home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
warehouse
/
1988_RSGA.tar.gz
/
1988_RSGA.tar
/
1988_RSGA
/
19880922RSGA.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2009-06-10
|
2KB
|
45 lines
FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 266
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5159 (N27E29)
PRODUCED AN M2/0F FLARE WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 220808Z. THIS
REGION WITH ITS IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREA TOWARDS THE EAST LIMB
PROVIDED MOST OF THE OVERALL ACTIVITY. A CME OCCURRED AT 220212Z
FROM THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5159 AND THAT NORTHEAST SECTOR'S GROUPS PROVIDE A
SLIGHT TO FAIR CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY. THEY ALSO PROVIDE
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY AND/OR PROTON PRODUCING
FLARES. THE ENHANCED BACKGROUND SHOULD NOW STAY ELEVATED FOR
THEIR TRANSIENT OF THE DISK.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES, AND A MINOR
STORM CONDITION OCCURRED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BE THE RESULT OF FLARES AND AN
ISOLATED WEAK CORONAL HOLE NEAR THE EQUATOR.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM TO ACTIVE LEVELS THE FIRST DAY, AS
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE ENDS. THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR ABOVE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO
THE 32 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED FROM THE DISK, NEAR
N48W09 BEFORE 21/1431Z SEP. THIS EVENT MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE CME FROM THE WESTNORTHWEST LIMB AT 210020Z.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 SEP-25 SEP
CLASS M 35/35/35
CLASS X 07/07/07
PROTON 07/07/07
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 22 SEP 178
PREDICTED 23 SEP-25 SEP 186/194/198
90 DAY MEAN 22 SEP 153
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP 010/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP 018/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP 016/035-025/025-020/030