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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 221
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 08 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5092 (N27W75)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 08/0810Z WITH NO ASSOCIATED RADIO BURSTS.
REGION 5101 (S14W40) CONTINUED TO EMERGE RAPIDLY AND HAS BEEN
REMARKABLE IN ITS TOTAL LACK OF FLARE PRODUCTION. REGION 5099
(N22E17) DOUBLED IN SIZE DURING THE PERIOD AND BEGAN TO PRODUCE
CLASS C FLARES. A LARGE FILAMENT, WHICH AT THIS TIME WOULD HAVE
BEEN LOCATED BETWEEN S38W39-S25W65, ERUPTED NEAR 08/1018Z. A
SLOW CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED BY THE SOLAR MAXIMUM
MISSION AT THAT TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FIELD OF
VIEW OF THE CORONAGRAPH. REGIONS 5107 (N32E53) AND 5108 (S20E68)
WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
MODERATE. REGIONS 5092, 5101, 5099, AND 5105 APPEAR CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED CLASS M FLARES. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE
REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. AT HIGH LATITUDES, THE FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY
UNSETTLED WITH BRIEF PERIODS AT ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE MID LATITUDE FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. HIGH LATITUDE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED. THE LARGE
FILAMENT WHICH ERUPTED TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
EARTH.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 AUG-11 AUG
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 08 AUG 181
PREDICTED 09 AUG-11 AUG 185/185/178
90 DAY MEAN 08 AUG 141
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 AUG 006/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 AUG 004/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 AUG-11 AUG 007/012-007/012-010/015