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19880911RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 255
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 11 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NEW REGION 5148
(S10E70) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AS A D-TYPE SUNSPOT
GROUP. THIS REGION MAY BE THE SOURCE OF THE CORONAL YELLOW
LINE EMISSION REPORTED IN SDF 252.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM
LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TO BE THE RESULT OF CORONAL
HOLE EFFECTS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS ON 12 SEPTEMBER AND
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THEREAFTER.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
CLASS M 10/10/10
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 11 SEP 120
PREDICTED 12 SEP-14 SEP 124/128/128
90 DAY MEAN 11 SEP 150
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP 008/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP 025/048
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP 018/035-010/025-007/020