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19881223RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 358
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 23 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5280 (N25W53)
PRODUCED AN M5/1N FLARE AT 22/2326Z WITH STRONG TYPE II AND
MODERATE TYPE IV EMISSIONS. REGION 5275 (S33W87) PRODUCED AN
M1/SF FLARE AT 23/0859Z WITH A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND AN
M1 AT 23/1443Z WITH A TYPE II AND SPRAY TO .51R ABOVE THE
LIMB. MOST REGIONS CONTINUE A SLOW DECAY. AT LEAST 6 CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
LIMBS SINCE 22/1900Z. A CORONAL HOLE, NEWLY FORMED FROM LAST
ROTATION, IS CENTERED NEAR S14E02 WITH ITS LEADING EDGE NEAR
W14.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE AT A GENERALLY MODERATE LEVEL FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE
FREQUENCY OF M CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AS WESTERN
HEMISPHERE REGIONS TRANSIT THE LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED FOR TODAY FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR 24 AND 25
DEC. ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING,
ARE FORECAST FOR 26 DEC IN RESPONSE TO THE CORONAL HOLE NOW
CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL MERIDIAN.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 DEC-26 DEC
CLASS M 70/60/50
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 23 DEC 245
PREDICTED 24 DEC-26 DEC 236/226/218
90 DAY MEAN 23 DEC 173
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 DEC 011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 DEC 005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 DEC-26 DEC 010/012-015/020-020/025