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19880608RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 160
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 08 JUN 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NUMEROUS SUBFLARES
WERE OBSERVED FROM A VARIETY OF REGIONS DURING THE PERIOD. THE
LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C2/SF FLARE AT 08/1635Z FROM REGION
5032 (N19W58). MINOR RADIO EMISSIONS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT.
REGION 5036 (S17E31) DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AND BEGAN SUBFLARING, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THUS FAR NO SIGNIFICANT X-RAY OR RADIO
EMISSIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION. MORE MODEST
RATES OF GROWTH WERE OBSERVED WITHIN REGIONS 5038 (S25W62) AND
5040 (N27W35). NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5042 (S17W05) EMERGED
AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5036,
ESPECIALLY IF ITS PRESENT RATE OF GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
GENERALLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 02/02/02
PROTON 02/02/02
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 08 JUN 163
PREDICTED 09 JUN-11 JUN 165/166/167
90 DAY MEAN 08 JUN 122
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN 008/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN 007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN 010/018-007/018-010/018