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19880801RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 214
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 01 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5092
(N28E11) PRODUCED AN M2/1B FLARE AT 01/0632 UT THAT WAS ACCOM-
PANIED BY A STRONG TYPE II SWEEP AND OPTICAL PARALLEL RIBBONS.
FLARE DURATION EXCEEDED 90 MINUTES. REGION 5092 REMAINED
MOSTLY STABLE IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, BUT HAS SIMPLIFIED
IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK WAS
GENERALLY STABLE ALTHOUGH THE 10.7 CM FLUX DECREASED SIGNIFI-
CANTLY FROM YESTERDAY'S VALUE. A FILAMENT LOCATED BETWEEN
S17W01 AND S06W08 ON JULY 31/1452 UT HAD DISAPPEARED BY 1302 UT
TODAY. NO LIMB ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5092 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
FLARES FROM 5084 (S21W43) AND 5090 (N14W42).
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. PERIODS AT ACTIVE
LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH GEOMAGNETIC LATITUDES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE LONG DURATION FLARE AND FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE TODAY.
AT HIGH GEOMAGNETIC LATITUDES, GENERALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
CLASS M 65/65/65
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 01 AUG 176
PREDICTED 02 AUG-04 AUG 170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN 01 AUG 137
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL 009/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG 010/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG 010/020-010/020-015/018