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19880625RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 177
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 25 JUN 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. SEVERAL M-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM REGION
5047 (S17W69) AND NEW REGION 5060 (S22E75). REGION 5047
HAS ONLY PRODUCED LOW LEVEL M-CLASS ACTIVITY SINCE YESTERDAY'S
X-CLASS FLARES; HOWEVER, THIS REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE DIMINISHED IN COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 5060 IS ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST LIMB AS A LARGE COMPLEX SPOT GROUP.
THIS REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AT LEAST TWO M-CLASS FLARES
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST BEING AN M6/SB LIMB
FLARE REACHING A MAXIMUM AT 25/1647UT. MORE OF THIS REGION
SHOULD ROTATE INTO VIEW BY TOMORROW. REGION 5051 (N36W73)
PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES SINCE YESTERDAY. OTHER REGIONS WERE
QUIET.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 5047 RETAINS POTENTIAL FOR X-CLASS
X-RAY ACTIVITY. M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM
REGION 5060, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
THIS REGION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY
ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENT,
FORECAST AS A RESULT OF YESTERDAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY, HAS NOT
YET ARRIVED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AS A RESULT OF
THE RECENT SOLAR ACTIVITY.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 JUN-28 JUN
CLASS M 95/95/95
CLASS X 50/50/50
PROTON 50/50/50
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 25 JUN 150
PREDICTED 26 JUN-28 JUN 145/135/130
90 DAY MEAN 25 JUN 124
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUN 025/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUN 020/040
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUN-28 JUN 020/050-030/065-016/028