due solely to this one factor, tho
I suspect its investments may also be a major factor.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>Investors and analysts all suspect that Brazil will be the next
country
>to devalue its currency in an unstable world!
>Major U.S. banks with overseas exposure have been consistently
>hammered for several weeks now

>CCI - Citicorp $92.50 (-24.62)
>
>The mind-numbing descent continues as CCI hits new
>52 week lows (after being at $180 seven weeks ago).
>Friday, CCI traded as low as $89.13 (down -9.37).
>According to one source, CCI has a total of 10% of
>its equity in Brazil. Another source stated that
>at the end of the last 2Q, CCI's exposure to Latin
>America was $15.5 bln. Not a pretty picture, when you
>figure that CCI is unable to protect its stock due
>to its current merger status with Travelers. CCI has
>forecast a 27% cut in earnings for 1998 due to
>overseas exposure.
>
>-Oppenheimer cut Travelers/Citicorp earnings
>estimates on Friday based on continuing woes in
>Russia. Latin America is emerging as an additional
>potential source of losses.
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday
Date: 07 Sep 1998 17:01:35 GMT

I'm looking for a big upday Tuesday. CME futures are positive like I
don't remember ever seeing:

http://www.cme.com/market/gflash.html

World markets on monday surging almost everywhere:

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday
Date: 07 Sep 1998 14:29:52 EDT

In a message dated 9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail] writes:

<< Subj:     [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday
 Date:    9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time
 From:    [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
 Sender:    [e-mail]
 Reply-to:    [e-mail]
 To:    [e-mail]

 I'm looking for a big upday Tuesday. CME futures are positive like I
 don't remember ever seeing:

 http://www.cme.com/market/gflash.html

 World markets on monday surging almost everywhere:

 http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

 Dan
 [e-mail]

 -
  >>
Dan:

I am sure you are not shorting too many!

5-15% (record gains) tuesday!!! at least at the open.

Surindra

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Richard Korman <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #378
Date: 07 Sep 1998 04:51:06 -0400



I am a Macintosh owner and don''t know of any scanning software available for
Mac's. I use http://www.iqc.com/scan/default.asp   to do my stock scans.  Any
help you could give me as to the criteria I should input would be very helpful.

Richard Korman


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Al French <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 and CANSLIM
Date: 07 Sep 1998 20:45:51 -0400

Scott Vickery wrote:
>
> Al,
> Thanks for another tip.  That was one of the selling points for tc200 > for me.
>
> One question I have though, is how closely do the groups within tc2000
> match the groups as reported in IBD?
>
    There are about 100 Worden groups (the Media General groups can't be
charted) vs. 197 in IBD. Thus, the Worden groups are more general. It
would be nice if IBD, Dow Jones, Zack's, Media General, Worden's, and
others would agree on a standard of industry groupings but that will
probably never happen.

> Another observation that you may be able to commenty on: The groups
> seem to be fairly sparsely populated.  For example, Computer -
> Software (an area I am familiar with) is very sparse.
>
    The group lists are representative samples, not an exhaustive list of
stocks within each group. I think they also only include large- and
mid-cap stocks in their sample.

Al French

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] On Tuesday's market
Date: 07 Sep 1998 21:14:15 -0400

Another massive move up in the Japanese mkt. Gained over 5% yesterday,
opened up 100 pts tonight and now up nearly 500 pts for another 3.28%.
Guess the Japanese investors like the "go slow" policy of their govt.
Nonetheless, rest of Asia is following, and suggests a good day for
Europe and the USA on Tuesday.


Futures are also strong and gaining, now up well over 2%.

Tom W




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] ValueJet
Date: 07 Sep 1998 22:28:21 EDT

Dan
ref: Isn't ValueJet now AirTran (advertising itself as the safest
:airline-never had an accident) flying out of Kansas City?
Yes, it is. ValuJet and Airtran Merged into one and they kept the Airtran
Name.
Robert

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday
Date: 08 Sep 1998 04:06:29 GMT

On Mon, 7 Sep 1998 14:29:52 EDT, you wrote:

:In a message dated 9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
:[e-mail] writes:
:
:<< Subj:     [CANSLIM] Big day Tuesday
: Date:    9/7/98 1:14:34 PM Eastern Daylight Time
: From:    [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
: Sender:    [e-mail]
: Reply-to:    [e-mail]
: To:    [e-mail]
:=20
: I'm looking for a big upday Tuesday. CME futures are positive like I
: don't remember ever seeing:
:=20
: http://www.cme.com/market/gflash.html
:=20
: World markets on monday surging almost everywhere:
:=20
: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
:=20
: Dan
: [e-mail]
:=20
: -
:  >>
:Dan:
:
:I am sure you are not shorting too many!
:
:5-15% (record gains) tuesday!!! at least at the open.
:
:Surindra

Surindra,=20

Actually I do have only one position: a large short position on CLX,
and am concerned about how I'm going to get out of it gracefully (with
minimal losses). Oh, well. I don't have a good sense of timing lately.
Too busy to pay enough attention.

Dan

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs
Date: 08 Sep 1998 07:55:05 -0400

None has esp good charts, except for the utilities

All but MATW have at least 20% earnings growth forecasted.

BEI charts suggests it also is under a buyout, haven't researched it

CSC has 155 mil shares out

UFS has a possible cup and handle

Of the utilities, (MDU, PSC, ARTNA)  the latter has the best yield
(4.7%)

PSC is quite extended

By definition (since all have RS and EPS of at least 80), they all
have at least some CS characteristics

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>
>>MDU, CSC, WATR, PSC, UFS, BEI, ARTNA, USCS (forget it, a takeover
>>already in place), and MATW. Haven't looked at the charts yet to see
>>if any worth watching.
>
>Tom, have you had a chance to check any of the charts out for your
>abovementioned list? Any CANSLI candidates?
>
>David
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts
Date: 08 Sep 1998 20:04:59 +0200

The best CANSLIM picks from my watch list are not going to wait for me
alas... :-)

TSFW breaking out on 2.9x  ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently

METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues 9/8)

Bye, bye... (No, that is NOT Buy, buy...  We have not had a follow-through
day yet and even if we do have one today, we are still in a down trend. I
expect that Jeffrey will be quite delighted when he takes note of my
(still) bearish attitude. ;^)








Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 21:15:54 +0200

The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish.

I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that
have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group
requirement out, for now. :)



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: mikelu <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 12:52:29 -0700

I was thinking of ADAC, but the base is a little short.

Mike

-----Original Message-----
Sent:    Tuesday, September 08, 1998 12:16 PM

The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish.

I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that
have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group
requirement out, for now. :)



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 15:56:29 -0400


>The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish.
>
>I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that
>have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group
>requirement out, for now. :)

Hi Johan,

Can't find many.  Looked for bases yesterday and found few that looked like
much. Here is a list of stocks, some with great gains today, that also were
on my watch list.  A couple were breakouts.  A few with ugly charts are low
level breakouts (good volume, near a new high).  I found quite a few stocks
that had failed breakouts due to market action and then pulled back out of
the base last week.  They are up nicely today on a secondary breakout.
Everything I look at is too extended, too ugly a base, or not quite there
yet.  Weird market.

As you say, definitely a followthrough in my book.  And somehow I trust
this one more than the last (failed) one (esp. since we have had a
climactic looking bottom put in and a monster bounce the next day).  Now we
just need to figure out who the leaders will be.  I expect a choppy market
with some workable breakouts mixed with some failures (OPINION only - worth
what you paid for it).

Best regards,
Craig

tsfw
neon
lgto
nspr
cbiz
spri
emc
qlgc
mnmd
payx
sut
adac
avei
dt
csc
jnj
lgto


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 13:22:46 -0700

On 12:56 PM 9/8/98 , Craig Griffin Said:
>
>>The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish.
>>
>>I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that
>>have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group
>>requirement out, for now. :)
>
>lgto <what kind of a base is that? It's on my list too but it was at 14
Friday
from a high of 40-1/2 in mid-July! Does O'Neil have a new "cliff" base that I
missed?

You didn't mention JKHY, which of the 12 or so stocks on my list is closest to
it's recent high (45-15/16 vs. 46-1/2). Definitely not much of a base though.


Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

mailto:[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 16:40:19 -0400

Tim,

>>lgto <what kind of a base is that? It's on my list too but it was at 14
>Friday
>from a high of 40-1/2 in mid-July! Does O'Neil have a new "cliff" base that I
>missed?

You must be thinking of a different stock.  LGTO closed at 49 7/8 today up
7 7/8, per Yahoo.  I read it as coming out of an ugly 8 week base with the
pivot at about 47.

>You didn't mention JKHY, which of the 12 or so stocks on my list is
closest to
>it's recent high (45-15/16 vs. 46-1/2). Definitely not much of a base though.

Yep, it is on my list too.   I read it as having broken out on 7/20 with a
pivot at 38.  It made little progress, pulled back into the base, came back
out, made some more progress and then pulled back to test the top of the
base again.  Yesterday (Friday), it was at 42 and I thought to buy it if it
fleshed out a base before the follow-through day came (I guessed I had at
least another month - WRONG).  Instead, it launched today out of a 4 week
base, too short to play with IMO.  Just barely a new high though, maybe it
will pull back and base a few more weeks before going for real - then I
might go for it.


>
>Tim Fisher
>Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites
>
>mailto:[e-mail]
>WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
>See naked fish and rocks!
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Speaking of Leaders
Date: 08 Sep 1998 13:52:40 -0700 (PDT)




The volume leaders on the Naz today were

DELL
INTC
CCMC
CSCO
MSFT
WCOM
ASND
COMS
ORCL
TLAB

In other words, the usual.  The only stock on the price % gainers list
above $7 was SERO.

On the NYSE, the volume leaders were

TRV
CPQ
CMB
LU
CCI
GE
TBR
DIS
CD
AOL

So, networks, telecom, computers, software, internet, financials--the
usual.  If the "leadership" hasn't changed (i.e., the Nifty 20),
finding proper bases won't be easy.

--Db

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 13:56:04 -0700

Brain fart - thinking LGTO and looking at LBOR! LGTO got bounced from my watch
list.

P.S. Anyone notice how the big boys opened everything up something like 15%
and
then most of them fell to close up from Friday but down from the open? Is that
a tactic to catch market orders placed over the weekend? Not that I would have
placed any before today, but if I did place an order on something like DELL
only to lose a couple percent on a day like this, I'd be really steamed.

On 01:40 PM 9/8/98 , Craig Griffin Said:
>Tim,
>
>>>lgto <what kind of a base is that? It's on my list too but it was at 14
>>Friday
>>from a high of 40-1/2 in mid-July! Does O'Neil have a new "cliff" base
that I
>>missed?
>
>You must be thinking of a different stock.  LGTO closed at 49 7/8 today up
>7 7/8, per Yahoo.  I read it as coming out of an ugly 8 week base with the
>pivot at about 47.
>
>>You didn't mention JKHY, which of the 12 or so stocks on my list is
>closest to
>>it's recent high (45-15/16 vs. 46-1/2). Definitely not much of a base
though.
>
>Yep, it is on my list too.   I read it as having broken out on 7/20 with a
>pivot at 38.  It made little progress, pulled back into the base, came back
>out, made some more progress and then pulled back to test the top of the
>base again.  Yesterday (Friday), it was at 42 and I thought to buy it if it
>fleshed out a base before the follow-through day came (I guessed I had at
>least another month - WRONG).  Instead, it launched today out of a 4 week
>base, too short to play with IMO.  Just barely a new high though, maybe it
>will pull back and base a few more weeks before going for real - then I
>might go for it.
>

Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

mailto:[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anindo Majumdar <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Followthrough
Date: 08 Sep 1998 18:18:54 -0700 (PDT)

  NASDAQvolume today was 783,606,000 which was less than Friday's volume of
800,751,200.Doesn't O'Neil say that the volume has to be greater than the previous day to qualify as a valid follow through.

>
> The best CANSLIM picks from my watch list are not going to wait for me
> alas... :-)
>
> TSFW breaking out on 2.9x  ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently
>
> METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues 9/8)
>
> Bye, bye... (No, that is NOT Buy, buy...  We have not had a follow-through
> day yet and even if we do have one today, we are still in a down trend. I
> expect that Jeffrey will be quite delighted when he takes note of my
> (still) bearish attitude. ;^)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followthrough
Date: 08 Sep 1998 21:45:04 -0400

At 06:18 PM 9/8/98 -0700, you wrote:
>  NASDAQvolume today was 783,606,000 which was less than Friday's volume of
>800,751,200.Doesn't O'Neil say that the volume has to be greater than the
previous day to qualify as a valid follow through.

Friday's volume was 626,724,000 on the NASDAQ per both QP2 and Yahoo.  You
can go here http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.O&d=t and look at the Prev Cls
field.

BTW, the up/down volume was 10 to 1 on the NYSE and 7 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Both rather extreme (bullish) figures.  See http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u for
details.

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day??
Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:25:58 -0400

I must confess, today had the look, taste, feel and smell of a follow
thru day. However, a word of caution: the primary force behind today
was Greenspan's hint on Friday being widely interpreted by the media
and traders as suggesting a rate cut is near by the Feds.

This "news event" coming in the midst of a severely beaten down mkt,
and substantial bearish sentiment for the first time in a long while,
gave the mkt every excuse to rally. It's unlikely, IMHO, that the Feds
will cut at the Sep 29 meeting having just shifted from a bias towards
a rate hike to a neutral stance. And it's equally unlikely, again
IMHO, that any rate cut will be half a percent. The Feds have a
demonstrated history of increasing by half a percent and decreasing by
a qtr percent.

I also have concerns over today's volume, BTW the chart at DGO for
Nasdaq also shows the volume for Friday higher than today, also for
NYSE. On the other hand, recent volumes have been so volatile and high
as to possibly negate the significance (or requirement) that the
follow thru vol beat the prior day, so long as it's still well over
average and close to the prior day. Just a thought, no research yet to
back up a brain fart idea.

HOWEVER, once the enthusiasm and momentum of this "news event" driven
mkt dies off, what will it take to either sustain or move the mkt
higher?? Solid earnings growth in the big cap, or even mid cap,
stocks?? Unlikely. Sudden economic and political bliss in Russia??
Dream on. Unexpected aggressive economic action by the Japanese
leadership?? Another fantasy. Massive recovery in Latin America as oil
prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another
hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the
three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts,
decided not to meet after all.

In other words, my gut tells me today may represent the follow thru
day we have been looking (hoping, praying, counting) for, but because
it is news driven, as opposed to technical, then you must also
evaluate the value and significance of the news. Without some
fundamental changes in several economies, then this just becomes
another bit of noise that can soon fade away. And the downside is that
just as Greenspan didn't want to raise rates in the face of some mild
inflationary evidence for fear he would harm other currencies and
economies, he now is faced with the possibility that he may have to
cut rates to help those same foreign issues as their troubles become
clearer and even worse, even as inflation in the USA builds. A tough
balancing act, and one that could ultimately end the favorable
noninflationary environment we have enjoyed for years.

Tom W




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] WatchList Candidates
Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:57:59 -0400

In these turbulent times, (I totally missed todays action!) I find the
following charts very interesting. Both groups are in ranking positions I
am particularly fond of!  :-)

None of these are to be considered recommendations to buy. I am just
openingly sharing a few on my watch list with not too bad technical charts
considering the market.

Group = Computer Services #26
(Ticker - EPS/RS - Acc/Dist - Float Mil.)
CSGS - 64/93 - B - 22   (a bit loose, but MF is very tight and setting NH's)
METG - 70/98 - B -  7.9 (NH, 7-8 week base, great chart action, gotta love
it!)
TIER - 98/96 - B -  5.5 (Flat base has held above 200day MOV)
NEON - 76/99 - B -  6.5 (NH, bit wild, but advancing on advancing on Vol)
TSFW - 98/99 - B -  5.2 (NH, Strong volume breakout, above 50 & 200day MOV)

Group = Computer Optical Recognition #45
SBL  - 94/98 - B - ??   (Near NH, price action/MF strong, above 50&200day
MOV.)
NLCS - 87/96 - B - 27   (4/8 from a NH, nice & tight above 200day, )
                        (around the 50day & MF advancing, volume picking up)
                        (recently!)

FWIW,
Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:58:53 -0400

Johan,
While I haven't shook off my bearish sentiments, will share the few on
my watch list that look more promising.

Would agree that it's very difficult to find any with a decent base,
whether you measure it from the bottom of the cliff or the top of the
mountain.

Mostly I respect the resiliency shown by these:

DAKT, HWLD, MCSC (no, despite the name, it's not a local co, based in
Dayton, Ohio); PVCC (for the speculators only, low priced and thinly
traded, but basing); TSFW (tho now way too extended); CBIZ (kicking
myself on this after today).

Disclosure: don't own a share of any of them, but likely will once I
figure out how to dig myself out of the hole I put myself into.

Please note: am posting this list despite my continued bearish
sentiments, and grave distrust of today as a "follow thru" day.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is
bearish.
>
>I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and
that
>have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong
group
>requirement out, for now. :)
>
>
>
>Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day
Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:00:59 -0400

Nice shopping list for watching, Craig.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>
>Can't find many.  Looked for bases yesterday and found few that
looked like
>much. Here is a list of stocks, some with great gains today, that
also were
>on my watch list.  A couple were breakouts.  A few with ugly charts
are low
>level breakouts (good volume, near a new high

>Everything I look at is too extended, too ugly a base, or not quite
there

>Best regards,
>Craig
>
>tsfw
>neon
>lgto
>nspr
>cbiz
>spri
>emc
>qlgc
>mnmd
>payx
>sut
>adac
>avei
>dt
>csc
>jnj
>lgto
>
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day??
Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:18:50 -0400

At 22:25 9/8/98 -0400, you wrote:
> Massive recovery in Latin America as oil
>prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another
>hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the
>three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts,
>decided not to meet after all.
>
>
>Tom W
>

Where most of the European and Asian currencies have rallied the past week,
the Mexican peso and I believe other Latin currencies have been woefully
absent from the rally! (See IBD futures charts.) I'm interpreting this as a
precursor of events yet unfolded, but perhaps feared.

Treasuries were notably absent from the rally also! But I heard that
explained away as they were already discounting the reduction in rate
possibility.
If that is true, then I suppose as fast as it began, it is over!
Mission accomplished!
(Unload treasuries and the dollar at good prices, buy domestic stocks!
Thanks Mr. Greenspan and America, that was a much needed boost in liquidity!)

I dunno, I'm still learning. Just food for thought.

Regards,
Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts
Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:07:06 -0400

World markets, thumbnails, updated every 60 seconds while the markets are
open. Pretty neat site for those interested in the world markets.

http://wwfn.com/sample/oscharts.html

Enjoy,
Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated  earnings
Date: 08 Sep 1998 19:58:25 -0700 (PDT)

Craig, you asked for " estimated earnings thing"
Try this:
http://quote.fool.com/estimates/estimates.asp?symbols=CAT
TM

---Craig Griffin <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> Can't help you directly on the estimated earnings thing, though I am
sure
> it is out there.  However ...
>
> For someone who uses a similar model to value the market - take a
look here
> ===>
> http://www.magma.ca/~davef/    (Dave's Investment World).
>
> He does a very nice job with historical valuations.  As you say, not
> Canslim directly - but interesting to know and potentially useful for
> thinking about things.  One of my favorite sites.
>
>
> At 01:26 PM 9/2/98 -0700, you wrote:
> >Does anyone know where I can find a web site posting the estimated
> >earnings for the S&P500?  I am interested in using the difference
> >between the future estimated earnings of SP500 and the yield on
> >Treasuries to help determine the market outlook (M).
> >Thanks,
> >rolatzi
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >_________________________________________________________
> >DO YOU YAHOO!?
> >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
> >
> >
> >-
> >
> >
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day?
Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:34:47 -0400

The reversal day was 9/1.  The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares.
Today's volume was 817 million shares.  The expansion in volume WON talks
about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in
this case, 9/1 - and the following days.  Since today's volume contracted
rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today
to be a follow-through day.  In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the
last 5
trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day weekend).

---Dave Steckler

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook
Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:52:11 -0400


Wednesday, September 9, 1998

PROLONGED SLUMP FORECAST

World closer to recession as Japanese economy slated

By RUSSELL SKELTON in Tokyo

The global economy moved a step closer to recession yesterday after the
release of a deeply
pessimistic report by Japan's Economic Planning Agency (EPA), warning that
the world's
second-biggest economy was now "lost at the bottom" of the worst downturn
in 50 years.

In an uncharacteristically frank report, the planning agency said the
Japanese economy was in a
"prolonged slump" and the outlook was "extremely severe", especially for
the global economy,
which was on the "threshold of a very difficult phase".

"The instability of the financial markets, combined with worsening housing
starts, brought about the
downward assessment in September," an EPA official said. The one bright
spot was in exports that
had managed to remain stable despite the collapse of Asian markets.

The release of the EPA's gloomy September report, which virtually dismisses
any prospect of a
return to growth in the economy, came as the yen and Tokyo Stocks continued
to strengthen on
investors' fears of a spreading recession in Russia and South America.

The Nikkei index closed at 14,913.49, a rise of 123.43 points or 0.83 per
cent on the previous
day's close. At one stage the Nikkei jumped 500 points to break the
15,000-point barrier for the first
time in several weeks. But the rally was shortlived as investors grabbed
profits.

Dealers said later the rebound in the market could not be sustained because
"Japan's fundamentals
aren't very good".

At noon the yen was also showing signs of weakening, sliding from 131.33 to
the US dollar to
132.43 in a few hours.

There are no signs that the gridlock over financial reform bills in the
Diet, Japan's Parliament, are
any closer to being resolved.

The opposition Democratic Party of Japan continued to block funds to bail
out the failed Long Term
Credit Bank of Japan (LTCB). Worried that the collapse of the bank may lead
to a "systemic"
banking collapse, the Obuchi Government is working on plans to make a
one-off injection of funds
to save the bank.

The Government believes the LTCB crisis is so great it cannot afford to
wait for its new banking
reform legislation to be passed by the Diet in several months.

While the plight of Japan's debt-encumbered banking sector is well known,
there are widespread
fears that the collapse of the LTCB could bring down much of Japan's
financial system.

The EPA assessment found that recovery in Japan's economy may come from the
Obuchi
Government's second 10 trillion-yen supplementary Budget and promised tax
cuts worth about 6
trillion yen. But these moves are a long way off and yet to be approved by
the Diet.

The EPA said in its September report the economy was being dragged down by
a slump in personal
spending, falling incomes and a massive contraction in the housing
industry. Housing starts are
down 11 per cent on last year.


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 00:55:21 -0400

(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.)
Frank
---------------------------
In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly,
frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down.

The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at
the time.  The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at
the time.  The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time.

On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest
one day point gain ever.

The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55
points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading.  The Dow had closed
the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high.

The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record
gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked.  These are the
times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO.

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Joe Scott" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts
Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:51:01 -0500

Thanks Frank thats an interesting site, checking it out now...
sure will come in handy..
don't know a thing
joe
[e-mail]
http://www.koyote.com/users/jo



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: mikelu <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day?
Date: 08 Sep 1998 22:45:33 -0700

Are you sure about the volume being greater than the first day? In chapter
7, WON says

"Wait for a Second Confirmation at Market Bottoms

At stock market lows, the individual investor is safer to wait for a second
confirmation of the turn before buying heavily. The bottom day in the Dow
Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first
indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with the Dow Jones
up 18 or 20 points or more (if the Dow is in the 1800  area) and
accompanied by an increase in daily voume from the day before, will usually
be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This
is your second confirmation and main buy signal. Follow-throughs after the
tenth day indicate weakness."

-----Original Message-----
Sent:    Tuesday, September 08, 1998 9:35 PM

The reversal day was 9/1.  The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares.
Today's volume was 817 million shares.  The expansion in volume WON talks
about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in
this case, 9/1 - and the following days.  Since today's volume contracted
rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today
to be a follow-through day.  In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the
last 5
trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day
weekend).

---Dave Steckler




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: mikelu <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day??
Date: 08 Sep 1998 23:47:45 -0700

How are you getting the volume so early? It doesn't seem to come out until around midnight.

Mike

-----Original Message-----
Sent:    Tuesday, September 08, 1998 7:26 PM

I must confess, today had the look, taste, feel and smell of a follow
thru day. However, a word of caution: the primary force behind today
was Greenspan's hint on Friday being widely interpreted by the media
and traders as suggesting a rate cut is near by the Feds.

This "news event" coming in the midst of a severely beaten down mkt,
and substantial bearish sentiment for the first time in a long while,
gave the mkt every excuse to rally. It's unlikely, IMHO, that the Feds
will cut at the Sep 29 meeting having just shifted from a bias towards
a rate hike to a neutral stance. And it's equally unlikely, again
IMHO, that any rate cut will be half a percent. The Feds have a
demonstrated history of increasing by half a percent and decreasing by
a qtr percent.

I also have concerns over today's volume, BTW the chart at DGO for
Nasdaq also shows the volume for Friday higher than today, also for
NYSE. On the other hand, recent volumes have been so volatile and high
as to possibly negate the significance (or requirement) that the
follow thru vol beat the prior day, so long as it's still well over
average and close to the prior day. Just a thought, no research yet to
back up a brain fart idea.

HOWEVER, once the enthusiasm and momentum of this "news event" driven
mkt dies off, what will it take to either sustain or move the mkt
higher?? Solid earnings growth in the big cap, or even mid cap,
stocks?? Unlikely. Sudden economic and political bliss in Russia??
Dream on. Unexpected aggressive economic action by the Japanese
leadership?? Another fantasy. Massive recovery in Latin America as oil
prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another
hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the
three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts,
decided not to meet after all.

In other words, my gut tells me today may represent the follow thru
day we have been looking (hoping, praying, counting) for, but because
it is news driven, as opposed to technical, then you must also
evaluate the value and significance of the news. Without some
fundamental changes in several economies, then this just becomes
another bit of noise that can soon fade away. And the downside is that
just as Greenspan didn't want to raise rates in the face of some mild
inflationary evidence for fear he would harm other currencies and
economies, he now is faced with the possibility that he may have to
cut rates to help those same foreign issues as their troubles become
clearer and even worse, even as inflation in the USA builds. A tough
balancing act, and one that could ultimately end the favorable
noninflationary environment we have enjoyed for years.

Tom W




-



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 20:35:23 +1200

I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the market
gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive.

The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong relief
rally
given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic
levels.

As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity
put/call ratio registered .72 Friday.  This was the highest mark
since the level posted in October 1990 (.66).  The CBOE Market
Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week.  This
extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash.

In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track
relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You
should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support
and resistance points.  Often times, sector indexes reveal the
market's natural rotation.

We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest
before the recent correction.  Specifically keep an eye on
Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next
rally based upon their relative strength.  Not surprisingly, these
sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday.

   Internet   9.7%
   Retail     7.4%
   Hardware   6.2%

Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average:

                        Reversal          Near-Term  Re-Entry
Sector                   Signal            Support    Point
**************************************************************
Drug             DRG     Tweezer Bottom    610        640  *
Healthcare       HCX     Tweezer Bottom    600        635  *

Hardware         XCI     Tweezer Bottom    505        540  *
Internet         INX     Tweezer Bottom    145        165  *
Retail           RLX     Tweezer Bottom    630        665  *

As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials shot
higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy programs
lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM so I am
dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger
zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS
warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals, hold
the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad news from
overseas and EPS comes in.

-----Original Message-----


>(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.)
>Frank
>---------------------------
>In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly,
>frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down.
>
>The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at
>the time.  The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at
>the time.  The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time.
>
>On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest
>one day point gain ever.
>
>The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55
>points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading.  The Dow had closed
>the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high.
>
>The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record
>gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked.  These are the
>times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO.
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day?
Date: 09 Sep 1998 06:48:44 -0400

I am not proposing the volume be greater than the first day.
This message was from the AOL canslim forum and represents the
authors interpretation of the 1%, up volume follow through.
I thought it an interesting variation of a subject that has had much
discussion here and it could provide some additional insight. (Especially
the treatment of Friday).

I too found the declining volume going into Friday to be sufficiently heavy
enough to warrant skepticism of yesterdays follow through. The prior three
days volume seemed heavy enough that it would take a really convincing
number of advancing shares to increase the odds that yesterday was one of
the 80% reliable days.

I had intended to get the authors permission to post his interpretation,
but I queued the clip up incorrectly and the unedited version inadvertently
went out when I connected my mail program. My apologies to the group and to
the author.

Frank Wolynski
At 22:45 9/8/98 -0700, you wrote:
>Are you sure about the volume being greater than the first day? In chapter
>7, WON says
>
>"Wait for a Second Confirmation at Market Bottoms
>
>At stock market lows, the individual investor is safer to wait for a second
>confirmation of the turn before buying heavily. The bottom day in the Dow
>Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first
>indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with the Dow Jones
>up 18 or 20 points or more (if the Dow is in the 1800  area) and
>accompanied by an increase in daily voume from the day before, will usually
>be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This
>is your second confirmation and main buy signal. Follow-throughs after the
>tenth day indicate weakness."
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From:    Frank V. Wolynski [SMTP:[e-mail]]
>Sent:    Tuesday, September 08, 1998 9:35 PM
>To:    [e-mail]
>Subject:    [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day?
>
>The reversal day was 9/1.  The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares.
>Today's volume was 817 million shares.  The expansion in volume WON talks
>about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in
>this case, 9/1 - and the following days.  Since today's volume contracted
>rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today
>to be a follow-through day.  In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the
>last 5
>trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day
>weekend).
>
>---Dave Steckler
>
>
>
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook
Date: 09 Sep 1998 06:58:06 -0400

And likely due this report and the drop in the Japanese mkt last
night, the yen is even weaker against the dollar, now trading over 136
vs 131.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>
>Wednesday, September 9, 1998
>
>PROLONGED SLUMP FORECAST
>

>The release of the EPA's gloomy September report, which virtually
dismisses
>any prospect of a
>return to growth in the economy, came as the yen and Tokyo Stocks
continued
>to strengthen on
>investors' fears of a spreading recession in Russia and South
America.
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day??
Date: 09 Sep 1998 07:04:28 -0400

Looks like you're right, went back and took another look at the chart
this morning, and does now appear vol on Tuesday beat Friday's (pre
holiday) volume. Tho the chart showed Tuesday's date and closing
price, the volume apparently had not yet been updated.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>How are you getting the volume so early? It doesn't seem to come out
until around midnight.
>
>Mike
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 04:48:53 -0700 (PDT)

Dean,
Thank you for the post. It clarifies what I've been studying.
"And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger"
I read some of John Murphy's Visual Investor this weekend.  He talks
about interest sensitive stocks, groups.  For interest issues
Financials, REITs, Banks should all be affected deeply; they have the
most immediate gain from falling interest rates.  So "until they buy
the banks", the interest rumor is just that.

TM




---Dean Edwards <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the
market
> gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive.
>
> The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong
relief
> rally
> given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic
> levels.
>
> As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity
> put/call ratio registered .72 Friday.  This was the highest mark
> since the level posted in October 1990 (.66).  The CBOE Market
> Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week.  This
> extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash.
>
> In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track
> relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You
> should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support
> and resistance points.  Often times, sector indexes reveal the
> market's natural rotation.
>
> We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest
> before the recent correction.  Specifically keep an eye on
> Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next
> rally based upon their relative strength.  Not surprisingly, these
> sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday.
>
>    Internet   9.7%
>    Retail     7.4%
>    Hardware   6.2%
>
> Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average:
>
>                         Reversal          Near-Term  Re-Entry
> Sector                   Signal            Support    Point
> **************************************************************
> Drug             DRG     Tweezer Bottom    610        640  *
> Healthcare       HCX     Tweezer Bottom    600        635  *
>
> Hardware         XCI     Tweezer Bottom    505        540  *
> Internet         INX     Tweezer Bottom    145        165  *
> Retail           RLX     Tweezer Bottom    630        665  *
>
> As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials
shot
> higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy
programs
> lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM
so I am
> dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a
danger
> zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS
> warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals,
hold
> the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad
news from
> overseas and EPS comes in.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Frank V. Wolynski <[e-mail]>
> To: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
> Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 6:41 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
>
>
> >(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.)
> >Frank
> >---------------------------
> >In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating
wildly,
> >frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down.
> >
> >The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop
ever at
> >the time.  The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day
ever at
> >the time.  The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the
time.
> >
> >On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its
biggest
> >one day point gain ever.
> >
> >The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping
91.55
> >points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading.  The Dow
had closed
> >the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time
high.
> >
> >The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that
record
> >gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked.  These
are the
> >times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO.
> >
> >-
> >
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Oversold Oscillator
Date: 09 Sep 1998 07:45:14 -0400

Thought I'd mention that even after yesterday's heavy imbalance
favoring up vol over down vol, the Oversold Oscillator at DGO for
Nasdaq is still pegged out at -899. On NYSE however, it came off the
stops and now is at -632.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 09:05:11 -0400

Dean,

Thanks for sharing your newsletter with us and your thoughts.  As usual,
excellent post.

I agree with most others posting here in the last 24 hour in their
sentiment, the market doesn't really "seem" like it has had a
follow-through: no good leadership groups, no great looking bases, few
breakouts on the follow-through day, weak volume on Friday to compare
against, way oversold so we were due a big bounce, VIX way too high for
Canslim investing to be recommended, etc.  It is a very tricky market
(first bear I have seen when I knew how to notice).

This may be another of the 20% of the follow-throughs that fail.
Unfortunately to clearly signal its failure the NASDAQ must drop over 10%
from here (below 1500).  This would be extremely painful if one re-enters
stocks at this point.  Unlike a normal follow-through, where I am inclined
to dive in because I know the water is warm (get 100% invested quickly) ...
at this point I am only dipping a toe in the water, maybe two.
Unfortunately, O'Neil says that often the inclination is not to believe the
follow-through because at that point things look so bleak.  So could be the
80% after all.  :^0.  Yahhhhh ...

Well, for the market to get much of my money back, it will have to show
some lowered volatility and some decent bases and some breakouts and some
leadership and better internals (new high/low, advance/decline line
improvement, etc.).  Until then I am extremely tentative.

Just some thoughts - not "pure" Canslim.  Or at least more complex than
normal.

Best regards,
Craig



At 08:35 PM 9/9/98 +1200, you wrote:
>I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the market
>gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive.
>
>The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong relief
>rally
>given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic
>levels.
>
>As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity
>put/call ratio registered .72 Friday.  This was the highest mark
>since the level posted in October 1990 (.66).  The CBOE Market
>Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week.  This
>extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash.
>
>In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track
>relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You
>should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support
>and resistance points.  Often times, sector indexes reveal the
>market's natural rotation.
>
>We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest
>before the recent correction.  Specifically keep an eye on
>Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next
>rally based upon their relative strength.  Not surprisingly, these
>sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday.
>
>   Internet   9.7%
>   Retail     7.4%
>   Hardware   6.2%
>
>Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average:
>
>                        Reversal          Near-Term  Re-Entry
>Sector                   Signal            Support    Point
>**************************************************************
>Drug             DRG     Tweezer Bottom    610        640  *
>Healthcare       HCX     Tweezer Bottom    600        635  *
>
>Hardware         XCI     Tweezer Bottom    505        540  *
>Internet         INX     Tweezer Bottom    145        165  *
>Retail           RLX     Tweezer Bottom    630        665  *
>
>As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials shot
>higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy programs
>lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM so I am
>dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger
>zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS
>warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals, hold
>the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad news from
>overseas and EPS comes in.
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Frank V. Wolynski <[e-mail]>
>To: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
>Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 6:41 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
>
>
>>(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.)
>>Frank
>>---------------------------
>>In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly,
>>frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down.
>>
>>The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at
>>the time.  The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at
>>the time.  The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time.
>>
>>On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest
>>one day point gain ever.
>>
>>The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55
>>points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading.  The Dow had closed
>>the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high.
>>
>>The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record
>>gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked.  These are the
>>times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO.
>>
>>-
>>
>
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Harlan <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] The new Bull Market is here!!!!!!    YA RIGHT!!!!!!
Date: 09 Sep 1998 07:18:36 -0700

Yes ladies and gentlemen its a brand new bull market with only one thing
thats significantly different from the last one we just went through.
Its in the opposite direction! Its all on the SHORT SIDE.

The following are a list of names that have either topped or are in a
correctional phase. After each name will be a little blurp about it. As
for stops those technically oriented use either the moving average
mentioned (50,200) as your guide, areas of overhead supply, or
resistance levels. For the sake of this post and simplicity we'll use a
straight 10% stop. Keep in mind this is just a sampling.

OTC stocks

AMZN- 100ish is resistance, closed at 92.25, short on any strength
ASND-use the 50day as a guide/ overhead supply starts hanging around at
45ish, closed at 45.125
CSCO- use the 50day as your guide 96.25ish, closed at 94.625
COLTY- screamer over last yr!,overhead supply starts at 41ish,50day at
44.875. Closed at 40.25
COST -Bumping head against downtrend line and a tad bit o overhead
supply too. closed at 55.375
FILE- resistance is at 22ish closed at 18.25
HBOC- 200 day ave at 28ish, closed at 26.50
INTU- 200 day at 48ish, closed at 44.3125
LAMR- 200 day at 33, closed at 30.375
MSPG- 50 day at 38ish, closed at 35.125
SAPE- 200 day at 42.00, massive overhead supply starts at 40ish, closed
at 36.5 and is having trouble moving up.
TAGS- 50day at 22, overhead supply starts around the same level,closed
at 19.8125
VISX- massive overhead supply around the 59 level, closed at 56.375,
prime candidate.
YHOO- not for the timid, 50day at 90ish,closed at 84.625 and entering an
area of overhead supply

NYSE stocks

AEH- hasnt broken the 50day yet,but the moment it does on a closing
basis watch out. closed at 30.68
AOL- resistance at 105ish, decent overhead supply starts around the 100
mark. Closed at 95.25
BMY- 50day at 113ish, closed at 108.25
GPS- In initial snapback mode yesterday, 50day at 61.40, any weakness
and  it Could doesnt mean it will fall back down to the sub 50 level,
closed at 61.00
GE- use 200 day as your guide (82.125) closed at 81.875, my personal
fav.
HNZ- 55 is resistance, 50day is 54.625ish, not a screamer.
LXK- they're printers are give aways with puter packages these days,
basically junk. use 50day as guide (66.40) closed at 59.75, I'd leave
alone unless it rallys.
UMG- use 50 day as guide, screamed yesterday on mediorce vol. any move
back below the 50day ave (46.625) and I'd consider it. Closed at47.31
PFE- massive overhead supply starts at anything over 100, 50 day at
108ish, closed at 100.6875

===========================
thats all I've got time for now but theres a lot more.
PS Time to buy the Big banks,Brokerages?     NOT
   Time to buy the Oils?     NOT
Sucker rally? most likely
Retest of the lows on the S&P 500 (940ish) with an undercut? very strong
possibility.

If your not able to go short, keep your head down, and cash is king.
If anyone is looking for a good example of what can happen to these Big
sense of security houshold names that HAVE BEEN this big pictures asset
class leadership just look at a chart of TOYS R US (TOY) with a 50day
ave and a 200 day ave loaded. Notice what happens when the stock went
below the 200 day moving ave? It tends to stay below it and trad off of
it doesnt it? Has anyone seen the "I've fallen and cant get up" doll?

Just calling it as I see it, use your own judgement,trade at your own
risks, strictly for informational purposes. Any comments email me
direct.

Harlan

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 09:21:06 -0400

Frank,

Thanks for sharing the post from AOL.  Excellent food for thought!  The
gyrations indeed make me uncomfortable - now even more so - see my related
post to Dean.  It is hard to step back into a market that has been down 18%
(!) in a 4 day span (!!) starting on 8/26.  Then it goes back up more than
10% in the next 5 days beginning 9/01.  That is the entire market!  If an
individual stock was acting like that, I doubt I would touch it.  For an
individual stock this is often the type of action you get before it breaks
down for good.  Now that this occurs to me, I am even happier to have
mostly stayed away from yesterday's rally (although I fully expect
continued upside today).  And as always, I expect to be WRONG.

Best regards,
Craig

BTW - Who was it that introduced the 80-20 success-failure ratio as an
O'Neil statement?  I never have heard that, but it does seem reasonable
(nothing works every time in the market).  Did someone hear him say it
personally or is it written down somewhere?


At 12:55 AM 9/9/98 -0400, you wrote:
>(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.)
>Frank
>---------------------------
>The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record
>gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked.  These are the
>times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO.


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Deepak Kapur <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 09:25:18 -0400 (EDT)

Craig,

>BTW - Who was it that introduced the 80-20 success-failure ratio as an
>O'Neil statement?  I never have heard that, but it does seem reasonable
>(nothing works every time in the market).  Did someone hear him say it
>personally or is it written down somewhere?

If my memory serves me right, it is in the two articles that WON
recently wrote for IBD on identifying market tops and bottoms. I will
try to dig further and report.

Regards,

Deepak

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 13:55:53 GMT

On Wed, 09 Sep 1998 00:55:21 -0400, you wrote:

:
:
:The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that =
record
:gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked.  These are the
:times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO.
:

=46rank,

"...imperative to go home flat every night..."

Huh? Whatcha talkin' about? Do you mean "on the sidelines"? ...sober?
...unhyped?

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Where did 80% success rate come from
Date: 09 Sep 1998 10:17:40 -0400

Craig,

>BTW - Who was it that introduced the 80-20 success-failure ratio as an
>O'Neil statement?  I never have heard that, but it does seem reasonable
>nothing works every time in the market).  Did someone hear him say it
>personally or is it written down somewhere?

I beleive in Aug 14 IBD investors corner O'neil stated this rate.

Peter


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followthrough
Date: 09 Sep 1998 10:28:29 -0400

A couple of people have already alluded to it, but comparing Tuesday's
volume with Friday's volume is very unreliable since it was the start of a
3 day weekend.  In my admittedly inexperienced opinion, this was another
contrary Tuesday, trying to sucker us back.  The realities of the global
meltdown won't change until the Fed actually changes the rate or Japan
institutes true reforms.  And even then the transition from bear to bull
isn't going to be instantaneous.  I'd also like to point out that we're in
September, not a month typically known for recoveries.

Joe Jungbluth



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Classic cup/w handle
Date: 09 Sep 1998 10:35:31 -0400

I was looking at the chart of the company for which I work, Orbital
Sciences Corp (NYSE: ORB).  On a daily chart, look at 12/31 and 4/15.
Those look like textbook inflection points to me.  I had sold some of my
company stock in mid-April on a gut feel, but I wish I had noticed the
exhaustion gap and gone short.  BTW, this stock probably wasn't a true
CANSLIM candidate due to EPS.

Waddaya think?

Joe Jungbluth

ps.  The company was listed on the NASDAQ before April as ORBI.



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 11:33:39 -0400

At 01:55 PM 9/9/98 GMT, you wrote:
>Frank,
>
>"...imperative to go home flat every night..."
>
>Huh? Whatcha talkin' about? Do you mean "on the sidelines"? ...sober?
>...unhyped?
>
>Dan
>[e-mail]
>

That was one of the lines that I intended to 'Edit' prior to sending, but
my bumbling with my Email sent it unedited!

Flat means, clear of any positions. Not short or long.
Or if so, then in the box. As many short as long.
A trading technique that is not Canslim, thereby the reason I was going to
edit it.

Besides, way outta my league here with those types of techniques.
I believe the intention is to take advantage of a breaking move by clearing
the opposing trade.

I.E. The stock breaks out to new highs. Cover your shorts quickly, keeping
your long position to take advantage of any follow through. Visa Versa, the
stock breaks to the down side. Sell your longs quickly and ride the short
you held for more shakeout of timid holders of the stock.

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD
Date: 09 Sep 1998 12:15:23 EDT

Canslim Group:

     This article from IBD this morning should prove useful-from this group's
perspective. To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow
doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors to use
caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull (Johan
take note).  And now here is the article:

      The stock market on Tuesday erased most of last week's losses as the Dow
scored its largest one-day point gain on record. The advance also produced a
''follow-through'' session, a key technical sign that a longer-term rally
could be under way.
     But cautionary signs abound. Most leading stocks - the top 5%-10% in
terms of 52-week price performance -still appear to be in the midst of their
corrections. And the number of stocks making new lows on the New York Stock
Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market dwarfed the level of new highs.
     I N V E S T O R ' S   C O R N E R

     Tuesday's gains followed Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks late
Friday that some took to indicate the nation's central bank might be prepared
to ease interest rates.
     The Dow Jones industrial average rose almost 5% on a 4% increase in
trading volume, confirming the 288-point rebound on Sept. 1. The Nasdaq
composite and S&P 500 index turned in their own follow-through days as well.
     A follow- through suggests that a new uptrend has staying power. It comes
in two parts. First, the market rallies off a low. Within four to 10 days of
the rebound, a major average such as the Dow makes a gain of 1% or more on an
increase in trading activity over the prior day.
     The signal hasn't missed the beginning of a major bull move in decades.
But it occasionally flags a rally that later fails. Such a failure occurred
recently. The Dow rebounded on Aug. 11 from an intraday low of 8316, closing
at 8462. On Aug. 18, the blue-chip index gained 139 points, or 1.6%, on an
increase in daily trade. The rally failed a few days later, sending the Dow to
a near-term low the following week.
     Indeed, a follow-through day does not mean investors can step into the
market and buy stocks indiscriminately. Most leading stocks are still
retracing the ground lost during the current downturn. Few have broken out to
new highs.
     Market professionals took Tuesday's action as a good sign, but many see
rough waters ahead in the near term.
     There's a dearth of undamaged leaders in today's market, notes Greg Kuhn,
president of Kamco Capital Management LLC, an Easton, Pa.-based money manager
and institutional advisory firm. Kuhn was among the early spotters of the July
20 market top, advising clients to pare down sharply on July 21 and warning of
a sharp decline in the averages on July 27.

     ''The market has got to go through a period of convalescence,'' Kuhn
said. ''It will need to take at least eight weeks of backing and filling. The
leaders still need to build bases. There are times where you have follow-
through days where you could start buying stocks right away. We don't have
that yet. You want to take your time here and let stocks come to you. Now you
should start looking for the next set of leaders.''

     Richard McCabe, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch, believes the
market remains in a ''cyclical bear within an ongoing secular, long-term bull
trend'' that should resume in early '99. He notes there was strong breadth
Tuesday in the number of rising vs. declining stocks.

     ''The good thing about today is the advance-decline ratio is about 4-
to-1,'' McCabe said. ''That's not historic or spectacular. But when I see a
rally of 3-to-1 or higher, it usually means the rally has some meaning. The
past rallies -Tuesday and Wednesday (last week) -had only 3-to-2 ratios.
Nothing great.

     ''Today's action says the market has broken this recent downtrend off the
July high. We should get some kind of recovery trend that might get to the
mid-8000s. At that point, I would be a seller because I think there will be
further downside tests as we get out into the later part of the year.''

     Peter Canelo, U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter,
sees the market heading to new highs next year, thanks to a strong economy
that many observers have underestimated. But the market still faces ample
economic and psychological hurdles that could mean choppy sailing in the
months ahead.

     ''The market was ready for a bottom,'' Canelo said. ''Every technical
indicator we follow - put/call ratio, ticks, option volatility, block
discounts - looked as oversold as October of last year, which proved to be a
bottom. On a valuation basis, the market went from 18% overvalued to 12%
undervalued as of Friday.''

     But while the current downtrend has allowed the market to chew down
prices, the correction still needs time, Canelo says. ''All the global factors
that worry the market are still there. Japan is still in denial. Russia is in
free fall. That translates into risks for Mexico and Latin America.''

     And of course, President Clinton has yet to face Independent Counsel
Kenneth Starr's report.

     ''Democrats are turning away from the president,'' Canelo said. ''They're
afraid they're going to lose seats in the House and Senate. So the president
has very little party structure supporting him. It certainly scares foreign
investors when they hear words like impeachment and resignation. So I think
the Clinton chronicles are a real issue.''

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Copyright (c)  1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved.
Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (09/09/98)
Market's Turnaround May Have Some Staying Power
By Loren Fleckenstein
09/08/98 20:30

                                             jans

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 20:26:02 +0200

>I.E. The stock breaks out to new highs. Cover your shorts quickly, keeping
>your long position to take advantage of any follow through. Visa Versa, the
>stock breaks to the down side. Sell your longs quickly and ride the short
>you held for more shakeout of timid holders of the stock.

I'd bet that it was a stock broker who invented this 'trading' technique.

LOL!



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD
Date: 09 Sep 1998 21:19:35 +0200

>To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow
>doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors to use
>caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull (Johan
>take note).

Jans,

Thank you for posting the Investor's corner article.

I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish.

Reason's to be careful/bearish:

- We remain in a downtrend. Connect the recent tops on a 3 months chart.

- We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, SP500).

- And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead
resistance. It would take A LOT of buying power to eat through that is a
resonable amount of time now.

- There are very few CANSLIM type stocks with pretty bases.

- It is highly unlikely that after a relatively quick (7 weeks)  and steep
(more than 20%) decline in the major indexes, we would go straight to new
highs, i.e. make a 'V' shaped bottom. A 'W' shaped bottom is much more likely.

- On average decliners are still beating advancers. The amount of new lows
also remains high.

- Psychologically we have had the steep decline punishment, but IMO we also
need the 'time factor' punishment. Some trow during a steep and fast
decline, others only give up after a certain amount of time. We have had
the first punishment, the other punishment is also 'needed' to clean out
the 'shack'. Of course one or more new lows or retests of those lows would
be even better.

Having said all of this, one MUST IMO stay flexible and be ready for the
unexpected. You take it one day at a time and you  focus on what is
happening right before your eyes.
As Harlan has quoted from the book 'Zen of Investing' (or something like
that): Believe what you see, not what you think (imaging).

Besides, the longer we go down or basically go nowhere, the more likely it
is that the ensueing uptrend will be very rewarding.

If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month bear
market. B^)





Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987
Date: 09 Sep 1998 15:47:24 -0400

Johan Van Houtven wrote:

> >I.E. The stock breaks out to new highs. Cover your shorts quickly, keeping
> >your long position to take advantage of any follow through. Visa Versa, the
> >stock breaks to the down side. Sell your longs quickly and ride the short
> >you held for more shakeout of timid holders of the stock.
>
> I'd bet that it was a stock broker who invented this 'trading' technique.
>
> LOL!
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.

For plays like this it might be safer to buy puts and calls.

I think that selling short is far more risky than buying a put...
It a Short position goes the wrong way the stock price could
jump 10 or 20 or 100 points pulling you further into the whole,
while a Put Option would just become worthless.. risk is limited
by what you payed (Selling short has limited profit - the price you
sold at and unlimited risk - the highest price a stock can be priced at)

IMHO - Buy a PUT it's cheaper and safer... (But not canslim-ish)


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD
Date: 09 Sep 1998 12:54:38 -0700 (PDT)

"I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish"

Johan,

We hadn't heard from your for awhile.  We just thought you were off
daytrading again.  :-).

Thanks for your insight.

TM





---Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> >To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow
> >doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors
to use
> >caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull
(Johan
> >take note).
>
> Jans,
>
> Thank you for posting the Investor's corner article.
>
> I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish.
>
> Reason's to be careful/bearish:
>
> - We remain in a downtrend. Connect the recent tops on a 3 months
chart.
>
> - We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ,
SP500).
>
> - And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead
> resistance. It would take A LOT of buying power to eat through that
is a
> resonable amount of time now.
>
> - There are very few CANSLIM type stocks with pretty bases.
>
> - It is highly unlikely that after a relatively quick (7 weeks)  and
steep
> (more than 20%) decline in the major indexes, we would go straight
to new
> highs, i.e. make a 'V' shaped bottom. A 'W' shaped bottom is much
more likely.
>
> - On average decliners are still beating advancers. The amount of
new lows
> also remains high.
>
> - Psychologically we have had the steep decline punishment, but IMO
we also
> need the 'time factor' punishment. Some trow during a steep and fast
> decline, others only give up after a certain amount of time. We have
had
> the first punishment, the other punishment is also 'needed' to clean
out
> the 'shack'. Of course one or more new lows or retests of those lows
would
> be even better.
>
> Having said all of this, one MUST IMO stay flexible and be ready for
the
> unexpected. You take it one day at a time and you  focus on what is
> happening right before your eyes.
> As Harlan has quoted from the book 'Zen of Investing' (or something
like
> that): Believe what you see, not what you think (imaging).
>
> Besides, the longer we go down or basically go nowhere, the more
likely it
> is that the ensueing uptrend will be very rewarding.
>
> If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month
bear
> market. B^)
>
>
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD
Date: 09 Sep 1998 13:04:07 -0700 (PDT)


Johan,
I'm doing my assignment.

"Connect the recent tops on a 3 months chart.
We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ,
SP500)"  Gotcha.

"And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead
resistance"  How do you know that, from the volume ?

"If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month
bear market"  That Could coincide with a big political change here
with the presidential election cycle coming up.  We would have a fresh
start all the way around.

Thanks,

TM


---Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> >To summarize, I believe it is cautioning us that: like a swallow
> >doesn't make a summer (a stock market phrase that tells investors
to use
> >caution); neither does a follow through day necessarily mean a bull
(Johan
> >take note).
>
> Jans,
>
> Thank you for posting the Investor's corner article.
>
> I hope I did not give anyone the impression that I'm bullish.
>
> Reason's to be careful/bearish:
>
> - We remain in a downtrend. Connect the recent tops on a 3 months
chart.
>
> - We are still under the 200DMA on the major indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ,
SP500).
>
> - And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead
> resistance. It would take A LOT of buying power to eat through that
is a
> resonable amount of time now.
>
> - There are very few CANSLIM type stocks with pretty bases.
>
> - It is highly unlikely that after a relatively quick (7 weeks)  and
steep
> (more than 20%) decline in the major indexes, we would go straight
to new
> highs, i.e. make a 'V' shaped bottom. A 'W' shaped bottom is much
more likely.
>
> - On average decliners are still beating advancers. The amount of
new lows
> also remains high.
>
> - Psychologically we have had the steep decline punishment, but IMO
we also
> need the 'time factor' punishment. Some trow during a steep and fast
> decline, others only give up after a certain amount of time. We have
had
> the first punishment, the other punishment is also 'needed' to clean
out
> the 'shack'. Of course one or more new lows or retests of those lows
would
> be even better.
>
> Having said all of this, one MUST IMO stay flexible and be ready for
the
> unexpected. You take it one day at a time and you  focus on what is
> happening right before your eyes.
> As Harlan has quoted from the book 'Zen of Investing' (or something
like
> that): Believe what you see, not what you think (imaging).
>
> Besides, the longer we go down or basically go nowhere, the more
likely it
> is that the ensueing uptrend will be very rewarding.
>
> If God would put the choice in my hands, I'd ask for a 9 to 22 month
bear
> market. B^)
>
>
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Johann
Date: 08 Sep 1998 16:32:400 -0500

Johann wrote:

"and even if we do have one today, we are still in a down trend. I expect
that Jeffrey will be quite delighted when he takes note of my
(still) bearish attitude. ;^)"

Not sure how good the "Johann Sentiment Indicator" (JSI, for short) will
prove to be, but I'm quite delighted, if you are.

BTW, what tells you we are in a downtrend "even if we have [a follow through
day] today", Johann?

JW





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Scott Vickery <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The new Bull Market is here!!!!!!    YA RIGHT!!!!!!
Date: 09 Sep 1998 17:18:56 -0400

I like your idea.

Where did the shorting conversation that was started a while back
continue?

Scott

Harlan wrote:

> Yes ladies and gentlemen its a brand new bull market with only one
> thing
> thats significantly different from the last one we just went through.
> Its in the opposite direction! Its all on the SHORT SIDE.
>
> The following are a list of names that have either topped or are in a
> correctional phase. After each name will be a little blurp about it.
> As
> for stops those technically oriented use either the moving average
> mentioned (50,200) as your guide, areas of overhead supply, or
> resistance levels. For the sake of this post and simplicity we'll use
> a
> straight 10% stop. Keep in mind this is just a sampling.
>




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Squires <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worth Reading
Date: 09 Sep 1998 18:30:09 -0400

Hi All,

I snipped this from the CBS Market watch page. The comments below are, IMO,
right on the money.

DCSquires

*********************************
To review, it was mentioned in this space July 30 that "...the market is
                 simply not ready for a sustainable intermediate-term
advance at
                 present. More of a corrective process is necessary before
the seeds can
                 be sown for the next legitimate ascent." (See July 30
Marder on the
                 Markets column).

                 From July 30 to Sept. 1's intraday low of 7,400.30, the
Dow proceeded
                 to stumble 1,626.65 points, or 18.0 percent. During this
period, the
                 Nasdaq Composite swooned 23.1 percent.

                 Then on Aug. 27 in this space it was stated that "the
market needs to once
                 again prove itself by following through on any initial
rally attempt. This
                 means ignoring the first few days of a bounceback and
focusing on the
                 market's action in the ensuing sessions." (See Aug. 27
Marder on the
                 Markets column).

                 The market's action of Tuesday Sept. 8 constituted a
follow-through day,
                 confirming Aug. 31 as an intermediate-term bottom on the
Dow.

                 The follow-through technique, developed by William O'Neil,
caught the
                 fifth day off the October 1990 bottom, the seventh day off
the July 1996
                 bottom, the seventh day off the April 1997 bottom, and the
fifth day off
                 the January 1998 bottom, among other market troughs.

                 Although nothing works all the time in the stock market,
the approximate
                 80 percent success rate of this indicator is to be noted.

                 The market's raft of worries, touched on in the prior
column, is another
                 plus. Since the market factors the future into current
prices, bottoms are
                 formed amid a climate of fear. It is to be remembered that
the bottoms of
                 October 1987, October 1990, April 1994, April 1997, and
October
                 1997 occurred amid heightened worry on the part of
investors.

                 That said, stocks will not have a cakewalk ahead of them.
In fact, the
                 ensuing advance promises to be more labored than those
following the
                 July 1996 and April 1997 lows.

                 The reason can be summed in one word: breadth.

                 When the Dow and S&P 500 indexes made intermediate peaks
in May
                 1996 and March 1997, the cumulative NYSE advance-decline
line
                 peaked simultaneously.

                 This time the story's different. The a-d line topped a
full 15 weeks before
                 peaks in the blue-chip averages.

                 The upshot is that the market's subsurface deterioration
is much worse
                 than at any other point since the bull move began in
October 1990.
                 Technically, this deterioration needs more time to repair
itself before a
                 strong move can be expected, Tuesday's gargantuan gains
                 notwithstanding.

                 Specifically, individual stocks need to back and fill for
a spell until
                 sideways basing patterns are formed. This, in turn, will
set the stage for a
                 healthier, more sustained advance.

                 Until then, the session low of Sept. 1 will prove the
bottom of the market's
                 summer selloff, which saw the Dow collapse 21.0 percent in
a scant six
                 weeks on an intraday basis.

                 The key point is that getting caught up in the fear of the
day normally
                 keeps the investor on the sidelines at precisely the time
that the market is
                 done factoring all of the bad news into current prices.
This is why it is
                 crucial to listen to the message of the market itself.

                 Given its forward-looking demeanor, the market's story
usually is the
                 more important one


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Chilling thought, indeed
Date: 09 Sep 1998 23:37:24 -0400

From Infobeat's daily comment tonight on the precious metals market:

The Bank of Japan announced overnight that it would try to guide
its overnight call rate lower in an effort to ease monetary
policy. Although the move had little direct impact on the precious
complex, if such a move is a harbinger for cuts elsewhere, gold
prices could benefit.
"If the move by Japan is part of a coordinated effort to ease
monetary policy, then it could be read as a (tolerance) for
inflation to sustain economic growth," said Dinsa Metha, managing
director of global commodities for Chase Manhattan.

One of the greatest strengths, indeed its backbone, of this "aging"
bull market has been the solid economic growth without inflation. With
stable pricing in everything from raw materials to finished goods,
with only the slightest of inflationary trends coming in labor costs,
a tolerance for inflation would, for me, spell the definitive end of
the bull, only the date of the funeral (and the subsequent barbeque, I
want the prime rib while I can afford it!!!) left unanswered.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Classic cup/w handle
Date: 09 Sep 1998 21:38:55 -0700

My mm likes ORBI and is out about 40% on it. I did a short CANSLIM analysis on
it for her and wasn't impressed. EPS is fair but ROE is low, D/E is high.
Insiders is low at 8%. (July numbers)

At 10:35 AM 9/9/98 -0400, you wrote:
>I was looking at the chart of the company for which I work, Orbital
>Sciences Corp (NYSE: ORB).  On a daily chart, look at 12/31 and 4/15.
>Those look like textbook inflection points to me.  I had sold some of my
>company stock in mid-April on a gut feel, but I wish I had noticed the
>exhaustion gap and gone short.  BTW, this stock probably wasn't a true
>CANSLIM candidate due to EPS.
>
>Waddaya think?
>
>Joe Jungbluth
>
>ps.  The company was listed on the NASDAQ before April as ORBI.
>

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "David S. Pinhasik" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts
Date: 10 Sep 1998 13:02:50 +0300

>TSFW breaking out on 2.9x  ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently
>
>METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues
9/8)
>
Johann, do you have the CANSLI breakdown for the above mentioned breakouts?


David


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Johann
Date: 10 Sep 1998 09:36:44 +0200


>Not sure how good the "Johann Sentiment Indicator" (JSI, for short) will
>prove to be, but I'm quite delighted, if you are.

:-)

Jeffry,

So you bought the futures you mentioned a while ago?

>BTW, what tells you we are in a downtrend "even if we have [a follow through
>day] today", Johann?

Basically? The charts of the main indexes. Technically is is very unlikely
that we are in a new upleg without any serious obstacles. In more detail?
See my reply re: the 9/9 IBD Investor's corner article.

BTW: Johan is written with one 'n'.




-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts
Date: 10 Sep 1998 16:12:19 +0200

At 01:02 PM 10/09/98 +0300, you wrote:
>>TSFW breaking out on 2.9x  ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently
>>
>>METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues
>9/8)
>>
>Johann, do you have the CANSLI breakdown for the above mentioned breakouts?

David,

I had them, but deleted them as I'm not interested in them currently and
can look at them @ DGO if I need to.

They were quite good when I looked at them.



-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] New Highs, New Lows
Date: 10 Sep 1998 09:31:05 -0500 (CDT)

Hello,

Does anyone have the new highs, new lows for NYSE
and NASDAQ for yesterday, September 9th?  Could
not find in IBD.

Many thanks,
Mary Keener


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts
Date: 10 Sep 1998 16:49:36 +0200

At 01:02 PM 10/09/98 +0300, you wrote:
>>TSFW breaking out on 2.9x  ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently
>>
>>METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues
>9/8)
>>
>Johann, do you have the CANSLI breakdown for the above mentioned breakouts?

David,

Just had a look again:

TSFW: 98 99 A GRS 84  same group as LGTO, NEON, USCS

METG:70 98 A GRS 87



-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs, New Lows
Date: 10 Sep 1998 16:58:45 +0200

Mary,

Here you go:

            New Highs     New Lows    Advances    Declines     Unchanged

NYSE             21          201              908        2144           451
AMEX             5            42              187         363             165
NASDAQ      12           330             1447        2801           832


At 09:31 AM 10/09/98 -0500, you wrote:
>Hello,
>
>Does anyone have the new highs, new lows for NYSE
>and NASDAQ for yesterday, September 9th?  Could
>not find in IBD.
>
>Many thanks,
>Mary Keener
>
>
>-
>
>

-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Highs, New Lows
Date: 10 Sep 1998 09:58:09 -0700 (PDT)



Next time you need this info, Mary, try this link >
http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u

If it doesn't work, just look for "Market Digest" on Yahoo.

--Db


_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re.IBD
Date: 10 Sep 1998 19:12:26 +0200


>"And around that point (near 200MA) we encounter massive overhead
>resistance"  How do you know that, from the volume ?

Indeed. A glance at the chart is worth a thousand words here.



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: maurabr <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro:  Frank Yuan
Date: 10 Sep 1998 15:56:25 -0700

Tired of missing out on investment opportunities?  Here's your chance to
participate in the next YAHOO!  To find out more, follow this link:
http://www.c-me.com/lobby/ipo/index.html


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings
Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:33:14 -0400

For those that wonder why too much of a good thing is bad, take a look
at SIVB today, here's a snapshot of the news:

RESEARCH SPOTLIGHTS: (All prices as of 1:05 p.m. ET)
** Bankers Trust Alex. Brown said it lowered its rating on shares of
SILICON VALLEY BANCSHARES (SIVB: 13-15/16, - 11-23/32) to a market
perform from a buy.

Per DGO, stock has only 6% management ownership, but 27% funds
ownership (wanna bet that last number dropped sharply today, and at
27% it wasn't all that high?). ADV is 105,200 and traded today a total
of 4,818,100 shares on a float of 19.2 mil shares. RS was already low,
like most banks whether or not they have Russian and/or LATAM
exposure. However EPS was a solid 89. Co has slight but growing
earnings, and a forecast for the year of +18%, along with a low PE
(trailing at 18). Yet loses nearly 50% for the day, and is now down
over 24 pts from its high as recently as early July. Fundamentals
don't count in this mkt right now, another reason for CANSLIMers to
stay away from the barbeque.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro:  Frank Yuan
Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:40:40 -0400

Pretty bizarre intro, Frank. Could we have more details on you rather
than an IPO??


Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>Tired of missing out on investment opportunities?  Here's your chance
to
>participate in the next YAHOO!  To find out more, follow this link:
>http://www.c-me.com/lobby/ipo/index.html
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Well (no pun intended) somebody has had a good week!
Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:13:33 -0400

Interesting week about to come to a close. The oil patch has done
reasonably well considering.!

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?symbol=$XOI.X&chart1=ma&period=120&time
=15m

Looks like the Internets may close out the week with a nice move also!

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=15m&chart=bar&chart1=bb
&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24iix.x

And the Banking sector could surprise a few before Fridays close!
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=120&time=15m&chart=bar&chart1=ma
&rsi=y&stochastics=y&symbol=%24BKX.X


Regards,
Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro:  Frank Yuan
Date: 10 Sep 1998 19:34:18 -0700

Tom, you crack me up! Do you thik that guy really wants to participate in this
list? Remember Mr. "Hooters"?

At 09:40 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Pretty bizarre intro, Frank. Could we have more details on you rather
>than an IPO??
>
>
>Tom W
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: maurabr <[e-mail]>
>To: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
>Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 6:52 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan
>
>
>>Tired of missing out on investment opportunities?  Here's your chance
>to
>>participate in the next YAHOO!  To find out more, follow this link:


Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings
Date: 10 Sep 1998 19:38:53 -0700 (PDT)


<<For those that wonder why too much of a good thing is bad, take a look
at SIVB today, here's a snapshot of the news:

RESEARCH SPOTLIGHTS: (All prices as of 1:05 p.m. ET)
** Bankers Trust Alex. Brown said it lowered its rating on shares of
SILICON VALLEY BANCSHARES (SIVB: 13-15/16, - 11-23/32) to a market
perform from a buy.

Per DGO, stock has only 6% management ownership, but 27% funds
ownership (wanna bet that last number dropped sharply today, and at
27% it wasn't all that high?). ADV is 105,200 and traded today a total
of 4,818,100 shares on a float of 19.2 mil shares. RS was already low,
like most banks whether or not they have Russian and/or LATAM
exposure. However EPS was a solid 89. Co has slight but growing
earnings, and a forecast for the year of +18%, along with a low PE
(trailing at 18). Yet loses nearly 50% for the day, and is now down
over 24 pts from its high as recently as early July. Fundamentals
don't count in this mkt right now, another reason for CANSLIMers to
stay away from the barbeque.

Tom W>>

I'm missing your point.  RS was low and earnings were "slight but
growing" with a forecast of only 18% (and a PE of 18).  So what
fundamentals don't count and why would this be considered a CS stock?

--Db


_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro:  Frank Yuan
Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:55:35 -0400

Just being my usual naive, trusting, believing, innocent self!

And, of course, tomorrow we are going to wake up and discover that
Clinton's affair was just a year long republican dream; oil has
doubled in price; inflation has gone to negative nrs; the communists
in Russia suddenly realize that capitalism is the ONLY way to go; a
new 25 year old Japanese prime minister has surprisingly been pushed
into power and vows aggressive reforms to restore the economic
prestige of his grandfather; the bond mkt has tanked as massive money
flow rushes back into equities; Brazil and Venezuela both suddenly
vote for statehood, and become the 51st and 52nd states of the USA
(with a skirmish likely on who is 51st); gold is discovered to be an
aphrodiastiac better than Viagra and soars in demand; the dollar
plunges while US exports suddenly skyrocket and analysts rush to raise
earnings estimates.

And in a frenzied reaction, the Dow Jones 30 Industrials jump a record
3000 points, breaking 10,000 for the first time and fulfilling all the
market commentators dreams and forecasts. Suddenly, we have a zillion
Elaine Gagarelli's, telling us how they knew it would happen and
forecasted it two weeks ago. Of course, advance/decline is once again
a 2:5 downside ratio, and all but the Dow 30 closes at a new low.

Hey, I can still fantasize, can't I??

At least I hit the delete button rather than clicking on his link to
another hyped IPO in a bearish mkt. Probably a bulletin board stock
anyway!

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>Tom, you crack me up! Do you thik that guy really wants to
participate in this
>list? Remember Mr. "Hooters"?
>
>At 09:40 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote:
>>Pretty bizarre intro, Frank. Could we have more details on you
rather
>>than an IPO??
>>
>>
>>Tom W
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: maurabr <[e-mail]>
>>To: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
>>Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 6:52 PM
>>Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan
>>
>>
>>>Tired of missing out on investment opportunities?  Here's your
chance
>>to
>>>participate in the next YAHOO!  To find out more, follow this link:
>
>
>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
>PFB Information
>mailto:[e-mail]
>WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Neil V. Himber)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro:  Frank Yuan
Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:00:35 -0400


On Thu, 10 Sep 1998 15:56:25 -0700 maurabr <[e-mail]>
writes:
>Tired of missing out on investment opportunities?  Here's your chance
>to
>participate in the next YAHOO!  To find out more, follow this link:
>http://www.c-me.com/lobby/ipo/index.html
>
>
>-
>
>

_____________________________________________________________________
You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail.
Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com
Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings
Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:09:57 -0400

db,

All the banks have tanked in the past month, even CCI has an RS of
only 33, so an RS of 58 which SIVB holds still after today's plunge
still looks pretty respectable, tho not CANSLIM. And with solid if
slow earnings growth, it still looks strong within its industry group,
and I think you were one of the members advocating group focus.
Looking at the chart at DGO, for those that value that source of data
direct from WON, suggests the stock held up quite well for the past
month compared to its industry sector.

In any correction, I expect cos with high PEs generated through high
expectations to suffer more than those with low PEs trading far more
on their fundamentals. To see a stock with a low PE drop nearly 50%
just because of a ratings cut appears like an overreaction to me,
exasperated perhaps by large holdings by funds.

Both WON and Ryan advocate owning stocks with strong management
ownership and less than 10% funds ownership. This stock was simply an
example of a profitable company, lacking the ongoing Asian, Russian
and LATAM exposure which has knocked down the intl banking sector, yet
still devastated by a brokerage house rating change. The "coincidence"
that it also had a minimal management ownership and a proportionately
large funds ownership shouldn't be missed, assuming you still follow
WON and Ryan's recommendations on management and funds ownership.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>
><<For those that wonder why too much of a good thing is bad, take a
look
>at SIVB today, here's a snapshot of the news:
>
>RESEARCH SPOTLIGHTS: (All prices as of 1:05 p.m. ET)
>** Bankers Trust Alex. Brown said it lowered its rating on shares of
>SILICON VALLEY BANCSHARES (SIVB: 13-15/16, - 11-23/32) to a market
>perform from a buy.
>
>Per DGO, stock has only 6% management ownership, but 27% funds
>ownership (wanna bet that last number dropped sharply today, and at
>27% it wasn't all that high?). ADV is 105,200 and traded today a
total
>of 4,818,100 shares on a float of 19.2 mil shares. RS was already
low,
>like most banks whether or not they have Russian and/or LATAM
>exposure. However EPS was a solid 89. Co has slight but growing
>earnings, and a forecast for the year of +18%, along with a low PE
>(trailing at 18). Yet loses nearly 50% for the day, and is now down
>over 24 pts from its high as recently as early July. Fundamentals
>don't count in this mkt right now, another reason for CANSLIMers to
>stay away from the barbeque.
>
>Tom W>>
>
>I'm missing your point.  RS was low and earnings were "slight but
>growing" with a forecast of only 18% (and a PE of 18).  So what
>fundamentals don't count and why would this be considered a CS stock?
>
>--Db
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Joe Scott" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro:  Frank Yuan
Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:09:50 -0500

Geez Tom,,,
Easy,,  give me a little time to cover a few shorts huh?

joe
[e-mail]
http://www.koyote.com/users/jo



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] You think we got problems??
Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:19:55 -0400

Talk about a meltdown, Brazil was down 6.7% in the first 20 minutes of
trading today, finished down over 15.8% for today alone. Several other
LATAM countries also continued their slide, notably Mexico (-5.8%) and
Venezuela (nearly -4.5%).

As I write, Japan is down another 3.8% (over 500 pts) and threatening
to once again close under 14,000. If this is a follow thru rally, it's
the strangest and most contradictory one I've ever seen.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dan Sutton <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of HGS files
Date: 10 Sep 1998 21:19:43 -0600

Sorry about the lack of an HGS file this week. I have suffered a
catastrophic computer crash and am trying to get things put back
together. I still can't access the Internet or my primary e-mail editor.
I can't get anything to reinstall...including Excel or Word. Hopefully I
can get things reconstructed by the weekend.

And the market is crashing around my ears!

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Well (no pun intended) somebody has had a good
Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:40:28 -0400

Frank,

Nice selection of charts.  Thank you for sharing them!

Best Regards,
Craig

At 10:13 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Interesting week about to come to a close. The oil patch has done
>reasonably well considering.!
>Looks like the Internets may close out the week with a nice move also!
>And the Banking sector could surprise a few before Fridays close!
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Well (no pun intended) somebody has had a good
Date: 10 Sep 1998 23:55:57 -0400

Your welcome! Glad you found it useful.
I found it tonight and it compliments my group focus.

In case you haven't discovered it yet, the site covers many other indexes,

http://www.iqc.com/lookup/index_often.htm

will display those the site has selected, but if you know the symbols,
others are available. I've created Netscape bookmarks for some of my
favorites, which places a 5min or 15min group chart, a single click away.

Regards,
Frank Wolynski

At 23:40 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Frank,
>
>Nice selection of charts.  Thank you for sharing them!
>
>Best Regards,
>Craig
>
>At 10:13 PM 9/10/98 -0400, you wrote:
>>Interesting week about to come to a close. The oil patch has done
>>reasonably well considering.!
>>Looks like the Internets may close out the week with a nice move also!
>>And the Banking sector could surprise a few before Fridays close!
>>
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Misc
Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:29:52 -0800

I hadn't been to the Nasdaq site for several months, dropped in
today and it has been changed quite a bit since my last visit, for
the better.  Good place to check out if you haven't been there for
awhile, or ever - www.nasdaq.com

On NBR a day or two ago the First Call guy was on and he talked
about earnings forecasts for the third quarter.  They have been
reduced by analysts from an expected gain of 10% to 1.5%.  He
wondered if analysts might be still too optimistic about the fourth
quarter.  Of course, this all has significant implications for the
stock market.  Stocks are valued on future earnings, and they were
at a very high level.  These reductions probably account for at least
some part of the recent decline.

Don't see any stocks I want to buy in the current envrionment, but
one I noticed has held up reasonably well is Express Scripts
(ESRX), might be good once things settle down.



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The danger of large mutual fund holdings
Date: 10 Sep 1998 22:07:28 -0700 (PDT)



<<To see a stock with a low PE drop nearly 50%
just because of a ratings cut appears like an overreaction to me,
exasperated perhaps by large holdings by funds.>>

Although it could just as easily have been exacerbated by daytraders
who rode the stock down.  27% is hardly an unusually large percentage
of fund ownership.

<<Both WON and Ryan advocate owning stocks with strong management
ownership and less than 10% funds ownership.>>

I don't know about Ryan, but O'N no longer cares about a low fund
ownership percentage.  In any case, I still don't see how slow
earnings growth qualifies it as CS.  It's not important, though.

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Rally in the futures amidst global collapse
Date: 11 Sep 1998 08:00:58 -0400

Quite interesting and educational to watch the futures this morning.
Right now Nasdaq up nearly 2% while S&P up almost 1%, Nasdaq in
particular trending up. Meanwhile the US dollar continues its collapse
amid political uncertainty and fears of the US economy finally
faltering.  Volatility has reached extremes, VIX near an all time
record high, while the US bond mkt benefited from the flight from the
stock mkt, once again closing at record levels.

An interesting side effect of all this is the collapse of the US
dollar against all major currencies. This could improve US exports,
thus helping shore up profits above analysts forecasts. Granted, it
also means imports become more expensive, thus inflationary, but also
could help at least put a bottom into some foreign economies despite
their failure to act regionally or locally.

Neither Asia nor Europe would suggest a positive opening for the US
mkts, will be interesting to see if the futures gives any better
picture, tho lately it has not been a very good indicator by itself.

Japan took a major hit last night, closing once again below 14,000.
Yet the yen seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the falling dollar.
No domestic confidence in their leadership, maybe? Certainly there are
fears of some major bankruptcies yet to happen, particularly in the
banking sector but also among the manufacturing sector as well.

Oils keep trying to recover, inventories now appear to be showing a
slow but consistent drop. Cooler weather in the north also seems to be
helping heating oil prices. If world economies start to recover, could
oils turn out to be the new leadership?? Only time will tell.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] 9/10
Date: 11 Sep 1998 05:09:24 -0700 (PDT)


235/1346/1345/1936/1739/46.6/37.3/15%
I'll save these and you can catch up later if needed.
TM



---Dan Sutton <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> Sorry about the lack of an HGS file this week. I have suffered a
> catastrophic computer crash and am trying to get things put back
> together. I still can't access the Internet or my primary e-mail
editor.
> I can't get anything to reinstall...including Excel or Word.
Hopefully I
> can get things reconstructed by the weekend.
>
> And the market is crashing around my ears!
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dan Sutton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 9/10
Date: 11 Sep 1998 06:27:26 -0600

TM wrote:
>
> 235/1346/1345/1936/1739/46.6/37.3/15%
> I'll save these and you can catch up later if needed.
> TM
>

I am able to get Excel to save the file (just can't copy the formulas
right now), so at least we are getting the database built.

Thanks

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of HGS files
Date: 11 Sep 1998 08:58:10 -0400

Dan Sutton wrote:

> Sorry about the lack of an HGS file this week. I have suffered a
> catastrophic computer crash and am trying to get things put back
> together. I still can't access the Internet or my primary e-mail editor.
> I can't get anything to reinstall...including Excel or Word. Hopefully I
> can get things reconstructed by the weekend.
>
> And the market is crashing around my ears!

Must be the USA Flu... My machine has been down for almost a week,
I finally
got everything loaded back on it... now to just reconfigure it... sigh...

(with the cost of disk drives it's really looking good to spend the extra)
($200 or so to get a second to do a full disk copy...)
(6GB disk about $200)


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Top10List WEReview 9/11
Date: 11 Sep 1998 06:12:29 -0700 (PDT)

SUNW    Computer Micro/Mini
SWWC    Utilities-water
VLGEA   Retail/super/mini
swy
fdlna
fdlnb
kr
UFS     Food canned
WCG     Insurance Broker
EWB
 Lowest EPS 85, RS 90, A/B
Last week's top 10 (IBD Weekend Review) was up 21%.  (nonweighted)
TM
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro:  Frank Yuan
Date: 11 Sep 1998 13:17:38 GMT

Tom,

Your answer to that "cracking up" bit really did make me laugh. Yes,
You can fantasize! Great stuff!

Dan

On Thu, 10 Sep 1998 22:55:35 -0400, you wrote:

:Just being my usual naive, trusting, believing, innocent self!
:
:And, of course, tomorrow we are going to wake up and discover that
:Clinton's affair was just a year long republican dream; oil has...


:Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Frank Yuan
:
:
:>Tom, you crack me up! Do you thik that guy really wants to
:participate in this
:>list?
:>
:>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
:>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
:>PFB Information
:>mailto:[e-mail]
:>WWW http://OreRockOn.com

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 11 Sep 1998 20:33:19 -0700 (PDT)


Part One

The outlook is much brighter this week.  Quite a few groups have begun
pulling themselves up off the bottom.  Of the groups I follow, 16 have
broken upward through their 17d MAs (everything is still below the 50d
except for Drug Stores, but this group is unduly affected by Long's).

The following broke above their 17d MAs today.  Some of them may have
broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below.  If so, the
count begins again when they reemerge to the upside.

Integrated Systems
Mainframes
SW Security
Biomed-Genetics
Generic Drugs
Hospitals
Medl/Dentl Svcs
Production/Pipeline
Drug Stores
Whlsle Fds

The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days:

Drilling
Field Services
Machinery/Equipment
Exploration & Production
US Integrated

Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days.

Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended

While the idea that the oils will lead anything has been a source of
great amusement for a few people, it's important not to get too
wrapped up in an individual scenario but rather to focus on the
charts.  Drillers are up 35% from their bottom a week ago.  Field
Services are up 30%.  Machinery & Equipment is up 40%.  These may not
be CS, but they beat the he** out of money market returns.  (At least
for the last couple of weeks.  They may collapse by Tuesday.)

While poring over various news items and trying to predict market
activity based on these events is a diverting activity, it should not
be taken too seriously, particularly by those new to the markets.  The
fact is that no one can predict with any degree of certainty what is
going to happen from one day to the next.  This has been shown clearly
to be the case, as one pundit or another bemoans the market activity
in Katmandu and the certain and imminent collapse of the U.S. markets
when they open just moments from now.  And, of course, by the end of
the day the Dow is up several hundred points.  (Technicians fall into
the same trap when they try to move from what is to what might be to
what will most likely be to what will be--can't be done.)

At the very least, one must be aware of and keep in mind the market's
discounting mechanism.  As those who've followed the markets for a
while know, this mechanism takes whatever information is available to
it at any given moment and factors it into the stock or market price
(whether the information is true or not is beside the point).  Thus,
Greenspan speaks and the markets rise as those who buy and sell factor
in the information that is provided (or that they think is
provided)--in this case, an easing.  One shouldn't be surprised if the
market rises no further in the event of such an easing because it has
already been "discounted".  Ditto with the devaluation of one currency
or another, the exposure of a scandal, the collapse of a government
somewhere, an earthquake.  It may take hours or only seconds, but once
this discounting has taken place, that's it, at least until the
information has been further digested or reevaluated (which it may not
be, depending on its perceived importance).

Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday, fall
by the same amount, or do nothing at all.  But it's not possible to
say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil
or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems
to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box or Wall
Street Week or some bulletin board or other, is a serious mistake.
O'N cautions investors to pay attention to daily market activity, not
to what anyone says about daily market activity, and to focus on the
charts, not to hopes or expectations or estimations or opinions or
hype of any kind.  The market may not pull itself out of this funk
before November, or maybe not until January.  But when it eventually
does so, it will do so without the help of the talking heads (or maybe
in spite of them), and the leaders will be determined not by
consensus, but by the demand which is reflected in their charts.
Anyone who wishes to spot these leaders would do well to rid himself
of whatever preconceptions he may have and begin following group
strength and determining which are the most powerful stocks in the
most rapidly accelerating groups.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :)

--Db


_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength
Date: 12 Sep 1998 07:01:56 -0400

> Part One
>
> The outlook is much brighter this week.  Quite a few groups have begun
> pulling themselves up off the bottom.  Of the groups I follow, 16 have
> broken upward through their 17d MAs (everything is still below the 50d
> except for Drug Stores, but this group is unduly affected by Long's).
>
> The following broke above their 17d MAs today.  Some of them may have
> broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below.  If so, the
> count begins again when they reemerge to the upside.
>
> Integrated Systems
> Mainframes
> SW Security
> Biomed-Genetics
> Generic Drugs
> Hospitals
> Medl/Dentl Svcs
> Production/Pipeline
> Drug Stores
> Whlsle Fds
>
> The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days:
>
> Drilling
> Field Services
> Machinery/Equipment
> Exploration & Production
> US Integrated
>
> Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days.
>

Thanks for this update, Db.  Group strength I appreciate, but could you
elaborate on the following comment and help me relate it to CANSLIM?  Is
it a Woodward concept, WON, a Db concept?
> The following broke above their 17d MAs today.  Some of them may have
> broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below.  If so, the
> count begins again when they reemerge to the upside.
>

What are you counting after a group chart moves above its 17d MA?

Appreciate your thoughts.

Jeffry

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Johan
Date: 12 Sep 1998 07:12:58 -0400

> Jeffry,
>
> So you bought the futures you mentioned a while ago?
>
> >BTW, what tells you we are in a downtrend "even if we have [a follow through
> >day] today", Johann?
>
> Basically? The charts of the main indexes. Technically is is very unlikely
> that we are in a new upleg without any serious obstacles. In more detail?
> See my reply re: the 9/9 IBD Investor's corner article.
>
> BTW: Johan is written with one 'n'.
>
>
>
>
> - -- Johan Van Houtven
>
>

Sorry for my misspelling, Johan.

On the futures, I didn't buy the recent signals because of a delay in
getting my account funded.  I am paper trading it off the recent
signals.  Currently, a 2 lot in the Dec. mini-value line on with about a
40% lead (need to factor the rollover from the Sept. K, but that's about
right) on the average of the entries, at this point.

Account is funded now, so I am hoping for another reversal signal to get
long, but would consider a short on a distribution day.  I'll update you
privately, if you wish.  Pop me a note.

On the "more detail" portion of your market comment, I missed your reply
re: 9/9 IBD article and at this point, I have yet to see the article
itself (recent move has totally confused the Postal Service).  Guess the
answers are there.

Regards.

Jeff

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:07:10 -0400

db,

Don't know nor care if your comments on oils were in part directed
towards me, but since I have made numerous comments on this sector in
the past six months or so, will add some further comments.

Some months ago, the oils groups were starting to look oversold and
potentially favorable. A number of members of this group, trying to
adhere to CANSLIM while still recognizing oversold/undervalued
opportunity, commented favorably on a nr of oil related cos. I
responded negatively. My comments were based on CANSLIM, technicals,
as well as my perception of the global situation. WON is not a
mechanic nor, to any heavy degree, a technician. While he incorporates
a lot of technical approach, he also uses fundies and "news" in
assessing "M". I try to do the same. We are in a global market whether
we like it or not, and despite a still successful US economy, we are
affected by the Asian flu, the Russian collapse, Zippergate, LATAM
economic collapses and devaluations, etc.

My comments on the oils groups over the past six months or so is based
primarily on supply and demand factors. With demand dropping, and
supply continuing or even rising, there was little chance that the
stocks could sustain a rally. Untill the supply and demand equation
turned positive (either by improved world economics enhancing demand
or by producers overcoming the loss of cash flow and cutting supply)
the overall "big picture" wasn't going to change enough to make it a
CANSLIM environment.  A similar picture can be drawn for the
semiconductors groups. Too much supply, with demand falling off.
INTC's news this week may be showing a change here as well.

Whether we like it or not, news does play a part in the market, and
thus should play a role in our assessment of "M". This is true whether
we are a day trader, short term "investor", or investing for the
intermediate or long term. The bottom line remains whether our entry
point is lower than the present value and/or exit point.  I never met
an investor happy that he finally owned a stock, only to have it
trading lower. Thus, correct entry remains paramount.

Because of their potential for "windfall" earnings, I think the oils
group has the possibility for becoming at least a short term, if not
intermediate term, leadership group. May not happen, and not sure now
is the right time to even consider opening any positions. But I do
think it is a good time to be watching them.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----



>Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended
>
>While the idea that the oils will lead anything has been a source of
>great amusement for a few people, it's important not to get too
>wrapped up in an individual scenario but rather to focus on the
>charts.  Drillers are up 35% from their bottom a week ago.  Field
>Services are up 30%.  Machinery & Equipment is up 40%.  These may not
>be CS, but they beat the he** out of money market returns.  (At least
>for the last couple of weeks.  They may collapse by Tuesday.)
>
>While poring over various news items and trying to predict market
>activity based on these events is a diverting activity, it should not
>be taken too seriously, particularly by those new to the markets.
The
>fact is that no one can predict with any degree of certainty what is
>going to happen from one day to the next.  This has been shown
clearly
>to be the case, as one pundit or another bemoans the market activity
>in Katmandu and the certain and imminent collapse of the U.S. markets
>when they open just moments from now.  And, of course, by the end of
>the day the Dow is up several hundred points.  (Technicians fall into
>the same trap when they try to move from what is to what might be to
>what will most likely be to what will be--can't be done.)
>
>At the very least, one must be aware of and keep in mind the market's
>discounting mechanism.  As those who've followed the markets for a
>while know, this mechanism takes whatever information is available to
>it at any given moment and factors it into the stock or market price
>(whether the information is true or not is beside the point).  Thus,
>Greenspan speaks and the markets rise as those who buy and sell
factor
>in the information that is provided (or that they think is
>provided)--in this case, an easing.  One shouldn't be surprised if
the
>market rises no further in the event of such an easing because it has
>already been "discounted".  Ditto with the devaluation of one
currency
>or another, the exposure of a scandal, the collapse of a government
>somewhere, an earthquake.  It may take hours or only seconds, but
once
>this discounting has taken place, that's it, at least until the
>information has been further digested or reevaluated (which it may
not
>be, depending on its perceived importance).
>
>Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday,
fall
>by the same amount, or do nothing at all.  But it's not possible to
>say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil
>or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems
>to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box or Wall
>Street Week or some bulletin board or other, is a serious mistake.
>O'N cautions investors to pay attention to daily market activity, not
>to what anyone says about daily market activity, and to focus on the
>charts, not to hopes or expectations or estimations or opinions or
>hype of any kind.  The market may not pull itself out of this funk
>before November, or maybe not until January.  But when it eventually
>does so, it will do so without the help of the talking heads (or
maybe
>in spite of them), and the leaders will be determined not by
>consensus, but by the demand which is reflected in their charts.
>Anyone who wishes to spot these leaders would do well to rid himself
>of whatever preconceptions he may have and begin following group
>strength and determining which are the most powerful stocks in the
>most rapidly accelerating groups.
>
>We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :)
>
>--Db
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Slim Pickings
Date: 12 Sep 1998 09:00:12 -0400

From DGO's list of stocks in the books that hit new highs last week,
only 38 candidates. Lowest nr yet.

Of those, ones that have at least met the 80/80 test:

MNMD, SERO, LGTO, TSFW (that one seems to keep popping up on watch
lists!), SUT, BEI, JKHY, UFS, AGN, and MDU.

Haven't looked at the charts yet, just a preliminary screen.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Robert Bomba <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:39:20 -0400

>>  But I do think it is a good time to be watching them. <<

I agree. The ones to watch are the ones with insider buying. A few off the
top of my head are ESV,MARY,DRQ & BJS. I use a weekly chart to follow them
verses a daily for my shorts. All four of these stocks have insider buying
& made IBD's % rise in volume on the upside at one time or another. I'm
waiting for the weekly to show me one higher low & one higher high then the
previous high/low. Then I'll start buying. I never buy at the bottom nor
sell at the top.

   Bob

I own none of them & have been short this market for a while :-) but
looking for some longs.

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance
Date: 12 Sep 1998 10:54:11 -0400

<bold><underline>1 Week Group Performance Tabulations:

</underline></bold>

Thanks DB for the group assessments/chart interpretations. Most excellent
post. Thanks also to Tom and Robert Bomba (where do you get the insider
info?).

Great follow through posts. I'd rate them a  1% with Adv Vol.  :-)



I extended the list to include the top 25. This to include some of the
other Oil groups which are continuing to follow through from last weeks
positive moves. They were overshadowed by some snap back moves in
severely oversold groups,(IE, Banks-Super, Airlines, Computer stuff).


The mechanics of the market are represented below!

Interpretations are left to you!


<bold><underline><bigger>Best 1 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank     Group                      Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>#
1    <fontfamily><param>Arial</param>Retail-Drug Stores        7.6            3            5

#  2     Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated         6.8          22          41

#  3    Computer-Local Networks    6.5          24          60

#  4    Computer Softwr-Security        6.4        181        173

#  5    Computer-Memory Devices    6.2          48          70

#  6    Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip        6.1        190        194

#  7    Banks-Super Regional        5.7        106        135

#  8    Computer-Mini/Micro        5.7             2             1

#  9    Medical-Biomed/Genetics        5.3           89           86

#10    Household-Audio/Video        5.3           49           62

#11    Retail-Major Disc Chains        5.2           39           38

#12    Oil&Gas-US Integrated        5.1         109         146

#13    Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund        5.0           27           29

#14    Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod        5.0        133         158

#15    Media-Cable Tv            4.9             1              2

#16    Computer-Mainframes        4.4           11            18

#17    Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prods        4.4           57            89

#18    Oil & Gas-Drilling            4.3         197          197

#19    Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated        4.3           97          143

#20    Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell        4.2           79            88

#21    Metal-Steel Pipe & Tube        4.0         185          184

#22    Transportation-Airline        3.8         170          162

#23    Computer-Services        3.8           32            26

#24    Retail-Apparel/Shoe        3.7           38            32

#25    Oil&Gas-Field Services        3.7         184          186

</fontfamily>

</color><bold><underline><bigger>Worst 1 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank    Group                       Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188    Media-Periodicals        -2.8        157        153

#189    Hsehold/Office Furniture    -2.9         73         73

#190    Food-Canned            -2.9        118        114

#191    Food-Diary Products        -3.0        141        169

#192    Bldg-Cement/Concrt/Ag    -3.5         51         22

#193    Machinery-Farm        -3.5        191        193

#194    Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds    -3.5        149         96

#195    Media-Radio/Tv        -3.6         23         25

#196    Transport-Air Freight    -4.3        196        189

#197    Real Estate Operations    -5.2         67         51


</color>FWIW,

Frank Wolynski




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength
Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:30:28 -0700 (PDT)




>>Group strength I appreciate, but could you
elaborate on the following comment and help me relate it to CANSLIM?  Is
it a Woodward concept, WON, a Db concept?
> The following broke above their 17d MAs today.  Some of them may have
> broken through earlier in the week then fallen back below.  If so, the
> count begins again when they reemerge to the upside.
>

What are you counting after a group chart moves above its 17d MA?>>

Anything beyond a 50d MA and a rectangular base or handle within 15%
of a new high has nothing to do with CANSLIM.  But as CS has become
more popular and the number of funds and daytraders have multiplied,
I've found the basic CS tools to be inadequate on their own, hence my
use of technical indicators based on moving averages and chart
patterns other than rectangular bases.  This is a purely personal
perception and not intended as a condemnation of CS.  Anyone who's
having luck with standard CS and the buy-the-breakout approach is to
be envied.

By "count" I don't mean to imply that there's anything mechanical
about this.  When a stock is trending (or a group of stocks which is
represented by a composite chart), a moving average can be an
important tool to alert the investor as to a potential breakout or
breakdown, or at least a change in the character of the price
movement.  Thus, if a stock is trending downward, say, and its descent
begins to slow, the angle of descent will either segue into a base or
reach zero.  Assuming that it segues into a base, it will then either
break a downtrend line or a moving average, depending on how short the
moving average is and how long the stock has been in a descent.  Some
stocks will then begin to turn upward into a U shape (I'm seeing a lot
of these).  Very short-term traders and daytraders will find the
breaking of these MAs important and useful.  Longer-term investors
will hope for a base because of what the base accomplishes.

If the stock does segue into a base, the MAs become less useful.  A
stock can drift through its 17d or 50d MA repeatedly while it's basing
(depending on how long the basing process takes; at some point even
the 150 or 200 may come into play).  Therefore, if a stock has broken
upward through the 17d (or 20d) and perhaps subsequently the 50d, one
wants to see it stay there.  This indicates not only real demand, but
a real change in direction.  If the stock falters and drops back below
whatever MA is being used, it can either be losing steam (it may have
broken through because of news or because of something having to do
with another stock in the group) or it can be seguing into a base.

Therefore, if one has a favorite group of stocks on a watchlist, some
of them have begun to show strength in terms of their relationships
with their moving averages and/or trendlines, and it seems to the
investor that it might be time to begin to accumulate them, he'd
expect these stocks to stay above whatever level is being used.  If
they don't, then one must look at the possibility of further decline
or just simple basing.  In either case, even accumulation may not be
appropriate as the basing process (if that's what it turns out to be)
can go on for months.

If the 17d is below the 50d and the 50d is below the 200, the stock
has to get through the 17 first.  I want to see it break through that
average and stay there for at least two days, perhaps longer if
there's any question of a short-covering "rally".  I also like to see
it closing at or near its highs for several days on the way up and
through (and there's always the volume to look at--and higher lows on
the way up are always a plus).  If it wants to rest there, that's
fine, but I don't want to see it fall back through whatever line.  If
it does, there may be a problem or it may be seguing into a base,
which means that I continue to keep my wallet in my pocket, at least
for the time being.

Woodward advises against buying any stock below its 200d unless you
know exactly what you're doing and have the discipline to get out at
the least hint of trouble.  O'N implies the same thing by encouraging
the investor to stick with stocks with RS above 80, though as the
number of stocks below their 200d increases, this can become a sticky
point to debate.  Both would say, I believe, that bottom-fishing is
appropriate only for cyclicals, commodity stocks, "mattress-stuffers",
and the like.  Woodward counsels, however, that one not even touch an
individual stock until the group chart has shown the same strength
that one would require of a stock.  In other words, if an investor
buys when the 17d breaks upward through the 50d, he'd wait to see this
strength in the group chart before taking a position in an individual
stock.  This is consistent with O'N's view of the importance of the
group in stock movement.  This may mean that the cautious investor may
have to let the first few stocks out of the gate move ahead without
him, but it also gives him assurance that there's something dependable
going on here.

My apologies for the length and for what may have been unnecessary
repetition.

--Db



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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance
Date: 12 Sep 1998 11:48:14 -0400

<bold><underline>4 Week Group Performance Tabulations:

</underline></bold>

<bold><underline><bigger>Best 4 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank    Group                      Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param># 1    Metal
Ores-Gold/Silver    6.9        132        166

# 2    Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated    4.1         22         41

# 3    Retail-Drug Stores        3.8          3          5

# 4    Utility-Electric Power    1.8          9         11

# 5    Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated    1.8         97        143

# 6    Oil&Gas-US Integrated    0.1        109        146

</color><color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param># 7    Oil & Gas-Drilling
-0.3        197        197

# 8    Medical-Drug/Diversified   -0.9          6          8

# 9    Utility-Water Supply          -1.7          4          4

#10    Utility-Gas Distribution  -1.8         44         63

</color><color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>

</color><bold><underline><bigger>Worst 4 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank    Group                       Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188    Media-Periodicals
-21.8        157        153

#189    Financial Services-Misc    -22.4         84         55

#190    Computer Softwr-Educ/Entr  -23.4        128        133

#191    Finance-Investment Mgmt    -23.5        105         48

#192    Retail-Mail Order&Direct   -24.7        159        139

#193    Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds    -25.6        149         96

#194    Banks-Money Center          -28.6        179        174

#195    Finance-Investment Bkrs    -28.8        107         98

#196    Retail-Discount&Variety    -28.8        145        102

#197    Computer Softwr-Internet   -43.9          5          3

</color>

FWIW,

Frank Wolynski





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 12 Sep 1998 08:51:17 -0700 (PDT)



<<Don't know nor care if your comments on oils were in part directed
towards me, but since I have made numerous comments on this sector in
the past six months or so, will add some further comments.>>

As a matter of fact, they weren't.  I don't recall any particular
derision on your part.

The point of my comments on oils had nothing to do with oils per se.
They may collapse next week and continue to base, though that would be
a big plus right there.  I said what I did because of the tendency of
so many to develop scenarios for themselves--whether based on their
own research or on the opinions of others--and then become wedded to
those scenarios.  Believing that, for example, semiconductors can't
possibly lead the next leg of the bull market, they completely ignore
all evidence to the contrary until it becomes obvious even to Newsweek
that semiconductors (or software or consumer nondurables or whatever)
are in fact leading the next leg of the bull market.  IMO, the best
advice O'N has ever given as part of CS is to learn how to interpret
the information he provides on IBD's indicators page.  Only then can
one hope to filter out all the noise one gets from TV, magazines,
e-mail groups, message boards, newsletters and to eventually become
one's own guru.

It's also worth keeping in mind that the market looks ahead.  To a
large extent, it couldn't care less what's going on today.  It's
trying to figure out what life will be like in six to nine months.
Therefore, in the case of the oils, the current oversupply may be a
non-issue.  Everybody knows about it and it's all been discounted.
Analysts who've been around for a while know how the pendulum swings
in this area, whether it be oil, beef, wheat, or bell peppers.  It's
not all that difficult to go from drowning in oversupply to suffering
critical shortages.  If the activity in certain stocks and groups
seems a mystery, it is often helpful to look ahead a couple of
quarters to see if any light dawns (if nothing else, the SQLY
comparisons starting next year for many, many stocks may be pretty
spectacular, if for no other reason than that earnings this year
sucked so badly).

--Db





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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 12 Sep 1998 12:04:31 EDT

Nice post db

Surindra

In a message dated 9/11/98 11:53:35 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail] writes:

<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< snipped a lot >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 Part Two - NonCANSLIM - Do Not Read If Easily Offended

 While the idea that the oils will lead anything


 And, of course, by the end of
 the day the Dow is up several hundred points.

 Therefore, the markets may rise several hundred points on Monday, fall
 by the same amount, or do nothing at all.  But it's not possible to
 say in advance what they will do regardless of what happens in Brazil
 or Washington D.C., and to pay too much attention to anyone who seems
 to have superior wisdom, whether he or she be on Squawk Box
 We now return you to your regularly scheduled program :)

 --Db >>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production
Date: 12 Sep 1998 13:10:19 -0400

U.S. August Crude Oil Production Lowest Since 1954-EIA

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Crude oil production in the United States averaged
just 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the lowest level for that
month since 1954, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's preliminary
estimates showed. Low oil prices have made it too expensive in many parts
of the U.S. to continue drilling, while it's cheaper to buy crude from
foreign suppliers.

That trend was in evidence last month, when U.S. imports of crude averaged
9.3 million bpd -- up 700,000 bpd from last year's record high for the
month. The price of crude oil futures trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange has slid 37 percent since Oct. 3, 1997, when the front-month
contract traded at $22.76 a barrel. On Friday, the October crude oil
contract settled at $14.34.

Complete story at:
http://my.excite.com/news/r/980912/07/business-oil

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Robert Gammon" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 12 Sep 1998 11:35:09 -0500

Tom Worley wrote (in part)


My comments on the oils groups over the past six months or so is based
primarily on supply and demand factors. With demand dropping, and
supply continuing or even rising, there was little chance that the
stocks could sustain a rally. Untill the supply and demand equation
turned positive (either by improved world economics enhancing demand
or by producers overcoming the loss of cash flow and cutting supply)
the overall "big picture" wasn't going to change enough to make it a
CANSLIM environment.  A similar picture can be drawn for the
semiconductors groups. Too much supply, with demand falling off.
INTC's news this week may be showing a change here as well.


I may be reading too much into this, BUT it does us well to remember
that the semiconductor chip (as opposed to semiconductor equipment)
market is more than just DRAMs and Intel CPUs.  In DRAMs we do have
an excess of supply.  Other types of chips are not so strongly affected
by the national pride that seems to get wound around DRAM production.
Chips made by Texas Instruments, Motorola, Analog Devices, Lucent,
and others get buried within the tele and data communications infrastucture,
medical equipment, autos, process control equipment, scanners, cash registers,
etc. that have little correlation with the sales of PCs.

Robert




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part one - Group Strength: Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 12 Sep 1998 10:28:18 -0700 (PDT)




<<I may be reading too much into this, BUT it does us well to remember
that the semiconductor chip (as opposed to semiconductor equipment)
market is more than just DRAMs and Intel CPUs.  In DRAMs we do have
an excess of supply.  Other types of chips are not so strongly affected
by the national pride that seems to get wound around DRAM production.
Chips made by Texas Instruments, Motorola, Analog Devices, Lucent,
and others get buried within the tele and data communications
infrastucture,
medical equipment, autos, process control equipment, scanners, cash
registers, etc. that have little correlation with the sales of PCs.

Robert>>

Good point, Robert.  This reportedly is one reason why VTSS has done
so much better than its group, i.e., its tie-in with telecommunications.

--Db


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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Crude Oil Production
Date: 12 Sep 1998 16:50:04 EDT

Thanks Frank. Some more info at:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980911/bla.html

In a message dated 9/12/98 1:11:43 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail] writes:

<< U.S. August Crude Oil Production Lowest Since 1954-EIA

 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Crude oil production in the United States averaged
 just 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the lowest level for that
 month since 1954, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's preliminary
 estimates showed. Low oil prices have made it too expensive in many parts
 of the U.S. to continue drilling, while it's cheaper to buy crude from
 foreign suppliers.

 That trend was in evidence last month, when U.S. imports of crude averaged
 9.3 million bpd -- up 700,000 bpd from last year's record high for the
 month. The price of crude oil futures trading on the New York Mercantile
 Exchange has slid 37 percent since Oct. 3, 1997, when the front-month
 contract traded at $22.76 a barrel. On Friday, the October crude oil
 contract settled at $14.34.

 Complete story at:
 http://my.excite.com/news/r/980912/07/business-oil

 Frank Wolynski >>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 13 Sep 1998 20:43:03 +0200

DB,

Thanks for a nice post.

I looked at the groups you mentioned this weekend. Also looked at all other
groups.

Here are some comments. Mostly just the stocks that had interesting charts.

If you notice that I left important ones out, I'd be grateful if you would
point them out.

>Integrated Systems

JKHY
ORCL beat est. past week

>Mainframes

Is this a DGO group? SUNW (workstations)

>SW Security
>Biomed-Genetics

BGEN, AMGN, HEB (hype).

>Generic Drugs

ALO

>Hospitals
>Medl/Dentl Svcs
>Production/Pipeline

Don't know this group.

>Drug Stores

LDG, DRD

>Whlsle Fds


>The following have stayed above their 17d MAs for two days:
>
>Drilling
>Field Services
>Machinery/Equipment
>Exploration & Production
>US Integrated

5 groups above: Some stocks already 50% up or more. Makes me sick! ;^)

But all still in downtrends, so might be counter-trend rally. Must all be
watched closely though.

>Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days.

What do you get if you delete AMP & BEI from the group?



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "S Menon" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Peter Lynch
Date: 13 Sep 1998 13:58:33 PDT

Thought some of you might be interested...

http://www.kentuckyconnect.com/heraldleader/news/091398/b1facts.shtml



______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 13 Sep 1998 18:29:48 -0400

Tom, you wrote:


> While he incorporates a lot of technical approach, he also uses fundies and "news" in
> assessing "M". I try to do the same.


I recently noticed WON commenting on "news" in attempting to "context"
the potential for a failed follow through day in early August.  First
I'd heard him mention such "noise", with the exception of the monumental
events that turned markets past.  In a recent IBD article, he stated
that the follow through days were suspect because the were precipitated
by "news".  This particularly hit home with me because I have not, for a
year or more, bought a stock that has broken out on "news".  Don't trust
that type of breakout anymore after having been burned on "news"
generated moves in the past.  And now, my "M" interpretation will
endeavor to "context" a follow through day as suggested by WON's recent
IBD article.  But that will be the limit of my willingness to let "news"
affect the way I trade.

Now, I know you use "news" in assessing "M", but yours is an everday,
almost minute by minute approach.  Fair? Or are you suggesting that your
efforts at assessing "M" or more along the "event" driven, turning point
variety seemingly viewed in hindsight by WON (with the exception of
"contexting" a follow through day).  And if you believe WON assesses "M"
using "news" on a minute by minute, or day by day approach, please share
with us the source of your comment quoted above.

Perhaps those members who attended this weekends WON seminar could let
us know whether Mr. O'Neill mentioned the "news" in any way shape or
form.

Thanks in advance, Tom.

Jw

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 14 Sep 1998 05:57:06 -0400

Jeffry,

I suspect that I have a much stronger "economics" bent than does WON.
Certainly I remain more concerned with day to day events, such as
economics reports being released, than does WON. This stems in large
part from my background as a broker. When I had several hundred
clients, I was dealing every day with buy, sell and hold decisions.
Not a day went by without at least a few clients asking these
questions on a particular stock. In many cases, the client was going
to buy or sell, was just a question of whether it would be that
morning or afternoon or the next day or so. Thus, it was not
sufficient for me to simply be in touch with the overall "M", I also
had to be aware of news and other influences that could change the
price of a single stock on a very short term basis.

I also try to assess whether a favorable investing environment can
continue, or an unfavorable one is nearing an end, which may be
triggered by a "news event". I don't make investing decisions on this,
just try to have the knowledge in my head. For example, right now all
that has been sustaining the US mkts is domestic consumer spending,
which has been exceeding comsumer income growth for some time until
last month. Thus, spending was either being done on credit or using
other funds, such as profits from the mkt. And consumer willingness to
spend had a lot to do with their confidence in continued growth in the
mkt. Confidence fell last month, as did spending. One month does not
establish a trend, but is a red flag for me. I suspect consumer
confidence will remain weak, in part because of Zippergate along with
all the other global economic reasons. So the consumer income and
spending reports takes on added significance for me. I view these the
same way as I would a company's qtrly sales dropping.

On the other hand, to the degree that any news, be it on a single
stock, an industry group, or the market at large, will be evenually
factored in, then even WON is considering the effects of news when he
"looks back" from a technical standpoint.

On individual stocks, the only news driven "breakout" that I will
trust is where a company initiates (or greatly increases) its
dividend. I have found this to be a reliable "insider" indication of
future profit growth and has worked well for me when the chart has a
good base. For short term trading, an announcement of a stock split on
a strong company also usually works for a few days if "M" is also
favorable.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>Tom, you wrote:
>
>
>> While he incorporates a lot of technical approach, he also uses
fundies and "news" in
>> assessing "M". I try to do the same.
>
>
>I recently noticed WON commenting on "news" in attempting to
"context"
>the potential for a failed follow through day in early August.  First
>I'd heard him mention such "noise", with the exception of the
monumental
>events that turned markets past.  In a recent IBD article, he stated
>that the follow through days were suspect because the were
precipitated
>by "news".  This particularly hit home with me because I have not,
for a
>year or more, bought a stock that has broken out on "news".  Don't
trust
>that type of breakout anymore after having been burned on "news"
>generated moves in the past.  And now, my "M" interpretation will
>endeavor to "context" a follow through day as suggested by WON's
recent
>IBD article.  But that will be the limit of my willingness to let
"news"
>affect the way I trade.
>
>Now, I know you use "news" in assessing "M", but yours is an everday,
>almost minute by minute approach.  Fair? Or are you suggesting that
your
>efforts at assessing "M" or more along the "event" driven, turning
point
>variety seemingly viewed in hindsight by WON (with the exception of
>"contexting" a follow through day).  And if you believe WON assesses
"M"
>using "news" on a minute by minute, or day by day approach, please
share
>with us the source of your comment quoted above.
>
>Perhaps those members who attended this weekends WON seminar could
let
>us know whether Mr. O'Neill mentioned the "news" in any way shape or
>form.
>
>Thanks in advance, Tom.
>
>Jw
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: [CANSLIM] Where can I get Beta on stocks?
Date: 14 Sep 1998 13:39:13 GMT

When I had DGO beta, I had access to "alpha" and "beta" for stocks.
Where can I get this online (for free?). TIA

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 14 Sep 1998 07:01:13 -0700 (PDT)

<<>Mainframes

Is this a DGO group? SUNW (workstations)>>

I don't know about DGO.  It's a very small IBD group, dominated by IBM.

<<>Hospitals
>Medl/Dentl Svcs
>Production/Pipeline

Don't know this group.>>

If you're referring to the last, it's under Oil&Gas.

<<>Electrical Connectors has remained above its 17d for four days.

What do you get if you delete AMP & BEI from the group?>>

If these two are deleted, the group has been above its 17d for only
one day.

--Db









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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 14 Sep 1998 09:57:52 -0700 (PDT)


<<If you notice that I left important ones out, I'd be grateful if you
would
point them out.

>Integrated Systems

JKHY
ORCL beat est. past week>>

PMS might be worth watching.


<<>Biomed-Genetics

BGEN, AMGN, HEB (hype).>>

GNE is a possibility.


These are the only two I'd add.  Everything else is far too wide and
loose for my taste.

As far as the O&G stocks go, a number of them have broken out of their
downtrend channels, but not necessarily to the upside.  The most
attractive, IMO, in terms of chart pattern and the indicators I use is
ESV.  There may be more in a day or so.  As far as deciding whether a
stock is getting ready to base or not, I'm going mostly by volume.  I
figure if it's there, the short-term trend is up.  Only a few of these
are showing a pattern of clear-cut strong upside volume.

--Db






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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 14 Sep 1998 19:09:03 +0200

Thanks, DB.

Glad to see I didn't miss many.

>PMS might be worth watching.

We I came across that one, I thought "80% chance that DB is approaching
this one with his Stoch/MACD method." :)
>As far as the O&G stocks go, a number of them have broken out of their
>downtrend channels, but not necessarily to the upside.  The most
>attractive, IMO, in terms of chart pattern and the indicators I use is
>ESV.

Funny, nr. one on my watch list. But I didn't pull the buy trigger yet...
not so funny. :)


To all:

Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site.




Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Deepak Kapur <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT)

Johan,

>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site.

Would you care to post.

Thanks,

Deepak

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 14 Sep 1998 19:48:02 +0200


>>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site.
>
>Would you care to post.

Here you go:

http://nt-chat0.telescan.com:8080/gotomenu



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anindo Majumdar <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI
Date: 14 Sep 1998 18:33:14 -0700 (PDT)

 AVEI looks like it broke out today. What do you folks think ?
>
>
> >>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat site.
> >
> >Would you care to post.
>
> Here you go:
>
> http://nt-chat0.telescan.com:8080/gotomenu
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Scan Optics (SOCR)
Date: 14 Sep 1998 21:48:51 -0400

Members,

Anyone who stills owns Scan Optics please contact me privately at
[e-mail]

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dave Cameron <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI
Date: 14 Sep 1998 21:00:59 -0500

Anindo Majumdar wrote:
>
>  AVEI looks like it broke out today. What do you folks think ?

Not really.... it hasn't based - looks more like a roller coaster.
I believe a stock needs to base a little to constitute a
'break out'.   But... I could be wrong.

Dave Cameron

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dave Cameron <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Scan Optics (SOCR)
Date: 14 Sep 1998 21:01:51 -0500

Don't own SOCR - but OUCH!   Were you still hanging on?

Dave Cameron

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dave Cameron <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 14 Sep 1998 22:59:03 -0500

Jeffry, old man,

With all the comments this message generated, I can hardly WAIT to see
Part Two.   How many parts are there?   Is this a mini-series?

I think you have a great point on not buying on news.   My success
rate is close to zero in these instances; at least for individual
stocks.

Just my 1.7 cents (down from 2 cents - like most of my holdings)

Dave Cameron

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Joe Scott" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI
Date: 14 Sep 1998 20:58:48 -0500

no volume,, only 1,961K
average is 1.729K
just up on a good day.. looks to me anyway,

joe



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 15 Sep 1998 05:10:15 GMT

On Mon, 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT), you wrote:

:Johan,
:
:>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat =
site.
:
:Would you care to post.
:
:Thanks,
:
:Deepak

I've been having difficulties finding these comments. Any hints? I am
registered at the site, but the interface is baffling, what with the
myriads of threads, and I cannot find the one alluded to above.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites
Date: 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800

If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list
of the top 50, according to someone.




http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html






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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites
Date: 15 Sep 1998 13:44:40 GMT

On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800, you wrote:

:If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list=20
:of the top 50, according to someone.
:
:
:
:
:http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html

Cool. Maybe I can find beta at one of these.

Dan

"Enough, or too much." -- Wm Blake


[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites
Date: 15 Sep 1998 13:49:11 GMT

On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800, you wrote:

:If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list=20
:of the top 50, according to someone.
:
:
:
:
:http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html
:

Well, here's the list! I'm posting this because the majority of these
are not linked at the website. However, when I get my own submission
to this list, they will all be hyperlinked! Enjoy!

Dan

            As chosen by our Survey submissions.*

     * all linkable web addresses have reciprocal link. Listed
Alphabetically.      =20
      =20
              http://www.agedwards.com/=20
              http://www.bigcharts.com/=20
              http://www.bloomberg.com/=20
              http://www.briefing.com/=20
              http://cbs.marketwatch.com/=20
              http://www.cnbc.com/=20
              http://www.cnnfn.com/=20
              http://www.dailystocks.com/=20
              http://www.datek.com/=20
              http://www.daytraders.com/=20
              http://www.dbc.com/=20
              http://www.discoverbrokerage.com/=20
              http://www.dljdirect.com/=20
              http://www.doh.com/=20
              http://www.etrade.com/=20
              http://www.fidelity.com/=20
              http://www.flash.net/~hesler=20
              http://www.fool.com/=20
              http://www.hoovers.com/=20
              http://www.iionline.com/=20
              http://www.investools.com/=20
              http://investor.msn.com/=20
              http://www.investorama.com/=20
              http://www.investorguide.com/=20
              http://www.lowrisk.com/=20
              http://www.marketguide.com/=20
              http://www.merrill-lynch.com/=20
              http://www.moneynet.com/=20
              http://www.morningstar.net/=20
              http://www.nasdaq.com/=20
              http://www.prars.com/=20
              http://www.qfn.com/=20
              http://www.quote.com/=20
              http://www.researchmag.com/=20
              http://www.schwab.com/=20
              http://www.smartmoney.com/=20
              http://www.stockmaster.com/=20
              http://www.stockresearch.com/=20
              http://www.stocksite.com/=20
              http://www.stocksmart.com/=20
              http://www.stockwiz.com/=20
              http://www.taylortrader.com/=20
              http://www.techstocks.com/=20
              http://www.thestreet.com/=20
              http://www.vectorvest.com/=20
              http://www.wadecook.com/=20
              http://www.wallstreetcity.com/=20
              http://www.waterhouse.com/=20
              http://www.wsrn.com/=20
              http://www.zacks.com=20

              Other Nominated Sites... =20
              http://www.aaii.com/=20
              http://www.ameritrade.com/=20
              http://www.amex.com/=20
              http://www.better-investing.org/=20
              http://www.bulltrade.com/=20
              http://www.businessweek.com/=20
              http://www.cboe.com/=20
              http://www.cbs.com/=20
              http://www.chicagostockex.com/=20
              http://www.dailyrocket.com/=20
              http://www.edgar-online.com/=20
              http://www.equis.com/=20
              http://www.financialweb.com/=20
              http://www1.firstcall.com/=20
              http://www.forbes.com/=20
              http://www.fortune.com/=20
              http://www.freeedgar.com/=20
              http://www.futuresuperstock.com/=20
              http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/=20
              http://www.hh-club.com/=20
              http://www.investorlinks.com/=20
              http://www.ipocentral.com/=20
              http://www.iqc.com/=20
              http://www.jackm.com/=20
              http://www.marketplayer.com/=20
              http://members.aol.com/baccom=20
              http://www.money.com/=20
              http://www.msnbc.com/=20
              http://www.napeague.com/=20
              http://www.natcorp.com/ir/finance.html=20
              http://www.netpicks.com/=20
              http://www.netquo.com/=20
              http://www.netstockdirect.com/=20
              http://www.nyse.com/=20
              http://www.pcquote.com/=20
              http://www.pitbull.com/=20
              http://www.pointcast.com/=20
              http://www.pristine.com/=20
              http://www.prodigy.com/=20
              http://www.puls.net/=20
              http://www.ragingbull.com/=20
              http://www.russreports.com/=20
              http://www.stockfever.com/=20
              http://www.stockpicks.com/=20
              http://www.stockscreener.com/=20
              http://www.stockselector.com/=20
              http://www.stocktools.com/=20
              http://www.street.com/=20
              http://www.suretrade.com/=20
              http://www.thewebinvestor.com/=20
              http://www.tradepbs.com/=20
              http://www.trendtrader.com/=20
              http://www.valueline.com/=20
              http://www.worth.com/=20










[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites
Date: 15 Sep 1998 10:31:20 -0400

Dan-

You should be able to find beta under Fundamentals at the WSRN.COM site and
probably at other sites that list fundamentals such as Yahoo!.

Joe

[e-mail]




[e-mail] (Dan Musicant) on 09/15/98 09:44:40 AM

Please respond to [e-mail]



 To:      [e-mail]

 cc:      (bcc: Joe Jungbluth/OrbMD)



 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Top 50 Financial Sites







On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 05:55:44 -0800, you wrote:

:If you guys don't already have enough sites to go to, here is a list
:of the top 50, according to someone.
:
:
:
:
:http://www.prars.com/web50/top50list.html

Cool. Maybe I can find beta at one of these.

Dan

"Enough, or too much." -- Wm Blake


[e-mail]

-





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 15 Sep 1998 09:08:28 +0200

At 05:10 AM 15-09-98 GMT, you wrote:
>On Mon, 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT), you wrote:
>
>:Johan,
>:
>:>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards chat
site.
>:
>:Would you care to post.
>:
>:Thanks,
>:
>:Deepak
>
>I've been having difficulties finding these comments. Any hints? I am
>registered at the site, but the interface is baffling, what with the
>myriads of threads, and I cannot find the one alluded to above.
>
>Dan
>[e-mail]


Dan,

The are among the most recent posts. The subject title is WON's
follow-through method (or something like that).



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
Date: 15 Sep 1998 15:09:02 GMT

On Tue, 15 Sep 1998 09:08:28 +0200, you wrote:

:At 05:10 AM 15-09-98 GMT, you wrote:
:>On Mon, 14 Sep 1998 13:17:06 -0400 (EDT), you wrote:
:>
:>:Johan,
:>:
:>:>Interesting comments re:WON's follow-through day at Ian woodwards =
chat
:site.
:>:
:>:Would you care to post.
:>:
:>:Thanks,
:>:
:>:Deepak
:>
:>I've been having difficulties finding these comments. Any hints? I am
:>registered at the site, but the interface is baffling, what with the
:>myriads of threads, and I cannot find the one alluded to above.
:>
:>Dan
:>[e-mail]
:
:
:Dan,
:
:The are among the most recent posts. The subject title is WON's
:follow-through method (or something like that).
:
:
:
:Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
:
:
I went to the site and it said I had 280 unread messages, and they
started 7/30/98 and couldn't seem to get the recent ones. Therefore, I
marked all messages as read, so when I next go I'll get new stuff (as
of last night).

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 16 Sep 1998 00:29:24 +1200

There is an excellent report on the US equity market located at

http://www.cme.com/market/equity/outlook3/stk998cme.html

Highligted below are my thoughts on some of the selected passages: There =
is
a lot of money currently sitting on the sidelines, that is waiting to go
back into equities once the market consolidates.  It is still evident tha=
t
that sector rotation is with  the defensive stocks.  If  the wild market
gyrations over the last couple of weeks slowly dissipated, then we could
start to see some of this money flow back into the market. If Latin Ameri=
ca
could go "under" soon, then I imagine all the world "bad news" is out!
Money that was being invested regularly by US investor's on a yearly or
monthly basis in emerging markets, could possibly be switched back into t=
he
USA market.  Perception that the USA is a safer place to invest.  I  woul=
d
not be investing in Latin America at the present time. When those countri=
es
are being forced to devalue their currencies and the  "double whammy"
affect of their stock markets sliding even further downward. The hedge fu=
nds
that are supposely resistant to "world fluctuations" have not stood up to
some of these tests. I aware of at least a dozen hedge funds, not just
losing money "big time" but ultimately going broke. The complexity or the
chaos of the market has not been formulated into some of their computer
programs.



Market Breadth

The market's advance earlier this year was characterized by a relatively
narrow surge in the largest of the large-cap stocks (i.e., Microsoft, Del=
l
Computer, Lucent Technologies, Schering-Plough) while the rest of the mar=
ket
lagged or even fell. For example, while the S&P 500 peaked in July, the
broader Russell 2000 crested in late April and was down 31.4% from that h=
igh
at the end of August at a 1-1/3 year low. The more recent correction in t=
he
S&P 500 and the Dow has only driven home what most investors already knew=
 =97
the broader market and thus many investors=92 portfolios, have been perfo=
rming
worse than the returns in the headline Dow and S&P 500 indexes would
indicate.
Breadth started faltering at the beginning of the correction in July and =
has
since worsened. The main measure of breadth, the advance/decline line,
peaked in the beginning of April and has since trended lower, indicating
that more issues on the NYSE are falling than are rising. The
advance/decline volume line made a high in July that coincided with the
market's peak and has since fallen, indicating that on balance, more volu=
me
is flowing into declining shares. The percentage of individual tocks abov=
e
their 200-day averages fell to a 7-year low of 19% in August where it was
down from 85% in October 1997. The S&P 500 also closed below its 200-day
moving average in August and stayed there for the first time in two years.

Mutual Fund Flows

Monthly stock mutual fund inflows got off to a slow start in 1998 and the=
n
accelerated to a 13-month peak of $26.5 billion in the month of April. Si=
nce
then, however, the pace of mutual fund inflows has been slowing. May saw =
a
total of $19.3 billion arrive in mutual fund coffers according to data fr=
om
the Investment Company Institute while June and July saw inflows of $19.2
and $16.5 billion, respectively. In August, capital inflows then collapse=
d
and generous estimates indicate that somewhere just above $1 billion flow=
ed
into mutual fund accounts, the lowest amount seen since January of 1991.
Individual investors apparently are sensitive to the ups and downs of the
stock market and the August data suggests that they can=92t be counted on=
 to
support a sagging market. Instead, money market mutual funds assets have
swollen to a record $1.26 trillion as investors seek safety.

Sentiment

The correction that is taking place in the stock market has taken a toll =
on
investor sentiment which has fallen sharply to fairly oversold levels.
Investment advisor sentiment, as measured by the Investors Intelligence
newsletter, recently fell to a 1-year low of 40.4% which was the fifth
consecutive weekly decline following six straight weekly increases. The
decline in investor sentiment could be a positive sign for bulls as it ha=
s
fallen fairly far below the 1-3/4 year high of 54.6% which was posted dur=
ing
the week of April 17. In fact, the previous three times that bullish
sentiment has fallen below 45% have been propitious times to own stocks.
Another measurement of sentiment, the 10-day average of the call/put volu=
me
ratio on the OEX options contract, has fallen over the past 1-1/2 months
after posting a 10-month high of 1.8 (i.e. there were 1.8 calls traded fo=
r
every put) on July 15. Most recently, the ratio fell to a 2-year low belo=
w
1.2 where it was in oversold territory. While these two indicators can=92=
t be
used individually to make buy/sell decisions, they are showing signs that
sentiment has reached oversold levels, a bullish indicator for stock pric=
es.

Small Cap Stocks

The small-capitalization stocks (companies with a market caps of $1 billi=
on
or less) have been underperforming their large-cap brethren for all of 19=
98
and on average are down sharply from their all-time highs. The Russell 20=
00,
an index of small-cap stocks with an average market cap of $400 million, =
is
down 22.7% for the year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 1.3% loss over =
the
same period. The small-cap stocks are in the midst of a 31.4% correction
that followed the posting of an all-time high in the Russell 2000 of 492.=
28
(April 22).
Not only have the small-caps been leading the rest of the stock market lo=
wer
over the past four months but they were also underperforming before the
correction got underway. While small-cap stocks outperformed the large-ca=
ps
through most of the 1980s and early 1990s, since 1993 the large-cap stock=
s
have taken over the leadership role. Since the start of 1995, the Russell
2000 has delivered an annualized gain of 10.6% (12.1% with dividends
reinvested in the index) compared to the S&P 500's annualized gain of 24.=
6%
(27% with dividends reinvested).

The small-capitalization stocks (companies with a market caps of $1 billi=
on
or less) have been underperforming their large-cap brethren for all of 19=
98
and on average are down sharply from their all-time highs. The Russell 20=
00,
an index of small-cap stocks with an average market cap of $400 million, =
is
down 22.7% for the year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 1.3% loss over =
the
same period. The small-cap stocks are in the midst of a 31.4% correction
that followed the posting of an all-time high in the Russell 2000 of 492.=
28
(April 22).
Not only have the small-caps been leading the rest of the stock market lo=
wer
over the past four months but they were also underperforming before the
correction got underway. While small-cap stocks outperformed the large-ca=
ps
through most of the 1980s and early 1990s, since 1993 the large-cap stock=
s
have taken over the leadership role. Since the start of 1995, the Russell
2000 has delivered an annualized gain of 10.6% (12.1% with dividends
reinvested in the index) compared to the S&P 500's annualized gain of 24.=
6%
(27% with dividends reinvested).

The sharp sell-off in the Russell 2000 would appear to go against
conventional wisdom. The Asian economic crisis should theoretically have
less of an impact on the earnings of small companies who make most of the=
ir
sales domestically. Along those same lines, the sustained strength in the
dollar should also have less impact on smaller companies compared to larg=
e
multi-national firms who derive a higher portion of their earnings in
depreciating foreign currencies. Despite those factors, the Russell 2000 =
has
continued to fall. The main reason that the small-caps are lagging may be
that the sector has simply fallen out of favor with individual investors.
Participation by small investors has been focussed on the largest of the =
big
stocks with S&P 500 index and other large-cap mutual funds seeing the
majority of fund inflows. Investors are also seeking the perceived safety=
 of
companies with proven earnings histories.

Global Performance

Morgan Stanley=92s index of emerging stock markets has fallen 41% in the =
last
six months and is now back to where it stood at the start of 1991. Almost
eight years of gains have been totally erased. Investors are reevaluating
the risk of investing in emerging markets given the possibility of contin=
ued
financial sector instability and the increased reluctance by the
industrialized nations to provide bailouts.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HGS Forum
Date: 15 Sep 1998 08:57:11 -0700 (PDT)



<<I went to the site and it said I had 280 unread messages, and they
started 7/30/98 and couldn't seem to get the recent ones. Therefore, I
marked all messages as read, so when I next go I'll get new stuff (as
of last night).

Dan
[e-mail]>>

I had to take the opportunity to replace that subject title.  It was
driving me crazy :)

If you've marked the messages as read, you can still go through them
manually.  Just select the HGS forum then click "Bottom".  Then select
"Follow Through Day Concept" from 9/8.  There will be around eight
posts.

--Db




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article
Date: 15 Sep 1998 13:09:03 -0400

Stocks and Commodities did an in depth article on the cup and handle that I
found interesting and very similar to WON's article in Monday's IBD(just in
case you missed it).  One point was that buying a c&h pattern before it
breaks out or with to little volume is very perilous and probably a good
shorting situation.

The other points I found interesting which are probably buried in WON's
book is that the top of the right side of the cup is lower than the left
side and that the pivot point is 1/8 a point above this with a breakout of
50% increase in volume.  Not a new high but up to 10% lower.

Peter

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] PGEX: trouble
Date: 15 Sep 1998 10:48:06 -0700

This one is on my watch list - have seen it bantered about here before. Watch
out below! Off almost 5 right now.

Herb on TheStreet: Is Pacific Gateway Playing a Shell Game with
Investors?

The company in question: Pacific Gateway (PGEX:Nasdaq), whose main
business is selling time on foreign long-distance networks to
telephone companies. The analyst: PaineWebber's Eric Strumingher,
who recently boosted his rating on Pacific Gateway to a buy from
hold, while at the same time cutting his estimates. Usually
analysts lower their rating when they cut estimates. But not
Strumingher, who justified the change by writing in a report that
he believes investors will "recognize the value in this investment
and  will move to EBITDA-based valuations from earnings-based
valuations."

For the entire story:
http://micro.sitespecific.com/Street/redirect.2q.cgi?banner=herbib.60.123



Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

mailto:[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dean Edwards
Subject: [CANSLIM] INVESTMENT ADVICE - NonCANSLIM
Date: 16 Sep 1998  8:42:13

"Mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself, but talent instantly recognises
genius."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

William O'Neil has been quoted as saying, that he has read hundreds of books on
investing. From his own personal library collection, he believes not many of
them are very good. However, he ranks Bernard Baruch's autobiography as one of
his top ten for investment books. Here is an article below that highlights
some  of his thoughts.

IMMORTAL INVESTMENT ADVICE FROM BERNARD BARUCH

Of all those who made their marks on Wall Street, few commanded more respect
and admiration than Bernard Baruch did. In his time, he made millions,
advised U.S. presidents, and was a primary source for quotes about the great
events of his day. Baruch died in 1965 at the age of 94; but his thinking
which enabled him to amass a fortune still has relevance today.

The following excerpts are taken from a Bottom Line Personal (August 1,
1997) article outlining Baruch's thoughts on investing. We believe this
advice is particularly relevant to today's existing conditions in the stock
market.

"Hold firm opinions, but be open to changing them when another outcome is
inevitable. Stubbornness as to opinions must be entirely eliminated.
But when you decide, act promptly. Don't wait to see what the market will
do."

It was precisely this flexibility that saved Baruch in the Crash of 1929. It
was always thought that Baruch sold his stocks when the market was at its
high in 1929, thus avoiding the big crash in October. We know now that this
story was nothing but a myth. In fact, Baruch was a committed bull in 1929,
believing that a new economic age had arrived (sound familiar?). The
financier was actually still heavily invested when the market collapsed.
Despite his commitment to stocks, Baruch sold most of his holdings while
other investors, believing that a recovery was around the bend, held on.
Once he realized he was wrong, Baruch turned defensive and cut his losses.

Result: While Baruch didn't escape unscathed his fortune fell from about $25
million to about $16 million he experienced a decline of only 36% while the
overall market plummeted by more than 80% by 1932.

"Take risks, but put prudence ahead of profits."

Baruch was every inch a speculator, with an enormous tolerance for risk.
After he made his first million on Wall Street, by the age of 30, he had
more than enough on which to live comfortably. Yet he chose to put that
million at risk to make a second million and a third million until his
fortune amounted to roughly $25 million. For all his willingness to take
risks, Baruch was always wise enough to know when it was time to settle for
a reasonable profit instead of holding out for the last dollar.

Example: Baruch's greatest investment success was in a mining company called
Texas Gulf Sulphur Co. He invested when it was a small company and watched
its fortunes rise. When he sold his stake in 1926, he walked off with a
profit of between $6 million and $8 million. That was a substantial profit,
yet it was only a fraction of what he would have earned if he had waited a
few years longer. But Baruch expressed no regrets about selling too soon.
His advice, as spelled out in a memo written in 1930, was, "Become more
humble as the market goes your way. It is not prudent to wait for the top of
the market too sell, it is better to sell "too soon."


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article
Date: 15 Sep 1998 20:41:06 -0700 (PDT)

<<The other points I found interesting which are probably buried in
WON's
book is that the top of the right side of the cup is lower than the left
side and that the pivot point is 1/8 a point above this with a
breakout of
50% increase in volume.>>

Unfortunately, a breakout on a 50% increase in volume is likely to
blow through that 1/8 point in seconds.  In fact, the stock may
already be extended before you even know the breakout has occurred
(assuming it didn't take place before the market even opened).  If you
don't want to buy the handle before the breakout, it might be prudent
to wait till the handle is tested rather than buy too far into the
breakout.

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Buying Ex-Momentum Stocks
Date: 15 Sep 1998 21:12:24 -0700 (PDT)


Ran across a very interesting two-part article on when and if and how
to buy a trashed momentum stock.

http://www.pathfinder.com/money/earnings/mstory3.html

--Db




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI
Date: 16 Sep 1998 00:29:26 EDT

In a message dated 9/15/98 12:32:08 AM Eastern Daylight Time, [e-mail]
writes:

<< Subj:     Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout in AVEI
 Date:    9/15/98 12:32:08 AM Eastern Daylight Time
 From:    [e-mail] (Joe Scott)
 Sender:    [e-mail]
 Reply-to:    [e-mail]
 To:    [e-mail]

 no volume,, only 1,961K
 average is 1.729K
 just up on a good day.. looks to me anyway,

 joe


  >>
good earnings!!
good company to own.

dont know a thing joe

Surindra

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It
Date: 15 Sep 1998 21:28:35 -0700 (PDT)



OSTE looks like it might be getting ready to do something.  Oddly
enough, it's done almost the exact opposite of the market all year.
And there appears to be an ascending right triangle (ooo).

As for a potential short, LHSG seems to be choking.  Comments?

--Db


_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Part Two - Dave Cameron
Date: 16 Sep 1998 06:37:53 -0400

> Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 22:59:03 -0500
> From: Dave Cameron <[e-mail]>
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
>
> Jeffry, old man,
>
> With all the comments this message generated, I can hardly WAIT to see
> Part Two.   How many parts are there?   Is this a mini-series?

Haven't the foggiest what you are talking about, Dave.  Posted a
comment/question to Tom W. under a heading which already existed, he
responded...that's that.

Old Man.

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Top 50 Financial Sites
Date: 16 Sep 1998 07:46:55 -0500 (CDT)

Thanks, Dan Musicant.  Will peruse.

Mary Keener


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Top 50 Financial Sites
Date: 16 Sep 1998 07:49:42 -0500 (CDT)

Thanks, Patrick, for the site.  Will peruse.

Mary Keener


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article
Date: 16 Sep 1998 08:56:49 -0400

DB,

How do you feel about the option of buying on having a buy stop limit so
that you have a shot at it and then checking volume(or if your watching
check volume and guess) the limit obviously protects you from big gaps.

Peter

----------
> From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article
> Date: Tuesday, September 15, 1998 11:41 PM
>
> <<The other points I found interesting which are probably buried in
> WON's
> book is that the top of the right side of the cup is lower than the left
> side and that the pivot point is 1/8 a point above this with a
> breakout of
> 50% increase in volume.>>
>
> Unfortunately, a breakout on a 50% increase in volume is likely to
> blow through that 1/8 point in seconds.  In fact, the stock may
> already be extended before you even know the breakout has occurred
> (assuming it didn't take place before the market even opened).  If you
> don't want to buy the handle before the breakout, it might be prudent
> to wait till the handle is tested rather than buy too far into the
> breakout.
>
> --Db
>
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
> -

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 16 Sep 1998 08:08:12 -0500 (CDT)

Dean Edwards,

Excellent post.  Much needed by me and possibly
others.

Does O'Neil mention the books he finds the best,
besides Baruch's autobiography?

Mary Keener








-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cup and Handle Article
Date: 16 Sep 1998 06:16:34 -0700 (PDT)



<<DB,

How do you feel about the option of buying on having a buy stop limit so
that you have a shot at it and then checking volume(or if your watching
check volume and guess) the limit obviously protects you from big gaps.

Peter>>

Depends on how much service your broker is willing or able to provide.
 If you can tell him at what point you want to buy on what kind of
volume, this is a plan that several people I correspond with have
suggested and/or use.  But if you like the volume pattern in the
handle, you can also take a partial position with a tight sell-stop.
I didn't see the IBD article, but if the stock has retraced at least
half its descent and is within 10-15% of the left rim and is in a
minimum three-week handle, I don't see the handle as particularly
perilous if the wind is at your back.

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It
Date: 16 Sep 1998 09:23:21 -0400

Db--

Agreed LHSG looks like a beautiful short to me based on its chart.  It
formed a  double top, broke below the 50dma, bounced from a break below the
200dma, and is now breaking lower after hitting the 50dma from the
underside.  Also 50dma is now in a downtrend.

Note well, all of the above is from someone with almost no experience in
shorting.  But I have done a bit of thinking about what a chart should look
like and this one seems like the textbook.

OSTE, trying to move up but handle seems too low in "cup".  Needs to move
up 15% from here before threatening new high ground.  I think it needs a
while to finish out its formation.  Too low in the formation, even for one
of my "low level breakouts".  Although it is on my "close" watchlist (ie.
nearly ready).

Best Regards,
Craig

At 09:28 PM 9/15/98 -0700, you wrote:
>
>
>OSTE looks like it might be getting ready to do something.  Oddly
>enough, it's done almost the exact opposite of the market all year.
>And there appears to be an ascending right triangle (ooo).
>
>As for a potential short, LHSG seems to be choking.  Comments?
>
>--Db
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It
Date: 16 Sep 1998 07:05:06 -0700 (PDT)

<<OSTE, trying to move up but handle seems too low in "cup".  Needs to
move
up 15% from here before threatening new high ground.  I think it needs a
while to finish out its formation.  Too low in the formation, even for
one
of my "low level breakouts".  Although it is on my "close" watchlist
(ie.
nearly ready).

Best Regards,
Craig>>

Depends on where you place the left rim of the cup, if this is a cup.
Before I left AOL, there was some discussion about what constitutes
the "old high", that is, whether it is an all-time high, 52-week high,
or YTD high.  Hardly anyone advanced the case of the all-time high,
particularly if it was years in the past.  But there was an
interesting debate between the 52-week and YTD advocates, the latter
proposing that--largely due to tax-selling--much of the overhead
supply may no longer be there if the high was before January.  In the
case of OSTE, this would put the "high" at 27.5, not 32.5.  There are
also the 200 and 50d MAs to consider.

I'm also not particularly crazy about the slope in July, but I do like
that selling climax at the bottom.  As far as the volume pattern goes,
particularly the up volume and the volume in the handle, it looks much
better on a weekly chart.

Food for thought.

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It
Date: 16 Sep 1998 10:15:25 -0400

Db-

At 07:05 AM 9/16/98 -0700, you wrote:
>In the
>case of OSTE, this would put the "high" at 27.5, not 32.5.

I agree, I would be inclined to buy a breakout at 27.5 with 150%adv.

>I'm also not particularly crazy about the slope in July, but I do like
>that selling climax at the bottom.  As far as the volume pattern goes,
>particularly the up volume and the volume in the handle, it looks much
>better on a weekly chart.

Agree completely. Nice selling climax. Weekly volume looks very constructive.

Best Regards,
Craig


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results
Date: 15 Sep 1998 19:40:41 -0700

<html>
<font face="Arial, Helvetica" size=2>Here's my results based on August
data. They look best in HTML; I will not send in text anymore. I ignored
shares out - only two biggies cut the mustard anyway. The rest of the
criteria more or less follow Db's reinterpretation of HTMMIS to include
D/E and ROE.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
COMPANYTickExchIndustryTREND EPGRQEPS 0/-4QEPS -1/-524WK PCHG%SHARES OUT%
INSTITUT% INSIDERS20D AVEVOLQEPS -2/-6QEPS -2/-7ROED/EquityEPS GR %0Q
%-1Q %24wk %    GRSRSTotal Score<br>
   Thq Inc
THQI      NSDQ
COMP-SOFTWARE199164617-311541732222334254510.098%92%99%85%85%92%<br>
   Symix Systems  SYMX
NSDQ
COMP-SOFTWARE9238125362338597553333200.094%68%88%88%90%85%<br>
   Timberline SoftTMBS      NSDQ
COMP-SOFTWARE5862233-117291745380133250460.085%78%95%79%76%83%<br>
   Gemstar Intl   GMSTF
NSDQ  ELEC
PRODS-MISC66443794736327015155601900620.088%71%62%90%93%81%<br>
   Anchor Gaming  SLOT
NSDQ
LEISURE&REC/GMG4682111-15134255145305100105360.088%88%88%67%69%80%<br>
   Jack Henry AsscJKHY      NSDQ
COMP-INTEGT SYS326129241935281392153015350.065%77%57%95%97%78%<br>
   Paychex Inc
PAYX      NSDQ
COMP-SERVICES36343314163581172588538350.071%66%59%92%95%76%<br>
   First Years IncKIDD      NSDQ
CON PRD-MISC DISCREC432838-15104820515504826200.087%63%71%68%70%72%<br>
   Labor Ready IncLBOR      NSDQ
BUS SVCS47145126-3628401616767752075141170.176%96%92%41%35%68%<br>
   Peoplesoft Inc PSFT      NSDQ
COMP-SOFTWARE806786-382275724515926188109320.092%79%79%47%32%66%<br>
   Pac Gateway ExcPGEX      NSDQ
UTIL-TELEPHONE[phone]-391942222910154642200.2100%90%94%13%30%65%<br>
   Imperial Bcp
IMP       NYSE
BANKS-WEST1055060-373943141158956564180.999%89%91%12%32%65%<br>
   Buckle Inc
BKE       NYSE
RETAIL-APP/SHOE3370113-36222935720806860270.082%83%90%30%35%64%<br>
   Rexall Sundown RXSD      NSDQ
MED-DRUGS599360-5272484974598573260.087%89%80%27%15%60%<br>
   Fastenal
FAST      NSDQ  BLDG
PRD-RT/WHL343243-353845274183552930280.083%69%74%32%36%59%<br>
<br>
</font><br>
<div>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists</div>
<div>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site</div>
<div>PFB Information</div>
<div><a href="mailto:[e-mail]" EUDORA=AUTOURL>mailto:[e-mail]</a></div>
WWW
<a href="http://orerockon.com/" EUDORA=AUTOURL>http://OreRockOn.com</a>
</html>




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 17 Sep 1998 03:33:31 +1200

Some of the the books that O'Neil has mentioned and that I have commited to
memory as having read them, for that reason:

The Battle for Investment Survival
    by Gerald M. Loeb

One up on Wall Street
        by Peter Lynch

How to Trade in Stocks
    by Jesse Livermore

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
    by Jesse LeFevere

Read every book by traders to study where they lost money. You will learn
nothing
relevant from their profits. (the markets adjust). You will learn from their
losses. It never ceases to amaze me when someone comes forward and claims
they have discover  a new  "magic trading  formula"  indicator for the stock
market. The best thing you can do, is keep it to yourself!

Just an interesting footnote:  A lot of people think  that Jesse LeFevere
was just a pseudonym  for Jesse Livermore. According to the book  "Crashes"
it is not!

Quoting the author's book:  "My good friend J.M had seen it all. He was one
of the old-timers, who had operated in the Chicago grain 'pits' with Jesse
Livermore. In his breast pocket J.M always carried a small book called
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The author was Jesse LeFevere, who became
a close friend of Jesse Livermore's, and the  book was a tribute to
Livermore and his biography. Inside J.M's copy was the inscription: " To
John, the best trader I have ever known.' It was signed Jesse L. Livermore'

An example of the market wisdom of this trader.

Author: "You don't seem to have entered the price you paid for those shares
in your book. Or when.'

JM: 'No! Never, never! As soon as I buy a share, I try to forget what I paid
for it. The last
thing in the world I ever want to do is think about what I paid for these
things. If I do, it
might influence my judgement. The stock market isn't interested in what I
paid for those
shares. The only thing that counts is how the shares are behaving now!"


"There are many who claim years of experience. In most cases those years of
experience represent little more than a few months experience repeated again
and again over the years. Twenty years experience equal to one years
experience repeated twenty times is par for the course."

What I'm trying to illustrate is that investment books are produced to fool
the public.
There is another book that escapes me for the moment but its called
something like  "How I made a Million Dollars in the Stock Market" well just
on that title alone, it would sell  like hot cakes. I am now expressing my
opinion.  This fraud/con man wrote a book to fool the masses! Don't believe
everything  you read on the market.  Like the stock
market its a jungle out there. The role of the public is to be eaten.


-----Original Message-----


>Dean Edwards,
>
>Excellent post.  Much needed by me and possibly
>others.
>
>Does O'Neil mention the books he finds the best,
>besides Baruch's autobiography?
>
>Mary Keener
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results
Date: 13 Sep 1998 09:08:54 -0700

<html>
<font face="Arial, Helvetica" size=2>Here's my results based on August
data. They look best in HTML; I will not send in text anymore. I ignored
shares out - only two biggies cut the mustard anyway. The rest of the
criteria more or less follow Db's reinterpretation of HTMMIS to include
D/E and ROE.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<font size=2><table border=0>
<tr><td width=164>COMPANY<td width=77>Tick</td><td width=66>Exch</td><td width=214>Industry</td><td width=64>TREND
EPGR</td><td width=55>QEPS 0/-4</td><td width=67>QEPS
-1/-5</td><td width=71>24WK PCHG%</td><td width=65>SHARES
OUT</td><td width=80>% INSTITUT</td><td width=88>%
INSIDERS</td><td width=76>20D AVEVOL</td><td width=55>QEPS
-2/-6</td><td width=55>QEPS
-2/-7</td><td width=44>ROE</td><td width=46>D/Equity</td><td width=54>EPS
GR %</td><td width=51>0Q %</td><td width=57>-1Q %</td><td width=68>24wk
%    GRS</td><td width=52>RS</td><td width=54>Total
Score</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Thq
Inc
<td width=77>THQI
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>COMP-SOFTWARE</td><td width=64>199</td><td width=55>164</td><td width=67>617</td><td width=71>-3</td><td width=65>11</td><td width=80>54</td><td width=88>17</td><td width=76>322223</td><td width=55>342</td><td width=55>54</td><td width=44>51</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>98%</td><td width=51>92%</td><td width=57>99%</td><td width=68>85%</td><td width=52>85%</td><td width=54>92%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Symix Systems
<td width=77>SYMX
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>COMP-SOFTWARE</td><td width=64>92</td><td width=55>38</td><td width=67>125</td><td width=71>3</td><td width=65>6</td><td width=80>23</td><td width=88>38</td><td width=76>59755</td><td width=55>33</td><td width=55>33</td><td width=44>20</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>94%</td><td width=51>68%</td><td width=57>88%</td><td width=68>88%</td><td width=52>90%</td><td width=54>85%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Timberline
Soft<td width=77>TMBS
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>COMP-SOFTWARE</td><td width=64>58</td><td width=55>62</td><td width=67>233</td><td width=71>-11</td><td width=65>7</td><td width=80>29</td><td width=88>17</td><td width=76>45380</td><td width=55>133</td><td width=55>250</td><td width=44>46</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>85%</td><td width=51>78%</td><td width=57>95%</td><td width=68>79%</td><td width=52>76%</td><td width=54>83%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Gemstar Intl
<td width=77>GMSTF     </td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>ELEC
PRODS-MISC</td><td width=64>66</td><td width=55>44</td><td width=67>37</td><td width=71>9</td><td width=65>47</td><td width=80>36</td><td width=88>32</td><td width=76>701515</td><td width=55>560</td><td width=55>1900</td><td width=44>62</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>88%</td><td width=51>71%</td><td width=57>62%</td><td width=68>90%</td><td width=52>93%</td><td width=54>81%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Anchor Gaming
<td width=77>SLOT
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>LEISURE&REC/GMG</td><td width=64>46</td><td width=55>82</td><td width=67>111</td><td width=71>-15</td><td width=65>13</td><td width=80>42</td><td width=88>55</td><td width=76>145305</td><td width=55>100</td><td width=55>105</td><td width=44>36</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>88%</td><td width=51>88%</td><td width=57>88%</td><td width=68>67%</td><td width=52>69%</td><td width=54>80%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Jack Henry
Assc<td width=77>JKHY
</td><td width=66>NSDQ  </td><td width=214>COMP-INTEGT
SYS</td><td width=64>32</td><td width=55>61</td><td width=67>29</td><td width=71>24</td><td width=65>19</td><td width=80>35</td><td width=88>28</td><td width=76>139215</td><td width=55>30</td><td width=55>15</td><td width=44>35</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>65%</td><td width=51>77%</td><td width=57>57%</td><td width=68>95%</td><td width=52>97%</td><td width=54>78%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Paychex Inc
<td width=77>PAYX
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>COMP-SERVICES</td><td width=64>36</td><td width=55>34</td><td width=67>33</td><td width=71>14</td><td width=65>163</td><td width=80>58</td><td width=88>11</td><td width=76>725885</td><td width=55>38</td><td width=55></td><td width=44>35</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>71%</td><td width=51>66%</td><td width=57>59%</td><td width=68>92%</td><td width=52>95%</td><td width=54>76%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   First Years
Inc<td width=77>KIDD
</td><td width=66>NSDQ  </td><td width=214>CON PRD-MISC
DISCREC</td><td width=64>43</td><td width=55>28</td><td width=67>38</td><td width=71>-15</td><td width=65>10</td><td width=80>48</td><td width=88>20</td><td width=76>51550</td><td width=55>48</td><td width=55>26</td><td width=44>20</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>87%</td><td width=51>63%</td><td width=57>71%</td><td width=68>68%</td><td width=52>70%</td><td width=54>72%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Labor Ready
Inc<td width=77>LBOR
</td><td width=66>NSDQ  </td><td width=214>BUS
SVCS</td><td width=64>47</td><td width=55>145</td><td width=67>126</td><td width=71>-36</td><td width=65>28</td><td width=80>40</td><td width=88>16</td><td width=76>1676775</td><td width=55>2075</td><td width=55>141</td><td width=44>17</td><td width=46>0.1</td><td width=54>76%</td><td width=51>96%</td><td width=57>92%</td><td width=68>41%</td><td width=52>35%</td><td width=54>68%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Peoplesoft Inc
<td width=77>PSFT
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>COMP-SOFTWARE</td><td width=64>80</td><td width=55>67</td><td width=67>86</td><td width=71>-38</td><td width=65>227</td><td width=80>57</td><td width=88>24</td><td width=76>5159261</td><td width=55>88</td><td width=55>109</td><td width=44>32</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>92%</td><td width=51>79%</td><td width=57>79%</td><td width=68>47%</td><td width=52>32%</td><td width=54>66%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Pac Gateway
Exc<td width=77>PGEX
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>UTIL-TELEPHONE</td><td width=64>139</td><td width=55>56</td><td width=67>69</td><td width=71>-39</td><td width=65>19</td><td width=80>42</td><td width=88>22</td><td width=76>291015</td><td width=55>46</td><td width=55>42</td><td width=44>20</td><td width=46>0.2</td><td width=54>100%</td><td width=51>90%</td><td width=57>94%</td><td width=68>13%</td><td width=52>30%</td><td width=54>65%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Imperial Bcp
<td width=77>IMP
</td><td width=66>NYSE
</td><td width=214>BANKS-WEST</td><td width=64>105</td><td width=55>50</td><td width=67>60</td><td width=71>-37</td><td width=65>39</td><td width=80>43</td><td width=88>14</td><td width=76>115895</td><td width=55>65</td><td width=55>64</td><td width=44>18</td><td width=46>0.9</td><td width=54>99%</td><td width=51>89%</td><td width=57>91%</td><td width=68>12%</td><td width=52>32%</td><td width=54>65%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Buckle Inc
<td width=77>BKE
</td><td width=66>NYSE
</td><td width=214>RETAIL-APP/SHOE</td><td width=64>33</td><td width=55>70</td><td width=67>113</td><td width=71>-36</td><td width=65>22</td><td width=80>29</td><td width=88>35</td><td width=76>72080</td><td width=55>68</td><td width=55>60</td><td width=44>27</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>82%</td><td width=51>83%</td><td width=57>90%</td><td width=68>30%</td><td width=52>35%</td><td width=54>64%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>   Rexall Sundown
<td width=77>RXSD
</td><td width=66>NSDQ
</td><td width=214>MED-DRUGS</td><td width=64>59</td><td width=55>93</td><td width=67>60</td><td width=71>-52</td><td width=65>72</td><td width=80>48</td><td width=88>49</td><td width=76>745985</td><td width=55>73</td><td width=55></td><td width=44>26</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>87%</td><td width=51>89%</td><td width=57>80%</td><td width=68>27%</td><td width=52>15%</td><td width=54>60%</td></tr>
<tr><td width=164>
Fastenal
<td width=77>FAST
</td><td width=66>NSDQ  </td><td width=214>BLDG
PRD-RT/WHL</td><td width=64>34</td><td width=55>32</td><td width=67>43</td><td width=71>-35</td><td width=65>38</td><td width=80>45</td><td width=88>27</td><td width=76>418355</td><td width=55>29</td><td width=55>30</td><td width=44>28</td><td width=46>0.0</td><td width=54>83%</td><td width=51>69%</td><td width=57>74%</td><td width=68>32%</td><td width=52>36%</td><td width=54>59%</td></tr>
</table>
<br>
</font><br>
<div>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists</div>
<div>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site</div>
<div>PFB Information</div>
<div><a href="mailto:[e-mail]" EUDORA=AUTOURL>mailto:[e-mail]</a></div>
WWW
<a href="http://orerockon.com/" EUDORA=AUTOURL>http://OreRockOn.com</a>
</html>






-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 16 Sep 1998 19:06:34 +0200

>What I'm trying to illustrate is that investment books are produced to fool
>the public.
>There is another book that escapes me for the moment but its called
>something like  "How I made a Million Dollars in the Stock Market" well just
>on that title alone, it would sell  like hot cakes. I am now expressing my
>opinion.  This fraud/con man wrote a book to fool the masses! Don't believe
>everything  you read on the market.  Like the stock
>market its a jungle out there. The role of the public is to be eaten.


'How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market' is the title of an excellent
book written by Nicolas Darvas. When I read the book I recognized several
'rules' that are also found in WON's book. Since Darvas' book is older than
WON's, I assume O'Neil got these ideas from Darvas.

Here's William O'Neil's recommended reading list:

How To Make Money In Stocks - William O'Neil

The Battle For Investment Survival - G.M. Loeb

Tape Reading And Market Tactics - H. Neill

How To Trade In Stocks - J. Livermore

Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator - E. Lefevre

The Sophisticated Investor - Burton Crane

How I Made Two Million Dollars In The Stock Market - N. Darvas

My Own Story - Bernard Baruch

One Up On Wall Street - Peter Lynch

How To Buy Stocks - Louis Engel








Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Jeff Salisbury)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI Scan Results
Date: 16 Sep 1998 11:31:40 -0600

Canslim'ers,

I just reposted Tim Fisher's message.  I think this one I reposted is formatted
as Tim desire's it -- at least it worked for me when I received the message
from the canslim list software.

Tim has made a herculean effort to share this information with the group.
 Usually, I don't permit HTML postings to the group.  However, I am going to
experiment a bit.  I suspect that most of you non-digest subscribers will be
able to read Tim's message just fine.  However, I also suspect that non of you
digest readers will be able to read it.  I will appreaciate any feed-back.

If Tim's message appears badly formated to you, try loading the following URL
in your browser:

    ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/fisher.html

Best Regards,

Jeff - canslim list admin/owner



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 16 Sep 1998 20:46:17 -0800


> Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
>     by Jesse LeFevere

Actually, its by Edwin Lefevre.

> Just an interesting footnote:  A lot of people think  that Jesse LeFevere
> was just a pseudonym  for Jesse Livermore. According to the book  "Crashes"
> it is not!

I think it is generally agreed that Reminiscences... is about Jesse
Livermore.





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: How far back is the "high" (was Re: [CANSLIM] The Long And The Short Of It)
Date: 16 Sep 1998 21:07:33 -0400

FWIW, the only high I subscribe to or consider is the 52 wk high.
Several reasons:

every computer system I have ever used as a broker also uses this,
thus a client asking what is the high will be given the 52 wk high as
an answer; second, who would trust a YTD high in Feb, Mar, or even
April given the volatility and seasonality of that period; third, most
websites I have used online also use 12 months vs any other time
period; fourth, if the latest high was achieved during the previous
fall, just before the tax related selling occurred, it still says
something about the stock's strength, and I wouldn't want to disregard
that until I got to a comparative period, which would be 12 months
later.

Likewise, any high past a year ago is just too historic for me to be
worried about. How many investors in this mkt do you know that are
holding on to most of their growing stocks, or volatile ones, for more
than a year? In this climate, a lot can happen to a company's earnings
and sales in much less than a year, forget several years.

As I said, FWIW.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>Before I left AOL, there was some discussion about what constitutes
>the "old high", that is, whether it is an all-time high, 52-week
high,
>or YTD high.  Hardly anyone advanced the case of the all-time high,
>particularly if it was years in the past.  But there was an
>interesting debate between the 52-week and YTD advocates, the latter
>proposing that--largely due to tax-selling--much of the overhead
>supply may no longer be there if the high was before January




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day and Futures trading
Date: 16 Sep 1998 13:52:21 +0200

Jeffry,

Yes, please keep me updated on your futures trading if you'd like.

I'd like to follow your 'moves' re: this futures trading to get an idea
about how to trade futures. What the costs are, when to buy, when to sell.

If you'd rather not tell me, no big deal. I'd understand.

Your combination of follow-through day method, index futures (no more stock
picking) fascinates me, so that's why I'm interested.

Best Regards,



-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Irrelevant Technical Mumbo Jumbo
Date: 17 Sep 1998 08:14:47 -0400

DJIA 200 SMA: 8555.04
      50 SMA: 8564.49

A difference of basically 14 points.
Yesterdays difference 31 points.

The DJIA 50 SMA is coming down with increasing haste.
The DJIA 50 SMA will cross negatively below the 200 SMA today.
It will take some time to work this one off.
I may have to become a daytrader to find opportunities here!  :-)

Last time we had the pleasure of the 50 trading beneath the 200 was back in
1994. With the benefit of hindsight, not a bad long term buying
opportunity. This is not to imply that the markets repeat themselves in any
way.

FWIW

Frank Wolynski



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 17 Sep 1998 07:59:28 -0500 (CDT)

Dean Edwards,

Have read about Jesse Livermore several
times.  He is my ideal investor - humble,
sharp, market-wise, honest and diligent,
un-complicated in his method with a
"feel" that was uncanny.

"There are many who claim years of experience.
In most cases those years of experience represent
little more than a few months experience repeated
again and again over the years. Twenty years
experience equal to one years experience repeated
twenty times is par for the course."

The above quote is most telling and just another
way of viewing market experience.  It isn't so
much the years behind you that's important as what
you have learned from those years that makes the
difference.  Sometimes, a novice can be very
successful depending upon their approach and how
they see themselves both as people and then as
market watchers.

I recall Db posting something once that had to do
with the market and the psychology of the
individual - character, influences both internal
and external, etc.  Excellent and true.

This is what I find so challenging about trading.
It isn't just numbers and making "instant" "quick"
money.  It's also about economics, psychology,
history, politics, education.

Two months ago, I had to stop trading.  I found
myself, once again, getting "caught up" in the
daily moves of the stock prices I was trading.
My emotions were ruling my decisions to the point
that my account was tilting towards the negative.
Now I'm paper trading, forcing myself to calm
down, be patient, study the charts, get back to
O'Neil and Livermore, observe, watch  -  all
with the goal of simplifying, following the market
with the best indicators (which I'm still trying
to figure out), not the analysts, the forecasters,
the "star" experts, "Zen" masters and others.

Apologize for this long post, but maybe there
are others out there who have gone off on a
tangent, gotten discouraged and even contemplated
quitting.  Obviously, individual investing isn't
for everyone and knowing you aren't the type is
perceptive, however, to become good at something
requires some time, failure and objectivity.

Mary Keener



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - nonCANSLIM
Date: 17 Sep 1998 08:10:20 -0500 (CDT)

Johan Van Houtven,

As with Dean Edwards, the title "How I Made a
Million Dollars...." would have turned me off.
Just goes to show that you can't judge by
title, however hard that may be.  Thanks for
enlightening me.  It's on my list.

And thanks for the list.  Noted.

Mary Keener





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dave Cameron <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part Two - Dave Cameron
Date: 17 Sep 1998 08:26:03 -0500

Jeffry White wrote:
>
> > Date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 22:59:03 -0500
> > From: Dave Cameron <[e-mail]>
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM
> >
> > Jeffry, old man,
> >
> > With all the comments this message generated, I can hardly WAIT to see
> > Part Two.   How many parts are there?   Is this a mini-series?
>
> Haven't the foggiest what you are talking about, Dave.  Posted a
> comment/question to Tom W. under a heading which already existed, he
> responded...that's that.

That's because you're slippin' in your old age.   The attached heading
implies there might be a Part 3, Part 4, and Part 5....    I guess
its really Tom's mini-series then.    But, actually, when I logged in
there were about 10 messages in a row with the subject line:

 "Part One - Group Strength; Part Two - NonCANSLIM"

Yours was the first of the line; so I figured its a popular start
to a potential mini-series.

Geez, if you have to explain a joke - it loses its effectiveness!

Dave C.

>
> Old Man.
>
> -

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: mikelu <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] WON's AOL chat on 9/1
Date: 17 Sep 1998 11:46:54 -0700

Has this been posted already? I just saw it in DGO.

http://www.dailygraphs.com/dgtranscripts/aolchat.htm

Mike


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article
Date: 17 Sep 1998 16:46:22 -0400

A couple of days ago someone mentioned the article in TAofSC that provides
an algorithm to scan for Cup/w Handle patterns.  Has anyone tried to code
this algorithm?  What packages do you think could implement the scan?  I
have TC2000 which performs poorly in the time domain and of course Excel,
but I don't feel like undertaking a Visual Basic project right now.

Thanks,

Joe

[e-mail]



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: mikelu <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] 4 up days
Date: 17 Sep 1998 20:46:15 -0700

I thought I sent this yesterday, but it was still laying around...

Vic Sperandeo in Trader Vic II says that 4 up-days in a row show the trend
has changed. Do you think we have to wait for the Dow to get back above the
200dma or 50dma before it's safe? I've been planning to wait for individual
stocks to get back above their 200 and 50-dma's before considering them,
but I wonder if the same applies to the indexes.

I'm losing patience.

Mike



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 17 Sep 1998 21:54:45 -0800

Date sent:          Thu, 17 Sep 1998 07:59:28 -0500 (CDT)

Had a couple of hopefully pertinent comments on your remarks -

> Have read about Jesse Livermore several
> times.  He is my ideal investor - humble,
> sharp, market-wise, honest and diligent,
> un-complicated in his method with a
> "feel" that was uncanny.

One thing to remember about Livermore, which tells you something
about being a full time investor and the dangers for even an
experienced trader, is that he committed suicide.  Can't remember
the details, think it was during one of the periods where he was
broke.



> Two months ago, I had to stop trading.  I found
> myself, once again, getting "caught up" in the
> daily moves of the stock prices I was trading.
> My emotions were ruling my decisions to the point
> that my account was tilting towards the negative.
> Now I'm paper trading, forcing myself to calm
> down, be patient, study the charts, get back to

I've always remembered one of Darvas's experiences related in
"How I Made Two Million....".   He had been trading from Europe,
where he only had weekly closing prices.  He returned to NY,
started listening to all the brokers and reading the news, and he
started losing money.  I had to cut himself off from all the market
opinons and rumors he was hearing  to get back on the profitable
side.



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 4 up days
Date: 18 Sep 1998 05:01:28 GMT

On Thu, 17 Sep 1998 20:46:15 -0700, you wrote:

:I thought I sent this yesterday, but it was still laying around...
:
:Vic Sperandeo in Trader Vic II says that 4 up-days in a row show the =
trend=20
:has changed. Do you think we have to wait for the Dow to get back above =
the=20
:200dma or 50dma before it's safe? I've been planning to wait for =
individual=20
:stocks to get back above their 200 and 50-dma's before considering them,=
=20
:but I wonder if the same applies to the indexes.
:
:I'm losing patience.
:
:Mike
:=00=00
:
If I were you, I'd hang on to my patience. I think you'll be glad you
did. Today saw a sell-off, putting a major punctuation on that 4-up
day cycle Vic may have referred to. Myself, I think the downside
potential exceeds the upside, at least in the short term.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON's AOL chat on 9/1
Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:00:12 -0400

Mike,

Thanks for posting the AOL chat with WON address!  Very useful reading.  He
seems to be saying the bear market may continue for another one to four
more months.  Makes sense - if for no other reason than this: there are few
nice bases out there yet.  I also found his comment about leaders emerging
over a 13 week period interesting.  This agrees with a study I did from one
of the steeper corrections a year or so ago (most of the new leadership
stocks emerged in the first couple of months in that case).

Best Regards,
Craig

At 11:46 AM 9/17/98 -0700, you wrote:
>Has this been posted already? I just saw it in DGO.
>
>http://www.dailygraphs.com/dgtranscripts/aolchat.htm
>
>Mike
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article
Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:25:32 -0400

The author has a program and a list his email is [e-mail].

I'm still waiting on him to return the message.  If your real interested
i'd buy a copy of this month Stocks&Commodities.

Peter Newell

PS might help us to mention your on this list.


----------
> From: [e-mail]
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article
> Date: Thursday, September 17, 1998 4:46 PM
>
> A couple of days ago someone mentioned the article in TAofSC that
provides
> an algorithm to scan for Cup/w Handle patterns.  Has anyone tried to code
> this algorithm?  What packages do you think could implement the scan?  I
> have TC2000 which performs poorly in the time domain and of course Excel,
> but I don't feel like undertaking a Visual Basic project right now.
>
> Thanks,
>
> Joe
>
> [e-mail]
>
>
>
> -

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] 4 up days
Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:09:01 -0500 (CDT)

Mike,

If you lose your patience, you will lose your
money.  The two go hand in hand, so hang in
there, and get in when it's the right time,
not when you want.

Yesterday's market indicated that a 4-day
waiting period is not infallible.

Mary Keener





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 18 Sep 1998 09:20:50 -0500 (CDT)

Patrick,

You wrote: <One thing to remember about Livermore,
which tells you something  about being a full time
investor and the dangers for even an experienced
trader, is that he committed suicide.  Can't remember
the details, think it was during one of the periods
where he was broke.>

Yes, I know, and his suicide did make me reflect
about the game of investing.  His suicide takes
nothing away from his sound investment philosophy
and practice, though.  He may have had a character
flaw (don't we all?).  Whatever, I still think if
you take what is good about someone's approach,
put it and yourself in perspective, you can benefit
tremendously.

Mary Keener





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - Mary
Date: 18 Sep 1998 10:27:400 -0500

Mary wrote:

"Apologize for this long post, but maybe there
are others out there who have gone off on a
tangent, gotten discouraged and even contemplated
quitting."

Mary, like you, I've had times where I thought of quitting, but the irony is
I've found those breaking points come at both ends of the profit and loss
spectrum.  Oddly enough, the psychological obstacles to succesful trading
(which you quite rightly and admirably seek to contain, I think) appear with
equal force on the other end of your pursuits.  They call themselves by
different names, but they are the self same monsters that lurk within.

The greatest game of all is correspondingly the most difficult of all.

Best of luck,

Jeffry





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "John K." <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question
Date: 18 Sep 1998 11:06:32 -0400

".  But thousands of people have been using it for ten years now and finding
success with it."

With thousands of people using it, the method becomes self fulfilling to an
extent.  With all those people searching for the exactly the same
fundamentals and chart patterns it is bound to affect the market.  The ones
who jump on first make the most money, the ones who jump on late may get hit
when the whole thing becomes overbought.

Also, the markets in the last ten years have been long term trending, with
buyin on dips a viable strategy.   If the next ten years are more like the
70s, Canslim will not do near as well.

John K.



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving?  Is the market ready to rise?
Date: 18 Sep 1998 13:35:28 -0400

I noticed an significant increase in short skirts at lunch today.  Does
this signal an end or beginning of a new bull market phase?  I don't know
but please do your own research.

Peter

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving?  Is the market ready to rise?
Date: 18 Sep 1998 15:16:16 -0400

Peter Newell wrote:

> I noticed an significant increase in short skirts at lunch today.  Does
> this signal an end or beginning of a new bull market phase?  I don't know
> but please do your own research.

It must mean we are flirting with a bear market, you're not as focused
onyour market moves as you usually are...



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55
Date: 18 Sep 1998 15:57:09 -0400

Are the small caps going to lead us back up?  Or is this a one day wonder?

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving?  Is the market
Date: 18 Sep 1998 16:13:26 -0400

>you're not as focused onyour market moves as you usually are...
Thanks, I was distracted
I'm waiting for the new lows to drop off we seem to be bouncing and I'm
always afraid of the other shoe dropping
----------
> From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Is Hem length indicator improving?  Is the market
readyto rise?
> Date: Friday, September 18, 1998 3:16 PM
>
> Peter Newell wrote:
>
> > I noticed an significant increase in short skirts at lunch today.  Does
> > this signal an end or beginning of a new bull market phase?  I don't
know
> > but please do your own research.
>
> It must mean we are flirting with a bear market, you're not as focused
> onyour market moves as you usually are...
>
>
>
> -

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders and Laggards
Date: 18 Sep 1998 16:07:01 -0700 (PDT)



Those of you who are still hunting for stocks to watch may find the
following page useful.  It's the CNBC "Top 100" list.

http://www.cnbc.com/moreinfo/980907_top100cat.html

--Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question
Date: 19 Sep 1998 06:05:03 -0700 (PDT)

I like your question, because I've been wondering the same thing
myself.  CANSLIM is evolving.  Here's what I've come up with:  For one
thing, institutional investors have more money and are the "elephants
in the bathtub".  At the last satellite conference, WON said that he
would not lokk at anything trading under 60,000 ADV; he's also upped
the trading price again.  Look at the NYSE intelligent tables fine
print.  The price has gone from a minimum of $15 a share to $18 a
share.  We have to be in the stocks that attract the institutional
investor (elephant) for the system to work; WON says that stocks have
to be trading enough shares so that the istitutional investors can
make their buys in a reasonable time. I see see these details as part
of the overall M.  WON is spending more time at the conferences and
devoting more space in the paper to chart reading and looking for
"proper bases" and charts that "look right".

I am reading Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John Murphy
now.  He talks about the 'self fullfilling prophecy'.  "Even if the
self-fullfilling prophecy were of major concern, it would probably be
self-correcting in nature.  ...traders would rely heavily on charts
until their concerted actions started to affect or distort the
markets.  Once traders realized this was happening, they would either
stop using the charts or adjust their trading tactics".  He says the
same thing is true for institutional investors, although they are a
bigger threat 'the possibility of all technicians acting at the same
time and in the same way is actually quite remote'.

TM





>
> ".  But thousands of people have been using it for ten years now and
finding
> success with it."
>
> With thousands of people using it, the method becomes self
fulfilling to an
> extent.  With all those people searching for the exactly the same
> fundamentals and chart patterns it is bound to affect the market.
The ones
> who jump on first make the most money, the ones who jump on late may
get hit
> when the whole thing becomes overbought.
>
> Also, the markets in the last ten years have been long term
trending, with
> buyin on dips a viable strategy.   If the next ten years are more
like the
> 70s, Canslim will not do near as well.
>
> John K.
>
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Software Evaluation -TASC
Date: 19 Sep 1998 15:45:03 -0700 (PDT)




http://www.traders.com/Documentation/Survey/98Survey.html

TM




---Peter Newell <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> The author has a program and a list his email is [e-mail].
>
> I'm still waiting on him to return the message.  If your real
interested
> i'd buy a copy of this month Stocks&Commodities.
>
> Peter Newell
>
> PS might help us to mention your on this list.
>
>
> ----------
> > From: [e-mail]
> > To: [e-mail]
> > Subject: [CANSLIM]Stocks & Commodities CANSLIM Article
> > Date: Thursday, September 17, 1998 4:46 PM
> >
> > A couple of days ago someone mentioned the article in TAofSC that
> provides
> > an algorithm to scan for Cup/w Handle patterns.  Has anyone tried
to code
> > this algorithm?  What packages do you think could implement the
scan?  I
> > have TC2000 which performs poorly in the time domain and of course
Excel,
> > but I don't feel like undertaking a Visual Basic project right now.
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > Joe
> >
> > [e-mail]
> >
> >
> >
> > -
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] (Fwd) Cooper From the ATI List  [non-canslim]
Date: 19 Sep 1998 22:07:08 -0800

Someone posted this to the Omega list.  Programmer types here
might find some of this interesting, something to backtest, it is very
short term stuff.  This is from the Jeff Cooper stuff, his initial screen
to find stocks to apply these patterns to is for high RS stocks, so
this isn't totally non-canslim.

I think the syntax is mostly easy to figure out.  The only one that
might not be is the [] symbol.  C[1] would be yesterday's close,
range[1] would be yesterday's range, or high - low.

------- Forwarded Message Follows -------
Date forwarded:     Sat, 19 Sep 1998 19:49:19 -0700
Date sent:          Sat, 19 Sep 1998 21:47:06 -0500
Forwarded by:       [e-mail]

I'm sure that this is not all of them...

Cooper 180:

1. Day 1: Close in bottom 25% of daily range.
2. Day 2: Close in top 25% of daily range.
3. Day 2's close is > 10dma and 50dma..


condition1 = C[1] <= L[1] + (.25 * range[1]);
condition2 = C >= L + (.75 * range);
condition3 = C > average(C,10) and C > average(C,50);

if condition1 and condition2 and condition3 then buy h + 0.5 stop;


FieldGoal:

1. Day 1: Open in top 25% of today's daily range.
2. Day 1: Close in bottom 25% of today's daily range.
3. Day 1: Today's range > xaverage(range,21).
4. Day2: Open <= bottom 25% of Day1 range.
5. Day 2: Close in top 25% of today's daily range.
6. Day2: Today's range > xaverage(range,21).


   Note: the code "hits" after the "left" and "center" goal posts show up.
You have to check for day 3 that the Open >= Day 2 close and you want a
move above Day2's High.

condition1 = O[1] >= L[1] + (.75 * range[1]);
condition2 = C[1] <= L[1] + (.25 * range[1]);
condition3 = range[1] > xaverage(range[1],21);
condition4 = O <= L[1] + (.25 * range[1]);
condition5 = C >= L + (.75 * range);
condition6 = range > xaverage(range,21);

if condition1 and condition2 and condition3 and condition4 and condition5
and condition6 then buy h stop;


Cooper Island:

1. Gap open down to a 2 month low.
2. Close in top 50% of day's range and >= Open.

condition1 = O < L[1] and L = Lowest(L,42);
condition2 = C >= L + (.50 * range) and C >= O;
if condition1 and condition2 and condition3 and condition4 and condition5
and condition6 then buy h + 0.5 stop;

With all of these scans you should wait for a move above the "hit" day's
high.





Mark Brown
-------------------------
"I tried being reasonable, I didn't like it." - Clint Eastwood
-------------------------




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question
Date: 20 Sep 1998 07:05:25 -0500 (CDT)

John K.

<If the next ten years are more like the
70s, Canslim will not do near as well.>

Your point about so many people using CANSLIM
lessening its effect and success factor is
well taken.  However, think of the number
of people who trade, the kinds, their goals,
their systems or lack of, the whole factor
of mass/crowd psychology, and I suspect that
adhering to a disciplined, challenging method,
such as CANSLIM (one among many, I assume),
will appeal to a minority only.  Anything
that requires work, patience, time, growth
both within oneself and the market will turn
a lot of people off, especially when they
experience their first loss.

Also, I wonder how many, even in this message
board, get off CANSLIM for whatever reason.
So, I wouldn't be concerned following CANSLIM,
using a tried-out, popular and successful
system for fear of competition from CANSLIMERS.

Regards,
Mary Keener







-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] From Daily Graphs
Date: 20 Sep 1998 09:25:58 -0400

Stocks in the DG books that hit new highs last week totaled a meager
61. Of these the ones with an RS/EPS of 80/80 or better and an A/D of
A or B were as follows:

AGN, ASGN, LGTO, LLY, PAYX, GILTF, MNMD, ABCW, DV, PHYS, TNSI, APCC,
GPSI, PEG, PBI, BEI, UFS, JKHY, NLCS, CVD, and MDU.

I have not yet looked at the charts or done any homework on these.
You're on your own.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Ari Lawson <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL
Date: 20 Sep 1998 11:39:18 -0400

According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American
conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow
Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American
conference.FWIW.


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] canslim, WON and JKHY-info forwarded
Date: 20 Sep 1998 19:05:06 EDT

JKHY was added to the active CANSLIM board Friday(09/18/98).
Chuck

COMPANY:------------------------------------------------Jack Henry & Assoc Inc
STOCK SYMBOL:----------------------------------------JKHY
EXCHANGE:-----------------------------------------------NASDAQ
CURRENT PRICE:-----------------------------------------45.00
COMPANY PROFILE:------------------------------------Develops markets and
supports turnkey in-house data processing systems software products which
improve productivity.
OUTSTANDING SHARES:-------------------------------20m
EPS RANK:------------------------------------------------97
RELATIVE STRENGTH RANK:-------------------------98
ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RANK:------------B
SPONSORSHIP RANK:----------------------------------D
GROUP STRENGTH RANK:-----------------------------A
DEBT PERCENTAGE:------------------------------------0
MANAGEMENT OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE:-------38
RETURN OF EQUITY PERCENTAGE:-----------------+34.9
PE RATIO:-------------------------------------------------39
THREE YEAR ANNUAL GROWTH RATE:------------+32%
LAST QUARTER EPS:----------------------------------+68%
PRIOR QUARTER EPS:---------------------------------+35%
LAST QUARTER SALES:------------------------------+86%
PERCENT ABOVE 10-WEEK AVERAGE PRICE:----+12
TWO YEAR HIGH:----------------------------------------47.38
TWO YEAR LOW:----------------------------------------17.50

Results of the CANSLIM and CANSLIM POTENTIAL active board after close
Friday(09/18/98).
Chuck

CANSLIM(+6.1%)

SYMBOL    PICKED   &   PRICE     PRESENT     EPS   RS    10 WEEK     A/D
JKHY         09/18/98         45.00       47.75          97      98      +12
B


CANSLIM POTENTIAL(picked when within 15% of NH))+21.8%)

SYMBOL    PICKED   &   PRICE     PRESENT     EPS   RS    10 WEEK     A/D
LGTO         09/01/98        40.00      48.75            99      99     +18
A


With CANSLIM and CANSLIM POTENTIAL (within 15% of new high), stocks are
usually picked when they reach a New High(NH) along with meeting the other
criteria.  They are sold when they fall 8% from their highest closing price or
going 20% above the buying price.  Of course, it is not sold if the stock is
on a good incline.  General guidelines are:


COMPANY:------------------------------------------------Usually an American
company
EXCHANGE:-----------------------------------------------NYSE or NASDAQ
usually
CURRENT PRICE:----------------------------------------over $15
COMPANY PROFILE:-----------------------------------Should be on the boards
for at least two years and in one of the leading industries.
OUTSTANDING SHARES:------------------------------5m-40m
EPS RANK:----------------------------------------------->87
RELATIVE STRENGTH RANK:------------------------>87
ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RANK:-----------Usually A, sometimes B
SPONSORSHIP RANK:---------------------------------A or B
GROUP STRENGTH RANK:----------------------------Usually A, sometimes B
DEBT PERCENTAGE:-----------------------------------<35
MANAGEMENT OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE:------usually 25-50
RETURN OF EQUITY PERCENTAGE:----------------->20 usually
PE RATIO:----------------------------------------------->15 but depends on
industry
THREE YEAR ANNUAL GROWTH RATE:------------>+25%
LAST QUARTER EPS:---------------------------------->+70%
PRIOR QUARTER EPS:--------------------------------->+25% usually
LAST QUARTER SALES:------------------------------>+25% usually
PERCENT ABOVE 10-WEEK AVERAGE PRICE:----anywhere on the + side
VOLUME--------------------------------------------------Usually above the
10 week average.
---------------------

Q&A With William O'Neil


Q&A With William O'Neil

How To Buy At Just The Right Moment

Last week, William O'Neil began his discussion of how to spot sound price
patterns, such as the ''cup with handle.''
    In this installment, IBD's chairman and founder looks at other common
bases. Why are they so important? Quality stocks typically form these same
patterns before they go on to make big gains.
    Q:When did you realize the importance of reading charts?
     O'Neil:  I first discovered how critical charts were in 1959, one year
after I became a stockbroker. At that time, there was one specific mutual fund
that happened to be outperforming all others. I got a weekly chart book and
posted from prospectuses and quarterly reports where, price-wise, the fund
purchased every new stock during the prior two years. I discovered something
very important.
    What I learned was so startling, it simply changed my whole view about how
to pick winning stocks. Every single one of the approximately 100 new stocks
the fund purchased was bought only after it bolted into new high ground in
price! For example, if a stock had fluctuated back and forth between $40 and
$50 for three to six months, this No. 1 fund only bought when the stock made a
new high at $51.

Now let's stop and think about this concept for a moment. This idea of buying
a stock at the highest price it has ever sold as it is coming out of a correct
basing area (I talked about one common pattern, the ''cup with handle'' last
week) seems ludicrous. After all, most of us were raised with the idea of
getting a deal, a bargain. I'm here to shatter a common and comfortable
misconception.

What applies to buying a car or a dress works in the completely opposite way
when dealing with stocks. You want stocks that have the greatest potential of
moving even higher. So, you've got to ignore the erroneous old saying, ''buy
low and sell high,'' and replace it with ''buy high and sell a lot higher.''

It's all a matter of perspective. Look back at a huge winner like Cisco
Systems.csco From its original new-high pivot point of $30 in October '90
through today, it has increased an incredible 15,596%. The original pivot
point

was actually low. It simply seemed high because its price history was all that
was known at that time. The incredible gains to come were not yet visible.

Q:What are some other price patterns that emerge before stocks take off?

O'Neil:  In addition to the common ''cup with handle'' pattern, see page A5
for an
example of a ''double bottom'' chart pattern with American Power
Conversion.APCC

American Power's 39-week pattern looks like a large letter ''W.'' The midpoint
of the W at C should be below the high at point A, the beginning of the
pattern. A to B is the first bottom in the letter W, B to C is the midpoint
and C to D represents the second leg down and second bottom in the W.

Normally, the second leg down will drop slightly below the absolute low of the
first bottom at point B. This serves as a shakeout and helps scare out the
last few weak holders. D to E is the last leg up in the W and E, F, and G
forms a short handle.

The correct buy point is at $22 at point G as the stock breaks through the
peak price of the handle (point E). Note the high increase in weekly trading
volume at the bottom of the chart when the stock moves up.

The stock at the buy point had an Earnings Per Share rank of 99, a Relative
Price Strength of 95, a return on equity of 53.8% and a 25% pretax profit
margin. It advanced 800% in the following 22 months from point G, which at
that time must have looked very high and scary. Notice also the big volume on
the price run up from $18 to $22 at point C.

One last observation: The last three weeks of December and the first week in
January, the stock closed in a very tight range around $17 and the volume
dried up to the lowest level in the entire base. Most people will never spot
this, but it is usually a sign of professional accumulation (buying).

Q:Any other price patterns to look for?

O'Neil:  Another common base is the flat base. It usually occurs after a stock
has
formed a ''cup with handle'' and has then continued to move up. Simply, the
price pattern moves straight sideways and holds tight for at least five weeks
and normally only corrects 8% to 12%. At the end of this type of pattern, a
new pivot point is established, giving you an additional chance to buy.

You want to buy a stock exactly at its pivot buy point as it breaks out of a
sound pattern. Don't chase it up more than 5% past its pivot. If you do, you
will be buying ''extended'' and your risk of being shaken out on a normal
price correction or pullback will increase.

Q:What are some mistakes you can make in reading charts, and are there
''faulty'' base patterns?

O'Neil:  1. Short bases of one, two, three or four weeks in duration are very
risky
and usually fail  avoid them.

2. Patterns that are abnormally wide or loose in overall appearance are more
risky. It's safer to buy tighter, better contained patterns with less wild
price fluctuations.

3. Stocks that shoot up straight from the bottom of a pattern into new highs
without any pullbacks or handles are risky and frequently have sharp sell-
offs.

4. A base breakout with no real increase in volume should be avoided.

5. Laggard bases. The last stock in a group to break out to a new high is weak
and a laggard. It should be passed up.

6. Handle areas that are too wide and loose (down 20% to 30%) or handles that
wedge upward along their lows rather than drifting down along the lows are
faulty and frequently may fail. Once you learn to read a chart book and
correctly recognize stocks with sound base patterns that are under
accumulation (professional buying) and possess all of the fundamental earnings
criteria we mentioned early in this series, your stock selection and
performance should improve significantly. Next week, I will explore a list of
important rules regarding charts I've learned through the years.

Looking for a previous installment of William O'Neil's series: ''26 Weeks To
Investment Success''? Just log on to to the World Wide Web and point your
browser to www.investors.com.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 4 Week Performance
Date: 20 Sep 1998 21:52:08 -0400

<bold><underline>4 Week Group Performance Tabulations:

</underline></bold>

<bold><underline><bigger>Best 4 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank    Group                      Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param># 1    Metal Ores-Gold/Silver    3.7
96        132

# 2    Utility-Electric Power    2.9          8          9

# 3    Retail-Drug Stores        2.8          1          3

# 4    Utility-Gas Distribution    2.4         29         44

# 5    Tobacco            2.3         85        114

# 6    Medical-Hlth Maint Org    2.2        149        168

# 7    Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated    1.2         63         22

# 8    Electrical-Connectors    1.2        134         96

# 9    Transportation-Rail        0.7        145        150

#10    Comml Svcs-Linen Supply    0.6         43         28


</color><bold><underline><bigger>Worst 4 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>4Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank    Group                       Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188    Telecommunctns-Cellulr    -18.5
25         15

#189    Retail-Consumer Elect    -19.7        137         12

#190    Finance-Investment Mgmt    -19.8        152        105

#191    Retail/Whlsle-Office Supl    -20.1         97         85

#192    Retail-Discount&Variety    -20.4        168        145

#193    Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds    -20.4        155        149

#194    Computer-Graphics        -21.2        182        175

#195    Finance-Investment Bkrs    -21.8        107        107

#196    Banks-Money Center        -25.3        187        179

#197    Computer Softwr-Internet    -40.1         12          5


</color>FWIW,

Frank Wolynski





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups - 1 Week Performance
Date: 20 Sep 1998 21:52:02 -0400

<bold><underline>1 Week Group Performance Tabulations:

</underline></bold>

<bold><underline><bigger>Best 1 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank     Group                      Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param># 1    Medical-Nursing
Homes    8.3        183        193

# 2    Transportation-Airline    6.8        139        170

# 3    Computer Softwr-Med        6.8         57         94

# 4    Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel    6.7         10         25

# 5    Computer Softwr-Internet    6.1         12          5

# 6    Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund    5.9          9         27

# 7    Insurance-Diversified    5.6         87         87

# 8    Medical-Outpnt/Hm Care    5.5        179        195

# 9    Financial Services-Misc    5.3         55         84

#10    Bldg-Hand Tools        5.3        101        104

<fontfamily><param>Arial</param>

</fontfamily></color><bold><underline><bigger>Worst 1 Week Performance:

</bigger></underline></bold>1Wk                             Percentage
This Week     Last Week

Rank    Group                       Gain       IBD Ranking   IBD Ranking

<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>#188    Household-Housewares        -2.4        156        142

#189    Container-Metal/Glass    -2.5        165        165

#190    Metal Ores-Gold/Silver    -2.5         96        132

#191    Machinery-Farm        -2.6        196        191

#192    Computer Softwr-Security    -2.8        185        181

#193    Food-Meat Products        -3.1         13        143 (weird)

#194    Computer-Graphics        -3.8        182        175

#195    Metal-Steel Pipe & Tube    -4.2        189        185

#196    Auto Mfrs-Foreign        -4.6         98         55

#197    Soap & Clng Preparatns    -5.8         86         41


</color>FWIW,

Frank Wolynski




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting Reading
Date: 20 Sep 1998 21:43:12 -0400


Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
September 21, 1998

Impeachment, Japan, and a Hunger for Crisis

President Clinton is running out of room to maneuver.  Forty-six
percent of respondents to a poll published in the current issue
of Newsweek think that Clinton should consider resigning.  Over
60 percent want public censure, an unprecedented step.  Less than
a third want Clinton to remain in office without any punishment.
We have reached an extreme point, where Clinton must regard those
who favor censure but not impeachment to be among his strongest
supporters.  When you are counting among your supporters those
who are calling for your public humiliation, it is time to
reexamine your options.  Clinton is running out of them, but he
has one big one left: foreign policy, particularly the
international financial crisis.

This week, the Asian economic meltdown and the impeachment debate
are converging, creating a crisis and an opportunity.  The
crisis: On Monday, Clinton's videotaped grand jury testimony will
be made public.  This will, in all likelihood, intensify pressure
on the president, because the Republicans would not be releasing
the testimony so eagerly if it were not harmful to Clinton.  The
opportunity: On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi
will be meeting with Clinton.

At this point, Clinton's defense has been reduced to three
arguments.  First, while it is true that he lied in essence, he
is arguing that he did not lie in the narrowly legal sense of the
term.  Because he did not break the law, he should not be
impeached.  Second, his supporters are arguing that even if he
did lie under oath, it was a lie about sex.  Sex is a private
matter and lying about such matters is common and natural.
Therefore, lying under oath about private sexual matters is
understandable and does not constitute a sufficiently grave
offense as to justify impeachment.  Clinton's final line of
defense is the most important: Even if he did violate the law,
this argument goes, he is doing such a splendid job in all other
respects that no reasonable person should want to see him removed
from office.

This last line of defense depends on public perception, and is
reflected in his job approval rating in the polls.  Clinton has
used his job approval rating as the ultimate argument against
impeachment.  Therefore, maintaining the job approval rating has
become mission critical to his presidency.  Now, it is possible
to argue that he is doing a good job as president, but that he
should still be impeached if he breaks the law, and this view is
gradually being manifested in the polls.  However, should his job
approval rating decline dramatically, then all would be lost.
Clinton must continue to be seen as doing a good job.  Thus, the
key question is this: What constitutes doing a good job?

"It's the economy, stupid."  This has been his strength.  It is
now potentially a catastrophic weakness.  There appears to be an
international economic crisis of epic proportions that seems to
be affecting the U.S. economy.  The U.S. stock markets have been
sharply hit of late.  A cyclical downturn is overdue, at least in
the simple sense of the length of the current economic expansion.
Clinton does not appear to have a policy for dealing with this.

Now, such a downturn may not be due to Asia and it may not be
under Clinton's control, and the worst solution of all may be a
Washington-generated policy trying to solve the world's economic
problems.  But Clinton's problem is that he who lives by myth,
dies by myth.  Having unfairly taken credit for America's
economic well-being, he will now unfairly be blamed for America's
economic problems.  Inevitably, economic and market weakness will
eat into his ratings, collapsing his last line of defense.  Thus,
the pressure to appear to be doing something decisive about the
economy is growing irresistible to a man not known for his
ability to resist temptation.

Enter Japan's Prime Minister Obuchi, fresh from his country's
latest failure to create a workable solution to its economic
crisis.  After weeks of trying to pass legislation for dealing
with the mass of bad debts accumulated by the Japanese banking
system, itself merely a symptom of much deeper problems, the Diet
finally passed a bill last Friday.  Like all of its predecessors,
the bill was designed to give the appearance of action rather
than to constitute action.  It was designed to avoid contact with
reality rather than to grapple with it.

Even accepting the fact that Japanese politics have become as
bankrupt and gridlocked as the Japanese economy, the Diet's
actions were breathtaking.  On the eve of a critical summit with
the U.S., the Diet knowingly produced a bill that would
demonstrate not Japan's intention to solve its own problems but
its utter inability to do so.  Because no real pressure was
exerted from any quarter and the Japanese are not stupid, they
clearly understand both what they are doing and how it may appear
to the rest of the world.  And because Japan is no longer even
pretending very hard that it is doing anything to solve the
problem, we are left to wonder what the Japanese have in mind,
since we are quite sure that they have much in mind, appearances
notwithstanding.

Consider the obvious solution.  Japan can force its banks to
liquidate their debts, contracting their capital base, cutting
available credit, and creating a new wave of bankruptcies.  This
will bring about a dramatic restructuring of the Japanese
economy, similar to what happened in the U.S. several years ago.
While this will be incredibly painful, with unprecedented high
unemployment and interest rates, in the long run Japan will
emerge stronger and more competitive.  Alternatively, the
Japanese government can absorb the bad debts, print money to
cover them, and inflate its way out of the problem.  This is a
much worse solution, but it is a solution.  The problem with both
of these solutions is politics.  It is unlikely that the Liberal
Democratic Party and the Japanese political system as currently
constituted could survive the stresses and strains implicit in
this strategy.  So, Japan has a domestic solution available, but
it is extremely painful and politically unacceptable.

Therefore, Japan has decided on another strategy:
Internationalize its banking crisis.  Japan is not merely
avoiding action.  Whether by design or by accident, it is
exporting its problems.  Take, for example, interest rates.  Low
interest rates reduce bankruptcies and have their justifications,
but Japan's interest rates are insane.  The 10-year Japanese
government bond currently carries a yield of less that 0.7
percent (That's not "seven" percent; that's "zero-point-seven"
percent).  As a result, money continues to leave Japan while
foreign investment avoids Japan like the plague.

All of this weakens the yen.  Now, a weak yen helps Japan's
exports, but it also places enormous pressure on other Asian
economies.  Low Japanese interest rates strike directly at
China's ability to maintain the yuan.  Indeed, the Chinese have
been quite bitter at Japanese policies for their effect on China,
and have been intensifying currency controls of late in order to
minimize the effect of the yen's general weakness.  Everything
that Japan has done has had the effect of increasing the strain
on the international system.  That appears bizarre until you
think about it.

Japan has two goals.  First, it wants to get out of this economic
mess.  Second, it wants to do so without making fundamental
changes to its society, economy, or political system.  Any
solution it devises will require fundamental changes.  If,
however, Japan can convince others to underwrite the restoration
of its financial system, it can save itself without fundamental
change.  The key is to convince others that they have no choice
but to absorb the cost of bailing Japan out.  That isn't easy to
do.  However, if the Japanese can convince the world, and
particularly the U.S., that (a) Japan is incapable of solving its
problems and (b) Japan's inability to do so will wreck the
international economic system (and America's), then the rest of
the world will have no choice but to act.

The solution would look something like this.  Instead of the
Japanese government creating a new entity, similar to the
Resolution Trust Corporation that managed the collapsed savings-
and-loan system in the U.S., the IMF or a new agency funded by
international capital would buy up bad loans in Japan.  This
would allow Japanese banks to restructure their balance sheets
without forcing a fundamental shift in fiscal and monetary policy
in Japan.  In short, the rest of the world, mostly the U.S. with
some European help, would pay for Japanese mismanagement.
Because Japan's fabled bureaucracy would still be in place,
inevitably, formal international controls on the Japanese banking
system would be informally thwarted, leaving Japan looking much
like it did before, with foreigners carrying the burden of
Japanese mismanagement.

Why would anyone agree to this?  If the Japanese can convince the
world of points (a) and (b) above, then, in a massive game of
international financial chicken, the country with the most to
lose, the U.S., will have no choice but to save Japan from
itself.  Because Japan doesn't have many other choices, it has
little to lose in following this strategy.

Of late, the Japanese have managed to threaten the U.S. without
doing so openly.  On Friday, Prime Minister Obuchi said, "I have
decided that the world's second largest economy, Japan, should
not become the source of the global financial meltdown."  Now,
because the legislation he was announcing would have absolutely
no impact on the course of that meltdown, what he was really
saying was, "If things go on this way, Japan will cause a global
economic meltdown.  Japan is not going to do a single thing to
avert this meltdown.  If you don't believe me, just look at this
legislation.  So, if you don't want a global meltdown, you'd
better do something."  And with that, he got on the plane to
visit the U.S.

As our regular readers should be aware, we are not of the opinion
that the Asian crisis is causing a global meltdown.  Russia's
problems have nothing whatever to do with Asia.  Latin America's
problems are only marginally linked to Asia's, and are far less
structural.  The European and American situations are quite
separate from Asia's problems.  But it is in Japan's urgent
interest to convince the Western community that there is a global
crisis, and saving Japan will avert that crisis.  Unfortunately
for Japan, its subtle assertion that it is more in the world's
interest to save Japan than it is in Japan's interest to save
itself is not persuasive.  Normally, such an assertion would go
nowhere.

The problem today is that Bill Clinton badly needs a crisis to
solve.  In fact, he needs to save the world.  Obuchi has tried
very hard to give Clinton the opportunity to appear to be saving
the world.  The question is whether Clinton will seize the
opportunity.  Thus, two political cripples are meeting this week
to discuss the future of the international financial system.
Clinton set the stage for the meeting last week, when he
announced the need for a global economic conference to solve the
problems posed by the Asian meltdown.  Interestingly, Alan
Greenspan tried to diffuse Clinton's initiative by making it
clear that he was not even in favor of a global interest rate
cut, let alone more concerted international action.
Nevertheless, Clinton badly needs to be seen as a decisive
political leader.

Thus, the danger this week is that Clinton's political weakness
will tempt him into playing Obuchi's game.  Clinton's need for a
sweeping and decisive gesture, to convince the public that he is
indispensable, will lead him to be sorely tempted by Obuchi's
desire to create an international solution to Japan's, and
Asia's, economic problems.  In our view, the U.S. can no more
solve Japan's problems than it could solve Russia's.  Japan's
problems are deep, structural, and of Japan's own making.  The
solutions must be deep, structural, and Japan's responsibility.
Moreover, it is our view that the U.S. is far less threatened by
a Japanese meltdown than Japan would like the U.S. to believe.
Internationalization will merely further postpone Japan's day of
reckoning, while actually increasing U.S. exposure to the
consequences of delay.

Whether we are correct on this point or not, the pressure on
Clinton to allow Obuchi's worldview to dominate the meeting is
intense.  Whether there is a solution, and whether the U.S.
should shoulder the burden for the solution, may turn out to be
less material than Clinton's need to make it appear that he alone
has the solution, and that without that solution, and without
Clinton, the world faces a disaster.

Obuchi, in an interview with the Washington Post on Sunday,
turned up the pressure on Clinton, or gave him more ammunition,
depending on how you look at it.  Obuchi said that Japan had
tried every solution and that the only remedy left might be to
build up a "wartime economy," with increased defense spending
leading the way to new jobs and industrial growth.  Coming after
Japan's very public panic over North Korean missile tests, Obuchi
is signaling the U.S. that the only option under its control is
the return of Japanese militarism.  If the U.S. doesn't want
that, then it is up to the U.S. to solve Japan's problems.

A strong president would refuse all assistance to Japan, at least
until the Japanese themselves show their willingness to make
painful decisions.  In ordinary times, Bill Clinton could do this
and still appear decisive, taking advantage of his willingness to
confront Japan as evidence of his will.  But these are not
ordinary times, and a show of will in private meetings will not
affect Monday's release of Clinton's grand jury testimony.  If
those tapes kick off a firestorm, Clinton may look at his meeting
with Obuchi as his last chance to save his presidency, by
appearing to save the world.

It has been said that this is a crisis of character.  This week
will be the ultimate test of Clinton's character.  If he can
resist the temptation to play Obuchi's game, he may finally show
that he has character.  Paradoxically, that very show of
character might throw away a final chance to save his presidency.
___________________________________________________

To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at
http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to [e-mail]







-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55
Date: 21 Sep 1998 03:24:42 GMT

On Fri, 18 Sep 1998 15:57:09 -0400, you wrote:

:Are the small caps going to lead us back up?  Or is this a one day =
wonder?
:
Craig:

The small caps have been so beat up that it will take a lot more than
one extraordinary day to indicate that this is a signal that they are
finally coming to life. I hope the day will not be long, and I know if
will not escape out attention when it does come. However, it may be a
long way in the offing. I have been watching for it. Haven't given up,
but have become resigned to the fact that it may be a long time.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From Daily Graphs
Date: 21 Sep 1998 03:27:38 GMT

On Sun, 20 Sep 1998 09:25:58 -0400, you wrote:

:Stocks in the DG books that hit new highs last week totaled a meager
:61. Of these the ones with an RS/EPS of 80/80 or better and an A/D of
:A or B were as follows:
:
:AGN, ASGN, LGTO, LLY, PAYX, GILTF, MNMD, ABCW, DV, PHYS, TNSI, APCC,
:GPSI, PEG, PBI, BEI, UFS, JKHY, NLCS, CVD, and MDU.
:
:I have not yet looked at the charts or done any homework on these.
:You're on your own.
:
:Tom W
:
I've seen it mentioned on this newslist that most of the new highs you
see these days are the result of a takeover or takeover bid. New lows
have been outnumbering new highs something like 10 to one for quite a
spell now (something like a couple of months).

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interesting Reading
Date: 21 Sep 1998 06:28:13 -0400

Thanks, Frank. A most provocative and thoughtful article. I share the
author's concerns over the character of the President and whether he
can withstand the Japanese implied blackmail when he is already
weakened and desperate to do something "Presidential".

I encourage all members, especially those in the USA but also those
elsewhere in the globe, to take the time to read this lengthy article
in its entirety.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>Subject: Clinton and Japan Must read
>
>Global Intelligence Update
>Red Alert
>September 21, 1998
>
>Impeachment, Japan, and a Hunger for Crisis
>
>President Clinton is running out of room to maneuver.  Forty-six
>percent of respondents to a poll published in the current issue
>of Newsweek think that Clinton should consider resigning.  Over
>60 percent want public censure, an unprecedented step.  Less than
>a third want Clinton to remain in office without any punishment.
>We have reached an extreme point, where Clinton must regard those
>who favor censure but not impeachment to be among his strongest
>supporters.  When you are counting among your supporters those
>who are calling for your public humiliation, it is time to
>reexamine your options.  Clinton is running out of them, but he
>has one big one left: foreign policy, particularly the
>international financial crisis.
>
>This week, the Asian economic meltdown and the impeachment debate
>are converging, creating a crisis and an opportunity.  The
>crisis: On Monday, Clinton's videotaped grand jury testimony will
>be made public.  This will, in all likelihood, intensify pressure
>on the president, because the Republicans would not be releasing
>the testimony so eagerly if it were not harmful to Clinton.  The
>opportunity: On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi
>will be meeting with Clinton.
>
(rest snipped but well worth reading)




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From Daily Graphs
Date: 21 Sep 1998 04:11:19 -0700

At least 4 of the stocks on Tom's list are making new highs all by their
little
ol' selves: LGTO, PAYX, JKHY, MNMD. I'd add SUT as a decent CANSLIM pick which
is also within shotgun range of it's 52-week high. CPWR, DELL, and SBL are
also
close-ish (within 25%).

At 03:27 AM 9/21/98 +0000, you wrote:
>On Sun, 20 Sep 1998 09:25:58 -0400, you wrote:
>
>:Stocks in the DG books that hit new highs last week totaled a meager
>:61. Of these the ones with an RS/EPS of 80/80 or better and an A/D of
>:A or B were as follows:
>:
>:AGN, ASGN, LGTO, LLY, PAYX, GILTF, MNMD, ABCW, DV, PHYS, TNSI, APCC,
>:GPSI, PEG, PBI, BEI, UFS, JKHY, NLCS, CVD, and MDU.
>:
>:I have not yet looked at the charts or done any homework on these.
>:You're on your own.
>:
>:Tom W
>:
>I've seen it mentioned on this newslist that most of the new highs you
>see these days are the result of a takeover or takeover bid. New lows
>have been outnumbering new highs something like 10 to one for quite a
>spell now (something like a couple of months).
>
>Dan
>[e-mail]
>

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting Reading
Date: 21 Sep 1998 07:25:08 -0500 (CDT)

Thanks, Frank, it was interesting and frightening,
but realistic.  Decisive historical moments have
been made influenced by a quirk of personality,
a character flaw, a political and/or personal
"life saver", even prejudice, opinions, and so
on.

Emotions, rather than facts, rule decisions on
many levels, including the market and politics.
The following quote is from "Men, Stress and
Vietnam" by Peter Bourne.

    The overwhelming desire for the
    success of politics to which a strong
    emotional attachment has been made
    also leads to an attempt to alter
    those facts over which one has control,
    making them consistent at a magical
    level that events over which one has
    no control will then also fall into
    the desired pattern.

Appreciate the post and the link.
Mary Keener



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Investment Advice - NonCANSLIM
Date: 21 Sep 1998 13:19:26 GMT

On Wed, 16 Sep 1998 08:08:12 -0500 (CDT), you wrote:

:Dean Edwards,
:
:Excellent post.  Much needed by me and possibly
:others.
:
:Does O'Neil mention the books he finds the best,
:besides Baruch's autobiography?
:
:Mary Keener
:
WON has indicated that over 2000 investment books have passed across
his desk or found their way into his library. The titles presented
here are already a sifted and resifted representation of the best. I
do recall him specifically mentioning:

How To Trade In Stocks - J. Livermore=20

Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator - E. Lefevre=20

And, possibly Loeb.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL
Date: 21 Sep 1998 09:52:29 -0400

Ari Lawson wrote:

> According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American
> conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow
> Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American
> conference.FWIW.

(Did they loose?)


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Craig Griffin <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] BRCM
Date: 21 Sep 1998 13:49:20 -0400

Worth a look today.  May be leaving station.

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: robert urban <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] BRCM
Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:23:02 -0500

What  does  through  group  think  of  the  "pattern"  of  BRCM  as  an  example  of
of  a   double  bottom  and  a  ?breakout?  dru


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL
Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:38:24 -0800

Date sent:          Mon, 21 Sep 1998 09:52:29 -0400

> > According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American
> > conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow
> > Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American
> > conference.FWIW.
>
> (Did they loose?)

Denver won, which broke a long stretch of NFC teams winning, and
hence foretold all of the market difficulties we are experiencing this
year ;)



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM
Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:50:13 -0800



> What  does  through  group  think  of  the  "pattern"  of  BRCM  as  an  example  of
> of  a   double  bottom  and  a  ?breakout?  dru

Does seem to have formed a double bottom.  You could also say
that it has formed a very rough cup, and now is at the point where it
might form a handle sort of thing.

A few weeks ago Business Week had an article about BRCM,
sounds like they are loaded with brainpower anyway, 43 PhD's,
along with the two guys who are running the thing.  I am wondering
if this stock might be another ASND type thing, where you can buy
it and hold for a couple of years and double or triple your money (or
more maybe).




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM
Date: 21 Sep 1998 18:56:14 -0700

It could be due to the long hiatus in CANSLIM breakouts, but I thought we had
worked out that the CANSLI stats would be posted with any possible "breakout"
notification...

At 06:23 PM 9/21/98 -0500, you wrote:
>What  does  through  group  think  of  the  "pattern"  of  BRCM  as  an
example  of
>of  a   double  bottom  and  a  ?breakout?  dru
>

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM
Date: 21 Sep 1998 19:30:59 -0700 (PDT)

<<What  does  through  group  think  of  the  "pattern"  of  BRCM  as
an
example  of  a   double  bottom  and  a  ?breakout?  dru>>

I read somewhere that the second leg of the W shouldn't undercut the
first by more than 3-4%.  I don't know if this is true or not, but it
makes sense.  All you really need is enough to shake out weak hands.
In any case, notice the pause and subsequent breakout from the
midpoint of the W.  However, as with CVD, it could just as easily fall
back to or through support due to market conditions.

IMO, this is a market for daytraders only.

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BRCM
Date: 21 Sep 1998 20:04:56 -0700

GMSTF also has a doulbe-bottom chart which is pretty darn scary looking, but
nonetheless broke out today on @1.7x ADV to a new high. Data presented in my
Killer CASLI scan results last week. I too will not buy it or any other stock
until this mess wears itself out. Things are definitely improving; some bases
are forming and some never let up (i.e. PAYX, LGTO, JKHY).

At 07:30 PM 9/21/98 -0700, you wrote:
><<What  does  through  group  think  of  the  "pattern"  of  BRCM  as
>an
>example  of  a   double  bottom  and  a  ?breakout?  dru>>
>
>I read somewhere that the second leg of the W shouldn't undercut the
>first by more than 3-4%.  I don't know if this is true or not, but it
>makes sense.  All you really need is enough to shake out weak hands.
>In any case, notice the pause and subsequent breakout from the
>midpoint of the W.  However, as with CVD, it could just as easily fall
>back to or through support due to market conditions.
>
>IMO, this is a market for daytraders only.
>
>--Db
>
>
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>
Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Walter Stock" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only
Date: 22 Sep 1998 14:18:19 PDT

> IMO, this is a market for daytraders only.
>
> --Db


Agreed.  I think that this is a very dangerous market.
Too many phony rallies and headfakes for me to buy equities
on anything but daytrades.

The Clinton mess tends to obscure the greater danger, which
is the perilous state of the Japanese banking system and markets.
One bell-weather that I am watching closely is the LTCB ( the Long Term
Credit Bank in Japan), one of their big banks.  It is the one most likely
to slip under the waves first.

Under the previous administration,  Japanese authorities had been
"encouraging"  it to merge with Sumitomo bank under what is called
the "convoy" system.   Translation:  the Ministry of Finance had been
dragging a kicking and screaming Sumitomo towards absorbing LTCB,
debts and all.  There had been later fruitless plans to set up
a bridge bank as well.

Under the new administration, recently the plan has changed yet again: =
this
time towards using public money to bail LTCB out.  This has run into a =
political
stone wall.  So as of this moment on Tuesday,  there is no workable plan
in place to merge/rescue/bridge/mercy-kill  this bank.

Why should we care?   Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming
due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to =
see
how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance.  Friday could
be an exciting day.

In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds,
and my trading account is 100% cash.

Walter Stock
Oakville, ONT - Canada




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Walter Stock" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only
Date: 22 Sep 1998 15:34:09 PDT

I am currently in a trading lull, and am taking full advantage
of the extra time to return to my university roots in economics
(a.k.a.  non-M noise).

Dusted off several dozen textbooks, noted with alarm
how rusty my algebra and calculus is getting, and returned
nevertheless to my first love, macro-economics.
(My wife and little boy arrived later on.)

Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of
my revered books.  References to inflation outnumber those to
deflation by 10 to 1.   Why ?   These texts were all written well
after World War Two,  where inflation has been the norm.

I decided to go back further in time and bring out my heavy artillery... =

Milton Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960",
in 860 magnificent pages (including dozens of charts).
This well-worn book is one of my favorites for casual reading...
had it on my nightstand prior to O'Neill and Elder.

As I had remembered, deflation was very common prior to World War Two,
especially in peace time.  It is fairly well known that for the first yea=
rs
of the Great Depression in the 1930's deflation was the norm.

Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation
held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity.
We call it the Industrial Revolution.

So there have been times of "good" deflation and of "bad" deflation.
The media, as usual,  get it wrong when they hold up deflation as
always being an evil.   The question is, if deflation comes to North
America, will it be the wrong kind this time?

Well if deflation in North America results from a collapse in demand
for goods and services (as seen already in Asia), then deflation
will be very bad indeed.

If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know.

Walter Stock
Oakville, ONT - Canada
e-mail:  [e-mail]









-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM]
Date: 22 Sep 1998 21:37:23 +0200

YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days,
after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through
butter.

What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and
can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.

Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :)

To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist.

This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies.

AMGN
LLY
ANF
ANN
APCC
ASDV
ATI
BLS
BMCS
BMET
BRG
CPWR
DRTE
EMC
SWY
UMG
USCS
GNE
AEH
PPDI
CVD
FISV
GEOC
GPSI
GVA
LSON
LZB
METG
MNMD
NTAP
PAYX
PRGN
RX
INC
MEDQ


Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks.



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Walter Stock" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only
Date: 22 Sep 1998 14:18:19 PDT

> IMO, this is a market for daytraders only.
>
> --Db


Agreed.  I think that this is a very dangerous market.
Too many phony rallies and headfakes for me to buy equities
on anything but daytrades.

The Clinton mess tends to obscure the greater danger, which
is the perilous state of the Japanese banking system and markets.
One bell-weather that I am watching closely is the LTCB ( the Long Term
Credit Bank in Japan), one of their big banks.  It is the one most likely
to slip under the waves first.

Under the previous administration,  Japanese authorities had been
"encouraging"  it to merge with Sumitomo bank under what is called
the "convoy" system.   Translation:  the Ministry of Finance had been
dragging a kicking and screaming Sumitomo towards absorbing LTCB,
debts and all.  There had been later fruitless plans to set up
a bridge bank as well.

Under the new administration, recently the plan has changed yet again: =
this
time towards using public money to bail LTCB out.  This has run into a =
political
stone wall.  So as of this moment on Tuesday,  there is no workable plan
in place to merge/rescue/bridge/mercy-kill  this bank.

Why should we care?   Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming
due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to =
see
how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance.  Friday could
be an exciting day.

In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds,
and my trading account is 100% cash.

Walter Stock
Oakville, ONT - Canada




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Squires <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]
Date: 22 Sep 1998 15:45:39 -0400

Johan,

I am equally amazed. I love the action in YHOO. But the volume is not enough to
pull the trigger. Let's hope it forms a nice handle here and then moves out on
heavy volume.

DCSquires

Johan Van Houtven wrote:

> YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days,
> after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through
> butter.
>
> What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and
> can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.
>
> Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :)
>
> To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist.
>
> This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies.
>
> AMGN
> LLY
> ANF
> ANN
> APCC
> ASDV
> ATI
> BLS
> BMCS
> BMET
> BRG
> CPWR
> DRTE
> EMC
> SWY
> UMG
> USCS
> GNE
> AEH
> PPDI
> CVD
> FISV
> GEOC
> GPSI
> GVA
> LSON
> LZB
> METG
> MNMD
> NTAP
> PAYX
> PRGN
> RX
> INC
> MEDQ
>
> Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks.
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
> -
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only
Date: 22 Sep 1998 13:13:53 -0700 (PDT)



Thought provoking post, Walter.

"Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation
held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity.
We call it the Industrial Revolution."



So what is the cause of this type of posperity?  Is it that technology
revolutionalizes types of goods and services available to people?
People can afford things that were not possible previously because
they were too expensive or not invented yet?  That efficiency and
innovation are cost effective?  That people whose jobs are displaced
by technology
can learn the skills necessary to adapt and upgrade their lives?
TM
TM



---Walter Stock <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> I am currently in a trading lull, and am taking full advantage
> of the extra time to return to my university roots in economics
> (a.k.a.  non-M noise).
>
> Dusted off several dozen textbooks, noted with alarm
> how rusty my algebra and calculus is getting, and returned
> nevertheless to my first love, macro-economics.
> (My wife and little boy arrived later on.)
>
> Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of
> my revered books.  References to inflation outnumber those to
> deflation by 10 to 1.   Why ?   These texts were all written well
> after World War Two,  where inflation has been the norm.
>
> I decided to go back further in time and bring out my heavy
artillery...
> Milton Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960",
> in 860 magnificent pages (including dozens of charts).




> This well-worn book is one of my favorites for casual reading...
> had it on my nightstand prior to O'Neill and Elder.
>
> As I had remembered, deflation was very common prior to World War Two,
> especially in peace time.  It is fairly well known that for the
first years
> of the Great Depression in the 1930's deflation was the norm.
>
> Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation
> held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity.
> We call it the Industrial Revolution.
>
> So there have been times of "good" deflation and of "bad" deflation.
> The media, as usual,  get it wrong when they hold up deflation as
> always being an evil.   The question is, if deflation comes to North
> America, will it be the wrong kind this time?
>
> Well if deflation in North America results from a collapse in demand
> for goods and services (as seen already in Asia), then deflation
> will be very bad indeed.
>
> If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know.
>
> Walter Stock
> Oakville, ONT - Canada
> e-mail:  [e-mail]
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]
Date: 22 Sep 1998 13:28:39 -0700

On 12:37 PM 9/22/98 , Johan Van Houtven Said:
>APCC
>CPWR
>MNMD
>NTAP
>PAYX

What I left above has at least some to most of the CANSLIM characteristics...


Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

mailto:[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anindo Majumdar <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]
Date: 22 Sep 1998 13:38:45 -0700 (PDT)

 YHOO doesn't fit the CANSLIM profile as far as EPS is concerned but relative
strength has been outstanding. But then neither did AOL and AOL has been one
of the outstanding stocks of the decade.

Anindo
>
> YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days,
> after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through
> butter.
>
> What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and
> can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.
>
> Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :)
>
> To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist.
>
> This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies.
>
> AMGN
> LLY
> ANF
> ANN
> APCC
> ASDV
> ATI
> BLS
> BMCS
> BMET
> BRG
> CPWR
> DRTE
> EMC
> SWY
> UMG
> USCS
> GNE
> AEH
> PPDI
> CVD
> FISV
> GEOC
> GPSI
> GVA
> LSON
> LZB
> METG
> MNMD
> NTAP
> PAYX
> PRGN
> RX
> INC
> MEDQ
>
>
> Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks.
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only
Date: 22 Sep 1998 18:29:08 -0400

At 02:18 PM 9/22/98 PDT, you wrote:
>
>Why should we care?   Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming
>due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to see
>how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance.  Friday could
>be an exciting day.
>
>In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds,
>and my trading account is 100% cash.
>
>Walter Stock
>Oakville, ONT - Canada
>

I've heard the amount of the banking mess in Japan exceeds by a factor of
10 the S&L crisis of the late 80's in the US.

Thanks for the post and the message regarding deflation.
I find the economics fascinating.

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Ari Lawson <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL
Date: 22 Sep 1998 22:37:44 -0400

The Denver Bronco's of the old American conference won the last
superbowl.

Tom Moulton wrote:

> Ari Lawson wrote:
>
> > According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American
> > conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow
> > Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American
> > conference.FWIW.
>
> (Did they loose?)
>
> -




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only
Date: 23 Sep 1998 12:06:04 GMT

Interesting post, Walter. My take on it is that the years of
significant deflation in the US (and probably Canada too) are history,
at least for the foreseeable future.  Just as much history as is the
industrial revolution. I think we will continue to see inflation in
this segment of the world economy, however it will be monitored and
tightly controlled similar to the way the Greenspan-led FOMA has been
policying for the last several years (how long has this run of
successful FOMA non-recessionary management been going on now? 20
years or so?). Of course, I could be wrong, and it would probably make
for more exciting times if the perturbations of the economic landscape
were greater, but I do not anticipate great oscillations in the US and
Canada in the foreseeable future.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Joan Sherman <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98
Date: 23 Sep 1998 09:31:40 -0400

Canslimmer's
   Did anyone read the Special Weekly Feature in the Monday issue of IBD about
"How Chart Patterns Lead To Big Profits"?
   WON shows a chart of American Power Conversion and points to the tight
range and dried volume during the Dec to early Jan time period.  Here he
states that "Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of
professional accumulation (buying)."
   Would some of you chart watchers care to expand on this explanation?
   Thanks,
Joan Sherman



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55
Date: 23 Sep 1998 14:04:10 GMT

On Fri, 18 Sep 1998 15:57:09 -0400, you wrote:

:Are the small caps going to lead us back up?  Or is this a one day =
wonder?
:
R2000 significantly outperformed the other US indexes again yesterday.
(Mon. 9/22) 2 day wonder or...??

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCANSLIM - MSPG
Date: 23 Sep 1998 08:15:49 -0700 (PDT)



MSPG is such a good example, not only of how chart patterns can be
helpful with or without the use of complex indicators (in this case,
without), but also of how one can tailor them to suit one's own risk
tolerance.

To begin with, until yesterday it had been forming an ascending right
triangle, flat highs and increasingly higher lows.  This is a bullish
pattern, though in this case it was lower than one would ordinarily
want.  In a more perfect world, it would have formed five points
higher at old resistance (which would also be slightly above the 50d).
 Most likely, however, it formed where it did because that level
represented a 50% retracement.  Note also the reduction in volume
throughout, and the gradual increase over the last three days.

In any case, it finally took off from there yesterday on not
particularly interesting volume.  The volume seems to be kicking in
today, propelling it through the 50d.  What will happen to it there is
anybody's guess, particularly since the Naz is so close to its 200d.

An aggressive trader might have bought it yesterday or the day before,
knowing full well that it might have trouble getting through the 50d.
In fact, he may have been reluctant to hold it overnight.  A real
hot-dogger, though, would probably have taken his chances and been
nicely rewarded today.

A more conservative trader would wait for the stock to penetrate the
50d and hold there, remembering--as I said--that the Naz is very close
to what should be strong resistance.  He might even wait for it to
base there, if only for a brief period of time, noting the probability
that he may run into trouble at the old high.

A more conservative trader/investor still would wait for a new high
and perhaps another base, even though he'd be giving up an already 50%
return.  OTOH, he'd have clear sailing ahead of him.  If MSPG is a
true winner, he'll have substantial rewards to look forward to, even
though he didn't buy "at the bottom".

Did I buy it?  No.  I never buy anything unless the market is behind
me.  And I definitely don't hold anything overnight unless the market
is behind me.  If we had already retested the lows, I would have
bought it like a shot.  As it is, it may very well retest its base if
the Naz can't get through its 200d.

Nonetheless, MSPG can teach one a lesson on how to balance chart
patterns, simple technical indicators, fundamentals, and risk
tolerance to arrive at a comfortable and rewarding choice.

--Db




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Steve Hilton <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" talk
Date: 23 Sep 1998 12:46:35 -0500

The market is up big today on speculation AG will say something about
cutting rates
next week.  Would he do this?  I'm thinking it is unlikely he will
consider cutting until
November.  Weren't they biased towards tightening at the last meeting?
Isn't this irrational
exhuberance?

We got another buy signal on the Naz yesterday, (up 1% on increasing
vol.).
I am skeptical about this signal (as I was the last) because of the
extremely weak
volume on Monday.

What do you Canslimmers think?

A lurker,

Steve

--
Steve Hilton                    email: [e-mail]
Motorola Inc.                   voice: [phone]
MS IL75/2J4                     fax:   [phone]
1475 W. Shure Dr., Arlington Heights, IL 60004




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" talk
Date: 23 Sep 1998 11:00:39 -0700

The speculation is that he will say something to congress at 2 PM ET today.
Right now in fact. Not next week. The Fed regular meeting is 9/28. I'll
predict
right now that he'll either say nothing or deny a rate cut and the maket will
close way off its intraday highs...

On 10:46 AM 9/23/98 , Steve Hilton Said:
>The market is up big today on speculation AG will say something about
>cutting rates
>next week.  Would he do this?  I'm thinking it is unlikely he will
>consider cutting until
>November.  Weren't they biased towards tightening at the last meeting?
>Isn't this irrational
>exhuberance?
>
>We got another buy signal on the Naz yesterday, (up 1% on increasing
>vol.).
>I am skeptical about this signal (as I was the last) because of the
>extremely weak
>volume on Monday.
>
>What do you Canslimmers think?
>
>A lurker,
>
>Steve
>
>--
>Steve Hilton                    email: [e-mail]
>Motorola Inc.                   voice: [phone]
>MS IL75/2J4                     fax:   [phone]
>1475 W. Shure Dr., Arlington Heights, IL 600


Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

mailto:[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]
Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:16:31 +0200

>This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies.

Some from the watchlist that are at new highs on high volume and mostly
past their buy points.

GPSI, GEOC, PRGN, CPWR, BMCS   softwares...



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:07:33 +0200

I wrote:
>YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days,
>after I covered my short.

Oops. The short it had and covered on 09/16 was AOL, not YHOO. Iwas
watching AOL and YHOO together as I consider them both leaders. Anyway,
just wanted to correct that.

>Broke through resistance like a hot knife through
>butter.
>
>What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and
>can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.

And of course today it is 10% higher...  Aaargh! B^)

Another lesson learned.

Now back to the Medicals.




Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Deepak Kapur <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 17:17:23 -0400 (EDT)

Johan,

Does this look like a legitimate follow-through? I still do not believe
it given the technical damage done during the recent decliner. Jeffry,
what do you think? Are you still holding those value line futures (even
paper trading them)? Craig, your thoughts?

Regards,

Deepak

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anindo Majumdar <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 14:21:48 -0700 (PDT)

 You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This
is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying
DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN.

Anindo
>
> I wrote:
> >YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days,
> >after I covered my short.
>
> Oops. The short it had and covered on 09/16 was AOL, not YHOO. Iwas
> watching AOL and YHOO together as I consider them both leaders. Anyway,
> just wanted to correct that.
>
> >Broke through resistance like a hot knife through
> >butter.
> >
> >What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and
> >can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.
>
> And of course today it is 10% higher...  Aaargh! B^)
>
> Another lesson learned.
>
> Now back to the Medicals.
>
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]
Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:16:31 +0200

>This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies.

Some from the watchlist that are at new highs on high volume and mostly
past their buy points.

GPSI, GEOC, PRGN, CPWR, BMCS   softwares...



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 14:50:08 -0700 (PDT)


<<>What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and
couldn't and
>can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.

And of course today it is 10% higher...  Aaargh! B^)

Another lesson learned.

Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.>>

In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn?  Or are you referring
to a daytrading lesson?

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 21:07:33 +0200

I wrote:
>YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days,
>after I covered my short.

Oops. The short it had and covered on 09/16 was AOL, not YHOO. Iwas
watching AOL and YHOO together as I consider them both leaders. Anyway,
just wanted to correct that.

>Broke through resistance like a hot knife through
>butter.
>
>What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and
>can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.

And of course today it is 10% higher...  Aaargh! B^)

Another lesson learned.

Now back to the Medicals.




Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO and Db
Date: 23 Sep 1998 18:45:21 -0400

> Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 17:17:23 -0400 (EDT)
> From: Deepak Kapur <[e-mail]>
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
>
> Johan,
>
> Does this look like a legitimate follow-through? I still do not believe
> it given the technical damage done during the recent decliner. Jeffry,
> what do you think? Are you still holding those value line futures (even
> paper trading them)? Craig, your thoughts?
>
> Regards,
>
> Deepak
>


Follow through days are by definition only the 1% on volume within the
3-10 day window off the low. At least that's the way I learned it. We
had only one follow through day on the original reversal low, Sept. 1 I
believe.  The latter days, the past two, show nice strength (particulary
on increasing A/D breadth), but that are not critical to the Market
direction analysis, IMO.

The futures system has me holding (on paper, unfortunately) a two lot
now up over 30 points each, on average entry.  At $100 a point, that's
200% initial margin requirements per K on the mini-value line contract.
Still no distribution day upon which to justify raising the stop from a
high risk initial placement.

BTW, Db...on the technical side, what do you make of what I'm hearing
referred to as the "bear flag" formation in the indices which now
appears to be at the top of the range and just at the 50 day EMA.  If I
were a gambling man, and I am in a way, I'd say that we could expect a
distribution day tomorrow which would precede a move back to the lower
end of the "flag" trendline.  Your thoughts?

Jeffry

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 24 Sep 1998 00:57:21 +0200

><<>What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and
>couldn't and
>>can't bring myself to buy some YHOO.
>
>And of course today it is 10% higher...  Aaargh! B^)
>
>Another lesson learned.
>
>Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.>>
>
>In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn?  Or are you referring
>to a daytrading lesson?

A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing strenght in
a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really
believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is
comming up, instead of the possibility of going long.

The lesson is that I should look at what the market AND the stock are
doing. That I shouldn't pay attention to what I think they should be doing
or are going to do. The fact is that we are in a short term up-trend.
Whether it will turn into a mid-term uptrend soon, no one knows. And again
I now expect a pauze, but I'll try to just look at what the market does. I
a sense you should build scenario's and in another sense you shouldn't. It
is a delicate balance, I think.

I know a lot of what I'm saying above is debatable. I'm even debating it in
my head as I type...

I'm playing with the idea of totaly isolation myself from all noise, but I
would sure miss the socializing...  So I'll have to work towards finding a
balance between the two.

Still thinking...



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 24 Sep 1998 01:08:07 +0200

At 02:21 PM 23-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
> You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This
>is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying
>DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN.
>
>Anindo

Anindo,

Do you have a crystal ball or are you trained in associated remote viewing?

http://www.remote-viewing.com/

;^)



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anindo Majumdar <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:16:00 -0700 (PDT)

 The stock is telling me. MSFT, DELL, CSCO none of the leaders have reached
their new highs. Yet YHOO crosses it with ease. Sure it might correct
5 to 10 % near term but this one is a keeper for sure.

Anindo
>
> At 02:21 PM 23-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
> > You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This
> >is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying
> >DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN.
> >
> >Anindo
>
> Anindo,
>
> Do you have a crystal ball or are you trained in associated remote viewing?
>
> http://www.remote-viewing.com/
>
> ;^)
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:27:58 -0700 (PDT)



<<>In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn?  Or are you referring
>to a daytrading lesson?

A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing
strenght in
a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really
believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is
comming up, instead of the possibility of going long.>>

I asked because I don't see a base here, at least not one to buy off
of.  There was the base that failed, but where but in hindsight would
a CSer have found a toehold here?  If this is the way stocks are going
to behave for the foreseeable future and bases are going to be as rare
as hens' teeth, I need to find a new way of buying stocks.  Or are you
just ignoring the first three weeks of September and seeing what sort
of base emerges from that?  If you are, it makes a certain kind of
sense.  The stock does have to show a considerable amount of strength
to get back up there, after all.

Like you, I'm finding a lot to chew on.

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]
Date: 23 Sep 1998 19:24:22 EDT

I have been watching SBL Symbol Technologies for awhile now and predict this
stock to be a big winner. They are around thier 52wk high and have an enormous
industry strength. Watch Symbol and buy on dips. There technology is only
becoming more in demand they are going no where but uppppppp.

enjoy the club, and i appreciate all  your input. Thanks

Ed

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98
Date: 23 Sep 1998 17:37:51 -0800


>    WON shows a chart of American Power Conversion and points to the tight
> range and dried volume during the Dec to early Jan time period.  Here he
> states that "Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of
> professional accumulation (buying)."
>    Would some of you chart watchers care to expand on this explanation?

I looked at the chart and don't see a tight range, looks rather bad in
fact.   This was Dec 1997- Jan 1998?



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks to Buy--Maybe
Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:39:01 -0700 (PDT)


Ran another scan of stocks with RS>85, EPS>70, $>7, ADV>75K and A/D of
A or B that are also within 15% of a new high and are in some sort of
a base (utilities not included).  Wound up with GNE, JP, PMS and SDG.
Not exactly a smorgasbord.

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO and Db
Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:20:05 -0700 (PDT)


<<BTW, Db...on the technical side, what do you make of what I'm hearing
referred to as the "bear flag" formation in the indices which now
appears to be at the top of the range and just at the 50 day EMA.  If I
were a gambling man, and I am in a way, I'd say that we could expect a
distribution day tomorrow which would precede a move back to the lower
end of the "flag" trendline.  Your thoughts?>>

I've been debating that elsewhere.  I've read, and it's been my
experience, that flags don't last as long as these.  If, for example,
a falling flag lasts more than a week or so, it more likely signals a
failed breakout more than it does an opportunity to buy.  By the same
token, if a rising flag lasts more than a week or so, it is more
likely a genuine reversal rather than a shorting opportunity.

But in this case, it probably doesn't matter.  IMO, the 200d MAs are
of much greater concern.  It just so happens that the flag channels on
the Naz and S&P cross their individual 200d at the points at which it
would be impossible to know what was the cause of the reversal, if
there is one.

I, for one, am taking CS for its word and buying proper breakouts off
proper bases.  Today that meant OSTE.  More than anything else, I'm
trying to listen to what the market is telling me, rather than adhere
to a prewritten scenario.  If the market reverses course tomorrow and
my stop is hit, I'll just go back to a waiting mode.

BTW, a rising or falling wedge can take far longer than a flag to
unwind, but I don't see wedges here (wedges?  we don't need no
stinking wedges!).

All just my opinion, of course.  Though it's worth keeping in mind
that technicians often use phrases like "tends to indicate", which is
not what I call decisive.  Like "a rising flag tends to indicate a
continuation of the downtrend".  But if this were the case, stocks
would never go up.

Just a thought.

--Db






_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anindo Majumdar <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 16:16:00 -0700 (PDT)

 The stock is telling me. MSFT, DELL, CSCO none of the leaders have reached
their new highs. Yet YHOO crosses it with ease. Sure it might correct
5 to 10 % near term but this one is a keeper for sure.

Anindo
>
> At 02:21 PM 23-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
> > You could still buy YHOO at this price and 2 years later be way ahead. This
> >is one of those oppurtunities that come along once in a lifetime like buying
> >DELL , CSCO, AOL etc in 1993. Same with AMZN.
> >
> >Anindo
>
> Anindo,
>
> Do you have a crystal ball or are you trained in associated remote viewing?
>
> http://www.remote-viewing.com/
>
> ;^)
>
>
>
> Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>
>
>
>
> -
>
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Squires <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 20:56:09 -0400

Hi all,

Just to put my 2 cents in.......... I would characterize the non base
formation in YHOO as a viscous shakeout. IMHO, this stock is a true leader
like a CSCO or AMGN and the downside is equally as volatile as the upside.
Like O'neil says .....a true leader will give you every reason in the world
to sell it or not buy it. If M will just start behaving I will buy this
stock (and BRCM too for that matter) everyday I can just like WON did will
AMGN. That said, the idea of stocks moving into new high ground without a
proper base has got me concerned also. Is this possibly the "discounting" of
CANSLIM........everyone anticipates the handle and buys early thus driving
the stock to a new high early?? I was ready for a little consolidation in
YHOO and BRCM so I could buy a sound breakout with a strong market behind
me. No such luck. I get the worst of both worlds......My watch list goes to
new high ground without me and the market powers ahead on a sickly number of
new highs!!! RATS!

DCSquires

dbphoenix wrote:

> <<>In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn?  Or are you referring
> >to a daytrading lesson?
>
> A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing
> strenght in
> a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really
> believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is
> comming up, instead of the possibility of going long.>>
>
> I asked because I don't see a base here, at least not one to buy off
> of.  There was the base that failed, but where but in hindsight would
> a CSer have found a toehold here?  If this is the way stocks are going
> to behave for the foreseeable future and bases are going to be as rare
> as hens' teeth, I need to find a new way of buying stocks.  Or are you
> just ignoring the first three weeks of September and seeing what sort
> of base emerges from that?  If you are, it makes a certain kind of
> sense.  The stock does have to show a considerable amount of strength
> to get back up there, after all.
>
> Like you, I'm finding a lot to chew on.
>
> --Db
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
> -
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] A few Stocks
Date: 23 Sep 1998 19:00:01 -0800

A couple of stocks I noticed today that might be worth further
review are Compuware (CPWR), SUNW, BMCS, and Peregrine
Systems (PRGN).  SUNW has probably the best base, the others
aren't really ideal, which is probably to be expected with the recent
market volatility.  The volume pattern on CPWR looked especially
good.



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98
Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:00:13 -0400

I concur Patrick, I thought the choice of APCC, for the example was rather
poor. I found the weekly chart offered more in terms of interpreting the
chart correctly, but personally I have found much tighter patterns in other
charts, which have also performed rather well the past couple of weeks.

Frank Wolynski

At 17:37 9/23/98 -0800, you wrote:
>
>>    WON shows a chart of American Power Conversion and points to the tight
>> range and dried volume during the Dec to early Jan time period.  Here he
>> states that "Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of
>> professional accumulation (buying)."
>>    Would some of you chart watchers care to expand on this explanation?
>
>I looked at the chart and don't see a tight range, looks rather bad in
>fact.   This was Dec 1997- Jan 1998?
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO
Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:13:46 -0400

At 16:27 9/23/98 -0700, you wrote:
>
><<>In terms of CANSLIM, what lesson did you learn?  Or are you referring
>>to a daytrading lesson?
>
>A combination of breakout from a base (part of CANSLIM), seeing
>strenght in
>a stock from closely watching it for more than a week. Not really
>believeing what I'm seeing. Paying attention to when that nice short is
>comming up, instead of the possibility of going long.>>
>
>I asked because I don't see a base here, at least not one to buy off
>of.  There was the base that failed, but where but in hindsight would
>a CSer have found a toehold here?  If this is the way stocks are going
>to behave for the foreseeable future and bases are going to be as rare
>as hens' teeth, I need to find a new way of buying stocks.  Or are you
>just ignoring the first three weeks of September and seeing what sort
>of base emerges from that?  If you are, it makes a certain kind of
>sense.  The stock does have to show a considerable amount of strength
>to get back up there, after all.
>
>Like you, I'm finding a lot to chew on.
>
>--Db
>

Chewing a bit here too.
On the AOL 'Traders' forum, there are some referring to the current trading
range patterns being put in by the indexes as the right shoulder of a head
and shoulders that started last July 97 with the left shoulder.

In that context, a bear market ralley back to a nearby moving average or a
resistance level shouldn't be unexpected. If I interpret the chart actions
of many stocks and group indices, I have observed during the past few
weeks, this makes sense.

Having said that, I would expect resistance to set in at a prior support
(which having been breached is now resistance) or at least a pause at a
nearby moving average.

I would also take the liberty to project the upward bias (although it may
only be temporary) to an entire group or at least a few favorites and even
leaders, while it lasted. My take is that we are at prior resistance on the
DOW at 8188 and we are but a 1/2% from that level now. I haven't checked
the other indices, but a finding similar wouldn't surprise me.

And last but not least, if we are indeed in a right shoulder, the left
shoulder would imply that we could stay here for the rest of the year,
trapped in this range. Let us hope that during that time, some of the real
problems of the world will be solved and Iran & Afganistan don't initiate a
war that wraps Pakistan and India in it, nukes and all!

Get those shorts ready, you've only a day or two, maybe.

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98
Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:18:39 -0400

FWIW, APCC has long been a favorite of WON, going back a number of
years. May have had something to do with his selection, going with a
stock he was familiar with.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>I concur Patrick, I thought the choice of APCC, for the example was
rather
>poor. I found the weekly chart offered more in terms of interpreting
the
>chart correctly, but personally I have found much tighter patterns in
other
>charts, which have also performed rather well the past couple of
weeks.
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98
Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:35:10 -0400

They certainly make the best products in that category IMHO.
I won't use anything else! Probably have a total of 250 of them at work.
I have two at home!

Frank Wolynski

At 22:18 9/23/98 -0400, you wrote:
>FWIW, APCC has long been a favorite of WON, going back a number of
>years. May have had something to do with his selection, going with a
>stock he was familiar with.
>
>Tom W
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Frank V. Wolynski <[e-mail]>
>To: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
>Date: Wednesday, September 23, 1998 9:59 PM
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98
>
>
>>I concur Patrick, I thought the choice of APCC, for the example was
>rather
>>poor. I found the weekly chart offered more in terms of interpreting
>the
>>chart correctly, but personally I have found much tighter patterns in
>other
>>charts, which have also performed rather well the past couple of
>weeks.
>>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 23 Sep 1998 22:34:39 -0400

Solid move so far tonight in the Asian mkts, most up at least 2-3%

Much enthusiasm (and self interpretation) of Greenspan's comments
today on the Hill as suggestive of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC
meeting 9/29. Personally, I am doubtful. Rather, I expect a clear
signal (even tho the minutes won't be released for an additional month
or so) that a rate cut is imminent and the bias has again shifted,
this time from neutral to favoring a cut. Disturbing that world
economics seems now to take priority over USA economics. Maybe that's
the wave of the future.

While today's move was pleasant, still tastes euphoric. Only time may
tell, but it did have nice volume, breadth (adv vs decliners), and new
high/low nrs. At least the past several days have shown more mkt
participation by other stocks, tho still am personally concerned by
the high nr of utility and closed end bond fund stocks comprising the
new high list (this may be more attributable to them giving up less
ground over the past month + ).  Were I holding any of them right now,
likely would be cashing out and waiting to see where this mkt is
going.

Decent chance I will be off the internet starting some time late
Thursday or on Friday as Hurricane Georges makes up its mind, and
decides just who doesn't need electricity. This is one really bad boy,
doing some serious Caribbean port hopping. Talk about a Caribbean
cruise!

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 24 Sep 1998 13:19:36 GMT

On Wed, 23 Sep 1998 22:34:39 -0400, you wrote:

:Solid move so far tonight in the Asian mkts, most up at least 2-3%
:
Why oh why (can somebody tell me?) are the CME premarket futures
negative???

:Much enthusiasm (and self interpretation) of Greenspan's comments
:today on the Hill as suggestive of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC
:meeting 9/29. Personally, I am doubtful. Rather, I expect a clear
:signal (even tho the minutes won't be released for an additional month
:or so) that a rate cut is imminent and the bias has again shifted,
:this time from neutral to favoring a cut. Disturbing that world
:economics seems now to take priority over USA economics. Maybe that's
:the wave of the future.

Once I heard of Mr. G's remarks, I took a cynical spin and think that
their is sentiment or pressure for a rate cut within the
administration. Hey, it adds up: Clinton is not realing in the pop
polls, but he will be if the economy sputters. The elections are 6
weeks away, and they are crucial to Democratic power. What will
influence the outcome? You don't have to have a PHD in economics to
know the answer: rate cut. Question is how soon? Tuesday? Wouldn't
surprise me.

:While today's move was pleasant, still tastes euphoric. Only time may
:tell, but it did have nice volume, breadth (adv vs decliners), and new
:high/low nrs. At least the past several days have shown more mkt
:participation by other stocks, tho still am personally concerned by
:the high nr of utility and closed end bond fund stocks comprising the
:new high list (this may be more attributable to them giving up less
:ground over the past month + ).  Were I holding any of them right now,
:likely would be cashing out and waiting to see where this mkt is
:going.
:
:Decent chance I will be off the internet starting some time late
:Thursday or on Friday as Hurricane Georges makes up its mind, and
:decides just who doesn't need electricity. This is one really bad boy,
:doing some serious Caribbean port hopping. Talk about a Caribbean
:cruise!
:
:Tom W
:
Batten down those hatches, Tom, and good luck! BTW, if you don't have
a surge suppressor, you might want to think about getting one.

Dan

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Date: 24 Sep 1998 06:20:53 -0700 (PDT)



Loads of groups trading above their 50d.  Those with asterisks are
also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200).

 Business Svcs
*C-Integrated Systems
 C-Memory Devices
*C-Mini-Micro
 C-Optical Recognition
*C-Services
*C-SW Internet
*C-SW Medl
*C-SW Enterprise
 Electronic-Misc Components
 Electrical Connectors
 Medical-Biomed/Genetics
 Medical-Drugs-Ethical
*Medical-Drugs-Divers
*Medical-Whlsle Drugs, Sundries
*Medical-Medl/Dentl Svcs
 Medical-Hospitals
*Medical-Medical Prods
*Cable TV
 O&G-Machinery/Equip
 O&G-US E&P
 O&G-Prod/Pipeline
 O&G-US Integ
*Drug Stores
*Super/Mini Mkts
*Telecom Svcs

Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases.  If you are
picky about bases, pickings are still slim.

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Date: 24 Sep 1998 07:07:37 -0700

Waded back in today with THQI CPWR PAYX JKHY GMSTF. Best bases I could find,
some extended beyond buy point, but all had valid breakouts this week. THQI
was
esp. impressive.

At 06:20 AM 9/24/98 -0700, you wrote:
>
>
>Loads of groups trading above their 50d.  Those with asterisks are
>also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200).
>
> Business Svcs
>*C-Integrated Systems
> C-Memory Devices
>*C-Mini-Micro
> C-Optical Recognition
>*C-Services
>*C-SW Internet
>*C-SW Medl
>*C-SW Enterprise
> Electronic-Misc Components
> Electrical Connectors
> Medical-Biomed/Genetics
> Medical-Drugs-Ethical
>*Medical-Drugs-Divers
>*Medical-Whlsle Drugs, Sundries
>*Medical-Medl/Dentl Svcs
> Medical-Hospitals
>*Medical-Medical Prods
>*Cable TV
> O&G-Machinery/Equip
> O&G-US E&P
> O&G-Prod/Pipeline
> O&G-US Integ
>*Drug Stores
>*Super/Mini Mkts
>*Telecom Svcs
>
>Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases.  If you are
>picky about bases, pickings are still slim.
>
>--Db
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________
>DO YOU YAHOO!?
>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>-
>
Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: baker <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]
Date: 24 Sep 1998 10:09:01 -0400

ed:

i agree 100 %.  email me at [e-mail]

[e-mail] wrote:

> I have been watching SBL Symbol Technologies for awhile now and predict this
> stock to be a big winner. They are around thier 52wk high and have an enormous
> industry strength. Watch Symbol and buy on dips. There technology is only
> becoming more in demand they are going no where but uppppppp.
>
> enjoy the club, and i appreciate all  your input. Thanks
>
> Ed
>
> -




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Wadding back in...
Date: 24 Sep 1998 16:18:35 +0200

At 07:07 AM 24/09/98 -0700, you wrote:
>Waded back in today with THQI CPWR PAYX JKHY GMSTF. Best bases I could find,
>some extended beyond buy point, but all had valid breakouts this week. THQI
>was
>esp. impressive.


Nice portfolio, Tim.

Bought BMET yesterday. Bought DELL today (my $NDX stock).

Will add or remove depending on what the market and stocks do.



-- Johan Van Houtven



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Date: 24 Sep 1998 08:42:24 -0700 (PDT)


And you get all this info from WOW Pro and Dial Data?  WOW!

TM



---dbphoenix <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
>
>
> Loads of groups trading above their 50d.  Those with asterisks are
> also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200).
>
>  Business Svcs
> *C-Integrated Systems
>  C-Memory Devices
> *C-Mini-Micro
>  C-Optical Recognition
> *C-Services
> *C-SW Internet
> *C-SW Medl
> *C-SW Enterprise
>  Electronic-Misc Components
>  Electrical Connectors
>  Medical-Biomed/Genetics
>  Medical-Drugs-Ethical
> *Medical-Drugs-Divers
> *Medical-Whlsle Drugs, Sundries
> *Medical-Medl/Dentl Svcs
>  Medical-Hospitals
> *Medical-Medical Prods
> *Cable TV
>  O&G-Machinery/Equip
>  O&G-US E&P
>  O&G-Prod/Pipeline
>  O&G-US Integ
> *Drug Stores
> *Super/Mini Mkts
> *Telecom Svcs
>
> Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases.  If you are
> picky about bases, pickings are still slim.
>
> --Db
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Date: 24 Sep 1998 09:01:41 -0700 (PDT)



<<And you get all this info from WOW Pro and Dial Data?  WOW!

TM>>

Any charting program that allows you to create group composites can do
the same thing.  The time-consuming part is creating the groups
themselves.  It's not something I'd want to do twice.

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCANSLIM - Humour AMZN
Date: 25 Sep 1998 05:22:56 +1200


What conference would be complete without some levity? Herasimchuk at Global
Marine stole the show with his comparison of the valuations of his company
and Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq).

He compared Global's price-to-sales ratio of 1.8 to Amazon.com's at 17,
among other figures. Since selling books on the Internet is considered a
high-tech business and drilling for oil a mile and half beneath 7,000 feet
of water isn't, drillers should combine under one Web site -- - and sell oil
and drilling services over the Internet. If Global's stock got the same
valuation as Amazon.com, it'd be at 300, he said. It trades at about 12 1/2
per share.

But an analyst pointed out  (tongue in cheek) that Amazon  hasn't produced
any earnings yet,  (compared to the oil stocks) to disappoint Wall Street
expectations!


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 24 Sep 1998 14:23:18 -0400

Dan,
Best answer I can give to why the futures were neg Wed nite and Thu
morning (and the mkt is down today) is that it was some profit taking
in response to the rally yesterday. Some still view the past week or
so as a "sucker's rally", however I think it is legitimate.

Was just reading the Money report for today from Infobeat, and it made
a lot of sense. Looks like the earnings for the tech sector may well
surpass most analyst's dreary forecasts. Oil sector still looks weak,
so the techs may lead the way out of this correction. Not a bad group
to have as leadership.

Hatches are battened down, hurricane preps are nearly complete, just
have to finish bottling some tap water and doing some cooking so have
something to eat cold if lose electricity. That which I can control is
pretty well done, the dead tree and the sailboat are pretty much on
their own. Hopefully Georges will continue as forecast and pass thru
the Keys into the Gulf, giving us no worse than some tropical storm
conditions with lots of rain and blustery winds. At least I get half
of Thursday and all of Friday off with pay. Compensation of sorts.

I do agree that Greenspan is under some pressure, but he has withstood
domestic political pressure before, and an embattled president is even
less effective against a highly successful FOMC chairman today than he
was 6 months or a year ago. Suspect the greater pressure comes from
international aspects and individuals.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


On Wed, 23 Sep 1998 22:34:39 -0400, you wrote:

:Solid move so far tonight in the Asian mkts, most up at least 2-3%
:
Why oh why (can somebody tell me?) are the CME premarket futures
negative???

:Much enthusiasm (and self interpretation) of Greenspan's comments
:today on the Hill as suggestive of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC
:meeting 9/29. Personally, I am doubtful. Rather, I expect a clear
:signal (even tho the minutes won't be released for an additional
month
:or so) that a rate cut is imminent and the bias has again shifted,
:this time from neutral to favoring a cut. Disturbing that world
:economics seems now to take priority over USA economics. Maybe that's
:the wave of the future.

Once I heard of Mr. G's remarks, I took a cynical spin and think that
their is sentiment or pressure for a rate cut within the
administration. Hey, it adds up: Clinton is not realing in the pop
polls, but he will be if the economy sputters. The elections are 6
weeks away, and they are crucial to Democratic power. What will
influence the outcome? You don't have to have a PHD in economics to
know the answer: rate cut. Question is how soon? Tuesday? Wouldn't
surprise me.

:While today's move was pleasant, still tastes euphoric. Only time may
:tell, but it did have nice volume, breadth (adv vs decliners), and
new
:high/low nrs. At least the past several days have shown more mkt
:participation by other stocks, tho still am personally concerned by
:the high nr of utility and closed end bond fund stocks comprising the
:new high list (this may be more attributable to them giving up less
:ground over the past month + ).  Were I holding any of them right
now,
:likely would be cashing out and waiting to see where this mkt is
:going.
:
:Decent chance I will be off the internet starting some time late
:Thursday or on Friday as Hurricane Georges makes up its mind, and
:decides just who doesn't need electricity. This is one really bad
boy,
:doing some serious Caribbean port hopping. Talk about a Caribbean
:cruise!
:
:Tom W
:
Batten down those hatches, Tom, and good luck! BTW, if you don't have
a surge suppressor, you might want to think about getting one.

Dan

[e-mail]

-



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Patrick Wahl" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks Continued
Date: 24 Sep 1998 17:57:17 -0800

One more stock I forgot in my previous post, mentioned by Db a
few days ago, spiked out of a base of sorts today - OSTE.



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Ari Lawson <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] N/A
Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:11:34 -0400

Can someone please tell me why some stock charts show ' N/A ' on it's
growth rate?.For instance on QLGC's chart.
                                        Thanks Ari


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Ari Lawson <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] N/A
Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:11:34 -0400

Can someone please tell me why some stock charts show ' N/A ' on it's
growth rate?.For instance on QLGC's chart.
                                        Thanks Ari


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Ari Lawson <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QLGC
Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:14:12 -0400

Sorry, also why deosn't it show any earnings stability?
                                                           Thanks Ari


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Ari Lawson <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QLGC
Date: 24 Sep 1998 22:14:12 -0400

Sorry, also why deosn't it show any earnings stability?
                                                           Thanks Ari


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Date: 24 Sep 1998 23:00:30 -0400

At 06:20 AM 9/24/98 -0700, you wrote:
>
>Loads of groups trading above their 50d.  Those with asterisks are
>also trading above their 200d (that is, the 50 is above the 200).
>
> Business Svcs
>*C-Integrated Systems

...snipped...

>
>Lots to choose from, if you're not picky about bases.  If you are
>picky about bases, pickings are still slim.
>
>--Db
>

My surrogate list from C-Integrated Systems
Am I missing any of the good ones?

APEX, DSLGF, FDPC, HYC, JKHY, KRON, MEDW, MRCY, ORCL, PMS, PRLS, PXXI,
QSII, SCHI, SUL, SUNQ, SYMX, WIND, XYBR.

Great charts: JKHY, PMS, KRON (what a base, which failed), WIND and what
has to be the neatest technology of the year, XYBR. They make wearable
computers. No kidding. Unique, at least for now!

No TA included in above observations of the charts.

Regards,
Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] N/A
Date: 25 Sep 1998 05:29:05 -0400

Ari,

Can't speak for other sites and systems, but on Daily Graphs Online
the "growth rate" is measuring earnings growth over 5 years when there
is 5 years data available. In the case of QLGC, the fifth year was a
loss, thus growth can't be measured in a simple arithmetic formula
that can't deal with negatives.

As to the lack of a rating on earnings stability, the same reason
would appear to apply.

I would suggest an email to Daily Graphs pointing out this deficiency,
and suggesting an improvement in their formulas.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----
Cc: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>


>Can someone please tell me why some stock charts show ' N/A ' on it's
>growth rate?.For instance on QLGC's chart.
>                                        Thanks Ari
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:15:16 GMT

On Thu, 24 Sep 1998 14:23:18 -0400, you wrote:

:Dan,
:Best answer I can give to why the futures were neg Wed nite and Thu
:morning (and the mkt is down today) is that it was some profit taking
:in response to the rally yesterday. Some still view the past week or
:so as a "sucker's rally", however I think it is legitimate.

Well, in a sense EVERY rally is legitimate. After all, they are
created by people putting their money where their mouths are, right?
However, they could get their heads handed to them if they're not
nimble, as they say. I'm impressed with Jeffry's analysis that
Thursday looked like it would shape up to be a distribution day. He
had the nail on the head, and I was taken by surprise. However, I kept
my money in my pocket. I'm sniffing around, but I've taken too many
baths to jump before I feel I have my feet beneath me. Sometimes I
feel kinda clueless about the markets, and sometimes I have a good
enough feel to make some real money, and I agree with Db that lately,
it's been a day-trader's market.

I guess you could think of it as a potential "sucker's rally" if
people were buying with the thought that they can buy and hold for
months without concerns.

:
:Was just reading the Money report for today from Infobeat, and it made
:a lot of sense. Looks like the earnings for the tech sector may well
:surpass most analyst's dreary forecasts. Oil sector still looks weak,
:so the techs may lead the way out of this correction. Not a bad group
:to have as leadership.

Oil futures are up about $1 a barrel over where they were a few weeks
ago. That's the first significant move up since the end of last year,
I believe. If it holds, who knows? However, I don't know what has
driven the prices up. Around .15-.20 advance yesterday, as well.
:
:Hatches are battened down, hurricane preps are nearly complete, just
:have to finish bottling some tap water and doing some cooking so have
:something to eat cold if lose electricity. That which I can control is
:pretty well done, the dead tree and the sailboat are pretty much on
:their own. Hopefully Georges will continue as forecast and pass thru
:the Keys into the Gulf, giving us no worse than some tropical storm
:conditions with lots of rain and blustery winds. At least I get half
:of Thursday and all of Friday off with pay. Compensation of sorts.

You're putting us on with that bit about the dead tree and sailboat,
right?

:I do agree that Greenspan is under some pressure, but he has withstood
:domestic political pressure before, and an embattled president is even
:less effective against a highly successful FOMC chairman today than he
:was 6 months or a year ago. Suspect the greater pressure comes from
:international aspects and individuals.
:
:Tom W
:
Seems to me, he isn't worried. He's not feeling under pressure to hold
the rate steady right now. In fact, that whole paradigm seems to have
vanished like a fog in the morning sun! Surprise!  Ergo, my statement
about taking a cynical spin. In the face of the elections, the tension
and antagonism you site above between the administration and
*independent* FOMA, are conveniently disolved. That's my view, but you
may have a more sophisticated take on all this.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 06:29:29 -0700 (PDT)



<<>>Some still view the past week or
:so as a "sucker's rally", however I think it is legitimate.<<

Well, in a sense EVERY rally is legitimate. After all, they are
created by people putting their money where their mouths are, right?
However, they could get their heads handed to them if they're not
nimble, as they say.>>

We've already discussed trendline and price resistance, but there are
other things to consider, such as that since 1960 the best bear market
rally failure has been 12.04% (according to Woodward).  So if we can't
get much past that, much less all the various resistance levels, we
have a problem.  Consider also that the probability of coming out of a
severe correction with only a V bottom is slim.

CS has confused the issue with all these rally confirmations.  If I
remember correctly, last year the confirmation didn't come through
till January.  This time they've been popping up like Crocus in the
Spring.

--Db


_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength
Date: 25 Sep 1998 06:37:36 -0700 (PDT)



<<My surrogate list from C-Integrated Systems
Am I missing any of the good ones?>>

I don't include foreign stocks or IPOs or stocks which are below $10
or less than 50K ADV, so my list is considerably shorter than yours,
but I do have BRKT and IMNT.

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 15:52:40 +0200

>We've already discussed trendline and price resistance, but there are
>other things to consider, such as that since 1960 the best bear market
>rally failure has been 12.04% (according to Woodward).  So if we can't
>get much past that, much less all the various resistance levels, we
>have a problem.  Consider also that the probability of coming out of a
>severe correction with only a V bottom is slim.

It was almost unthinkable that the bears wouldn't show their claws again
near the massive overhead resistance we were (are) at.

We'll now have to wait and see wether we begin a new short term down-trend,
to replace the short-term uptrend we were in.

I would not be mad if YHOO crashed right back to were it came from. B^)

Haven't look at charts yet, but has anyone noticed any failed break-outs yet?

BRCM sure is acting funny.

On the other hand, I was think back how we were all glad we didn't buy DELL
@ 102 as it went into the 90's. Now it is a 120+ (pre-split).  Not bad,
during a bear market...



-- Johan Van Houtven



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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 07:33:40 -0700 (PDT)


<<On the other hand, I was think back how we were all glad we didn't
buy DELL @ 102 as it went into the 90's. Now it is a 120+ (pre-split).
 Not bad,
during a bear market...>>

Keep in mind that not everyone agrees that this is a bear market (like
me).  Therefore, what's normal need not apply.

--Db




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 15:03:44 GMT

On Fri, 25 Sep 1998 15:52:40 +0200, you wrote:

:
:On the other hand, I was think back how we were all glad we didn't buy =
DELL
:@ 102 as it went into the 90's. Now it is a 120+ (pre-split).  Not bad,
:during a bear market...
:
:
:
:-- Johan Van Houtven
:
I get a case of the shoulda-couldas when I see what DELL and YHOO did
off of their lows. Dell's up about 4% today over 65, off of a
post-split low of around 40. Yahoo at 118 looks nice off of a low
around 80. My oh my.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



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From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 19:22:08 +0200

>I get a case of the shoulda-couldas when I see what DELL and YHOO did
>off of their lows. Dell's up about 4% today over 65, off of a
>post-split low of around 40. Yahoo at 118 looks nice off of a low
>around 80. My oh my.


To make it even worse, Dan, just imagine that you had put your money in
DELL one year ago. Did almost nothing, except visit this list once in a
while... to laugh.

Can you image the problems you would be having? Something like: (You
talking to your significant other) "What would you prefer darling, Maui or
the Virgin Islands?" (Your SO) "Let me think about that on the palne to
Fort Meyers this weekend."

:)





Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




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From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 19:14:45 +0200

At 07:33 AM 25-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
>
><<On the other hand, I was think back how we were all glad we didn't
>buy DELL @ 102 as it went into the 90's. Now it is a 120+ (pre-split).
> Not bad,
>during a bear market...>>
>
>Keep in mind that not everyone agrees that this is a bear market (like
>me).  Therefore, what's normal need not apply.


Db,

I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than 20%.

If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree
completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market.

Just wanted to clear that up.



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




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From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:51:20 -0400

> I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than
20%.
>
> If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree
> completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market.
>
Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates?

Why is the world in shambles?

What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end?

Why all the layoffs?

Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up?

The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru it I
beleive we will have great market.

Peter

-



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From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 20:06:13 +0200

Peter,

We are talking about the US economy. Considering the disasters in other
places in the world, the US is doing just fine. of course the US is feeling
some of the effects from this, but is not that you are all in dispear and
have a hard time earning a decent living, right?

Still extremely low unemployment.

Still the best place to be in the world.

Maybe the economic bear market will come, but it is not here yet. It's the
stock markets job to predict it. And they are trying to do just that.

Anyway, what we think about the economy is immaterial what the market is
doing is important. And today it is working hard to keep the short term
uptrend in tact.




At 01:51 PM 25-09-98 -0400, you wrote:
>> I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than
>20%.
>>
>> If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree
>> completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market.
>>
>Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates?
>
>Why is the world in shambles?
>
>What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end?
>
>Why all the layoffs?
>
>Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up?
>
>The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru it I
>beleive we will have great market.
>
>Peter
>
>-
>
>

Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



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From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 11:20:16 -0700

On 10:51 AM 9/25/98 , Peter Newell Said:
>> I was purely using the term bear market to describe a drop bigger than
>20%.
>>
>> If one uses the term to descibe the state of the economy, I agree
>> completely, with you, that we are not in a bear market.
>>
>Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates?
>
Defensive action to KEEP the economy rolling.

>Why is the world in shambles?
>
Not our fault!

>What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end?
>
Media hype?

>Why all the layoffs?
>
Among restricted sectors/companies. Where's the statistics showing sig.
increasing unemployment? Still one of the most employed countries!

>Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up?
>
Restricted sectors/co's again. Esp those w/ international exposure.

>The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru it I
>beleive we will have great market.
>
>Peter

I agree near-term volatility seems extreme, indices bumping against MAs. Tight
stops!


Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

mailto:[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!

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From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 14:15:01 -0400

> Still extremely low unemployment.
>
> Still the best place to be in the world.
>
> Maybe the economic bear market will come, but it is not here yet. It's
the
> stock markets job to predict it. And they are trying to do just that.
>
> Anyway, what we think about the economy is immaterial what the market is
> doing is important. And today it is working hard to keep the short term
> uptrend in tact.

No argument here.

Peter

-



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From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 14:34:32 -0400

> >Hmmm if the economy is so great why is Greenspan going to drop rates?
> >
> Defensive action to KEEP the economy rolling.
>
Ok

> >Why is the world in shambles?
> >
> Not our fault!
Doesn't matter
>
> >What was this report about 9 years of easy money coming to an end?
> >
> Media hype?
I found that piece of information buried in the middle of a very boring
article same way I found out about high inventories last year
> >Why all the layoffs?
> >
> Among restricted sectors/companies. Where's the statistics showing sig.
> increasing unemployment? Still one of the most employed countries!
>
hope so
> >Why are the analysts revising forecasts down instead of up?
> >
> Restricted sectors/co's again. Esp those w/ international exposure.
hope so
> >The question probably is how long will this take to get thru once thru
it I
> >beleive we will have great market.
> >
> >Peter
>
> I agree near-term volatility seems extreme, indices bumping against MAs.
Tight
> stops!

Ever seen this type of volatility resolve itself in a good way?

I find it interesting that when the Dow was dropping to 6600 in 1997 that
this group was concerned and now I hear "But the market must go up".

Anyhow, I am ready and waiting for the next rally.

Peter



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From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] OFF TOPIC: Market Levity
Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:20:17 -0700

TODAY'S STOCK MARKET REPORT
Helium was up, feathers were down. Paper was stationary.
Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading. Knives were up sharply.
Cows steered into a bull market. Pencils lost a few points.
Hiking equipment was trailing.
Elevators rose, while escalators continued their slow decline.
Weights were up in heavy trading.
Light switches were off.
Mining equipment hit rock bottom. Diapers remain unchanged.
Shipping lines stayed at an even keel.
The market for raisins dried up.
Coca Cola fizzled.
Caterpillar stock inched up a bit.
Sun peaked at midday.
Balloon prices were inflated.
Scott Tissue touched a new bottom.
And batteries exploded in an attempt to recharge the market.


Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites

mailto:[e-mail]
WWW: http://OreRockOn.com
See naked fish and rocks!

-



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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:28:59 -0700 (PDT)


<<I find it interesting that when the Dow was dropping to 6600 in 1997
that
this group was concerned and now I hear "But the market must go up".

Anyhow, I am ready and waiting for the next rally.

Peter>>

I didn't mean to ignite a debate.  I was only stating an opinion.  I
try to be deliberate and accurate in my choice of words, though my
efforts often fail.  And though many people whose opinions I respect
are calling this a bear market, even though inflation is low,
employment is high, most everybody is doing quite well, commodities
are low, the economy is not in the toilet, etc., I can't help
wondering what they'd call a market in which all of these things were
their opposites.

It seems to me that bear markets can be called only in retrospect.
For one thing, they should remain at the >20% level not for a few days
but for weeks, if not months.  There should be despair, fear,
capitulation, a wholesale exit by amateurs from the markets.  But
there hasn't been any of that.  We still buy the dips, the leadership
is still the same, PEs are still too high, we're getting repeated CS
confirmations, more than one rally has been broad-based and
substantial, we've reached all the back to resistance . . .  What word
does one use for the kind of market in which everything's going to
he** and people are terrified?  Serious bear?  Severe bear?

One could argue that groups such as O&G and semis are in their own
bear markets, or even that small-caps as a whole have been in their
own bear market for a lengthy period of time.  But at any point in the
market cycle there're going to be groups that are at the bottom of the
barrel.  That doesn't mean that there are no opportunities.  One can't
deny that day and swing traders haven't had spectacular opportunities
in internet and medical stocks, to name two.

So whether one calls this a bear market or not is really no skin off
my nose.  I'd caution newbies, though, that "bear" is an emotion-laden
word, and to be careful about making assumptions about what's going to
happen based solely on preconceptions about a bear market is.

O'N's advice is still the best.  Watch the daily averages and daily
charts and let the market tell you what it's doing.  It couldn't care
less what one thinks or expects or anticipates or believes.  If the
market breaks through resistance, fine.  If it doesn't and it retests
the lows, also fine.  But it's distracting to state that the market
"can't possibly" do such and such, or the market "just has to" do so
and so.  Remember the decline and fall of Elaine Garzarelli? <VBG>

--Db






_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OFF TOPIC: Market Levity
Date: 25 Sep 1998 13:41:55 -0700 (PDT)



ROTFLMAO!!!  Thanks, Tim!

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



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From: [e-mail] (Jeff Salisbury)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only
Date: 25 Sep 1998 17:46:36 -0600

On Sep 22,  3:34pm, Walter Stock wrote:
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only
>
> Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of
> my revered books.  References to inflation outnumber those to
> deflation by 10 to 1.   Why ?   These texts were all written well
> after World War Two,  where inflation has been the norm.
>
> If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know.
>
> Walter Stock
> - -
>-- End of excerpt from Walter Stock


Walter,

I'm interested.  So, how does a canslim'er structure a portfolio during
deflationary periods?  30-year zero-coupon US bonds?

Jeff

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From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 26 Sep 1998 13:21:58 +1200

They say the market rises on a wall of worry. So the article below must be
healthy for the market :-) Does anyone think this have any impact on the US
market. If not, why  is the Federal Reserve getting involved then?
Where there is one cockroack lurking in the cup-board, there is usually more
to be found. Methinks there might be some Japanese banks invovled as well.

$80b hedge fund threatened
Long Term Capital Management, one of the world's biggest hedge funds with
US$80 billion, could still collapse despite a bail-out brokered by the
Federal Reserve.

The US fund was pluncked from the brink by a US3.75 billion bail-out
by at least 15 of the world's financial institutions. But its survival is
not certain and the fallout  could be vast.

This could have start to have a domino effect on US institutions and abroad.
There is a real systemic risk. The Federal Reserve is clearly worried. "That
is why they got involved," a Standard and Poor' Ratings Group director,
Tanya Azarchs, said.

Financial stocks from Zurich to New York fell on concern that the full
extent of the damage -- both to Long-Term Capital's creditors and to other
hedge funds that followed similar strategies -- was not yet known.

Early Friday, credit rating agencies Moody's Investors Service Inc. and
Standard & Poor's Corp. said they were reviewing all major U.S. and European
banks for possible downgrade.

The Union Bank of Switzerland said it had already lost $US685 million from
its direct stake in LTCM and other financial institutions are expected to
follow suit.


``We're scrutinizing every bank with emerging markets exposures, hedge fund
exposures and other types of risky assets that could be impacted by these
huge market movements,'' said Christopher Mahoney, managing director at
Moody's.

Long-Term's troubles raised concerns banks would pull back from all but the
highest-quality borrowers, triggering a worldwide liquidity crunch.

``The credit cycle has definitely turned,'' said Tanya Azarchs, director at
Standard & Poor's.

Standard & Poor's took the first shot at banks Friday by cutting its rating
on Bankers Trust Corp. senior debt to A-minus from A. It cited the bank's
heavy dealings with riskier clients.

As banks and brokerages realign their securities portfolios to reflect a
risk-averse global financial environment, major western bond markets seem to
be holding strong.

U.S. Treasuries were also higher late Friday.

The LTCM debacle triggered fears that bad trades by the fund would lead to
more market turnoil since hedge funds typically make leveraged speculative
trades, often totalling more than 10 times the amount they initially put
down.

TCM, which boasts Nobel laureates Myron Schoeles and Robert Merton among its
partners, was hit by massive losses on global markets in the flight to
quality after Russia defaulted on its domestic debt more than a month ago.

                                    - Reuter


-



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From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 25 Sep 1998 22:10:06 -0400

Well that didn't take long to get underway!
Frank Wolynski

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Long-Term Capital Management LP,
on life support with a $3.5 billion capital infusion, began selling off
assets Friday in a bid to stay alive, but bankers warned the
liquidation will be a long and tortuous process.

Complete Story:
http://my.excite.com/news/r/980925/18/business-longterm


-



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From: "Dean Edwards" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 26 Sep 1998 14:29:54 +1200

I was expecting a bloodbath for Wall Street on Friday. But the market is
already antcipating an interest rate cut, helps the banks make more money on
the long term interest rate yield curve. The FED comes to the rescue and
saves the world!
My own cynical opinion, they should let them go under along with any other
hedge fund who has losses, forcing the banks to call in their loans,
creating a nice credit crunch for the economy. Then we would get a healthy
bear correction instead of these fake rallies. Once and for all, put an end
to this long slow torturous bear market!

How To Tell The "Health" of the Stock Market At Any Time ...

Check the New York Stock Exchange NYSE New Highs and New Lows every day. The
"New Highs" are the stocks that have traded higher than their 52 week high
price. The "New Lows" are stocks that have traded lower than their 52 week
low price.

If the number of NYSE New Lows consistently remains below 30, then we are in
a relatively flat to strong market.

If the number of NYSE New Lows consistently remains below 20, then we are in
a  very strong (bull) market.

If anyone has been making money in this market, let me know which stocks you
have been buying, besides the big caps.

-----Original Message-----


>Well that didn't take long to get underway!
>Frank Wolynski
>
>-----------------------------------------------------------------
>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Long-Term Capital Management LP,
>on life support with a $3.5 billion capital infusion, began selling off
>assets Friday in a bid to stay alive, but bankers warned the
>liquidation will be a long and tortuous process.
>
>Complete Story:
>http://my.excite.com/news/r/980925/18/business-longterm
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 25 Sep 1998 22:59:17 -0400

At 14:29 9/26/98 +1200, you wrote:
>I was expecting a bloodbath for Wall Street on Friday. But the market is
>already antcipating an interest rate cut, helps the banks make more money on
>the long term interest rate yield curve. The FED comes to the rescue and
>saves the world!
>My own cynical opinion, they should let them go under along with any other
>hedge fund who has losses, forcing the banks to call in their loans,
>creating a nice credit crunch for the economy. Then we would get a healthy
>bear correction instead of these fake rallies. Once and for all, put an end
>to this long slow torturous bear market!
>

Ditto.
Let's recap, Japanese Prime Minister gets lecture from Clinton concerning
proping up insolvent banking system. US even dusts off the old 80's story
of how the resolution trust saved america from the S&L's and we are better
off for it. Closed them down and sold off the assets. "Emporor has no
clothes", indeed!

Not that I want to see our financial system fail. I think there are
excesses abundant and a cleansing is necessary to maintain health of the
solvent and profitable.

Daytraders making money in these markets. Also, Russian mafia, overexposed
hedge funds, mismanaged foreign governments and Clintons 44 lawyers.

I don't want to seem overly bearish, but I think the plan has to be, break
to them gently, let it bleed slowly. Kinda the Bear in Bulls clothing
approach!

Frank Wolynski
(CANSLIM in the closet, studying daytraders and tactics!)



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] More LTCB stuff
Date: 25 Sep 1998 23:36:43 -0400

Welcome to The Greater Fool!=20

Open Letter to the Fed

September 24, 1998

Messrs. Alan Greenspan and William McDonough
Board of Governors Federal Reserve System
Washington, DC 20551

Gentlemen:

It was with great pleasure that we read in this morning=92s Wall Street
Journal of your decision to help alleviate the unfortunate and unnecessar=
y
loss incurred by the investors
and creditors of Long Term Capital Management LP. The rapid and unforesee=
n
decline in global markets has made it hard for all of us to master this
universe. Your decision to
intervene yesterday will certainly help Long Term Capital raise the funds
necessary to buy into this unusually large dip. Americans everywhere are
thankful for having such a
thoughtful and forward-looking Federal Reserve System.

We are writing you to inform you of our own investment losses of late
(though, most unfairly, our losses have not been on the cover of
BusinessWeek). The following is a list of
reasons for this loss, which, we think, is not unlike that of Long Term=92=
s:=20

-We owned a large sum of derivatives, fully convinced of the smooth and
continuous pricing of the markets. Our blind faith in Black Scholes model=
s
remains intact.
-Our models are perfect. It is the market=92s fault for not following the=
m,
not ours.=20
-We were clueless regarding the nature of gamma risk. We are still a litt=
le
fuzzy on this.=20
-We have never lived through a bear market, nor do we think we need one n=
ow.=20
-We have never read anything written by Nicolai Kondratieff, Sidney Homer=
,
Benjamin Graham, Alexander Dana Noyes, Robert Rhea, Ralph Elliott, or
anyone else with a sense of history. History is a waste of time.=20
-We invested heavily in junk bonds, especially those issued by countries
which cannot be located on a map by our crack research department. We nev=
er
 understood why people called them junk to begin with.=20

We think you=92re doing a great job, and we think you=92ll cut rates (win=
k,
wink, nudge, nudge). We think this will be pure gravy for all of us, and =
we
can=92t wait to buy more junk bonds on margin.=20

Enclosed you will find a more detailed list of our losses since mid-summe=
r.
Please enclose your check (payable to TheGreaterFool.com LLC) in the
self-addressed stamped envelope provided.=20

Sincerely,
TheGreaterFools

P.S. Do you have the IMF=92s address?

Enclosures
Cc: Mr. David Komansky, chairman, Merrill Lynch & Co.
Mr. Sanford I. Weill, chairman, Travelers Group
Mr. Jon Corzine, senior partner, Goldman Sachs & Co.
Mr. Douglas Warner, chairman, J. P. Morgan & Co.
Mr. John Merriwether, general partner, Long Term Capital Management LP

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Walter Stock" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 26 Sep 1998 00:09:43 PDT

> My own cynical opinion, they should let them go under along with any =
other
> hedge fund who has losses, forcing the banks to call in their loans,
> creating a nice credit crunch for the economy. Then we would get a heal=
thy
> bear correction instead of these fake rallies. Once and for all, put =
an end
> to this long slow torturous bear market!

Hi Dean,

I don't think your view is cynical at all.  Perhaps it is because I am =
at heart
a contrarian, but when I first read about it, this bailout made absolutel=
y
no sense.

After all when you or I have a trading loss, the Fed doesn't show up
on our doorstep to organize cash infusions.
And no, its not just because we are small fry, and this hedge fund
is a big kahuna....
Remember that the  US Treasury, the Federal Reserve and even Clinton
have all been hammering the Japanese for months to resolve their banking =
problems,
and not through a bailout but by letting the weakest institutions go unde=
r
(and without saddling the stronger banks with the weak banks' bad debts).

So what happens?  The Fed does the exact opposite of its own
sermonizing and bails not a bank, but a hedge fund.  A hedge fund  !?!?!?
Doesn't it know that it may create a stampede with every hedgie
manager burned by the emerging markets pounding at the door,
demanding his/her fair share of Fed time and largesse?

There is only one way all of this makes sense.  I harken back
to my Macro-Economics 202 :   the Fed has more, and better, and fresher
financial information than any other institution or person in the world.
The Fed leadership simply has access to data and to the big picture that =
others
only get weeks or months later (if at all).
IMHO to make this kind of unprecedented move, the Fed must have looked =
into
their data, and seen something immense (and dangerous).

The following was in one of the newswires on  quote.yahoo.com  tonight:

      But even as the fund and its bankers struggled to contain the damag=
e, a
      fierce debate was raging in U.S. financial markets about the wisdom=
 of a
      rescue package that raises questions about the integrity of free =
markets
      and ultimately may succeed only in prolonging the agony of the hedg=
e
      fund and the financial markets at large.

     "It sends very questionable signals about our markets. We tell other
     countries that capital cronyism is bad and then we do something
     similar,'' said Richard Schwartz, who oversees $22 billion in bonds =
at
     New York Life Asset Management.       --- Reuters

Walter Stock
Oakville, ONT - Canada


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <"[e-mail]"@sover.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 26 Sep 1998 07:36:37 -0400

>  I'm impressed with Jeffry's analysis that
> Thursday looked like it would shape up to be a distribution day. He
> had the nail on the head, and I was taken by surprise. However, I kept
> my money in my pocket.


But, it wasn't a "distribution day" in the WON sense, Dan.  Just a down
day, more of a TA phenomenon on the "bear flag"/"wedge" formation we are
in.  Bounced right of that trendline of that formation, and the 200 day
moving average.

Of course, everytime I make a comment on "M" lately, I open up IBD and
read some contradiction to what I've come to trust over the years.  Time
to cancel the subscription, I think.

My call was for a gap up open and a close lower to unchanged on the day
with an increase in volume. True 'distribution days' must show that
increase in volume over the prior day's trade.  That we did not see.

Jeffry

BTW, I don't like this market.

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] OFF TOPIC:  Market Levity
Date: 26 Sep 1998 09:00:16 -0500 (CDT)

Tim Fisher,

This is great.  Many thanks.

Mary Keener





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] LTCM / Interest Rate Cut Question
Date: 26 Sep 1998 10:48:11 -0400

The article in the NYT indicated that the banks themselves may have
positions similar to LTCM's in regards to T Bonds. Shorted them that is.

Would not a drop in interest rates worsen the problem of the spread?
What foreign firms have exposure similar? Couldn't this set off the very
thing they were attempting to avoid by rescueing LTCM?

Perhaps if on the right side of their futures/derivatives positions a run
up in the stocks could offset the rate spread position, until they unwind
some of it, but I highly doubt their market bets are any better than their
bond positions!

Frank Wolynski



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 25 Sep 1998 22:35:32 -0400

At 13:21 9/26/98 +1200, you wrote:
>They say the market rises on a wall of worry. So the article below must be
>healthy for the market :-) Does anyone think this have any impact on the US
>market. If not, why  is the Federal Reserve getting involved then?
>Where there is one cockroack lurking in the cup-board, there is usually more
>to be found. Methinks there might be some Japanese banks invovled as well.

I think it will take October to undercover what is being left out here.
We only know what they had to tell us!

Why else would AG have reversed his stance on interest rates in only one
week!
He's had one heck of a week I'll wager!

I think the Fed will lower rates Tuesday, probably by 1/2%.
What choice do they have, outright financial system collapse or a bit of
inflation down the road a piece?

I'm puzzling over the backlashes and ripples that are left to unfold.
Lower rates, weaker dollar, imports more expensive, exports cheaper.
How do the foreign markets react and more importantly didn't their holdings
of US Treasuries just get knocked by the weaker dollar? What effect does
this have on China, South America?

Germany won't like the rate cut. They have the conversion to Euro-dollars
coming up in January and they don't need that instability right now.

Geez what a mess! Damned banks!

PHDs, Nobel laureates no less. Long Russian Bonds and short US Treasuries!
A blind one armed monkey with cooties could have been drunk, unconcious and
lost his bladder on the financial quotations and done better!
( Hey wait a minute, I think he's working at LTCM, never mind.)

Long Russian Bonds and short US Treasuries! What the hell were they thinking?
Next we'll hear how they went long Japan at 15,000, and shorted oil at $15
a barrel.

I don't think they were using CANSLIM so the relevancy of my ramblings are
free to ignore.

Frank Wolynski





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] New York Times article on LTCM
Date: 26 Sep 1998 10:43:02 -0400

<bold>Hedge Fund's Bets Top $1.2 Trillion


By JOSEPH KAHN and PETER TRUELL


 The speculative investment fund rescued by a consortium of Wall Street
banks this week made complex bets on international financial markets with
a total value drastically higher than previously estimated, financiers
who studied its books said Friday.


 They said the fund, Long-Term Capital Management, used its $2.2 billion
in capital from investors as collateral to buy $125 billion in
securities, and then used those securities as collateral to enter into
exotic financial transactions worth $1.25 trillion.


 Long-Term Capital's portfolio had been previously estimated at $90
billion.


 Using such a small amount of money to gamble on transactions worth far
more is extraordinary even in Long-Term Capital's risky world of hedge
funds, the largely unregulated pools of investment funds now receiving
increased Government scrutiny. How and why bankers who dealt with
Long-Term Capital allowed it to make such astonishing bets remains
unclear. [News analysis, page B1.]


 The financiers who studied Long-Term Capital's books said the hedge fund
had sold some positions since the end of August, reducing the total size
of its holdings. Before it was taken over by the consortium of banks and
brokerage houses Wednesday, Long-Term Capital also used up much of its
capital base to pay loans. Those people said the hedge fund's capital
base had shrunk to $600 million and its securities holdings to about $100
billion before the creditors took control of the fund with a $3.5 billion
bailout package.


 But the look at the accounting books of Long-Term Capital at the end of
August provides a glimpse into its operating style.


 It also shows the extent to which the hedge fund's backers, including
many of the leading Wall Street investment banks, allowed the fund's star
manager, John W. Meriwether, to amass such an enormous speculative
portfolio.


 In part because of Long-Term's Capital huge exposure to financial
markets, and worries that a collapse could destabilize financial markets
around the world, banks that did business with the fund elected to
arrange a bailout and assume control of it rather than let the fund fail.


 Some Wall Street executives said the total quantity of securities held
by Long-Term Capital would have been difficult to sell. That is
especially true since the securities were used as collateral for the
$1.25 trillion in derivatives and forward contracts, in many cases bets
on the direction of interest rates and bond prices.


 The fact that Long-Term Capital took huge risks through derivatives and
forward contracts does not mean that its collapse would have resulted in
losses equivalent to their total value. But the sheer size of the fund's
bets made them difficult to unravel,without unsettling the markets that
Meriwhether gambled in. Especially when the market is moving against the
trades, as they were in Long-Term Capital's case, selling its derivatives
and futures contracts might have proven prohibitively costly for the
banks that had money at stake.


 To offer a comparison, when the venerable British investment bank
Barings P.L.C. collapsed three years ago, a rogue trader in its ranks had
gambled on changes in prices of Japanese Government bonds and the
direction of Japanese interest rates through financial instruments
worth$30 billion. When the bonds and interest rates moved in the other
direction of the bets Barings had made and those contracts tumbled in
value, Baringsfaced losses of $1 billion and collapsed.


 Long-Term Capital's total exposure to financial market bets was about 40
times that of Barings and it did not have much more capital than Barings
did.


 In a further sign of the Government's concern over how Long-Term
Capital's near-collapse happened, Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin
announced late Friday that United States agencies responsible for
supervising financial markets would conduct a study on hedge funds and
their relationships with creditors.


 In a statement issued after markets had closed, Rubin said the Treasury
Department had been closely following developments related to Long-Term
Capital. Congressional Republicans also announced they would hold
hearings exploring all aspects of the hedge fund industry, including
regulation and supervision.


 In comments earlier Friday, Rubin disputed the idea that hedge funds
should be regulated like banks and put under some form of Government
control. "I don't think it is a question of reining people in," Rubin
told reporters in Washington. But he said Long-Term Capital's situation
had raised some concerns.


 "There are questions about disclosure and other issues, and my guess is
there will be a lot of discussion and debate about that," Rubin said.


 The fallout from Long-Term Capital's near collapse extended to Europe,
with Dresdner Bank A.G. of Germany and Credit Suisse Group of Switzerland
detailing losses from investment firm, which is based in Greenwich, Conn.


 But neither had exposure comparable to UBS A.G., Europe's largest bank,
which took a $689 million charge against third-quarter earnings to write
down its stake in the hedge fund, an adjustment that will probably cause
the bank to post a loss for the quarter.


 Some European markets were also off sharply. United States stock markets
fell in early trading but recovered to post a solid gain. Investors were
nervously watching developments to determine whether other big players in
the universe of 3,000 hedge funds, many of which had bond market
positions not unlike those of Long-Term Capital, would face pressure from
banks to sell securities to pay off margin loans, potentially weakening
the already-fragile world bond market.


 Peter Bakstansky, a spokesman for the New York Federal Reserve, which
arranged the private-sector rescue of Long-Term Capital, was cautious
when asked if there might be other hedge funds that were at risk or if
the bailout of Long-Term Capital had succeeded. But he indicated that
initial signs were good. "The firm is operating," he said, "and the
market reaction at this point seems to be reasonable."


 The New York Fed pulled together the consortium of private banks and
brokerage houses early this week to rescue Long-Term Capital. Fed
officials said they feared that a sudden liquidation of the hedge fund's
holdings might send shock waves through the world financial system.


 But the Fed's quick action to save the hedge fund from collapse has
raised other questions. Some Wall Street bankers say privately that they
felt strong-armed by the Government into putting up the $3.5 billion for
the bailout. Bakstansky, the spokesman for the New York Fed, denies this,
saying some banks chose not to participate in the bailout and that the
Fed had no way of forcing them to partake.


 But perhaps the main question raised early on in the takeover of
Long-Term Capital was how so many well-regulated and risk-conscious banks
could have leant so much money to a single speculative investor, albeit
one with a stellar track record for producing outsized return in recent
years.


 Even if hedge funds escape direct regulation as a result of the
Long-Term Capital bailout, regulators seem certain to scrutinize the
links between banks and hedge funds. Banks provide much of the capital
the hedge funds need to take highly leveraged positions in stock, bond
and currency markets.


 The Financial Services Authority of Britain has ordered 55 banks and
other financial institutions to provide information on their exposure to
Long-Term Capital and to other hedge funds. Swiss bank regulators asked
UBS for details about its involvement in Long-Term Capital.


 The consortium of financial institutions participating in the rescue
announced Friday that the duration of their recapitalization was three
years, suggesting that they expected a slow resolution of the firm's
trading positions.


 An oversight committee is being formed at the direction of the
consortium to include representatives of Goldman, Sachs; Merrill Lyunch;
J. P. Morgan; Morgan Stanley Dean Witter; Travelers Group, and UBS.


 The oversight committee, which now controls 90 percent of the equity in
Long-Term Capital, has assumed authority over all aspects of the


Saturday, September 26, 1998</bold>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 26 Sep 1998 15:08:04 GMT

On Fri, 25 Sep 1998 19:22:08 +0200, you wrote:

:>I get a case of the shoulda-couldas when I see what DELL and YHOO did
:>off of their lows. Dell's up about 4% today over 65, off of a
:>post-split low of around 40. Yahoo at 118 looks nice off of a low
:>around 80. My oh my.
:
:
:To make it even worse, Dan, just imagine that you had put your money in
:DELL one year ago. Did almost nothing, except visit this list once in a
:while... to laugh.
:
:Can you image the problems you would be having? Something like: (You
:talking to your significant other) "What would you prefer darling, Maui =
or
:the Virgin Islands?" (Your SO) "Let me think about that on the palne to
:Fort Meyers this weekend."
:
::)
I got a laugh out of this anyway, Johan! Believe me! And, you know
what? I knew that Dell was the undisputed leader in it's then emerging
group about 3 years ago when I REALLY could have made a bundle. I
thought of plopping down my whole nest egg on it, but was at that
point preparing to start my investments, and hadn't put the plan into
motion. Well, I certainly had a good idea. I had a job and we used two
Dell computers. I had need a few times to contact Dell technical
support, and found that they were infinitely more helpful and easier
to reach than Compac. They were top rated in surveys in PC Magazine. I
saw the writing on the wall, but I wasn't ready. Maui or Virgin
Islands? That's a tough call. I lived on Maui for 2 1/2 years, and
would sure like to check it out again. Would like to be able to buy a
house there.

Dan

:Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
:
:
:
:
:-

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 26 Sep 1998 15:29:41 GMT

On Fri, 25 Sep 1998 13:28:59 -0700 (PDT), you wrote:

:  But it's distracting to state that the market
:"can't possibly" do such and such, or the market "just has to" do so
:and so.  Remember the decline and fall of Elaine Garzarelli? <VBG>
:
:--Db
:

Last I heard Ms. G. was still on her perch. I know she enjoys a
diminshed reputation on this list, but has she really fallen? She is
still called in every 6 months or so to chirp and smile her
predictions on PBS. Is she not a CEO?=20

Dan

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc
Date: 26 Sep 1998 09:00:09 -0700 (PDT)

<<Last I heard Ms. G. was still on her perch. I know she enjoys a
diminshed reputation on this list, but has she really fallen? She is
still called in every 6 months or so to chirp and smile her
predictions on PBS.>>

She's still around, and memories are short, but she isn't accorded the
oracle status she once had.  A lot of people lost too much money.  She
didn't just stub her toe, she smashed into a glass door face first.

<<Is she not a CEO?>>

Of her own company.  She probably wouldn't have been so vilified if
she hadn't been involved in so much arrogant self-promotion.  I think
Abby and Ralph are well aware of what happened there and are trying
hard not to give the impression that they have a trunkline to God.
Once they stumble, I suspect they'll be forgiven pretty quickly.

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 26 Sep 1998 10:35:05 -0700

Greenspan doesn't lower rates by 1/2%, only 1/4% at a time, so I say a quarter
now and a quarter in Nov. at the next meeting.

At 10:35 PM 9/25/98 -0400, you wrote:
>I think the Fed will lower rates Tuesday, probably by 1/2%.
>What choice do they have, outright financial system collapse or a bit of
>inflation down the road a piece?
>

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 26 Sep 1998 18:59:17 GMT

On Sat, 26 Sep 98 00:09:43 PDT, you wrote:


:
:     "It sends very questionable signals about our markets. We tell =
other
:     countries that capital cronyism is bad and then we do something
:     similar,'' said Richard Schwartz, who oversees $22 billion in bonds=
 at
:     New York Life Asset Management.       --- Reuters
:
:Walter Stock
:Oakville, ONT - Canada
:

I have not a deep insight into this, but saw a 5 minute piece on PBS
about it where they interviewed a man close to the situation.
"Cronyism" seems at least somewhat apt. What apparently took place is
that a group of large banks were brought together and asked if they
would not oversee the crisis. They elected to manage. What they get is
liability and a chance to make a lot of money if the investments of
the sinking hedge fund do reasonably well. They were willing to take
that risk. It therefore looks like a consorted business decision.
That's my take on this. They make it all seem like one of life's
miraculous events, like the Dream Team, however. Perhaps it is, on
some level. But it wouldn't surprise me if they don't make a bundle
saving the sinking ship.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 26 Sep 1998 17:13:28 EDT

Yes Tim. Why not 1/8, 1/16 or 1/32?

In a message dated 9/26/98 1:41:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time, [e-mail]
writes:

<< Subj:     Re: [CANSLIM] M
 Date:    9/26/98 1:41:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time
 From:    [e-mail] (Tim Fisher)
 Sender:    [e-mail]
 Reply-to:    [e-mail]
 To:    [e-mail]

 Greenspan doesn't lower rates by 1/2%, only 1/4% at a time, so I say a
quarter
 now and a quarter in Nov. at the next meeting.

 At 10:35 PM 9/25/98 -0400, you wrote:
 >I think the Fed will lower rates Tuesday, probably by 1/2%.
 >What choice do they have, outright financial system collapse or a bit of
 >inflation down the road a piece?
 >

 Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
 Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
 PFB Information
 mailto:[e-mail]
 WWW http://OreRockOn.com

 - >>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 26 Sep 1998 15:16:44 -0700

Look at the historic interest rate chart. Since Greenspan the decreases have
been 1/4 pt. at a time, no more, no less.

At 05:13 PM 9/26/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Yes Tim. Why not 1/8, 1/16 or 1/32?
>
>In a message dated 9/26/98 1:41:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail]
>writes:
>
><< Subj:       Re: [CANSLIM] M
> Date: 9/26/98 1:41:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time
> From: [e-mail] (Tim Fisher)
> Sender:       [e-mail]
> Reply-to:     [e-mail]
> To:   [e-mail]
>
> Greenspan doesn't lower rates by 1/2%, only 1/4% at a time, so I say a
>quarter
> now and a quarter in Nov. at the next meeting.
>
> At 10:35 PM 9/25/98 -0400, you wrote:
> >I think the Fed will lower rates Tuesday, probably by 1/2%.
> >What choice do they have, outright financial system collapse or a bit of
> >inflation down the road a piece?
> >
>
> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
> PFB Information
> mailto:[e-mail]
> WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>
> - >>
>
>-
>
Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] LTCM
Date: 26 Sep 1998 11:43:01 +0200

Dean,

We are certainly climbing a wall of worry the last few weeks.

I had to laugh a bit when I read the following comment about LTCM:

"You can't put $4 Billion to work leveraged 20 to 1. But you won't be
humiliated on the front pages of the WSJ and NYT like LTCM's Nobel
Laureates, Harvard professors and former Salomon Liars' Poker players.

If you kick yourself from time to time when you make an investing or
trading mistake, just remember you didn't take your fund from $4 billion to
$500 million in eight weeks.  And you're probably not personally and
professionally bankrupt as a consequence."

The "eight weeks" is also interesting. This 'news' must have doing the
rounds before it became news for the rest of us during the last few days.

At 01:21 PM 26-09-98 +1200, you wrote:
>They say the market rises on a wall of worry. So the article below must be
>healthy for the market :-) Does anyone think this have any impact on the US
>market. If not, why  is the Federal Reserve getting involved then?
>Where there is one cockroack lurking in the cup-board, there is usually more
>to be found. Methinks there might be some Japanese banks invovled as well.
>
>$80b hedge fund threatened
>Long Term Capital Management, one of the world's biggest hedge funds with
>US$80 billion, could still collapse despite a bail-out brokered by the
>Federal Reserve.
>
>The US fund was pluncked from the brink by a US3.75 billion bail-out
>by at least 15 of the world's financial institutions. But its survival is
>not certain and the fallout  could be vast.
>
>This could have start to have a domino effect on US institutions and abroad.
>There is a real systemic risk. The Federal Reserve is clearly worried. "That
>is why they got involved," a Standard and Poor' Ratings Group director,
>Tanya Azarchs, said.
>
>Financial stocks from Zurich to New York fell on concern that the full
>extent of the damage -- both to Long-Term Capital's creditors and to other
>hedge funds that followed similar strategies -- was not yet known.
>
>Early Friday, credit rating agencies Moody's Investors Service Inc. and
>Standard & Poor's Corp. said they were reviewing all major U.S. and European
>banks for possible downgrade.
>
>The Union Bank of Switzerland said it had already lost $US685 million from
>its direct stake in LTCM and other financial institutions are expected to
>follow suit.
>
>
>``We're scrutinizing every bank with emerging markets exposures, hedge fund
>exposures and other types of risky assets that could be impacted by these
>huge market movements,'' said Christopher Mahoney, managing director at
>Moody's.
>
>Long-Term's troubles raised concerns banks would pull back from all but the
>highest-quality borrowers, triggering a worldwide liquidity crunch.
>
>``The credit cycle has definitely turned,'' said Tanya Azarchs, director at
>Standard & Poor's.
>
>Standard & Poor's took the first shot at banks Friday by cutting its rating
>on Bankers Trust Corp. senior debt to A-minus from A. It cited the bank's
>heavy dealings with riskier clients.
>
>As banks and brokerages realign their securities portfolios to reflect a
>risk-averse global financial environment, major western bond markets seem to
>be holding strong.
>
>U.S. Treasuries were also higher late Friday.
>
>The LTCM debacle triggered fears that bad trades by the fund would lead to
>more market turnoil since hedge funds typically make leveraged speculative
>trades, often totalling more than 10 times the amount they initially put
>down.
>
>TCM, which boasts Nobel laureates Myron Schoeles and Robert Merton among its
>partners, was hit by massive losses on global markets in the flight to
>quality after Russia defaulted on its domestic debt more than a month ago.
>
>                                    - Reuter
>
>
>-
>
>

Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 26 Sep 1998 11:51:00 +0200

>Once and for all, put an end
>to this long slow torturous bear market!

Remember that only 10 weeks ago we were at new market highs. Patience... ;^)

>How To Tell The "Health" of the Stock Market At Any Time ...
>
>Check the New York Stock Exchange NYSE New Highs and New Lows every day. The
>"New Highs" are the stocks that have traded higher than their 52 week high
>price. The "New Lows" are stocks that have traded lower than their 52 week
>low price.
>
>If the number of NYSE New Lows consistently remains below 30, then we are in
>a relatively flat to strong market.
>
>If the number of NYSE New Lows consistently remains below 20, then we are in
>a  very strong (bull) market.
>
>If anyone has been making money in this market, let me know which stocks you
>have been buying, besides the big caps.

There must be a number of people who have been making big bucks in the
medical and Internet sectors lately. (I'm not one of them.)





Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 27 Sep 1998 00:09:21 -0400

At 11:51 9/26/98 +0200, you wrote:
>>Once and for all, put an end
>>to this long slow torturous bear market!
>
>Remember that only 10 weeks ago we were at new market highs. Patience... ;^)
>

Maybe for the narrow 'Blue Chips', but the Russell 2K hit its high on 4/21
and hasn't been back since. Since the R2000 stocks are populated with the
types of stocks that would qualify as a canslim candidate, it seems like it
has been going on for a longer than 10 weeks.

Regards,
Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 27 Sep 1998 04:46:59 GMT

On Sat, 26 Sep 1998 07:36:37 -0400, you wrote:

:>  I'm impressed with Jeffry's analysis that
:> Thursday looked like it would shape up to be a distribution day. He
:> had the nail on the head, and I was taken by surprise. However, I kept
:> my money in my pocket.
:
:
:But, it wasn't a "distribution day" in the WON sense, Dan.  Just a down
:day, more of a TA phenomenon on the "bear flag"/"wedge" formation we are
:in.  Bounced right of that trendline of that formation, and the 200 day
:moving average.
:
:Of course, everytime I make a comment on "M" lately, I open up IBD and
:read some contradiction to what I've come to trust over the years.  Time
:to cancel the subscription, I think.
:
:My call was for a gap up open and a close lower to unchanged on the day
:with an increase in volume. True 'distribution days' must show that
:increase in volume over the prior day's trade.  That we did not see.
:
:Jeffry
:
:BTW, I don't like this market.
:
OK. I was unaware of the <"bear flag"/"wedge" formation we are in.> .
Now, I was wondering how or where I could get the idea, and I went to
Yahoo, pulled up a one year chart on the Nas index and brought up the
MAs, and I think I probably see what you are talking about. That being
the 300 point VERY sharp drop at the end of August, followed by
September's sawtooth revival (the flag?). This (you are inferring) is
a pretty strong signal of another drop coming. I am not aware of the
pattern and its significance, but won't argue with this except to say
that I think that the FOMA meeting Tuesday, IF it brings a rate cut,
could signal an all bets off on this scenario. At least, it seems so
to me. They say the employment report Friday is very important, but
I'd have to think that the FOMA meeting Tuesday is 5 times as
important for "M".

Dan

[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail] (Dan Musicant)
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 27 Sep 1998 05:14:52 GMT

On Sat, 26 Sep 1998 15:16:44 -0700, you wrote:

:Look at the historic interest rate chart. Since Greenspan the decreases =
have
:been 1/4 pt. at a time, no more, no less.
:
On PBS, I saw another prediction of a 1/2 % cut on Tuesday. So Frank
may be right.

Dan
[e-mail]

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Long Term Asset Sales
Date: 27 Sep 1998 11:54:10 +0200

>>Remember that only 10 weeks ago we were at new market highs. Patience... ;^)
>>
>
>Maybe for the narrow 'Blue Chips', but the Russell 2K hit its high on 4/21
>and hasn't been back since.

Russell 2000 index? Oh yes, now I remember...

;^)

Big caps sure have been in vogue for a long time now.

Thanks for reminding me about the R2K.



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: 27 Sep 1998 08:41:50 -0400

History is a good precursor on this issue. Greenspan raises
aggressively (half a pt or more) but lowers cautiously (qtr pt at a
time). Raising is an accelerated effort to quickly halt inflation
before it does more severe damage, lowering is a "fine tuning" once
the trend has been halted or reversed.

In the current scenario, it is a bit different in that there have been
no recent changes, and if anything there are inflationary signals
(employment nrs among others). A reduction in rates would seem to be a
response to a slowing in economic growth, however latest figures don't
justify a cut, thus have to assume it is solely being considered as a
response to int'l issues, not domestic ones. Still I don't expect a
cut at the Sep meeting, just a bias shift towards a cut, with a qtr pt
cut likely at the next FOMC meeting.

A half pt cut now, or even at the next meeting, would be inflationary,
and strongly suggest to me that global conditions are far worse than
publicly perceived.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>Yes Tim. Why not 1/8, 1/16 or 1/32?
>
>In a message dated 9/26/98 1:41:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail]
>writes:
>
><< Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] M
> Date: 9/26/98 1:41:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time
> From: [e-mail] (Tim Fisher)
> Sender: [e-mail]
> Reply-to: [e-mail]
> To: [e-mail]
>
> Greenspan doesn't lower rates by 1/2%, only 1/4% at a time, so I say
a
>quarter
> now and a quarter in Nov. at the next meeting.
>
> At 10:35 PM 9/25/98 -0400, you wrote:
> >I think the Fed will lower rates Tuesday, probably by 1/2%.
> >What choice do they have, outright financial system collapse or a
bit of
> >inflation down the road a piece?
> >
>
> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
> PFB Information
> mailto:[e-mail]
> WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>
> - >>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Back on the internet
Date: 27 Sep 1998 10:14:27 -0400

Hurricane Georges has now cleared out of South Florida, and I'm back
on the net. Unfortunately, my ISP was without power even longer than
I, and suffered hardware and software damage as well, thus most of the
emails on Friday did not reach me. If anyone tried to contact me
privately or via the group address and I have not responded, then I
didn't get your email and you need to resend it.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Another 50day SMA crossing the 200day SMA this week
Date: 27 Sep 1998 17:59:00 -0400

The S&P500 Index 50day SMA crossed the 200day SMA going positive on
9/15/94.

A bit over 4 years ago!


On two occassions, July of 96 and October of 97, the SPX flirted with the
200 day SMA, but did not spend any serious time at that region.
Otherwise, it has been trending upward dragging the 50day SMA with it as
it goes. Comfortably climbing. That is until 8/27/98. It has now enjoyed
3 weeks beneath the 200day SMA. First since 94.


Given all that, the 50day SMA is poised to break beneath the 200day SMA
on or about Tuesday, unless it can quickly break above the 50 and hold.
Doubtful it will be able to, but speculative frenzies have done crazier
things.


However, the 200SMA, 50SMA and resistance line from August lows of
approx. 1066 will offer strong resistance to overcome. If it fails, then
by Wednesday the SPX will have a 50sma beneath the 200sma.


This may not be of any special significance, but is a technical condition
I wanted to bring to your attention.


Other Indexes technical conditions:

TRAN   - <color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>50 beneath the 200, 50
negative, 200 negative</color>.

DOW    - <color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>50 beneath the 200, 50
negative, 200 negative</color>.

UTIL   - <color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>50 above the 200, 50
positive, 200 positive</color>.

AMEX   - <color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>50 beneath the 200, 50
negative, 200 negative</color>.

NYSE   - <color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>50 beneath the 200, 50
negative</color>, <color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>200
positive</color>.

NASDAQ - <color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>50 above the 200</color>,
<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>50 negative</color>,
<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>200 positive</color>.

RUT    - <color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>50 beneath the 200, 50
negative, 200 negative</color>.

SPX    - <color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>50 above the 200</color>,
<color><param>ffff,0000,0000</param>50 negative</color>,
<color><param>0000,8080,0000</param>200 positive</color>.


Frank Wolynski

( A similar analysis can be done with the NASDAQ. It appears to have
until approx. Thursday or Friday before the 200 is violated by the 50.)




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Johan Van Houtven <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Quiet
Date: 28 Sep 1998 21:56:29 +0200

It is so quiet here, it is scarry...

B^)

P.S.: Chicken little here toke profits and is back to 100% cash. I wonder
what our group members have and are doing protfoloio-wise...



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quiet
Date: 28 Sep 1998 17:25:53 -0400

Had a small position in DELL, let it go this morning.
Back to 100% cash, for better or worse.

Frank Wolynski

At 21:56 9/28/98 +0200, you wrote:
>It is so quiet here, it is scarry...
>
>B^)
>
>P.S.: Chicken little here toke profits and is back to 100% cash. I wonder
>what our group members have and are doing protfoloio-wise...
>
>
>
>Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 28 Sep 1998 16:43:400 -0500

Dan wrote:


>>OK. I was unaware of the <"bear flag"/"wedge" formation we are in.> .
Now, I was wondering how or where I could get the idea, and I went to
Yahoo, pulled up a one year chart on the Nas index and brought up the
MAs, and I think I probably see what you are talking about. That being
the 300 point VERY sharp drop at the end of August, followed by
September's sawtooth revival (the flag?). This (you are inferring) is
a pretty strong signal of another drop coming. I am not aware of the
pattern and its significance, but won't argue with this except to say
that I think that the FOMA meeting Tuesday, IF it brings a rate cut,
could signal an all bets off on this scenario. At least, it seems so
to me. They say the employment report Friday is very important, but
I'd have to think that the FOMA meeting Tuesday is 5 times as
important for "M".

>>

Yeah, pull up any major index chart and you will see the same type
formation.  From the major reversal low of late we have made progressively
higher highs and higher lows.  The formation has some fairly strict
parameters, meaning you can draw nice trendlines across the highest highs
and the lowest lows in the formation and both uptrend nicely.  Price action
has been very well behaved within that pattern.

I don't know what the formation is, really, I only know it is being referred
to predominately as a "bear flag" by the bears, and as a "wedge" by the
bulls.  When the trendlines are ultimately breached, in either direction, I
suppose we'll know the answer.

Don't know about all your thougts on a rate cut, etc., but if Tom W. is
correct, and there's no cut, my gut says we'll retest the recent lows in
dramatic fashion.  Just hope I have the nads to short the thing around 1085
in the SP,lis if they'll run it there in anticipation tomorrow.

Jeff





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 28 Sep 1998 20:02:06 -0400

I am still expecting no rate cut tomorrow, and a sharp selloff in
reaction. Don't anybody bet the farm on my opinion, tho. As I said
before, Greenspan may be seeing more danger in not cutting than the
danger I see in an early cut, and may have been doing more than "just
talking down the dollar".

The degree of presumption that there will be a rate cut tomorrow
concerns me, no longer is there talk of "if there will be a cut", now
it seems only to be "how large will the cut be". Thus, if there is no
cut, it will not only tank the mkt, but force many to go back and
examine and reassess just what it was that Mr. G was saying.

"M" is quite fragile right now, a several hundred pt drop in a few
hours will cost us dearly. And I suspect the recent recovery in
several notable mkts comes more on expectation of US help, at least by
weakening the dollar thru rate cuts, if not with direct intervention
similar to what was done for a certain hedge fund, than thru any true
fundamental changes or reasons.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----

Don't know about all your thougts on a rate cut, etc., but if Tom W.
is
correct, and there's no cut, my gut says we'll retest the recent lows
in
dramatic fashion.  Just hope I have the nads to short the thing around
1085
in the SP,lis if they'll run it there in anticipation tomorrow.

Jeff





-



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 28 Sep 1998 17:10:18 -0700 (PDT)

<<if Tom W. is
correct, and there's no cut, my gut says we'll retest the recent lows
in
dramatic fashion.  Just hope I have the nads to short the thing around
1085
in the SP,lis if they'll run it there in anticipation tomorrow.>>

Maybe, maybe not.  During the last major correction, the retest from
the rally high was only 7%.  There is no rule that says we must retest
the lows.

--Db





_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: rolatzi <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 28 Sep 1998 18:17:44 -0700 (PDT)


A very dramatic moment seems to be unfolding.  I wonder if Greenspan
realizes or cares that the major averages are pushing up against the
50 MA resistance?  Any suggestions for a put to buy some insurance?

Ciao,
rolatzi

---dbphoenix <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> <<if Tom W. is
> correct, and there's no cut, my gut says we'll retest the recent lows
> in
> dramatic fashion.  Just hope I have the nads to short the thing around
> 1085
> in the SP,lis if they'll run it there in anticipation tomorrow.>>
>
> Maybe, maybe not.  During the last major correction, the retest from
> the rally high was only 7%.  There is no rule that says we must retest
> the lows.
>
> --Db
>
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
> -
>
>

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Walter Stock" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M",  Greenspan, Long Term Capital
Date: 28 Sep 1998 21:23:39 PDT

> I am still expecting no rate cut tomorrow, and a sharp selloff in
> reaction. Don't anybody bet the farm on my opinion, tho. As I said
> before, Greenspan may be seeing more danger in not cutting than the
> danger I see in an early cut, and may have been doing more than "just
> talking down the dollar".

Hi Tom,

Glad that the worst of hurricane Georges passed you by.

"M" is getting more complicated than I can remember.
I think we will see a rate cut tomorrow, not least because of
the bailout at Long Term Capital.   I have been giving this
some thought, and looking back,  I realized that at the time
of Greenspan's testimony last week, he may already have had
early warning of the meltdown.  If so, it would explain why he
looked (to me at least) a little more urgent than usual.

So why were all these major players so eager to fork over
$300 million each for LTCM?   Perhaps because the alternative was
too horrible (Barron's seemed to say that on the weekend).

A more cynical explanation is that only those involved in
the rescue get to look in Long Term's books and find out
what their trading positions are.
If you know what the trades are and you know that the trades
have to be unwound,  you can make an absolute killing
in the marketplace.  A Reuters newswire piece on
quote.yahoo.com tonight suggests that this may already be underway :

       Even as details of the deal were being worked out, some banks were
       already trading based on expectations of dumping Long-Term Capital=
's
       bonds and derivatives, traders said.

       The most visible impact Monday was in the British sterling interes=
t rate
       swaps market, traders said. The gap between the 10-year swap rate =
and
       British government bonds, or gilts, increased to 93 basis points =
from 85
       basis points on Friday in the 10-year maturity, dealers said....

       Long-Term is believed to have a short position in British gilts =
and a
       long position in sterling swaps, traders said.

       In Eurobond futures, Goldman Sachs sold a whopping 10,000 contract=
s
       between Friday and Monday which traders claimed was an unwinding =
of a
       transaction with Long-Term. Officials at Goldman did not return
       phone calls.      ---- Reuters

An even more cynical suggestion is the internet rumour (no more than a =
rumour)
that the Long Term rescuers had read a rate cut reward into the private =
comments
of the New York Fed at the bailout meeting.

My guess?

Chance of 1/2 point rate cut:   55 %
Chance of 1/4 point rate cut:   40 %
Chance of no rate cut: 5%   (only happens if Greenspan fails to persuade =
hawks).

This is only my estimate.  Use at own risk!

I agree Tom, that "M" is fragile.  I think we may see a selloff even with=
 a rate cut.
The old "buy on the rumour, sell on the news" thing.

My trades tomorrow (if any) will be strictly daytrades.

Walter Stock
Oakville, ONT - Canada


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "John Adair, M.D." <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 28 Sep 1998 20:41:27 -0500

I guess I missed the bear flag/wedge formation information and am surprised to
hear this .
I feel the market has already factored in the rate cut and likely wont Have that
much an impact unless it doesn't happen. The # of stocks in 'A' and B
accumulation had returned to almost where it was in Jan- march. I predict more
sideways movement except for Dell. I think someone had tied a tin can to its
tail

Jeffry White wrote:

> Dan wrote:
>
> >>OK. I was unaware of the <"bear flag"/"wedge" formation we are in.> .
> Now, I was wondering how or where I could get the idea, and I went to
> Yahoo, pulled up a one year chart on the Nas index and brought up the
> MAs, and I think I probably see what you are talking about. That being
> the 300 point VERY sharp drop at the end of August, followed by
> September's sawtooth revival (the flag?). This (you are inferring) is
> a pretty strong signal of another drop coming. I am not aware of the
> pattern and its significance, but won't argue with this except to say
> that I think that the FOMA meeting Tuesday, IF it brings a rate cut,
> could signal an all bets off on this scenario. At least, it seems so
> to me. They say the employment report Friday is very important, but
> I'd have to think that the FOMA meeting Tuesday is 5 times as
> important for "M".
>
> >>
>
> Yeah, pull up any major index chart and you will see the same type
> formation.  From the major reversal low of late we have made progressively
> higher highs and higher lows.  The formation has some fairly strict
> parameters, meaning you can draw nice trendlines across the highest highs
> and the lowest lows in the formation and both uptrend nicely.  Price action
> has been very well behaved within that pattern.
>
> I don't know what the formation is, really, I only know it is being referred
> to predominately as a "bear flag" by the bears, and as a "wedge" by the
> bulls.  When the trendlines are ultimately breached, in either direction, I
> suppose we'll know the answer.
>
> Don't know about all your thougts on a rate cut, etc., but if Tom W. is
> correct, and there's no cut, my gut says we'll retest the recent lows in
> dramatic fashion.  Just hope I have the nads to short the thing around 1085
> in the SP,lis if they'll run it there in anticipation tomorrow.
>
> Jeff
>
> -


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan; etc.
Date: 28 Sep 1998 21:48:43 -0400

I believe CNBC only mentioned 3,287 times, that tomorrows rate cut was
really only a matter of how much, not if! I didn't get the exact number, I
am interpolating from my enormous experience gained from counting lightning
strikes in West Central Florida. I monitored CNBC for brief periods and it
was the 'subject de jour'. It felt absolutely eerie! At one point I noticed
the hosts give each other a side glance when they mentioned it, with a
little twinkle in their eyes.

I can't help but feel absolutely in the dark as to the ramifications of
cutting rates, with no hard economic data to support the cut. There are so
many ifs/thens and maybes out there. It is comforting to know the markets
will not go straight up, hit the bell and someone else will walk away with
all the cash in the world. I feel no compulsion to trade tomorrow in any
direction.

If anything maybe short the spyders once the thick briefcase is spotted and
the tick hits +600, a big if. This time on paper only! I don't know
Greenspeak well  enough and the undertones of worldwide and now domestic
economic troubles are  enough to give anyone the heebee jeebies.

Besides, all my indicators point down. Interest rates or not!

Cash in my pocket, I'll live to trade another day!
Frank Wolynski

At 20:02 9/28/98 -0400, you wrote:
>I am still expecting no rate cut tomorrow, and a sharp selloff in
>reaction. Don't anybody bet the farm on my opinion, tho. As I said
>before, Greenspan may be seeing more danger in not cutting than the
>danger I see in an early cut, and may have been doing more than "just
>talking down the dollar".
>
>The degree of presumption that there will be a rate cut tomorrow
>concerns me, no longer is there talk of "if there will be a cut", now
>it seems only to be "how large will the cut be". Thus, if there is no
>cut, it will not only tank the mkt, but force many to go back and
>examine and reassess just what it was that Mr. G was saying.
>
>"M" is quite fragile right now, a several hundred pt drop in a few
>hours will cost us dearly. And I suspect the recent recovery in
>several notable mkts comes more on expectation of US help, at least by
>weakening the dollar thru rate cuts, if not with direct intervention
>similar to what was done for a certain hedge fund, than thru any true
>fundamental changes or reasons.
>
>Tom W
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Jeffry White <[e-mail]>
>To: [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
>Date: Monday, September 28, 1998 6:08 PM
>Subject: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan; etc.
>
>Don't know about all your thougts on a rate cut, etc., but if Tom W.
>is
>correct, and there's no cut, my gut says we'll retest the recent lows
>in
>dramatic fashion.  Just hope I have the nads to short the thing around
>1085
>in the SP,lis if they'll run it there in anticipation tomorrow.
>
>Jeff
>
>
>
>
>
>-
>
>
>
>-
>
>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] One more on tomorrows "RATE DROP", then I'm off to bed! I
Date: 28 Sep 1998 22:24:11 -0400


Fed seen venturing into hazardous global territory

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's success in presiding
over the best U.S. economy in decades may be drawing the U.S. central bank
into a global role beyond its mandate, Fed watchers said on Monday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting on Tuesday amid
widespread market expectations it will lower the 5.50-percent federal funds
rate by at least 25 basis points.

"(Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan is trying to show an element of leadership
in global financial markets at a time when nervousness and uncertainty is
at an extremely high level," said Daiwa Securities America chief economist
Michael Moran, who noted the absence of global initiatives to solve global
financial markets' woes.

INTERNATIONAL EVENTS' SPILLOVER FEARS

"Greenspan is feeling such an intense sense of pressure from around the
world, he concluded he has to take the lead," said Moran, who acknowledged
the U.S.-only case for an easing was not overwhelming at this stage.

Greenspan, mindful of the Fed's domestic mandate, detailed the U.S.
rationale for an easing, telling the Senate Budget Committee last week "the
most recent more virulent phase of the (international) crisis had infected
our markets as well."

"The Fed may be attempting to do more than it should be doing. I don't
think it's going to solve the problems of the world but I don't think it is
going to hurt the U.S. economy," Daiwa's Moran also said. "They are not
going to solve the problems in Asia, simply signal they are aware of the
problems and watching closely."

A Fed source told Reuters the key to Fed policy under Greenspan "is not to
seek the optimal policy, but the policy that presents the least risk of
causing damage if wrong."

The source said the Fed has room to ease because the odds of a U.S.
inflation flare-up were currently very low "whether the Fed cuts rates a
little bit or not."

The source also noted it had been difficult for the Fed in the past to
estimate the impact of a rate move on financial markets. FOMC minutes have
repeatedly cited concern about a possibly "outsized" market reaction to a
rate change.

THE FED AND CONCERN OVER FINANCIAL MARKETS' LIQUIDITY

Former Fed governor Lawrence Lindsey warned in an opinion piece in the Wall
Street Journal on Monday "the global effect of feeding the American equity
bubble is even more problematic."

"Global investors now have every incentive to allocate even more money to
'fully valued' American equities. That means less capital in high-risk
areas like Asia and Latin America, making their recovery even more
distant," Lindsey also remarked.

Talk of a Fed easing is rising as financial markets around the world,
including U.S. high-yielders, are seeing their financing channels dry up
amid renewed risk aversion widening most spreads. These issues were
highlighted last week by the last-minute rescue of the troubled hedge fund
Long-Term Capital Management.

"The Fed cannot solve the world's problems. But an easing would be an
important gesture at a time when there has been a sudden retreat from
risk-taking and massive deleveraging," said Nomura Securities International
managing director David Resler.

"The hope is that people would be less averse to lending to market players
because there is no other central bank in the world that is willing or able
to prevent a financial implosion," Resler added.

MARKET MAY LEAD THE FED AGAIN AS IN 1994

Traders said one risk the Fed may be facing is that the Treasury market
will take the lead in monetary policy by pricing in more easing than the
Fed intends to implement.

In February 1994, FOMC members were stunned at the abrupt Treasuries
sell-off sparked by an initial 25-point hike -- the first in five years.

The long-bond yield went from a then-record low of 5.75 percent to a high
around 8.0 percent in just one year and did not stabilize until the Fed
resorted to a bold 75-point hike in November 1994.

"What is very difficult for anyone to guess is whether the Fed easing will
calm markets or fuel a fresh Treasury market rally that could further
distort spreads," one trader at a European brokerage firm said.

"That's why the market will be particularly careful about the wording of
the Fed's announcement to get a sense of future policy," the trader added.

The FOMC'S decision is expected to be released on Tuesday around 1415
EDT/1815 GMT.

14:51 09-28-98





-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] A Killing in Stocks! Literally!
Date: 28 Sep 1998 22:37:15 -0400

Just too weird!
FVW

Former Fuji Bank Employee Admits Killing Couple to Hide Losses

Tokyo, Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) - A former employee of Fuji Bank Ltd., Japan's
sixth-largest nationwide lender, admitted to killing two elderly clients at
their home in Miyashiro, Saitama prefecture, to conceal losses on
investments they had entrusted to him, the Mainichi Daily News reported,
without citing sources. Terumitsu Okafuji, 32, said in court that he
strangled Jiro Fukuda, 74, and his 64-year-old wife, Tsune,
after he lost 2.5 million yen of the couple's money. The lost funds came
from 5.7 million yen that the couple had given him to deposit in an
investment trust company, the report said.

Top Japanese banks including Fuji Bank were implicated in an
entertainment-for-favors scandal earlier this year; prosecutors suspect
executives of private banks wined and dined Bank of Japan officials in
return for information on which banks would be audited and when.

(Mainichi Daily News, 9/29, P.16)

20:33:25 09/28/1998

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Dan Cash <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Japan
Date: 28 Sep 1998 21:38:56 -0700

Last week Frank forwarded an analysis of the needs of Japan and the
needs of Clinton in their upcoming meeting.  Enclosed is a followup
from same source:

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
September 29, 1998

Obuchi Refloats Idea of Asian Monetary Fund

President Clinton clearly resisted the temptation to play the
savior last week, sending Japanese Prime Minister Obuchi home
empty handed.  Whether Clinton was showing extraordinary good
sense, was relieved at public reaction to his Grand Jury
testimony, or was hemmed in by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan's refusal to countenance a coordinated interest rate
cut is immaterial.  Clinton resisted.  Interestingly, Greenspan
then went on to announce the likelihood of interest rate cuts,
which buoyed world markets without decreasing pressure on
Japanese banks.

The consequences of Obuchi's failure to extract American help
started to appear Sunday night, as Japan Leasing Corporation went
bankrupt -- over $16 billion in debt and with no hope of
recovery.  The hopelessness of its situation was made clear in
Japan's Diet, which finally hammered out an agreement that
appeared to have some possibility of lasting longer than a day.
The agreement saw the Japanese ruling LDP abandon its position
that government funds should be used to save ailing financial
institutions.  In a compromise with its opponents, the LDP agreed
that funding would be provided to buyers of ailing banks, but not
to the banks themselves.  In other words, depositors would be
saved, along with some investors, but the management of the banks
would be punished.  With all hope lost, Japan Leasing, a
subsidiary of the ailing Long Term Credit Bank of Japan, went
under.  Japanese markets actually rose on the news, relieved that
the blood-letting was about to begin.

In the midst of this excruciating process, the Japanese
leadership is desperately searching for a policy to call its own.
Recognizing finally that Japan's problem and Asia's are one and
the same, Japan is refloating a potentially historical idea.
According to Japan's Kyodo News Service, Japan will propose at
the upcoming G-7 meeting that an Asian Monetary Fund be
organized.  According to Kyodo, which is usually well informed,
Japanese diplomats are now in the process of coordinating with
other Asian countries to present a coherent framework.  This idea
was proposed previously by Japan and other Asian countries, but
was rejected by the United States.  Obuchi seems to have decided
that if Clinton was not prepared to help Japan, then Japan was
under no obligation to remain within the American conceptual
framework.

The basic idea of an Asian Monetary Fund is the same one that
underlies the International Monetary Fund.  Asian countries would
pool their remaining foreign reserves and use that war chest to
defend the currencies of weaker countries when faced by sudden
and unexpected outflows of capital.  This is the role that the
IMF is supposed to play.  However, IMF funding usually comes with
strict requirements, including budget cuts, closing failing
financial institutions, writing off bad loans, and opening
markets to foreign competition.  In this sense, the IMF is
increasingly seen by Asia as an American tool, used to pry open
closed markets and destabilize potential competitors.

Since the Japanese are not getting much direct help from the
U.S., and since the IMF has become increasingly suspect
throughout the region, an Asian Monetary Fund has become an
increasingly important idea.  It would be expected that it would
provide funds without the onerous requirements of the IMF.  This
would mean that the existing social and economic structures would
not be destabilized.  In other words, an Asian Monetary Fund
would do what the IMF does without the toll that IMF help exacts.

Of course, there is more than a bit of fantasy involved here.
All of Asia is in financial meltdown and monetary reserves have
drained out of the region.  The idea that Asia can collectively
protect their currency, where not one of them has been able to do
so, is arithmetically dubious.  First, it assumes that there is a
reserve to draw on.  Second, it assumes that financial imbalances
will courteously queue up, allowing a limited asset to be
sequentially allocated.  Finally, it assumes that stronger
nations will willingly pool sufficient cash to protect weaker
nations, in spite of the fact that this will increase their own
vulnerability.

In spite of these obvious weaknesses, the idea has a growing body
of supporters in Asia.  It is a logical expression of the growing
Asianist bloc in the region.  It also is said to have some
American supporters, like Paul Volcker, former Federal Reserve
Chairman, whom former Prime Minister Miyazawa claims is in favor
of it.  It is certainly not something entirely against U.S.
interests, since it forces Asia to clean up its own mess and
excuses the U.S. from any action.  In the long run, however, an
Asian Monetary Fund has profound implications.

Given its obvious weaknesses, such a fund could not function in
the short-term without some degree of regional currency control.
For the reasons given, the AMF could not, by itself, stanch the
outflow of money from a major country, like Korea.  However, its
infrastructure could serve as an instrument for the
administration of regional currency controls.  If that were done,
short-term fluctuations could be avoided, while the reserve fund
could be organized as an Asian version of the Eurodollar to
facilitate regional trade.

It is extraordinary how far we have gone.  Japan, which has
eschewed regional political leadership and which has benefitted
most from Breton Woods, is now essentially moving to create a yen
bloc.  We suspect that this is not what Obuchi really wants.  By
leaking that he is planning to offer the proposal at the G-7
meeting, he is trying to warn the United States of the
consequences of its unwillingness to help Japan.  As a bluff it
is unlikely to work.  A massive U.S. bailout of Asia is not going
to happen in the current American political climate.

Therefore we are in a classic situation where a desperate bluff
may well turn out to be policy.  Since Japan and the rest of Asia
cannot genuinely restructure their economies without being
willing to endure social upheaval, they are going to trade long-
term recovery for short-term stability.  This has been their
policy all along.  It is a policy that has so enervated their
economies that the only way to maintain their dilatory policies
is with a modest step with radical implications.  If Asia creates
an Asian Monetary Fund, it will not stop until it creates an
Asian currency bloc under Japanese leadership.  When that
happens, and we believe it will, the very texture of the
international system will have changed irretrievably.  We are
entering a world of regions, replacing the much-vaunted global
economy.

___________________________________________________

To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at
http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to [e-mail]
___________________________________________________

STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: [e-mail]




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From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Bloomberg Business Report - Interesting Reading
Date: 28 Sep 1998 22:14:21 -0400

I found this tonight and thought since the current discussion was on
tomorrow's big, whopping, gala event, "RATE CUT", I would post it. It is a
very interesting treatment of the subject.
Frank Wolynski

After the Fed Cuts Rates -- Then What?: Maggie Mahar

New York, Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Tomorrow, Alan Greenspan is scheduled to
save the world.

The pressure on the Federal Reserve Chairman is immense. If he fails to
announce a much-awaited interest rate cut, the shock would rock stock
markets 'round the globe. Most observers are convinced that he will
deliver, but questions remain:

Will it be a cut of 25 basis points? Fifty basis points? Will this be is
the first in a series of cuts?

Leaving aside questions of whether he will or he won't -- and by how much
-- there's one question I can't help but ask: ''What good will it do?''

The problem facing Western markets isn't that interest rates are too high,
but that prices and profits are too low. Stock markets in Europe and the
U.S. have been plummeting on earnings reports. Would lower rates boost
earnings?

``Absolutely not,'' says Ken Goldstein, at the New York- based Conference
Board. ``We've already had the monetary stimulus of low rates -- we've seen
the long bond approaching 5 percent. And, with the cost of commodities
sliding, we've had the fiscal stimulus of lower prices.''

Turmoil

If anything, a U.S. interest rate cut could add to the turmoil at home and
abroad.

In theory, if the Fed cut rates, both consumers and companies would borrow
more and spend more -- stimulating the economy.

U.S. consumers are already spending freely -- personal spending rose by 0.6
percent in August alone while personal income jumped 0.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the savings rate is at an historic low -- under 1 percent. How
much more could consumers spend?

The problem for manufacturers in both the U.S. and Europe isn't that
shoppers are buying less, but that they're paying lower prices -- and
buying more foreign goods.

And the price of those foreign goods -- mainly Asian -- continues to drop.

``Import prices for August were down 6.4 percent over August '97 -- up from
a 5.6 percent decline in July,'' says David Orr, chief economist at First
Union's Capital Markets Group.

Meanwhile, imports from Asia last month climbed 12.8 percent year-on-year
in terms of volume, Orr points out. By the same measure, imports from Japan
are up 6.3 percent.

Inflation

That's one reason earnings aren't growing at the double- digit rates needed
to sustain stock prices. But the fact is, says Orr, you can't expect to
have both low inflation and double-digit profit growth:

``If you manage to maintain the good news on the inflation front, you pay
for it with lower profit margins. In the real world, you can have 1 1/2
percent inflation, but profit margins fall. The market has been pricing
stocks as if you could have both -- and that's just not tenable.''

``The stock  market could easily go down by another 10 percent,'' Orr
predicts ``I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped by 25 percent.''

But that's precisely why we need interest rate cuts, say the advocates. As
share prices slide consumers will feel poorer - -  and spend less. (Who
knows, they might even save.)

Charge It!

Yet it's not clear how the Fed could fill shopping malls. An interest rate
cut is not like a tax cut - it doesn't put money in citizens' pockets; it
just makes it easier to use credit cards. (At best, those who refinance
their mortgages would wind up with extra cash, but in most cases, the
transaction costs of refinancing a $100,000 mortgage will eat up the first
year's savings.)

But wouldn't lower rates spark the housing market by making mortgages more
affordable? ``With mortgage rates already anticipating a Fed ease, there's
no reason to expect that an actual ease would change the housing picture,''
says Orr. Indeed, he points out, housing is already booming: ``Economists
talked about the housing market `slowing' only because `August was 5.5
percent below the virtually unheard of level of 1.71 million in July. In fact
August housing starts of 1.51 million were, by any reading of historical
data, very high.

``Going forward, even if starts stay close to these `boom' levels, they
will not contribute to GDP growth,''  he adds.

The commercial real estate market also appears to be peaking. Is that
because developers can't borrow enough to build more?

Not according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.  Earlier
this month, the OCC warned terms for real estate loans are already getting
too loose. Of the banks it surveyed, it found 43 percent had relaxed
standards for real estate loans, while only six percent had tightened. The
OCC also cautioned that the level of risk on credit card and other types of
consumer loans has climbed  to perilous heights.

Indeed, in the U.S. easy money may be part of the problem, not the
solution.

Hold the Espresso

In theory, lower rates will allow U.S. companies to borrow more and expand
their business, but there's little evidence that what's crimping profits is
a lack of investment capital. To the contrary, signs of over-capacity in
industries ranging from chemical and steel to autos and micro-processor are
mounting.  As for smaller businesses, bankers have been generous to a fault
suggested the OCC, naming ``loans to mid-sized businesses'' as an area where
standards have loosened.

We just don't need more micro-chip factories -- or more coffee bars.

Where liquidity is needed, of course, is in emerging markets. But the
credit crunch there was created by the market, not central bankers. And
even a 50 basis point cut won't send either lenders or investors rushing to
pour money into Indonesia, Korea or Brazil. If Treasuries pay less,
investors might consider taking a risk on corporate debt -but the
opportunity to make another 1/2 percent won't persuade risk-adverse
portfolio managers to buy bonds in
Brazil

Nor would a U.S. rate cut lighten the burden significantly for Asian
countries carrying dollar-denominated foreign debt. Again, the  problem is
not that the interest rate on the debt is too steep -- but that they're
trying to repay in devalued currencies.

Granted, if a rate cut were big enough, it might push the dollar low enough
to make a difference. But a weak dollar would create other problems for
exporters in Japan, Brazil -- and even in Europe. Suddenly, their exports
would no longer be as cheap.

Psych Out

By far the strongest argument for Fed action is psychological -- a rate cut
could boost the confidence of markets worldwide. But trying to fine-tune
the markets' moods is a tricky business. (Playing with people's heads is
always dangerous.)

Tomorrow, for example, I suspect that Greenspan will announce a cut of just
1/4 percent -- and markets will be bitterly disappointed. Trouble is, share
prices have already moved up on the expectation of Fed action. If Greenspan
promises less than 50 basis points, my guess is that ungrateful markets
will tumble.

And by trying to do more, the Fed might only stir up the pot, creating more
uncertainty at a time when the financial world is already in flux. For it's
impossible to predict what effect a '98 rate cut would have six months done
the road -- when any real impact would be felt.

That's why Euro bankers refuse to consider the idea. The debut of the Euro
is their first concern - they can't afford any more uncertainty. (Nor can
the world.)

Managing the Bubble

The problem in the end is the Fed has put itself in a position where it's
expected to manage the world economy. ``and now it's in the business of
bubble management,'' says Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate
Observer.

``Risk has been over-priced, credit has become ever more abundant and
cheaper. A Fed funds rate of 3 percent was the starting pistol,'' says
Grant. ``And as long as the Fed funds rate was set low, it was an effective
narcotic.''

``Now the Fed is appalled at what it helped to create -- excess speculation
-- and it's supposed to help the real economy without re-igniting  the
boom. ''

Try to imagine a bubble collapsing in an orderly fashion.

15:04:31 09/28/1998




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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: rolatzi <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Not: delayed quotes nice web page
Date: 29 Sep 1998 08:17:27 -0700 (PDT)

A very useful delayed quote, chart, delayed live transactions.  Check
it out.

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quiet
Date: 28 Sep 1998 18:30:42 -0700

95%+ IN. Creamed the indices today. One stock out of 10 I own went down since
last Monday when I juped back in. Scared shitless about tomorrow.

At 09:56 PM 9/28/98 +0200, you wrote:
>It is so quiet here, it is scarry...
>
>B^)
>
>P.S.: Chicken little here toke profits and is back to 100% cash. I wonder
>what our group members have and are doing protfoloio-wise...
>
>
>
>Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.
>

Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
PFB Information
mailto:[e-mail]
WWW http://OreRockOn.com



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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCANSLIM--Broker Query
Date: 16 Sep 1998 11:45:07 -0700 (PDT)


Would anyone who's had experience with Web Street Securities please
contact me directly?

--Db



_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From:    "Joe Barger" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Volume Info.
Date: 29 Sep 1998 08:48:15 -0700

Does anyone know of a source (preferably free) that provides realtime (or
delayed) percent volume change from the previous day or from a moving
average for the major indices (perhaps on an hourly basis)?  I'd like to get
an idea of how the volume during the day stacks up against the previous day
or some average.  The same info for particular stocks would be useful also.

Thanks

joe



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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CBTSY
Date: 29 Sep 1998 09:44:56 -0700 (PDT)


From Briefing.com:

CBT GROUP PLC (CBTSY) 11 1/16 -4 1/8. The recent earnings warning and
collapse of CBTSY shares are providing an important lesson to
investors: The "rogue" analyst is usually the one worth following.
Investors who purchased shares of this educational software company
following reassuring comments two weeks ago by Piper Jaffray and BT
Alex. Brown understand what
we are referring to.

Story: CBTSY shares tumbled 28% from $55.375 on September 14 after
Hambrecht & Quist analyst Genni Combes voiced concern that the death
of a key official's son could cause delays in closing contracts in
Europe.

Reassurance: Piper Jaffray reiterated its "strong buy" rating, stating
it had not seen any changes in the company's performance guidance to
prompt an
alteration to its viewpoint and based on management's confidence in
fundamentals, Piper believed that the stock's decline presented a good
buying opportunity. Although BT. Alex. Brown did cut its rating (from
strong buy to buy), the firm emphasized that it fully expected CBTSY
to meet Q3 and FY earnings estimates of $0.22 and $0.87, respectively.

Credibility Lost: Yesterday, after the stock had already tumbled
almost 9 points, CBTSY announced that due to softness in orders for
September and failure to close a $5-$6 million order, revenues and
earnings for the third quarter would be below analyst expectations.
The warning has prompted
 BT Alex. Brown to lower its Q3 earnings estimate from $0.22 to $0.15
(-32%) and reduce revenue projection from $51 mln to $44 million. For
fiscal years 1998 and 1999, Alex. Brown goes from $0.89 to $0.77
(-14%) and from $1.25 to $0.95 (-24%). Alex. Brown now believes that a
25%-35% growth rate might be a more appropriate benchmark versus the
40% rate it forecast two weeks ago.
Piper Perturbed: As for Piper Jaffray, the firm appears to be quite
disenchanted with CBTSY management. Not only does it slash its rating
from "strong buy" to "neutral," but the firm chops its Q3 EPS estimate
from $0.23 to $0.08 a share, a 65% reduction. Piper lowers its Q4 view
from $0.34 to $0.24 (-29%). The firm points out that CBTSY failed to
give any guidance on
estimates. Says that near-term upside is limited until the company
reports and speaks with analysts.

_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Volume Info.
Date: 29 Sep 1998 10:18:50 -0700 (PDT)


<<Does anyone know of a source (preferably free) that provides
realtime (or
delayed) percent volume change from the previous day or from a moving
average for the major indices (perhaps on an hourly basis)?  I'd like
to get
an idea of how the volume during the day stacks up against the
previous day
or some average.  The same info for particular stocks would be useful
also.

Thanks

joe>>

Bigcharts.com provides it from the previous day.

--Db




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: mikelu <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Quiet
Date: 29 Sep 1998 10:21:11 -0700

I'm 60% in. I bought half on Thursday and half yesterday. I just finished setting all my stops.

Mike

-----Original Message-----
Sent:    Monday, September 28, 1998 12:56 PM

It is so quiet here, it is scarry...

B^)

P.S.: Chicken little here toke profits and is back to 100% cash. I wonder
what our group members have and are doing protfoloio-wise...



Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V.




-



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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. IBD And Its Archives
Date: 29 Sep 1998 12:50:32 EDT

Canslim People,

     Recently I have been on jury duty, and now that I'm just getting my sea
legs again here are some IBD articles with information I believe would be
useful to those who didn't read the articles when they first came out, for one
reason or another. (The first 3 articles, under "26 Weeks to Investment
Success", you can obtain from IBD's Web site at
http//www.investors.com/index.html;this is also in the University section of
IBD on AOL [keyword: IBD].  On AOL you can also search for articles over a few
years old, including the 4th article below. AOLites you might want to search
using the words "investor's corner" [without the quotes). Unfortunately, IBD
on the Net, to my knowledge does not offer a "Search" feature for old
articles.)

Q&A With William O'Neil


Q&A With William O'Neil

How To Buy At Just The Right Moment

In the most recent installment of his investment series, William O'Neil talked
about why a stock's volume is so important. This week, IBD's chairman and
founder discusses how to interpret volume and
price. When sound patterns emerge, it's time to buy.

Q:As long as the fundamentals are solid, does it really matter when you buy a
stock?

 O'Neil:  We've all heard the saying, ''Timing is everything.'' This is just
as true in the stock market as it is in life. Knowing the optimal time to buy
and sell a stock is a valuable skill anyone can and should learn. In the next
two installments, I'm going to show you how to read a stock's daily or weekly
chart, which will give you a visual picture of how a stock's price and trading
volume change over a period of time and lend key clues to its future
performance.

Charts are helpful because they communicate critical information about how a
stock is acting in the real marketplace - information you would miss by
concentrating on fundamentals alone. Charts are graphic depictions of
historical price behavior. They allow you to identify current behavior in
relation to a stock's recent history.

 On a chart's price line, each bar represents a day's (or week's) price action
in terms of three variables. The top of the bar represents the highest price
the stock traded for that day or week. The bottom of the bar marks the low.
The horizontal intersecting slash shows where the stock closed for that
period. At the bottom of the chart is a graphic depiction of the volume of
shares that traded for that same period, daily or weekly.

 Q:But how do you make sense of all those bars and slashes?

 O'Neil:  We've discussed the importance of volume. Now let's make the
connection between volume and price. A constructive sign easily identified on
a chart is increased volume with the price moving up. This generally indicates
accumulation, or professional buying, of a stock. A sign of potential trouble,
or distribution (professional selling), is increased volume as a stock drops
in price.

 On the flip side, if the price is down but the volume is also down
significantly, there may be little cause for worry in that the decreased
volume shows the stock is not being heavily sold. However, like most things,
it's
not quite this simplistic. In the next installment, I will go over specific
exceptions to these generalities. I use both fundamental and technical
indicators, because there may be signals that appear in a chart,
on the technical side, that may precede public or professional changes in the
fundamentals. This is especially true when leading stocks hit their tops.

 During our 45-year study of the greatest stock market winners, in addition to
looking at fundamental measurements, we studied the technical indicators of
price and volume movements and patterns through
studying charts on all the outstanding stocks. What I found in common was that
price consolidation areas or specific types of ''base patterns'' formed in the
price history. These bases were formed just before the
stocks broke out into new high ground in price and then went on to make their
biggest gains.

Q:So what does a future big leader's chart ''base pattern'' look like just
before it's ready to break out to a new high in price and advance 100% to 200%
or more?

O'Neil:  There are three primary patterns. One of the most common is the ''cup
with handle.''
It was named such because it resembles the outline of a coffee cup with a
handle on the upper half of the cup (see graphic, Page A22). Shown is the
general shape of the chart pattern. A to B is the left-hand declining part of
the cup, B is the bottom rounding out process of the cup with the price going
back and forth for a few weeks, and from B to C, the stock rallies back up in
price to a point usually just below its old
high. Then C to D to E forms the handle. The entire area from Point A to Point
E is called the ''cup with handle.''

 Also, as part of the study of these winners, I identified an optimal buy
point, or ''pivot point,'' for a stock. How? This point, usually at the end of
a sound basing area when the stock price ''breaks out'' into new high ground,
is the point of least resistance. This means that at this point, the stock has
its greatest chance of moving even higher based on its current and historical
price and volume activity.

 In the ''cup with handle'' pattern shown, the correct time to buy the stock
would be as soon as it trades one-eighth of a point above the peak price in
the handle (CDE). While we call this a new high, it is actually a new high
breaking out of the handle trading range, which is usually a little below the
actual old high price at Point A. This gives you a slight jump or edge on the
stock.

 Q:Why don't you just buy at the bottom of the cup?

O'Neil:  People often feel uncomfortable waiting for a specific buy point,
especially because most of the time it is often at a higher price than the
basing area. They ask: ''Why not buy earlier at a cheaper price in order to
get a better deal? Why wait until it is up a few points higher before I buy?''
This concept seems contrary to how many of us operate. However, the objective
is not to buy at the cheapest price. The objective is to buy at the right time
-the time in which the chances are greatest the stock will succeed. I found
through our studies that a stock purchased at this correct ''pivot point,'' if
all the other factors of stock selection are in place, will not go down 8%
(your protective sell rule) and has the greatest chance of moving
substantially higher.

 On the day the stock breaks out, its trading volume should increase at least
50% above its average daily trading volume. It is important to have big
professional demand for your stock at this key buy point. Only IBD's unique
stock tables show you each stock's volume percent change daily.

 On our chart, the dashed line from X to A is called the ''prior uptrend.''
Strong, healthy stocks show at least 30% price increases in their prior
uptrend. A proper ''cup with handle'' must take at least seven or eight
weeks to form (from Point A to Point E). Otherwise, it may be unsound and fail
after its breakout. Some bases may actually be three, six or as many as 15
months in duration. Most decline 20% to 30% from their
absolute peak to the low of the cup (from A to B). Handles can be a short one
or two weeks or a number of weeks longer and need to drift downward along
their lows or have a shakeout (break below a prior week's low in the handle).
This serves the purpose of getting a needed pullback or price correction out
of the way.

 Proper handles rarely pull back in price more than 10% or 15% and will
usually show either a marked dry-
up in volume near their lows, which means there is no more selling coming into
the stock, or they will have several tight areas where the price varies only a
tiny amount and for several weeks may close virtually unchanged in price. This
is a constructive signal.

Q:Seems clear in theory, but do actual stocks really form such patterns?

O'Neil:  Here's a classic example of a cup-with-handle pattern: Microsoft in
January 1991, one week before it broke to new price highs and went on to more
than double in price. Its EPS Rank was 99 and its Relative Price Strength rank
was 96 at the time. Microsoft formed a 25-week base. It declined six weeks on
the downside from Point A, moved back and forth along the low of the cup at B,
then rallied up in November and then formed a very tight handle in the last
five or six weeks. Note the handle is in the
upper half of the overall pattern.

 I've placed arrows on six different weeks along the low and on the uptrend in
the base where volume (shown on the bottom of the chart) increases from the
week before with the price increasing. The two largest volume weeks were on
big up weeks in price with the price closing at the peak for the week. Note
also the extreme volume dry-up to the lowest level on the chart and the small
price movement in late December and early January.

 Your buy point is the peak in the handle area in January. Again, this is not
the lowest price, but the price at which your probability of being right is
highest. That's why you wait for the stock to hit this price before you buy.

 Until you get used to it, it will seem scary, strange and hard to believe
that the correct way to buy is to buy when a stock is around the highest point
it's ever been. In fact, 98% of individual investors never buy this way, and
that's why few will ever own, or fully capitalize on, the really big new
winners that occur year after year.

Next week I will discuss why buying stocks as they break out of bases into new
high ground has proven to be a sound principle and why most investors will
miss opportunities of a lifetime because of fear and habit. I will also review
other common bases: the flat base and the double bottom.



09/11/98 21:48

Q&A With William O'Neil


Q&A With William O'Neil

 How To Buy At Just The Right Moment

Last week, William O'Neil began his discussion of how to spot sound price
patterns, such as the ''cup with handle.''
    In this installment, IBD's chairman and founder looks at other common
bases. Why are they so important? Quality stocks typically form these same
patterns before they go on to make big gains.
    Q:When did you realize the importance of reading charts?
     O'Neil:  I first discovered how critical charts were in 1959, one year
after I became a stockbroker. At that time, there was one specific mutual fund
that happened to be outperforming all others. I got a weekly chart book and
posted from prospectuses and quarterly reports where, price-wise, the fund
purchased every new stock during the prior two years. I discovered something
very important.
    What I learned was so startling, it simply changed my whole view about how
to pick winning stocks. Every single one of the approximately 100 new stocks
the fund purchased was bought only after it bolted into new high ground in
price! For example, if a stock had fluctuated back and forth between $40 and
$50 for three to six months, this No. 1 fund only bought when the stock made a
new high at $51.

Now let's stop and think about this concept for a moment. This idea of buying
a stock at the highest price it has ever sold as it is coming out of a correct
basing area (I talked about one common pattern, the ''cup with handle'' last
week) seems ludicrous. After all, most of us were raised with the idea of
getting a deal, a bargain. I'm here to shatter a common and comfortable
misconception.

What applies to buying a car or a dress works in the completely opposite way
when dealing with stocks. You want stocks that have the greatest potential of
moving even higher. So, you've got to ignore the erroneous old saying, ''buy
low and sell high,'' and replace it with ''buy high and sell a lot higher.''

It's all a matter of perspective. Look back at a huge winner like Cisco
Systems.csco From its original new-high pivot point of $30 in October '90
through today, it has increased an incredible 15,596%. The original pivot
point

was actually low. It simply seemed high because its price history was all that
was known at that time. The incredible gains to come were not yet visible.

Q:What are some other price patterns that emerge before stocks take off?

O'Neil:  In addition to the common ''cup with handle'' pattern, see page A5
for an
example of a ''double bottom'' chart pattern with American Power
Conversion.APCC

American Power's 39-week pattern looks like a large letter ''W.'' The midpoint
of the W at C should be below the high at point A, the beginning of the
pattern. A to B is the first bottom in the letter W, B to C is the midpoint
and C to D represents the second leg down and second bottom in the W.

Normally, the second leg down will drop slightly below the absolute low of the
first bottom at point B. This serves as a shakeout and helps scare out the
last few weak holders. D to E is the last leg up in the W and E, F, and G
forms a short handle.

The correct buy point is at $22 at point G as the stock breaks through the
peak price of the handle (point E). Note the high increase in weekly trading
volume at the bottom of the chart when the stock moves up.

The stock at the buy point had an Earnings Per Share rank of 99, a Relative
Price Strength of 95, a return on equity of 53.8% and a 25% pretax profit
margin. It advanced 800% in the following 22 months from point G, which at
that time must have looked very high and scary. Notice also the big volume on
the price run up from $18 to $22 at point C.

One last observation: The last three weeks of December and the first week in
January, the stock closed in a very tight range around $17 and the volume
dried up to the lowest level in the entire base. Most people will never spot
this, but it is usually a sign of professional accumulation (buying).

Q:Any other price patterns to look for?

O'Neil:  Another common base is the flat base. It usually occurs after a stock
has
formed a ''cup with handle'' and has then continued to move up. Simply, the
price pattern moves straight sideways and holds tight for at least five weeks
and normally only corrects 8% to 12%. At the end of this type of pattern, a
new pivot point is established, giving you an additional chance to buy.

You want to buy a stock exactly at its pivot buy point as it breaks out of a
sound pattern. Don't chase it up more than 5% past its pivot. If you do, you
will be buying ''extended'' and your risk of being shaken out on a normal
price correction or pullback will increase.

Q:What are some mistakes you can make in reading charts, and are there
''faulty'' base patterns?

O'Neil:  1. Short bases of one, two, three or four weeks in duration are very
risky
and usually fail  avoid them.

2. Patterns that are abnormally wide or loose in overall appearance are more
risky. It's safer to buy tighter, better contained patterns with less wild
price fluctuations.

3. Stocks that shoot up straight from the bottom of a pattern into new highs
without any pullbacks or handles are risky and frequently have sharp sell-
offs.

4. A base breakout with no real increase in volume should be avoided.

5. Laggard bases. The last stock in a group to break out to a new high is weak
and a laggard. It should be passed up.

6. Handle areas that are too wide and loose (down 20% to 30%) or handles that
wedge upward along their lows rather than drifting down along the lows are
faulty and frequently may fail. Once you learn to read a chart book and
correctly recognize stocks with sound base patterns that are under
accumulation (professional buying) and possess all of the fundamental earnings
criteria we mentioned early in this series, your stock selection and
performance should improve significantly. Next week, I will explore a list of
important rules regarding charts I've learned through the years.

Looking for a previous installment of William O'Neil's series: ''26 Weeks To
Investment Success''? Just log on to to the World Wide Web and point your
browser to www.investors.com.




09/18/98 21:05

Q&A With William O'Neil


Q&A With William O'Neil

 How To Read Stock Charts Like A Pro

In recent weeks, William O'Neil has explored common chart patterns, why buying
stocks as they approach new price highs is a scary yet sound practice, and
some common mistakes you may make when evaluating price patterns.

In this final lesson about charts, IBD's chairman and founder discusses some
of the finer points of chart reading and exceptions to a few of the rules he
has covered.



 Q: Some charts look good, but not all stocks go on to make big gains. How do
you tell the difference between a sound base and a faulty one?


 O'NEIL:   The real value of charts is in evaluating a stock's activity in
relation to its recent past - its environment or setting. With all the factors
that can affect the market, from the Fed and interest rates to international
markets and politics, a stock chart - with its relatively simple price and
volume lines -represents actual performance of a stock in the marketplace.

 The PeopleSoft chart on Page A9 is a good example of how little details can
make the difference between faulty bases prone to failure and sound bases that
may be extremely profitable.

 Points A, B, and H in 1993 appear, at first glance, to be a ''cup with
handle.'' However, the handle area from C to H is wedging up along the low
points at D, E, F and G. Each point inches up a little higher along the low
points. Most bases that do this will fail after they break out, which this one
did at point H. Also note the weekly volume at the bottom of the chart was
lower on the breakout week (H) than the prior week. This is another bad
signal. The volume should increase on the breakout week.

 PeopleSoft built a second base from H to L. This time the handle area drifted
down from J to K, which is better because it shakes out weak holders by
undercutting the closing low prices of  the prior few weeks. Handles, however,
should not form in the lower half of the overall base, which this one did.

 Q: How do you measure to see if the handle is at the mid- to upper part of
the base vs. the
lower part?

 O'NEIL:   Take the absolute high price 197/8 (H), and the absolute low in the
base of 13 (I), which is an overall decline of 6 7/8 points. Now take the peak
in the handle of 17 (J) and the low of the
handle, 14 (K). The midpoint in the handle is 15. Now, is 15 closer to the 19
7/8 high or is it closer to the 13 low? It's only 2 points off the low and 4
7/8 points from the high.

 The midpoint of the handle is closer to the lower half, a weak sign
indicating a faulty base that you would not want to buy when it tries to break
out (L). Note also the enormous volume week at point X when PeopleSoft broke
below its support price of 15 established two weeks earlier.

 It takes time to learn these intricacies. Even experienced chartists can get
suckered into buying
at points H and L.

 Q: Where does PeopleSoft set up properly?


O'NEIL:   The stock finally forms a third, more proper base, from L to M to P.
The handle from N to O is a lot closer to the midpoint of the base. This base
is much tighter and better contained than the first one. Four weeks down from
point L, the stock breaks below its $16 support of two weeks earlier, but on
rather small volume that is better than the enormous volume spike in base No.
2.

 Note also the big volume/price run-up in week Y, as well as the huge volume
week at Z. At first glance you
might misread this as a negative sign. It's actually a sign of major support
buying.

 Here's how to interpret this action. For the two prior weeks, the stock
closed down 11/4 to 11/2 points each week. The volume then surges, and the
stock only closes down 1/8. I call this ''heavy volume without further
progress on the downside.'' It's big institutional buying. Now you have two of
the prior four weeks showing big volume support along the lows.

 The correct buy point in this base is 18 1/2. Observe the extreme volume dry-
up the week before the breakout (no one is watching the dull activity - it's
not so obvious). Next, the breakout week brings
a large volume increase.

 This is the precise week where our sister company, William O'Neil + Co.,
recommended PeopleSoft to its institutional clients as a buy in August 1994.
The Earnings Per Share rating then was 99 and the Relative Price Strength
rating was 87. PeopleSoft's pretax profit margins were 23.5% and its prior
five-year earnings growth rate was 163%. Additionally, management owned 50% of
the stock, the P-E ratio was 45 times earnings (it later sold at over 100
times earnings), and the average daily volume was 142,000 shares.

 </qa>Q: What other tips can help you find sound bases?

 O'NEIL:   Most successful stocks, as they make their way up in price, build a
number of bases, each one a different ''stage'' base. The first time a correct
base is formed (first stage), few people recognize it and generally it's a
stock most investors have never heard of, so few buy it. A few people see the
second base, but by the time the third and especially the fourth bases are
formed on a stock's way up, it's so obvious, everybody sees it. Because the
market moves to disappoint the masses and because most things that are obvious
usually don't work, if you buy fourth-stage bases, you will be wrong 80% of
the time.

 Chart price and volume action can frequently help you recognize when a stock
has reached its top and should be sold - much sooner than negative changes in
earnings signal a problem. For example, when the oil service stocks topped in
October, most of them showed earnings up 100% or more and estimates were
terrific for the next several quarters. But the price and volume action showed
heavy distribution
(professional selling).

 I scan a chart book of a couple thousand stocks each weekend looking for
sound patterns and stocks that fit the CAN-SLIM formula discussed in my book,
''How To Make Money In Stocks.'' Look for a huge weekly volume spike on weeks
of price increase once or twice in the past 12 months.

 A sound stock base should have more weeks in which the price is up on
greater-than-average volume than weeks down on greater-than-average volume.
There also should be some tight weeks that show
little price change.

 Most big leaders after they break out will go up 20% in eight weeks or less.
Sixty percent of the time, leaders will not pull back to the point of their
pivot (or buy) price. Sometimes you can make an additional buy the first time
a stock pulls back in price to its 10-week moving average line.

 I recommend you get a chart book, study it and you'll start to recognize
patterns. You'll discover things
you never knew before about stocks and how they behave. Cut out and save
patterns of really great performing stocks, so you'll learn what to look for
next time. History repeats itself in the market. Patterns that worked five, 10
and 15 years ago work just as well today because human nature never really
changes. One place to start with charts is our Daily Graphs online product,
found at www.dailygraphs.com.

 As you can see, market corrections are natural and normal; they help build
another round of stock bases. Without corrections in the market, there would
be a lot fewer ''cup and handle'' formations. It's the downturns that help
create the left-hand side of the cup. It's really a matter of perception. With
strict selling rules in place and a way to interpret what the general market
is doing, you can afford to get out at the top and wait for a whole new round
of future PeopleSofts to form.

Looking for a previous installment of William O'Neil's series: ''26 Weeks To
Investment Success''? Just log on to to the World Wide Web and point your
browser to www.investors.com.




09/25/98 21:30

ou might call them ''muscle stocks.'' They're the issues that have the
strength to break through what market technicians call ''overhead
resistance.''

     The term refers to a special market phenomenon that frequently comes into
play following a massive market drop such as the Dow industrials' tumble from
9367 on July 20 to 7402 by Sept. 1.
     I N V E S T O R ' S   C O R N E R

     When a stock trades at a higher price for some time and then falls below
that level, many investors who bought high now have a loss - in some cases a
big one. Human nature comes into play. Those investors in the red will be
itching to sell to get even.
     When the stock tries to rally back it will often encounter selling
pressure. A stock's ability to drive through that resistance says a lot about
its strength. Some stocks will falter and fall back, while others will
encounter only temporary problems.
     Some stocks that have recently shown their muscle are Legato Systems,
Jack Henry & Associates, EMC Corp., MiniMed, Safeway and InterVoice.
     They're all leading issues with an IBD Relative Strength rank over 90.
That means they've been outperforming at least 90% of all stocks.
     Take Legato Systems. The stock was trading in the high 40s in August.
However, it fell to 34 1/2 in late August due to the sell-off that swept the
market.
     But by the second week of September, Legato rallied back to its previous
high near 50 and drove on to 55 5/8. The stock showed its mettle by overcoming
resistance in the 40 to 46 area.
     A good way to spot ''overhead resistance'' is to study a stock chart. The
key is to find a trading range the stock was in prior to its fall. In the case
of Legato, it traded between 38 and 48 before getting knocked down to 34.
     When Legato moved back toward the lower part of its range, 38 was the key
price to watch. That's where the ''get-even'' investors started to sell. But
Legato drove right through 38. Only a few days later it gapped higher to 50
-very impressive action for the stock.
     Cisco Systems, although a leader, did not fare as well. It traded in a
range between 62 and 70. The market sell-off sent it tumbling to 54 3/8. It
turned and rallied to 63 twice, but fell back each time. Most recently, it
rallied a third time and got to 65, but once again was knocked back.
     It's a classic case of overhead resistance at work, hindering a stock
from advancing. Cisco may eventually overcome the resistance, but for the time
being it's having trouble.
     There are some helpful guidelines investors can follow. If a stock breaks
below a basing area, the price at the lower part of the base becomes ''key
resistance.'' When it rallies, you should watch if the stock is:
     * Turned back at resistance.
  * Penetrates resistance.
     * Drives through resistance quickly.
     There are other clues. The strength of the rally into resistance should
be noted. If the stock advances into resistance and shows rising volume on up
days, that's good. Legato did that. However, Cisco showed faltering volume on
up days and it dropped back.
     The ability of the stock to penetrate deep into the upside resistance
zone during its key rally is constructive. Again, Legato did that. In just
five sessions, it moved through its resistance area of 38 to 48.
     Dell Computer did the same and so did IBM. Both stocks are now trading
near the upper end of their recent trading ranges. They have the potential to
break out.
     IBD readers can focus in on ''muscle stocks'' that are overcoming
resistance by checking the issues making new highs. Another good tool are the
charts of the ''Stocks In The News,'' as well as ''Your Weekend Graphic
Review,'' which appears Fridays.
     IBD charts contain a Relative Strength line, a unique feature not found
in any other daily publication. Portfolio manager Robert Wibbelsman of Strome
Susskind Inc. in Santa Monica, Calif., says penetration of resistance formed
by a stock's RS line is also a good signal of strength.
     The RS line is drawn from data taken from the price changes in a stock in
relation to changes in the S&P 500. It's different from the Relative Strength
rank, which ranges between 1 and 99. That rank is determined by a stock's
performance relative to all other issues.

     ''In a market decline like we've had, many stock charts look ugly,''
Wibbelsman said. ''If a leading stock can rally and its RS line cuts through
its RS line resistance pattern, that is a positive. It can be an advance
signal the stock will eventually move through its price resistance. In some
cases, a stock's RS line may even go to a new high, before its price goes
through resistance.''

     Jack Henry & Associates did just that. The stock shook out down to 38 on
Sept. 1. But its RS line held close to a new high. The next session when the
stock rose, Jack Henry's RS line made a new high. That showed the stock was
strong.

     ''A stock's ability to rally through resistance and get back to its prior
base shows it has vitality,'' said analyst Eugene Peroni Jr. of Janney
Montgomery Scott Inc. in Philadelphia. ''When that occurs, prior resistance
should act as support. It is encouraging that quite a few stocks have been
able to get through resistance recently.''

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Copyright (c)  1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved.
Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (09/23/98)
Stocks Show Their Mettle As They Break Resistance
By Leo Fasciocco
09/24/98 08:15

                                                     jans




-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ken Davidson" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Fed cuts rates a quarter point.
Date: 29 Sep 1998 11:25:36 -0700

9/29/98 14:20 est (2:15 p.m.est)
The Fed decided to cut interest rates by a quarter point but left the
discount rate alone.  Before the release the market was relatively flat as
anticipated.  The Dow was up about +18.00 points, S&P 500 +4.00 points.  It
was no surprise to see the 30-year bond only up +1/32nd beforehand as bonds
will get the biggest impact from a rate change.  A few minutes after the
release the Dow and S&P 500 are          starting to sell off along with the
30-year bond after the news.  One minute after the release the Dow was
off -40.00 points, S&P 500 down -1.45 points and bonds started to flatten
out. We will send out commentaries as the market moves along into the close
to let you know what is happening.

Ken


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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Jeffry White <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan;etc.
Date: 29 Sep 1998 16:27:400 -0500

>Maybe, maybe not.  During the last major correction, the retest from
>the rally high was only 7%.  There is no rule that says we must retest
>the lows.

>- --Db

How in the world did you read what I called my "gut" feeling about retesting
in the even of no rate cut with a "rule" about retesting the low?

Maybe I need some time on the good doctor's couch, but the easier fix would
be, perhaps, a more careful reading of a post before tossing in 2 cents.  ;)

Still looking for the top of the channel to establish a short (sorry, Frank,
I couldn't hold onto the earlier position).

Jeff






-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #396
Date: 29 Sep 1998 18:58:36 EDT

I just bought some more CPWR

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "John Adair, M.D." <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not: delayed quotes nice web page
Date: 29 Sep 1998 21:56:36 -0500

This site looks attractive.  Kansia has or had a site to get delayed
intraday tickvolume and a lot of other data. they used The internet
trader sortware. I cant reach the site now. Does anyone know what
happened to this site.
John Adair
rolatzi wrote:

> A very useful delayed quote, chart, delayed live transactions.  Check
> it out.
>
> http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
> -


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "John Adair, M.D." <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not: delayed quotes nice web page
Date: 29 Sep 1998 21:56:36 -0500

This site looks attractive.  Kansia has or had a site to get delayed
intraday tickvolume and a lot of other data. they used The internet
trader sortware. I cant reach the site now. Does anyone know what
happened to this site.
John Adair
rolatzi wrote:

> A very useful delayed quote, chart, delayed live transactions.  Check
> it out.
>
> http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
> -


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Latin America & The "RATE CUT"
Date: 30 Sep 1998 01:06:47 -0400


Latin American Companies See Little Help From U.S. Fed Rate Cut

Caracas, Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Latin American companies say an expected
U.S. interest rate cut intended to shore up the global economy will offer
them little relief against cheap Asian imports, soaring borrowing costs and
slumping demand.

While financial markets rallied in recent days as traders bet the Fed's
move will ease a credit crunch in emerging markets, stocks and bonds
slipped today amid companies' pessimism about their prospects.

``Demand for steel is not going to rise tomorrow if the Fed cuts rates,''
said Othon Diaz, head of investor relations at Mexican steel-maker Hylsamex
SA.

Executives and analysts have scaled back their growth forecasts in recent
weeks as an investor exodus from emerging markets following Russia's August
debt default and currency devaluation prompted a credit crunch that crushed
the region's financial markets.

Concerns that slowdowns in the biggest export markets for U.S.
manufacturers rattled stock investors and stoked concerns that the U.S.
economic expansion may be running out of gas. That led to speculation that
Fed policy-makers would cut their target overnight lending rate to banks by
50 basis points to 5 percent.

`Entrenched'

At the same time, multi-lateral lending agencies such as the International
Monetary Fund would orchestrate a credit line for Latin America's
debt-strapped governments.

While those moves would ease companies' borrowing costs -- since U.S. rates
are benchmarks for global lending rates -- it will do little to solve
slumping commodities prices and narrow government budget deficits -- such
as Brazil's $57 billion shortfall.

``The region's problems are entrenched in the local economies,'' said David
Sekiguchi, a Latin American fixed income analyst with J.P. Morgan & Co. in
New York.

Latin America's economy, which grew by 5.2 percent last year, may slump to
a 1.9 percent growth rate next year, said David Anthony, a Latin American
economist with the Economist Intelligence Unit.

He's cut his forecast for 1998 growth to 2.7 percent from 5 percent.

And some, such as J.P. Morgan & Co. forecast a contraction of up to 2
percent next year in Brazil, the region's biggest economy.

Companies throughout the region are battening down the hatches, expecting
demand to continue to fall even as the Fed prepares to cut rates.

Setbacks

Tubos de Acero de Mexico SA, the country's only seamless steel pipe maker,
yesterday ordered an eight-day shut-down at one of its mills for late
October following a similar shut-down just weeks ago. The company's exports
slumped 3.6 percent in the first half, and sales are expected to slump
further in the second half. The company said that could prompt even more
shut-downs.

Archer Daniels Midland Co., a U.S. agriculture company, said today that
Venezuela's economic and political woes have prompted it to call off its
planned purchase of the food operations of International Multifoods Corp.
in that country.

Borrowing costs for companies and consumers have soared as governments
struggled to lure investment and shore up their currencies. In Venezuela,
borrowing costs have touched 80 percent, and in Brazil and Mexico they've
topped 40 percent. In Argentina, some banks have cut off loans, to hoard
cash.

Bankers in the region -- who have scaled back lending in recent weeks as
rates have soared -- aren't likely to let down their guard and step up
lending if the Fed cuts rates.

``Absolutely not,'' said Miguel Ignacio Purroy, a director at Banco del
Caribe, Venezuela's sixth-largest bank.

Sales in interest rate-sensitive industries in the region are being
punished as the high rates keep would-be buyers away. MasterCard Venezuela
Inc. said last week it has slashed its 1998 sales target by 18 percent to
$1.4 billion as high rates -- which are almost double the inflation rate in
Venezuela -- take their toll.

Lower Borrowing Costs

While companies said they do not expect a Fed rate cut to bolster their
sales in coming months, they expect a cut in U.S. rates to lower their
borrowing costs.

SA Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia, an Argentine supermarket
chain, said it hopes its short-term borrowing rates will ease after having
risen some 300 basis points recently to a range of 10 to 11 percent.

The company could use the help. It has seen sales drop 5 percent so far
this month as the Argentine economy has begun to slow.

``The second half of this year and 1999 look bleak for Latin American
economies,'' said the E.I.U.'s Anthony.

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] APOL
Date: 18 Sep 1998 11:12:10 -0700 (PDT)



For a graphic illustration of how very differently two
accumulation-distribution indicators can measure whatever it is they
are supposed to measure, bring up a 3-month daily chart of APOL at
bigcharts and plot OBV and Money Flow.  This is not to say that one is
better or more accurate than the other, only to point out the
importance of knowing how a given a/d indicator is constructed.

--Db


_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #396
Date: 30 Sep 1998 06:15:19 EDT

Good for you. Are you going to post all the purchases and sales on this list.
Imagine if everyone does this............ We can have  real busy time.

Surindra

In a message dated 9/29/98 7:06:40 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail] writes:

 I just bought some more CPWR
  >>

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CBTSY
Date: 29 Sep 1998 20:58:33 -0400

There's also a couple other excellent lessons to be learned from this
example.  Only several weeks ago, while still trading around 60, this
stock was showing considerable solid CANSLIM characteristics. When it
first fell off the cliff, while an 8% stop would not likely have
gotten you out of the pit with only an 8% loss, it still would have
gotten you out around 40 or so, which still beats the dickens out of
the 9.875 it traded to today.

When I first pointed out this one to my boss yesterday, when it was
already down 48% for the day, he started looking at the news and
fundies on it, and was itching to buy a small position around 20 since
"clearly it was oversold, this is too much of a drop just because it
didn't get a $5 mil order".  I explained to him why you don't try to
catch a "falling knife", and didn't hesitate to later point out to him
the stock was then trading at 15 on extraordinary volume. It ended up
trading over 19 mil shares with a total issue of 43 mil shares,
closing just over 15.

I brought in a current Daily Graphs chart this morning, and pointed
out, among other things, the high institutional ownership by funds
(52%); the almost non-existent ownership by management (about 2% if I
remember right); and the inconsistency between sales growth and
profits growth even after considering the EPS effect of an earlier
stock split.

Thus, in less than two weeks, this single stock well demonstrates the
value of using mental or actual stops; a determined selling
discipline; avoiding value shopping (bottom fishing) (I read a post
from one investor in a chat room last nite who made his first ever
investment in this one two weeks ago, what a way to get started); not
trying to catch a falling knife; and the true value and risks of
investing alongside heavy funds ownership with little management
ownership at stake.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>
>>From Briefing.com:
>
>CBT GROUP PLC (CBTSY) 11 1/16 -4 1/8. The recent earnings warning and
>collapse of CBTSY shares are providing an important lesson to
>investors: The "rogue" analyst is usually the one worth following.
>Investors who purchased shares of this educational software company
>following reassuring comments two weeks ago by Piper Jaffray and BT
>Alex. Brown understand what
>we are referring to.
>
>Story: CBTSY shares tumbled 28% from $55.375 on September 14 after
>Hambrecht & Quist analyst Genni Combes voiced concern that the death
>of a key official's son could cause delays in closing contracts in
>Europe.
>
>Reassurance: Piper Jaffray reiterated its "strong buy" rating,
stating
>it had not seen any changes in the company's performance guidance to



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not: delayed quotes nice web page
Date: 30 Sep 1998 06:22:13 EDT

In a message dated 9/29/98 11:14:01 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
[e-mail] writes:

<< I cant reach the site now. Does anyone know what
 happened to this site.
 John Adair
 rolatzi wrote:

 > A very useful delayed quote, chart, delayed live transactions.  Check
 > it out.
 >
 > http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
 > >>
This url is valid and works. I think if you go to "top ten", the data is in
real time and not delayed (although company wont advertise that).

Surindra

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] BEST Software - Observation, Watch list recommend.
Date: 30 Sep 1998 07:07:29 -0400

I've been experimenting with custom technical scans of the securities in my
database and one of the charts pulled up by my scans was Best Software.

Tom had mentioned this one months ago, but I had not been actively
following the stock. If I remember, it has very sound cansli_
characteristics. The chart is pretty impressive given the current market.

I'm not recommending a buy at this point, but certainly adding this one to
your watch list seems appropriate. "M" getting ugly again.

Frank Wolynski


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: MFAC (was Re: [CANSLIM] BEST Software - Observation, Watch list recommend.)
Date: 30 Sep 1998 07:18:53 -0400

Another one previously mentioned here which I took my eyes off is
Market Facts (MFAC). Excellent CS elements, did a baby cup & handle
during the correction, and since taken off from too short of a handle.
Held up well and now hitting new highs. Drat, probably too extended
now, but will try to watch for a possible new entry point.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>I've been experimenting with custom technical scans of the securities
in my
>database and one of the charts pulled up by my scans was Best
Software.
>
>Tom had mentioned this one months ago, but I had not been actively
>following the stock. If I remember, it has very sound cansli_
>characteristics. The chart is pretty impressive given the current
market.
>
>I'm not recommending a buy at this point, but certainly adding this
one to
>your watch list seems appropriate. "M" getting ugly again.
>
>Frank Wolynski
>
>
>-
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Ugly market ahead
Date: 30 Sep 1998 07:30:33 -0400

Futures now off about 1.5%, most of Europe down 2% or better, and
Japan tanked 3% last night to another 12 year low. Their major
financial got downgraded again, by Moody's I think.  How much more
pain will they endure to preserve cultural and economic bad practices?

The significance in the Fed rate cut made yesterday (to my surprise
and disappointment) is not in its size (25 basis pts vs 50), but
rather that it signals a series of cuts that together will likely
total 100 to 150 BP over the next year to 18 months. It also signals
that Greenspan has become the global economic cop, rather than just
working domestically. The questions I am left with is whether the US
economy can survive long enough for the world economy to recover, and
also what will happen in both the US and worldwide the first time he
is forced to raise rates.

The next two years could prove interesting.

Tom W



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Tom Worley" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BEST Software - Observation, Watch list recommend.
Date: 30 Sep 1998 07:48:32 -0400

One other thought on BEST, with all the insider selling in the past 4
months, I wonder how accurate the "management" ownership of 46% still
is?? And it already has 25% funds ownership reported. I have similiar
concerns with MFAC, where management is reported as "N/A" (tho someone
has about 25%, if not mngmt don't know who) and funds at 22%. However
volume recently has been impressive. Only insider selling here was
last May.

Tom W

-----Original Message-----


>I've been experimenting with custom technical scans of the securities
in my
>database and one of the charts pulled up by my scans was Best
Software.
>
>Tom had mentioned this one months ago, but I had not been actively
>following the stock. If I remember, it has very sound cansli_
>characteristics. The chart is pretty impressive given the current
market.
>
>I'm not recommending a buy at this point, but certainly adding this
one to
>your watch list seems appropriate. "M" getting ugly again.
>
>Frank Wolynski
>
>
>-
>



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Leading Groups
Date: 19 Sep 1998 09:52:08 -0700 (PDT)



Of the groups I follow, the following are trading above their 50d:

SW - Medl
Business Svcs
Medl/Dentl Svcs
US Integ Oils
Drug Stores

SW - Enterprise as a group is not trading above its 50d, but the
surrogate is.

Many groups are now above their 17d, due primarily (from just looking
them over) to base-building.  To me, that's a giant plus.  I'd like to
see it continue.

--Db


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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: rolatzi <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not: delayed quotes nice web page
Date: 30 Sep 1998 06:05:16 -0700 (PDT)


What is "top ten"?

Ciao
rolatzi
[e-mail] wrote:
>
> In a message dated 9/29/98 11:14:01 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
> [e-mail] writes:
>
> << I cant reach the site now. Does anyone know what
>  happened to this site.
>  John Adair
>  rolatzi wrote:
>
>  > A very useful delayed quote, chart, delayed live transactions.
Check
>  > it out.
>  >
>  > http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
>  > >>
> This url is valid and works. I think if you go to "top ten", the
data is in
> real time and not delayed (although company wont advertise that).
>
> Surindra
>
> -
>
>

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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks to Watch
Date: 30 Sep 1998 06:26:39 -0700 (PDT)


Here are some interesting charts to look at, most of which demonstrate
the W formation that O'N explained in IBD about a week ago: METZ,
PRGS, CPWR, ADLAC, ABT, PBI.  What is especially interesting about
these in particular are the RS lines.  If you don't have software that
will plot an RS line, perhaps someone can suggest a website that will
do it for you.

--Db



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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CBTSY
Date: 30 Sep 1998 06:36:09 -0700 (PDT)



<<Thus, in less than two weeks, this single stock well demonstrates the
value of using mental or actual stops; a determined selling
discipline; avoiding value shopping (bottom fishing) (I read a post
from one investor in a chat room last nite who made his first ever
investment in this one two weeks ago, what a way to get started); not
trying to catch a falling knife; and the true value and risks of
investing alongside heavy funds ownership with little management
ownership at stake.>>

This is hardly what I would call an example of "value shopping" or
"bottom fishing".  These two terms do not refer to buying a stock just
because it is low.  They have their own criteria, just as CS does.

--Db



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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan;etc.
Date: 30 Sep 1998 06:42:05 -0700 (PDT)



<<How in the world did you read what I called my "gut" feeling about
retesting in the even of no rate cut with a "rule" about retesting the
low?

Maybe I need some time on the good doctor's couch, but the easier fix
would
be, perhaps, a more careful reading of a post before tossing in 2
cents.>>

How in the world did you read what I called a "rule" with your "gut"
feeling?  Relax, Jeffry.  If you're not interested in my two cents,
don't read my posts.

--Db



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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not: delayed quotes nice web page
Date: 30 Sep 1998 10:03:56 -0400

rolatzi wrote:

> What is "top ten"?
>
> Ciao
> rolatzi

They have a window that shows Ten stocks that have:

Highest Vol OR
Highest Price Increase OR
Highest % Increase OR
Highest Option Volume OR
Largest Orice Drop
etc


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"; Greenspan;etc.
Date: 30 Sep 1998 10:09:31 -0400

dbphoenix wrote:

> <<How in the world did you read what I called my "gut" feeling about
> retesting in the even of no rate cut with a "rule" about retesting the
> low?
>
> Maybe I need some time on the good doctor's couch, but the easier fix
> would
> be, perhaps, a more careful reading of a post before tossing in 2
> cents.>>
>
> How in the world did you read what I called a "rule" with your "gut"
> feeling?  Relax, Jeffry.  If you're not interested in my two cents,
> don't read my posts.
>
> --Db
>

Db - -

Jeff had mentioned a Gut feeling about retesting and 7% of something,
then you mentioned something about 7% and retesting and there not being
any Rule about it

then jeff asked how you got Rule from his Gut feeling...

sounds like emails crossed in time...

This thread is ended..


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CPWR
Date: 30 Sep 1998 07:16:11 -0700 (PDT)


Nice piece on CPWR:

http://www.investhelp.com/company_spotlight.shtml

It's unusual for a CS stock to linger around its buypoint this long.
Thank market activity.

Also, one of the stocks I mentioned this morning--ADLAC--may be in
play.  It's already traded more than a quarter of its ADV.

--Db
_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tom Moulton <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CPWR
Date: 30 Sep 1998 10:29:25 -0400

dbphoenix wrote:

> Nice piece on CPWR:
>
> http://www.investhelp.com/company_spotlight.shtml
>
> It's unusual for a CS stock to linger around its buypoint this long.
> Thank market activity.
>

I have also noticed that CPWR has had some radio spots on the local
radio station...
was interesting to see (hear)


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Tim Fisher <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CPWR
Date: 29 Sep 1998 16:46:22 -0700

IMHO CPWR is perilously close to violating its pivot point. I'm not good at
finding those but it seems to me it's somewhere between 59-1/2 and 60-1/2. I'm
nervous about my position in CPWR as it is, and if it significantly voilates
the pivot on a closing basis I'm out the next day. Why would you buy something
that is this close to falling out of a breakout and back into its base? IMHO
this is not the same as buying the Nifty Fifty (or is it down to 10?) "on the
dips". Yesterday I said I was scared shitless (before that I said that
GreenSPAM would lower rates 1/4 pt. and believed it) and I still am. IMHO the
market figured in a 1/2 pt reduction (stupidly) and we are headed down in the
short term. I fully expect some of my small cap breakouts to fail this week. I
would be very disappointed and inclined to go back to cash if DELL, AOL, etc.
did the same.

On 03:58 PM 9/29/98 , [e-mail] Said:
>I just bought some more CPWR
>

Tim Fisher
Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites



-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Weekend Review -top 10 list 9/18
Date: 18 Sep 1998 07:42:53 -0700 (PDT)

9/18/98
Most of last weekÆs top 10 food stocks are now in the top 20.

Holdover:SUNW

DELL    Computer Micro/Mini    99/99C
SUNW                 93/91/B
WPI     Medical Generic Drug    95/95D
KVB                 90/95/B
KVA                 90/95/B
ESRX     Medical Wholesale Drug/Sundries    95/95/B
CAH                 93/91/B
AVEI     Medical Instruments    98/98/B
SDG                86/94/B
JKHY    Computer Integrated Systems    97/98/B

Last week top 10 up 1.06%




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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: TM <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Db IBD question
Date: 20 Sep 1998 06:18:05 -0700 (PDT)

Do you know what the new (5th) proprietary rating on the IBD stock
tables will be starting in October?

Thanks,

TM




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-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Peter Newell <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Db IBD question
Date: 30 Sep 1998 13:17:04 -0400

SMR, Sales, margin, ROE

Peter

----------
> From: TM <[e-mail]>
> To: [e-mail]
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Db IBD question
> Date: Sunday, September 20, 1998 9:18 AM
>
> Do you know what the new (5th) proprietary rating on the IBD stock
> tables will be starting in October?
>
> Thanks,
>
> TM
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________
> DO YOU YAHOO!?
> Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>
>
> -

-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Connie Mack Rea <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Axioms & Maxims.
Date: 30 Sep 1998 18:47:28 -0400

       Connie Mack Rea <[e-mail]>
                                                 18:40






Members--

If you're looking for maxims, axioms, and all around good sense for
trading, you might post these over your computer.

Also:  Wouldn't be too concerned over the events of the last few days.
There is money to made shortly--on both sides of the market.

Dr. Connie Mack Rea




                Time Tested Classic
                    Trading Rules
            for the Modern Trader to
                        Live By
                   Linda Raschke



       This is a list of classic trading rules that was given to me
       while on the trading floor in 1984. A senior trader collected
       these rules from classic trading literature throughout the
       twentieth century. They obviously withstand the age-old test
       of time.

       I'm sure most everybody knows these truisms in their hearts,
       but this list is nicely edited and makes a good read.

        1.Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
        2.Keep records of your trading results.
        3.Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
        4.Don't take the market home.
        5.Continually set higher trading goals.
        6.Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good
          news.
        7.Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
        8.Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time
          for studying the markets.
        9.Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions
          of others.
       10.Continually strive for patience, perseverance,
          determination, and rational action.
       11.Limit your losses - use stops!
       12.Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
       13.Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
       14.Never get into the market because you are anxious
          because of waiting.
       15.Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
       16.Losses make the trader studious - not profits. Take
          advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of
          market action.
       17.The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction
          but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and
          frustrating. You are the most important element in the
          equation for success.
       18.Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined
          set of rules.
       19.Remember that a bear market will give back in one
          month what a bull market has taken three months to
          build.
       20.Don't ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser.
          Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20%
          from your peak profit point.
       21.You must have a program, you must know your
          program, and you must follow your program.
       22.Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood
          over losses always miss the next opportunity, which
          more than likely will be profitable.
       23.Split your profits right down the middle and never risk
          more than 50% of them again in the market.
       24.The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and
          your stress point.
       25.The difference between winners and losers isn't so much
          native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding
          mistakes.
       26.In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
       27.Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with
          the golden touch do not talk about their success.
       28.Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set
          goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all
          day long.
       29.Accept failure as a step towards victory.
       30.Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken
          a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don't let ego and greed
          inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
       31.One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door
          closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity
          always lies through the open door.
       32.The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will
          to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects
          all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this
          he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
       33.It's much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
       34.If a market doesn't do what you think it should do, get
          out.
       35.Beware of large positions that can control your emotions.
          Don't be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently
          by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in
          bursts.
       36.Never add to a losing position.
       37.Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
       38.You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you
          expect to make a living at this game.
       39.In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to
          anticipate what the next big movement is going to be - up
          or down.
       40.A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it
          overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss - that
          is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the
          soul.
       41.Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.
       42.Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than
          selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a
          loss.
       43.Standing aside is a position.
       44.It is better to be more interested in the market's reaction
          to new information than in the piece of news itself.
       45.If you don't know who you are, the markets are an
          expensive place to find out.
       46.In the world of money, which is a world shaped by
          human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what
          will happen in the future. Mark that word - Nobody!
          Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what
          supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does
          happen.
       47.Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of
          taking your profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a
          trade continues winning without you. Chances are it
          won't continue long. If it does, console yourself by
          thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved
          gains that you would have otherwise lost.
       48.When the ship starts to sink, don't pray - jump!
       49.Lose your opinion - not your money.
       50.Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that
          works for you.














-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CPWR
Date: 30 Sep 1998 17:48:14 -0400

When I had DGO during the beta period, CPWR was one of the stocks I was
following and I seem to remember Institutional ownership at very high
levels. I may have my stocks mixed up as this has been a while, but just
thought I would raise a flag. (Chart looks very nice indeed!)

Frank Wolynski

At 10:29 AM 9/30/98 -0400, Tom Moulton wrote:
>dbphoenix wrote:
>
>> Nice piece on CPWR:
>>
>> http://www.investhelp.com/company_spotlight.shtml
>>
>> It's unusual for a CS stock to linger around its buypoint this long.
>> Thank market activity.
>>
>
>I have also noticed that CPWR has had some radio spots on the local
>radio station...
>was interesting to see (hear)
>


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Quarterly Tankan Business Survey out tonight.
Date: 30 Sep 1998 21:11:50 -0400


Thursday, Oct. 1

Tokyo: The Bank of Japan releases at 8:50 a.m. the quarterly `tankan'
business sentiment survey for September. Japan's top company executives
were more pessimistic than at any time since the July-September quarter of
1994, according to the June survey. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News
forecast a further deterioration in the business sentiment in the September
survey. (See JNTSMFG <Index> HP)


-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Walter Stock" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Part Two - Non "M" noise only
Date: 30 Sep 1998 21:46:14 PDT

Thank you to all of those who read my post on deflation
and privately (or publicly) expressed an interest in more on
the subject.

I have been convinced that deflation is the major economic threat to
the US and Canada since October of last year.

Broadly speaking, deflation simply means an ongoing
decrease in prices of things such as goods and services.
It is most commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index
and the Producer Price Index.  Other indices are often used
as well, and two of my favorites are the CRB and the GSCI
to keep track of commodity prices.

Deflation can be good or bad.

An example of good deflation : during the industrial
revolution,  the new production techniques made
it possible to sell goods for the first time on a mass scale, and
at cheaper and cheaper prices than before.  Easy money
conditions accommodated.
KEY:  rapidly expanding populations ensured that rising demand
accompanied the rising supply.
As a result the western economies expanded for most of those
years.


An example of bad deflation : during the Depression of the
Thirties, goods and services became cheaper and
cheaper as tight money conditions arose from excessively
high interest rates after the crash of 1929.
KEY:  the demand for goods and sevices collapsed.
Why?  Commercial purchasers and individual consumers
realized that things would continue to get cheaper if they waited
to buy, and so they did exactly that...  waited and waited as long
as possible.
With unsold goods accumulating on shelves and in warehouses,
desperate merchants would slash prices in an effort to sell them.
Purchasers and consumers would note the rapidly falling prices,
and decide to wait even longer to get the best deal possible.
Frantic merchants would cut prices more... and demand would
collapse even more.  Unable to move goods, stores and factories
would close, throwing people out of work.

Truly massive unemployment was created, i.e. 25% unemployment
by 1933 (not including those working part-time but really needing full-ti=
me).
The result was a huge pool of desperate workers willing to work for
lower and lower wages.  Wages started to collapse along with prices.
A deflationary spiral was created, and the Depression was the result.

We saw the opposite psychology in the inflationary Seventies and
early Eighties when people rushed headlong to buy houses and other goods,
convinced that those goods would only get more expensive
the next month or the next year.

Couple final comments.  Deflation is very hard to stop once it starts
in a modern economy.  Inflation is much easier to halt.

The usual central bank approach is to alter monetary policy to create
"easier money" by doing any or all of the following:
      1) lower interest rates
      2) increase the money supply
      3) lower commercial bank reserve requirements
      4) lower margin requirements for institutions and individuals

Fiscal approaches to fighting deflation are more controversial:
      1) Classical school economists say do nothing  (wait out the cycle)
      2) Keynes' followers say increase gov't spending  (deficits if nec'=
y)
      3) Neo-classical school says cut taxes  (again - deficits if nec'y)

There you have it.  Deflation in a nut-shell.  Plain English too (mostly)=
.

Questions welcomed.

Walter Stock
Oakville, ONT - Canada











Right now, Japan has deflation.  Pri















-



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Part Two - Non "M" noise only
Date: 30 Sep 1998 23:04:39 -0400

Thanks Walter, excellent post.

I've been pondering it for a while wondering what forces would be necessary
to reverse the unfortunate inevitability that seems to be in place.
One recourse I see, is a military threat or war.
Government spending is usually justified for defense.
I can't for the life of me see that worldwide interest rate cuts will have
any lasting influence.

Frank Wolynski

( After reading my statement above I want to clear something up. I'm not
implying we start a war. There is growing stress over the World current
economic plight and fingers are pointing at the devil of Western Economic
Policy and the puppet the IMF as the main reason. Seems a bit of tension in
this area could easily escalate into something much bigger. Especially if
one considers the recourse the Russians have at this point. Unless of
course you happen to have a few hundred billion you want to give away to
bail 'em out!)

At 21:46 9/30/98 PDT, you wrote:
>Thank you to all of those who read my post on deflation
>and privately (or publicly) expressed an interest in more on
>the subject.
>
>I have been convinced that deflation is the major economic threat to
>the US and Canada since October of last year.
>
>Broadly speaking, deflation simply means an ongoing
>decrease in prices of things such as goods and services.
>It is most commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index
>and the Producer Price Index.  Other indices are often used
>as well, and two of my favorites are the CRB and the GSCI
>to keep track of commodity prices.
>
>Deflation can be good or bad.
>
>An example of good deflation : during the industrial
>revolution,  the new production techniques made
>it possible to sell goods for the first time on a mass scale, and
>at cheaper and cheaper prices than before.  Easy money
>conditions accommodated.
>KEY:  rapidly expanding populations ensured that rising demand
>accompanied the rising supply.
>As a result the western economies expanded for most of those
>years.
>
>
>An example of bad deflation : during the Depression of the
>Thirties, goods and services became cheaper and
>cheaper as tight money conditions arose from excessively
>high interest rates after the crash of 1929.
>KEY:  the demand for goods and sevices collapsed.
>Why?  Commercial purchasers and individual consumers
>realized that things would continue to get cheaper if they waited
>to buy, and so they did exactly that...  waited and waited as long
>as possible.
>With unsold goods accumulating on shelves and in warehouses,
>desperate merchants would slash prices in an effort to sell them.
>Purchasers and consumers would note the rapidly falling prices,
>and decide to wait even longer to get the best deal possible.
>Frantic merchants would cut prices more... and demand would
>collapse even more.  Unable to move goods, stores and factories
>would close, throwing people out of work.
>
>Truly massive unemployment was created, i.e. 25% unemployment
>by 1933 (not including those working part-time but really needing full-time).
>The result was a huge pool of desperate workers willing to work for
>lower and lower wages.  Wages started to collapse along with prices.
>A deflationary spiral was created, and the Depression was the result.
>
>We saw the opposite psychology in the inflationary Seventies and
>early Eighties when people rushed headlong to buy houses and other goods,
>convinced that those goods would only get more expensive
>the next month or the next year.
>
>Couple final comments.  Deflation is very hard to stop once it starts
>in a modern economy.  Inflation is much easier to halt.
>
>The usual central bank approach is to alter monetary policy to create
>"easier money" by doing any or all of the following:
>      1) lower interest rates
>      2) increase the money supply
>      3) lower commercial bank reserve requirements
>      4) lower margin requirements for institutions and individuals
>
>Fiscal approaches to fighting deflation are more controversial:
>      1) Classical school economists say do nothing  (wait out the cycle)
>      2) Keynes' followers say increase gov't spending  (deficits if nec'y)
>      3) Neo-classical school says cut taxes  (again - deficits if nec'y)
>
>There you have it.  Deflation in a nut-shell.  Plain English too (mostly).
>
>Questions welcomed.
>
>Walter Stock
>Oakville, ONT - Canada
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>Right now, Japan has deflation.  Pri
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim - Instant View - Quarterly Tankan Business Survey
Date: 30 Sep 1998 23:19:52 -0400

Wednesday September 30, 8:18 pm Eastern Time
INSTANT VIEW-Bank of Japan "tankan"
ROBERT FELDMAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR JAPAN, MORGAN STANLEY

``The results are worse than expected, particularly for manufacturers. I
think the results will put more pressure on the government to come up with
larger tax cuts or fiscal policy. But more important.. the key thing right
now is whether we're seeing a rise of the savings rate. The tankan doesn't
have much to say on that....I think these are very very gloomy data, as
have other recent data been. They will probably cause further downward
revisions of
profit expectations and business investment expectations and pressure on
the government for more fiscal action. (As for the BOJ:) They've already
moved.''

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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Fund Flows
Date: 30 Sep 1998 20:35:41 -0700 (PDT)



Thought you folks might be interested in a discovery of mine.  It's a
website that tracks flows in and out of equity, taxable, muni and
money market funds on a weekly basis.  It provides graphs as well as
breakdowns for specific types of funds.  This is all free (if somebody
already came up with it, my apologies).

http://www.amgdata.com/

For a price, you apparently can also find out who's doing what on a
fund-specific basis, but this is a little foggy from the description
on the site.

Those of you who are interested in stocks are encouraged to stick with
it and to continue posting.  If the doom-and-gloom is pushing you into
the floor, go to the library and find copies of Business Week or Time
or Forbes or whatever from the end of 1990, the last time we had a
major correction.  Lots of doom and gloom then as well, but the world
didn't come to an end.  Far from it.

O'N's advice is still the best: focus on the daily market data and the
charts.  Stick to your strategy and your discipline and filter out the
noise as much as humanly possible.

--Db
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From: "Frank V. Wolynski" <[e-mail]>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Individual Investor Quarterly Update Posted
Date: 01 Oct 1998 00:08:48 -0400


http://www.iionline.com/guest/release/r_september2998.asp

NEW YORK, September 28, 1998 -- Individual Investor Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: INDI)
has rebalanced its INDI 500 Index of small cap growth companies,
identifying 50 of the fastest growing U.S. stocks. The new "Fast 50" list
features companies with hyper-quarterly earnings growth -- ranging from
5,400% (for Vanguard Cellular Systems) to 115% (for Boston Acoustics).
All 500 stocks in the index are listed on Individual Investor Online
(http://www.iionline.com).

The INDI 500 is the only index that gets rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
By purging its 50 slowest-growing companies each quarter, the INDI 500
remains a barometer for America's fastest growing small cap companies.

"If you want to gauge the performance of the small cap market, the INDI 500
is more than an index, it's a tool," said Tom Byrne, director of research
for Individual Investor Group. "This list of the "Fast 50" is an elite
group of companies that offer huge potential for investors who need small
cap exposure in their portfolios."

The INDI 500, listed on the American Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol
"NDI," requires companies to have market capitalization between $100
million and $2 billion and earnings growth in excess of 50% in their most
recent quarter. Only NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ stocks are
included in the index.


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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only
Date: 22 Sep 1998 15:25:21 -0700 (PDT)



<<Well if deflation in North America results from a collapse in demand
for goods and services (as seen already in Asia), then deflation
will be very bad indeed.>>

If consumer demand for goods and services in this country were to
collapse, it would be an event of equal magnitude to the Second
Coming.  Do we really believe that Americans are going to give up
their goodies, even if they have to take a third job to get them?

As far as negative earnings go, somehow I suspect that American
business (at least the gorillas) will do what it has to do to keep the
bottom line above water.  Just call me cynical.

--Db



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From: dbphoenix <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Individual Investor Quarterly Update Posted
Date: 30 Sep 1998 21:33:40 -0700 (PDT)


<<The INDI 500 is the only index that gets rebalanced on a quarterly
basis.
By purging its 50 slowest-growing companies each quarter, the INDI 500
remains a barometer for America's fastest growing small cap companies.>>

Unfortunately, he's probably right.  He doesn't mention that the NDI
is down 32% from its April high (my data only goes back to February).
Might be a faster index than the RUT, though.

--Db




_________________________________________________________
DO YOU YAHOO!?
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com


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