Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives...
Date: 03 Nov 2002 08:00:00 -0700
From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message.
Here are the two ways to access the archives:
1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to:
SMD also on my watch close list, has enough of the characteristics to buy if
it marks a direction from here.
Chris
--part1_122.19ee8eaf.2af7dc9b_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Century Gothic" LANG="0">SMD also on my watch close list, has enough of the characteristics to buy if it marks a direction from here.<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">I personally rely on the MACD histogram. I maintain a database of stocks<BR>gleaned from various sources (IBD, VectorVest.) As soon as I see any<BR>stock cross the zero line headed upwards, I pay VERY close attention for<BR>the next day or two and if it continues to climb with strong volume, I'm<BR>in. Conversely, as soon as the histogram starts heading back down<BR>towards zero, I unload. <BR><BR>I have never managed to get the hang of the cup-with-handle formation.<BR>I don't have the mental discipline, I fear, for calculating pivot points<BR>and base depths. Don't misunderstand, I still look for those illusive<BR>cups, but I find a MACD histogram is easier to spot and, therefore,<BR>something I use more frequently.<BR><BR>John<BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of<BR>michael_niemotka@baxter.com<BR>Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2002 8:05 PM<BR>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM with TA<BR><BR>I was wondering, by a show of hands, how many of the group members use<BR>some<BR>other form of technical analysis besides the price volume chart action<BR>described by WON .<BR>Since the chart reading can be very subjective, do any of you use MACD<BR>cross overs, or Point and figure charts to confirm a breakout, or<BR>possible<BR>sell sign for a stock?<BR><BR>Thanks<BR><BR>Mike<BR><BR>Mike Niemotka , PE<BR>Sr. Principal Engineer<BR>Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>Route 120 & Wilson Road<BR>Round Lake, IL 60073<BR>Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>Fax (847) 270-4525<BR>michael_niemotka@baxter.com<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/careers/mailsig/*http://www.hotjobs.com ">HotJobs</a> - Search new jobs daily now
Spencer: Go to this link for a list of major stock owners. Charley <A HREF="http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp?Symbol=smd">MSN Money
- Institutional Ownership: Investing</A>
--part1_a1.30107f81.2af7ff27_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Spencer: Go to this link for a list of major stock owners. Charley <A HREF="http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp?Symbol=smd">MSN Money - Institutional Ownership: Investing</A> </FONT></HTML>
You left out the part IM interested in, what are you buying these days?
Chris
--part1_19d.b69d7ff.2af89efb_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Century Gothic" LANG="0">You left out the part IM interested in, what are you buying these days?<BR>
While doing my weekly research I came across in Yahoo Finance with the profile for SRCL, under Ownership Institutional is appeared 123% of float.
A definition of float is the shares left over for possible purchase after substracting stock that is closely held (How to make money in stocks, page 33); my doubt is: who come do they come with this 123%?
I need some light on it.
Best Regards to all,
Luis Claramunt
San Jose, Costa Rica
mail to: luclaxu@racsa.co.cr
--Boundary_(ID_PwA2XXzrDOWCC5oCKrdwGQ)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
Does anyone know how often say in percentage terms gaps are filled. My
experience leaves me to believe that gaps are fill most of the time, giving
you a second chance to enter a stock.
The stock IM referring to that gaped up is LCI, gaped up Mon. and continued
up today.
Thanks Chris.
--part1_14.1920119.2af9db3e_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Century Gothic" LANG="0">Does anyone know how often say in percentage terms gaps are filled. My experience leaves me to believe that gaps are fill most of the time, giving you a second chance to enter a stock.<BR>
The stock IM referring to that gaped up is LCI, gaped up Mon. and continued up today.<BR>
It would be great if there was some data on gaps filled in specific time
lines, for example 10% of gaps are filled the first week, 25% of gaps are
filled in the first month, and 75% of all gaps are filled within the first
year.
Personally I don't have a lot of patience so I would be looking for a
pullback within a week or two, anymore than that would look more like a
failed breakout.
Chris.
--part1_78.2fecf21c.2af9df1d_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Century Gothic" LANG="0">It would be great if there was some data on gaps filled in specific time lines, for example 10% of gaps are filled the first week, 25% of gaps are filled in the first month, and 75% of all gaps are filled within the first year.<BR>
Personally I don't have a lot of patience so I would be looking for a pullback within a week or two, anymore than that would look more like a failed breakout.<BR>
what's Murphy's Law Everytime I take my 20% gain i.e FDP RYL etc it goes on to be 100% winner and whenever I try to hold on to get the big winner I usually end up breaking even or losing a little. GO FIGURE!
Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote:Mike, I like to start with the standard max of an 8% stop loss set from my
entry point, so long as that also puts it just under the bottom of the base
line. Once I am up at least 15%, I prefer to then raise my stop loss to a
break even, then if things keep moving up, also move the stop loss to a
trailing 15%. Granted, I tend to usually do this in my head, and usually
works better when I use hard stops.
I rarely sell part of the position for only a 20% gain. I invest for long
term, and rarely without an expectation / goal of at least 100% gain. If I
feel compelled to sell for only a 20% gain, then normally I sell the entire
position. That also keeps the cost of commission from becoming a measurable
factor for me.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, November 04, 2002 12:59 PM
All,
I know I have asked similar questions in the past, but not sure if I have
addressed this one:
If you have bought a stock, and watched it rise , say 15-20%, and being
conservative, you have sold 1/2 your position to lock in those profits, for
the other half, do you use a trailing stop (mental or real) to lock in a
minimum profit on the rest, say 5%, or do you allow it to drop as low as
the 7-8% below your original buy point, or maybe just to a break even
point?
The reason I ask is the somewhat confusing statement that WON makes in his
book about never letting a gain turn into a loss. But how much of a gain do
you have to get before you move up the stop loss from 7-8% below buy point
to a break even point, without unnecessarily getting pushed out of a
otherwise good stock that might just be undergoing a normal correction?
Also, assuming that you capital is small, such that the commission fees are
not negligible, do you include the costs of the trades in calculating the
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Do you Yahoo!?
HotJobs - Search new jobs daily now
--0-100372118-1036598773=:17939
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>what's Murphy's Law Everytime I take my 20% gain i.e FDP RYL etc it goes on to be 100% winner and whenever I try to hold on to get the big winner I usually end up breaking even or losing a little. GO FIGURE!
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">Mike, I like to start with the standard max of an 8% stop loss set from my<BR>entry point, so long as that also puts it just under the bottom of the base<BR>line. Once I am up at least 15%, I prefer to then raise my stop loss to a<BR>break even, then if things keep moving up, also move the stop loss to a<BR>trailing 15%. Granted, I tend to usually do this in my head, and usually<BR>works better when I use hard stops.<BR><BR>I rarely sell part of the position for only a 20% gain. I invest for long<BR>term, and rarely without an expectation / goal of at least 100% gain. If I<BR>feel compelled to sell for only a 20% gain, then normally I sell the entire<BR>position. That also keeps the cost of commission from becoming a measurable<BR>factor for me.<BR><BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: <MICHAEL_NIEMOTKA@BAXTER.COM><BR>To: <CANSLIM@LISTS.XMISSION.COM><BR>Sent: Monday, November 04, 2002 12:59 PM<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] selling rules question<BR><BR><BR>All,<BR><BR>I know I have asked similar questions in the past, but not sure if I have<BR>addressed this one:<BR><BR>If you have bought a stock, and watched it rise , say 15-20%, and being<BR>conservative, you have sold 1/2 your position to lock in those profits, for<BR>the other half, do you use a trailing stop (mental or real) to lock in a<BR>minimum profit on the rest, say 5%, or do you allow it to drop as low as<BR>the 7-8% below your original buy point, or maybe just to a break even<BR>point?<BR><BR>The reason I ask is the somewhat confusing statement that WON makes in his<BR>book about never letting a gain turn into a loss. But how much of a gain do<BR>you have to get before you move up the stop loss from 7-8% below buy point<BR>to a break even point, without unnecessarily getting pushed out of a<BR>otherwise good stock that might just be undergoing a normal correction?<BR><BR>Also, assuming that you capital is small, such that the commission fees are<BR>not negligible, do you include the costs of the trades in calculating the<BR>sell prices?<BR><BR>Thanks<BR><BR>Mike<BR><BR>Mike Niemotka , PE<BR>Sr. Principal Engineer<BR>Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>Route 120 & Wilson Road<BR>Round Lake, IL 60073<BR>Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>Fax (847) 270-4525<BR>michael_niemotka@baxter.com<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/careers/mailsig/*http://www.hotjobs.com ">HotJobs</a> - Search new jobs daily now
I can't even remember the last time I proposed a stock to the group ... but here goes:
STST is a Nasdaq Small Cap stock, with an ADV of just 7000 shares, trading at $9.30 right now. I do not know their EPS/RS numbers as IBD doesn't seem to print them anymore for the Small Caps.
The company is Sensytech (STST - Nasdaq Small Cap). They are a defense contractor that manufactures passive surveillance systems - early warning systems, airborne imaging systems, communications reconnaissance systems, shipboard support systems etc... The current interest/growth in homeland security seems to bode well for Sensytech, as their backlog has increased a whopping 635% through the first 9 months of the year.
For their June Q this year, they made $0.16 per share on revenue of $9,000,000 (compared to $0.08 per share on revenue of $4.1 million a year earlier).
They currently only have about 4,000,000 shares outstanding, but they did file a share registration in late August to issue a secondary of 2,000,000 shares. I do not know the status of this, and realize that it is definitely a 'question mark' on the stock right now.
With this week's Republican victory in the House and Senate, I've got to figure that these 'under the radar' defense/security stocks have a big chance of becoming insitutional darlings over the next 2 years, as their revenues and earnings ramp. I have no idea what the current institutional interest in STST is though.
The chart is very interesting to me right now. They have been flat-lining for many months now, with $9.25 as a 4-month resistance level, and with $10.46 as the 52-week high. There have been 3 days in the past week (including the last 2 days), where ADV is much higher than normal (around 20,000) - so there has definitely been some accumulation going on. There is resistance here at the $9.25-$9.30 level, again at $10, and at the high of $10.50.
I suspect they will report Q3 earnings next week.
For those with a tolerance/taste for "illiquid CANSLIM", STST is one to watch for a significant, sustained increase in ADV, and a penetration through support levels.
Cheers,
Ian
--Boundary_(ID_z5doA8kZGzFt0xiidJwXog)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
> shipboard support systems etc... The current interest/growth in homeland
> security seems to bode well for Sensytech, as their backlog has increased a
> whopping 635% through the first 9 months of the year.
>
> For their June Q this year, they made $0.16 per share on revenue of $9,000,000
> (compared to $0.08 per share on revenue of $4.1 million a year earlier).
>
> They currently only have about 4,000,000 shares outstanding, but they did file a > share registration in late August to issue a secondary of 2,000,000 shares. I do
> not know the status of this, and realize that it is definitely a 'question mark'
> on the stock right now.
>
> With this week's Republican victory in the House and Senate, I've got to figure
> that these 'under the radar' defense/security stocks have a big chance of
> becoming insitutional darlings over the next 2 years, as their revenues and
> earnings ramp. I have no idea what the current institutional interest in STST is
> though.
>
> The chart is very interesting to me right now. They have been flat-lining for
> many months now, with $9.25 as a 4-month resistance level, and with $10.46 as
> the 52-week high. There have been 3 days in the past week (including the last 2
> days), where ADV is much higher than normal (around 20,000) - so there has
> definitely been some accumulation going on. There is resistance here at the
> $9.25-$9.30 level, again at $10, and at the high of $10.50.
>
> I suspect they will report Q3 earnings next week.
>
> For those with a tolerance/taste for "illiquid CANSLIM", STST is one to watch
> for a significant, sustained increase in ADV, and a penetration through support
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><BR>I don't have that list, but I am pretty sure that they print it once a<BR>week, not sure of the day.<BR><BR>Mike<BR><BR>Mike Niemotka , PE<BR>Sr. Principal Engineer<BR>Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>Route 120 & Wilson Road<BR>Round Lake, IL 60073<BR>Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>Fax (847) 270-4525<BR>michael_niemotka@baxter.com<BR><BR><BR><BR>"Alicia Lensing" <BR><ALENSING@SBCGLOBAL.NE <br canslim@lists.xmission.com To:>t> cc: <BR>Sent by: Subject: [CANSLIM] Archive <BR>owner-canslim@lists.xm <BR>ission.com <BR><BR><BR>11/12/2002 07:35 PM <BR>Please respond to <BR>canslim <BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>Last week in IBD, on the New America page, there was a list of companies<BR>that had been mentioned over the past few months on the New America page.<BR>Does anyone have a copy of that list? I would greatly appreciate it if<BR>anyone could post the names. I like to follow these *new* companies.<BR>Thanks so much.<BR><BR>Alicia Lensing<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE>
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
--0-1574133238-1037304720=:15140
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>SYMC is facing resistance right here.
<P> <B><I>"Edward W. Gjertsen II" <ed@macktracks.com></I></B> wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">Anyone following SYMC?<BR><BR>Ed Gjertsen II<BR>ed@macktracks.com<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE>
Thanks for the wrap-up, as usual, Tom. The sector deflation chart is really
helpful. Did Merrill happen to do one on sectors that actually could raise
prices? That would be interesting to see too, if so. Companies that can raise
prices will be that much better off profitwise. Healthcare comes to mind--not
too many others though.
--part1_114.1ab82a01.2b08485a_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">Thanks for the wrap-up, as usual, Tom. The sector deflation chart is really helpful. Did Merrill happen to do one on sectors that actually could raise prices? That would be interesting to see too, if so. Companies that can raise prices will be that much better off profitwise. Healthcare comes to mind--not too many others though.</FONT></HTML>
In a message dated 11/17/2002 12:10:16 PM Central Standard Time,
jcalkins@olypen.com writes:
> Now let me get this straight. This group is studying WON's concept of
> CANSLIM. Granted, it doesn't mean you need to take a subscription to his
> paper to follow his teaching, BUT! How do you find the quality stocks that
> the big money is moving into? I use IBD's Where The Big Money's Flowing to
> get started with my lists. This follows everything that WON teaches. If
> you do not get the paper, then how do you find those same stocks?
>
JC,
Almost everything that IBD provides can be calculated and screened thru
subscriptions to other data services such as AAII Stock Investor Pro and
TC2000. These relatively inexpensive services did not exist when IBD was
created but are popping up regularly since the internet has made it into
everyones home. I am hoping that IBD recognizes this and somehow provides
more data or it will eventually go out of business. DGO provides services to
screen stocks but they are extremely overpriced and under featured based on
what is available for free of fee elsewhere.
I subscribe to IBD because I like the articles and the constant reminders of
CANSLIM rules, but not because I cannot find stocks that have the best IBD
rankings without IBD. In fact, using only IBD EPS ranking stocks of 80 or
better will keep one out of some of the future best performing stocks. (See
a recent "Ask Bill" question as IBD states this.) By using a tool that
screens the fundamentals instead of the rankings, one will find the best
stocks that may miss some arbitrary cut off by a statistically anomally. By
this I mean it makes more sense to screen for companies meeting CANSLIM
criteria than to look at a subset of stocks that a good growers to determine
if they meet CANSLIM criteria. Stocks that meet CANSLIM criteria will
magically have good IBD rankings. If I wanted I could buy one IBD every week
or two for verification of my data.
To try to duplicate the actual IBD rankings requires some programming
knowledge and therefore everyone cannot do it. I do it as I don't want to
tie my future to a paper that may go out of business at some point. But my
point is that IBD does not do anything mystical to generate this information
and the rankings are not the most important thing needed to find quality
growers. The data behind the rankings is more important and the data is not
available from IBD.
Andy
--part1_93.2651239e.2b094e7a_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>In a message dated 11/17/2002 12:10:16 PM Central Standard Time, jcalkins@olypen.com writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">Now let me get this straight. This group is studying WON's concept of CANSLIM. Granted, it doesn't mean you need to take a subscription to his paper to follow his teaching, BUT! How do you find the quality stocks that the big money is moving into? I use IBD's Where The Big Money's Flowing to get started with my lists. This follows everything that WON teaches. If you do not get the paper, then how do you find those same stocks?</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=3 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0"><BR>
Almost everything that IBD provides can be calculated and screened thru subscriptions to other data services such as AAII Stock Investor Pro and TC2000. These relatively inexpensive services did not exist when IBD was created but are popping up regularly since the internet has made it into everyones home. I am hoping that IBD recognizes this and somehow provides more data or it will eventually go out of business. DGO provides services to screen stocks but they are extremely overpriced and under featured based on what is available for free of fee elsewhere.<BR>
<BR>
I subscribe to IBD because I like the articles and the constant reminders of CANSLIM rules, but not because I cannot find stocks that have the best IBD rankings without IBD. In fact, using only IBD EPS ranking stocks of 80 or better will keep one out of some of the future best performing stocks. (See a recent "Ask Bill" question as IBD states this.) By using a tool that screens the fundamentals instead of the rankings, one will find the best stocks that may miss some arbitrary cut off by a statistically anomally. By this I mean it makes more sense to screen for companies meeting CANSLIM criteria than to look at a subset of stocks that a good growers to determine if they meet CANSLIM criteria. Stocks that meet CANSLIM criteria will magically have good IBD rankings. If I wanted I could buy one IBD every week or two for verification of my data.<BR>
<BR>
To try to duplicate the actual IBD rankings requires some programming knowledge and therefore everyone cannot do it. I do it as I don't want to tie my future to a paper that may go out of business at some point. But my point is that IBD does not do anything mystical to generate this information and the rankings are not the most important thing needed to find quality growers. The data behind the rankings is more important and the data is not available from IBD.<BR>
I am with you John. I subscribe to IBD and DGO because they take all of the
labor out of the screening process for both fundamental and Technical
evaluations. When I find a small group of stocks that I like I can go
elsewhere for more information if I wish. There may be cheaper ways to
approach the process but I don't know of another system that identifies
CANSLIM candidates better or faster.
Charley
--part1_5f.3037eb7a.2b0938b0_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>I am with you John. I subscribe to IBD and DGO because they take all of the labor out of the screening process for both fundamental and Technical evaluations. When I find a small group of stocks that I like I can go elsewhere for more information if I wish. There may be cheaper ways to approach the process but I don't know of another system that identifies CANSLIM candidates better or faster.
Congratulations Mike and Katherine! Sounds like a winning combination. I wish
you much success on your venture. Watch out IBD!!!
Best Regards,
Robert W. Elmer
Coldwell Banker First Shasta
2837 Bechelli Ln.
Redding, CA 96002
RWElmer@aol.com
221-9556 or 1-800-348-7939 ext.156
www.robertelmer.com
--part1_10c.1acaa87f.2b0b2a25_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">Congratulations Mike and Katherine! Sounds like a winning combination. I wish you much success on your venture. Watch out IBD!!!<BR>
CONGRATULATIONS TO BOTH OF YOU. YOU WILL MAKE A GREAT TEAM AND WE WILL ALL
BENEFIT.
KRIS.
--part1_110.1be5020e.2b0c3e60_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=4 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">CONGRATULATIONS TO BOTH OF YOU. YOU WILL MAKE A GREAT TEAM AND WE WILL ALL BENEFIT.<BR>
This is a tricky time in the market, as there are a lot of cross currents. Seasonality and beta chasing are playing a large roll in supporting the market, as is short covering.
This market action reminds me a lot of 4Q '01. There is a lot of subsurface weakness, but strength in certain sectors- notably semiconductors and other techs- is helping prop the market up.
Note how the indices don't want to roll over, even though few breakouts are following through. The support is evident in two places: 1. in the indices, in that distribution days are coming on mediocre increases in volume, and dip buyers quickly come in and support the indices; 2. stock are generally reluctant to break down the way they would in a weaker environment. I have come across numerous stocks that break down from ranges, and then find support and don't continue their rollovers (this is, of course, not the case with all breakdowns, but enough that it shows some underlying buying power).
I think this market is running on residual momentum from the Oct low, combined with seasonality and short covering.
I would tend to scalp this market on either side, rather than try to hold for larger gains.
Eric
rolf hertenstein <rolfh@mindspring.com> wrote:Went back to WON books today to see if I could understand what
the market is telling me since the FTD of 10 October. During October,
the DOW, S&P500 and NASD experienced several distribution days.
Below is the date and percent drop for each index:
DOW S&P NASD
10/22 (1.0) 10/22 (1.1) 10/22 (1.3)
10/24 (2.1) 10/24 (1.5) 10/24 (1.6)
10/28 (0.9) 10/28 (0.8) 10/28 (1.2)
10/31 (0.4) 10/29 (0.9)
10/31 (0.6)
According to WON, this would have raised caution flags by
the end of October. Until yesterday, only the S&P had another
distribution day in November [11/13 with a small (0.1)]. In
November, the 3 indices had several accumulation days, especially
the NASD with the following gains:
DOW: 0.4, 0.1, 0.3, 0.2, 1.7
S&P: 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 2.5
NASD: 2.0, 0.2, 2.3, 2.6, 1.3, 2.3, 0.9
Yesterday the NASD had a distribution day and today both the DOW
and S&P did, though with small % loss and not tremendous volume
increase.
So, I have the following questions:
1. Do the accumulation days in early November negate the October
distribution days, i.e., do we start counting distribution days again now?
2. Or are we still under a yellow flag? Asked differently, how often do
several distribution days *not* signal a probable xx% M decline?
3. Is the better performance of the NASD (less dis days and more
powerful acc days) implying that perhaps folks are still chasing old
90s favorites? And does this tell us anything about the health of this
rally?
TIA for any thoughts or opinions. I've spent most of my 'stock' time
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site
--0-1303066679-1037755536=:37328
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>This is a tricky time in the market, as there are a lot of cross currents. Seasonality and beta chasing are playing a large roll in supporting the market, as is short covering.
<P>This market action reminds me a lot of 4Q '01. There is a lot of subsurface weakness, but strength in certain sectors- notably semiconductors and other techs- is helping prop the market up.
<P>Note how the indices don't want to roll over, even though few breakouts are following through. The support is evident in two places: 1. in the indices, in that distribution days are coming on mediocre increases in volume, and dip buyers quickly come in and support the indices; 2. stock are generally reluctant to break down the way they would in a weaker environment. I have come across numerous stocks that break down from ranges, and then find support and don't continue their rollovers (this is, of course, not the case with all breakdowns, but enough that it shows some underlying buying power).
<P>I think this market is running on residual momentum from the Oct low, combined with seasonality and short covering.
<P>I would tend to scalp this market on either side, rather than try to hold for larger gains.
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">Went back to WON books today to see if I could understand what<BR>the market is telling me since the FTD of 10 October. During October,<BR>the DOW, S&P500 and NASD experienced several distribution days.<BR>Below is the date and percent drop for each index:<BR><BR>DOW S&P NASD<BR>10/22 (1.0) 10/22 (1.1) 10/22 (1.3)<BR>10/24 (2.1) 10/24 (1.5) 10/24 (1.6)<BR>10/28 (0.9) 10/28 (0.8) 10/28 (1.2)<BR>10/31 (0.4) 10/29 (0.9) <BR>10/31 (0.6)<BR><BR>According to WON, this would have raised caution flags by<BR>the end of October. Until yesterday, only the S&P had another<BR>distribution day in November [11/13 with a small (0.1)]. In <BR>November, the 3 indices had several accumulation days, especially<BR>the NASD with the following gains:<BR>DOW: 0.4, 0.1, 0.3, 0.2, 1.7<BR>S&P: 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 2.5<BR>NASD: 2.0, 0.2, 2.3, 2.6, 1.3, 2.3, 0.9<BR><BR>Yesterday the NASD had a distribution day and today both the DOW<BR>and S&P did, though with small % loss and not tremendous volume <BR>increase.<BR><BR>So, I have the following questions:<BR>1. Do the accumulation days in early November negate the October<BR>distribution days, i.e., do we start counting distribution days again now?<BR>2. Or are we still under a yellow flag? Asked differently, how often do<BR>several distribution days *not* signal a probable xx% M decline?<BR>3. Is the better performance of the NASD (less dis days and more <BR>powerful acc days) implying that perhaps folks are still chasing old<BR>90s favorites? And does this tell us anything about the health of this<BR>rally?<BR><BR>TIA for any thoughts or opinions. I've spent most of my 'stock' time<BR>over the past year trying to understand the M.<BR><BR>Rolf <BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/hosting/mailsig/*http://webhosting.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Web Hosting</a> - Let the expert host your site
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering?
Date: 20 Nov 2002 07:19:01 -0800 (PST)
--0-1135521756-1037805541=:55584
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
I don't know whether BVF is the best example as I think they had some regulatory issues in the interim. But I'm a little biased as I'm stuck in FOX which just announced a secondary and I'm in a little quandry as to what to do.
Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:Hi Ian, I've read financial studies that conclude that in the near term, a stock will fall on the secondary offering while the market absorbs the additional shares. In the long run, however, the stock performance depends more on the ability of the company to expand their revenue/earnings. In other words, the same thing that creates the underlying value for the shareholders in all cases. If the offering is a primary, where funds actually go to the company, it becomes particularly important, as the investing community looks for evidence that the company has effectively utilized the funds for growth. I can't be of any help on the near-term trading patterns, as I haven't seen any specific studies on the phenomenon. I've uploaded a chart of BVF, which we discussed here on the CANSLIM list last year about the time they announced their secondary offering (approx mid-November). From what I've observed personally, this is a pretty typical chart pattern. See it at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BVF111902.JPG Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:49 AMSubject: [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering?
i all:
I was wondering if anyone had any real experience following stock trading
patterns after issuance of a secondary offering? What is the typical pattern
after the initial volume surge? Assuming that CANSLIM fundamentals, and
quarterly results are strong, will there be a lag before a price move? Is it
goof or bad for the near-term price action? Does it matter if the pricing
was a little below or above the previous days close? Is there something to
watch for on volume? Any input would be appreciated.
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site
--0-1135521756-1037805541=:55584
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>I don't know whether BVF is the best example as I think they had some regulatory issues in the interim. But I'm a little biased as I'm stuck in FOX which just announced a secondary and I'm in a little quandry as to what to do.
<DIV>I've read financial studies that conclude that in the near term, a stock will fall on the secondary offering while the market absorbs the additional shares. In the long run, however, the stock performance depends more on the ability of the company to expand their revenue/earnings. In other words, the same thing that creates the underlying value for the shareholders in all cases. If the offering is a primary, where funds actually go to the company, it becomes particularly important, as the investing community looks for evidence that the company has effectively utilized the funds for growth.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I can't be of any help on the near-term trading patterns, as I haven't seen any specific studies on the phenomenon. I've uploaded a chart of BVF, which we discussed here on the CANSLIM list last year about the time they announced their secondary offering (approx mid-November). From what I've observed personally, this is a pretty typical chart pattern. See it at:</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:49 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Any common trading patterns after a secondary offering?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>i all:<BR><BR>I was wondering if anyone had any real experience following stock trading<BR>patterns after issuance of a secondary offering? What is the typical pattern<BR>after the initial volume surge? Assuming that CANSLIM fundamentals, and<BR>quarterly results are strong, will there be a lag before a price move? Is it<BR>goof or bad for the near-term price action? Does it matter if the pricing<BR>was a little below or above the previous days close? Is there something to<BR>watch for on volume? Any input would be appreciated.<BR><BR>Than you,<BR><BR>Ian<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A href="mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/hosting/mailsig/*http://webhosting.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Web Hosting</a> - Let the expert host your site
Mike what sort of alerts does your site offer i.e based upon your criteria or can I input my own criteria etc. You can answer offline about the particulars
Mike Gibbons <mike@proactech.com> wrote:Bill,
Thank you for making that point. The alerts are intended to supplement the
watchlist information that we post on the site and certainly should not be
used in isolation from the technical analysis we provide, supplemented by
the subscriber's own due diligence from other sources.
This gives me an opportunity to comment that I was a little disconcerted to
see yesterday's alert for MVL posted immediately to this group. Apart from
the misuse of proprietary information, which I'll ignore for now because of
the publicity it gives the site, the subscrbers to this list did not have
the benefit of knowing the context in which the alert was posted.
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
btriffet@earthlink.net
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:32 AM
Hi Fred,
Let me say while the cwhcharts is a great site, it would be a huge
disservice
to Mike - and now Katherine - to base your buying or selling purely on the
basis of alerts.
Alerts are a great idea (which I also plan to check out)to suppliment other
sources. I would highly recommend following up with your own due diligence
of
the stocks fundamentals and recent news events.
Enjoy,
-Bill Triffet
On Mon, 18 Nov 2002 22:43:34 -0600 Fred Winkle wrote:
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site
--0-589414209-1037805924=:77981
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Mike what sort of alerts does your site offer i.e based upon your criteria or can I input my own criteria etc. You can answer offline about the particulars
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">Bill,<BR><BR>Thank you for making that point. The alerts are intended to supplement the<BR>watchlist information that we post on the site and certainly should not be<BR>used in isolation from the technical analysis we provide, supplemented by<BR>the subscriber's own due diligence from other sources.<BR><BR>This gives me an opportunity to comment that I was a little disconcerted to<BR>see yesterday's alert for MVL posted immediately to this group. Apart from<BR>the misuse of proprietary information, which I'll ignore for now because of<BR>the publicity it gives the site, the subscrbers to this list did not have<BR>the benefit of knowing the context in which the alert was posted.<BR><BR>Aloha,<BR><BR>Mike Gibbons<BR>Proactive Technologies, LLC<BR>http://www.proactech.com<BR><BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of<BR>btriffet@earthlink.net<BR>Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 9:32 AM<BR>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume<BR><BR><BR>Hi Fred,<BR><BR>Let me say while the cwhcharts is a great site, it would be a huge<BR>disservice<BR>to Mike - and now Katherine - to base your buying or selling purely on the<BR>basis of alerts.<BR><BR>Alerts are a great idea (which I also plan to check out)to suppliment other<BR>sources. I would highly recommend following up with your own due diligence<BR>of<BR>the stocks fundamentals and recent news events.<BR><BR>Enjoy,<BR><BR>-Bill Triffet<BR><BR>On Mon, 18 Nov 2002 22:43:34 -0600 Fred Winkle <WINKLE@SWBELL.NET>wrote:<BR><BR>> Down 15 cents at the close but didn't sell<BR>> once I learned that I owned<BR>> a piece of Spider Man. Hopefully he'll throw<BR>> out his web and we'll climb to a<BR>> new high tomorrow.<BR>> <BR>> Fred<BR>> <BR>> <BR>><BR>> ----- Original Message -----<BR>> From:<BR>> <A title="winkle@swbell.net<br">> href="mailto:winkle@swbell.net">Fred Winkle</A><BR>><BR>><BR>> To: <A title∩nslim@lists.xmission.com<br>><BR>> href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A><BR>><BR>> Sent: Monday, November 18, 2002 1:42<BR>> PM<BR>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] UOPX volume<BR>><BR>> Let's see if I can make it 3 for 3. I just<BR>> got an alert from them on MVL<BR>> and bought it at $9.20 (it's at $9.24). I'll<BR>> look up MVL after I sell it this<BR>> afternoon. First time to ever buy a stock<BR>> without knowing anything about them<BR>> (bad).<BR>> <BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"<BR>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/hosting/mailsig/*http://webhosting.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Web Hosting</a> - Let the expert host your site
Healthcare and Financial Services? Doesn't that seem like a contradiction? All those positive stimuli leaving me extra cash, and I rush out to spend it at my doctor and the bank? Not really very ambitious :)
Cheers,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 20, 2002 3:05 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] I Got It
I spent most of the day (Monday) talking to several money managers, a tax specialist and a member of Alliance Capital's research team. It was a fun day and evening, filled with guarded optimism.... Merrill Lynch hosted the events..... the guy from Alliance said that we would remember what he had to say if we remembered 3 words .... I Got It.... his fuel for the 2003 economy....
I = interest rates
G = government spending
O = oil prices
T = tax incentives
I = low inventories
T = time to buy equities
They all were predicting that the 2003 leaders will be healthcare and financial services.
Gene
--Boundary_(ID_pBjv4YRsk+Qd3W+a83GZ8w)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
I'd like to jump in and say, the internet/ comp security group would be a good play on the whole terrorism issue. Look for ones that specialize in firewall/server protection. This could include hardware as well. Not sure how much spending has been done by IT depts or how much more there will be but I bet there will be more as threats increase.
-Bill
-------Original Message-------
Sent: 11/21/02 06:44 AM
> Tom,
Forgive me- was not trying to box you into a corner. You speak "positively" of the internet / computer security group. Do you still (today) speak positively of these groups or would you say their steam has been expelled?
Kelly
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, November 20, 2002 8:50 PM
I don't recall saying any particular about the e-commerce sector. I did
speak positively of the internet / computer security groups.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, November 20, 2002 4:19 PM
Tom,
If I remember correctly you suggested a move in the e-commerce realm a few
weeks ago- would you still advise the same today?
Kelly
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 6:07 AM
Norm, the internet e-commerce group has been strong lately, hence the group
RS of 93 now. Others in the top six are AMZN, EXPE, UOPX, GYI, & TREE.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, November 18, 2002 10:41 PM
Anyone else notice this one did what SYMC did. Specifically, a low vol
breakout from a handle. SYMC immediately pulled back on below-avg-vol.
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
--Boundary_(ID_Lzp5ldAtBbqxDgVCBNtmuw)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
Eric
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:Katherine,I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.Thanks----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian, Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well." I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian
Eric JaenikePresidentVector Investment Management303-300-2961
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-872564935-1037916168=:57317
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
<P>Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
<P>I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
<P>It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
<P>Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
<P>As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
Your list illustrates my confusion. One of the things that makes today unusual is the behaviour of the recent winners. 7 of the 9 isues in your list seriously underperformed the indices today (ATRS and PIXR both followed 'M", up 4%+ each). What does it mean when the emerging leaders of the first 6 weeks of the bull suddenly weaken, while the indices surge? Is there a precendence for this? Does WON have an opinion on it?
Shouldn't the newly emerging winners consistently have been powering ahead 5%+ today?
Thanks,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Eric Jaenike
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
Eric
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote:
Katherine,
I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.
Thanks
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian,
Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
Eric Jaenike
President
Vector Investment Management
303-300-2961
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--Boundary_(ID_336zZ0imctyzpvdpgOBWNg)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something. </BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BR>
I think you should really worry more when people are confident that it is real. And who are "people" anyway? The clowns on TV who say the market is going to tank while their traders are buying up all the shares the talking head shook free?<BR>
I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks.
I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 8:52 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Ian, my security stocks did quite nicely today, as did my IT stocks in my VR Fund.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
--Boundary_(ID_oI50DKigRUo8MgdvfKpV0g)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
In determining whether "people" are confident the rally is real, I think you need to use a consistent indicator across time. For that, I use % bull/bear. Bulls are above 50, bears are below 25. That is pretty extreme.
As for who "people" are who are questioning this rally, I am referring to the canslimmers on this list, per the previous post I was referring to. In a true bull run, it is fairly obvious where the leaders are, and it only requires a little work to find them. I would argue that you have to do quite a bit of work to uncover the leadership here, which is pretty thin for a run of this size. For example, in last years' 4Q, which I don't consider a true bull run but rather a playable oversold bounce, the homebuilders were right in your face as leaders. The move was broad and aggressive (there were other leaders too, of course). I don't see that here.
Eric
AJAskey@aol.com wrote:
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
I think you should really worry more when people are confident that it is real. And who are "people" anyway? The clowns on TV who say the market is going to tank while their traders are buying up all the shares the talking head shook free?
Andy
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-1842552158-1037978736=:36970
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>In determining whether "people" are confident the rally is real, I think you need to use a consistent indicator across time. For that, I use % bull/bear. Bulls are above 50, bears are below 25. That is pretty extreme.
<P>As for who "people" are who are questioning this rally, I am referring to the canslimmers on this list, per the previous post I was referring to. In a true bull run, it is fairly obvious where the leaders are, and it only requires a little work to find them. I would argue that you have to do quite a bit of work to uncover the leadership here, which is pretty thin for a run of this size. For example, in last years' 4Q, which I don't consider a true bull run but rather a playable oversold bounce, the homebuilders were right in your face as leaders. The move was broad and aggressive (there were other leaders too, of course). I don't see that here.
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px" TYPE="CITE">I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something. </BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>I think you should really worry more when people are confident that it is real. And who are "people" anyway? The clowns on TV who say the market is going to tank while their traders are buying up all the shares the talking head shook free?<BR><BR>Andy<BR></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</a> - Powerful. Affordable. <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</a>
In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.
In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but don't act as well as the former category.
For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, etc.
Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to include it.
In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong as the move in the indices would indicate.
Hope that provides some clarity.
Eric
Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:Hi Eric, A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are "working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks? Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Eric Jaenike To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:02 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
Eric
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote: Katherine,I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.Thanks----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian, Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well." I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian
Eric JaenikePresidentVector Investment Management303-300-2961
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-579322563-1037979877=:95755
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.
<P>In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but don't act as well as the former category.
<P>For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, etc.
<P>Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to include it.
<P>In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong as the move in the indices would indicate.
<DIV>A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are "working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks?</DIV>
<P>I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
<P>Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
<P>I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
<P>It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
<P>Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
<P>As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</A> - Powerful. Affordable. <A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</A></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</a> - Powerful. Affordable. <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</a>
thanks for the posting and the interesting observation .I always find your comments very thoughtful and sensible. thanks
"Edward W. Gjertsen II" <ed@macktracks.com> wrote:
We have found this recent rise to be of great interest. What we found over the prior 34 months that when we bought leaders and were then forced to sell - the next time any opportunities came to buy again was at least 2-4 months later. This last time around û it was 4 weeks. This meant, in our opinion, that sellers were losing control. We are now approximately 30% invested and climbing. During a CANSLIM seminar with WON, one thing has stood out at us. WON mentioned that there are very, very few perfect CANSLIM candidates. We try to use weight of the evidence. This is not a pick and chose rule, but if things are not perfect, what would tip the scales for us to purchase. One big item which I hope starts its own life as a thread is position sizing. We began purchasing ╜ positions to place a toe in the water. As stocks came under some pressure, we then added to positions at key technical points. We believe last Friday was a turning point for the markets. On the weekly television/internet show I participate in, I mentioned how well the market reacted to negative news. Intel downgrade, bad economic numbers, etc. The Michigan consumer sentiment provided a boost, but the market did not buckle to all the bad news, very impressive. Our firm held client seminars on September 18 and 21st titled the ôEnd is Nearö. This was the first time since Oct Æ99 that we have been positive on the market. The name of the seminar was an attention getter, but the message was clear. We believe, as we do today, that there is a cyclical (short-term, 3-6 month) opportunity here to make some money in the market. We are still in a secular bear market until we are proven otherwise. But in the meantime, we are buying. As always, I am very impressed with the depth of knowledge this group brings to the table. As this market heats up, I look forward to reading all your comments.
Ed Gjertsen II
ed@macktracks.com
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PM
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-1125638779-1037982646=:51182
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>thanks for the posting and the interesting observation .I always find your comments very thoughtful and sensible. thanks
<P> <B><I>"Edward W. Gjertsen II" <ed@macktracks.com></I></B> wrote:
<META content="Microsoft Word 10 (filtered)" name=Generator>
<STYLE>
<!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle17
{font-family:"Times New Roman";
color:blue;
font-weight:normal;
font-style:normal;
text-decoration:none none;}
@page Section1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;}
div.Section1
{page:Section1;}
-->
</STYLE>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue">We have found this recent rise to be of great interest. What we found over the prior 34 months that when we bought leaders and were then forced to sell - the next time any opportunities came to buy again was at least 2-4 months later. This last time around û it was 4 weeks. This meant, in our opinion, that sellers were losing control. We are now approximately 30% invested and climbing. During a CANSLIM seminar with WON, one thing has stood out at us. WON mentioned that there are very, very few perfect CANSLIM candidates. We try to use weight of the evidence. This is not a pick and chose rule, but if things are not perfect, what would tip the scales for us to purchase. One big item which I hope starts its own life as a thread is position sizing. We began purchasing ╜ positions to place a toe in the water. As stocks came under some pressure, we then added to positions at key technical points. We believe last Friday was a turning point for the markets. On the weekly television/internet show I participate in, I mentioned how well the market reacted to negative news. Intel downgrade, bad economic numbers, etc. The </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=blue size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue">Michigan</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=blue size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue"> consumer sentiment provided a boost, but the market did not buckle to all the bad news, very impressive. Our firm held client seminars on September 18 and 21st titled the ôEnd is Nearö. This was the first time since Oct Æ99 that we have been positive on the market. The name of the seminar was an attention getter, but the message was clear. We believe, as we do today, that there is a cyclical (short-term, 3-6 month) opportunity here to make some money in the market. We are still in a secular bear market until we are proven otherwise. But in the meantime, we are buying. As always, I am very impressed with the depth of knowledge this group brings to the table. As this market heats up, I look forward to reading all your comments.</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
I don't think I did a good job of explaining myself.
I am, in essence, comparing a narrow class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics for this rally with the same class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics from previous rallies/"true" bull runs to gain some insight as to the durability of the rally, and its underlying quality. One characteristic in "X" is that the stock has to be at a new or multiyear high.
Now, I am not saying that leadership for a run comes only from stocks at new or multiyear highs. What I am doing is simply looking at stocks that meet that definition, and drawing inferences from the size, concentration, and breadth of that list. Thus, stocks such as EBAY and SFNT are not included in that list. FRX would be. My list of stocks I gave was not meant to be taken as the totality of stocks on that "well" list, just as examples of those stocks.
Another characteristic in "X" is that it has to have broken out and run well after the breakout point. Thus, stocks such as MNTR and WFMI are not on my list because they just recently broke out, and have not yet proven that they have run well. Does that mean that they are not potential leaders? No. Does it mean they shouldn't have been purchased on the breakout? Certainly not. Does it mean they don't meet the definitions of "X"? Yes.
Finally, the stocks need to have run strongly. Again, all I am doing is looking at the "best of the best", and getting a feel for that group. For example, take BLUD. It broke out of its recent range at around 19. As of close yesterday, it was at 21, for a gain of about 10% in just under 7 weeks. Not bad, but at the same time, the S&P has run about 20%. The situation is similar with IGT. It broke out about 5 weeks ago, has run from 70/71 to about 79. Not bad, but somewhat less impressive when compared to the runs in the indices. So would I consider BLUD and IGT to be great stocks in this run? Tough call. I think it is a little gray.
Finally, and this time I mean it, there are lots of other stocks that are forming solid bases, but which have not yet broken out. Those are all potential leaders. However, they received no mention in my email because they didn't meet the definition of "X".
I am using this narrow study as one of many things I look at to get a feel for what's happening. A more comprehensive and insightful study would be to expand the definition of "X" to include these other types of stocks. I think that would be of much more value than the restricted definition of "X" that I used. However, that is not what I did.
When I look at this run, I see a 7ish week rally that has run 20-30% on the general indices, that has seen a 70% run in the SOX, and a skew in terms of participation that is too heavily weighted towards speculative and beaten down tech relative to new leadership.
I see weak participation by retailers (some smaller, niche stocks (TSCO CHS JOSB PETM ROST KSWS CENT SHRP (until recently) AZO CPWM) have done well, but retail is a very large category, and will always have some shops doing well, so I don't consider their moves taken in isolation to be indicative of a strong consumer. WMTs weak same store sales numbers bother me a lot. The consumer has been exploiting cash out refis aggressively as well, which has been boosting retail spending. Ex-refis, I think retail would be materially weaker. I consider this a negative in evaluating the health of this rally.
I see weakness in the homebuilders, which I find troubling. I find the recent participation of highly speculative tech stocks disconcerting. I also find the bull/bear %, as well as the 30 day put/call moving average, 30 day ma of a/d on the NYSE, and the NYSE up vol. as a % of total volume indicative of a looming top. (A bit off topic, I know). There are a lot of other things I'm looking at as well that make me uncomfortable with the current rally.
So, in sum, when I look at all these things, and look at the current state of leadership considering we've had a substantial run, I lean more towards a cautious stance toward this rally at this point than an aggressive one.
Hope that helps.
Eric
Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, then, you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts before considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still not clear to me, however, is how you select a stock for consideration as a CANSLIM stock when making your leader board. If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that have shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=6, AvgVol>=30000, forward growth rate>=15--that's just a simple way of identifying "growth" stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM fundamental tests and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but that's a fairly substantial list of stocks acting well in my mind (The average gain in these stocks off the 10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks such as INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, SCSC, or PNRA. That's a small sampling of stocks with decent (though not perfect) charts off the list of 263 that are doing well, so not a complete list of "stocks doing well" in my mind. I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going to find perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but certainly if one weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as this, there's a lot of emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are subtle, as they are not en masse as with the Fall's homebuilder's move you mentioned, but in a new Bull market (cyclical though it may be), the new leaders will emerge one by one from various industries. Only when and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong group moves and stong breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I think it's actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy that money is not rushing headlong into former leaders as it did in so many of the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that money might be flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON states that about 14% of "former winners" will actually have what it takes to make a fresh run in a new Bull market. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Eric Jaenike To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 9:44 AMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.
In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but don't act as well as the former category.
For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, etc.
Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to include it.
In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong as the move in the indices would indicate.
Hope that provides some clarity.
Eric
Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote: Hi Eric, A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are "working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks? Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Eric Jaenike To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:02 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
Eric
kentuna <kentuna@cox.net> wrote: Katherine,I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.Thanks----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 2:04 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Ian, Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well." I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:23 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian
Eric JaenikePresidentVector Investment Management303-300-2961
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-1393317237-1037990126=:91621
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>I don't think I did a good job of explaining myself.
<P>I am, in essence, comparing a narrow class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics for this rally with the same class of stocks defined by "X" characteristics from previous rallies/"true" bull runs to gain some insight as to the durability of the rally, and its underlying quality. One characteristic in "X" is that the stock has to be at a new or multiyear high.
<P>Now, I am not saying that leadership for a run comes only from stocks at new or multiyear highs. What I am doing is simply looking at stocks that meet that definition, and drawing inferences from the size, concentration, and breadth of that list. Thus, stocks such as EBAY and SFNT are not included in that list. FRX would be. My list of stocks I gave was not meant to be taken as the totality of stocks on that "well" list, just as examples of those stocks.
<P>Another characteristic in "X" is that it has to have broken out and run well after the breakout point. Thus, stocks such as MNTR and WFMI are not on my list because they just recently broke out, and have not yet proven that they have run well. Does that mean that they are not potential leaders? No. Does it mean they shouldn't have been purchased on the breakout? Certainly not. Does it mean they don't meet the definitions of "X"? Yes.
<P>Finally, the stocks need to have run strongly. Again, all I am doing is looking at the "best of the best", and getting a feel for that group. For example, take BLUD. It broke out of its recent range at around 19. As of close yesterday, it was at 21, for a gain of about 10% in just under 7 weeks. Not bad, but at the same time, the S&P has run about 20%. The situation is similar with IGT. It broke out about 5 weeks ago, has run from 70/71 to about 79. Not bad, but somewhat less impressive when compared to the runs in the indices. So would I consider BLUD and IGT to be great stocks in this run? Tough call. I think it is a little gray.
<P>Finally, and this time I mean it, there are lots of other stocks that are forming solid bases, but which have not yet broken out. Those are all potential leaders. However, they received no mention in my email because they didn't meet the definition of "X".
<P>I am using this narrow study as one of many things I look at to get a feel for what's happening. A more comprehensive and insightful study would be to expand the definition of "X" to include these other types of stocks. I think that would be of much more value than the restricted definition of "X" that I used. However, that is not what I did.
<P>When I look at this run, I see a 7ish week rally that has run 20-30% on the general indices, that has seen a 70% run in the SOX, and a skew in terms of participation that is too heavily weighted towards speculative and beaten down tech relative to new leadership.
<P>I see weak participation by retailers (some smaller, niche stocks (TSCO CHS JOSB PETM ROST KSWS CENT SHRP (until recently) AZO CPWM) have done well, but retail is a very large category, and will always have some shops doing well, so I don't consider their moves taken in isolation to be indicative of a strong consumer. WMTs weak same store sales numbers bother me a lot. The consumer has been exploiting cash out refis aggressively as well, which has been boosting retail spending. Ex-refis, I think retail would be materially weaker. I consider this a negative in evaluating the health of this rally.
<P>I see weakness in the homebuilders, which I find troubling. I find the recent participation of highly speculative tech stocks disconcerting. I also find the bull/bear %, as well as the 30 day put/call moving average, 30 day ma of a/d on the NYSE, and the NYSE up vol. as a % of total volume indicative of a looming top. (A bit off topic, I know). There are a lot of other things I'm looking at as well that make me uncomfortable with the current rally.
<P>So, in sum, when I look at all these things, and look at the current state of leadership considering we've had a substantial run, I lean more towards a cautious stance toward this rally at this point than an aggressive one.
<DIV>Thanks for the clarification, Eric. If I understand you correctly, then, you are insisting on perfect charts and strong moves since the breakouts before considering something for inclusion on your list. What is still not clear to me, however, is how you select a stock for consideration as a CANSLIM stock when making your leader board.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If I look at action since the market bottom, I find 263 stocks that have shown relative outperformance to the S&P (Price>=6, AvgVol>=30000, forward growth rate>=15--that's just a simple way of identifying "growth" stocks). Granted, not all of them would pass all the CANSLIM fundamental tests and not all of them have yet staged breakouts, but that's a fairly substantial list of stocks acting well in my mind (The average gain in these stocks off the 10/10 bottom is 45%). I wondered why you wouldn't have mentioned stocks such as INFY, MNTR, SFNT, FRX, OVTI, WFMI, VIP, BLUD, ICUI, SYK, EBAY, IGT, SCSC, or PNRA. That's a small sampling of stocks with decent (though not perfect) charts off the list of 263 that are doing well, so not a complete list of "stocks doing well" in my mind.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I believe that after such a strong downtrend, that we're not going to find perfection in all aspects, either fundamental or technical, but certainly if one weighs the preponderance of evidence on a list such as this, there's a lot of emerging leadership. Granted, the moves are subtle, as they are not en masse as with the Fall's homebuilder's move you mentioned, but in a new Bull market (cyclical though it may be), the new leaders will emerge one by one from various industries. Only when and if a strong Bull ensues will we see strong group moves and stong breakout moves one after the other. In the nascent stages, I think it's actually encouraging that the emerging leaders are quietly gaining strength, unknown to the general public. I also think that it's healthy that money is not rushing headlong into former leaders as it did in so many of the previous bear rallies and that it's not a "bad thing" that money might be flowing to some beaten down quality stocks. I think WON states that about 14% of "former winners" will actually have what it takes to make a fresh run in a new Bull market.</DIV>
<P>In saying "well", I am referring to "well" relative to the move in the indices as well as relative to the universe of canslim stocks that have broken out, i.e. the best of the breakouts.
<P>In a bull run, you're going to see lots of breakouts. Some of those breakouts will work "well", in that they have strong price appreciation, tepid pullbacks, etc. In other words, really strong canslim breakouts. Others will work fine, in that they hold above their breakouts, move up, etc, but don't act as well as the former category.
<P>For the purposes of the post, I was using "well" to mean this best of the best group. So, for example, TSCO has acted OK, in that its above its breakout, etc, but it hasn't acted "well" in that it dropped below its pivot (albiet slightly), and there have been some p/v yellow flags, etc.
<P>Also for the purposes of the discussion, I am excluding stocks like UNTD, which I believe is the combo of the old Netzero and Juno. While it certainly is a canslim/turnaround type stock, I am excluding it from the list, because I excluded that type of stock from the previous runs' lists, and I want to be consistent across comparisons. That is not to say it is not a playable stock, but merely that for comparison purposes, I don't want to include it.
<P>In sum, for the move we've had in the indices, the doing "well" list, which I take as a barometer of market health, seems awfully thin. The point I was trying to make is simply that the market in general is not as strong as the move in the indices would indicate.
<DIV>A question for you--I noticed in your list of stocks that are "working" that there were many CANSLIM quality growth stocks that *have* been working and demonstrating leadership noticeably missing from your list. When you look at market health, how are you defining the candidates you consider to be CANSLIM stocks?</DIV>
<P>I think this market is not nearly as strong as the indices make it appear. While it clearly has a bid under it, the very fact that people are questioning whether it is real or not says something.
<P>Market leadership is firmly rooted in the SOX right now, the playground of the beta chasers, and I think that is pulling the market along with it. While there certainly is playable strength in the market, I think a true bull run would display much better leadership. We are up 32% on the Nas from the October low, and 21% on the S&P. That is a long way to go without clear, assertive leadership. Consider also that we are now above 50% bulls.
<P>I can find only a handful of stocks that have broken out and really performed well. These include VRNT IDXX BSX ELAB TEVA LCI ATRS IGT PIXR. (These are only the ones I have on my own lists. There are, of course, others, such as ISSX, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am excluding them as not pure, traditional CANSLIM). Contrast these with the runs in stocks such as KLAC, INTC, VSEA, AMAT, LRCX, QLGC, etc.
<P>It seems I am having to work far to hard to find the leadership in this market for this to be the solid bull run the indices would have us believe.
<P>Most recently, there have been runs in the real speculative dogs, such as PUMA AKAM INKT LOOK ARBA LEXR OPWV RSAS CELL WGRD TIVO. I consider that to also be a sign that this run is getting old.
<P>As I watch this run, I am constantly reminded of last year's 4Q. I think this run still has legs, but I would pay very close attention to my longs.
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I know this has been discussed before, but would you kindly define small cap and large cap again. What is the actual criteria that is used.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Just a quick note... re your comment "It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well."
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I noticed SFNT powering ahead today. I've also noticed that money is definitely coming *out* of the safe-haven defensive issues such as healthcare/hospitals, etc. In general, I see far more breakouts than I've seen since last year, so all together, still looks promising to me.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</A> - Powerful. Affordable. <A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</A></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P><BR>
<HR SIZE=1>
Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</A> - Powerful. Affordable. <A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</A></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</a> - Powerful. Affordable. <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</a>
Up over 50% on high volume in two days, not long after a couple of downgrades. What gives?
Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote:Hi Ian, With the Republicans in control, defense contractors will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will develop for some time. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Tom: I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks. I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out. Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 8:52 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Ian, my security stocks did quite nicely today, as did my IT stocks in my VR Fund. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian
Bob Raible
Sunny San Jose,CA
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-1805681790-1038011726=:51277
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>Up over 50% on high volume in two days, not long after a couple of downgrades. What gives?
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>With the Republicans in control, defense contractors will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will develop for some time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=ianstm@shaw.ca href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Tom:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>Bob Raible<br>Sunny San Jose,CA<p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</a> - Powerful. Affordable. <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</a>
Sorry, I should have put a "OT" in the subject. I was just curious since I hadn't seen any positive news for the stock or the sector.
Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote:Bob, when a stock loses over 90% of its value in less than a year, a dead cat bounce is common. And when you have gone from over $21 to under $2, any "rally" can show impressive returns for the short term period. On the other hand, after this 50% gain you mention, it can still triple, yet leave investors that bought earlier this year with a 15% loss. It has a non-standard fiscal year, ended September. And its Q4 was a disaster with over a $3 per share loss recorded. I would assume, since I will not bother with any research, that they wrote off a lot of stuff in that quarter. Still, forecasts are for losing another dollar during the current year, so doesn't meet any CANSLIM I know of, including its current Group RS of D minus. ----- Original Message ----- From: Bob Raible To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 7:35 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] What's with KLIC???
Up over 50% on high volume in two days, not long after a couple of downgrades. What gives?
Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote: Hi Ian, With the Republicans in control, defense contractors will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will develop for some time. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Tom: I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks. I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out. Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 8:52 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Ian, my security stocks did quite nicely today, as did my IT stocks in my VR Fund. ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy? It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues. It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well. So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'? Ian
Bob Raible
Sunny San Jose,CA
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
Bob Raible
Sunny San Jose,CA
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-192631753-1038019370=:74894
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>Sorry, I should have put a "OT" in the subject. I was just curious since I hadn't seen any positive news for the stock or the sector.
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Bob, when a stock loses over 90% of its value in less than a year, a dead cat bounce is common. And when you have gone from over $21 to under $2, any "rally" can show impressive returns for the short term period. On the other hand, after this 50% gain you mention, it can still triple, yet leave investors that bought earlier this year with a 15% loss.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>It has a non-standard fiscal year, ended September. And its Q4 was a disaster with over a $3 per share loss recorded. I would assume, since I will not bother with any research, that they wrote off a lot of stuff in that quarter. Still, forecasts are for losing another dollar during the current year, so doesn't meet any CANSLIM I know of, including its current Group RS of D minus.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=pscalare@yahoo.com href="mailto:pscalare@yahoo.com">Bob Raible</A> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>With the Republicans in control, defense contractors will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will develop for some time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=ianstm@shaw.ca href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Tom:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>Bob Raible<BR>Sunny San Jose,CA
<P><BR>
<HR SIZE=1>
Do you Yahoo!?<BR><A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</A> - Powerful. Affordable. <A href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</A> </BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>Bob Raible<br>Sunny San Jose,CA<p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</a> - Powerful. Affordable. <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</a>
Up over 50% on high volume in two days, not long after a couple of downgrades. What gives?
Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote:
Hi Ian,
With the Republicans in control, defense contractors will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will develop for some time.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Tom:
I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks.
I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 8:52 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Ian, my security stocks did quite nicely today, as did my IT stocks in my VR Fund.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
Bob Raible
Sunny San Jose,CA
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--Boundary_(ID_M3lgM48hMjFW4o8xzJheVg)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
Bob, when a stock loses over 90% of its value in less than a year, a dead cat bounce is common. And when you have gone from over $21 to under $2, any "rally" can show impressive returns for the short term period. On the other hand, after this 50% gain you mention, it can still triple, yet leave investors that bought earlier this year with a 15% loss.
It has a non-standard fiscal year, ended September. And its Q4 was a disaster with over a $3 per share loss recorded. I would assume, since I will not bother with any research, that they wrote off a lot of stuff in that quarter. Still, forecasts are for losing another dollar during the current year, so doesn't meet any CANSLIM I know of, including its current Group RS of D minus.
----- Original Message -----
From: Bob Raible
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 7:35 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] What's with KLIC???
Up over 50% on high volume in two days, not long after a couple of downgrades. What gives?
Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote:
Hi Ian,
With the Republicans in control, defense contractors will benefit for the next two years anyway. It will cover all materials, from boots to guns to software, but the greatest increase in spending will be among technology. I expect this to include both hardware such as smart bombs, cruise missiles and other stand off type weaponry, as well as anti-terrorist software such as network and PC level security. The reorganization of 26 different agencies into the new Homeland Defense agency will likely disrupt normal spending patterns. But then, once again Congress has failed to pass the required budgets for most agencies, and don't plan to do so until after the new Congress reconvenes in January. So most agencies are still operating on last year's budget, so little new spending will develop for some time.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 2:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Hi Tom:
I guess I was thinking of physical, defense-related security. If you are referring to tech security such as securing networks, PC's etc..., I'm sure they must have all done well today, as today was reminiscent of late 1999 for tech stocks.
I was thinking of small companies that are going to benefit from the coming government spending spree. I suspect I am a little early to this game, and need to give it more time to play out.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 8:52 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Ian, my security stocks did quite nicely today, as did my IT stocks in my VR Fund.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 4:23 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Is anyone else finding any "NEW" winners emerging from this buying frenzy?
It seems to me that several recent rally leaders are rolling over ugly today - HITK, LCI, ACET - while the indices power ahead, propelled by the most heavily shorted isues.
It is also baffling to me that the sectors that stand to benefit the most from coming increases in government spending - the defense and security sector - are watching this action from the sideline as well.
So am I mising the new leaders of the bull, or is this just shot-term traders using liquidity to squeeze heavily shorted positions? Opinions? Whither 'M'?
Ian
Bob Raible
Sunny San Jose,CA
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--Boundary_(ID_LQAdXxgq0l9jLwja2igtkg)
Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
Here's a question: who are these 50% bullish advisors? I can't find anyone
who is really bullish. Some, like me, are bullish now but will change in a
heartbeat if M turns against us. But who besides Joe Battapaglia is really
bullish? Don Hays says he is bullish be he has raise 11% cash in the past
few months (data from his site at <A HREF="http://www.haysmarketfocus.com">http://www.haysmarketfocus.com</A>).
Could it be that these investment advisors are hurting for clients and would
be committing career suicide by admitting bearishness? How 'bout the AAII
survey. I vote bearish in that every week because everyone likes the number
low. I'm just doing my part and I wonder how many are doing the same. These
two surveys appear to me to be one of the easiest things to game without fear
of the SEC.
Andy
In a message dated 11/23/2002 7:35:08 PM Central Standard Time,
Spencer48@aol.com writes:
> What gives me pause about the near future strength of the market is
> this: The Investor's Intelligence Bullish Advisors are at 50%; the Bearish
>
> Advisors are below 30%. These %s are very near bearish levels (based on
> past
> experience with the percentages). This indicator, by the way, is in a
> graphic at the bottom of The Big Picture page in IBD.
--part1_95.261a2e7e.2b11a937_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Here's a question: who are these 50% bullish advisors? I can't find anyone who is really bullish. Some, like me, are bullish now but will change in a heartbeat if M turns against us. But who besides Joe Battapaglia is really bullish? Don Hays says he is bullish be he has raise 11% cash in the past few months (data from his site at <A HREF="http://www.haysmarketfocus.com">http://www.haysmarketfocus.com</A>).<BR>
<BR>
Could it be that these investment advisors are hurting for clients and would be committing career suicide by admitting bearishness? How 'bout the AAII survey. I vote bearish in that every week because everyone likes the number low. I'm just doing my part and I wonder how many are doing the same. These two surveys appear to me to be one of the easiest things to game without fear of the SEC.<BR>
<BR>
Andy<BR>
<BR>
In a message dated 11/23/2002 7:35:08 PM Central Standard Time, Spencer48@aol.com writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">What gives me pause about the near future strength of the market is <BR>
this: The Investor's Intelligence Bullish Advisors are at 50%; the Bearish <BR>
Advisors are below 30%. These %s are very near bearish levels (based on past <BR>
experience with the percentages). This indicator, by the way, is in a <BR>
graphic at the bottom of The Big Picture page in IBD.</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"> As far as your "gaming" comment, in general, I think less of the SEC <BR>
than I do of independent advisors even though your comment may imply the <BR>
opposite. As for the AAII survey, it seems that your "cause and effect" is <BR>
out of focus: it is not merely the "vote" of bearishness that causes the <BR>
market to rally, it is the despondancy of investors due to a bear market that <BR>
causes them to "vote" bearish, and which then leads (due to a turnabout in <BR>
investor psychology and a lot of money on the sidelines) into a bull market. <BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">I contend in the short term that it is the final vote tally that matters. I think it is a case of the tail wagging the dog. If the vote says people are bearish then a large amount of money comes into the system. If the total comes out bullish then the Joe Average investor has been conditioned to become bearish over the last couple years.<BR>
<BR>
Are the voters bullish now? I see no evidence from the poll that leads me to think this is true other than people say so. The short interest levels listed in IBD show that we are at much higher levels than in July so people are shorting the rallies and not covering (it's off the high but the level now is much higher than it goes when the market is really bullish). The Commitment of Traders report of the S&P500 futures shows more shorts than longs (especially on the retail side). I don't know anyone in person or on the net who is go-go bullish. Those polls work on the sheep because the sheep do as they are told.<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"> By the way, it is ironically funny that the advisors, referred to in <BR>
your E-mail, are accused of "gaming" the system with their dissemblings, when <BR>
later it is suggested by you that you vote "bearish" just so that the market <BR>
will turn into a bull. <BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BR>
I thought it was funny too. That's why I wrote it :)<BR>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Hunting List Updated 11/22/02
Date: 25 Nov 2002 07:37:44 -0800 (PST)
--0-1839435607-1038238664=:46267
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:Oops...that should read "leading out of economic recessionary periods" not "leading out of economic reversionary periods"----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Sunday, November 24, 2002 10:49 AMSubject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Hunting List Updated 11/22/02
Hi All, I've uploaded the latest CANSLIM Hunting list to: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting112202.xls ( a bit slow to load)http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting112202.zip ( a zipped version for download)*Please note that these spreadsheets were prepared with Excel 2000 for Windows. If you have older versions of Excel or use a Mac version, you will not be able to view them properly. If you do not have Excel, see http://office.microsoft.com/downloads/2000/xlviewer.aspx for a free viewer. In order to make it to the list, the stock had to have a forward growth rate of at least 15%, Price at least 6, Avg Daily Vol at least 30K, RS at least 60, no more than 15% below the 50 day SMA, and at or above the 200 day SMA. This is what I consider to be "bare bones" requirements for CANSLIM quality stocks. (Note that if you follow stricter CANSLIM guidelines, you can use the autofilter feature in each column and view only Price>=$12 (or 15) and AvgVol>=100000.) Other information included is industry name (slightly different than DGO's names, but close enough!), price, avg vol, and links to graphs and due diligence sites on the internet. This month I've also added links to Mike's and (now my!) cwhcharts for each stock which displays U/D volume, RS Rank, Comparative RS vs. SPX and more. I've also added a couple of additional columns as an outgrowth of my recent discussion with Eric J regarding relative outperformance of certain stocks and strength of potential and current leader stocks. You'll find a column for the RS Line since the 10/10 market low. If the RS Line (RS compared to S&P500) has been going up since that date (indicating outperformance relative to the market), it is indicated with a "+". I've also included a column to show the % off the 52 week high for those that keep their eye focused on such things. Also note that there are 4 sheets in the workbook, though this is easy to overlook. The first sheet has the listed stocks, but others include a list of stocks dropped from the list, a summary of stocks by sector, and a sheet with misc. links for free info on the web. If you'd like to look at last month's hunting list, you will find it at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting101802.xls orhttp://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting101802.zip This month there are 476 names, up a whopping 105 names from the list I posted last month just after the FTD. This month, 125 names fell from the list, 230 new names came on board and 246 names are repeats. Though rotation on the list is still fairly severe, the large number of repeats does show some marked improvement over what I've seen in the last year. It's an encouraging sign that money seems to continue to flow out of defensive names such as REITS, Mining and Healthcare (hospitals/HMO's) and into growth areas such as Healthcare equipment/instruments and Business Sevices. Of particular note this month is the high representation of media stocks. As a sign of *economic* strength (though not necessarily market strength), this is very important. 19 names show on the list and represent both print and broadcast media. AOL also announced recently that they see a strengthening demand for advertising. This is an important sign, because media is typically one of the strong sectors leading out of economic reversionary periods. As the market is a discounting mechanism, this then bodes well. Other areas with good representation are telecom (select cellular and equipment companies), computer services and business services. I don't see it as particularly troubling that more retailers don't show on the list. The consumer stocks have dominated over the past 20 (or so) years and I don't think it would be out of the question there would be a substantial secular shift to capital goods and other quasi-cyclical sectors in the future. Tech supports many industries and great growth stocks don't necessarily have to come from consumer related businesses (though it is true many growth companies do typically come from innovative retailers.) It's also interesting to me that Biotech is well represented on this month's list with 14 names. While this is a high-risk sector, it is encouraging to see institutional money flow to it. Many believe biotech will be the most important growth industry going forward. I am also not troubled by the flow of money *out* of homebuilders and related stocks. Again, the market is a discounting mechanism. That means that if money is flowing out of this sector, the growth in housing, etc.will decline. People may not be building new houses at a pace equal to the last 10-15 years in the future, but it's a fallacy to conclude that the consumer will no longer be healthy and spend money. The laborers and supporting businesses will shift to other industries as a result in the same way that they did when the oil industry collapsed in the early '80's. Take a trip to Houston today and you'll find it a far different city than it was at that time--still a lot of oil money, but a far more diverse group of businesses than 20 years ago. With a follow-through day under our belts, decent (though certainly not perfect, and still suspect) action in recent breakouts and a list of hunting candidates composed of less defensive names and more fully populated with innovative companies, it's an encouraging sign that we may be in for an intermediate term rally of some consequence. It's still a jungle out there....be sure to honor all your buy *and* sell rules!! One last note...I'm aware that there are many who will not use a list stocks such as this (and rightfully so), but it's always difficult to tell if the spreadsheet is useful to enough people on the CANSLIM list to continue to spend the time it takes to prepare each month. As there is no way to monitor the number of downloads, I'll need some individual feedback to gauge the value to the list. Tom Worley has often expressed the same sentiment from time to time given the amount of effort he puts into his weekly Weekend Weeview, so I am following his lead to get a pulse point. Happy Hunting,Katherine
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, November 24, 2002 10:49 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Hunting List Updated 11/22/02</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I've uploaded the latest CANSLIM Hunting list to:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://wallstreet-llc.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting112202.xls">http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting112202.xls</A> ( a bit slow to load)</DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://wallstreet-llc.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting112202.zip">http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting112202.zip</A> ( a zipped version for download)</DIV>
<DIV>*Please note that these spreadsheets were prepared with Excel 2000 for Windows. If you have older versions of Excel or use a Mac version, you will not be able to view them properly. If you do not have Excel, see <A href="http://office.microsoft.com/downloads/2000/xlviewer.aspx">http://office.microsoft.com/downloads/2000/xlviewer.aspx</A> for a free viewer.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>In order to make it to the list, the stock had to have a forward growth rate of at least 15%, Price at least 6, Avg Daily Vol at least 30K, RS at least 60, no more than 15% below the 50 day SMA, and at or above the 200 day SMA. This is what I consider to be "bare bones" requirements for CANSLIM quality stocks. (Note that if you follow stricter CANSLIM guidelines, you can use the autofilter feature in each column and view only Price>=$12 (or 15) and AvgVol>=100000.) Other information included is industry name (slightly different than DGO's names, but close enough!), price, avg vol, and links to graphs and due diligence sites on the internet. This month I've also added links to Mike's and (now my!) cwhcharts for each stock which displays U/D volume, RS Rank, Comparative RS vs. SPX and more. I've also added a couple of additional columns as an outgrowth of my recent discussion with Eric J regarding relative outperformance of certain stocks and strength of potential and current leader stocks. You'll find a column for the RS Line since the 10/10 market low. If the RS Line (RS compared to S&P500) has been going up since that date (indicating outperformance relative to the market), it is indicated with a "+". I've also included a column to show the % off the 52 week high for those that keep their eye focused on such things. Also note that there are 4 sheets in the workbook, though this is easy to overlook. The first sheet has the listed stocks, but others include a list of stocks dropped from the list, a summary of stocks by sector, and a sheet with misc. links for free info on the web.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If you'd like to look at last month's hunting list, you will find it at:</DIV>
<DIV>This month there are 476 names, up a whopping 105 names from the list I posted last month just after the FTD. This month, 125 names fell from the list, 230 new names came on board and 246 names are repeats. Though rotation on the list is still fairly severe, the large number of repeats does show some marked improvement over what I've seen in the last year. It's an encouraging sign that money seems to continue to flow out of defensive names such as REITS, Mining and Healthcare (hospitals/HMO's) and into growth areas such as Healthcare equipment/instruments and Business Sevices. Of particular note this month is the high representation of media stocks. As a sign of *economic* strength (though not necessarily market strength), this is very important. 19 names show on the list and represent both print and broadcast media. AOL also announced recently that they see a strengthening demand for advertising. This is an important sign, because media is typically one of the strong sectors leading out of economic reversionary periods. As the market is a discounting mechanism, this then bodes well. Other areas with good representation are telecom (select cellular and equipment companies), computer services and business services. I don't see it as particularly troubling that more retailers don't show on the list. The consumer stocks have dominated over the past 20 (or so) years and I don't think it would be out of the question there would be a substantial secular shift to capital goods and other quasi-cyclical sectors in the future. Tech supports many industries and great growth stocks don't necessarily have to come from consumer related businesses (though it is true many growth companies do typically come from innovative retailers.) It's also interesting to me that Biotech is well represented on this month's list with 14 names. While this is a high-risk sector, it is encouraging to see institutional money flow to it. Many believe biotech will be the most important growth industry going forward. I am also not troubled by the flow of money *out* of homebuilders and related stocks. Again, the market is a discounting mechanism. That means that if money is flowing out of this sector, the growth in housing, etc.will decline. People may not be building new houses at a pace equal to the last 10-15 years in the future, but it's a fallacy to conclude that the consumer will no longer be healthy and spend money. The laborers and supporting businesses will shift to other industries as a result in the same way that they did when the oil industry collapsed in the early '80's. Take a trip to Houston today and you'll find it a far different city than it was at that time--still a lot of oil money, but a far more diverse group of businesses than 20 years ago.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>With a follow-through day under our belts, decent (though certainly not perfect, and still suspect) action in recent breakouts and a list of hunting candidates composed of less defensive names and more fully populated with innovative companies, it's an encouraging sign that we may be in for an intermediate term rally of some consequence. It's still a jungle out there....be sure to honor all your buy *and* sell rules!!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>One last note...I'm aware that there are many who will not use a list stocks such as this (and rightfully so), but it's always difficult to tell if the spreadsheet is useful to enough people on the CANSLIM list to continue to spend the time it takes to prepare each month. As there is no way to monitor the number of downloads, I'll need some individual feedback to gauge the value to the list. Tom Worley has often expressed the same sentiment from time to time given the amount of effort he puts into his weekly Weekend Weeview, so I am following his lead to get a pulse point.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1>Do you Yahoo!?<br>
<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Mail Plus</a> - Powerful. Affordable. <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/mail/mailsig/*http://mailplus.yahoo.com">Sign up now</a>
Yeah, I noticed that a week or so ago. I've been fully invested since the
recent bottom in ETFs myself. I got shaken out last week and am trying to
find something that is not extended to back get into. I got some PECS today
and am watching a few more. I think it is the right move but I don't know
any retail traders who expect this to be more than a quick trade. The
internals look to me like real buying at this level but no one will believe
me :)
I see you look for stocks in the cup to buy. You may find these data sets
that I compile useful: <A HREF="http://groups.msn.com/InvestmentDataAnalysis/Documents/industry.xls">Industries</A>, <A HREF="http://groups.msn.com/InvestmentDataAnalysis/Documents/ind_cmp.xls">Companies within Industries</A>, and <A HREF="http://groups.msn.com/InvestmentDataAnalysis/Documents/MoneyFlow.xls">
MoneyFlow</A>. These files provide industry strength, the companies within the
industries ranked by price strength, and my version on when the money is
flowing. There is a description file at the site or I will explain anything
that is not obvious.
Andy
In a message dated 11/25/2002 7:36:03 AM Central Standard Time,
stkguru@bellsouth.net writes:
> Andy, some of us are voting with real money. And I would have to rate myself
> bullish (don't know about the go-go, tho) as I am not only fully invested
> but on margin, and looking to buy one more stock which will take me to max
Yeah, I noticed that a week or so ago. I've been fully invested since the recent bottom in ETFs myself. I got shaken out last week and am trying to find something that is not extended to back get into. I got some PECS today and am watching a few more. I think it is the right move but I don't know any retail traders who expect this to be more than a quick trade. The internals look to me like real buying at this level but no one will believe me :)<BR>
<BR>
I see you look for stocks in the cup to buy. You may find these data sets that I compile useful: <A HREF="http://groups.msn.com/InvestmentDataAnalysis/Documents/industry.xls">Industries</A>, <A HREF="http://groups.msn.com/InvestmentDataAnalysis/Documents/ind_cmp.xls">Companies within Industries</A>, and <A HREF="http://groups.msn.com/InvestmentDataAnalysis/Documents/MoneyFlow.xls">MoneyFlow</A>. These files provide industry strength, the companies within the industries ranked by price strength, and my version on when the money is flowing. There is a description file at the site or I will explain anything that is not obvious.<BR>
<BR>
Andy<BR>
<BR>
In a message dated 11/25/2002 7:36:03 AM Central Standard Time, stkguru@bellsouth.net writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">Andy, some of us are voting with real money. And I would have to rate myself bullish (don't know about the go-go, tho) as I am not only fully invested but on margin, and looking to buy one more stock which will take me to max margin.</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
How long do you spend a day on this? Is this your occupation?also do you find you get info overload? (that's the way I feel right now)
Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:
v\:* { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML)}o\:* { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML)}w\:* { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML)}.shape { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML)}st1\:*{behavior:url(#default#ieooui) }Hi Curt, I'm of a mind that simple is better when it comes to reading charts, and as with most things it just takes practice to become proficient, just as you suggested. I still "practice" every day. One of the things I like so much about the CANSLIM list is that people will often bring up stocks that I personally have glossed over, but I use their mention of a stock to practice reading the chart more closely. As chart reading is such a visual process, I think anything that helps interpret the price/volume action is helpful. I'm fairly purist, and stick to the simplest of indicators, but I find that the pattern of the Up/Down volume helps summarize the recent action. As this is a simple ratio of volume on up days to volume on down days over the last 50 days, it's not a perfect indicator, but it helps "see" the P/V action a little differently. I've used the IWM ETF as a proxy for the Russell 2000 so that you can see what I mean. See it at:http://Wallstreet-LLC.com/canslim/IWM112202.JPG Another tool I use extensively and that I like very much is Bill Lee's Excel spreadsheet. It's designed to help you read the market, but can also be used to "read" any individual stock. Each accumulation and distribution day is marked with a color and is *very* easy to see patterns of accumulation and distribution (yellow/orange/red for distribution, green for accumulation). See the last year of the NASDAQ and you can see what I mean....plenty of red most of the year, but plenty of green while the Naz built the right side of the cup. See a sample at:http://Wallstreet-LLC.com/canslim/NASDAQ112202.JPG. Bill's product is a moderately priced shareware program and I have no business affiliation with him....just a happy customer. Read more about his tool at http://www.market-tester.com Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Curt Corley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 8:30 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] Volume and CWH (was M)
Katherine,
Thanks for your input. Your help is invaluable. I looked at the indices in TC2000 with MoneyStream and Time Segmented Volume. I looked at the NASDAQ, S&P-500, and Russell 2000. HereÆs what I found on all 3 charts.
CMS:
MoneyStream stayed above itÆs linear regression line on the left side of the cup, on the right side of the cup, and during the BO. However, it stayed below the linear regression line along the bottom of the cup and during the handle formation.
TSV:
TSV stayed mainly above the center line during the left-side of the cup. Toward the bottom of the cup, TSV plunged way below the zero line. On the right side of the cup, TSV shot high above the center line again. During the handle formation and the BO, TSV dipped down and back up again.
I guess this is supposed to tell me that volume supported the price action because there were no divergences. Since you mentioned Accumulation/Distribution, I probably should have looked at On Balance Volume and/or Balance of Power. However, I havenÆt had much success with those indicators in the past.
IÆm trying to become more proficient at chart reading, and youÆre certainly helping a great deal along with other members of this list. Once again, thank you very much.
Cheers,
Curt
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 10:58 PM
Hi Curt,
I don't think when you're looking at patterns on major indexes such as the NASDAQ that the pattern of volume would be used in the same way that it is on an individual stock. My take on it is simply that an index represents a huge number of individual stocks, and while the general price pattern will indicate a reversal of a trend or a general shift in psychology and pattern of buying and selling in the market, the volume doesn't really tell you the same story as it does in an individual stock. In other words, I think that it's more important to look for a pattern of accumulation outpacing distribution (up days on higher volume than the previous day vs. down days on higher volume), than it is to look for the "bathtub" volume pattern that one would use on an individual stock.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 6:27 PM
IÆm glad you mentioned the General Markets & Sectors commentary in todayÆs IBD. I looked at the charts, and they did not appear to have rising volume on the sides of the cups. As a matter of fact, the heaviest volume days were at the very bottom of the cup. I donÆt think the indices have shown great cwh characteristics. However, IÆm a novice at this stuff, so I would appreciate any criticism or validation of my view.
Curt
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2002 3:11 PM
Speaking of handles- what are peoples' thoughts on WON's comment from this morning about the NASDAQ forming a cup and handle? Volume in the handle seems a bit "imperfect" but I don't want to be the one to rain on the parade!
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now
--0-1303012457-1038322757=:49501
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
<P>i'VE BEEN READING YOUR LATEST POSTINGS.
<P>How long do you spend a day on this? Is this your occupation?also do you find you get info overload? (that's the way I feel right now)
<DIV>I'm of a mind that simple is better when it comes to reading charts, and as with most things it just takes practice to become proficient, just as you suggested. I still "practice" every day. One of the things I like so much about the CANSLIM list is that people will often bring up stocks that I personally have glossed over, but I use their mention of a stock to practice reading the chart more closely. As chart reading is such a visual process, I think anything that helps interpret the price/volume action is helpful. I'm fairly purist, and stick to the simplest of indicators, but I find that the pattern of the Up/Down volume helps summarize the recent action. As this is a simple ratio of volume on up days to volume on down days over the last 50 days, it's not a perfect indicator, but it helps "see" the P/V action a little differently.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I've used the IWM ETF as a proxy for the Russell 2000 so that you can see what I mean. See it at:</DIV>
<DIV>Another tool I use extensively and that I like very much is Bill Lee's Excel spreadsheet. It's designed to help you read the market, but can also be used to "read" any individual stock. Each accumulation and distribution day is marked with a color and is *very* easy to see patterns of accumulation and distribution (yellow/orange/red for distribution, green for accumulation). See the last year of the NASDAQ and you can see what I mean....plenty of red most of the year, but plenty of green while the Naz built the right side of the cup. See a sample at:</DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://wallstreet-llc.com/canslim/NASDAQ112202.JPG">http://Wallstreet-LLC.com/canslim/NASDAQ112202.JPG</A>. Bill's product is a moderately priced shareware program and I have no business affiliation with him....just a happy customer. Read more about his tool at <A href="http://www.market-tester.com/">http://www.market-tester.com</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=cjcorley@hiwaay.net href="mailto:cjcorley@hiwaay.net">Curt Corley</A> </DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Thanks for your input.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Your help is invaluable.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I looked at the indices in TC2000 with <SPAN class=SpellE>MoneyStream</SPAN> and Time Segmented Volume.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I looked at the NASDAQ, S&P-500, and Russell 2000.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>HereÆs what I found on all 3 charts.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=SpellE><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">MoneyStream</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> stayed above <SPAN class=GramE>itÆs</SPAN> linear regression line on the left side of the cup, on the right side of the cup, and during the BO.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>However, it stayed below the linear regression line along the bottom of the cup and during the handle formation.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">TSV stayed mainly above the center line during the left-side of the cup.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Toward the bottom of the cup, TSV plunged way below the zero line. <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>On the right side of the cup, TSV shot high above the center line again.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>During the handle formation and the BO, TSV dipped down and back up again.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I guess this is supposed to tell me that volume supported the price action because there were no divergences.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Since you mentioned Accumulation/Distribution, I probably should have looked at On Balance Volume and/or Balance of Power.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>However, I havenÆt had much success with those indicators in the past.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">IÆm trying to become more proficient at chart reading, and youÆre certainly helping a great deal along with other members of this list.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Once again, thank you very much.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">I don't think when you're looking at patterns on major indexes such as the NASDAQ that the pattern of volume would be used in the same way that it is on an individual stock. My take on it is simply that an index represents a huge number of individual stocks, and while the general price pattern will indicate a reversal of a trend or a general shift in psychology and pattern of buying and selling in the market, the volume doesn't really tell you the same story as it does in an individual stock. In other words, I think that it's more important to look for a pattern of accumulation outpacing distribution (up days on higher volume than the previous day vs. down days on higher volume), than it is to look for the "bathtub" volume pattern that one would use on an individual stock.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">IÆm glad you mentioned the General Markets & Sectors commentary in todayÆs IBD.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I looked at the charts, and they did not appear to have rising volume on the sides of the cups.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>As a matter of fact, the heaviest volume days were at the very bottom of the cup.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I donÆt think the indices have shown great cwh characteristics.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>However, IÆm a novice at this stuff, so I would appreciate any criticism or validation of my view.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=Arial color=blue size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Speaking of handles- what are peoples' thoughts on WON's comment from this morning about the NASDAQ forming a cup and handle? Volume in the handle seems a bit "imperfect" but I don't want to be the one to rain on the parade!</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
Good luck. Sounds like you are on to something. My data is geared towards CANSLIM but works well with industry/sector ETFs and finding shorts. I only include stocks over $5 so it will not help some methodologies.<BR>
<BR>
Andy<BR>
<BR>
In a message dated 11/28/2002 10:02:52 PM Central Standard Time, stkguru@bellsouth.net writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">Thanks, Andy, I took a look at them, but don't think they would be of help to me as I don't see the stocks I already own or favor. As long as my methodology continues to work, and it's working fabulously this year despite a lack of time, I don't intend to change anything I do now. Putting my entire margin account, and a sizable piece of my VR Fund, into a single sector is not something I did lightly, and am glad it is working out so well and so quickly, considering I made the move with an 18 month horizon. Simply put, industry strength, group RS, and other similar factors were not even considered when I did this.<BR>
Definately agree shorting isn't the best play now.
In a message dated 11/29/2002 7:18:51 AM Central Standard Time,
stkguru@bellsouth.net writes:
> I have yet to find a short where I have confidence in doubling my money, and
> the indexes appear to be clearing up the mystery of the double bottom /
> head & shoulders / c&h patterns in favor of the double bottom, so shorting
> is not even a consideration for me right now.
--part1_165.1756b9a7.2b18f099_boundary
Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Definately agree shorting isn't the best play now. <BR>
<BR>
In a message dated 11/29/2002 7:18:51 AM Central Standard Time, stkguru@bellsouth.net writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">I have yet to find a short where I have confidence in doubling my money, and the indexes appear to be clearing up the mystery of the double bottom / head & shoulders / c&h patterns in favor of the double bottom, so shorting is not even a consideration for me right now.</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
