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abolition-usa-digest      Tuesday, March 16 1999      Volume 01 : Number 090




----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 13:17:58 -0500
From: ASlater <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Fwd: Space Views Newsletter

>Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 18:34:49 -0500
>Subject: Space Views Newsletter
>To: [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],
> [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],
> [e-mail], [e-mail],
> [e-mail], [e-mail],
> [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail],
> [e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail]
>From: [e-mail] ([e-mail])
>
>
>GLOBAL NETWORK SPACE VIEWS NEWSLETTER       No. 4     March 15, 1999
>
>1)  GLOBAL NETWORK MEETING A SUCCESS:  The 8th General Membership Meeting
>of
>the Global Network (GN) was held in Darmstadt, Germany on March 5-6.
>People
>came from six different countries for the event.  Just prior to our
>business
>meeting, a conference (March 3-5) called "Space Use & Ethics" was held at
>the
>Darmstadt Technology University, organized by IANUS (Interdisciplinary
>Research Group on Science, Technology and Security) and German peace
>groups.
>The European Space Agency (ESA), which was supposed to send three
>representatives to the space ethics conference, canceled at the last
>minute.
>Informed speculation was that NASA had asked ESA to pull out.  The U.S.A.F.
>Space Command did send a team of representatives though, and they sat
>through
>and participated in two days of stimulating and vigorous discussions on a
>wide
>range of space issues.  A representative also came from the German
>Ministry of
>Defense.    If  you would like to see a copy of the GN general membership
>meeting minutes please send us an e-mail request.
>
>2)  GLOBAL NETWORK BOARD:  The GN membership elected a new Board of
>Directors
>for 1999-2000.  They are as follows:  Karl Grossman from New York
>(Convener);
>Dave Webb from England (Treasurer); Bruce Gagnon from Florida
>(Secretary/Coordinator); Regina Hagen from Germany; Bill Towe from North
>Carolina; Aurel Durat from Romania; Dr. Michio Kaku from New York; and
>Catherine Euler from England.
>
>3)  JUNE 12 CASSINI ACTIONS:  At the GN meeting it was agreed that the call
>for June 12 protest actions against the Cassini fly-by should be encouraged
>and supported worldwide.  Groups in England and Germany as well as the U.S.
>pledged to hold solidarity actions with the one being planned for Cape
>Canaveral on June 12.  If you plan to organize an action in your community
>please let us know ([e-mail]) so we can pass the word to other
>organizers and the media.  Cassini is set to do its Earth fly-by on August
>17,
>1999.
>
>4)  MEETING REQUESTED WITH KSC:  The GN has sent a letter to the Director
>of
>the Kennedy Space Center asking for a meeting to discuss the Cassini
>mission
>as well as the larger issue of weapons and nuclear power in space.  Along
>with
>the letter a list of "Space Objective & Demands" was sent.  Copies of the
>letter from the GN were sent to major media outlets.  A second letter to
>religious leaders in the space coast community of Florida, asking them to
>discuss the moral/ethical implications of U.S. space policy in their
>religious
>communities, will be sent out next.
>
>5)  UNISPACE III:  The United Nations Space Commission meets this July
>19-30
>in Vienna, Austria to discuss international space issues.  A delegation
>from
>the GN will attend and attempt to present papers at the event.  Plans are
>also
>underway for the GN to have a display at the conference and to pass out
>statements to the delegates.  It will be a major goal of the GN in the
>coming
>year to influence U.N. space policy.  We are deeply concerned that the U.S.
>will break the Outer Space Treaty (1967) with its deployments of the
>Ballistic
>Missile Defense System (BMD) and Anti-Satellite weapons (ASATS).  Also of
>concern is the Moon Treaty (1979), which the U.S. never signed, but forbids
>any nation from claiming ownership or putting military installations on the
>moon.  Visit the U.N. web site at:  www.un.or.at/oosa/unisp-3/progenda.html
>
>6)  LASER TESTS FUNDED:  The U.S. Pentagon on February 9 awarded an
>aerospace
>industry team made up of Boeing, Lockheed Martin and TRW a contract to
>work on
>a $3 billion space-based laser experiment.  The so-called "defensive"  BMD
>laser test program will consist of ground, flight and space experiments.
>Our
>concern is that any so-called "defensive" weapon in space could easily be
>used
>for offensive purposes thus fueling an arms race in space.
>
>7)  INTÆL GREENS SUPPORT:  Dr. Joan Russow, the national leader of the
>Canadian Green Party, has submitted a Cancel Cassini fly-by resolution to
>the
>Canadian Prime Minister.  Dr. Russow has also presented the resolution to
>the
>International Green Party Conference in New Delhi, India.
>
>8)  PROSPACE LOBBY:  On March 21-26 members of the group ProSpace America
>will
>descend on Washington D.C. lawmakers to push a policy agenda that promotes
>privatizing space operations and giving tax breaks to aerospace
>corporations.
>
>9)  KODIAK LAUNCH SITE:  Lockheed Martin and NASA are in final negotiations
>for a series of launches to begin in 2000 from the new spaceport at Kodiak
>Island, Alaska.  The launch site, being in an extremely remote location, is
>forcing speculation as to the kinds of launches that NASA plans there in
>the
>years ahead.
>
>10) GN MEMBERSHIP DUES:  Membership dues were set for 1999-2000 at the
>Global
>Network general meeting in Germany.  Groups and individuals are encouraged
>to
>pay what they can best afford within the sliding scale of $10 - $100.
>Those
>groups that join the GN will be listed on our organizational letterhead.
>Please send your dues check to the GN at PO Box 90083, Gainesville, Fl.
>32607,
>USA  as soon as possible if you wish to have your organization listed on
>the
>letterhead.
>
>11)  NEXT GN MEETING:  The next meeting of the GN will be held in
>mid-April,
>2000 in Washington D.C.  Events being considered will include a street
>protest, a one day educational conference, a general membership business
>meeting, and a lobby day.  More details later.
>
>Bruce K. Gagnon (Secretary/Coordinator)
>
Alice Slater
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE)
15 East 26th Street, Room 915
New York, NY 10010
tel:  [phone]
fax:  [phone]
email:  [e-mail]

GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty
to eliminate nuclear weapons.

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 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
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------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 13:31:06 -0500
From: ASlater <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) URGENT ALERT: STAR WARS

Dear Friends,
The Democrats are starting to fold on STAR WARS!!  Akaka of Hawaii, Ernest
F. Hollings of
South Carolina and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut have already said they
would vote for it!!  Please get to your Senators today and tell them to
oppose this folly.  If you live in Ct., Hawaii, or South Carolina make a
special effort to mobilize your members to tell those Senators to change
their mind before the vote.  If STAR WARS goes through, it will set back
nuclear abolition for generations.  Regards, Alice

6. Senate to Debate Missile Defense

By Tom Raum Associated Press, Monday, March 15, 1999

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990315/V000440-031599-idx.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Seeing support growing for missile-defense legislation,
Senate Democratic leaders are dropping an effort to block the measure.
Instead, they are searching for a compromise to keep it from becoming a
2000 campaign liability.

Missile tests by North Korea and Iran, and reports of possible Chinese
espionage at the Los Alamos, N.M., nuclear weapons laboratory, are being
cited by sponsors as even more justification to move quickly.

``North Korea has demonstrated there is a threat of a ballistic missile
attack that puts at risk some of the territory of the United States,'' said
Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss. ``Lack of a threat is no longer an excuse for
voting against a bill of this kind.''

The Senate opens debate today on the measure by Cochran and Sen. Daniel
Inouye, D-Hawaii, to commit the Pentagon to fielding a system to protect
the 50 states from a ballistic missile attack as soon as technologically
possible.

Democrats used procedural tactics last May and September to keep the
measure, subject of a White House veto threat, from even coming up. This
year, they're not even trying.

``We obviously have more support on the Democratic side than we had last
year,'' Cochran said in an interview last week.

Democrats concede the point. ``We just don't know what the final vote would
be,'' said Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, the senior Democrat on the Senate
Armed Services Committee and the bill's principal opponent.

Instead, Levin said he will work for passage of substitute legislation
designed to give the Clinton administration a little more flexibility while
seeking to work with Russia on modifications to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty.

Russian officials claim the Cochrane-Inouye bill violates the ABM treaty's
restrictions on anti-ballistic-missile defense systems. ``I'm hopeful we
can modify this language so we don't threaten to rip up this treaty,''
Levin said.

Adding to the changed atmosphere, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott,
R-Miss., and Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., are expected to name a
bipartisan delegation this week to meet with members of the Russian
parliament to try to find a voluntary way around the ABM problem.

A national system for shooting down incoming missiles was once almost
universally derided by Democrats, denounced as ``Star Wars'' when first
proposed by President Reagan in 1983.

But little political advantage can be gained these days from opposing a
missile defense, Senate Democratic officials suggest.

The bill is supported by all 55 Senate Republicans and at least three other
Democrats besides Inouye: Daniel Akaka of Hawaii, Ernest F. Hollings of
South Carolina and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. Two other Democrats,
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, have hinted they
might support it with some modifications.

A similar bill, by Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., and Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C.,
will be brought next week before the House, where it has wide support.

The legislation is at the center of a GOP attack on the administration's
national security policies. Republicans contend that lax policies and
technology transfers have helped China modernize its missile system.

Simple in its wording, the Cochran-Inouye bill would commit the United
States to deploy ``as soon as technologically possible'' a system against
``limited ballistic missile attack.''

But the White House says the measure could require a crash program for
developing an untrustworthy system. National security adviser Sandy Berger
- -- under attack from Republicans for not doing more to thwart Chinese
efforts to buy or steal American missile technology -- says he'll recommend
a veto if the legislation passes as drafted.

``We have not changed our position. We think that, simply put, the Cochran
bill is too simplistic a formula,'' said P.J. Crowley, a White House
spokesman.

Clinton proposed $6.6 billion for a missile defense system over the next
five years in the budget he submitted last month. But he put off a decision
on whether to field such a system until June 2000.

Republicans -- and some Democrats privately -- suggested that timing
principally benefits Vice President Al Gore, and they see no reason to
delay a decision until the middle of presidential campaign year.

There's one thing on which both supporters and critics of such a system
agree: It won't come cheap. Some $40 billion has already been spent over
the past

- -------------------------------

7
Alice Slater
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE)
15 East 26th Street, Room 915
New York, NY 10010
tel:  [phone]
fax:  [phone]
email:  [e-mail]

GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty
to eliminate nuclear weapons.

- -
 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
 "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your message.

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 12:00:48 -0800
From: "David Crockett Williams" <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) Russian Surprise Attack Risk?

I am curious as to what those more knowledgeable than I think about the
following report forwarded from another list, regarding whether these fears
of war on the US by Russia have valid basis in facts:

Russia and China Prepare for War -- Part 4
Russia May Launch a Surprise Attack Against US

Christopher Ruddy
March 12, 1999

Russia May Launch a Surprise Attack Against US

Since 1917, "capitalist warmongers" in the US and Europe have
been the principal targets of hatred by Russians and the Chinese.
Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, those campaigns of hate
subsided briefly, and authoritarian communists stepped out of the
spotlight. Today, with Russia reported in desperate economic
straits, the Russian people are again being told, "it's the fault of
America and Europe." Brutal communist leaders are again publicly
talking, dissent is again being banned, and hatred against the West is
soaring.

During the past year, my concerns about Russia have been greatly
increased as a result of an interview I conducted with Jeffrey
Nyquist -- an independent researcher on Russia and author of The
Origins of the Fourth World War.

Nyquist believes Russia has been planning a surprise nuclear attack
against the United States, and that this attack will come sooner
rather than later -- quite possibly within the next year if the US
continues on its present reckless course. I would have scoffed at
such suggestions had Nyquist not made such a convincing case and
demonstrated such a powerful intellect.

During our conversations, Nyquist listed signs that would indicate a
Russian attack was being planned.

NYQUIST'S STARTLING PREDICTIONS

In early 1998, Nyquist predicted that authorities in Russia would
deliberately implode their own economy to advance their political
and military agendas. There were several reasons. First, that would
divert attention from the theft of billions of dollars by government
officials from "privatized" companies, and provide a convenient
explanation why none of them were making any money. Second, by
engendering Russia's economic collapse and blaming the West, the
necessary psychological atmosphere for war against the US would
be created.

Another outcome of Russia's economic collapse, Nyquist said,
would be the emergence of a series of progressively stronger and
more militarist Russian leaders. Primakov -- Yeltsin's Prime
Minister -- perfectly fits Nyquist's prediction. He's a former
hard-line, anti-American KGB general.

Nyquist also predicted that Russia would ally with China. That, too,
has now taken place, as you'll see below.

Finally, Nyquist predicted that Russia would stockpile huge
quantities of food and other supplies for war, and begin moving
their nuclear weapons on to their naval ships where they are much
more difficult to monitor and deter. All of this has occurred.

SPY WARNS OF RUSSIAN WAR PLANS

Nyquist is not the only astute observer of Russia who believes
Russia may be preparing for war against the US. Stanislav Lunev --
the highest-ranking GRU (Russian military intelligence) officer ever
to defect from Russia -- also warns that Russia is preparing for war
against the United States.

Lunev's book Through the Eyes of the Enemy (published last
summer by Regnery) states categorically that the Cold War is not
over and that Russia continues to plan for a nuclear war. "Russia
remains terrified of the power of America, and Russian military
intelligence does everything it can prepare for a war that it considers
inevitable," he wrote. This war, Lunev details, would employ
nuclear, biological and chemical weapons against America.

RUSSIAN PLANS: KILL US LEADERS; USE BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS ALREADY IN US

Lunev explains war would begin with the infiltration of Russian
special operations troops into the US, who would kill top political
and military leaders. Lunev also warns that Russian GRU (military
intelligence) agents have already deposited, near key water
reservoirs, deadly poisons and toxins which would result in millions
of civilians being ravaged by disease. Lunev says, for instance, that
the Russians have determined that they could wipe out a significant
part of the population of Florida by polluting water sources in the
Carolinas.

Another part of Russia's plan, according to Lunev, is to deploy
suitcase nuclear bombs at strategic points throughout the US. Lunev
says he personally scouted a site in the Hudson Valley just above
New York City for one such suitcase nuke.

Lunev has also told me that the democracy movement in Russia
was a charade and part of "a plan" to get the West disarm --
achieving through deception what the Soviet Union was never able
to achieve militarily. Lunev explained that China was pursuing
parallel policies, absorbing as much Western aid and technology as
possible before a final confrontation, which Lunev regarded as
imminent.

RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC COLLAPSE INCREASES RISK OF
WAR

The collapse of Russia's economy greatly increased the chances of
war with the West. With 29 times Finland's population, Russia's
budget barely matches theirs. According to news reports, millions of
ordinary Russians are now struggling just to stay alive, selling family
heirlooms and chopping up their furniture for kindling.

Russia's political leaders and economic czars, of course, will never
admit that they and their failed totalitarian system are responsible
for this widespread misery, and increasingly the West is being
blamed.

This is particularly dangerous, because despite economic
desperation, Russia continues is still a nuclear superpower. Victor
Olove, director of Moscow's Center for Policy Studies, told the Los
Angeles Times, "People who have nuclear warheads in their hands
have not gotten their salaries for three or four months and are
literally hungry."

Some press reports show how close to war we have already come.
Britain's Panorama news program reported that in 1995 the Yeltsin
government came within minutes of a full nuclear attack on the
United States after Russian defense systems failed.

US DETROYS NUCLEAR ARSENAL, RUSSIAN ARSENAL
EXPANDS

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been
systematically destroying its nuclear arsenal. In 1991, the US had
approximately 30,000 strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Under
Clinton, that arsenal has fallen nearly 60%. In 1997, the United
States had only 12,500 (tactical and strategic) nuclear weapons. Of
these, only 8,750 were active, 2500 more were on reserve, and
1,250 were slated to be destroyed. Moreover, our nuclear arsenal
has a limited "shelf life," and year by year, more and more weapons
become unusable. The Clinton administration has only recently
taken belated steps to produce tritium, a necessary component for
the maintenance of nuclear weapons.

In contrast, the Russians may now have as many as 50,000
strategic and tactical nuclear weapons -- ranging from small suitcase
bombs to large warheads suitable for intercontinental ballistic
missiles (ICBM's). The lion's share of these weapons remain
targeted at the US. And Russia is quickly building even more
weapons.

Never before has the strategic nuclear balance been so greatly in
Russia's favor. From a military standpoint, this creates a unique
window of opportunity for Russia to launch a successful first-strike
against the United States at minimal cost to themselves.

"USE IT OT LOSE IT"

Like America's nuclear arsenal, Russia's is degrading as it gets older
and requires expensive, periodical servicing.

The Russian government is well aware of this problem. In a recent
report to the Duma (Russia's Congress), First Deputy Prime
Minister Yuri Masluyokov (a former Soviet military-industrial
planner) states that because of obsolescence, Russia's nuclear
arsenal will decline quickly, and Russia may "be able to field only
800 to 900 nuclear warheads seven years from now."

Because of Russia's economic problems, Russia may never again
enjoy the huge strategic advantage it now has over its old enemies
in the West. For die-hard communists, the huge, but temporary,
military advantage may represent an irresistible opportunity to "use
them before we lose them." Indeed, Bruce Blair, a well-known
liberal from the Brookings Institution, stated last summer in The
National Interest, "Russia's conventional forces have declined ...
and into this vacuum has rushed a growing reliance on nuclear
weapons -- including their first use in any serious conventional
conflict."

Recognizing the limited shelf-life of Russia's nuclear arsenal, Blair
adds, "The nuclear forces themselves have become vulnerable....
Consequently Russia today faces far stronger pressures to ?use or
lose' its nuclear arsenal than at any time since the early 1960s."

Y2K BUG MAY BE "TRIPWIRE" FOR WAR

Coinciding with the continuing degradation of Russia's nuclear
weapons are military problems they will soon experience as a result
of the Y2K (Year 2000 or Millennium) computer bug.

Like all modern strategic weapons, Russia's nuclear arsenal is
critically dependent upon computer technology. At the latest, by
January 2000 -- less than one year from now -- the millennium bug
may render that technology largely useless.

Briefly, the problem is that two digit year codes used by most
computer software will cause computers to misread the year 2000
as "00" or "1900." It sounds minor, but this computer glitch could
lead to widespread failure of many high-tech weapons systems,
including nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, radar and even tanks.

Even worse, the millennium bug is in billions of "embedded"
microprocessors buried deep inside missiles, tanks, satellites, and
nuclear reactors. (Imagine the cost of taking a satellite "into the
shop" for repairs or sending someone inside a nuclear reactor to
locate a defective chip!)

The US military is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to
correct its own huge Y2K problem. Russia, however, has neither
the money nor the manpower to correct millions of lines of faulty
code and replace millions of chips. Their official policy is "fix on
failure;" that is, they plan to do NOTHING to repair their systems
until they fail. My soon-to-be-published special report -- Y2K and
Russia: Impetus For Nuclear War? -- details the enormous Y2K
risks Russia is facing -- and Y2K's implications for you.

Another frightening possibility is that on January 1, 2000, Russia's
radar screens and early warning system could go blank or falsely
report incoming missiles. That could lead Russian military leaders to
believe the US has initiated an attack, and launch a counterattack.

The Y2K-related failure of Russia's early warning system could
even result in an automatic attack against the US. Most people in
the West don't realize it, but Russia has long had a "doomsday
defense system." This system is designed to enable Russia to
survive a US nuclear first strike and to launch a devastating
retaliation even if no commanders are left alive in Russia to issue
the orders. This system is designed to automatically launch nuclear
missiles at the US if an event occurs that the computer interprets as
a Western attack -- such as a loss of satellite and radar systems.
The default target of thousands of Russian strategic missiles are
cities in the United States and Europe.

Well aware of this problem, US military officials have
recommended that the US and Russia place observers in each
others' nuclear control rooms next December, to prevent an
accidental launch.

RUSSIA PREPARES FOR A FIRST STRIKE

An even more disturbing possibility has not been reported by the
press: That is the possibility that the Russian general staff -- which
is well aware of their Y2K and economic problems -- may have
already decided to strike the United States before their defense
systems fail on January 1, 2000.

Thus, in an extremely ominous sign, on December 17, 1997,
President Yeltsin, issued a 37-page policy statement, reneging on
previous pledges not to use nuclear weapons first.


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------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 16:15:52 -0500
From: ASlater <[e-mail]>
Subject: (abolition-usa) China Red Herring

Dear Friends,
Here's a letter I wrote to the NY Times editor.  Whatever information we=
 have
about collaboration between the weapons labs would be appreciated to=
 document
the fact that the nukeheads in our government are stirring the pot on a
non-issue.  Regards, Alice
                                       March 15, 1999

Editor, New York Times
BY FAX:  [phone]

The new stories about China stealing US nuclear secrets from Los Alamos is
just
another red herring to divert public debate on the critical issue at=
 hand--how
to fulfill our Non-Proliferation Treaty promise to move to the elimination=
 of
nuclear weapons.  China has repeatedly stated its support for a treaty to=
 ban
the bomb, most recently at the 1998 NPT Preparatory Committee Meeting, which
broke up in a shambles at midnight of the last day, because the US refused=
 to
consider a proposal merely to discuss nuclear disarmament.

Anti-nuclear activists have been well aware of the strange collaboration of
the
nuclear club=92s weapons designers with their frequent visits to each others
labs.  Your own report of March 12 revealed, that last year, 277 Chinese,=
 364
Russians and 115 Indian nationals visited or worked at Los Alamos, of whom=
 88
were allowed access to secure areas.  Our own Dr. Strangeloves have made
frequent visits to the Chinese and Russian weapons labs, presumably trading
information about their design prowess and new discoveries.   And despite=
 all
the alarm expressed about China stealing our secrets, on March 12, the
Washington Times reported that, =93the Pentagon said=85 that disclosures=
 about
Chinese spying at a US nuclear laboratory will not alter plans to bring a
group
of People's Liberation Army officers to a similar laboratory in New Mexico
this
year.=94

As a number of distinguished panels have concluded, including the National
Academy of Sciences and the Canberra Commission, the very possession of
nuclear
weapons by any one nation, is an invitation to other nations to acquire=
 them.=20
It=92s time to realize the promise of the cold war=92s end and begin=
 negotiations
on a treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons, just as the world has done for
chemical and biological weapons.  Nuclear design =93know-how=94 is out and h=
as
been
shared liberally all over the world.  The only thing that can now insure our
security against  Chinese missiles, is to take the Chinese up on their
offer to
negotiate a treaty. Russia has been sending countless signals that they=
 don=92t
want their large arsenal any longer.  We should also follow China=92s lead=
 in
declaring a policy of =93no-first-use=94 of nuclear weapons, which are NATO=
 allies
are now calling for.   Why is China=92s rational nuclear policy, compared to=
 US
cold war nuclear saber rattling, not discussed in the background stories on
this issue?

Sincerely,


Alice Slater, President

Alice Slater
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (GRACE)
15 East 26th Street, Room 915
New York, NY 10010
tel:  [phone]
fax:  [phone]
email:  [e-mail]

GRACE is a member of Abolition 2000, a global network working for a treaty
to eliminate nuclear weapons.

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 To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "[e-mail]"
 with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
 For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
 "help" to the same address.  Do not use quotes in your message.

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 16:23:32 EST
From: [e-mail]
Subject: Re: (abolition-usa) Russian Surprise Attack Risk?

I think this is essentially nonsense - conspiracy theory run riot.

David McReynolds

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------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Mar 1999 18:54:37 -0500
From: Stephen Young <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: (abolition-usa) Russian Surprise Attack Risk?

The text is a combination of lies, distortions, half-truths, and "facts" that do
not bear out under any circumstances.

Perhaps the most critical error is stating that Russia is moving its nukes to
naval forces. In fact, Russia at present can only deploy one or two submarines
at sea at any time (versus 8 to 11 for the US at all times, with 1,500 to 2,000
warheads).

In fact, you can make a much stronger case that the US is preparing to launch a
disarming first strike against Russia.

This does not mean that the situation is not dangerous, and that current US
policy is not pushing Russia toward a more nationalistic/anti-West policy. But
the idea that Russia is planning a massive attack before 2000 is ludicrous.

Stephen Young
BASIC

David Crockett Williams wrote:

> I am curious as to what those more knowledgeable than I think about the
> following report forwarded from another list, regarding whether these fears
> of war on the US by Russia have valid basis in facts:
>
> Russia and China Prepare for War -- Part 4
> Russia May Launch a Surprise Attack Against US
>
> Christopher Ruddy
> March 12, 1999
>
> Russia May Launch a Surprise Attack Against US
>
> Since 1917, "capitalist warmongers" in the US and Europe have
> been the principal targets of hatred by Russians and the Chinese.
> Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, those campaigns of hate
> subsided briefly, and authoritarian communists stepped out of the
> spotlight. Today, with Russia reported in desperate economic
> straits, the Russian people are again being told, "it's the fault of
> America and Europe." Brutal communist leaders are again publicly
> talking, dissent is again being banned, and hatred against the West is
> soaring.
>
> During the past year, my concerns about Russia have been greatly
> increased as a result of an interview I conducted with Jeffrey
> Nyquist -- an independent researcher on Russia and author of The
> Origins of the Fourth World War.
>
> Nyquist believes Russia has been planning a surprise nuclear attack
> against the United States, and that this attack will come sooner
> rather than later -- quite possibly within the next year if the US
> continues on its present reckless course. I would have scoffed at
> such suggestions had Nyquist not made such a convincing case and
> demonstrated such a powerful intellect.
>
> During our conversations, Nyquist listed signs that would indicate a
> Russian attack was being planned.
>
> NYQUIST'S STARTLING PREDICTIONS
>
> In early 1998, Nyquist predicted that authorities in Russia would
> deliberately implode their own economy to advance their political
> and military agendas. There were several reasons. First, that would
> divert attention from the theft of billions of dollars by government
> officials from "privatized" companies, and provide a convenient
> explanation why none of them were making any money. Second, by
> engendering Russia's economic collapse and blaming the West, the
> necessary psychological atmosphere for war against the US would
> be created.
>
> Another outcome of Russia's economic collapse, Nyquist said,
> would be the emergence of a series of progressively stronger and
> more militarist Russian leaders. Primakov -- Yeltsin's Prime
> Minister -- perfectly fits Nyquist's prediction. He's a former
> hard-line, anti-American KGB general.
>
> Nyquist also predicted that Russia would ally with China. That, too,
> has now taken place, as you'll see below.
>
> Finally, Nyquist predicted that Russia would stockpile huge
> quantities of food and other supplies for war, and begin moving
> their nuclear weapons on to their naval ships where they are much
> more difficult to monitor and deter. All of this has occurred.
>
> SPY WARNS OF RUSSIAN WAR PLANS
>
> Nyquist is not the only astute observer of Russia who believes
> Russia may be preparing for war against the US. Stanislav Lunev --
> the highest-ranking GRU (Russian military intelligence) officer ever
> to defect from Russia -- also warns that Russia is preparing for war
> against the United States.
>
> Lunev's book Through the Eyes of the Enemy (published last
> summer by Regnery) states categorically that the Cold War is not
> over and that Russia continues to plan for a nuclear war. "Russia
> remains terrified of the power of America, and Russian military
> intelligence does everything it can prepare for a war that it considers
> inevitable," he wrote. This war, Lunev details, would employ
> nuclear, biological and chemical weapons against America.
>
> RUSSIAN PLANS: KILL US LEADERS; USE BIOLOGICAL
> WEAPONS ALREADY IN US
>
> Lunev explains war would begin with the infiltration of Russian
> special operations troops into the US, who would kill top political
> and military leaders. Lunev also warns that Russian GRU (military
> intelligence) agents have already deposited, near key water
> reservoirs, deadly poisons and toxins which would result in millions
> of civilians being ravaged by disease. Lunev says, for instance, that
> the Russians have determined that they could wipe out a significant
> part of the population of Florida by polluting water sources in the
> Carolinas.
>
> Another part of Russia's plan, according to Lunev, is to deploy
> suitcase nuclear bombs at strategic points throughout the US. Lunev
> says he personally scouted a site in the Hudson Valley just above
> New York City for one such suitcase nuke.
>
> Lunev has also told me that the democracy movement in Russia
> was a charade and part of "a plan" to get the West disarm --
> achieving through deception what the Soviet Union was never able
> to achieve militarily. Lunev explained that China was pursuing
> parallel policies, absorbing as much Western aid and technology as
> possible before a final confrontation, which Lunev regarded as
> imminent.
>
> RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC COLLAPSE INCREASES RISK OF
> WAR
>
> The collapse of Russia's economy greatly increased the chances of
> war with the West. With 29 times Finland's population, Russia's
> budget barely matches theirs. According to news reports, millions of
> ordinary Russians are now struggling just to stay alive, selling family
> heirlooms and chopping up their furniture for kindling.
>
> Russia's political leaders and economic czars, of course, will never
> admit that they and their failed totalitarian system are responsible
> for this widespread misery, and increasingly the West is being
> blamed.
>
> This is particularly dangerous, because despite economic
> desperation, Russia continues is still a nuclear superpower. Victor
> Olove, director of Moscow's Center for Policy Studies, told the Los
> Angeles Times, "People who have nuclear warheads in their hands
> have not gotten their salaries for three or four months and are
> literally hungry."
>
> Some press reports show how close to war we have already come.
> Britain's Panorama news program reported that in 1995 the Yeltsin
> government came within minutes of a full nuclear attack on the
> United States after Russian defense systems failed.
>
> US DETROYS NUCLEAR ARSENAL, RUSSIAN ARSENAL
> EXPANDS
>
> Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been
> systematically destroying its nuclear arsenal. In 1991, the US had
> approximately 30,000 strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Under
> Clinton, that arsenal has fallen nearly 60%. In 1997, the United
> States had only 12,500 (tactical and strategic) nuclear weapons. Of
> these, only 8,750 were active, 2500 more were on reserve, and
> 1,250 were slated to be destroyed. Moreover, our nuclear arsenal
> has a limited "shelf life," and year by year, more and more weapons
> become unusable. The Clinton administration has only recently
> taken belated steps to produce tritium, a necessary component for
> the maintenance of nuclear weapons.
>
> In contrast, the Russians may now have as many as 50,000
> strategic and tactical nuclear weapons -- ranging from small suitcase
> bombs to large warheads suitable for intercontinental ballistic
> missiles (ICBM's). The lion's share of these weapons remain
> targeted at the US. And Russia is quickly building even more
> weapons.
>
> Never before has the strategic nuclear balance been so greatly in
> Russia's favor. From a military standpoint, this creates a unique
> window of opportunity for Russia to launch a successful first-strike
> against the United States at minimal cost to themselves.
>
> "USE IT OT LOSE IT"
>
> Like America's nuclear arsenal, Russia's is degrading as it gets older
> and requires expensive, periodical servicing.
>
> The Russian government is well aware of this problem. In a recent
> report to the Duma (Russia's Congress), First Deputy Prime
> Minister Yuri Masluyokov (a former Soviet military-industrial
> planner) states that because of obsolescence, Russia's nuclear
> arsenal will decline quickly, and Russia may "be able to field only
> 800 to 900 nuclear warheads seven years from now."
>
> Because of Russia's economic problems, Russia may never again
> enjoy the huge strategic advantage it now has over its old enemies
> in the West. For die-hard communists, the huge, but temporary,
> military advantage may represent an irresistible opportunity to "use
> them before we lose them." Indeed, Bruce Blair, a well-known
> liberal from the Brookings Institution, stated last summer in The
> National Interest, "Russia's conventional forces have declined ...
> and into this vacuum has rushed a growing reliance on nuclear
> weapons -- including their first use in any serious conventional
> conflict."
>
> Recognizing the limited shelf-life of Russia's nuclear arsenal, Blair
> adds, "The nuclear forces themselves have become vulnerable....
> Consequently Russia today faces far stronger pressures to ?use or
> lose' its nuclear arsenal than at any time since the early 1960s."
>
> Y2K BUG MAY BE "TRIPWIRE" FOR WAR
>
> Coinciding with the continuing degradation of Russia's nuclear
> weapons are military problems they will soon experience as a result
> of the Y2K (Year 2000 or Millennium) computer bug.
>
> Like all modern strategic weapons, Russia's nuclear arsenal is
> critically dependent upon computer technology. At the latest, by
> January 2000 -- less than one year from now -- the millennium bug
> may render that technology largely useless.
>
> Briefly, the problem is that two digit year codes used by most
> computer software will cause computers to misread the year 2000
> as "00" or "1900." It sounds minor, but this computer glitch could
> lead to widespread failure of many high-tech weapons systems,
> including nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, radar and even tanks.
>
> Even worse, the millennium bug is in billions of "embedded"
> microprocessors buried deep inside missiles, tanks, satellites, and
> nuclear reactors. (Imagine the cost of taking a satellite "into the
> shop" for repairs or sending someone inside a nuclear reactor to
> locate a defective chip!)
>
> The US military is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to
> correct its own huge Y2K problem. Russia, however, has neither
> the money nor the manpower to correct millions of lines of faulty
> code and replace millions of chips. Their official policy is "fix on
> failure;" that is, they plan to do NOTHING to repair their systems
> until they fail. My soon-to-be-published special report -- Y2K and
> Russia: Impetus For Nuclear War? -- details the enormous Y2K
> risks Russia is facing -- and Y2K's implications for you.
>
> Another frightening possibility is that on January 1, 2000, Russia's
> radar screens and early warning system could go blank or falsely
> report incoming missiles. That could lead Russian military leaders to
> believe the US has initiated an attack, and launch a counterattack.
>
> The Y2K-related failure of Russia's early warning system could
> even result in an automatic attack against the US. Most people in
> the West don't realize it, but Russia has long had a "doomsday
> defense system." This system is designed to enable Russia to
> survive a US nuclear first strike and to launch a devastating
> retaliation even if no commanders are left alive in Russia to issue
> the orders. This system is designed to automatically launch nuclear
> missiles at the US if an event occurs that the computer interprets as
> a Western attack -- such as a loss of satellite and radar systems.
> The default target of thousands of Russian strategic missiles are
> cities in the United States and Europe.
>
> Well aware of this problem, US military officials have
> recommended that the US and Russia place observers in each
> others' nuclear control rooms next December, to prevent an
> accidental launch.
>
> RUSSIA PREPARES FOR A FIRST STRIKE
>
> An even more disturbing possibility has not been reported by the
> press: That is the possibility that the Russian general staff -- which
> is well aware of their Y2K and economic problems -- may have
> already decided to strike the United States before their defense
> systems fail on January 1, 2000.
>
> Thus, in an extremely ominous sign, on December 17, 1997,
> President Yeltsin, issued a 37-page policy statement, reneging on
> previous pledges not to use nuclear weapons first.
>
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