Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives...
Date: 03 Mar 2002 08:00:00 -0700
From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message.
Here are the two ways to access the archives:
1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to:
Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ volume extremely high today ...
Date: 04 Mar 2002 08:17:33 -0800
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I guess this will be the official 6th day follow-through on te NAZ. Very heavy volume for this time of day.
Now all that remains is to find some quality companies moving up - I am seeing a definite shift away from microcaps (except BEL, which moves up vertically every single day) and into big caps. My problem is that I am having trouble finding any growing big caps whose businesses aren't performing poorly. My only slighly larger company purchase last week was ELON - i like the 150% growth in this market. Any great ideas out there?
Ian
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I like the looks of DRS' cup w/ handle. 88 94 ABB. Good action in LLL, ATK, and others in group, 4 up weeks on higher volume vs. 1 down week in base, good support on daily price volume, with positive spikes on 12/14, 1/16, 3/5. Thoughts?
Eric
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<P>I like the looks of DRS' cup w/ handle. 88 94 ABB. Good action in LLL, ATK, and others in group, 4 up weeks on higher volume vs. 1 down week in base, good support on daily price volume, with positive spikes on 12/14, 1/16, 3/5. Thoughts?</P>
<P>Eric</P><p><br><hr size=1><b>Do You Yahoo!?</b><br>
Did you ever get a reply from Quotes Plus on the earnings estimate issue? I not a Quotes Plus subscriber but I would like to know how they responded to your question. <BR>
> It's difficult to do justice to the VV tool in a few paragraphs, but I will try and address your question in a way that shows how VV is different from tools such as QP2 (and tools built on its engine and/or MarketGuide fundamental data elements) and/or other tools that incorporate varying
degrees of technical analysis.
>
> It is true the VV does not have the raw historical fundamental data and it is for this and a couple of other reasons that I supplement it with DGO. Instead of providing the raw numbers, VV devotes its engine to looking for relationships between variables. The foundational parameters are built
on long-standing stock-valuation techniques in which the value of a stock is determined by the present value of a future earnings stream given a particular growth rate in future earnings and a given interest and inflation rate. This valuation is then combined with the past profitability
characteristics of the company--essentially the return on total capital employed. The final valuation is then compared to present price action and the expected return on the stock over time is compared to the return on a AAA bond. While the specifics are proprietary (just as are the specifics of
DGO's A/D, GRS, SMR, etc.), the formulations are discussed in the manual. In short, this allows you to compare any stock in the database against another to determine the relative value (RV) of the stock. In addition to the RV, there is also a relative safety (RS) factor which takes not only the
traditional measure of volatility (beta--a price based measure) but also the past fundamental volatility/safety of the stock. For example, D/E ratio, longevity of the business, persistence of profitability and growth in earnings, etc. etc. All of these factors are once again combined so that any
one stock can be compared against another. Essentially, VV pares down all the raw past fundamental data and the future expected fundamentals into a couple of numbers for you. When I look at a stream of raw fundamentals, this is what I'm doing mentally...assessing growth patterns, repeatability,
etc. So, no, you could not do a search on QoQ growth rates of x in the same way you can in QP2. From a technical perspective, there is once again a summary technical price indicator called relative timing (RT) which is difficult to describe without a white paper. But, it essentially takes the
price movement over the last 13 weeks and the velocity of the price movement in more recent periods and then normalizes it for values between 0 and 2. Once again, this allows comparison of any one stock against another. (There are many more parameters, but these are the most important). From a
CANSLIM perspective, the parameter most important is the projected forward growth rate of the company. Without a doubt, this one factor (based on forward EPS estimates, also given) is the fastest way to zoom in on CANSLIM quality companies and as far as I've been able to determine, no other
Nice summary of VV, Katherine! I'll chime in here and say that I absolutely
love VectorVest, for all the reasons she outlined. The ability to graph the
different parameters over time is extremely useful. While the specifics of
fundy performances are not available with the system, the ability to compare
stocks, number to number, over a variety of parameters allows one to quickly
reduce 7500+ stocks to the issues most worth investigating further. It is
also completely flexible so that you can define the variables you choose to
develop strategies specific to your tastes.
While their technical module may or may not be helpful for CANSLIM methods, I
find it to be indispensable for other types of trading I do. I was a big fan
of VectorVest before I ever ran across Katherine, but she has taken its use
to a whole different level from anything I had seen before. That's actually
what I like best of all about VV. It can be tailored to suit your style, and
there's no end to the variables you can tinker with and backtest. It is as
simple or sophisticated a tool as you choose to make it, although
understanding the best use of it can take a little while.
Enough said. I'll go back to lurking now.
Robert W. Elmer
Coldwell Banker First Shasta
2837 Bechelli Ln.
Redding, CA 96002
RWElmer@aol.com
221-9556 or 1-800-348-7939 ext.156
www.robertelmer.com
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Hello All,
<BR>
<BR>Nice summary of VV, Katherine! I'll chime in here and say that I absolutely love VectorVest, for all the reasons she outlined. The ability to graph the different parameters over time is extremely useful. While the specifics of fundy performances are not available with the system, the ability to compare stocks, number to number, over a variety of parameters allows one to quickly reduce 7500+ stocks to the issues most worth investigating further. It is also completely flexible so that you can define the variables you choose to develop strategies specific to your tastes.
<BR>
<BR>While their technical module may or may not be helpful for CANSLIM methods, I find it to be indispensable for other types of trading I do. I was a big fan of VectorVest before I ever ran across Katherine, but she has taken its use to a whole different level from anything I had seen before. That's actually what I like best of all about VV. It can be tailored to suit your style, and there's no end to the variables you can tinker with and backtest. It is as simple or sophisticated a tool as you choose to make it, although understanding the best use of it can take a little while.
Thanks for the details, that would be a little expensive for my limited account size, I
think QP will have to suffice (its actually a pretty good program).
If you don't mind one more question, just briefly why did you say a day or two ago
that you thought UOPX was not a suitable Canslim buy candidate?
My limited examination of the fundamentals didn't turn up any obvious problems,
and technically I thought it looked ok. As I mentioned last week, I had questions
about its longer term potential, but short term could not see anything wrong.
On 9 Mar 2002 at 22:07, Katherine Malm wrote:
> Hi Patrick,
>
> For the VV ProGraphics which I use and described in my message to Warren, there is no initial cost. There is a monthly subscription fee that is all inclusive. No additional fees for data feeds, etc, as everything you need is downloaded to your PC. (There is also an online version, but I prefer
the PC based product. I have access to both for my monthly fee) $49/month for daily updates, $39/month for weekly updates. (discounts for yearly subscriptions). Basic graphing capabilities including price/volume, moving averages, graphing all parameters over time, etc. is inclusive.
(http://www.vectorvest.com/VVPGDetail2.htm) My extended database has data back to '95.
>
> The optional super-souped-up technical add-on (ProTrader) has a one time charge (I think it's about $295) but there are no fees after that, as all the data is pulled from ProGraphics. (http://www.vectorvest.com/VVPTDetail2.htm) My understanding is that those who are in love with TC2000,
MetaStock, etc. will find ProTrader somewhat lacking. It still has some pretty incredible things....but technicians-at-heart love what they love.
>
> No hidden charges...never any upgrade fees (I've been using it since early '98)... great technical support by phone and/or email.
>
> You can order a 5 week trial for $9.95. (I would be remiss not to mention that I get credit for referrals but you have to mention me by name when you order) End of pitch...no connection to VV, just a very happy long term user who's learned to make the product sing.
>
> As a CANSLIMer, I think that you could use VV and then supplement it with free fundamental resources on the web. But, if you're a fundamental junkie, then I think it is useful to supplement it with something like QP2 (or its derivative products) or DGO. Since I don't care about *mining* on raw
fundamentals, I think DGO is the better option, as all the proprietary IBD indicators are readily available.
>
> Katherine
>
> PS There are also some articles at the VV site which describe in greater detail some of what I wrote about in my original note to Warren. http://www.vectorvest.com/specialreports.htm
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Patrick Wahl
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Saturday, March 09, 2002 9:26 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VectorVest fundies
>
>
> What does it cost - initially and per month?
>
> On 9 Mar 2002 at 19:01, Katherine Malm wrote:
>
> > Hi Warren,
> >
> > It's difficult to do justice to the VV tool in a few paragraphs, but I will try and address your question in a way that shows how VV is different from tools such as QP2 (and tools built on its engine and/or MarketGuide fundamental data elements) and/or other tools that incorporate varying
> degrees of technical analysis.
> >
> > It is true the VV does not have the raw historical fundamental data and it is for this and a couple of other reasons that I supplement it with DGO. Instead of providing the raw numbers, VV devotes its engine to looking for relationships between variables. The foundational parameters are
built
> on long-standing stock-valuation techniques in which the value of a stock is determined by the present value of a future earnings stream given a particular growth rate in future earnings and a given interest and inflation rate. This valuation is then combined with the past profitability
> characteristics of the company--essentially the return on total capital employed. The final valuation is then compared to present price action and the expected return on the stock over time is compared to the return on a AAA bond. While the specifics are proprietary (just as are the specifics
of
> DGO's A/D, GRS, SMR, etc.), the formulations are discussed in the manual. In short, this allows you to compare any stock in the database against another to determine the relative value (RV) of the stock. In addition to the RV, there is also a relative safety (RS) factor which takes not only
the
> traditional measure of volatility (beta--a price based measure) but also the past fundamental volatility/safety of the stock. For example, D/E ratio, longevity of the business, persistence of profitability and growth in earnings, etc. etc. All of these factors are once again combined so that
any
> one stock can be compared against another. Essentially, VV pares down all the raw past fundamental data and the future expected fundamentals into a couple of numbers for you. When I look at a stream of raw fundamentals, this is what I'm doing mentally...assessing growth patterns,
repeatability,
> etc. So, no, you could not do a search on QoQ growth rates of x in the same way you can in QP2. From a technical perspective, there is once again a summary technical price indicator called relative timing (RT) which is difficult to describe without a white paper. But, it essentially takes the
> price movement over the last 13 weeks and the velocity of the price movement in more recent periods and then normalizes it for values between 0 and 2. Once again, this allows comparison of any one stock against another. (There are many more parameters, but these are the most important). From
a
> CANSLIM perspective, the parameter most important is the projected forward growth rate of the company. Without a doubt, this one factor (based on forward EPS estimates, also given) is the fastest way to zoom in on CANSLIM quality companies and as far as I've been able to determine, no other
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pick list game (well my own)
Date: 11 Mar 2002 22:42:59 EST
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I like this idea...many of the stocks on the list do not have the criteria
that I am looking for.........janis...
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><BODY BGCOLOR="#ffffff"><FONT style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=2>I like this idea...many of the stocks on the list do not have the criteria that I am looking for.........janis...</FONT></HTML>
Often times, you will see that activity in microcaps as the market maker takes out stops set at $6.99 and buys some shares. You will frequently see it right before a volume surge - they see some volume bids coming in, and quickly drop the price in order to accumulate some inventory by taking out stop-loss orders.
Last week, I was trying to buy shares in a penny stock (my first in years, but all the CANSLIM characteristics save the low price). The bid-ask was 0.96 x 0.99. I but in an offer to buy another 6000 shares at 0.99. I was watching a streamer and noticed that 40000 shares traded at or below 0.99, so I assumed that my order was filled. At the end of the day the price was 1.10, so I looked at my account and saw that I was NOT filled! The moral is that you are subject to some nasty (unethical?) trading practices as liquidity and price get low. The stock is at 1.40 today, 4 trading days later :(
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Rob Miller
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, March 12, 2002 7:20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Microcap Question
Tom, I'm hoping you can answer this question for me since microcaps are your main interest. I've not dealt with them much in the past. I've been following a few microcaps (<$80 million market cap) and I'm confused about the movements in the bid/ask prices. Assume the spread is 7 X 7.15 with most trades, small lots, split evenly between those hitting the bid and those taking the ask. However, the action is slow. Then, the bid suddenly drops to 6.90, 6.85, 6.80, 6.75. Several trades go off at 6.75 over just a few seconds, then the bid jumps back up to 7.00, at which point the trading becomes slow again. The ask never changes. In some cases, trades go off below the bid price.
I can understand when someone withdraws their bid causing the bid to drop, but it seems strange that several trades go off at what appears to be far below the prevailing market price. No trades, bid drops for a few seconds, a few quick trades, then bid goes back up. What causes this? It seems to scripted to be accidental.
Thanks,
Rob
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<TD vAlign=top width="96%"><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2><b>Its Premier Financial Division a branch of Globalink Securities, offers many personal and professional financial services. Globalink Securities is a full service on-line trading firm</b>.<BR><BR></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD vAlign=top width="4%"><LI></LI></TD>
<TD vAlign=top width="96%"><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2><b>The Company's Premier Property Management division offers complete personal and professional real estate services, and has strategic relationships in place with over 400 lenders.</b><BR><BR></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD vAlign=top width="4%"><LI></LI></TD>
<TD vAlign=top width="96%"><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=2><b>Its Premier Sports Management division is licensed via the NFLPA and NBPA to be contract advisors for each respective league. Services include: Contract Negotiations-which includes base, incentives, and bonus, Endorsement & Personal appearance negotiation, and Financial planning & counseling services.</b><BR><BR></FONT></TD
<FONT color=#000000 face=verdana size=2><FONT color="#0922a0" size="2"><b>Premier Holdings Group Inc.</b></FONT><P>
Premier Holdings Group Inc. (OTC: PHGI) provides financial planning, property acquisition and management, and sports management services.<p>
Premier Holdings Group Inc. (OTC: PHGI) is currently engaged in a number of diverse strategies designed to maximize shareholder value. With three distinct operating divisions, the Company is developing different ways of generating revenue and increasing market share.<p>
<b>Financial Services Division</b><p>
The Company's Premier Financial division is a branch of Globalink Securities, offering many personal and professional financial services. Globalink Securities is a full service on-line trading firm.<p>
Premier Financial, in cooperation with Marine Midland Bank, is offering Brokerage Access Accounts. These accounts include a broad selection of investment choices including over 4,000 mutual funds, unlimited check writing and access to money market funds. Accounts are protected up to $100,000 by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation and offer $99.5 million in excess coverage.<p>
The mission of Premier Financial is to provide customers with the finest financial services possible by assisting them in improving their portfolios, business endeavors and retirement plans.<p>
<b>Property Management Services</b><p>
The Premier Property Management division offers complete personal and professional real estate services, and has strategic relationships in place with over 400 lenders.<p>
This division recently announced that it will facilitate mortgages via Stockton, Turner LLC. The Company has set a goal to close up to 4% of Stockton, Turner residential mortgages. During fiscal year 2000, Stockton Turner closed over $160 million in residential mortgage loans, which included VA & FHA financing.<p>
<b>Premier Sports Management</b><p>
The co-managers of Premier Sports are licensed via the NFLPA and NBPA to be contract advisors for each respective league. Some of the services offered include, but are not limited to:<p>
<ul>
<li><b>Contract Negotiations</b> - which includes base, incentives, and bonus
<li>Providing <b>sports psychologists, dietary specialists, and health specialists</b> to enhance the players' performance
<li>Financial planning & counseling services
<li><b>Endorsement</b> & Personal appearance negotiation
<DIV align=center>**IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER**</DIV></FONT><BR><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=1>Stockscape Technologies, Inc. (SS) Disclaimer: Please be aware that SS is a news service and NOT an investment advisory service; it is advised that you consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. This information comprises a paid advertising supplement for which SS was compensated. In the case of Premier Holdings Group Inc., SS received payment of 300,000 free trading shares. This publication does not provide an analysis of a company's financial position and the information herein should NOT be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities. The information herein is taken form sources thought to be accurate, but there is no guarantee. All due diligence should be done by the reader or their financial advisor. Investing in securities is speculative and carries risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
<p></FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD></TD>
</TR></TBODY></TABLE><font face="arial,helvetica, sans-serif" size=1>This is a paid advertisement on behalf of our client Perfect Circle Media. The material contained in this report is being furnished solely for informational purposes. This is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and/or obtain professional advice, prior to making any investment decision. The information contained herein is based on sources, which Stockscape believes to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate, and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The statements and opinions contained herein are not the statements and opinions of MarketConnoisseur Report, and MarketConnoisseur Report disclaims any liability for or arising from such statements and opinions.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<table border=0 width=600><tr><td><br><font size="2" face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">We currently have your email address as : canslim-gooutt@lists.xmission.com<br>
To unsubscribe, simply click on the following link below, or just reply to this email with a subject of "REMOVE".<br>
Good Morning everyone. I am a retired insurance broker living in Houston
Texas and have actively managed my investments since 1997. I have founded two
investment clubs, one for family and friends, and one for a few of my retired
cronies. Like everyone else I did quite well in 1999. So well in fact that I
moved half of my investments into bonds in February 2000, just 30 days before
the bear market began. Thanks to Bill O'Neil and his advise not to fight the
market, I was in cash by May of 2000 and have just been ducking in and out of
the market since then.
I subscribe to Daily Graphs and could not do without it. For my money it is
the best screening tool available. I do not normally consider a stock with
less than 500,000 shares traded daily in order to reduce some of the
volatility. I depend heavily on the EPS and SMR ratings as indicators of
financial health. As long as the market is down, but appears to be on the up
turn, I put less weight on Relative Strength, Industry Relative Strength, and
the Accumulation/Distribution ratings. Instead, I am looking for great
companies that will lead the bull market. I think those leaders will come
from the financial group simply because money, as a commodity, is cheap and
can be resold at a very high markup.
I have been lurking for a few days and have enjoyed the calm, business like
tenor or your postings.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Good Morning everyone. I am a retired insurance broker living in Houston Texas and have actively managed my investments since 1997. I have founded two investment clubs, one for family and friends, and one for a few of my retired cronies. Like everyone else I did quite well in 1999. So well in fact that I moved half of my investments into bonds in February 2000, just 30 days before the bear market began. Thanks to Bill O'Neil and his advise not to fight the market, I was in cash by May of 2000 and have just been ducking in and out of the market since then.
<BR>
<BR>I subscribe to Daily Graphs and could not do without it. For my money it is the best screening tool available. I do not normally consider a stock with less than 500,000 shares traded daily in order to reduce some of the volatility. I depend heavily on the EPS and SMR ratings as indicators of financial health. As long as the market is down, but appears to be on the up turn, I put less weight on Relative Strength, Industry Relative Strength, and the Accumulation/Distribution ratings. Instead, I am looking for great companies that will lead the bull market. I think those leaders will come from the financial group simply because money, as a commodity, is cheap and can be resold at a very high markup.
<BR>
<BR>I have been lurking for a few days and have enjoyed the calm, business like tenor or your postings.
Tom: Our family and friends club has been set up to accommodate even young
teenagers if they are interested. Monthly minimum dues $10 and that gets you
one vote equal to any other investor regardless of total invested. This
group, with average ages of perhaps 35 or 40, is spirited and fun. They have
hundreds of questions and are eager to learn.
My retired friends, are well, retired. Our meetings are more of a social
get-together. It is hard to get them excited about anything. When I set the
club up I thought there would be a lot of interest, but in reality they are
more interested in their next cruise.
I agree that the tech sector has to come back but I fear it is a long way
down the road. For example, take a look at SunMicrosystems SUNW, a truly fine
company. It now trades at 227 time earnings, and earnings are expected to
decrease to a 9 cent loss this year, and only grow to .20 next year. At my
age I don't even buy green bananas, much less invest in companies for the
long term. On the other hand, my son can buy 1000 shares of SUNW, forget
about it for 5 or 10 years, and enjoy a good increase.
In spite of my business background I would not invest in the insurance
industry. Growth is slow and subject to catastrophic loss. I spent the better
part of 40 years trying to explain why rates fall to extreme lows then
suddenly reverse.
I think the new leaders, in the short run, will be banks, and perhaps even
stronger leaders, the credit companies. Look at Americredit (ACF), up 50%
since February 27th. Other credit card companies moving up fast are KRB and
COF. For someone in for the short term, say 3 to 6 months, I like the action.
(When I refer to the short term I mean my interest in any given stock, not my
life span.)
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Tom: Our family and friends club has been set up to accommodate even young teenagers if they are interested. Monthly minimum dues $10 and that gets you one vote equal to any other investor regardless of total invested. This group, with average ages of perhaps 35 or 40, is spirited and fun. They have hundreds of questions and are eager to learn.
<BR>
<BR>My retired friends, are well, retired. Our meetings are more of a social get-together. It is hard to get them excited about anything. When I set the club up I thought there would be a lot of interest, but in reality they are more interested in their next cruise.
<BR>
<BR>I agree that the tech sector has to come back but I fear it is a long way down the road. For example, take a look at SunMicrosystems SUNW, a truly fine company. It now trades at 227 time earnings, and earnings are expected to decrease to a 9 cent loss this year, and only grow to .20 next year. At my age I don't even buy green bananas, much less invest in companies for the long term. On the other hand, my son can buy 1000 shares of SUNW, forget about it for 5 or 10 years, and enjoy a good increase.
<BR>
<BR>In spite of my business background I would not invest in the insurance industry. Growth is slow and subject to catastrophic loss. I spent the better part of 40 years trying to explain why rates fall to extreme lows then suddenly reverse.
<BR>
<BR>I think the new leaders, in the short run, will be banks, and perhaps even stronger leaders, the credit companies. Look at Americredit (ACF), up 50% since February 27th. Other credit card companies moving up fast are KRB and COF. For someone in for the short term, say 3 to 6 months, I like the action. (When I refer to the short term I mean my interest in any given stock, not my life span.)
From: "Marshak, Alex (CTG-HR Sys)" <Amarshak@exchange.ml.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie
Date: 18 Mar 2002 09:44:23 -0500
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this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
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Hi Tom,
I am sorry for the loss of your friend.
I came from Russia (USSR) To USA back in January 1979 and I brought my dog with me.
It was a big journey for us: from Russia to Czechoslovakia, Austria, Italy and finally USA.
It was not easy with 150 pounds dog AND no money. When he died in 1988 I was crying for several days and
never had a dog since then(though my parents have a dog and a cat).
Again, I am sorry for your loss.
PS.
Without recovery in Japan and/or Europe it will be very difficult for US alone to come back to the glorious bulls days in the near future
- stay defensive for the rest of the year.
Alex Marshak
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Saturday, March 16, 2002 9:43 AM
I lost my oldest cat early this morning, Cassandra was my wife's pick over 17 years ago, but she could not beat cancer despite two recent operations. She was not an easy cat to love, but she leaves a
hole in my soul nonetheless. She was a good girl right to the end, and did not force me to put her down, she picked her time and place. I cannot count the number of WWW columns she interrupted because
she needed some attention, I only wish she could interrupt many more. My wife died over six years ago, and this was a fresh visit to that loss.
_____
JAPAN
Despite the 28% gain in the Nikkei in just five weeks, the fundamentals of Japanese economy are little improved. The latest report on private sector machinery orders showed a drop of 15.6% in January,
far worst than expected, and indicates weak capital spending in the near future. Meanwhile, GDP dropped 1.2% in the last quarter of 2001, and nat'l debt was already 140% of GDP, largest ratio of the
top 7 industrialized nations. Both are the worst since the end of WWII.
_____
ANDERSEN
Scored another record, they were the auditors for HIH, an Australian insurance company and that country's largest ever bankruptcy. More lawsuits against Andersen are expected. Meanwhile the company
talked to Deloitte about a possible merger, or purchase of assets after they find a way to protect the buyer from Enron and other liabilities (one possibility - bankruptcy!!). And on Monday, FedEx
made it official, dumped Andersen for Deloitte. Many more are following, and looks to me like the firm is ended. Deloitte ended talks on a possible buyout as did one other of the top "5", and the
other two are not even interested in initiating talks. Seems the potential liability is just too great. So goes one of the formerly great names in the accounting industry. Besides, why pay for clients
when they will come to you for free?
_____
ECONOMICS
Forecasts for Q1 GDP are rising fast, already up a full percent to 2.6%. Noted for unexpected strength are consumer spending and business investment.
Inventories fell less than expected in January (0.2% vs 0.4% expected), however overall sales increased 1.2%. This was the biggest sales increase since June 2000. Meanwhile retail sales increased only
0.3% instead of the expected 0.9%. Much of the difference came from auto sales. Without autos, expected was 0.5% and actual was 0.2%.
FOMC meets on Tuesday, and is widely expected to eliminate the easing bias at a minimum. Expectations now are nearly 100% that they will raise rates at the May meeting. And using the futures as a
forecasting barometer suggests that rates, presently at 1.75%, will be up to 3% by the end of the year. To me, so far the economic recovery appears to be stronger than Mr. G was expecting, and may
open a window of opportunity for his often speculated retirement. That would likely be disruptive to the markets for the short term, at least.
Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge soared for February to 95 from 90.7. Expectations were for a gain to 93. Both the Current Conditions and the Expectations Indexes were also up.
And Industrial Production rose 0.4% for February, double the expectations. Capacity Utilization was up slightly.
The PPI rose an expected 0.2%, while the core rate was unchanged against expectations of a 0.1% rise.
_____
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
As always, a Bx simply means a flat line "B"ase over "x" weeks, IMO. Should I see other familiar patterns, such as a c&h, double bottom, LLUR, etc., then I will say so.
The population of stocks I will be reviewing continues to grow slowly, but I continue to see deterioration in small/micro cap growth stocks in favor of small cap value stocks and mid to large cap
stocks. Techs continue to fail to show strong and consistent leadership. Homebuilders looks to be rolling over finally.
ACS - nice short c&h
AGY - B6
ATPX - high handle
BIO - b/o Friday from short base, volume not convincing
BLUD - holding Wednesday's b/o
CPS - B4
DF - handle on a weak double bottom, volume not convincing
DLX - just continuing on its LLUR way
ESI - decent 8 month c&h
HCBK - B5
LUX - b/o Friday on volume, short base
LYTX - b/o Friday on volume, 3 week base
MCL - LLUR
NFI - saucer
ODP - B4+
OII - B3
PBIX - B7
PEGA - base on base, in my VR Fund, low price, volume
PETM - LLUR
PNG - B3
POSS - trying to b/o from short handle on the cup, in my VR Fund
Steve: To bad the stock didn't have a strong up volume today. It looks like
considerable resistance at the $63 level. I am also concerned that the price
relative strength (59) is so weak. Also, note the debt level at 103%. I
didn't try to find out why but it may be worth the research.
I know that O,Neil doesn't put much weight on the P/E but I suspect the P/E
of 46 is well above the Industry Group average, and is well above the S&P 500
Index average of 30. Multiplying the P/E times the projected earnings of 1.66
indicates a price of $76. by December. I doubt that that is in the cards so I
suspect the P/E will fall because of falling share price. The reason I check
out the P/E is because so many of the large buyers move money simply because
they think the stock has become over priced. I was following several
pharmaceuticals earlier this year and they all fell at about the same time
because the P/E's had risen and the sellers were freeing up cash for the
market upturn. (At least that is what I think was the reason-they do not
consult with me.)
The stock may be forming a cup/handle, but the handle is over 2 weeks long
which makes me suspicious. The right side of the cup at $63 is above the left
side of $61.22 (July 30 2001) and that also makes me suspicious.
I like this company and it is worth following. Good luck. Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Steve: To bad the stock didn't have a strong up volume today. It looks like considerable resistance at the $63 level. I am also concerned that the price relative strength (59) is so weak. Also, note the debt level at 103%. I didn't try to find out why but it may be worth the research.
<BR>I know that O,Neil doesn't put much weight on the P/E but I suspect the P/E of 46 is well above the Industry Group average, and is well above the S&P 500 Index average of 30. Multiplying the P/E times the projected earnings of 1.66 indicates a price of $76. by December. I doubt that that is in the cards so I suspect the P/E will fall because of falling share price. The reason I check out the P/E is because so many of the large buyers move money simply because they think the stock has become over priced. I was following several pharmaceuticals earlier this year and they all fell at about the same time because the P/E's had risen and the sellers were freeing up cash for the market upturn. (At least that is what I think was the reason-they do not consult with me.)
<BR>The stock may be forming a cup/handle, but the handle is over 2 weeks long which makes me suspicious. The right side of the cup at $63 is above the left side of $61.22 (July 30 2001) and that also makes me suspicious.
<BR>I like this company and it is worth following. Good luck. Charley</FONT></HTML>
Tom: A few months ago one of the TV "bears" commented that a stock market
recovery could not occur until the P/E ratio's fell significantly. In other
words, stock prices are too high, or earnings too low. He noted that the S&P
500 Index P/E was (at the time) 28. Since I don't trust the S&P 500 Index
averages I started to research the P/E ratio of Industry Groups, as defined
by IBD. I am far from complete but my initial findings indicate that, with
the exception of the technology sector, average P/E's really are not that
high. Credit card companies like Capital One Finance (COF), and MBNA (KRB),
have an average P/E of about 22; 8 points below the current S/P Index average.
So, what is the point? I use this to determine if the stock P/E is in line
with it's own industry. It could also be used to determine a target price to
sell the stock in the future. While there are notable exceptions, (CSCO,
QCOM, JDSU), most stocks get downgraded when they hit P/E ratios inconsistent
with analyst projections, and this causes a price decline.
(Maybe I have more time than sense.)
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Tom: A few months ago one of the TV "bears" commented that a stock market recovery could not occur until the P/E ratio's fell significantly. In other words, stock prices are too high, or earnings too low. He noted that the S&P 500 Index P/E was (at the time) 28. Since I don't trust the S&P 500 Index averages I started to research the P/E ratio of Industry Groups, as defined by IBD. I am far from complete but my initial findings indicate that, with the exception of the technology sector, average P/E's really are not that high. Credit card companies like Capital One Finance (COF), and MBNA (KRB), have an average P/E of about 22; 8 points below the current S/P Index average.
<BR>So, what is the point? I use this to determine if the stock P/E is in line with it's own industry. It could also be used to determine a target price to sell the stock in the future. While there are notable exceptions, (CSCO, QCOM, JDSU), most stocks get downgraded when they hit P/E ratios inconsistent with analyst projections, and this causes a price decline.
For those of you who are new, my name is Jeff Salisbury and I'm the owner and admin of the canslim email discussion group. We've had a surge of new members join us during the last 1-2 weeks. I understand that our list was referenced in Forbes magazine. Can anyone tell me the Forbes issue and page number were we were referenced?
Regards,
Jeff - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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Thank you Katherine. That is good information I can use. You give me the
incentive to speed up my study. Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Thank you Katherine. That is good information I can use. You give me the incentive to speed up my study. Charley</FONT></HTML>
Duke: Now I understand and it makes sense. Thanks to you and Katherine for
your guidance. Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Duke: Now I understand and it makes sense. Thanks to you and Katherine for your guidance. Charley</FONT></HTML>
Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Evaluation by cwhCharts.com
Date: 20 Mar 2002 14:18:45 EST
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Sorry, but I misplaced the gentleman's name who posted the link to the
Canslim evaluation chart. I have a question concerning the Institutional
Sponsorship category. Would you explain the "measurement"? It appears to read
that a value in the range of 5% to 50% needed. What does this mean? It
apparently doesn't refer to the percentage of the company owned by
institutions.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Sorry, but I misplaced the gentleman's name who posted the link to the Canslim evaluation chart. I have a question concerning the Institutional Sponsorship category. Would you explain the "measurement"? It appears to read that a value in the range of 5% to 50% needed. What does this mean? It apparently doesn't refer to the percentage of the company owned by institutions.
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Evaluation by cwhCharts.com
Date: 20 Mar 2002 15:05:50 EST
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Mike: Would you mind looking at an evaluation for ACF? The value is shown as
95% and it gets a fail grade. Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Mike: Would you mind looking at an evaluation for ACF? The value is shown as 95% and it gets a fail grade. Charley</FONT></HTML>
Fred: I too see the financials moving although I have not ventured into the
micro-caps. My general rule is to invest $25,000 to $30,000 in any given
stock, and I would follow that rule even with micro-caps. Can you briefly
explain the downside? For example, if I bought $25,000 of NASB, would I have
any trouble unloading tomorrow? Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Fred: I too see the financials moving although I have not ventured into the micro-caps. My general rule is to invest $25,000 to $30,000 in any given stock, and I would follow that rule even with micro-caps. Can you briefly explain the downside? For example, if I bought $25,000 of NASB, would I have any trouble unloading tomorrow? Charley</FONT></HTML>
Its JMHO, but rather than a high RS, you might consider looking for lack of meaningful resistance. If a stock has been flat-lining, but is still within 20% of its high, and its relative valuation is low, volume will make it start climbing even faster than stocks that have a high RS.
If M has been in a prolonged, broad-based decline, all these stocks will have a high RS anyhow. But, M bottmed out quite a long time ago now, and there have been a lot of stocks climbing since 10/01/01 - so I periodically see a nice flat base with an RS between 60 and 80.
Also, with microcaps, you get fabulous volume clues as to when a big rise might start. If the last 4 days of volume have been 300%+ of the 50-day average before the volume kicked in, then you want to take a really close look at the fundies, outlook, and relative peer-group valuation.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 9:45 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
Tom, I set the following scan in DGO and uncovered 73 gems, was totally surprised at how high the EPS & RS ratings are. Thanks for your help, just what the doctor ordered.
Gene
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Greater than or equal to: 50
Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Greater than or equal to: 80
% of Stock Owned by Mutual Funds Less than or equal to: 10
Current Price From 2.000 to 20.000
Current 50-Day Average Volume(1000) From 1 to 500
ROE (Latest Fiscal Year Reported) Greater than or equal to: 10
Current Trailing 12 Month P/E From 1 to 100
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:24 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
Gene,
Micro and really, really small "small caps" are my favorites. I review daily a list of stocks hitting new highs that day, using Marketwatch at the CBS site. My basic parameters are volume of 1000 to 500,000 shares traded that day, price from $2 to $20, market cap up to several hundred million (depending on your preference), and trailing PE of 1 to 100.
For CANSLIM criteria, I want RS at least over 80, but preferably well over 90. I will accept EPS ranking down to about 50 or so, but only if I can vocalize why earnings per share is ready to accelerate. I personally prefer funds ownership in the low single digits to zero (I like to be smarter and quicker than the average small cap fund manager), with management ownership well into double digits. I have had some of my better results with management owning over 50% of the issue.
While I like ROE well into double digits, I have had many winners where it was in the low single digits when I first bought it.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:57 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
I would like to find fundamentally sound microcap stocks... any hints on DGO criteria... ?
Thanks,
Gene
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 5:25 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SMD
Good luck, I saw it on many of my daily lists, but also could not convince
myself that Karaoke (shudder) was making a come back.
Guess I should have dug deeper despite my lack of singing talent.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ricardo Bekin" <rbekin@hotmail.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SMD
HI Tom, I thought it might have been an acquisition, but then I dug into the
financials and listened to the latest conference call, and the bottom line
is it was growth, pure and simple (I personally don't like Karaoke, but I
guess there's a whole lot of wannabe Wayne Newtons and Spice Girls out
there)
SMD thinks they can continue to grow in the US (it would be great if they
picked up the WalMart account) and then will also expand in Europe
by the way, I had some other issues with the Balance Sheet, like the huge
spike in A/R, but the CC cleared that too (they have already collected on
most or all of the receivables)
"sounds" good to me
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 4:49 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SMD
> Ricardo,
>
> I note that the Sep and Dec quarters tripled sales, and earnings went
> through the roof. I would want to know that whatever happened to cause
this
> (maybe an acquisition?) will continue in the future.
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@bellsouth.net
> AIM: TexWorley
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ricardo Bekin" <rbekin@hotmail.com>
> To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 1:13 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] SMD
>
>
> SMD is close to a new high today, on 1.5 times ADV, it just keeps humming
> along (sorry...)
>
> I liked the fundamentals and bought it earlier this month (before the
Tom: I admire your patience and ability to find companies at what appears to
be the very beginning of their run. There are dozens of ways to invest and
always someone who seems to have found an edge. I admit that I would lose
sleep if I couldn't complete a sale shortly after placing an order. Thank you
for the explanation. Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Tom: I admire your patience and ability to find companies at what appears to be the very beginning of their run. There are dozens of ways to invest and always someone who seems to have found an edge. I admit that I would lose sleep if I couldn't complete a sale shortly after placing an order. Thank you for the explanation. Charley</FONT></HTML>
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Katherine: We discussed comparing the P/E, not only with the S&P Index, but with the Industry and other companies within the industry. Look what I found. Charley <A HREF="http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?cmetric=mktval&rht=qtr&hht=qtr&mght=qtr&symbol=+AXP+KRB+COF+acf+sgr+gd+mhk">Quicken.com - Security Evaluator</A> </FONT></HTML>
IMHO, ACMR had its CANSLIM volume breakout in October at $18. My experience in this market is that once the secondary hits (after the shares have doubled in 5 months, and are up 300%+ on the year), it is time to be very cautious. Personally, I will use very tight stops (much less than 7%) if I ever buy a stock thats just done a secondary after a big run. Some even make it to my short-sell watch list. Also, I saw some real weakness in retailers the last couple of days.
Just my 2 cents - worth waht you paid for it,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Robert Hodes
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 8:19 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
Tom: Thanks for your comments. Here's one more for the mix ACMR. It has a nicer 3 year growth rate for earnings and revenue. Projected earnings growth of 26%. Sector is rated #2. May be little extended past it's pivot point. As I read the chart, pp is 34.
Bob Hodes
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 5:51 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
Hi Robert,
Some quick comments:
INT - both sales and earnings stagnant on sequential basis, weak forecasts, very weak industry
MIMS - same thing, despite a 34% earnings growth forecast for present year
RACN - nice chart and growing fundies, may be developing into a steep LLUR
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Robert Hodes
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 8:51 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
HI: I'm new to this listserve but I've been reading IBD for some time now. I also have an interest in micro and small caps. I've been evaluating a strategy that looks at stocks selected by IBD criteria and crossreferences this list with stocks selected by a GARP (growth at a reasonably price strategy). This tends to identify many small cap companies. A few look like they are about to breakout to new highs. They all have good EPS and RS ratings. Currently, I'm watching INT and MIMS and RACN from this selection process. Good luck.
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:24 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
Gene,
Micro and really, really small "small caps" are my favorites. I review daily a list of stocks hitting new highs that day, using Marketwatch at the CBS site. My basic parameters are volume of 1000 to 500,000 shares traded that day, price from $2 to $20, market cap up to several hundred million (depending on your preference), and trailing PE of 1 to 100.
For CANSLIM criteria, I want RS at least over 80, but preferably well over 90. I will accept EPS ranking down to about 50 or so, but only if I can vocalize why earnings per share is ready to accelerate. I personally prefer funds ownership in the low single digits to zero (I like to be smarter and quicker than the average small cap fund manager), with management ownership well into double digits. I have had some of my better results with management owning over 50% of the issue.
While I like ROE well into double digits, I have had many winners where it was in the low single digits when I first bought it.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:57 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MicroCaps
I would like to find fundamentally sound microcap stocks... any hints on DGO criteria... ?
Thanks,
Gene
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 5:25 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SMD
Good luck, I saw it on many of my daily lists, but also could not convince
myself that Karaoke (shudder) was making a come back.
Guess I should have dug deeper despite my lack of singing talent.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ricardo Bekin" <rbekin@hotmail.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:02 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SMD
HI Tom, I thought it might have been an acquisition, but then I dug into the
financials and listened to the latest conference call, and the bottom line
is it was growth, pure and simple (I personally don't like Karaoke, but I
guess there's a whole lot of wannabe Wayne Newtons and Spice Girls out
there)
SMD thinks they can continue to grow in the US (it would be great if they
picked up the WalMart account) and then will also expand in Europe
by the way, I had some other issues with the Balance Sheet, like the huge
spike in A/R, but the CC cleared that too (they have already collected on
most or all of the receivables)
"sounds" good to me
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 4:49 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SMD
> Ricardo,
>
> I note that the Sep and Dec quarters tripled sales, and earnings went
> through the roof. I would want to know that whatever happened to cause
this
> (maybe an acquisition?) will continue in the future.
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@bellsouth.net
> AIM: TexWorley
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ricardo Bekin" <rbekin@hotmail.com>
> To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 1:13 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] SMD
>
>
> SMD is close to a new high today, on 1.5 times ADV, it just keeps humming
> along (sorry...)
>
> I liked the fundamentals and bought it earlier this month (before the
Tom: Isn't this the one you said looked stretched out? Good call. Down over
$2.00 today so far. Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Tom: Isn't this the one you said looked stretched out? Good call. Down over $2.00 today so far. Charley</FONT></HTML>
Erk (that was my first thought) - well, I can see a few problems. Growth last quarter
was negative, ROE is 6.3%, far far too low, and its not exactly a growth industry. I
would guess this constitutes a turnaround play, probably be an upswing in business
with an economic rebound, but from a purely Canslim point of view it doesn't
measure up. Chart does look more or less constructive.
On 22 Mar 2002 at 20:21, Matt & Alicia Leverette wrote:
> I would like to get some comments on ESA. Looks like to me that it has formed a C&H formation with the left side at $17.90 on January 9th and the right side at $18.20 on March 19th. It now appears to be forming a handle and volume is drying up.
>
> The EPS is only 71 and if I remember correctly their rating has been better in the past. The RS is only 65, but the overall ranking on the IBD website is 91.
>
> I will also mention is has formed a triple top on the P&F chart.
Anyone know, or have an opinion, why the gold/silver mining stocks did so
well Friday? I heard one analyst speculating that there will be a worldwide
currency crisis before summer, but this was after the market closed.
GG up 10%
ASL 7%
GG 4%
GLG 7%
LIHRY 9%
PDG 4%
RGLD 5%
I stumbled across this while screening.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Anyone know, or have an opinion, why the gold/silver mining stocks did so well Friday? I heard one analyst speculating that there will be a worldwide currency crisis before summer, but this was after the market closed.
Dan: This explains up surge on Friday. Charley <A HREF="http://aolpf5.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dist=aolpf&siteid=aolpf&dateid=37337.5820717593-798163795">NewsFinder</A>
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Dan: This explains up surge on Friday. Charley <A HREF="http://aolpf5.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dist=aolpf&siteid=aolpf&dateid=37337.5820717593-798163795">NewsFinder</A> </FONT></HTML>
There is no fundamental reason for golds to rally. The world is not coming to blow up.<BR>
Inflation is low.<BR>
This is pure herd instinct. Ignore the noise in the gold stocks. Move to better performing groups like housing (extended) , specialty retail and restaurants. <BR>
As further confirmation that point 1 below has some merit, check out the comments
on the techinical picture at the link below -
http://www.mrci.com/lbr/charts/20020322/4.htm
I'm not much on gold stocks, for anyone that is, the following site is a good source -
http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/
And finally, the link below has predictions for the price of gold in 2002, the guy who
runs the page above has an entry, look for Bob Johnson 5 lines from the top, last
year he nailed the price range within a dollar or two. I know him, he is very sharp
on gold, not a gold bug, looks at everything on a fundamental basis and is generally
correct on his comments about gold price movements -
http://pages.prodigy.net/rjohnson/2002au.htm
On 24 Mar 2002 at 10:03, Robert McGill wrote:
> 1. speculative fund buying triggered pre-placed purchase orders/buy stops & generated further buying by funds. 2. expected participants in gold trade to sell into gains, but instead pushed it higher egging funds to continue adding to long positions. 3. weaker yen against dollar &
procrastination toward fighting deflation have rattled investor confidence in Japan's banking system & spurred demand for gold. 4. predominant influence was stop-loss buying @ 294-296 which we ran through. 5. gains in gold mining equites cited as supportive of rally as historically they are
leading indicators for underlying commodity price. 6. funds showed willingness to roll April contracts forward to June futures instead of liquidating them, show trader confidence of uptrend. 7. rally stopped at major resistance of 298. Possible follow-through gains on Mon, but expected to
test bottom of trading range 294-298 before moving higher. 8. Move through 298 expectred to target buy stops above 300. support for April now seen @ failed resistance of 295.
> From: Tom Worley
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Sunday, March 24, 2002 9:27 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] gold rally
>
>
> sorry, Robert, the page is only available to subscribers. Perhaps you could summarize?
My thanks to Kris, Tom and Robert for the response to the gold question. This
may, or may not, turn out to be a major development. When Japan removes
unlimited financial protection to bank depositors on April 1, there could be
a run on the banks. These people must be pretty desperate if they are hiding
gold in their homes. I for one will be watching the beginning of the new
fiscal year in Japan.
Thanks again. I am impressed with the quick and knowledgeable responses.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>My thanks to Kris, Tom and Robert for the response to the gold question. This may, or may not, turn out to be a major development. When Japan removes unlimited financial protection to bank depositors on April 1, there could be a run on the banks. These people must be pretty desperate if they are hiding gold in their homes. I for one will be watching the beginning of the new fiscal year in Japan.
<BR>
<BR>Thanks again. I am impressed with the quick and knowledgeable responses. Charley</FONT></HTML>
Chas: I also have IGT on my list and I like everything about it, except the
Industry Group. My personal opinion is that the group will move up quickly as
the market improves. These Investment Banks make it all tick. Some of the
large houses, Merrill (I think) was upgraded last week and S&P has a buy
rating on Lehman right now. I intend to keep this company on the list because
I think the Financials will lead the way.
For confirmation, take a look at the credit card companies like KRB and COF.
The spread between the cost of money and it's sales price will return fat
profits for the next quarter or so.
Charley Moore
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Chas: I also have IGT on my list and I like everything about it, except the Industry Group. My personal opinion is that the group will move up quickly as the market improves. These Investment Banks make it all tick. Some of the large houses, Merrill (I think) was upgraded last week and S&P has a buy rating on Lehman right now. I intend to keep this company on the list because I think the Financials will lead the way.
<BR>For confirmation, take a look at the credit card companies like KRB and COF. The spread between the cost of money and it's sales price will return fat profits for the next quarter or so.
A sell-off in the 30-year bond last Wednesday helped re-ignite fears that the Fed may soon begin to raise interest rates, possibly as early as the May meeting. Equities felt the wrath of the credit market and declined, fueled by concerns that rising rates could stifle the forthcoming rebound. Although the equity market regained some of the losses incurred during the middle of the week, a more negative sentiment has begun to permeate the investment landscape.
Although investors have tried to focus upon the signs of economic recovery and the necessity that profits respond accordingly, the fear that such a rebound will induce interest rate pressures have left many market participants perplexed and non committal. Moreover, ôcreditö issues continue to surface, adding another element of uncertainty and contributing to a directionless market. Several banks have maintained tightened lending standards, and consequently a sustainable rise in commercial and industrial (C&I) loan volume has yet to materialize. Yield spreads between long-term Treasury bonds and corporate bonds rated Baa and below are wide by historical standards, indicating that investors are anxious and demanding higher returns. In addition, the commercial paper market remains closed for many companies, further illustrating the pervasive fear that has gripped the financial markets. Certain blue chip companies have encountered severe criticism when issuing bonds. Last week, General ElectricÆs (GE) finan
Adding little to clarify the FedÆs view or profit prospects was the February CPI report. Data released last week offered little evidence that inflation is on the verge of unexpectedly rising. Some prognosticators and the media tried to portray a greater than expected rise in the ôcoreö CPI as a sign that pricing pressures might be building, thereby prompting a series of rate increases. However, a 3.8% increase in tobacco prices accounted for the entire upside surprise. Year over year, the CPI has risen only 1.1%, the slowest pace since 1964.
The CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) futures index, which some use as a gauge of inflationary pressures, rose 7% over the past two weeks. However, from an economic cycle perspective, this reading illustrates that demand is beginning to improve and deflationary pressures have started to dissipate. Despite the recent gain, commodity prices have dropped over 6% during the last twelve months and stand at roughly the same level they were two and a half years ago.
As the financial markets grapple with the many crosscurrents that characterize any recovery, the stage is set for a healthy rebound that should gather momentum as the year progresses. Competition, excess capacity, and the structural productivity gains achieved last decade should produce an environment where price increases remain contained. In addition, a strong dollar suggests that fears of inflation appear premature. Last week, the U.S. dollar recorded its biggest weekly gain against the yen since January 2000.
Volatility in the credit markets is characteristic of changes in the business cycle and policy shifts. Prior transition periods from recession to recovery have exhibited upward pressure on long-term rates in the early stages only to be followed by lower rates as fears dissipate. This time should prove to be no exception. Despite the psychological dilemma that have captured investors, the power of the recovery should in time dominate the investment landscape.
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NBSC 80/93 Chart is looking good, starting to break out on good volume.
Might be worth watching next few days.
DLI 80/89 also looking good and worth watching.
Chris
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2><B>NBSC 80/93</B> Chart is looking good, starting to break out on good volume. Might be worth watching next few days.<BR>
<BR>
<B>DLI 80/89</B> also looking good and worth watching.<BR>
NBSC wrote down an investment in DGI BioTechnologies, which has been a money pit for them in recent years. More importantly, they have no future financial commitments to them (it is a startup biotech), but they still retain almost 50% ownership, in case there is ever any upside. That should clear their ability to grow EPS substantially in the next 9 months, and make the strength of their core business much more visible.
They are seasonal, so you likely won't see sequential growth, but y-o-y should be solid going forward, with a marked increase in y-o-y EPS for the next 3 quarters.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, March 26, 2002 4:11 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NBSC, DLI
Hi Chris,
NBSC - I must admit I missed this low priced micro cap back at the $6 base, just wasn't impressed with the lack of growth of either sales or earnings. I suspect the explosive Q4 is 9/11 related, and likely unsustainable, so disappointment may lie ahead for investors sudden high expectations.
DLI - Q2 showed a nice growth in both sales and earnings, but didn't do much since in Q3 and Q4. Unless this years Q1 shows some further growth, Y2Y comparisons are likely to be pretty flat by Q2. Also has 149% debt, but otherwise the fundies look decent except for the 9% ROE.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Vanchee1@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Monday, March 25, 2002 7:49 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] NBSC
NBSC 80/93 Chart is looking good, starting to break out on good volume. Might be worth watching next few days.
DLI 80/89 also looking good and worth watching.
Chris
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It looks like this stock is forming a handle. Fundamentals look pretty good.
Any opinions? Charley More
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>It looks like this stock is forming a handle. Fundamentals look pretty good. Any opinions? Charley More</FONT></HTML>
Thanks for your comments Ira, I like it too. It is the best in its industry
group, and more important perhaps, it has considerable control over the sales
price of its products. Today's lack of volume indicates to me that it is
getting ready to break out soon. Charley Moore
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Thanks for your comments Ira, I like it too. It is the best in its industry group, and more important perhaps, it has considerable control over the sales price of its products. Today's lack of volume indicates to me that it is getting ready to break out soon. Charley Moore </FONT></HTML>
Robert: Thanks for the link. I set up a watch list with 10 gold stocks as of
close Friday. Eight are up over 5%, and one, RGLD, up over 10%.
Of course I don't have the guts to buy but I think they are a pretty good
indicator of what is happening in Japan for the short term. Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Robert: Thanks for the link. I set up a watch list with 10 gold stocks as of close Friday. Eight are up over 5%, and one, RGLD, up over 10%.
<BR>Of course I don't have the guts to buy but I think they are a pretty good indicator of what is happening in Japan for the short term. Charley</FONT></HTML>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PPDI Prevailing Wisdom on Earnings Announcment
Date: 27 Mar 2002 20:54:56 GMT
Katherine, Patrick:
I can, unfortunately, shed light on the CMTN fiasco. I think they were one
of the first of the CLECs (or some similar acronym) to fall prey to an
analyst who uncovered that the CLECs were losing customers to the bad
ecomnomy. This was released after they had decended from their top but it
accelerated their demise. Shortly after they crashed so did others of
their guild. And of course the law suites came snow-balling afterwards. I
can't remember too many details (or maybe subconciously I just don't want
to). It was a bad time early in my investing "career" :-(
Norm
Katherine Malm writes:
> Patrick...I was completely with you until you mentioned CMTN....could it be that slide was coincident with the market top? I'd have to look back at a chart, but I think it was well into a blow-off top at the time and probably had very little to do with an earnings announcement or anything else!
>
> Katherine
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Patrick Wahl
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Wednesday, March 27, 2002 2:19 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PPDI Prevailing Wisdom on Earnings Announcment
>
>
> Buying ahead of earnings was discussed sometime last year, I think. It is not
> discussed anywhere that I know of by WON, but it does make sense that you don't
> make a new commitment to a stock only a few days before an earnings
> announcement. Almost certainly you will have only a small gain if you are just into
> a stock and earnings can really thrash the smaller Canslim type stock, so I think you
> are taking on more risk when you buy too close to an earnings release. As far as
> institutions soaking up a stock, fine, but if you are trying to keep losses manageable,
> you may be out on a short term hit before the stock can stabilize. If you have held
> a stock for a while and have a gain, you an afford to sit through the earnings and
> hope it's a favorable surprise or at least status quo.
>
> I'm even a little suspicious of a stock that breaks out just ahead of the earnings
> release, seems to have a bit of the speculative flavor to it and be prone to failing.
> Anecdotally speaking, Copper Mountain hit its all time high about two days before
> an earnings release, and then it was all down hill from there, about 100 dollars
> down. I remember because I was very tempted to jump in, but fortunately
> something held me back, I think it was a little fear about buying ahead of the
> earnings release.
>
>
>
>
> On 27 Mar 2002 at 13:39, Katherine Malm wrote:
>
> > Tim,
> >
> > See what you mean. The Bear has certainly bred a
> > short-term-smoke-em-while-you've-got-em mentality into the market.
> > Still think that the majority of institutional monies are committed to
> > longer term views, so ultimately a strong stock will overcome that
> > short term profit taking as institutions soak up the pullback.
Looks like a breakout for DFXI. Volume at 630,000 the first half hour versus
810,000 daily average. Price up over $2.00.
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Looks like a breakout for DFXI. Volume at 630,000 the first half hour versus 810,000 daily average. Price up over $2.00.</FONT></HTML>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NBSC - another one bites the dust ..
Date: 28 Mar 2002 12:51:09 EST
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In a message dated 3/28/02 8:24:07 AM Pacific Standard Time, ianstm@shaw.ca
writes:
> I sold my NBSC off the open this morning. I didn't like that comment in
> yeterdays SEC filing about "restrictions on exports". It looks like I'm not
> the only one.
>
> I'll wait for the dust to settle on this one.
>
> Ian
>
IM holding out, the drop is on low volume, not showing much conviction on the
sell side, what I call just consider some weak hands. "Hold the winners, sell
the losses," still a winner.
Chris
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>In a message dated 3/28/02 8:24:07 AM Pacific Standard Time, ianstm@shaw.ca writes:<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">I sold my NBSC off the open this morning. I didn't like that comment in<BR>
yeterdays SEC filing about "restrictions on exports". It looks like I'm not<BR>
the only one.<BR>
<BR>
I'll wait for the dust to settle on this one.<BR>
<BR>
Ian<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BR>
IM holding out, the drop is on low volume, not showing much conviction on the sell side, what I call just consider some weak hands. "Hold the winners, sell the losses," still a winner.<BR>
Believe this qualifies as real breakout. Volume at 2:00 PM EST 2,175,700
versus 811,000 daily average. Price up $3.16 to a new 52 wk hi.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Believe this qualifies as real breakout. Volume at 2:00 PM EST 2,175,700 versus 811,000 daily average. Price up $3.16 to a new 52 wk hi.
Jack, I use mental stops which I log on my spread sheet so I stick to my sell
points, which I note at the time of purchase. For me I use closer to a 10%
loss for a little more flexibility.
Chris
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=3 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Century Gothic" LANG="0">Jack, I use mental stops which I log on my spread sheet so I stick to my sell points, which I note at the time of purchase. For me I use closer to a 10% loss for a little more flexibility.<BR>
Of all of the WON rules, the 8% sell has been the most important to me. I
have no idea how many times I have had to sell, but it has had little effect
on my capital account. Thanks to WON I was out of the market by May 2000
watching from the sidelines.
I pull the trigger a littler quicker now if the market has been negative for
three or four days in a row. On line transaction charges are low enough that
I don't hesitate to sell if I just feel bad.
It is a little more difficult to bail out when you are ahead, say 25% in the
first 30 days.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Of all of the WON rules, the 8% sell has been the most important to me. I have no idea how many times I have had to sell, but it has had little effect on my capital account. Thanks to WON I was out of the market by May 2000 watching from the sidelines.
<BR>I pull the trigger a littler quicker now if the market has been negative for three or four days in a row. On line transaction charges are low enough that I don't hesitate to sell if I just feel bad.
<BR>It is a little more difficult to bail out when you are ahead, say 25% in the first 30 days.
Tom: Thanks for the Weekend Review. Much appreciated.
I was looking at ACS, trying to see the c/h formation, and it looks to me
like it is busted. I see the right lip on March 4 at $52.22 after 7 weeks.
The handle rises slightly then increases suddenly to $57.00 on March 18 on
volume of 2.5 million.
To me it seems to be a short base and lacking the explosive breakout we look
for.
Comments? Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Tom: Thanks for the Weekend Review. Much appreciated.
<BR>
<BR>I was looking at ACS, trying to see the c/h formation, and it looks to me like it is busted. I see the right lip on March 4 at $52.22 after 7 weeks. The handle rises slightly then increases suddenly to $57.00 on March 18 on volume of 2.5 million.
<BR>
<BR>To me it seems to be a short base and lacking the explosive breakout we look for.
<BR>To add my two cents worth on DFXI, you identified one of the things that troubles me too. They were able to buy ads on the cheap for a good while now. As the Economy improves, and spot prices increase, it could have an effect. I also wonder if they're not too dependent on Bowflex. We must be in a pretty advanced stage of that product cycle by now, wot?
<BR>
<BR>Disclosure: I own DFXI but am watching carefully.
'this one gets the "too many eyes award" in my book'
AHA! A closet attraction to microcap CANSLIM showing through :)
DFXI first made it onto my watchlist many, many years ago, when it was a penny stock (trading around $1 on the TSE). Despite the persistent urgings of a very shrewd friend, I passed on buying it. Taking into accounts multiple splits, I believe that was getting close to two orders of magnitude ago :(
Today, the upward, low-volume slope from 28 to 36, and the large short position, would combine to make me very wary. But then again, my long checkered history of being wary with DFXI has always been wrong in the past ...
Cheers,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, March 30, 2002 8:22 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI
Hi jans,
Hmmm...DFXI was up nearly 8% on the day, finishing near the high...so I'd say it did well. Can't say what will happen, but you're right that if it doesn't follow through, it might be a suspect breakout. I never like to go for a stock with too many eyes on it and this one gets the "too many eyes award" in my book, but this seems to be a company with savvy. (Sure hope they can afford all those BowFlex ads that run every 23 minutes.)
DGO doesn't have any new annotation tools...the DFXI notations were courtesy of a nifty shareware program called PrintKey Pro from www.warecentral.com. Best $19.95 I've spent in years...well, except for the $19.95 I spent yesterday filling up my prepaid card from Starbucks....gets that latte in my hands faster than ever!
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Spencer48@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, March 30, 2002 9:57 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI
Katherine:
A comment and a question. The comment: There is a high short-interest
in DFXI. It did gap up (and in my opinion broke-out) on Wednesday.
However, the question now should be whether the breakout is going to
fail or not. Without my going into how I feel the Market will behave, the
issue seems to be: Are the big institutions selling their DFXI into strength
(those who were short no doubt bought on the breakout, but the stock on
Thursday never really went anywhere even though volume was tremendous)?
According to WON (as I remember it) if the stock doesn't continue to go up
the next day after the breakout, the stock should most likely be sold.
Here's my question: How were you able to write on the DG chart (I'm not
talking about the red trendline)? Does DG have something new (viz. Writing
on charts)?
jans
In a message dated 3/28/2002 2:36:32 PM Eastern Standard Time,
Direct Focus, in my opinion, is basically a marketing company that has chosen
to sell high quality leisure equipment. They have "branded" their products
through heavy spot TV commercials, infomercials, Internet, response mailings
and print media. Their products include Bowflex, Nautilus, Schwinn, and
StairMaster. One strong trait is their ability to set the product price and
hold it for an extended period of time. I sent off for their free video tape
over a year ago and the Bowflex prices have not changed. They are growing
through acquisition which is reducing their fixed costs, and they are a clear
leader in their industry. Their IBD Industry Classification,
Leisure-Products, has done quite well over the last several months.
Having said all that, the stock price could drop like a rock Monday, and if
it does, I'm gone.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Robert, Katherine, and Spencer:
<BR>Direct Focus, in my opinion, is basically a marketing company that has chosen to sell high quality leisure equipment. They have "branded" their products through heavy spot TV commercials, infomercials, Internet, response mailings and print media. Their products include Bowflex, Nautilus, Schwinn, and StairMaster. One strong trait is their ability to set the product price and hold it for an extended period of time. I sent off for their free video tape over a year ago and the Bowflex prices have not changed. They are growing through acquisition which is reducing their fixed costs, and they are a clear leader in their industry. Their IBD Industry Classification, Leisure-Products, has done quite well over the last several months.
<BR>
<BR>Having said all that, the stock price could drop like a rock Monday, and if it does, I'm gone.
Katherine: I feel that you have said something very important and it is
eluding me. Would you please take a minute and expand your point?
By your concern over the timing do you mean that you think the upward
movement was caused by the Jaffray upgrade? If so, why is that a negative?
I was aware that about that 20% of the float had been shorted (6 million
shares) but the information is dated. Wasn't the last strike date March 15th?
The price has moved up since then so maybe the movement was caused by
covering?
Finally, why does a lot of people "watching" concern you?
I am not trying to defend this stock believe me. I would really like to know
more about what appears to me to be subtle points.
Charley
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<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT SIZE=2>Katherine: I feel that you have said something very important and it is eluding me. Would you please take a minute and expand your point?
<BR>By your concern over the timing do you mean that you think the upward movement was caused by the Jaffray upgrade? If so, why is that a negative?
<BR>I was aware that about that 20% of the float had been shorted (6 million shares) but the information is dated. Wasn't the last strike date March 15th? The price has moved up since then so maybe the movement was caused by covering?
<BR>Finally, why does a lot of people "watching" concern you?
<BR>
<BR>I am not trying to defend this stock believe me. I would really like to know more about what appears to me to be subtle points.
Actually, it is not low price/microcap that I prefer at all. Rather, what I look for is a low historical valuation based on P/S or P/E. The last few years, that has left me with nothing but microcaps. In the summer of '96, I could (and did) buy SUNW and EMC for the same low historical valuations - even while their businesses were experiencing strong revenue and EPS growth (the 'experts' were predicting the demise of high-priced servers, right at the start of the the Internets explosive growth curve ... LOL).
In '91, INTC and CSCO (and AOL) were trading at similar low multiple valuations and would have been at the top of my list (if I had been doing this back then), although MSFT would likely have been too 'pricey' for me.
The truth is that I would prefer to buy $15+ stocks, as it makes accumulating and selling much, much easier.
Cheers,
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, March 31, 2002 6:04 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI
I agree with you all that this is textbook CANSLIM down to the leadership status, savvy business planning, high ROE, high Sales/EPS growth, low institutional ownership, share buyback, etc. (They also own Nautilus sleep systems....those mattresses that have air chambers instead of box springs and compete with Select Comfort)...Good point about buying TV ad time on the cheap, Robert....more business savvy. My concern was that the breakout coincided with an upgrade by US Piper Jaffray (didn't notice that high short interest until Ian pointed it out). That, combined with a lot of CANSLIM eyes on the stock makes me wary about the timing, not the validity of the stock itself. I'll bet there'll be plenty of "second chances" for entry near the pivot on this one. (Hopefully no high-volume-rock-pullbacks for your sakes Charley and Robert!)
Ian...a question for you--If you were to find a company like DFXI that fit all your requirements except the low price/microcap status you prefer....would you pass? Seems that when you look back on a long term chart of stocks like INTC, DELL, CSCO that were once $25 "pricey" stocks, those prices now look like tiny blips in comparison.
Happy Easter,
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Chazmoore@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Saturday, March 30, 2002 11:33 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI
Robert, Katherine, and Spencer:
Direct Focus, in my opinion, is basically a marketing company that has chosen to sell high quality leisure equipment. They have "branded" their products through heavy spot TV commercials, infomercials, Internet, response mailings and print media. Their products include Bowflex, Nautilus, Schwinn, and StairMaster. One strong trait is their ability to set the product price and hold it for an extended period of time. I sent off for their free video tape over a year ago and the Bowflex prices have not changed. They are growing through acquisition which is reducing their fixed costs, and they are a clear leader in their industry. Their IBD Industry Classification, Leisure-Products, has done quite well over the last several months.
Having said all that, the stock price could drop like a rock Monday, and if it does, I'm gone.
Charley
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