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19881226RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 361
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 26 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5292 (S17E20)
PRODUCED AN M6/1B AT 26/2043Z. VERY LITTLE RADIO EMISSION WAS
OBSERVED WITH THE FLARE. REGION 5292 EVOLVED RAPIDLY DURING
THE PERIOD WITH DRAMATIC INCREASES IN AREA AND MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 26/2022Z.
REGION 5290 (N22E10) GREW SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE WEST LIMB OUTER CORONA CONTINUED TO BE DISTURBED - THE
LATEST MASS EJECTION REPORTED BY THE SMM CORONAGRAPH WAS
24/1230-1500Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMB.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AS WITH THE M6
FLARE TODAY, ISOLATED MID LEVEL CLASS M FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOULD THE CURRENT GROWTH TREND CONTINUE IN REGION 5292,
MID LEVEL M AND HIGHER FLARES SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY ACTIVE WITH PERIODS AT
MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE AT GENERALLY ACTIVE LEVELS FOR 27 DEC.
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 28
DEC, CALMING TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ON 29 DEC.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 DEC-29 DEC
CLASS M 80/80/80
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 05/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 26 DEC 201
PREDICTED 27 DEC-29 DEC 194/188/180
90 DAY MEAN 26 DEC 175
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 DEC 026/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 DEC 027/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 DEC-29 DEC 018/018-012/015-008/013