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19880908RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 252
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 08 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW TO MODERATE. REGION
5131 (S23W85) PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS, AN M2/1N AT 08/1241Z AND AN M1/SN AT 08/1847Z.
THE SECOND M-CLASS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO
SWEEP AND A TENFLARE OF 150 SFU. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO
DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, REGION 5143 (S14E32) AND
REGION 5144 (N15E83). BOTH ARE CURRENTLY SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. ANOTHER ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE
FROM REGION 5131 AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. CORONAL
DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A LARGE ACTIVE REGION NEARING
THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON THE SECOND DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
CLASS M 50/01/01
CLASS X 10/01/01
PROTON 10/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 08 SEP 136
PREDICTED 09 SEP-11 SEP 125/125/128
90 DAY MEAN 08 SEP 150
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP 005/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP 005/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP 010/015-015/020-018/030