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19881219RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 354
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5279 (N23W39)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 19/0047Z. REGION 5285 (N22E63)
PRODUCED AN M1/SN FLARE AT 19/1850Z. NO SIGNIFICANT RADIO
EMISSIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH EITHER OF THESE EVENTS. REGION
5278 (N27W09) WAS QUIET DURING THE PERIOD DESPITE ITS COMPLEX
STRUCTURE; IT RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5287 (N17E01) EMERGED TODAY
AND ENTERED A VERY RAPID GROWTH PHASE. THUS FAR THE REGION HAS
BEEN QUIET.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 5278 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
M- AND X-CLASS ACTIVITY. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
REGIONS 5273 (S31W57), 5279, 5280 (N27E04), 5285, AND 5287.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MINOR STORMING IS PROBABLY
RELATED TO THE X4 FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 16 DECEMBER.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MINOR STORMING
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE X1/3B
FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 18 DECEMBER.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 DEC-22 DEC
CLASS M 80/80/80
CLASS X 40/40/40
PROTON 40/40/40
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 19 DEC 249
PREDICTED 20 DEC-22 DEC 253/257/260
90 DAY MEAN 19 DEC 170
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 DEC 023/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 DEC 017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 DEC-22 DEC 030/028-025/022-020/018