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19880719RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 201
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 JUL 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5075 (S21W27)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES: THE LARGEST OF THESE
WAS A C9.4/1N AT 0037Z. THE REGION IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY
DECAY. A LONG DURATION X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED FROM ABOUT
0400Z TO 1500Z WITH A MAXIMUM FLUX OF ABOUT C5 AT APPROXIMATELY
0700Z. NO CORRESPONDING OPTICAL SIGNATURE OF THE EVENT WAS
OBSERVED. REGION 5071 (N24W86) IS PRODUCING ACTIVE SURGING AS
IT ROTATES FROM VIEW. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE
QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM
REGION 5075.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED
WITH A PERIOD OF ACTIVE TO STORM CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0130Z
AND 0730Z
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THE FIRST TWO DAYS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ENCHANCED
DUE TO EFFECTS OF A CORONAL HOLE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUL-22 JUL
CLASS M 30/30/30
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 19 JUL 138
PREDICTED 20 JUL-22 JUL 135/138/150
90 DAY MEAN 19 JUL 131
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL 012/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL 010/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL 012/025-012/025-010/020