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19880722RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 204
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5075
(S22W64) CONTINUED TO DECAY. THIS REGION REMAINS AT THE SAME
ACTIVITY LEVEL, PRODUCING ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES AND C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENTS. THE REGION RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LONG DURATION
X-RAY FLARES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN NUMBERED 5084
(S18E90). THIS REGION IS JUST BEYOND THE EAST LIMB AND SHOULD
COME INTO VIEW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST FLARE
PRODUCED BY THIS REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS A C7.3
AT 22/1124UT. NEW REGION 5085 (N12E74) APPEARS TO BE THE
LEADER SPOTS OF OLD REGION 5062 (N14, L-002). THIS REGION
HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE ITS APPEARANCE ON THE DISK. NEW REGION
5086 (S31E18) EMERGED AS A SMALL UNIPOLAR SPOT GROUP.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 5084 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE
FOR ENERGETIC ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND AT
ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 22 JUL 137
PREDICTED 23 JUL-25 JUL 138/140/145
90 DAY MEAN 22 JUL 131
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL 027/065
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL 021/047
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL 018/035-015/026-010/020