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20140423RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
23/1306Z from Region 2035 (S13W85). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr) and
likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at
23/0123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1727Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1605Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 40/30/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 136
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/30/05