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19880815RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 228
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 15 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY TWO C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, A C1.0
FROM REGION 5106 (N24W26) AT 15/0157UT AND A C1.1 FROM REGION
5105 (N16W33) AT 15/2048UT. BOTH REGIONS HAVE SHOWN WHITE LIGHT
AND H-ALPHA DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY. SMALL SUBFLARES WERE ALSO
OBSERVED IN REGIONS 5107 (N33W35) AND 5108 (S21W22). NEW REGION
5113 (S19W11) EMERGED AS A SMALL UNIPOLAR SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY FROM
THE REGIONS PRESENTLY ON THE DISK. OLD REGION 5084 (S22, L-359
CLASS/AREA EKI/610 ON 29 JULY) IS DUE AT THE EAST LIMB LATE
ON 18 AUGUST. THIS REGION PRODUCED MODERATE LEVELS OF
ACTIVITY LAST ROTATION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE SOURCE
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNKNOWN.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND MOSTLY
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
CLASS M 05/05/05
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 15 AUG 140
PREDICTED 16 AUG-18 AUG 136/134/132
90 DAY MEAN 15 AUG 146
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG 020/034
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG 016/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG 015/028-015/026-012/026