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19880817RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 230
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 17 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGIONS 5108
(S20W47) AND 5105 (N16W59) EACH PRODUCED ONE OF THE TWO
C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, A C1.6
AT 17/0014UT (RGN 5108) AND A C1.2 AT 17/1409UT (RGN 5105).
REGION 5106 (N24W52) ALSO PRODUCED A FEW OPTICAL SUBFLARES
BUT ALL WERE LESS THAN C-CLASS IN X-RAY OUTPUT. REGIONS
5105 AND 5106 CONTINUED TO DECAY SLOWLY, WHEREAS REGION 5108
DEVELOPED A FEW NEW SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 5105, 5106,
AND 5108. THERE IS ONLY A REMOTE CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST
DID NOT MATERIALIZE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 AUG-20 AUG
CLASS M 05/05/05
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 17 AUG 138
PREDICTED 18 AUG-20 AUG 135/130/130
90 DAY MEAN 17 AUG 147
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG 009/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG 005/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG 015/025-012/023-010/022