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19880905RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 249
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 05 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5131 (S20W44)
PRODUCED A FEW C-CLASS FLARES TODAY, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS
A C4/1F AT 1835Z. THE REGION STARTED TO DECAY NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. REGION 5126 (S21W80) PRODUCED SURGE ACTIVITY AS IT
APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. REGION 5137 (S20E62) ALSO PRODUCED
SURGE ACTIVITY ON THE EAST LIMB. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF REGIONS
5139 AND 5134 INDICATED THAT THESE SPOTS CONSTITUTE A SINGLE
REGION: THE ENTIRE GROUP IS NOW LABELED REGION 5134 (N34E54).
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS
FROM REGION 5131.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND WAS
QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
CLASS M 10/10/10
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 05 SEP 163
PREDICTED 06 SEP-08 SEP 154/143/130
90 DAY MEAN 05 SEP 151
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP 008/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP 005/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP 007/018-007/015-012/022