home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
warehouse
/
1988_RSGA.tar.gz
/
1988_RSGA.tar
/
1988_RSGA
/
19880810RSGA.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2009-06-10
|
2KB
|
50 lines
FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 223
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 10 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
REGIONS 5099 (N23W12), 5101 (S14W68), 5105 (N16E33), AND 5106
(N22E36). THE WEAK DELTA PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED IN REGION 5099 IS
NO LONGER PRESENT. STACKED REGIONS 5105 AND 5106 NEARLY DOUBLED
IN SIZE SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 5092 (N29) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE
SURGE ACTIVITY ON THE WEST LIMB AS IT ROTATED OUT OF VIEW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY LOW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS.
THE CONFIGURATION AND GROWTH OF REGIONS 5105 AND 5106 COULD
BE A MECHANISM FOR BUILDING UP MAGNETIC SHEAR. OTHER POSSIBLE
SOURCES OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY INCLUDE REGION 5101 WHICH APPEARS
TO HAVE SOME NEW FLUX EMERGING, AND REGION 5099 WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED MAGNETICALLY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENCHANCED ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED EARLY
IN THE DAY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/0130Z WITH REPORTS OF STORM
LEVEL ACTIVITY AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE ON 11-12 AUGUST IN RESPONSE TO
THE FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED ON 08 AUGUST. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH ON THE THIRD DAY TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS
WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 AUG-13 AUG
CLASS M 30/30/30
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 10 AUG 180
PREDICTED 11 AUG-13 AUG 174/170/166
90 DAY MEAN 10 AUG 143
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG 014/040
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG 006/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG 018/025-018/022-010/020