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20140217RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0304Z from Region 1977 (S10W16). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
day one (18 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
442 km/s at 17/1655Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1856Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 60/45/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 152
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 145/135/135
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05