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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 279
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 05 OCT 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5171
(S26W45) PRODUCED THE ONLY M-CLASS FLARE OF THE PAST 24 HOURS,
A 1B/M3 REACHING A MAXIMUM AT 05/0621Z. THIS REGION HAS SHOWN
CONTINUED SIGNS OF SIMPLIFICATION. NEW REGIONS NUMBERED TODAY-
5180 (N14E69) AND 5181 (N18W05), BOTH SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM REGIONS 5168 (N21W84), 5171, AND 5177 (N24E47). THE
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLARES FROM REGION 5171 HAS DECLINED.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOLLOWING A SUDDEN IMPULSE OBSERVED AT BOULDER
AT 04/2020Z. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO
STORM LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND AT ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 05 OCT 189
PREDICTED 06 OCT-08 OCT 185/175/170
90 DAY MEAN 05 OCT 154
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT 007/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT 020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT 020/040-015/030-015/025