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abolition-usa-digest    Tuesday, December 21 1999    Volume 01 : Number 238




----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Mon, 20 Dec 1999 09:54:22 EST
From: [e-mail]
Subject: (abolition-usa) Registering for Millennium Forum

To register and apply to participate for the Millennium Forum, go to
http://www.millenniumforum.org/html/Mfreg.html
There you will find a link to a printable registration form. In the
materials handed out at the consultation this week at the UN in NY, it is
stated that applications should be submitted as soon as possible and no
later than 1 February 2000.

The number of civil society groups participating will be limited by the
space available to 1400 persons from around the world. Materials from the
consultation say there are the following tentative quotas: Africa 250
persons; Asia and the Pacific 200; Europe and North America 250; West Asia
100; Latin America and the Caribbean 200; international and regional NGOs
250. I understand an effort will be made to help fund participants from the
"South" (might include some groups in North America); however, the
Millennium Forum has virtually no money right now, so that remains to be seen.

The Millennium Forum is a civil society process culminating in a meeting to
be held in New York at the United Nations, hosted by UN Department of Public
Information and NGOs, 22-26 May 2000. This in turn is intended to influence
the Millennium Summit of heads of state to be held in New York September
6-9, 2000, as well as the Millennium session of the General Assembly in
autumn 2000. Those interested in participating should look at
www.millenniumforum.org and also www.un.org/millennium

            John Burroughs, Executive Director
            Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy
            211 E. 43d St., Suite 1204
            New York, New York 10017 USA
            tel: [phone] fax: [phone]
            e-mail: [e-mail]
            website: www.lcnp.org
            Part of the Abolition 2000 Global
            Network to Eliminate Nuclear Weapons

- -
 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
 "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your message.

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 20 Dec 1999 19:02:43 -0800
From: Nuclear Age Peace Foundation <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Countdown to the NPT

Dear Friends and Activists,

Only 126 days remain until the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review and
Extension Conference, which begins on April 24, 2000.  At the Hague Appeal
for Peace, we set a goal of having 2000 organizations by the time of the
NPT.   Currently, the Network is comprised of 1,415 organizations in 90
countries and 239 Municipalities have endorsed the Abolition 2000 Municipal
Resolution.  We are seeking your support to help us reach our goal.  Please
join me in a committment to enroll as many organizations as possible
between now and the NPT Conference    Thank you for your continued support
of Abolition 2000 and a world free from the threat of Nuclear Weapons.

Yours In Peace,
Carah


Carah Lynn Ong
Coordinator, Abolition 2000
1187 Coast Village Road PMB 121, Suite 1
Santa Barbara CA 93108

Phone [phone]  FAX[phone]
Email: [e-mail]
Website http://www.abolition2000.org


Join the Abolition-USA or Abolition-Global Caucus list serve to regularly
receive updates about the Abolition movement.  Both caucus' also provide a
forum for conversation on nuclear-related issues as well as they are used
to post important articles and information pertaining to nuclear abolition.



To subscribe to the Abolition Global Caucus, please do one of the following:

1. Send a message to the list moderator at [e-mail]

2. Visit the Abolition-caucus website at:
Http://www.egroups.com/list/abolition-caucus/ and submit a membership form.

3. Visit the Abolition 2000 website and submit a membership form.

4. Send an e-mail to:  [e-mail]  (leave the
subject line and body of the message blank).


To post a message to the Abolition Global Caucus, send your message to:

[e-mail]


To subscribe to the Abolition-USA listerve, send a message (with no
subject) to:
[e-mail]
In the body of the message, write:
"subscribe abolition-usa" (do not include quotation marks)

To post a message to the Abolition-USA list, mail your message to:
 [e-mail]



- -
 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
 "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your message.

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 16:36:29 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) 10 DAYS TO MAYBE/MAYBE NOT THE DEADLIEST GAMBLE IN HISTORY - YOU CAN HELP!

PLEASE READ & DO WHAT YOU CAN TO HELP, PASS ON, etc.
If you need to shorten or customise this, just do so.

- -------------------------------------------
PLEASE FORWARD THIS TO EVERYONE YOU CAN!

The Most Important issue for the next 10 days: You can help!

The next ten days will see what may or may not turn out to have been the
deadliest gamble in history as 5,600 nuclear warheads on 1200 missiles with
gyros spinning ready to be launched in minutes experience the Y2K rollover.

A sufficiently serious misunderstanding will mean, basically, the end of
the world.

On the other hand, with luck, nothing at all may happen.

Many of you are already working on a variety of environmental, antinuclear,
and weapons issues.
You may react to this by saying 'I'm already doing my bit for the planet'.

You may even be working on something that is much more important in the
long run.

This will only occupy your attention for the next 10 (5 really,) days. But
it is possibly the single most important short term issue we could possibly
face.  There's just a chance that if the worst happens, there won't BE any
long run.

What you do over the next 7 days or so could possibly affect whether we
will be around to campaign on anything else.

But if there turns out to have been no problem what you do will still be
very helpful.

It will have suceeded to make taking nuke weapons systems off alert into a
much bigger issue.

At the end of the next 10 days, the largest, oldest, most complex, most
deeply interconnected, and previously least Y2K-compliant computer command
and control systems in the world will experience Y2K.

These are of course, the systems that perform command, control,
communications, and monitoring for nuclear weapons systems.

There are some 2,000 warheads in 500 land-based minuteman ICBMs in the US,
and some 3,600 warheads in 700 land- based ICBMs in Russia, on permanent 24
hour hairtrigger alert, with gyros spinning ready for launch at a moments
notice. That doesn't count warheads in SLBMs or bombers.

The launch of all 5,600 warheads could end all human life, would certainly
end civilisation, and would do irreparable and very profound damage to the
entire web of life on earth.

It could send us back to the proterozoic, depending whose estimates you
believe.

The Pentagon has spent over $3.6 billion and it says it is totally confident
its systems will cope. The Russians say their control systems for their
nuclear weapons do not utilise the date and will cope. Privately however,
US officers worry about blank screens, false data, and communications
blackouts.

The Canberra Commission reccommended as far back as 1996 that as a first
step toward nuclear abolition, nuclear weapons be taken off hairtrigger
alert. The Tokyo Forum has also called for this to be done.

Two UN resolutions passed this year and another two passed this year have
called for de-alerting.

Two resolutions of the Australian Senate and a resolution passed
unanimously by the European Parliament have called for nuclear weapons to
be taken off alert over the Y2K rollover.

Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin and their Secretaries of Defence have been
the recipients of a very large number of letters from NGOs all round the
world calling for nuclear weapons to be taken off alert.

So far there is no indication that they will do this.

Instead, Yeltsin has threatened the US, saying they should remember that
Russia has a large nuclear arsenal and has deployed ten of the latest
Topol-M missiles on full alert.

Nonetheless, there are indications that the campaign has  been noticed.

And what will actually happen on the night of the rollover has implications
that are about as ultimate as they could be.

Hopefully nothing at all will happen.  If nothing happens we will still be
here.

However, what will determine the future of us all and of all life is
exactly how a possible false alert will be dealt with.

That is why it is essential for the Pentagon and the Kremlin to hear our
voices over the next 11 days.

*That is why I am asking everybody I can to place the Y2K de-alert campaign
at the top of their priority lists for the next 10 (or more realistically
the next 7) days.*

There are lots of campaigns that are important.  There are lots of
campaigns that have much more profound long term implications than this one.

But we have to get through the Dec 31/Jan 1 rollover at the very least. Its
all a bit pointless if we accidentally make the planet uninhabitable by a
simple and utterly mindless computer glitch.

And of course it has been pointed out to me that there may be Y2K-related
glitches in command and control systems for months or even years afterwards.

The danger from all of this would disappear almost completely of course if
the 5.600 weapons now on 24 hour hairtrigger alert in the US and Russia
(land - based ICBMs only) were taken off alert.

With luck all this will prove to have been without foundation.  But even
without Y2K, there have been a series of hair-raising near-misses.

What we are dealing with is a classic 'high-consequence, low-probability'
event.

But there is nothing to lose. A massive manifestation of global concern,
focused on the Kremlin and the Pentagon is the best shot we have at giving
the world the best chance of getting through the new year.
And whatever happens on 31/12, this campaign puts 'de-alerting' on the map
as an all-round good idea.

And with luck nothing whatsoever will happen, and we'll all be wrong - till
the next hair-raising near miss.

I am asking everyone to consider whether the possible risk and the possible
stakes over the rollover, even if the risk turns out to be very small
indeed, don't warrant your concerted effort for at least the next week, so
that we are sure we will be around for those high- priority, long - term,
deeper implication, campaigns.

Think about it. But not for too long.  There are only 11 days and you need
to act as soon as possible.

Tell US Defence Secretary Cohen, President Clinton, and the Kremlin that we
do not need to have 5,600 warheads on 24 hour a day ready-to launch status.

Tell them we want to know every time there is a false alarm or a near miss.

Ask them to extend the operational period of the joint Y2K strategic
stability centre at least through May, and preferably indefinitely.

The fax number of US Defence Secretary William Cohen is [phone]
Bill Clinton's fax is [phone]
The Kremlin fax is [phone]

The cost of a single page A4 fax to Russia, as counted on a telephone bill
from Australia is $1.00-$1.50, but public fax agencies charge an arm and a
leg just to dial the number.

You can fax for free on  http://www.fax4free.com

(But the best fax is HANDWRITTEN).

*If you are an organisation* and want to sign a large sign-on letter,
please sign the letter to Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton that is being
periodicaly faxed to them on
 http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html

Sample letters to Cohen/Clinton and to Russian Defence Minister Sergeyev
are below.

Please customise and abbreviate.

And have fun while saving the planet from (possibly) the apocalypse!

I wish us all luck, and that nothing happens.


1) SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON
(Please customise and shorten)

TO:
WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE, [phone],

PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON,  WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US,  [phone],
[phone].

Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen,

I am writing  to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off
'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period, to ask
that any false alarms or 'near misses' over the Y2K rollover and at any
other time be reported publicly, and to ask that the Y2K strategic
stability centre's operations be extended preferably indefinitely but at
least till May.

There is little time to act, and an immediate decision to place nuclear
weapons in a status in which immediate launch is impossible is essential to
ensure global stability.

As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and
President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear
weapons.

De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra
Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum,  as a way to develop
strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also
been incorporated into last year's  and  this years text of the New Agenda
Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a
resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General
Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers.
In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the
Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been
clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of
congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most
recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it.

De-Alerting and the establishment of the Y2K strategic stability centre are
not in competition with each other.  Indeed, we urge strongly that the
strategic stability centres operations be extended indefinitely.

Reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early
warning centers and de-alerting are all  vital to the reduction of tension
and the establishment of strategic stability.

This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the
millennium date change (Y2K).

As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in
the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems.

The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure
everything has been fixed until well into the new year.

Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K
problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian
computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will
experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period.

Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed
the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to
include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental
launch.

The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is
certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one, but it does
not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of nuclear
weapons.

The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware,
to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the
rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless.

Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of
ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The  Y2K vulnerabilities
recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian
communications depends, are also cause for deep concern.

If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched
within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to
launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other
errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated.

This  has already been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire'
for its missile forces from minutes to days.

The United States is making a serious error in failing to consider
de-alerting.  Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over the
Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing
unthinkable consequences.

The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as
nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert.  This will continue to be so
after the immmediate Y2K 'rollover' period.

In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces
off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces.

(SIGNED)
etc.

2) SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV
(Please customise and shorten)

PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN, IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,
[phone],

Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin,

I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures
in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an
accidental nuclear war.

I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously
enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado.
However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into
operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days
will make it useless.

This facility is however, essential to the security of the world, and
should continue to operate indefinitely.

I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in
six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any
sort arose over the Y2K rollover period.

I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or
Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of
launching a nuclear attack.

With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500
missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this
must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any
other time.

The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call
civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could
possibly mean the end of all life.

I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear
forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to
launch. The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this.

The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to
de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in
which the UK has placed its weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was
strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the
Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust
between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's
and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General
Assembly. It has also been recommended by a resolution specifically on the
subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First
Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the
subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and
20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European
Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177
put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for
it.

In this context I am particularly concerned that statements have been made
in which the threat of nuclear weapons has been raised, and that new
missiles have been deployed and placed on alert status.

As what is at stake is potentially the survival of the entire planet, no
considerations, even the highest considerations of national security, can
take priority.

The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe
is so great, that  de-alerting of nuclear forces in the face of the Y2K
computer problem and the long-term possibility of false alerts must take
precedence over all other considerations of political and national security.

(Signed)
etc.

John Hallam
Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord Street, Newtown, NSW, Australia, 2042
Fax [phone]  ph (61)(2)9517-3903
[e-mail]
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html



- -
 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
 "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your message.

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 16:36:29 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) 10 DAYS TO MAYBE/MAYBE NOT THE DEADLIEST GAMBLE IN HISTORY - YOU CAN HELP!

PLEASE READ & DO WHAT YOU CAN TO HELP, PASS ON, etc.
If you need to shorten or customise this, just do so.

- -------------------------------------------
PLEASE FORWARD THIS TO EVERYONE YOU CAN!

The Most Important issue for the next 10 days: You can help!

The next ten days will see what may or may not turn out to have been the
deadliest gamble in history as 5,600 nuclear warheads on 1200 missiles with
gyros spinning ready to be launched in minutes experience the Y2K rollover.

A sufficiently serious misunderstanding will mean, basically, the end of
the world.

On the other hand, with luck, nothing at all may happen.

Many of you are already working on a variety of environmental, antinuclear,
and weapons issues.
You may react to this by saying 'I'm already doing my bit for the planet'.

You may even be working on something that is much more important in the
long run.

This will only occupy your attention for the next 10 (5 really,) days. But
it is possibly the single most important short term issue we could possibly
face.  There's just a chance that if the worst happens, there won't BE any
long run.

What you do over the next 7 days or so could possibly affect whether we
will be around to campaign on anything else.

But if there turns out to have been no problem what you do will still be
very helpful.

It will have suceeded to make taking nuke weapons systems off alert into a
much bigger issue.

At the end of the next 10 days, the largest, oldest, most complex, most
deeply interconnected, and previously least Y2K-compliant computer command
and control systems in the world will experience Y2K.

These are of course, the systems that perform command, control,
communications, and monitoring for nuclear weapons systems.

There are some 2,000 warheads in 500 land-based minuteman ICBMs in the US,
and some 3,600 warheads in 700 land- based ICBMs in Russia, on permanent 24
hour hairtrigger alert, with gyros spinning ready for launch at a moments
notice. That doesn't count warheads in SLBMs or bombers.

The launch of all 5,600 warheads could end all human life, would certainly
end civilisation, and would do irreparable and very profound damage to the
entire web of life on earth.

It could send us back to the proterozoic, depending whose estimates you
believe.

The Pentagon has spent over $3.6 billion and it says it is totally confident
its systems will cope. The Russians say their control systems for their
nuclear weapons do not utilise the date and will cope. Privately however,
US officers worry about blank screens, false data, and communications
blackouts.

The Canberra Commission reccommended as far back as 1996 that as a first
step toward nuclear abolition, nuclear weapons be taken off hairtrigger
alert. The Tokyo Forum has also called for this to be done.

Two UN resolutions passed this year and another two passed this year have
called for de-alerting.

Two resolutions of the Australian Senate and a resolution passed
unanimously by the European Parliament have called for nuclear weapons to
be taken off alert over the Y2K rollover.

Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin and their Secretaries of Defence have been
the recipients of a very large number of letters from NGOs all round the
world calling for nuclear weapons to be taken off alert.

So far there is no indication that they will do this.

Instead, Yeltsin has threatened the US, saying they should remember that
Russia has a large nuclear arsenal and has deployed ten of the latest
Topol-M missiles on full alert.

Nonetheless, there are indications that the campaign has  been noticed.

And what will actually happen on the night of the rollover has implications
that are about as ultimate as they could be.

Hopefully nothing at all will happen.  If nothing happens we will still be
here.

However, what will determine the future of us all and of all life is
exactly how a possible false alert will be dealt with.

That is why it is essential for the Pentagon and the Kremlin to hear our
voices over the next 11 days.

*That is why I am asking everybody I can to place the Y2K de-alert campaign
at the top of their priority lists for the next 10 (or more realistically
the next 7) days.*

There are lots of campaigns that are important.  There are lots of
campaigns that have much more profound long term implications than this one.

But we have to get through the Dec 31/Jan 1 rollover at the very least. Its
all a bit pointless if we accidentally make the planet uninhabitable by a
simple and utterly mindless computer glitch.

And of course it has been pointed out to me that there may be Y2K-related
glitches in command and control systems for months or even years afterwards.

The danger from all of this would disappear almost completely of course if
the 5.600 weapons now on 24 hour hairtrigger alert in the US and Russia
(land - based ICBMs only) were taken off alert.

With luck all this will prove to have been without foundation.  But even
without Y2K, there have been a series of hair-raising near-misses.

What we are dealing with is a classic 'high-consequence, low-probability'
event.

But there is nothing to lose. A massive manifestation of global concern,
focused on the Kremlin and the Pentagon is the best shot we have at giving
the world the best chance of getting through the new year.
And whatever happens on 31/12, this campaign puts 'de-alerting' on the map
as an all-round good idea.

And with luck nothing whatsoever will happen, and we'll all be wrong - till
the next hair-raising near miss.

I am asking everyone to consider whether the possible risk and the possible
stakes over the rollover, even if the risk turns out to be very small
indeed, don't warrant your concerted effort for at least the next week, so
that we are sure we will be around for those high- priority, long - term,
deeper implication, campaigns.

Think about it. But not for too long.  There are only 11 days and you need
to act as soon as possible.

Tell US Defence Secretary Cohen, President Clinton, and the Kremlin that we
do not need to have 5,600 warheads on 24 hour a day ready-to launch status.

Tell them we want to know every time there is a false alarm or a near miss.

Ask them to extend the operational period of the joint Y2K strategic
stability centre at least through May, and preferably indefinitely.

The fax number of US Defence Secretary William Cohen is [phone]
Bill Clinton's fax is [phone]
The Kremlin fax is [phone]

The cost of a single page A4 fax to Russia, as counted on a telephone bill
from Australia is $1.00-$1.50, but public fax agencies charge an arm and a
leg just to dial the number.

You can fax for free on  http://www.fax4free.com

(But the best fax is HANDWRITTEN).

*If you are an organisation* and want to sign a large sign-on letter,
please sign the letter to Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton that is being
periodicaly faxed to them on
 http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html

Sample letters to Cohen/Clinton and to Russian Defence Minister Sergeyev
are below.

Please customise and abbreviate.

And have fun while saving the planet from (possibly) the apocalypse!

I wish us all luck, and that nothing happens.


1) SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON
(Please customise and shorten)

TO:
WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE, [phone],

PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON,  WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US,  [phone],
[phone].

Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen,

I am writing  to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off
'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period, to ask
that any false alarms or 'near misses' over the Y2K rollover and at any
other time be reported publicly, and to ask that the Y2K strategic
stability centre's operations be extended preferably indefinitely but at
least till May.

There is little time to act, and an immediate decision to place nuclear
weapons in a status in which immediate launch is impossible is essential to
ensure global stability.

As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and
President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear
weapons.

De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra
Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum,  as a way to develop
strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also
been incorporated into last year's  and  this years text of the New Agenda
Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a
resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General
Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers.
In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the
Australian Senate on 12 August and 20 September, and finally it has been
clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of
congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most
recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for it.

De-Alerting and the establishment of the Y2K strategic stability centre are
not in competition with each other.  Indeed, we urge strongly that the
strategic stability centres operations be extended indefinitely.

Reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early
warning centers and de-alerting are all  vital to the reduction of tension
and the establishment of strategic stability.

This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the
millennium date change (Y2K).

As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in
the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems.

The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure
everything has been fixed until well into the new year.

Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K
problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian
computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will
experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period.

Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed
the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to
include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental
launch.

The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is
certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one, but it does
not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of nuclear
weapons.

The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware,
to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the
rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless.

Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of
ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The  Y2K vulnerabilities
recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian
communications depends, are also cause for deep concern.

If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched
within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to
launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other
errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated.

This  has already been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire'
for its missile forces from minutes to days.

The United States is making a serious error in failing to consider
de-alerting.  Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over the
Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing
unthinkable consequences.

The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as
nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert.  This will continue to be so
after the immmediate Y2K 'rollover' period.

In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces
off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces.

(SIGNED)
etc.

2) SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV
(Please customise and shorten)

PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN, IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,
[phone],

Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin,

I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures
in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an
accidental nuclear war.

I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously
enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado.
However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into
operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days
will make it useless.

This facility is however, essential to the security of the world, and
should continue to operate indefinitely.

I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in
six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any
sort arose over the Y2K rollover period.

I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or
Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of
launching a nuclear attack.

With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500
missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this
must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any
other time.

The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call
civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could
possibly mean the end of all life.

I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear
forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to
launch. The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this.

The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to
de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in
which the UK has placed its weapons. De-alerting of nuclear forces was
strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the
Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust
between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's
and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General
Assembly. It has also been recommended by a resolution specifically on the
subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First
Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the
subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and
20 September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European
Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177
put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkeley has asked for
it.

In this context I am particularly concerned that statements have been made
in which the threat of nuclear weapons has been raised, and that new
missiles have been deployed and placed on alert status.

As what is at stake is potentially the survival of the entire planet, no
considerations, even the highest considerations of national security, can
take priority.

The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe
is so great, that  de-alerting of nuclear forces in the face of the Y2K
computer problem and the long-term possibility of false alerts must take
precedence over all other considerations of political and national security.

(Signed)
etc.

John Hallam
Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord Street, Newtown, NSW, Australia, 2042
Fax [phone]  ph (61)(2)9517-3903
[e-mail]
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html


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------------------------------

Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 11:09:49 -0500
From: ASlater <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) 2000 by 2000

Dear Friends,
I am writing in support of Carah's request for your participation in the 2000
by 2000 Campaign.  At our annual Abolition 2000 Meeting in the Hague, we
agreed
to work hard for 2000 enrollees by the NPT in order to answer the question:
"Abolition 2000, don't you think you should change your name since you didn't
get your treaty negotiated by the year 2000?" (a goal we set in 1995 when we
adopted the Abolition Statement at the 1995 NPT Extension Conference.)  We
hope
to answer that we are now 2000 strong and WHERE'S OUR TREATY?!?  But to do
that
we need your help.  If every reader on this Abolition list serve would enroll
only one more organization we'd almost be there.

Please print out enrollment forms from www.abolition2000.org and take them
with
you to meetings, church, school.  JOIN OUR 2000 BY 2000 CAMPAIGN IN A
MEANINGFUL WAY.  Let us know of your enrollment successes.  Let's inspire each
other.  At the WTO meeting I enrolled 14 organizations--one from as far
away as
Guatemala.  Wherever you live, wherever you work, wherever you play, help
us to
maintain the integrity of the name of our Network.  Just because the nukeheads
didn't negotiate a treaty for us is no reason to surrender our name!!  Many
thanks for your help.  Alice Slater

At 09:02 PM 12/20/1999 -0500, [e-mail] wrote:
>Dear Friends and Activists,
>
>Only 126 days remain until the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review and
>Extension Conference, which begins on April 24, 2000.  At the Hague Appeal
>for Peace, we set a goal of having 2000 organizations by the time of the
>NPT.   Currently, the Network is comprised of 1,415 organizations in 90
>countries and 239 Municipalities have endorsed the Abolition 2000 Municipal
>Resolution.  We are seeking your support to help us reach our goal.  Please
>join me in a committment to enroll as many organizations as possible
>between now and the NPT Conference    Thank you for your continued support
>of Abolition 2000 and a world free from the threat of Nuclear Weapons.
>
>Yours In Peace,
>Carah
>
>
>Carah Lynn Ong
>Coordinator, Abolition 2000
>1187 Coast Village Road PMB 121, Suite 1
>Santa Barbara CA 93108
>
>Phone [phone]  FAX[phone]
>Email: [e-mail]
>Website http://www.abolition2000.org
>
>
>Join the Abolition-USA or Abolition-Global Caucus list serve to regularly
>receive updates about the Abolition movement.  Both caucus' also provide a
>forum for conversation on nuclear-related issues as well as they are used
>to post important articles and information pertaining to nuclear abolition.
>
>
>
>To subscribe to the Abolition Global Caucus, please do one of the
>following:
>
>1. Send a message to the list moderator at [e-mail]
>
>2. Visit the Abolition-caucus website at:
>Http://www.egroups.com/list/abolition-caucus/ and submit a membership form.
>
>3. Visit the Abolition 2000 website and submit a membership form.
>
>4. Send an e-mail to:  [e-mail]  (leave the
>subject line and body of the message blank).
>
>
>To post a message to the Abolition Global Caucus, send your message to:
>
>[e-mail]
>
>
>To subscribe to the Abolition-USA listerve, send a message (with no
>subject) to:
>[e-mail]
>In the body of the message, write:
>"subscribe abolition-usa" (do not include quotation marks)
>
>To post a message to the Abolition-USA list, mail your message to:
> [e-mail]
>
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
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>account you wish to be subscribed to:
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>
>
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>
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>For the fastest and easiest way to backup your files and, access them from
>
>anywhere. Try @backup Free for 30 days.  Click here for a chance to win a
>
>digital camera.
>http://click.egroups.com/1/337/1/_/91925/_/945744874
>
>-- Check out your group's private Chat room
>-- http://www.egroups.com/ChatPage?listName=abolition-caucus&m=1
>
Alice Slater
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE)
15 East 26th Street, Room 915
New York, NY 10010
tel:  [phone]
fax:  [phone]
email:  [e-mail]
http://www.gracelinks.org

GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty to
eliminate nuclear weapons.

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