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19881202RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 337
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5262 (S14E07) GREW
MORE MAGNETICALLY COMPLICATED, BUT PRODUCED ONLY C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES. REGION 5254 (S17W24) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY, BUT WAS
STILL MAGNETICALLY COMPLICATED. REGION 5261 (N19E35) PRODUCED
MANY C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT RADIO
PARAMETERS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY DECREASES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
CLASS M 30/30/30
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 02 DEC 154
PREDICTED 03 DEC-05 DEC 154/155/156
90 DAY MEAN 02 DEC 159
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 DEC 004/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC 014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC 010/012-010/015-010/015