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19881215RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 350
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 15 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5278 (N26E44)
PRODUCED AN X1/1N FLARE AT 0509Z. THE EVENT LASTED JUST OVER
TWO HOURS AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT RADIO BURSTS,
INCLUDING A TENFLARE, A STRONG TYPE II SWEEP, AND A TYPE IV
SWEEP. THE ONLY OTHER CLASS M OR GREATER FLARE WAS AN M1
AT 0729Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL
C-CLASS FLARES WERE PRODUCED WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM 5279
(N21E10) AND 5273 (S32W09). THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK
AND LIMBS WERE STABLE AND QUIET.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR X-CLASS FLARES OR
PROTON EVENT PRODUCING FLARES. REGION 5278 CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR M-CLASS OR GREATER FLARES, AND REGIONS
5273 AND 5279 ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF RAISING ACTIVITY TO MODERATE
LEVELS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH SOME
BRIEF ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO ATTAIN ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS IN RESPONSE TO TODAY'S X-CLASS X-RAY EVENT. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TOMORROW, REACH PEAK
INTENSITY ON THE SECOND DAY, AND SUBSIDE LATE ON THE THIRD DAY.
A PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR MID-DAY TOMORROW IN
RESPONSE TO THE FLARE AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM OF
ABOUT 50 PFU LATE TOMORROW.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 DEC-18 DEC
CLASS M 85/85/85
CLASS X 20/20/20
PROTON 20/20/20
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 15 DEC 219
PREDICTED 16 DEC-18 DEC 218/213/208
90 DAY MEAN 15 DEC 165
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 DEC 012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 DEC 010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 DEC-18 DEC 020/018-035/030-020/018