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19881127RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 332
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 27 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5254 (S19E42)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 26/2342Z AND REGION 5241 (N29W94)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 27/0829Z. THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT
RADIO EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER OF THESE FLARES. A
TYPE II RADIO SWEEP BURST WAS DETECTED AT 27/0219Z IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C-CLASS SUBFLARE FROM REGION 5251 (N19E01).
THREE NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: 5256 (N23E02), A SIMPLE
BIPOLE WHICH WAS FORMERLY CONSIDERED AS THE TRAILER PORTION
OF 5251, 5257 (S17W08), A SMALL UNIPOLE, AND 5258 (N13E81), AN
H-TYPE GROUP WHICH MAY BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 5218.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 5254 RETAINS A MODERATE LEVEL OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INTERVAL OF ACTIVE LEVELS
OCCURRED MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 NOV-30 NOV
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 27 NOV 145
PREDICTED 28 NOV-30 NOV 146/149/151
90 DAY MEAN 27 NOV 161
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 NOV 019/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 NOV 010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 NOV-30 NOV 010/010-015/015-015/015