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abolition-usa-digest    Tuesday, December 28 1999    Volume 01 : Number 241




----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 16:58:54 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) New Year in Sydney - The Best New Years Present (or anytime really)

New Year in Sydney - The Best New Years Present (or anytime really)

IT'S the day past boxing day here in Sydney - Still a public holiday, with
buses on sunday timetable.

The whole of Sydney is in holiday mode.

Unlike the northern hemisphere, down here it is warm and sunny though it
rains on and off today.

People are likely to spend new year with their families or friends at a
back - yard barbequeue,  or at the beach.  Right now there's a lot of
people taking their leisure in the city.

There are massive millenium celebrations planned for Christmas, and most
folk are cautiously confident that in Australia at least, the Y2K 'bug' has
been fixed.

In fact barely more than essential infrasrructure has been fixed, with most
business untouched but that's still better than most of the rest of the
world!

But whether you have had a warm to hot downunder new year or a US or
European snowy one, it would be much more of a pleasure if you knew that
there were not those 5,600 land- based ICBM warheads plus submarine and
bomber based warheads, on 24 hour a day immmediate, launch-on-warning
status.

That could ruin your entire new year, especially knowing that the oldest,
largest, most complex, and previously least Y2K compliant computer systems
in the world perform command, communications, control, and intelligence for
nuclear weapons systems.

These systems will only experience the rollover some 9-18 hours after
Australia does.
So new years day could be nervous, at least for those of us who think of
such things.

Sure, the Pentagon say they have spent $3.6billion to make their nuclear
combat command, communication, and control systems Y2K compliant.

Sure, the US and Russia have established a joint Y2K 'Strategic Stability
Centre' next to the Cheyyenne Mountain Complex in Colorado.

And it is important - indeed crucial - that they have done this.

However, we hope they have by now managed to fix the hotlines set up during
the cold war, and discovered to be non Y2K compliant in September.

If nuclear weapons could not be immediately launched, then not only over
the nervous Y2K rollover period, when US and Russian officers are going to
EXPECT false alerts, blank screens, and communication blackouts, but at any
other time when also false alerts have happened, decision makers would
never be forced into the situation in which they have to decide whether to
blow up the world in five minutes, perhaps at 3am in the morning when very
much the worse for wear after new years drinkies.

The best  gift Clinton or Yeltsin can give the world is to do as two
resolutions passed by the United Nations General Assembly a year ago with
massive majorities, and another two passed this year with massive
majorities, two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate and  one
resolution passed unanimously by the European Parliament have reccommended
- - to take nuclear weapons off hairtrigger alert and place them in a status
in which launch on warning is no longer possible.

A letter signed by 500 global environmental organisations, arms control
groups, religious bodies, NGOs, and Parliamentarians asking for nuclear
weapons to be taken off alert for the new year was faxed to Yeltsin and
Clinton some days ago. It will be faxed again on 29th or 30th.

Clinton, Cohen, and Yeltsin have now been recieving an awful lot of faxes
and phonecalls asking them to take missiles off alert.

Ask President Clinton, President Yeltsin, and their secretaries and
ministers for defence (Cohen and Sergeyev) to do this.

If you have access to a fax machine, a single page A4 fax even to the
Kremlin should cost you round a dollar. (public fax facilities charge an
arm and a leg so don't bother with them).

The best fax is handwritten, not typed.

Do it now - It's Christmas Eve tomorrow (or it is here in Sydney).

You can fax for free on: http://www.fax4free.com

You can fax Clinton on [phone]
You can fax US defence secy Cohen on 1-703-695-1149
You can fax Yeltsin and Sergeyev on [phone].

There are sample letters below.
You should shorten them and use your own words.
You don't need to write anything near as long as this. Use what you want of
these sample letters in your own way, and preferably, handwrite don't type.


1) SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON
(Please customise and shorten)

TO:
WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE, [phone],

PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON,  WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US,  [phone],
[phone].

Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen,

I am writing  to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off
'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period, to ask
that any false alarms or 'near misses' over the Y2K rollover and at any
other time be reported publicly, and to ask that the Y2K strategic
stability centre's operations be extended preferably indefinitely but at
least till May.

There is little time to act, and an immediate decision to place nuclear
weapons in a status in which immediate launch is impossible is essential to
ensure global stability.

As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and
President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear
weapons.

De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra
Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum,  as a way to develop
strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also
been incorporated into last year's  and  this years text of the New Agenda
Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a
resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General
Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers.
In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the
Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been
clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of
congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most
recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it.

De-Alerting and the establishment of the Y2K strategic stability centre are
not in competition with each other.  Indeed, we urge strongly that the
strategic stability centres operations be extended indefinitely.

Reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early
warning centers and de-alerting are all  vital to the reduction of tension
and the establishment of strategic stability.

This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the
millennium date change (Y2K).

As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in
the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems.

The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure
everything has been fixed until well into the new year.

Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K
problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian
computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will
experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period.

Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed
the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to
include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental
launch.

The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is
certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one, but it does
not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of nuclear
weapons.

The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware,
to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the
rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless.

Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of
ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The  Y2K vulnerabilities
recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian
communications depends, are also cause for deep concern.

If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched
within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to
launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other
errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated.

This  has already been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire'
for its missile forces from minutes to days.

The United States is making a serious error in failing to consider
de-alerting.  Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over the
Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing
unthinkable consequences.

The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as
nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert.  This will continue to be so
after the immmediate Y2K 'rollover' period.

In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces
off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces.

(SIGNED)
etc.

2) SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV
(Please customise and shorten)

PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN, IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,
[phone],

Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin,

I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures
in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an
accidental nuclear war.

I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously
enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado.
However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into
operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days
will make it useless.

This facility is however, essential to the security of the world, and
should continue to operate indefinitely.

I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in
six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any
sort arose over the Y2K rollover period.

I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or
Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of
launching a nuclear attack.

With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500
missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this
must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any
other time.

The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call
civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could
possibly mean the end of all life.

I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear
forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to
launch. The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this.

The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to
de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in
which the UK has placed its weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was
strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the
Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust
between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's
and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General
Assembly. It has also been recommended by a resolution specifically on the
subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First
Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the
subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and
20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European
Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177
put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for
it.

In this context I am particularly concerned that statements have been made
in which the threat of nuclear weapons has been raised, and that new
missiles have been deployed and placed on alert status.

As what is at stake is potentially the survival of the entire planet, no
considerations, even the highest considerations of national security, can
take priority.

The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe
is so great, that  de-alerting of nuclear forces in the face of the Y2K
computer problem and the long-term possibility of false alerts must take
precedence over all other considerations of political and national security.

(Signed)
etc.

John Hallam
Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord Street, Newtown, NSW, Australia, 2042
Fax [phone]  ph (61)(2)9517-3903
[e-mail]
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html





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------------------------------

Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 12:56:56 -0500
From: ASlater <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers

Dear All,
Just for the record, I presented the proposal to the Board of the NGO
Committee
on Disarmament on December 14th (about 15 members were there) after receiving
the support of the Abolition 2000 Coordinating Committee and after it had been
circulated to the Abolition Global Council.  The proposal was first made at
the
Hague Appeal for Peace, at an INESAP panel and can be seen in the INESAP
Bulletin of August 1999. We discussed it in Russia at the Abolition 2000
Meeting in St. Petersburg in June. I also discussed it in Vancouver at the
Simons Foundation Strategy Conference and received positive feedback.  Rebecca
Johnson of Acronym thought it was "brilliant" and Sharon Riggles of CSED
thought I should try to go ahead with it too when I spoke to them about it
this
fall during Disarmament Week.  Cora Weiss said she would help with her
contacts
through the Hague Appeal for Peace. GRACE has a fund to make this happen and I
thought it would be a good use of our resources to bring the NPT to the
attention of the US public, where nuclear disarmament is most stuck, by making
it a mediagenic event. Rebecca suggested, in light of the process that had
been
established by the NGO Committee on Disarmament, that NGOs be invited to do
briefing papers for the public figures in order to maintain the high
quality of
their involvement and participation that had been established in the prepcom
process over the past 3 years.

With all the positive feedback I received, I brought the proposal to the NGO
Committee on Disarmament where it was discussed and voted on.  The proposal
was
approved without dissent, to send a letter from the NGO Committee inviting
prominent speakers among NGOs and to invite briefing papers from NGOs who had
participated in the past. It was agreed that the letter had to go out before
the New Year as it was already rather late to schedule some of our prospective
invitees. On December 15th I delivered a draft letter to the Chair of the
Committee, Vernon Nichols, and left it under his door.  I also communicated by
email with the subcommittee who had volunteered to whittle down the list of
prospective invitees.  The subcommittee was Dorrie Weiss, Myrna Pena, Ann
Lakhdir and myself.  I shared by email the draft letter and all communications
I had received about the proposal with the sub-committee--having posted a
second request to the abolition caucus for suggested speakers, after Roger
Smith posted his report of what had transpired on December 14.

I don't think the idea is, as Ann suggests, "unrealistic".  What was
unrealistic was to believe that after the NGO Board voted on something, they
would actually stick to it.  It's still a good idea and I hope someone can
make
it happen.

I urge you to reflect on Ann Lakhdir comment that "I have already talked with
some people in the UN, who are far from enthusiastic about invitations to
Gorbachev and Carter."  Does the UN have a say on who NGOs can invite to speak
at their NGO sessions?  Who at the UN?  Carter and Gorbachev were two names on
the list to which no one raised objection since last May when they were first
proposed at the Hague. (I am re-posting the proposed speakers, amended with
suggestions from the caucus.)

On the evening of the 15th, I became aware of the possibility raised by Ann as
a reason to delay action, that the date for the speakers might change and
spoke
with Stephanie Fraser, Felicity Hill and Cora Weiss about couching the letter
from the NGO Committee in more general terms but giving the speakers a
heads up
about the approximate time the NGO session would occur. We also discussed
doing
more individualized follow-up letters from personal contacts of the invitees.
The undertainty of the date is not an obstacle to beginning the invitation
process.  I also spoke to Tamara Malenova who works for the Disarmament
Secretariat who said a decision could possibly be made in January.  She asked
me to write a letter to the Secretariat informing them of our plans which I
told her should come not from me but from the NGO Committee on Disarmament.
But alas, the next thing I knew there was backtracking on the vote that took
place, and Ann informed me we would have to wait for next month's NGO Board
meeting to see whether the proposal would move forward. If we wait until after
next month's NGO Board meeting, we will not be able to forward our letter to
the Disarmament Secretariat before they meet with the new Chair of the NPT
from
Algeria.

As I wrote in August, for the INESAP Bulletin, "During the 2000 Review we must
put the spotlight on the review conference.  We should begin now to invite the
most renowned world figures to stand for abolition before the delegates in
2000....The 2000 Review should be a mass media event."   With the saber
rattling from Russia, the US attempt to abrogate the ABM treaty, two new
announced nuclear powers on the scene since the 95 Review, and the defeat of
the CTBT in the US Senate, bold measures are called for.  Expert NGOs now know
the ropes around the UN.  They know how to get their materials in to the
delegates early.  A number of us believe that there's no need for them to
present their material orally to the delegates, as was done at the last three
PrepComs. GRACE has offered to provide mailing labels to any NGO who wishes to
mail to the UN missions. The critical need this year is to alert US public
opinion that the NPT is happening and create a groundswell for nuclear
disarmament.  In other words, NPT should become a household word like WTO.
 By
organizing a session of world leaders, public figures, filling in with moving
downwinders, hibakusha, eloquent indigenous leaders and other victims of the
toxic legacy of the nuclear age we could focus world attention on the
precarious state of the NPT and the need for the nuclear weapons states to
fulfill their Article VI obligations and begin negotiations on a treaty to
eliminate nuclear weapons.  In response to Oliver Meier's posting, it's not
the
credibility of the NGOs that s at stake here, but the credibility of the
nuclear weapons states who continue to cling to the rusty cold war doctrine of
deterrence.

I don't know how what process we can use to arrive at a consensus on this
process as Roger Smith suggests is needed, other than the vote that was
already
taken at the NGO Committee.  The NGOs described as having a "stake in the
process" are laced with "arms controllers" supporting the hegemony of the
nuclear weapons states and the "ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons."
Their goal appears to be non-proliferation, not abolition. In any event, upon
reconsideration, if a consensus does develop on the need to make the NPT
newsworthy by using world leaders, public figures and eloquent downwinders
(taking a leaf from the land mines campaign which moved the world by showing
the human face of suffering)to draw attention to the precarious state of the
world and the NPT itself, and should a consensus develop with adequate time to
notify prominent speakers, and prepare a proper public relations campaign in
favor of nuclear abolition, GRACE would revisit its offer to provide funds to
make it happen.

Let's all think about this for the New Year.  If we don't get blown up by
nuclear power plants or mixed messages from computers tracking nuclear weapons
on hair trigger alert, maybe we can give profound thanks to God that we still
have what might be our last chance to save the world from nuclear disaster and
the beginning of a new nuclear arms race on earth and in the heavens.  With
all
best wishes and hopes for a better Century than the one we've almost just come
through.  Peace,
Alice Slater
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE)
15 East 26th Street, Room 915
New York, NY 10010
tel:  [phone]
fax:  [phone]
email:  [e-mail]
http://www.gracelinks.org

GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty to
eliminate nuclear weapons.

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 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
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------------------------------

Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 13:11:51 -0500
From: ASlater <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers

Dear Friends,
Here's the list of proposed invitees, collected by email, meetings, etc.
John Burroughs pointed out that elected officials and royalty should not be
eligible to represent civil society and if you agree, that would help us to
whittle the list down.  There are seven people in that category: Clark,
Roche, Woolsey, Markey, Noor, Talal, Charles.  Hope we can develop a
process for decision making--but in any event you now have all the info
that I have.  Peace, Alice Slater


Oscar Arias
Archbishop Tutu
Jose Ramos Horta
Mikhail Gorbachev
Thich Nhat Hanh
Nelson Mandela
Graciela Machel
Mairead Corrigan Maguire
Grace Thorpe
Oren Lyons
Joseph Rotblat
Ted Taylor
Jimmy Carter
Arundhati Roy
Helen Caldicott
Prince Charles
Paul Newman
Michael Douglas
Joanne Woodward
Martin Sheen
Warren Beatty
Susan Sarandon
Meryl Streep
Lee Butler
Admiral Ramdas
Robert McNamara
Queen Noor
Judge Weermanty
Jonathan Schell
Lech Walesca
Jodi Williams
Marianne Willianson
Alan Cranston
Oprah Winfrey
Barbara Streisand
Walter Cronkite
Ted Turner
Pierce Brosnahan
Maya Angelou
Lynne Woolsey
Ed Markey
Stanisfield Turner
The Baldwin Family
Mayor of Hiroshima
Mayor of Nagasaki
Amartya Sen
Douglas Roche
Helen Clark
Rob Green
Jacqui Katona
Winona la Duke
Seamus Heaney
Wole Solinka
Miyoko Matsubara



Alice Slater
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE)
15 East 26th Street, Room 915
New York, NY 10010
tel:  [phone]
fax:  [phone]
email:  [e-mail]
http://www.gracelinks.org

GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty to
eliminate nuclear weapons.

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 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
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------------------------------

Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 14:18:25 -0500
From: WAND <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers etc

I forwarded your message, etc. to our NGO delegate, Sayre Sheldon.

Happy New Year, Alice, and thank you for all that you do!


Susan






<paraindent><param>left,left,left,left,left,left</param>*****************************************

</paraindent>

Susan Shaer, Executive Director

WAND, Women's Action for New Directions

691 Massachusetts Avenue

Arlington, MA  02476

781-643-6740

fax [phone]

<<http://www.wand.org>


<italic>Mission:  To empower women to act politically to reduce
militarism and violence and to redirect excessive military spending to
human and environmental needs.


WAND is the only national peace organization linking women legislators
across the country with local women activists as well as women in
Congress in order to address issues of militarism, violence, and human
needs.</italic>

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 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
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------------------------------

Date: Mon, 27 Dec 1999 15:15:06 -0500
From: ASlater <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: (abolition-usa) Re: Inviting NPT speakers etc

Thanks Susan--Happy New Millenium to you too.  Love, Alice

At 01:18 PM 12/27/1999 -0500, you wrote:
>I forwarded your message, etc. to our NGO delegate, Sayre Sheldon.
>Happy New Year, Alice, and thank you for all that you do!
>
>Susan
>
>
>
>
>
>*****************************************
>
>
>Susan Shaer, Executive Director
>WAND, Women's Action for New Directions
>691 Massachusetts Avenue
>Arlington, MA  02476
>781-643-6740
>fax [phone]
><http://www.wand.org>
>
>Mission:  To empower women to act politically to reduce militarism and
>violence and to redirect excessive military spending to human and
>environmental needs.
>
>WAND is the only national peace organization linking women legislators
>across the country with local women activists as well as women in Congress
>in order to address issues of militarism, violence, and human needs.
>-  To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to
>"[e-mail]"  with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of
>the message.  For information on digests or retrieving files and old
>messages send  "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your
>message.
>
Alice Slater
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE)
15 East 26th Street, Room 915
New York, NY 10010
tel:  [phone]
fax:  [phone]
email:  [e-mail]
http://www.gracelinks.org

GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty to
eliminate nuclear weapons.

- -
 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
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------------------------------

Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 18:21:57 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Rocket experts fear false signal from Kremlin

December 27, 1999

 Rocket experts fear false
 signal from Kremlin

 By Rowan Scarborough
 THE WASHINGTON TIMES
(front page)


 As the century changes on Dec. 31, a
 computer-generated false signal could send rocketeers
 on quickly paced launch procedures for Russia's 756
 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

 Russia's deteriorating nuclear force is causing some experts
 to worry that a year-2000 computer glitch could spawn a
 false signal from early warning radars or satellites that the
 country is under attack.
Bruce Blair, a Brookings Institution analyst and leading
 authority on Russia's sprawling atomic arsenal, said the
 Strategic Rocket Force operates on a hair-trigger "launch on
 warning" doctrine.
As the century changes on Dec. 31, a
 computer-generated false signal could send rocketeers on
 quickly paced launch procedures for Russia's 756
 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
"They have about 2,000 weapons they can fire at the
 United States on a moment's notice, and the main option for
 firing them is 'launch on warning' at a time when their early
 warning network is deteriorating badly and at a time when
 they're suspicious of the West," said Mr. Blair, who as an Air
 Force officer in the 1970s manned a U.S. Minuteman missile
 silo.
Asked the odds of a false signal triggering an ICBM
 launch, Mr. Blair said, "It's clear that the likelihood of such an
 event is higher as a result of Y2K than it would otherwise. . .
 . [But] this should in all likelihood be a case of fail safe and
 not fail deadly."
The Pentagon, however, says there is no chance for a
 deadly miscalculation. The department has gone to
 extraordinary lengths diplomatically and financially to make
 sure New Year's Eve does not turn into a real-life "The Day
 After."
Its most visible guard against a calamity is the Center for
 Year 2000 Strategic Stability at Peterson Air Force Base,
 Colo. There, beginning Dec. 30, Russian and American
 officers will sit side by side at computer screens 24-hours a
 day. Their job: Monitor data from U.S. Space Command
 sensors, primarily long-range radars and satellites that detect
 the heat of a rocket blastoff.
"We really do not worry about Russia, missiles going off,
 or early-warning systems getting false reports or anything
 like that," said Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre. "We're
 confident that will not be the case."
Added Peter Verga, a Pentagon policy-maker, "If an early
 warning radar in Russia fails, we think it would be because
 the power went out, which is a local time-zone problem, and
 not because there's a fundamental problem within the
 system."
The department, which has spent $3.6 billion on
 year-2000 compliance, has invested $10 million in Russian
 weapons computers to ensure they don't misread the date
 rollover to 2000. Technicians also ridded the
 Moscow-Washington "hot line" of any potential bugs and
 installed backup telephone connections.
At Peterson, a missile launch anywhere in the world will
 be picked up by Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites
 and then tracked by radars.
Inside the Peterson center, officers will know the launch
 location and time, whether the rocket is an ICBM or space
 vehicle, the "threat fan" of potential targets and projected
 impact point.
The center has communications links to Moscow's
 warning center so Russian officers in the United States can
 verify any launch activity detected back home.
Space Command believes that by 4 p.m. (ET) Dec. 31 =97
 the millennium rollover in Moscow =97 officials will know if
 Russia's warning system is glitch-free.
U.S. military forces are on Greenwich Mean Time and
 will enter the new century at 7 p.m. (ET).
"Once we get through the Moscow rollover, we'll have a
 very good indication of how Moscow has gotten through the
 rollover," said Maj. Perry Nouis, a spokesman for the U.S.
 Space Command. "We think it's going to be a quiet night for
 everybody. That's what our hope is."
Steven Zaloga, an expert on Russian strategic weapons
 and an aerospace consultant, said Moscow lost a large share
 of its ICBM-tracking radars with the breakaway of old Soviet
 republics. For example, Latvia recently shut down the radar
 on its soil.
Russia's other mechanism for monitoring U.S. missiles,
 the system of orbiting Oko infrared satellites, has wide gaps
 in coverage because Moscow lacks the money to replace
 them.
"Their early warning system has so many gaps and
 problems with it, one would hope they have the sense to
 appreciate that they may get some kind of false readings,"
 Mr. Zaloga said.
"Their command-and-control network is in very, very bad
 shape," he added.
"They don't have reliable missile early warning, which is
 really a critical element of command and control. The
 problem I see with the Russian government, it has a very
 unsophisticated and naive view of nuclear forces. The
 Russian military over the years has held a monopoly on
 distribution of information on nuclear forces."
Still, Mr. Zaloga concluded that the Russians exercise
 sufficient human control in Moscow to head off any rash
 decisions on New Year's Eve.
He said that in the early 1980s, shortly after the first Oko
 went into space, a satellite sent back a false-positive based on
 a heat signature from the sun appearing on the horizon.
 Fortunately, he said, a Russian officer dismissed the signal as
 bogus and did not initiate alert procedures.
"These missiles don't go off automatically," Mr. Zaloga
 said. "There is a human element in the Russian
 command-and-control system."
One thing is clear. Moscow and Washington approach the
 date switch amid worsening relations and mistrust.
Russia is particularly jittery over three developments:
 NATO expansion to its old Soviet borders; the air war on
 Serbia that showed the power and reach of American
 strategic bombers; and the U.S. intention to build a national
 defense against ballistic missiles.
Meanwhile, Washington has protested Russia's brutal
 military crackdown in Chechnya and is growing concerned
 over Moscow's increasingly bellicose statements on nuclear
 weapons.
In Beijing earlier this month, Russian President Boris
 Yeltsin said President Clinton "has forgotten Russia is a great
 power that possesses a nuclear arsenal."
Last week, Col. Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, chief of the
 country's Strategic Rocket Force, was quoted as saying,
 "Russia, for objective reasons, is forced to lower the
 threshold for using nuclear weapons. . . . "
Mr. Blair sees the acid atmosphere as possibly leading to
 nuclear miscalculation. He also sees shortfalls in Pentagon
 planning.
=46or example, at the Peterson year-2000 center, Russian
 officers will not see the raw data that pours into the
 top-secret national warning center at Cheyenne Mountain 12
 miles away. Instead, they will view processed signals.
The arrangement raises a dicey scenario. If Moscow's
 system says it is under attack, who do the Russians believe?
 Their own data or assurances from an American air base?
"The sole point of contact between the two militaries will
 be here at Peterson to make sure that no one in either country
 operates in a vacuum," Maj. Nouis said.
Said Mr. Blair, "As far as I can tell, we have fixed the
 Y2K problems with our nuclear forces. The Russians have
 not. They have admitted they are behind schedule. . . . This
 Y2K center is just a Band-Aid that diverts attention from the
 deeper problem of deterioration of Russian control over their
 nuclear arsenal"
Peter Pry's book, "War Scare: Russia and America on the
 Nuclear Brink," documents the poor state of the old Soviet
 arsenal. One would expect him to sound the alarm over the
 looming 2000 date change. But he's not.
"A lot of people on the left and right have really hyped the
 Y2K thing for different ulterior motives," Mr. Pry said. "I
 think it's been much exaggerated, the dangers of an electronic
 glitch, something going radically wrong with their computer
 system . . . It's hard for me to imagine a false attack
 happening."
Mr. Pry, a staffer on the House Armed Services
 Committee, said one prospect does worry him: how will the
 Russian generals react if an early-warning radar blacks out?
"That could be dangerous," he said. "Then you have the
 general staff wondering, why did it black out. 'Is this the first
 wave of attack?' "
Mr. Pry said year-2000 pessimists point to a 1995
 incident as evidence of how Russia's weakening nuclear
 control could produce a fatal mistake.
In January of that year, Russian nuclear forces went on
 alert after the launch of a Norwegian weather rocket. Some
 Russians initially misinterpreted the flight as a U.S. submarine
 ballistic missile fired as the first stage of an all-out attack.
But rather than viewing the incident as a precursor to
 year-2000, Mr. Pry said it is a better indication of Russian
 mistrust toward the West.
"There was no mechanical failure or computer failure,"
 said the ex-CIA analyst. "It was a human failure."



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------------------------------

Date: Tue, 28 Dec 1999 18:42:27 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Will there still be 5000 warheads on alert after Dec 31?

If you read the item on the front page of the Washington Post, recently
posted to the various lists, you will surely want to let US Secretary of
Defence Willam S. Cohen, and Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton know how you
feel about having 5000 nuclear weapons on hairtrigger alert over the Y2K
rollover.

And if as is to be hoped, nothing at all happens over the year end
rollover, there will STILL be 5000 nuclear warheads on hairtrigger alert.

The oldest, largest, most complex, and previously least Y2K compliant
computer systems in the world perform command, communications, control, and
intelligence for nuclear weapons systems, and  even without Y2K there have
been a series of frightening near- misses.

These systems will only experience the rollover some 9-18 hours after
Australia does.
So new years day could be nervous, at least for those of us who think of
such things.

Sure, the Pentagon say they have spent $3.6billion to make their nuclear
combat command, communication, and control systems Y2K compliant.

Sure, the US and Russia have established a joint Y2K 'Strategic Stability
Centre' next to the Cheyyenne Mountain Complex in Colorado.

And it is important - indeed crucial - that they have done this.

However, we hope they have by now managed to fix the hotlines set up during
the cold war, and discovered to be non Y2K compliant in September.

If nuclear weapons could not be immediately launched, then not only over
the nervous Y2K rollover period, when US and Russian officers are going to
EXPECT false alerts, blank screens, and communication blackouts, but at any
other time when also false alerts have happened, decision makers would
never be forced into the situation in which they have to decide whether to
blow up the world in five minutes, perhaps at 3am in the morning when very
much the worse for wear after new years drinkies.

The best  gift Clinton or Yeltsin can give the world is to do as two
resolutions passed by the United Nations General Assembly a year ago with
massive majorities, and another two passed this year with massive
majorities, two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate and  one
resolution passed unanimously by the European Parliament have reccommended
- - to take nuclear weapons off hairtrigger alert and place them in a status
in which launch on warning is no longer possible.

A letter signed by 500 global environmental organisations, arms control
groups, religious bodies, NGOs, and Parliamentarians asking for nuclear
weapons to be taken off alert for the new year was faxed to Yeltsin and
Clinton some days ago. It will be faxed again on 29th or 30th.

Clinton, Cohen, and Yeltsin have now been recieving an awful lot of faxes
and phonecalls asking them to take missiles off alert.

Ask President Clinton, President Yeltsin, and their secretaries and
ministers for defence (Cohen and Sergeyev) to do this.

If you have access to a fax machine, a single page A4 fax even to the
Kremlin should cost you round a dollar. (public fax facilities charge an
arm and a leg so don't bother with them).

The best fax is handwritten, not typed.

Do it now - It's Christmas Eve tomorrow (or it is here in Sydney).

You can fax for free on: http://www.fax4free.com

You can fax Clinton on [phone]
You can fax US defence secy Cohen on 1-703-695-1149
You can fax Yeltsin and Sergeyev on [phone].

There are sample letters below.
You should shorten them and use your own words.
You don't need to write anything near as long as this. Use what you want of
these sample letters in your own way, and preferably, handwrite don't type.


1) SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON
(Please customise and shorten)

TO:
WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE, [phone],

PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON,  WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US,  [phone],
[phone].

Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen,

I am writing  to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off
'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period, to ask
that any false alarms or 'near misses' over the Y2K rollover and at any
other time be reported publicly, and to ask that the Y2K strategic
stability centre's operations be extended preferably indefinitely but at
least till May.

There is little time to act, and an immediate decision to place nuclear
weapons in a status in which immediate launch is impossible is essential to
ensure global stability.

As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and
President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear
weapons.

De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra
Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum,  as a way to develop
strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also
been incorporated into last year's  and  this years text of the New Agenda
Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a
resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General
Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers.
In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the
Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been
clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of
congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most
recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it.

De-Alerting and the establishment of the Y2K strategic stability centre are
not in competition with each other.  Indeed, we urge strongly that the
strategic stability centres operations be extended indefinitely.

Reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early
warning centers and de-alerting are all  vital to the reduction of tension
and the establishment of strategic stability.

This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the
millennium date change (Y2K).

As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in
the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems.

The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure
everything has been fixed until well into the new year.

Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K
problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian
computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will
experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period.

Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed
the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to
include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental
launch.

The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is
certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one, but it does
not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of nuclear
weapons.

The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware,
to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the
rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless.

Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of
ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The  Y2K vulnerabilities
recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian
communications depends, are also cause for deep concern.

If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched
within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to
launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other
errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated.

This  has already been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire'
for its missile forces from minutes to days.

The United States is making a serious error in failing to consider
de-alerting.  Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over the
Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing
unthinkable consequences.

The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as
nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert.  This will continue to be so
after the immmediate Y2K 'rollover' period.

In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces
off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces.

(SIGNED)
etc.

2) SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV
(Please customise and shorten)

PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN, IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,
[phone],

Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin,

I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures
in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an
accidental nuclear war.

I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously
enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado.
However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into
operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days
will make it useless.

This facility is however, essential to the security of the world, and
should continue to operate indefinitely.

I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in
six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any
sort arose over the Y2K rollover period.

I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or
Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of
launching a nuclear attack.

With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500
missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this
must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any
other time.

The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call
civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could
possibly mean the end of all life.

I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear
forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to
launch. The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this.

The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to
de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in
which the UK has placed its weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was
strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the
Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust
between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's
and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General
Assembly. It has also been recommended by a resolution specifically on the
subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First
Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the
subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and
20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European
Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177
put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for
it.

In this context I am particularly concerned that statements have been made
in which the threat of nuclear weapons has been raised, and that new
missiles have been deployed and placed on alert status.

As what is at stake is potentially the survival of the entire planet, no
considerations, even the highest considerations of national security, can
take priority.

The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe
is so great, that  de-alerting of nuclear forces in the face of the Y2K
computer problem and the long-term possibility of false alerts must take
precedence over all other considerations of political and national security.

(Signed)
etc.

John Hallam
Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord Street, Newtown, NSW, Australia, 2042
Fax [phone]  ph (61)(2)9517-3903
[e-mail]
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html





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------------------------------

End of abolition-usa-digest V1 #241
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